>> i had a blast the racing was amazing thank you, guys. >> leigh: it's on. >> ricky: great time glad to have you up here. >> leigh: next saturday, the supermoto cross world championship continues in oakland, california. that gate drop at 8:00 p.m. eastern live on peacock. for the whole team, thanks for watching good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines >> the euro own will avoid recession as the growth forecast is lifted for the region and says inflation has peaked. and u.s. futures fall after the s&p 500 closes with the

worst week in a month as the fed inflation fight is far from done japan's nikkei leads losses ahead of the nomination for governor on tuesday for ueda. and the u.s. military shoots down a fourth flying object in over a week. china says it recorded ten american balloons over chinese air space in the last year good morning welcome to "street signs." we are just getting started. the stoxx 600 has a lot of green on the board despite the weakness in the u.s. equities toward the end of the week we had the worst week for the

s&p and nasdaq in a couple of months with both of the indices closing down 2.4% for the nasdaq as a whole as investors started to get concerned of the trajectory going forward of further rate hikes from the fed and for europe to be positive after the negative week as well. the focus is going to be on a whole slew of data we have coming up. starting with the u.s. cpi tomorrow and in addition is the uk inflation data and gdp numbers later in the week. a lot to watch out for today, the stoxx 600 is up .40%. this is what we have with dax is up .40%. ftse mib is up .30%. cac 40 is up .60%. ftse 100 is up .25%. we are also in the middle of earnings season. not just macro data to watch out

for this week, but keeping a close eye on the companies re repo reporting. this is the breakdown. travel and leisure is up the high beat of baskets doing well oil and gas is dipping despite the fact that on friday, russia announced it is reducing output up to 500,000 barrels a day. we saw it was up .20% on friday. you can see the sector is dipping. real estate is down .40%. i mentioned the negative end of the week last week and the futures are pointing to open in positive territory. u.s. investors betting on higher rates for longer. pricing in the future fed fund market is expected to top 5% in

july that was later than last week with the peak of 5% which was seen in may. one rate cut is expected this year down from two last week. this shift comes after the blockbuster jobs report with more than 500,000 jobs in january added. there is more to digest. in europe, finance ministers are meeting in brussels. we have key data on tuesday. gdp from the eu and japan and the all-important u.s. cpi wednesday is uk inflation data and the u.s. ppi on thursday and we round out with the french ppi and retail sales we also have earnings from heineken and renault and stanchart. let's turn to japan. the government will present the nominee for governor of bank of japan and two for parliament

tomorrow ueda continued the easing mea measures he is perceived to be less hawkish. meanwhile, the eu will avoid recession with growth of 0.8% this year. they will avoid a technical recession it anticipated the eu says inflation has peaked and will fall to 2.8% in 2024. julianna, that is 1.3% higher. let's bring in the head of short-term interest rate trading from citi. great to have you with us. he used to be my trader back in the day. i'll ask you for your views. let's start with europe because we just got the upgrades from the eu commission.

they upgraded by 0.5%. no recession which is the key take away. also is kind of mirroring the language we are getting from the ecb officials. most of them are sounding more hawkish than markets anticipated them to be >> absolutely. what are you seeing is a reflection of the policymakers responding to data the increase and the positive data that's been coming out needs to be reflected in the interest rate markets and comments from the ecb officials. i think this just kind of reflects what we have seen broadly across a lot of the world where you have seen stronger economic data out of some of the european countries with stronger cpis and the blockbuster jobs report in the u.s. >> why do you think the market reaction was dovish to the ecb meeting last week? >> i think the market was really

expecting lagarde to come out and say they are going to need to hike a lot more by increasing the focus on data dependency, the market envisions that as a precursor to the shift and the way they come in with the steps. once you have a blockbuster payroll report and positive data last week was the data is strong you follow the data. the market got carried away by saying let's ls listen to the central banks. >> that is why the terminal rate went higher. >> yes. >> how is the fed and ecb and when we think of 2023, is this the year banks are acting in lockstep or is there more divergence >> they respond to the economic data in the country.

for the last decade, the world economies have been closer you look at last year and, sure, the central banks generally acted together you take the fed and they hiked by 425 basis points last year. how much did the ecb >> 200 >> yeah. 250-ish point difference with the central banks. huge difference with the two you say they are acting in lockstep that is where we get a shift this year with some central banks hiking and others possibly a small amount >> if i look back at the last ten days, there is so much data to digest and shift as we open the conversation with rate expectations when i have been speaking to equity investors, the data point they put focus on is the used car price index. obviously, used car prices have

been a huge feature with the pandemic shooting through the roof then they started to come down now it looks like they are stabilizing a little bit what emphasis do you put on used car prices and how meaningful do we see stabilization >> i think the sub components are important as a leader indicator in the broader picture. the used cars were a signal because they couldn't get new cars as easily i think that the value of different data points shifts and we kind of look to some of the central bankers to indicate which indices shethey look at the market focuses on the used cars because they say look at it now the issue is headline inflation and that will shift toward core inflation and wage inflation and services

inflation. once you start falling away from the energy impact. >> it is interesting it does feel analysts who have been coming on and focused on goods inflation and now talking about services inflation on the concept of u.s. inflation, i thought it was interesting that the bls revised the core cpi from prior months that means the lowest core cpi we had is 0.3. that is still pretty high on the annual basis do you think the set of revisions as well, we have another u.s. cpi number to look forward to tomorrow. all of that together, does that provide the fed with more reasons to stay into restrictive territory and stay with the hawkish stance >> absolutely. i think the fed downshifted down to 25 and will stay at 25 seemingly for the foreseeable future the question ends up being how long do they need to stay in

restrictive territory and hike rates. i think at some point restrrestrict territory means, they will raise until we get into recession. at some point, they need to cut rates. the question he isis when that happens. the market is pushing the fed to say inflation is going to come quickly and you will need to cut in the second half of the year the data is not quite there. >> taking it to markets. what is your market insight you can offer those watching today >> what do you see playing in the market the next couple weeks? >> there are two broad themes. i think the market has gotten into a couple different focuses. with the eu and u.s. and bank of england, they are focused on cuts being priced into this year that's been taken out a lot with

the past ten days of data. meanwhile, you take some place like the bank of japan where the market generally has been trying to push the bank of japan to be more hawkish you see the divergence with the two and you go back to whether we see more central bank divergence this year we will and we will see more in terms of that shift between those two. i personally think when we will see in the fed and the bank of england is it will be harder for them to really downshift because -- or to stop hiking at this point because the economies are doing well inflation is sticky. what you see in the papers and the press is really about high inflation. it just doesn't work for central banks to cut in that situation >> we briefly touched on the bank of japan. we are anticipated mr. ueda will be appointed as governor

should they think about monetary policy and turn hawkish? >> i think the bank of japan has been a long -- central bank where people wanted them to become more hawkish for the past -- decades. i think ueda is a little more dovish than the other candidates so i don't really anticipate a near-term shift in policy. i think they are considering it. they are considering exiting ycc and negative interest rate policy whether it happens in april? i wouldn't bet on it >> back in my day, shorting that is the widowmaker. thank you so much for joining us on the show today. the head of short-term interest rate trading at citi for more on the eu growth forecast, this is what we were

talking about the interview with paschal donohoe. that is coming up at 11:30 cet. the u.s. has shot down another object in u.s. air space. that is the third in a week. the u.s. and canadian governments are still trying to recover the three unidentified objects seen floating over alaska, canada and michigan this weekend. the biden administration added six chinese technology and aviation companies to the export black list over connections to chinese military connections sam filed this report. >> reporter: six more entities have been black listed as the fallout from the balloon incident has increased a claim to be supporting the chinese military putting this on the list makes it harder to get their hands on

the u.s. technology. they are restricted from doing so without applying for a license to send goods which is likely to be denied. u.s. says this is to disrupt the use of balloons which violated the u.s. air space, but other countries as well. one trade expert from china has been quoted in state media as saying the incident has given the u.s. another excuse to target chinese businesses. china slammed this as drama. it says the u.s. has continued to escalate the situation despite requests not to. it said it repeatedly shared information with washington and maintains it flew into the air space by mistake they are looking to shrug off in early morning trade and looking past the geopolitical tensions for now and focusing on the recovery new bank loans moving to a

record high. in singapore, i'm sam baddas back to you. coming up on the show, chinese chat giants join the conversation more on that wh juafr itarn te the break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for

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welcome back to "street signs. chat gpt creator open ai is making it accessible to users across the globe some are unable to sign up and meanwhile, chinese tech giants are launching their rivals to chatgpt. arjun is here to talk about the story of the moment. a flurry of announcements around the new chat bots. talk about the response. >> the reality of chatgpt is an ai arms race to bring out the rivals to chatgpt. we heard a flurry of

announcements from chinese tech companies the last week announcing their intention firstly, baidu launching an ai c c chatbot with ernie it is one of the largest companies to integrate it in the cloud and other products across the company. secondly is alibaba. the big ecommerce giant which is working on the chatgpt style alibaba's announcement came with the cloudy vision and perhaps that the ai tools could be used in the cloud products. you see how it could enter the ecommerce platforms. third up is jd.com rival to alibaba in china. it will launch chatgpt called chat jd. focused on retail and finance.

claims the chat bot will generate content and carry out computer to human dialogue it could generate summaries on the shopping sites as well and netease. the company is working on ai which is the umbrella term for the field of chatgpt to go into the education products netease's response to the release is speaking to the unique position that the chinese companies have to play the chatgpt could be worrying for beijing of generating answers and topics which could be sensitive in china. the companies are not coming out saying we will do this big chatgpt style product, but saying there are more application specific products. alibaba could work on the cloud and netease on education

the tactic is twofold. one to show investors that the chinese tech companies are investing in ai and cutting into technology also not to cause a stir, i think, in any political or security concerns in beijing as a result that is really the strategy. >> how much of an advantage does microsoft have with open ai and chatgpt? the first to get going with it now we are seeing a flurry of activity in terms of other competitors to catch up within the u.s. and china as well is there a thing as first mover advantage? >> with chatgpt products specifically the companies have come out and saying we have similar technology in the works shows they have been investing in the last four or five years. they have been working on it since 2017 the big thing with open ai, they have come out and released the product.

it has gained the market and they think there is feasibility in the product >> reading about this over the last couple weeks, it feels it exploded in the last two weeks a lot of people are looking at this as the beginning of search and google becoming into the search engine. when it comes to the eventual winners here, following on joumanna's point, is one likely to emerge? microsoft or baidu is this a new google to be the pioneer? >> it is important not to get wrapped up to chatgpt as the product. the key is the technology. the ai and ability to train large models in china, you have companies talking about it in education and finance and retail the key is who is the technology leader so far, open ai with the startup

is the trailblazer here and microsoft's invested in that it will, i think, in terms of the frontrunners are the big tech giants. i liken it to the cloud computing. the platform and infrastructure compared to other companies. healthcare company will not develop its own ai, but rely on microsoft or google or someone to provide the tech. >> the other thing about the ai is you need the network effect the network gets better by learning more. machine learning you need more people in the network for the technology to get better from that perspective, it favors the incumbents in the field. >> it relies on the scale. it also relies on huge infrastructure and resources in terms of computing power and the intelligence and capabilities and the talent that google and

microsoft and others have with the investments they are making. that is difficult for startups to invest billions of dollars into the technology. that may or may not be a big thing in the future. that is why at this point in terms of the frontrunners it is the big tech giants in the u.s. and china as well. >> as long as it doesn't replace our jobs, i'm okay with the rollout of chatgpt otherwise you have three robots. >> in china, one technology company came out with an ai news presenter. we should be very concerned. it wasn't as good as us, i'll be honest. >> especially with my bryan adams chat on friday >> it is hard to see the chatbot singing in break. >> arjun, thank you. no one needs to hear me sing let's get to yield curve news we have been talking about the eu commission forecast they upgraded the forecast by

0.5% forecast. no longer reporting a recession for europe we are seeing a nice reaction in the two-year german bund up 0.3 basis points. it is not a lot. the two-year german yield is the highest since october of 2008. this is in line with the previous guest and that the market is reacting to the data coming out the data is more positive. on the back of that, the market is pricing up the forecast for where they think the european and u.s. terminal rate will get. that is what we see in europe. >> a lot of shifts under way we while take a quick break. we have more ahead on "street signs. we are live from dubai as p policymakers look to shape the governments after this break why are 93% of sleep number sleepers very satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can gently raise your partner's head to help relieve snoring. so, you can both stay comfortable all night.

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines >> the eurozone will avoid a

recession as inflation has peaked european equities moving higher ahead of the u.s. cpi print with the s&p and nasdaq close out the worst week in a month as the fed's inflation fight is far from done. and nikkei with the potential bank of japan policy pivot as the ueda's nomination on tuesday. the u.s. military shoots down a fourth object in a week and china recorded ten american balloons over china air space in the last year. let's get a check on

european equities which the markets have been open the last hour green across the board dax up .40%. similar for the ftse mib and the swiss supermarket. the cac 40 is leading the way. and we are seeing under performance in the oil and gas majors as the price of oil is lower. on friday, we had the price of oil move higher after russia said it would cut output in march. reversal there that is potentially weighing on the uk market. overall, equities in positive territory. as for bond markets, here is the picture for european yields. the 10-year german bund at 2.386% a lot of information for the central banks going forward. the question of how divergent

central banks will be this year. they moved in the same direction over the last year, but terms of the interest rate difference, that is something to look out for in the months ahead. this is a big month for economic data the italian ten-year trading at 4.19%. and the impact of monetary the policy, you have the euro against the greenback by ten basis points. and a fairly muted start to the trade in the u.s. as the investors brace for the week for cpi and ppi. policymakers are meeting in dubai with the role of technology high on the agenda as they discuss future issues at

stake. we have hadley with more >> reporter: good morning. we are, of course, live at the world government summit in dubai. i'm joined here with fred from the council. we are one week away from the anniversary of the start of the war in ukraine here at the government summit, it is not a topic up for debate. >> you talk about the fragmented world and the world government summit you have 40 countries in the world which put sanctions on putin. i would say they feel as it is the battleground for the future of the global system if the war is lost in ukraine, then it is the loss in the jungle, not the rule of law. 40 countries have not imposed sanction on ukraine. they have other issues they worry about. you see the juxtaposition of a

nature-made disaster 33,000 people dead in turkey and syria. an absolute tragedy. one year after a putin-made disaster in ukraine t it is almost as if they are in different planets where people are not making connections with the future of the global system in ukraine and how it plays out with how we address the horrors of turkey and syria right now. >> no doubt. we will be at the munich security conference in a few days from now. i want to ask specifically about energy at this point we are out here often with this topic. it is interesting when we talk about the russia and ukraine conflict, but what is happening with the oil markets at this point. wearing having a different con vargs sit -- we are having a different conversation here

versus london. >> the cop28 and the uae talks about fossil fuel providers and climate activists. we like to refer to energy pragmatism you need natural gas for the foreseeable future if you replace coal with natural gas and diesel with natural gas throughout africa where it is a long time before renewables take over, you can cut emissions in half in a short period of time this could be the meeting at which you bring together the ideas. the newing technologies and hy carbon activist. that feels a distance away >> it feels like a food fight. >> too much like a food fight.

people need real-world solutions and they are still in the religious corners. >> what about washington today >> that's a nice transition. what about washington? i think there's right now a verying interesting political moment and economic moment in washington you see the economy coming in. it might not be a hard landing or soft landing. it might be a pretty nice economic turn around if that happens, it looks like biden is running for re-election. it is clear that trump is not going to be in the end, but be a contested candidate. it looks like we are starting to rediscover bipartisanship in the united states and we are getting more of an economic lift than anyone would expect at this

time madeleine albright is an opt optimist >> we speak about the energy dyn dynamic, but we have the israeli strikes a couple of weeks ago on iran obviously a fractured and disturbing situation happening on israel's border in lebanon. then israel itself >> it is a tale of two regions uae is doing extreme ly well. saudi arabia doing well. you see windfall profits to the national oil companies chevron and exxon and all the rest of them the international oil companies. sorry. there is all this money to invest the money can be invested in a lot of good things then you have the second part of the region which is yemen and libya and syria and hezbollah

and the real question is will one start to infect the other and hopefully the modernizing and moderate part of the middle east will start through the other advances and start infecting the other. the real outlier is iran does israel stand by its side? is this a black swan crisis ready to happen? i think i worry about that a lot in 2023. >> fred. it is great to have you on the program. ladies, back to you. >> hadley, thank you the death toll in turkey and syria has topped 33,000 nearly one week after the deadly earthquake struck the region turkey ordered the arrest of 113 suspects after identifying 131

individuals they say are responsible for the collapse of the hardest hit buildings. nbc's gabe gutierrez filed this report from turkey >> reporter: tonight, nearly a week after the initial quake, incredibly survivors are pulled from the rubble. including this 10-year-old girl. weak and covered in dust, but alive. this rescuer in turkey speaking with the man through the hole in the debris god willing, we will pull you out. pray for yourself and others as the survivor recites vs verss from the koran soon, his prayers are answers. god is greatest, he says in another city, a 9-year-old boy is rescued after being trapped for 140 hours.

please bring me strawberry ice cream and drinks he said. we are getting a look at the heart-stopping moments when the quakes hit buildings crumbling into clouds of dust as cars drive by narrowly avoiding disaster here in the city, the window to find survivors is closing. the living have not been found for days, but relatives gather here and cling to hope against all odds >> reporter: many said they were too distraught to speak on camera one relative had been pulled out alive, but in poor condition she was awaiting word for others trapped inside the rubble. >> reporter: frustration is mounting in northwestern syria where the group known as the white helmets is pleading for

more international help. we knew there were people under the ruins. we heard their cries we did not have the equipment to rescue them. the u.n. emergency relief coord coordinator acknowledged the world failed the people of syria. >> that was nbc's gabe gutierrez. now taking a look at some fresh lines from the eu. gentiloni says he expects the rules to end in 2023 you remember the physfiscal ruls were suspended with the fallout from the pandemic and provided support for sit acitizens and ne ce suspension will end at the end of the year. >> this is a topic over the

course ministers. if you go back to the rules, they are complicated in neighbnature and it would be a contractionary expense for the year they can not step change from expansion to contractionary. that is a focus of the meeting. millions watch as the kansas city chiefs win a closely fought super bowl as ad revenue hits an all-time high. we'll be right back.

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welcome back the kansas city chiefs beat the philadelphia eagles in the syssupe bowl advertising brought in record revenue for fox with 30-second

slots selling for $7 million despite fox banning crypto ads, it has set to be a record super bowl for sports betting with the american gambling associationes f estimates 50 million americans betting on the game. the ceos of the sports betting companies spoke to cnbc ahead of the big game. >> this is the biggest sporting event of the year and it will be draftkings biggest event of the year this should be the biggest ever for us every year seems to be growing at some point, that will end we are on a nice growth trajectory >> it will be a banner super bowl for us. we are on track for this to be the biggest single day in fanduel in history 17 million bets. more than double last year the super bowl is significant because it is the single biggest

acquisition moment of the year we bring half a million new commerci customers joining the platplatfm >> we have chris here joining us to talk about the platform we heard about the record revenues that we have seen come in for advertising this year my producer told me that is about $230,000 a second. massive spend when it comes to the super bowl ads how worth it is it for companies? >> a great question. i think what is powerful about the super bowl is it creates the community experience advertising works well when we gather we consume tv passively. sitting there on our own we are not absorbing it. what happened in a shared sporting occasion, we debate and share and talk we are more likely to remember something to see during the ad

the other thing that makes it powerful is we're happy. when we're happy, we are more likely to receive ads better you think about someone trying to sell you something at 8:30 in the morning when you rush to the office, you are not in a good mood when you are in a possiblitive d it is fantastic. you can receive the ad more positively. >> i'm listening and catching what we are watching on the screens. rihanna performing >> performing pregnant that was the big reveal. >> it was amazing. >> in addition to watching rihanna, what you didn't see when you were watching the super bowl was crypto ads. that was a notable feature the absence of crypto companies.

what is your take? what do you make of the fact they were not allowed to advertise this year and what filled the gap what were the themes >> i think the super bowl format is trying to put itself at the heart of culture the more it becomes the communal experience everyone can enjoy, it is more successful as a program and format crypto i crypto is polar arizpolarizing that is a big bet for fox. people can bet on everything from, you know, what side of the flip of the coin or what color dress is rihanna going to wear everything people can bet on the big winners were doritos they understand brand building

everyone can get hyped up in america about winning the super bowl moment. that means being the most talked about brand during the occasion which is fun and mportant, but what really matters is brand recall do i actually remember the ad in six weeks or six months? doritos have disconttinctive as at the heart of it they made the campaign a triangle they maidende entertaining cont around that. others rely on celebrity endorsements that is great, but they don't get the brand recall like dori tr doritos. >> we both mentioned the ads with the celebrities i need to go back and watch the doritos.

that will stick and that's what people identify with your product rather than the celebrity association. >> yeah. >> one thing i want to ask is which is taking it down is the broader macro environment. we talk about the cost of living crisis how is that affected consumer loyalty to brands? >> great question. what happens when people are under pressure, they look for familiarity. the same reason why the brands are putting celebrities in the ads. it is familiar we look for the bit of extra comfort during that time the same reason during covid, we walked out with a giant pack of toilet roll. it had no bearing on our needs. >> no comment. >> it is the same to the restricted market. we look for familiarity. the brands that understand this build market share

so the television brands will overspend to acquire new commercial they are worried about the bottom lines next year >> you talked about the opportunity for advertisers. you tap into families. a bunch of people or friends sitting on the sofa watching how do advertisers think about the upcoming event with the king's couronation what is the landscape looking like for 2023? >> advertising is really effective when it is relevant. if you imagine walking into the room and not listening to the conversation and shouting at people that is what advertising does. they don't think about a moment in time and speak to be relevant when you are super relevant and it allows you to have effective advertising. it is a bit like christmas day

we all wait and feel similar the nation feels a similar way you know, when your team is knocked out of the world cup we feel similar. there are a number of moments with the coronation coming up and we have the shared occasions. the women's world cup is coming up as well which we can expect to see huge ad spend. >> chris, making a case for advertising here thank you for joining us on the show today chris is the chief strategy officer from imperio. plenty of information to di g -- digest we have the economic forum meeting on monday and eu and japan gpd and u.s. cpi

on wednesday is the uk cpi and on thursday is the u.s. ppi. we are focused on company earnings and tech get a beating on the back of the competition to ai and also with investors continuing to upgrade forecasts for where they think terminal rates get. we see it with the ecb today and with the fed as well the central banks are data depe dependent. interest rates are moving higher. >> it feels like week after week, we say it is a big one for central bank watchers and policy is determining where the markets go it feels this week we are at the center of the debate in a way we haven't been last ten days and he can pec -- expectations are shifting. we look at whether inflation is

actually going to remain on the downtrend or inflation tick up before it comes back down. over and over again, i mentioned this earlier in the program, the used car rallying again. you made the point it was about goods inflation and now focus shifted to services inflation. it is one element that goods inflation has come back to the foreground. >> it has not gotten a lot of attention. i got almost no engagement bls on friday revised upward pretty much all of the inflation numbers since august by 0.1% the lowest core cpi has been 0.3% month on month. that puts it annually above the 2% target. an an annual if you think the fed is looking at the states and say we have done enough, you need to

rethink. that is a crucial take for tomorrow. >> let's get a quick check of european markets we are starting off the week in the green. all of the majors are opening in positive territory >> for u.s. futures, a muted start to trade green on the board with the nasdaq and s&p the dow jones industrial average looking to pull back after the worst week since december last week. on a programming note, stay tuned to cnbc for the interview with paschal donohoe >> that is it for the show i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is up next.

it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is the top "five@5. from payroll, inflation is still on the head of the fed developing over the weekend. u.s. shooting down a fourth high flying object. could this unidentified situation be a threat to your money? too little too late with goldman sachs's david solomon talking about the biggest job cuts in years. and what investors are doing for the first time since 201