and i like the oak street acquisition. >> bhp australian mining company, copper, coal, iron. it's very tied to china. 9.6% yield. >> activision. it wasn't news the brits would come out and say we don't want it. i still think it's out of value. >> good weekend? everybody else have a good weekend. i will see you in overtime. >> don't underestimate the american consumer. sentiment improving again, continued resiliency despite rising rates and the names she is buying because of it. from buying to renting the building, what it all means for prices, inflation and housing stock. and as we count down to the

super bowl, a company set to spend big on ads this year. will it be a repeat of last year? >> we begin with today's markets. >> the numbers are pretty flat right now in the broader s&p 500. just about flat on the session right now, down about two points. the dow industrial of about 130. for the s&p 500, just to give you an idea of the range, the highs of the session we were up roughly eight or nine points. with regard to the week that was in markets, there is only one sector in the green right now for the week. and that is energy. because oil prices have risen, albeit off a lower base but still, you can see the energy

sector about 4% up. exxon mobil shares about 6%. if i was there, i would draw a big old start. it did hit a record try in trading. oil prices up on russian headlines, it will look to cut production by half 1 million barrels in march. and three of the most influential stocks on the markets decline have been in key sectors. meta-platforms down to 6%, alphabet shares down to 10%. those percentage declines have equated into roughly 218 billion dollars of lost market value in just those three stocks alone with 129 of that from alphabet. almost the entire market cap of shell oil and more than the

market cap of disney. >> we will have a lot more on that later on. let's turn now to the curious case of the american consumer. after an odd week of reports. we have travel and experiences, world caribbean reporting record booking. mgm seen big jumps in occupancy rates and revenue. but expedia had a big mess. also a disappointing report. higher income customers are still holding up. we also saw that with cody posting 40% sales growth. tyson and unilever saw sales fall, and kellogg and pepsi were still bright spots. what exactly is the state of the consumer? and how should you be positioned right now?

why do you see ongoing resilience? >> good afternoon, good to see you again. the consumer situation is a confusing one. on the one hand, we are still seeing pretty good resilience at the low-end of the consumer market. target has some inventory problems they are working for but ultimately, consumers they need to save money are shifting down, and folks at the high end which really aren't seeing a lot of budget problems are still continuing to spend. overall, the big number that investors need to be aware of is disposable income adjusted for inflation. it has been rising for the last several months. not because wages are keeping ahead of inflation but because more people are employed. so you have this increase, they

are getting paid, the disposable income is up and that lies behind some of the consumer resilience we are seeing. >> you laid it out perfectly, it is such a mixed bag of commentary. when it comes down to is the job market. they are so hyper focused on the labor component. if you take a look at the way things are shaping up, we are seeing inflation ease in certain parts of the core. if that does translate into more discretionary income, you might have seen a process take place with regards to some of these. >> and look at the report this morning. >> right. the dna is to spend. we are a consumer spending economy.

>> just to get specific, casey's general, all three of those are up over the past year. >> target has had a big inventory problem. the pattern of consumer spending really did shift. they have too many discretionary goods, they needed to shift that over. so they took a big hit. investors are saying, prove to us that you solved this problem. the stock has languished in the wake of that but i do think they are going to see pretty resilient spending. plus they have a pretty decent dividend. there are other places investors should look to get through this, more diversified and away from the consumer. infrastructure, defense is a good place to be. a lot of support, all of those qualify.

about how much market cap we have lost, what would you do with google, how do you perceive the market and flows. >> it's a really challenging time for sector growth. for good reason. earning is coming down, growth is accelerating. that is an area of the economy that is facing economy in some places. cloud is still in demand. investors really have to be the long-term focus. they continue to like microsoft, amazon, we are group nervous about the regulatory issues and competition emerging. but ultimately they still on the search market and we think they will be able to use the

chat bot. you have to have a long-term focus. >> the economic focus is big. because what you've seen is a lot of companies and ceos start to manage expectations lower. they could be doing so for the coming weeks and months. if that lower bar is able to be cleared, there might be a case to be made if the terminal rate for the funds is coming up in the next few months. that there is a catalyst, a call to action for investors to get back. that's not to say it's going to happen but a lot of folks are focused on whether or not there is that signal that goes up and they are trying to figure out if it is interest rates or any kind of commentary that is incrementally higher. >> exactly. labor market issues might be separate. thank you.

we appreciate it. what exactly happened with that disastrous report last night? shares are now down 36%, on pace for the worst day on record after getting extremely weak guidance for this quarter. just after you were posted its strongest quarter. both stocks were up to start the year but after the move, lift is now negative. more on what went wrong. are they just losing share? >> that's pretty much it . it's not really what happened this quarter, which was decent. it is where lyft is going. it's not really going anywhere. it set the bar high, and lyft kept talking about competition. they are being beaten here. that is what's really hitting the stock. the profitability that investors are now looking for. lyft was there , now they are

giving it up in order to compete. one analyst called it a debacle for the ages. the earnings call was a disaster. 35% lower in today's session. this is a company that went public at $24 billion market cap. now around 5 billion or so. it has been absolutely disastrous. but sharing may be a winner take most. it used to be maybe there could be a duopoly but uber has pulled so far away this week. >> if i hear one more thing about the total addressable market. how many people take this, look at the demand. it was totally irrelevant. all it did was reward people who were in early and it's been a disaster.

>> when it was autonomous driving that was going to be the thing that made uber and lyft profitable, that didn't shape up. now folks are starting to wonder, what happens with lyft from here? could a buyer see some value here? you look at gm which made an investment years ago, it's trying to develop its own autonomous vehicle network . they would rather see lyft flounder. where does that leave lyft? that's a question and answers -- investors will be asking. not a lot out there anymore among wall street. >> what is this whole issue with insurance? more from the point of view of, why is the insurance exposure so problematic and so big? what is that telling us? >> lyft has always had its eye

on insurance. when you think about it versus uber, it costs more to ensure cars that are caring people versus cars that are carrying food and food delivery. it hit that guidance in terms of profitability. but i think investors are looking past that. the whole story is market cap. >> and the weak demand. and demand issues that no matter whether you are carrying food or people, if you don't have demand you don't have demand. thank you so much, we appreciate it. humming up, getting to the bottom of the housing market. from renters to buyers to builders. where are the best opportunities for investors? plus, one titans as there is a mass extinction event coming and a lot of startups aren't going to make a . why this will be worse than the financial crisis and what founders can do to fund before it's too late.

here's a look at the markets, the dow is up 112 points but the s&p is in the red and the nasdaq is down almost 1%. look at the yield. 3.72%. the exchange is back after this.

>> we seen a huge rebound in shares of homebuilding, up nearly 50% since last year. could it be the spring season won't be as bad as feared? a surge in household formation. let's get to the bottom of thi , looking at the renter piece of this. chief u.s. economist has the pulse on the prospects for a further rally. >> housing overall gets more and more expensive, we are seeing the rise of the millionaire renter. the number of renters with household incomes over $1 million tripled from 2015 to 2020 and continues to rise now. according to a new report from brent cafe. this includes single and multifamily restaurants --

rentals. a total of 2.6 million high earning renters. millennial's makeup 28% of those runners with gen x in second. gen x renting jumped after the housing crisis started in 2008. the majority of millionaire renter's are in management, followed by financial services, ceos and legislators, software and lawyers and judicial workers. the top cities are on the coast and here in dc. san francisco had the top spot. but cities seeing the biggest jump, seattle, often austin and nashville. >> i'm sure there are ways for people to play that. we could talk about how those have fared. >> they got crushed in the

early parts of the pandemic and then they got better as ones began to rise. these are the buildings having higher and rental demand. then you look at billed for rent communities. some of those are very high-end. two it could keep upward pressure on rent. that is the big question from inflation. >> we are seeing them ease up a little bit. you are seeing increased demand. the big question is more supply. we are about to see a huge number of apartment rental units on the market this year. that could change the price dynamic a little bit. but demand doesn't seem to be falling just yet.

>> household formations and what they are telling us about homebuying and rental activity. you do see some pent-up demand. >> i do, good to be with you. more of a long-term situation, we saw a massive increase in household formation during the pandemic. people wanted more homes, moving out into bigger spaces. it felt like a lot of that would reverse in 2021, and we did see that in 2021 but surprisingly enough, the data for 2022 showed a significant acceleration in household formation. on top of a pretty weak environment for housing, the underlying structural one is still very positive. still one in which supply is

falling short of demand, builders are scrambling to catch up. >> do you have insight on what is going on with all these millionaire renters? and what that would all mean for inflation. >> it's more expensive at the margin to buy because mortgage rates are higher. in general, the way inflation is measured is much more of the rental market than ownership. so to the extent there is a skew one or the other, it will have an influence on the way we perceive inflation. >> do you think we are going to get an unpleasant upside surprise? >> i think that is a risk . people were optimistic inflation would come down rapidly and it feels like we

have captured a lot of the low hanging fruit already and it will be much more of a struggle to get inflation from where we are now down to 2%. they're kind of braced for that scenario as well. >> what a run they have been on. could we be at a cyclical piece right now? >> we don't think so. some pretty encouraging signs, google home searches were up 24% month over month. that's an encouraging point that leads us to believe we are returning to normal season. where january demand has been pretty good and starting to see typical norms come back.

they tend to overshoot at the top and bottom. we still believe they have a lot of room. >> they totally called the turning point. if you followed the builder stocks, they peek and told you they would get this spike. they were falling as a sign that this shock was coming. now they are doing better. if we have an economy that is rolling over, can the housing market still continue to do well and put up good numbers? >> we think so. estimates have been reset expectations are in good shape. on top of that, there is just a real under supply of housing in the u.s. whether or not rates go up or down, people need a place to live.

that has to be released at some point. we could go through a bit of a slow period but longer term that looks good and i think housing stocks are reflecting an environment that will improve. >> do you think the group can continue to do well? where is that demand coming from? >> absolutely think they can continue to do well. we still have 20 to 30% upside. where the demand is coming from his pretty broad-based when i would say the millennial generation is a big driver of demand. they've been out of the market for a number of years and finally starting to come back. they are back and need a place to live. they are willing to make things work by moving further away from the city, whatever it takes to make that.

>> what is going on with the hot parts of the market with the pandemic relocation? they are now the first ones seeing the climb. you would think there would still be continued demand, but instead they seem to be the hardest hit. why is that drying up? >> i think it's a couple things. some of these markets overheated, they are resetting and we will start seeing some improvement as we go. >> that's the call. we are seeing that, a surprising amount of demand.

thanks for joining us. coming up, we are counting down to sunday with a look at the companies spending big. if you invested last year, you lost quite a bit of money. so which ones should you bail on? our trader will make her case. the doubt is at session high of the doubt is at session high of 170 points so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. the exchange is back after this. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

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170 points. chinese internet stock, let's take a look at that yield. 3.73%. there was a strong expectation data in the survey, but keep an eye on this, certainly a headband. here is what's happening at this hour. attorney general ken paxton has agreed to apologize and pay $3.3 million to four staffers who accused him of corruption. their claims led to an fbi investigation. continues to deny any wrongdoing, saying the settlement will save money for

taxpayers. a lawyer for once is the size of the settlement speaks for itself. a wildlife alert at a popular japanese ski area. knocking a snowboarder to the ground, and then turning on another. neither was injured. staff say they have never seen wild boar's on the slopes before. boar warning signs are being put up. >> i don't think of them as

winter animals. i'll see you soon. thank you so much. still ahead, after two slow years activity is starting to pick up again. could we see a resurgence in startup investment as well? and during february, we are celebrating black heritage to the stories of some of our teammates and contributors and leaders in business. here is rbc capital managing director and contributor. >> i'm really proud to be my father's daughter. my father, howard cross, was a civil rights activist. he went to mississippi to help register voters. he did that great personal sacrifice. he was not well known at the time. i think about everything i've been able to achieve in my lifetime is because of people like my father and civil rights activists.

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>> will come back to the exchange. it's no secret the market has gone silent in the past two years, with 2022 one of the slowest on record. but activity is starting to pick up. this week was the busiest since october, not quite the same story in private markets. startup investment was down 63%. and my next guest says things aren't likely to get better anytime soon and the startup world should prepare for a mass extinction event that makes 2008 look quaint. you guys are supposed to be optimistic . we can't have bad news from your corner. >> i do see a lot of analogies between this period and 2008. the iphone was born, and a mobile revolution. i see this now as this business cycle might be on its last gas,

but look at what's happening in ai. >> it does seem like ai is the next major wave of innovation. it feels like an iphone moment for sure. one of those moments in tech where you see this technology and immediately realized it is going to change the world. the entire world is going to bend in its direction. we are already seeing this. >> i have to imagine capital writ large has shrunk. less funding available to go into new startups and higher rates and all the last of it. what is happening to the rest of the start of and new business and tech world? >> that's right. i think it will be a tough couple of years for startups that are venture back.

if they don't realize the environment has changed and they don't play their cards right. it's all about adjusting to the new reality. >> what does that look like? what would your advice be? >> three pieces of advice. realize that the cheap, fast, abundant capital that was irrational is gone. it's not coming back and those valuations in the public market aren't coming back. two, reorient from growth at all costs to efficient growth. and to your cash planning now, don't assume it will be easy to raise. and then if you do those things, i think the good news is the economy is on solid footing. and this is one of the best times to grow a startup . that's why firms are out there investing. >> why do you say it is still the time to be growing a startup? >> when your competition contracts, when they are not

hiring those top level engineers, that's when you can go on offense and do those. cheaper and easier than it was. >> that's a great point. what about the rest of the landscape? we are seeing a lot of layoffs. >> i think it ends the way it always ends in tech. short-term, there may be a few bumps in the road but if you look outside, technology is the fastest growing sector in the economy and will continue to be. it is the power horse for innovation in our country and across the globe. >> do you think there will be acquisitions in the space? especially for what could otherwise be a pretty quiet year. >> you got it exactly right. great companies didn't want to

acquire startups because they were trading at multiples. as those found her expectations are reset to normal levels like we saw in 2015, then the public companies can go out to their shareholders and justify these acquisitions because they don't look so expensive anymore. >> reality is setting in, that's a good thing. great to talk with you. let's stay in the space, angel investors are key to success. but a lot of black business owners aren't connected to that underfunding. a look at one nonprofit that is working to change that. >> we looked at a program that was developed by the institute for entrepreneurial leadership to find out how and why they are focused on educating and connecting black investors and startup founders. as a young physician, elizabeth

clayborn saw a need for a better way to stop a common condition she saw. >> it empowers anyone anywhere to stop nosebleeds fast. >> she invented this band-aid for your nose. and launched the business in 2020. getting funding for her startup has been a challenge. the year george floyd was murdered in 2020, lack founders got a record 16% of angel investors. up from half a percent in 2019. but in 2021, that figure fell to just 2%. >> black companies are just not getting the funding. especially when you look at black women, that is even less. >> jill johnson runs a nonprofit that introduces black entrepreneurs to angel investors, helping them a claim critical funding and knowledge. >> capital in the united states is so plentiful. we have capital chasing some crazy deals. it is so wonderful.

yet, we had certain groups that have been historically included -- excluded from access and we need to change that. >> to be an angel investor, you must be an accredited investor with an income over $200,000. or a net worth over $1 million. excluding your primary residence. these investments are high risk. more than two thirds of startups never deliver a positive return. >> i absolutely do expect an economic return. i believe in these companies. >> angel investor gina originally put money into it after hearing the pitch. and later invested more. in the past two years, she has invested several startups. >> i believe the companies are going to grow and hire people of color. and that is putting capital in the hands of people of color. that is addressing the rachel -- racial wealth gap paid >> dr. clayborn has raised over $1 million so far and plans to

have it on the market in april. >> if you are interested in investing in a startup, you can do it on your own as an independent angel or join a group. being part of a group gives them the opportunity to pool their funds, share knowledge and mitigate risk. >> independent angel sounds like a superhero. we were just speaking about the landscape, there is less capital available. >> it's been a real struggle for so many groups to get this capital. but what people need to do is to look and see what avenues are available, what group they could go to to learn more. a lot of universities have alumni angel groups, nonprofits. and find out if this is right for you. the angel capital association has a number of groups and platforms listed. find out more about them, go to a couple meetings. >> it's a great point.

i also look at that product and think, what happens if a big product copies it? how do you not only bring this to market, but make sure it is going to be successful? you need resources for that. >> she didn't start that business until she had the patent. >> smart. those can make all the difference. having the right coaches, the right people to get you there. >> it creates a network, that is what they are trying to do. take some advisors who can work with entrepreneurs and helping them. >> absolutely. thanks so much. good to see you again. a firm getting crushed on its wider than expected loss, but it's a dfentifre story. what is driving its gain, next.

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>> the dow continues to lead the way with 100 point gains while the s&p is now in negative territory. we are seeing mostly red, all across the board. microsoft is the only one that will and the week in the green. alphabet is down 10% just since monday. we all know what happened with the rollout of technology this week. elsewhere, expedia among the worst performer among missing estimates on the top and bottom with earnings 24% below consensus. they are blaming this on cancellations due to severe weather. the shares are perceived down 8%, reflecting some bigger concerns. sales and marketing expenses sword. revenue was down 15%.

trip advisor, booking holdings all seen declines between 3.5 to 5.5%. global payments before the break, after getting better- than-expected guidance. companies are shelling out record amounts. whether they should be in your investing playbook. we will have that next. (vo) get internet that keeps your business ready for anything. from verizon. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery.

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♪ ♪ >> welcome back. tech and social media companies raising another red flag about ads during their earning season but you wouldn't know it from the record price again for super bowl commercials same story, year after year. julia boorstin is here to break down the numbers and the companies spending big money who is it this year? i doubt we will be seeing a lot of crypto again. >> we're not going to be seeing a lot of crypto, but one thing is for sure, kelly based on these prices, very little signs of an ad recession, at least at the super bowl brands are paying up to a record

$7 million for a 30-second spot, up from $6.5 million last year even several of the companies that have announced major lay-offs such as google, workday and warner brothers with key spots. we can expect more beer ads. partnering with draftkings to invite fans to bet on what happens in their commercial. that partnership is among at least a half dozen partnerships between brands within ads, including one between netflix and gm other key trends in this year's super bowl ads, celebrity cameos from everyone from will ferrell to serena williams to john travolta look out for qr codes. there are expected to be in about half of this year's spots to encourage consumers to scan to learn more. one thing you won't see a lot of this year are automakers kia is the only automaker confirmed to be in the super

bowl so far. yes, kelly, as you mentioned, no surprise that crypto companies will be absent after a surge in crypto ads last year for more on the super bowl you can watch an interview i did with the nfl's brian rollap on cnbc "techcheck" linked in page. kelly. >> you should had ve had a page. >> i should have >> julia, thank you very much. julia boorstin which of the big names throwing money into super bowl ads should investors throw their money behind and which to avoid? last year was a disaster let's turn to cnbc contributor victoria green, cio at g square private wealth she has three names to buy and one to bail on vroom, rocket mortgage, salesforce okay meta this is like -- yeah, so let's start with - >> maybe we should put together an etf and then we just trade on

it, short of everybody that has good super bowl ads, right >> we'll call it punt or something. let's turn to your first buy which is uber. after being on pace for its worst day of the year because of lyft's disastrous report they reported a strong quarter and you like the stock here. tell us about it >> i do. i really think they're going to retest their highs at 44 they finally broke out of the sideways range they've been in for a couple of months but it is not just that. they have the scale and the profitability. you saw the super bowl matchup this week in earnings between uber and lyft. luber executed, lyft did not people are willing to pay more for their rides. uber is a more luxury product. they have 118 million riders now. they're ramping up different lines of business with uber eats and now getting into freight shipping i think not only are they expanding globally, they have the riders only about 17 people cross share across the app, so they can continue to grow cross-share revenue and they're trying to grow ad revenue by a billion

dollars by 2024. i like the trajectory of the stock and the momentum a lot i'm a buyer of uber. >> let's turn to peps owe. they are having their best week since october and they've beaten the streets 16 quarters straight you are sticking with pepsi? >> absolutely. their management likes to give conservative guidance which is why they continue to beat expectations first off, who doesn't have chips, freitos and doritos s at their super bowl party it is a good play here each time they've stopped at a higher low and they pushed up to a higher high. they're in an up trend channel i like this chart. i really like this stock they've been very disciplined with their pricing they're able to pass on a lot of their inflation to consumers, protect their margins, and they have the potential to push up to 185 and potentially to push you

have higher. i think you see pepsi well positioned technically as well as the fundamentals on the stock. strong earnings, strong management you have to love it when all three align. let's tourn to the drinks makers your buy would be budweiser's parent company seven-day losing streak, abinbev. a notorious super bowl advertiser but you like something you are seeing with profit margins what is going on here? >> they're more of an emerging market spot than people realize. only 30% of their revenue comes from the u.s they will benefit from a weaker dollar we look beyond the u.s not only am i hoping for like puppies and colllydesdales in ti commercial, but we have seen it time and time again from bev ranch makers how they're able to pass on prices to consumers. budweiser protected their margins. we see continued growth not only

in latin america but potentially in china think of it not just the u.s. and sitting around drinking an ice, cold budweiser on your back pofrp. it is an emerging market stock and i think they have room and growth potentially i think they're poised to break out of the chart they've been stuck in this range for months now i'm betting on them to get a lift here. >> i never think of them as an e-n play we will turn that's your buy. you would bail on maker of johnny walker, guinness, on pace for their third straight month of losses. we are just learning about spirits overtaking beer as a big consumption point in the u.s tell us why this one is not a stock that you think will do quite well >> well, hold my beer, but, no this one is all about the u.s. it is about 35% of revenues in the u.s. slowed dramatically in their mid year update. we saw only about 3% growth versus 6.5% expected, and they

also warned europe is also slowing. the management literally came out and said don't expect double-digit sales growths we think we are seeing a normalizing trend. as we see the business slow, we saw it slow dramatically in the u.s. we saw scotch slow and vodka slow tequila grew about 24% i think the stock is stuck in a down trend i don't think you see any support here two, if you are seeing slowing revenue growth and one of their core markets slow, i can't get behind buying this stock and it is a bail. >> are you going to watch the super bowl >> absolutely. i'm rooting for the puppy bowl to be honest my poor lilly did not quite make it but we have hope. >> they didn't quite thank you so much, victoria. great to have you today. we appreciate it very much have a great weekend victoria green >> thanks. we're going from the tv to the table next on "power lunch." we will get a look at the big-game snacks we talked about seeing price deflation

what does it tell us about what is going on in the economy there is "power lunch" quarterback tyler mathisen getting ready. i will join him on t oerheth side of this quick break

♪ ♪ hi, everybody. welcome to "power lunch," along with kelly evans i'm tyler mathisen coming up we have google searching for answers. alphabet slusing there 150 billion worth alone. the company thinks the stock is a buy from here. >> stepeaking of disasters, lyft getting crushed, losing a third of its value we will dig into the core of what happened and get our traders to take on whether it looks attractive at this discount let's check on the dow and the s&p, close to break even, but the nasdaq taking a hit as interest rates continue to