ten-year yield, in the 480s, so not that far away. seems like we put in a pretty good low the yield did not want to go below three, four, a few times in the last several months you got to keep an eye on it there's always something to worry about. it's a two-way street right here so as we cross, you can't just be looking at the growth picture and the fed. you have to watch the yield side too. that's where we are. >> great sufficient. good weekend to you and all of you. "fast money" begins now. right now on fast, searching for answers. a brutal week for alphabet, dropping nearly 10%. rates rising, could this be the seatup the bears have been waiting for? plus super stock sunday. the record-breaking action for sports gambling this weekend and the potential winnings off the field in the commercial battle royale later, a visit from the chart master he'll give us his crude assessment of where oil is

heading next mime melissa lee this is "fast money. we start off with the potenasdaq dro dropping some of the biggest laggers, high growth stocks that had been in rally mode this year. lyft plunging more than 36% today after disastrous earnings report its worst loss since going public four years ago. bitcoin seeing its worst week since november even stalwarts like alphabet taking a sizeable hit. does this week's action signal the end of the high growth rebound? is risk on, now off, tim >> if i was tying a thread around that list of stocks, there's two things i would say you have high multiple companies that have had an enormous month. guess what's happened this week.

we'll tease a chart of the week, but something has phenomenon on -- gone on in the rates market. the other dynamic is affirm and paypal and a handful of other companies and even some of the consumer staples companies this week talked about discretionary spending you think staples maybe but some of the elasticity that's going on in the business is companies that can't pass on prices but heard about discretionary spending, heard about a consumer that's wounded earnings took over we got back to the reality is the consumer is not getting stronger last friday's payroll number, we all know, everyone who watched this show knows that we look backwards when we start talking about those job numbers and we actually like to look forward. so that's what this week felt like to me it felt like until you get to 4,000 on the s&p, i still think we're in an up trend i'm not saying we're here to break it either way, we've had a big pullback in high multiple stuff sensitive to interest rates and

it's been a heroic run i think that's what you have to look at. >> last year's losers, for example, outperformed by 25% versus last year's winners that's the second biggest period of outperformance over this part of the year since 2001 so it's a major sort of mean reversion trade. we've talked about that for a while. a lot of it had to do with rates and i hate to use the word goldilocks but we were there the technical picture started to change macro looked good. i do think there's been a shift since the fed meeting. tim mentioned rates specifically i'll mention credit. this is something i've had my eye on for the past couple of weeks. earnings expectations continue to come down but what was happening at the same time? credit spreads were also tightening that's very unusual. it was emblematic of the risk-on mode we were that didn't necessarily align with fundamentals that's what has me nervous going forward. >> i think when you look at thithis year, talk your top five mega

caps they increased revenue last quarter by a whopping 1% yet you had this huge increase in their stock prices. i don't think it's different than what you saw, like in the year 2000. the nasdaq down almost 40% it jumped up above 12% in january like what happened now people thought it's risk-on rally again. it went to then lose another 30% over the next 12 months. i do think there's still pockets of the economy that can continue to do well i don't think this is necessarily the end of big tech, b -- >> what's so interesting about the shift in sentiment early on in the year when the rally was going on, i'm saying past tense as if it's over, but as we were watching the rally proceed, more people are going into soft landing, in that camp, right and i wonder if 245there's a sh now to, it might not be as soft as we think because that was soft. >> not as soft as we think, i think, comes from a week, week and a half of listening to the

fed and understanding no matter what happens -- and i'll draw attention to the federal term funds rate, which this week went from 4.85 to about 518 1/2 we've digested not only higher for longer, but we've digested higher rates i think that along with the front line listening to consumer discretionary observations from companies is where we're going here but, again, i'll just point out that the semiconductors moved 50% through a day and a half ago. they're down about 5.5% from yesterday morning. but from that october 13th cpi low print, they went up 50%. these are enormous moves, and i think you have to give a little back. >> yeah. >> i just want to highlight one thing too. soft landing, it always looks like a soft landing at the end of a fed tightening cycle. every single time, we get toward the end of the cycle rates cool off a little bit. you get a run in the stock market so this is not unusual what happens next, it's all

predicated upon whether we go into a recession or not. i'm still worried about the labor market i think nominal revenues for companies have been supported by inflation, you know, able to pass on higher pricing to the consumers. i think once that comes off, they're going to have to cut costs where they can to protect margins. i think that puts the labor force at risk. it always looks like a soft landing at first it's about what happens next. >> we're starting to hit the limits as to what the consumer is willing to spend for a bag of doritos or a burrito at chipotle, not to pick on the itos. >> that's good chow. >> and it's getting more expensive. >> it absolutely is. it hasn't been a problem thus far because the consumer still has a lot of cash. last month cash levels reached above what they were in 2020 people do still have that but they are pulling back now. this is why earnings are under pressure this is why you need companies who are going to continue to do well even in a higher rate

environment and ones who can pass on those higher prices. so it's going to be really important when looking at your investments you stick with those. >> i feel like all we've been doing for the last nine months, but as we've started to digest the reality of the fed and these rate hikes have settled in, if anything this is a case where the fed is hiking when the economy is slowing and it's usually not the way it happens but i would just point out that we're in a place here where i just think sentiments had had so many of these dramatic swings one way or the other i would argue it's just about repositioning, and i would argue it's very difficult to argue that the consumer is going to be in great shape they're in better shape. they have a job. we do the math in the s&p all the time on the show, and it doesn't make sense to me that we're at the multiple we are when we haven't started to see earnings come down i think this earnings season, you're starting to hear from front line. >> where does repositioning happen in your view? does it continue to happen away from big tech?

certainly the higher growth or the high flyer names. >> i think so. i think you also have to focus on companies that are able to grow earnings a little bit i think we have to bifurcate high growth, high multiple tech with growth stocks that actually produce free cash flow and earnings that's the key this earnings season's been sort of weird, and the word that we hear over and over again in these earnings calls, efficiency every time you hear efficiency, you get a big jump in the stock price. i don't know whether that's stenable relative to the overall earnings of the market that's what worries me i think we see a rotation back to what worked last year, at least for a point in time, health care, energy, et cetera even staples, for example. high multiples but i think eventually people are going to want the safety of those sorts of stocks. >> you were just mentioning the outperformance of energy. >> yes, 6% this month, which is sort of surprising i think that's part of the story. you have a lot of these parts of the market that were really left aside because they outperformed so much. again, rates were coming down. you're in this fed pivot window

where everybody says a soft landing is possible. rates are behaving, so multiples re-rate. i don't think that's sustainable for the remainder of this year. >> let's turn to oil crude prices jumping more than 8% this week the chart master sees even more upside on the horizon. carter, what are you looking at? >> gas was up 3.5% oil up 2%. while stindustrial metals down . i have two charts. dispense with the line i've drawn. we would all agree this is a down trend it's moving from the top left to the bottom right but the rate of descent is abating. we have a series of lower, high, lower high, but no new low wur starting to get a formation that's setting up like that. let's look at this exact same chart and pull it back second of two charts that's that line we were just studying what we have here again as so often the case, the lines inform

almost everything. where does it bounce to the penny where does it bounce to the benny where did it stop here to the penny this is an inflection point. does it have to go up? no i'm sure people are betting otherwise. my feeling is it does go up. i think 85 is where we're headed we closed at $79.72. >> thanks. we'll see you shortly. that's no lines, no judgments. that's what the chart master does. >> as it always is with carter. >> we got news today russia is going to cut production. >> i think you always have a case where i believe the energy supply dynamic is not something that changes soon. i think you can make an argument if you saw some miraculous settlement with ukraine, the more important point is there's been a lack of spending in infrastructure and the energy sector for many, many years. what the market wants to see --

and i mean the stocks. they want to see an oil price that's stabilized. we've traded in a range now for three to six months. as they say, oil companies and energy companies don't rally when oil prices are spiking because nobody believes that price is sustainable we're just getting through in fact the energy earnings that came out this week that came out of pioneer or some other companies, they were very strong we hear about higher payout levels, debt paydowns. you want to find companies increasing their cash flow and companies that are going to do well in this environment the energy companies are a place you're going to get that. >> and the capital discipline. think about exxonmobil, for example. record profits but they're still talking about cutting costs and managing that side of the business i think that's important for these companies. you can argue they've overearned over the past year but as these multiples i think the stocks can do pretty well. the charts are still relatively supportive the last thing i'll say because carter brought up natural gas. if you look the at the bullish sentiment, it's as low as it's been, i think, ever.

i think i would pay attention to that, to a stock like lng. it's hitting a very interesting technical point at support that's maybe a stock you can play for a trade. >> i definitely like energy. this is one of my letters in my acronym here, so i'm definitely bullish on this. tim, you break up some good points the supply and demand constraints have not gone away energy is expected to be better than your technology sector. yes, it may not outperform to the magnitude it did in 2022 i think a lot of people just put it by the sidelines. but it still could do very well this year. i would make sure you have this in your portfolio. >> in an environment where you're questioning growth, questioning big tech and wondering where to go, energy seems like the fundamentals don't change even soft landing, hard landing, whatever it is. >> well, some people are going to point to potential cyclicality in energy demand, but we just argued against that. it's about energy.

it's about big pharma. it's about health care i think the staples trade this week, i think a lot of these staples companies have seen some of their best days i would not be chasing these multiples here. >> coming up, house hunting, looking to finance a car our chart of the week may make you change your strategy aper bowl stakes are high and onnd off the field especially for hot gaming stocks. we'll go live to phoenix when "fast money" returns learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

[office sounds] ♪upbeat music♪ ♪♪ ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪ ♪♪ ♪seems impossible to face♪ ♪a lovely day (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day) (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day)♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. (vo) is three hundred and ninety-one thousand four hundred a bank that knows your business grows your business. and thirty-four square feet... enough space for your ambition? loopnet. the most popular place to find a space.

welcome back to "fast money. gaming stocks have a big year, and the super bowl could make the payouts even bigger. contessa brewer is live in phoenix ahead of sunday's big game c con contessa. >> hi there. super bowl might not even be the kickoff for a very good year january gaming results are just in for new york. that state set an all-time monthly record for any state $1.8 billion in handle or the amount wagered 10% higher than december, which also set a record. yeah, yeah, i know playoffs with the new york giants and the buffalo bills might factor into this but the industry estimates $1 billion will be wagered through legal sports books on the super bowl alone fanduel tells me it anticipates hor than double the number of bets this year than last and wagers coming in from active

customers for fanduel will be up 90% over last year look, it's already posted a profitable quarter caesar's got really close. draftkings sealing the pressure. look at the stock momentum draftkings up 40% after it got pummeled last year mgm, partners in bet mgm bet not only from sports but also from being a leader in igaming and of course from exposure to bricks and mortar and regional casinos in vegas both set new records last quarter. wynn too gets a benefit from spending in macau as does las vegas sands. first, melissa, we've got to get through the big game on sunday >> just got to get through contessa, it's a huge game people are really getting geared up for this. >> it's going to be a lot of fun to see how it -- yeah, yeah. >> contessa, thank you one person who is getting really

geared up is jeff because the eagles, that's your hometown team. >> ready to go my daughter loves the eagles we'll be placing bets on the coin toss and over/under on the national anthem. >> i'm sure your daughter will too. >> we'll have a lot of fun i'm not convinced the moves we've seen in wynn, mgm, draftkings have anything to do with the fundamentals of those stories right now. it was china reopening and then draftkings, dare i say, sort of the dash for trash, high multiples getting a run this year so i worry about a name like draftkings heading into earnings if you hear anything about the profitability narrative that isn't exactly what investors are expecting, again, after that big move in the stock, you could see a gap down so that concerns me a little bit. i'm more optimistic, let's say, about an mgm, for example. that being a growing part of their business they're taking share there and i think profitability is more realistic for that type of company within sports betting. so i would focus my efforts there, at least in this market. >> i think when we're talking about mgm or when we're talking about draftkings, i think we're talking about a slightly

different story than las vegas sands and wynn i'm not saying you're saying they are the same. i'm saying i think the fundamentals for the macau-based gamers are actually pretty interesting, and i think we talk about it whether the it the license renewals, china reopening, whether it's just the valuations that are kind of absurd back to draftkings, the question is are you paying up for still a company that doesn't make money in a world where at least, though, there's been such great rationalization and at least there's been a much more thoughtful approach to cap x and op x and growth at all costs the addressable market growth in online sports betting is out of hand it reminds me a little bit, when you see an addressable market grow, you see the federal dynamics that are not clear and some companies spending to get in there early i think draftkings will. i certainly am -- jeff's daughter, i would like to see very happy on monday morning, but i'm not going for the eagles

sorry. >> corporate america shelling out millions for ads during the game, but some of last year's biggest spenders have had epic fumbles. ftx, for instance, has filed for bankruptcy coinbase shares are off more than 70% since the big game. carvana faring worse, down 90-plus% could this year's advertisers see a better fate. courtney, which super bowl advertiser company would you buy? >> this was a lot of fun i was looking at all throughout history the different super bowl ads. you have these companies that come out and do not fare well afterwards pepsi does not tend to have that same fate. they're more of your stable companies. this is a company who has good earnings growth. they pay a good dividend they just increased their dividend for the 51st consecutive year they've been able to increase their prices you brought up doritos last segment. they've been able to raise their price and consumers are coming there. i think this is the kind of stock you're going to want from

this environment they have a few good ads they have a really good doritos one. they have some good zoolander references with ben stiller. check those out. they're great. they're already on youtube. >> it's great to get these sneak previews of these commercials. you're stuck in the tv in the first couple minutes i like two things. i like first of all that t-mobile is always right there in the super bowl. i like t-mobile as a stock i realize this is a little bit more polarizing because the valuation trades two times verizon, two times at&t. t-mobile has destroyed these guys they're way ahead of the game. i think this stock continues to outperform mexico, the mexico tourism eww is the mexican etf i think it's a currency story. i think it's a near shoring and i think, yeah, mexico, like it. >> this is a multi-year call, but netflix. it's a stock that we like over the long term. our analyst who follows it says $40 billion of cumulative free

cash flow by the end of the decade if that estimate is anywhere close to accurate, i think the stock is dirt cheap here i would look for 400 as resistance in the near term. >> what's your prediction on the game >> eagles by 100 >> by 100, okay. well done. >> some laughing in the studio coming up, our chart of the week may stop house hunters in their tracks during february, we're celebrating black heritage here are the founders of the earn your leisure podcast. >> we've been so super intentional from the way we stress to the way we talk to the way our message is delivered. >> we have gained worldwide support, but we never forget we stand on the shoulders of our avtofathers and our goal is lee a legacy for generations to come. c ustomizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

back when i had a working circulatory system, you had to give your right arm to find great talent. but with upwork, there's highly skilled talent from all over the globe right at your fingertips. it's where businesses meet great remote talent and remote talent meets great opportunity. ♪♪ ♪ this is how we work now ♪

welcome back to "fast money. it it the ten-year treasury. over the last five days, the yield on the ten-year seeing its biggest basis point game, now at its highest level since january 5th. rates go higher and risk assets have a harder time, tim. >> they do high multiple names certainly run into some trouble. the two-year went from 403 to 452 this week. it doesn't mean stocks get crushed here but people are reassessing how quickly this fed pivot is. >> i think previously what you're saying is the bond markets were price is in a fed cut later this year. i think fed slowing down at some

point versus them actually cutting later this year aretwo different things they're finally listening to what the fed has to say and realizing rates might be higher for longer >> then there's the inversion, which we didn't mention here. >> yeah. the inversion. you've seen stocks rally you've seen a couple of 25% rallies over the years that would take us to about 4,300, 4325. that's not out of the question in the near term stocks can move higher with the curve inverted but one quick thing. i was looking at u.s. rates relative to european rates that spread is starting to widen out here, and that's exactly when the dollar bottomed as well so i don't know that's sustainable. but pay attention to that rate differential relative to the dollar and what that means for corporate earnings. >> time for the final trade. >> xrt i was a seller of xrt a couple weeks ago. it failed right another that august high. i think it continues lower from here. >> courtney. >> we were talking about this with the super bowl, but i do

think you want these kind of companies that have pricing power in your portfolio. >> over/under on the game. pick a number. >> come on >> 50? >> eagles by 100 >> eagles by 100 >> that's not going to happen, and therefore i worry for you because i know you -- >> you're asking me a question i have no knowledge of. >> merck i think big pharma, great core growth i like it. >> that does it for "fast money" this week. do not go anywhere "options action" is up next. how do we show strength and stability? (eagle call) a mountain? a tree weathering a storm? (thunder) lions? nope. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people.

>> announcer: "options action," strategies from the street's top

right now on o.a., is the consumer rolling over after a strong start to the year are we finally starting to see some cracks in the strength of america's shoppers the names our traders are charged up about plus with another slate of earnings on deck, we're laying out the ways to play a soda giant, a streamer and a tech giant. later, looking back at a couple of trade we're hitting the financials and the transports this is "options action. a special appearance from the general himself, jeff mills.

we