if you took the over, i didn't, you won. if you took the eagles, you didn't win it's monday, february 13th the day before valentine's day don't forget "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. yeah, we're up we watched most of the super bowl >> three quarters. >> you know -- >> exactly three quarters. >> more people call in to work sick today than any day of the

year no, i'll be interested to see how many of the fabulous audience is awake. >> and those who show up may not be 100% productive today >> don't you -- >> she looked at you >> it was a weird squeak i thought there was a dog in here if you have some fun food or beers or cocktails >> that is probably what accounts for the calling in. >> my problem is i want to drink a beer that tony romo drinks tony, give me a clue it doesn't matter. you don't care they pay you if they pay you? i'm confused. >> i did not notice. >> i tweeted that out. tony, dude you told me to drink corona. now i see you dressed up like

bill murray. >> he switched leagues. >> here is my problem. i'm so used to watching a commercial and start doing something else that i'm like, wait i'm supposed to watch. i watch it and i wish i wasn't watchin watching i didn't like any. >> we were talking about the google pictures. >> i love the philadelphia coach. i knew if they lost, they would use that for a meme for the end of the game. >> i didn't care >> i tweeted that out. i'm not embarrassed. chris stapleton. >> the dunk in >> they do more in a day's work than he has in his entire. >> that is untrue. >> he lowers himself

>> she said on the way out, get my a glazed. >> the bradley cooper with his mother >> t-mobile. >> i didn't like it. >> we will talk about the ads and super bowl >> the people watching >> oh, sure. i saw elon musk. tim cook >> i didn't see that. >> what's her name famous musician. i'll grab it in a second it sounds like -- >> as a person who is afraid of heights. those platforms when they zoomed in they were moving a little i would have been like this on the platform trying to hold on to something. >> i would have thrown up. that is my thought >> i'm afraid of heights that scared me >> she commanded that. >> and another thing, my son, and i'm watching and i never

heard one of the songs my son started singing from the beginning. how did you know the songs >> he's younger. >> you have to rub that in. >> yeah. >> he is your son. >> did you know some of the songs? >> yes >> i do listen to spotify. you do, too. >> we listen to different things moving on. >> after what was a down week for the markets and last week, the dow was down less than .20%. s&p off 1.1% nasdaq down 2.7% it was a rough week for the nasdaq you see this morning it is a mixed picture. dow futures off 17 points. s&p futures up 4 points. nasdaq is up 50 points if you have been watching the treasury market, yeeields show e 1 10-year treasury at 3.72%. let's look at the squawk

planner. for people who are working and i wonder if people call in sick or hybrid monday, they just -- >> i knew somebody who called in fat once and that person works here still i ate too much i can't come in. >> i would never been here >> did it work >> yes this was a long time ago in the old building. >> here is what is on tap. markets double dose of inflation with the price index and producer price index on thursday and we get january retail sales. we have earnings reports from coca-cola, which i imagine was drunk last night, and marriott as well. meanmeantime, the downing of objects in the sky continues i don't know what to make of what is going on another suspicious flying object this on sunday over lake huron

the fourth craft shot down over north america after the suspected chinese spy balloon shot down on february 4th. let's turn to retired army colonels jacobs. another headline what's going on? >> nobody is quite sure. the last two were decidedly different from the first one which was obviously a balloon. one of the last few of these was described as cylindrical and decidedly not a balloon. what is interesting about the first one is that the government says for sure that it had a communications array that is a series of antennas to pick up the location and the nature of communications that are taking place down on the ground these are frequently on

satellites, but you can put them on balloons. it is interesting the victoria era technology to pick up 21st century communications the last few of these, the government is not talking about what it is and they won't until they figure out from the debris what's going on. >> colonel, the markets and world seems to be fascinated by this, but not worried. should we be more worried of what is happening here with some escalation >> from the national security standpoint, we have to be worried for two reasons. the first is because we don't know what they are and we don't know what they are capable of and extremely difficult to pick up balloons have no infrared signature and small radar signature. because of all of the stuff, we don't know who is listening or when they are listening.

it seems to be clear that people have been listening for a long time. >> that's the thing. they have been up there? >> they are not test runs for something beyond surveillance? everybody is talking about the possibility of an atmospheric detonation or nuclear device to knock out the grid are any of those things to worry about? >> they are, but not for that reason we should be worried about them because we don't know what they're after. there is some speculation they are testing our defenses the real danger here is that it will escalate by itself. not because of the devices there, but because of the conversations with the united states and china will get testier and testier. we'll have economic sanctions against various entities trade will collapse.

things will get more difficult china will retaliate that is the danger, joe. >> is the issue -- is this why they are not telling us more about this they don't want more anger circulating and congress to do other things to act in other ways >> that is entirely possible i think the principle reason is they don't know what they are. if they describe it as a cylindrical object much smaller than the balloon, they may not know anything more than we do at the moment they are trying to collect the debris field up in the yukon it is difficult to operate in the winter time. the latest one dropped into lake huron. collecting it will be difficult. we are not particularly vigilant in the air

norad wasn't the first to pick up the balloon people on the ground saw it. norad will have to get better at doing it until they find out what is on these things, they will not know >> what will happen in terms of how many more are up in the sky and have we known about all of these? is this on someone's radar >> there are probably lots of them report of one in south america there may be more of these they are difficult to pick up unless you are focusing on them. we will have to focus more resources on picking these things up. they are probably up there right now and we don't know where they are unless we look it is a needle in a haystack it is a volume metric thing.

the cube of any measurement which is hard to pick these things up. >> i want to go back to the escalation idea in eterms of how it manifests -- that is not the right way to phrase that we focus on the markets. the markets are acting on impulse. if you think through the permutations of what happens next >> there will be more eof these the dangers we should be concerned about is the following. the assumption here is these are all the work of people's liberation army. there is some level of autonomy the pla has. the most powerful organization inside china no matter what we think about xi and the unprecedented term and president for life and so on

the continuation of these things may be an indication that xi doesn't really have that much control over what's going on in his own country and that may mean -- this is real speculation. that may mean there is some broach between xi and pla and if that happens, there will be turmoil inside china that is not good for anybody, including the markets. >> is this possible this is a more sophisticated technique than satellites and it sits longer togather more data or w assume it is old fashioned and 20th century, not 21st century is it possible these are more sophisticated than we know and it was done for surveillance they buy farm land it is over montana where we have the arsenals is it possible it sits there long enough to get more data than you can get from a

satellite and we are under estimating the technology? >> i don't think we are under estimating it. that is one of the concerns. they are unso phisticated with the delivery system is a victory y -- victorian-era delivery system the next thing you can send out is a drone it won't be up there as long as these things are they can hover they are maneuverable. they are more dangerous with the capability to pick up more information. it is an odd mechanism to use that technique to collect information about our military capabilities is what we are worried about. >> colonel, thank you. i appreciate it. >> thank you, andrew. coming up -- >> billie eilish

>> that was not at the top of my tongue >> her brother's famous. >> sorry no segue tim cook >> her brother performed we will have more on the market week phineas. if you bet tails and the chiefs and bet the over, you had a good night how did the sports books do? we have an update on that and more you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. th itc e options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

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>> well, that kick sealing the deal chiefs win 38-35 there were five new super bowl records set during the game. it was a record setting night for sports books contessa brewer has more on this i can't imagine the money. i have seen the after effects from people who have a lot of money on the eagles. the guy beating on the tv and ripping it off the wall. >> it is not the tv's fault. everybody brags how much money they won they never say i lost $1 million on the bet here is the data i have at this early hour $100 million the number of sports betting transactions that verified over super bowl weekend that is the company that ve verifies where gambles are betting. it is 25% more than transactions verified from last year. the history making game and the

first time the super bowl has been played in a state where gambling is legal. we compiled more than 100,000 transactions in and around state farm stadium yesterday that is what you see fanduel said it was taking 50,000 bets per second averaged 2 million active on the platform throughout the game even in nevada, the most mature sports betting market, mgm said the handle wagered from the sports books on the strip and app, the highest in history. it took in $500 million bet on the chiefs to win $525,000 that is a confident better how about the player in new york who plopped down $1.2 million bet on live and won. draftkings has open betting next

year for chiefs at 6 to 1 odds >> joe and i were talking about this while in makeup you will have refs who are human and make difficult calls it is a different thing with 100 million transactions the amount of money. you can't imagine. >> the scrutiny on the referees and to make sure that the integrity of the game stays in tact is top of mind for the nfl. you saw the nfl putting out the whole point of having a game plan before you bet with the addiction is going to continue to be in the spotlight and how the industry and the sports leagues and nfl and teams tackle this is top of mind. also, fraud and cyber attacks. we also heard from geo that they stopped 140,000 attempts at attacks ahead of the game last

week it makes it a very lucrative target the fact that betters have to be verified before you bet and you have to know the location gives them a chance to stop it. >> is there a total amount that's bet how much is still off? >> let's break it down what we heard from the american gaming association and based on the saurvey was $16 billion woul be bet on the super bowl $1 billion is the estimate from research firms in the industry through legal sports books. >> $15 the$15 billion. >> some is squares you play at the office pool or bets with friends. a lot of money still goes to offshore sites what experienced gamblers known will say to me is the reason we go to offshore sites is the legal sports books won't take our bets because we're too good and they don't want to pay us

out. >> what about organized crime? >> they don't contact me. >> i know. this used to be we're not going to get into heroin and stuff, but keep the stuff that people don't get mad about. gambling that was lucrative they are probably mad. >> it has become corporate you have one of the big vegas companies, wynn resorts. the former ceo worked on wall street and it is a corporate crowd that runs casinos. >> all right >> we'll talk more about winners and losers from the big game george pine is with us i know you were at the game. >> up early. are you in arizona >> yeah. i had to get up for joe this morning. >> it's early. thank you.

>> what is your take from this two weeks ago, i'm a cincinnati fan. i'm not happy. does the nfl have work to do with officiating some calls are so subjective i'm thinking of holding calls. they are so subjective they can change the outcome drastically. i don't want those guys dictating the outcome of the game >> i think what softens the joe -- you are right, joe -- what is the issue is the player in question. >> what happened two weeks ago with the two third downs that's just one example. i didn't see what happened last night. i watched three quarters it seems that a lot of those calls and sometimes they call them and sometimes they don't. some of the blocks in the backfield. some are legal some are close they have a lot of influence >> that's part of the game they have a lot of influence it is something you have to watch closely as we watched with nba with challenges with the

officials. it is part of the game it is something you have to monitor closely. i know that is something the nfl is really looking into as important to them. this is the whole ball of wax. >> what struck home to me is the coin toss. they showed it from the first super bowl there were two people there. three people last night, there were 40 people that is a metaphor for what it has become there is a lot of money involved it is not going to lessen in coming years >> yesterday was my 27th super bowl i go to all sports around the world. there is nothing like the super bowl the greatest event in america. a who's who for business goes. it is just great it was terrific this year. phoenix did a fantastic job. the weather, the restaurants, the whole thing was well done. when they make a mistake at the super bowl, it is a global s

story. overall, the nfl did an outstanding job. the game was great two young quarterbacks patrick mahomes is in the conversation with tom brady and joe montana and kelce, the tight end, is fantastic. what a great owner shoutout to mark donovan i'm happy for him. just a great event and really a special game score every time you have the ball in the second half to win is a big-time performance. >> george, you said super bowl still one -- you said the biggest event in the united states the reason i asked the question is my son last night said how does the super bowl compare to the world cup these days i said i think, i think the world cup may now be bigger. he said how does it compare to the olympics i said i don't know. how do you now stack rank what is going on in the sports world

and where the super bowl lands and where everything else lands? >> the world cup and olympics involve multiple countries here you have one country, the united states. as the event on its own, it is very, very special it is up there with the olympics and world cup and european football championships to me, again, it is special. the whole thing with the fans and atmosphere and parties and for guys who have been around for a while, it is great you see all of your colleagues you have not seen all year long. everybody comes together the main thing is the product. the product was outstanding. >> does it have to become more international over time? the nba is more international. >> the nfl goes overseas >> i don't know if it reached that same level. >> it is not at the same level in terms of international appeal they have done a nice job.

nfl has london and germany fans. the coverage of the game and every tv in the office in our company had the afc championship game on in australia it is a global game. the united states with the nfl the nfl is on a perch here in the u.s. >> the market is there in england and you would think maybe they won't want to embrace it as much you know, they have their own sport called football. i remember in germany, i don't know how many people tried to buy tickets. it wasn't an empty seat in the entire place >> parties there some -- >> jags. >> they were all decked out. knowledgeable about the game >> i'm surprised i'm a football guy my dad and brother played. i can't believe.

they had real traction in europe and uk and germany you are right, joe p people like the game the nfl has done a great job building up the game outside the u.s. >> you see the commercials where they show a usfl ending. that's coming in two weeks is anyone paying attention will that go anywhere? >> i don't know. >> is it like a pickleball league >> it's on nbc >> as much football as i could have i can't wait >> you see the halftime with rihanna? is apple music getting a kick out of that from pepsi >> you know, i think they might. i think a lot of people talked about rihanna being a personality. she is in the middle up in the air. what they do in 15 minutes putting that together is amazing. i think the stadium was fantastic. >> a cast of thousands so many people my legs were shaky knowing

someone was up there i'm not kidding. i'm glad they had a tie on her >> i saw it. it relaxed me a little bit >> the musicians -- i don't know if they do with it apple in the old days, they had to pay for all of the production. >> they are given a budget a lot of times it goes over that they get the free ad, i guess. >> maybe now apple is the sponsor, they put up more production dollars >> it is worth if if you see what happens to the ticket sales. >> okay. >> i can tell you one thing, the nfl doesn't know how to process invoices >> all right i don't know i don't like when they score every single time. >> i do. it is exciting you complain about soccer. >> i know. was looking for defense. thanks, george we got to go the house whisperer! this house says use realtor.com

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welcome back to "squawk box. meta may not be done with job cuts delaying the final budgets of teams as they prepare for another round of work force reductions two meta employees say there is a lack of clarity. meta cut 11,000 jobs in november the stock up is 40% since the start of the year. when we come back, the markets on flinflation watch. two reports on the way m find out how it shapes the trading day. and february is black her heritage we celebrate our leaders

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with a majority of the s&p companies reporting quarterly results, investors attention turns to inflation data. tomorrow will be the latest inflation reading at the consumer level the cpi report on thursday, inflation read at the producer level with the ppi report for more on the data could mean for the markets and economy and fed, we bring in sylvia jablonski. for her economic perspective, we have sara house for wells fargo

investment bank. sara, have we seen the worst of inflation? >> i think we have, but it doesn't mean we are done in the fight. we are looking for another strong print in terms of inflation reading tomorrow there is upside risk to our estimate as well as consensus given the rescivision on friday with the momentum. we are looking at an inflation fight that is far from over. >> the bls numbers, revisions werestunning every idea that every inflation reading has been under reported at this point. that does send concern through things >> yes, so what we saw is the momentum heading into the report was stronger prior to the revisions with a 3% annual rate. now looking at 4.3%. so, i think that does suggest that we still have a lot of

breadth when it comes to inflation and it is not going to be so quick to get back to 2%. i think we saw a lot of optimism over the past three months inflation reports. what we think is you can extrapolate that improvement for it and it is going to be a much more difficult fight than what we were looking at a couple weeks ago with the data in hand. >> sylvia, you are expecting a little more volatility, i guess, we should call it. you had a really good line it is a good thing the month of january is over. dry january. why is that? >> you know, i think january was a very positive month. you had a lot of short sell covering and momentum in the market and investors were back in major indices were good. then the hangover we get from dealing with that. i think what will happen is one of two things.

the inflation print is hotter than expected and we get the continued volatility that coupled with the hawkish fed could pull the market back however, if the cpi number is okay, investors tune out the fed and look through and move forward and the rally can keep on keeping on. i think the read has a lot to weigh on the market. i also don't think it matters that much. inflation is coming down it might not be lineal it may be a hot read i really think we should ignore it that is probably not what will happen >> sylvia, i saw an interesting statistic of $31 billion in outflows of funds coming out of u.s. stock indexes and funds that's the biggest we've seen in terms of a pretty big pullout of funds since 2016 is that because the beginning of the year was so strong and last week a lot of people pulled money out thinking it is not getting better from here >> i think a lot of investors

took some opportunities to make profits in the first part of the month and took some of that off the table. again, i do think what was really interesting is you saw the dip buyers finally come in and this week with the pull back tomorrow, we may see investors come off the sidelines and get back into the funds. we're actually seeing it on our side we see a good pick up in ai-related products. s some investors are coming back in >> is that what you advise people to do if there is a pull back with the inflation hotter than anticipated this is a good time to jump back in because the fed will slowdown at some point? >> i would the fed will slowdown at some point. inflation is going to come down we are on month 15 from the november 2021 low. i think these are the times you gather wealth. you have to have the three-to-five year time frame.

if you are asking about next month, stay on the sidelines if you have the three-to-five year horizon, this is the time to buy on the dip. tech is really beat up i think there is a shot to regain momentum here although it rallied into the year. >> sarah, how about you? your best guess with the fed >> we think they go over 5% in terms of the terminal rate bringing that to 5.25% by the may meeting. we are not just looking at the terminal rate, but how long the fed holds it there the market has been more accepting of the line the fed has been trying to tell them which is they don't have plans to cut any time soon we think that they will be on hold hold through this year >> sarah and sylvia, thank you >> thank you coming up, we will get market comments from mohamed

el-erian and we will have the ceo of domino's join us we had him on last week. he will be in during the 8:00 a.m. hour. you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app.

coming up, the ceo of the second largest fracking company will join us reminder, you get the best of "squawk box" with uasqwk pod you can listen any time. we're coming right back. head to help relieve snoring. so, you can both stay comfortable all night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. ends monday.

reminder charlie munger and investor at the daily corporation will speak at the annual shareholder

meeting. we have that on cnbc.com on wednesday, february 15th this iis coming up at 1:00 p.m if you have questions you like to ask, send them in and we will ask as many as we can get to if you are a to dailyjournalquestions@cnbc.com president biden conceding that the u.s. is going to be needing oil and gas for, as he says, at least the next decade as the country transitions to renewables our next guest says we are not in the midst of an energy transition and claims the climate crisis is overblown. last month he railed over an ala alarmist move. let's talk to chris wright right now, chairman and ceo of liberty energy north america's second largest fracking company good morning to you. let's start with your reaction

i imagine you're watching the state of the union you see president biden and he makes the statement actually twice, if you recall in fact, the first time he says we're going to need fossil fuels for a while, and then later follows up with we're going to need it for i think he said something like about a decade and of course, you know, there were laughter in the chamber i imagine from the gop, but it might have very well ben both sides of the aisle at that point. >> yeah, likely it was of course it's great to see an acknowledgment, the world runs on oil and gas, and we need that, but yet to throw out a decade, it's just an absurd time frame. we're not going to meaningfully change the need for oil or gas one way or another in the next decade politicizing energy and opposing infrastructure sort of standing in the way of today's energy system before you've built a new energy system, there's no upside

in that. >> so when you think about the time line, what do you think is a realistic time line to the degree you think there is one? >> i mean, it's multigenerations if you look at the energy information administration, right, our government agency that projects forward demands for varied energy sources, they have roughly flat demand for oil and gas in 2050 than what we have today maybe it rises a little bit in the next decade or two maybe it comes down a bit in the next decade or two after that, and maybe that's true, but i don't think you'll see meaningful change of our hydrocarbon system in the next three decades. i'm all for investing in new energy sources nuclear has a great future if we could regulatorily issue a permit we haven't issued a new permit for a nuclear plant in 50 years. there's great new things we can bring. but standing in the way of what runs the world today isn't productive. >> i'm a big fan, it's quite

unpopular of talking about nuclear energy usually when i say something on the air, it causes some kind of strange firestorm. do you think there's any realistic chance that we have nuclear energy in the united states in the next decade? >> i think -- probably not in the next decade. nuclear i think will start a renaissance right now, but it more likely starts it overseas with a less onerous and less fear-driven regulatory system. i think we'll see small modular reactors come. they bring not just electricity, which is the only place wind and solar can play electricity is less than a quarter of global energy processed heat that you need for manufacturing is critical. nuclear could bring process heat as well as electricity today that's just fossil fuels that bring process heat. >> i want to ask you two other big questions. one is the s.e.c. has been pushing for more disclosure for companies around esg and in

particular their plans around climate and energy it seems like that's going to get softened in part because of the comments that have come back to them. we talked to gary gensler from the s.e.c. on friday what is your sense of what the s.e.c. was proposing and where do you think they're going to land >> what they proposed is totally nuts i wrote a long comment letter on it a lot of company public ceos won't do that, but just making an enormously complicated expensive reporting thing so people can sue us because they think we didn't properly estimate our scope 3 emissions, which is the product we produce. someone else burning them on the other side of the world, other side of the country, no one can really account for that. why are they doing that? they're doing it so this administration can signal they're against fossil fuels that's unproductive. >> when your linkedin post went down tell me what happened. people talk about censorship all the time, who should be the

arbiter of truth and all of that >> yeah, crazy i immediate that sort of amateur video, but just talking about energy, climate transition, just some basic data so you can get background on it, and it was taken down for misinformation. i heat the appeal the decision button, and they came back and said it violated their spams and scams policy posted it again, it was taken down again for misinformation, and then upon appeal they said, sorry, on further review it didn't violate their policy. that's probably not linkedin, but people are complaining because i'm not talking the climate alarmist narrative, and then for linkedin to go along and take that down, it's a symbol of who we are today it's unfortunate. >> chris, when we finally hit peak production again, we haven't yet since i think it was 2019, so there's a lot of finger pointing on why that is. fracking had its own problems,

you know, during -- when there was a slow period. when we tried to reopen from a pandemic, we can't get the workers that we need for the -- you know, for the whole industry, the oil and gas industry, but add in esg and add in president biden's, you know, pitch that i will -- read my lips, i will end the fossil fuel industry how much do you think esg and that type of rhetoric scared away producers is that part of it a large part of it net net is esg a positive or negative for society do you think? >> i think from an investor movement it's a negative of course we should care about the environment and the societies we operate in, and of course company government should be aligned with the owners of businesses that's a very real point the other two is of course but that's what businesses do in a free society they're not a great member of society if people don't believe

they're part of something bigger than just get ago paycheck, you're going to have trouble getting workers. the idea is right. if you're emitting greenhouse gases you're bad if you're reducing them or shrinking your business there, you're good. and then of course a top down checklist to decide if we're socially virtuous or not these are bad ideas. investors should care about esg, but it shouldn't be like a third party come up with a score card and tell me who's virtuous and who's not. and on the margin, joe, it has indeed reduced capital, raises the cost of capital on the margin, absolutely, we produce less oil and gas because of it, and the main impact of that is higher oil and gas prices. >> chris, i want to anthk you. we're out of time. we're back after this.

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good morning, wall street looks to rebound from a rocky week, inflations data and earnings a focus for investors we'll get you up to speed on what to watch this week. developing over the weekend, the u.s. shoots down a fourth high-flying object could this unidentified situation soon become a threat to your money. plus, one for the record books as the kansas city chiefs defeat the philadelphia eagles to claim their second super bowl win in four years. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now

♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market spot take a look at u.s. equity futures this morning let's show you where things stand. dow just off marginally, four of five points right now. s&p 500 up four or five points the nasdaq up about 51 points. the ten-year note sitting at 3 1.736. take a look at oil this morning, we were just talking about fracking and fossil fuels, wti crude at 79.51, just under $80 there. cryptocurrencies when you start to think about risk in the market, maybe some of the folks in terms of thinking about the speculation and whatnot, we're now down about $21,615, have been obviously up a little over

$24,000, but things have been kind of holding steady moving down just marginally there. the u.s. militaryshot down a fourth unidentified object sunday and expects to recover it officials said there were no indications of collateral damage morgan brennan joins us now with more if it's flying around and people aren't on it -- people can be on it, but you cover this stuff you and phil lebeau must fight a little about some things i guess the defense area is more your -- >> that's my beat, joe that's right so here's my headline for you, four objects, eight days, unknown origins. unprecedented response the u.s. fighter jet shot down that unidentified object yesterday afternoon. it was the fourth in eight days and the latest military strike over american air space for which pentagon officials say they believe there is a no peacetime precedent. so here's what we do now the three objects shot down

friday, saturday, sunday over alaska, lake huron were much smaller in size, difference in appearance and flew at lower altitudes. they're not consistent with a fleet of chinese aerial balloons that officials say have targeted more than 40 countries origins of the three latest still unknown. norad's commander not ruling out ufo's or extraterrestrials side winder missiles were used in all four strikes. f 22's and yesterday f-16s as well take a look at the one-week chart of those stocks all higher as we've gotten more headlines as the north american air defense, large radars across alaska and canada that picks up missiles and other aircraft coming over the north pole, that will be in focus

raytheon makes that. you've got satellite constellations in terms of some of these detection systems all of this raises questions about those systems. it raises questions about potential vulnerabilities, at least until now. cowen says this raises the likelihood that defense spending will not be cut, perhaps even increased. speaks to what officials ahead of the weekend have described to congress as new era of chinese surveillance just on friday you did see six chinese tech firms that were sanctioned tied to that first balloon. and this idea that surveillance balloon efforts from those companies have happened in the past, and then just this morning headlines that china says that the u.s. has flown balloons more than ten times since 2022. so for investors, perhaps, even more than the details of these objects themselves is what this does to the tensions between the two countries on the world stage. >> i'd like to know whether that's true, and that actually was going to be what i ask what do we do? it's spy versus spy, and we're

no slouch, i'm sure, in trying to figure things out i mean, do we have really cool things that we're flying around to spy on china? we must. >> i mean, let's be honest a lot of this is going to be secretive or classified. we do have capabilities. it is my understanding from some of the conversations i've had over the past week plus that we do not invade sovereign air space of other countries we do have all kinds of spy satellites, very sophisticated satellites we also have these contracts with commercial satellite providers and low earth orbit as well increasingly. you have surveillance aircraft we have been spending money and actually this past year's budget saw a massive increase i say that because it's only $27 million, still very small, towards high altitude balloons as well. this is certainly an area that china is not alone in in terms of the objects that we've seen shot down just in the last

couple of days, though, it does raise questions. i said that asterisk around the comments around ufos it does raise questions about just how many objects have encroached upon u.s. aerial space over the years because don't forget, we had that newly stood up office within the pentagon that's focused on unidentified aerial phenomenon, which is pentagon speak for ufos, and so now this raises questions about what some of those objects have been. >> right >> and why our systems have not picked them up until now >> i mean, ufos are just unidentified it doesn't mean they're alien vehicles. >> that's right. i might acknowledge that there's some of those. there's a zero chance that this -- i don't -- i'll be the one, though, like, you know, independence day that doesn't believe anything's happening until i actually see these like slimy things crawling around i won't believe it until it's already too late probably. but i think there's a 0% chance

this is until not man made. >> i think that's safe to say. and don't forget that the biden administration is expected to release its fiscal 2024 budget request on march 9th which is not that far away this is going to add focus to where the administration is making requests in terms of defense and national security spending and whether there's going to be tweaks to that request. and then of course how lawmakers pick it up and what they do with it in the midst of all the focus on the deficit more broadly, which i know you've been covering more closely. it raises questions about the foreign military sales in the fact that taiwan has a $19 billion plus military backlog, orders that they have made from the u.s. for things like f-16s in the last couple of years for which they are still waiting. do they now bump to the front of the line, and how does that contend with something like ukraine as well. there's going to be a lot to peel out over the coming days and coming weeks around all of this many, many ramifications. >> all right

it's a good beat you couldn't have known that all this was going to hit the fan. >> you know, joe, geopolitics is like supply chain. investors don't really pay attention to it until it actually really matters and becomes a very big deal, and then it's all everybody's focused on. >> yeah, well, there's so many flash points in the world right now, it looked like you were a genius well, you are a genius anyway, thank you. >> thanks, joe switching gears this morning back to the markets, investors bracing for the cpi inflation data tomorrow, joining us right now for that is liz young head of investment strategy at sofi good morning to you. what is your expectation and what are you doing about it, or what would you suggest investors do about it before hand or after? >> well, look, we started the year with this huge burst of risk on activity if you look at the patterns that have happened since january 1st, the top three sectors in the s&p

are growthy ones, consumer discretionary, tech, and communications largely this has been a rate driven rally, and it's been a rally based on the idea that, yes, inflation is coming down. it's coming down relatively smoothly, but i think it also assumes that it's going to keep coming down at that rate and i think there's also this sort of underlying assumption that jerome powell declared victory on inflation in some ways in the last press conference and in some of his comments afterwards. i don't think that's actually the case so the risk here is that inflation, particularly services inflation gets sort of stuck at an elevated level, and whattic we're going to start seeing is that we've obviously seen goods inflation come down considerably and will go into outright deflation in goods this year, but there's not a lot left to offset that services inflation in the headline number so as we've expected this to come down considerably each reading, we may sort of slow down the pace of reduction, which i think the market is

going to have to grapple with after this big rally. >> fair enough why do you think the market -- i mean, it sounds like inflation's going to be hotter the market has been glass half full pretty much throughout, and you think they're overthinking that or maybe not overthinking that, maybe they're under thinking it is what you're saying >> i mean, there's optimism in the market, and you have to respect the tape i think there's been a lot of people on the network saying that of late i've been definitely on the more cautious side simply for the reason that there's a lot of indicators still that are pointing us towards there being risk to the downside on valuations and the idea that, yes, the hiking cycle is maturing, and we're probably getting closer to the end. it's not over yet, and the market rarely bottoms before we've kind of completed that scenario so i would still urge investors to look at valuations and be cautious going into maybe the end of this cycle, especially because i think the end of it is

going to be quite prolonged, and it may last a lot longer through all of 2023 than any of us expected so you have to be careful with declaring victory and assuming that we're entering a new bull market, new bull markets don't typically start around 18 times forward earnings >> how do you think about cash these days or just buying the two-year i mean, does that seem like a better bet than just about anything else right now? >> i mean, it's sort of a boring thing to say, but yes, i do think that that's a good place to be, especially if you're going to be on the treasury curve. i would stop short of saying this is a good time to just buy bonds broadly. you have to look at the difference between treasury bonds and corporate bonds. i think that the spreads in corporate bonds are still far too tight and they're really following what's happening in the equity market. i would if i had to position myself on the curve, i would position myself on the shorter end of the curve i think there's a little bit of upside risk in long yields right now.

if inflation does come in a little bit higher than people expect, or if it stays stickier for longer you're probably going to see a rise in the long end as inflation expectations start to go up a little bit so cash is an asset class again. if you had to buy a defensive sector in the equity market, i would go with utilities. >> i'm looking at your website right now, and banking, you get up to 3.75% ap wide and no account fees that's not bad i saw wealth front is now offering a product for over 4% right now, just to keep your cash around. does that seem like a good idea? is it a safe idea? >> well, i mean, if it's a bank and was fdic insured, yes, it's a safe idea. rates are elevated, everybody knows that, right? you can get a pretty high rate on a really short-term investment so why not get that rate on the short-term investments that you have in your savings and checking accounts. i think it is rightfully so. >> if you're going to do it, you

should be talking munis, i mean, someone like you, sorkin, right? i what can you -- my guy said something about munis, and i think the after tax equivalent was -- or the pretax equivalent was like 5%, it's like, no, thank you, right because i think -- and he says, rates are probably ready to come back down. when you can get i would say 4.5, 5% triple tax free i might think about, right but would you buy munis here, and how long would you go? you'd stay short, right? >> i would stay on the short end of the curve in fixed income in general. munis are a good option for people who are worried about taxes. when you look at just income levels, maybe not everybody is worried as much about taxes as others, but yeah, munis are another good example you have to diversify your defense, the sameway that you diversify your offense in a portfolio. >> liz, great to see you, appreciate it, thanks. >> you too, thank you. >> any taxable yields, sorkin.

you. >> me? >> no. >> okay. >> add to your problems. >> when we come back, we'll talk about some of the biggest ads from super bowl lvii, a break down of the good, the bad, and the ugly according to what you were searching on the internet after you saw these ads. and later, what many have deemed a housing recession, demand appears to be springing back well before the spring market, we're going to talk about what's driving that move, "squawk box" will be right back.

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the 10g network, only from xfinity. one giant leap for mankind. last night's super bowl broadcast had great plays, but also great commercials it featured celebrities like steve martin, ben after flaffle, serena williams. who's been measuring these, kevin let's talk us through this, who searches things on the internet afterwards. that's what you guys are searching. >> that's the main thing. >> based on that, i was just going back and forth because your list of memorable ones was not the same list i had. i saw some of these commercials. some of them i don't remember. when somebody sees something and they want to find out more information, they go immediately to the internet and start trending through. >> right, and why that matters when we see people searching for

or going to the websites of the brands that aretizing. that's a very good predictor of changes in market share, the results shareholders want. >> that makes sense, you're tracking like the absolute change in behavior as a result of this, but i think some of them, for a brand like dunkin' donuts i know what dunkin' donuts is, i'm not going to go look same thing with avocados the steve martin pepsi ad was great. there's not really a reason for me to go to the internet and search them. >> you take these very well-known brands, like m and ms which was in our top ten and the use of maya rudolph in that case with humor that really nailed it for m&m's, and it's the kind of brand shift you can see reflected in behavior like what we measure that is important for somebody like mars who want to move the needle on, you know, getting past some of the past controversies and focusing on -- >> they were in a specific situation where they created a new m&m's character that

irritated some part of the population, and they were trying to do some damage control. >> what we showed is that they moved the needle they did change the perception and the goals. >> what was the number one ad? it was the flash trailer. >> the flash trailer d.c. is in a big battle with marvel if you're warner brothers discovery shareholder right now, you're feeling good. disney also moved the needle in a big way with their disney 100 campaign spot which was, you know, touched all the right notes. >> that was a little bit -- if you've watched any of these movies, that one also kind of touched a chord. the walt disney company dream come true that was number three. he gets us love your enemy. >> this is backed by the founder of hobby lobby, and this is a campaign that has been running across the nfl very high profile. >> identify seen this. >> all season. it's an attempt by, you know, a certain group of christians to change the narrative from

trumpism >> this is what would jesus do in some of these situation ads that are there. >> and very effective. >> these ads have been running before the super bowl, same thing with a couple of others that popped up in here does matter if you debut an ad in the super bowl or if you're running it ahead of time >> our data doesn't really show that it matters one way or the other. we had tmu this chinese shopping app and service that had -- the only brand that had two adss in the top ten. it was the same creative a 30-second spot that's a brand new brand for most consumers in the u.s., if not all, and it really popped. whereas we had other new that didn't that's one where i think it is a lot about what the creative is saying. >> i mean, that says something to me. the idea that it's nothing i've af of heard of before i might search the internet for. >> that comes on and i'm doing what i do. >> it wasn't targeted at you,

joe, i think it was targeted a at different demographic. >> that is a problem that i had all last night number one i stopped it for a while so i was able to fast forward. so i found myself, okay, i don't need to watch -- >> did you skip apple music's halftime snow. >> i didn't skip that, but i was skipping some of the ads and i have a tendency when they go to commercial to stop watching the tv or go do something, whatever i need to do. >> i suspect that you're in the minority. >> i will ask this, though i found myself doing the same thing. the game was so good it was hard to figure out when i was going to put the dishes away and get the kids in their pajamas. the game was so good is it better to have a good game where people will stick around through the end or is it better to have a game that's a little boring so people watch the commercials instead? >> in our data a good game is good for the advertisers as well people stay engaged throughout >> why do you think people like streaming? because you don't have to watch the ads. >> when you see the data -- the

data falls off the cliff for a -- >> talk about an ad not on your list was the tuby ad. >> it did pretty well. it was not in our top ten. >> a lot of people were talking about it on twitter. >> which one was that? >> the rabbit hole which starts off as an lsd trip. >> you don't know what's going on, and then you sort of go into this other crazy place you think something's wrong with your tv. >> yeah, there was the other ad, it looks like something's happening with your ad >> we're showing that one right now. >> that's a bit of a trick that can be not popular. >> did you think that was he helpful? >> i thought it was effective. >> what we just showed was more effective, the one where you didn't know something was going on and you thought something was wrong. >> you start picking up your remote. >> the rabbit hole one did better than the interface. >> do you think a lot of people googled --

>> and how much is googling the success? >> well, it's a predictor of results. it's a predictor of changes in sales and so, you know, there are some brands that aren't really trying to do that initially, so maybe it's not the right metric for them. but in general, it is a very good predictor of changes. >> what do you think the average cost, total cost -- $7 million for 30 seconds some of these ads are like a minute long. the t-mobile ad. how much do you think on top of that, if you look at a bradley cooper ad, what do you think tmo spent just to do the puroductio of that ad and to pay bradley cooper and the mother, and how many times are they going to run that not just in the super bowl but a million times around the super bowl. >> the super bowl a great place to launch a campaign the investment in the creative and the total campaign is going to be much higher than the $7 million for 30 seconds that these brands are spending in the game >> that ad on to itself, all in.

>> it's going to be in the tens of millions of dollars all in. that investment. >> my favorite was seeing 2 co. >> breaking bad, they had jesse and walter on but then there was like a -- that was my favorite one of all. >> i was surprised that they didn't do as well in our data. >> my other question, halftime show, apple versus the old pepsi halftime show. does that change the -- do people actually go and sign up for apple music as a function of apple being that sponsor versus pepsi? i understood the pepsi thing i sort of understood the apple thing for whatever reason, i don't know, maybe less compelling for me, i'm not sure. i'm a spotify subscriber does it work not work >> it's very effective we analyzed the pepsi halftime show and the lift that pepsi would get out of that halftime show for the last seven years before this year, and it was very effective it was a good economic decision for pepsi in our view because

you can -- for apple music, i mean, that show really said apple music to me versus the previous pepsi halftime shows. >> because it felt apple. >> apple music is in a real battle with spotify, amazon music, and for apple music, it's a statement. >> what did you see as the response, though. >> it looked like they were dancing on iphones. >> right and that's an effective image for apple music to send and apple music read, you know, that -- >> did you see a willot of -- >> ton after lift, we're still analyzing the final numbers on apple music. we prioritize the regular ads first. >> i would love to see the effectiveness of that versus pepsi. having said that, there's a lot more money, and if they can get even one person to subscribe to apple music over a year, versus how many times you're actually going to buy doritos or pepsi and the margin there is wild.

>> you thought leaders have used equivalize to make it a word okay, if you want to do that, it's like refeuduate, sarah palin made up some new words. >> webster adds new words. the u.s. military shooting down a fourth high alt constitute object. we're going to have reaction from beijing in just a bit you don't want to miss that. take a look at futures this morning, still got about two hours before the market's set to open we're going to open about 60 points higher on the dow, s&p 500 up about 50 points nasdaq up about 80 points. we're coming right back. maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family... ...or passing down the family business... ...or giving back to the places that inspire you. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank,

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coming up, signs of pickup in housing demand. we'll have the latest data and talk what the sector is seeing ahead of the spring market next, stay tedun you're watching "squawk box," this is cnbc head to help relieve snoring. so, you can both stay comfortable all night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. ends monday. young lady who was, you know, mid 30s, couple of kids, recently went through a divorce. she had a lot of questions when she came in. i watched my mother go through being a single mom. at the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself.

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after months of what may have been deemed a housing recession, demand appears to be springing back well before the actual spring market diana olick spent her saturday at an open house and is here to tell us what she found what was the scene, diana? >> well, it was really kind of amazing, becky look, we had been hearing rumblings that things were suddenly heating up. we went to a listing just over the d.c. line in bethesda, maryland, the three bedroom, two bath home was just listed at about a million dollars. folks started arriving before the official start time and just kept coming.

the agent said she also has 40 appointments for private sho showings >> i actually thought, my god, this is amazing. look at how fast it turned on a dime we went from no showings and nobody coming to open houses that every single thing that i've launched in the last couple of weeks has had multiple offers >> and rice said she just got back from a large real estate conference in las vegas and the story from other agents there in markets across the country, they said it was the same thing now, mortgage applications to buy a home have been rising steadily and redfin just reported that its demand index, which measures requests for house tours hit its highest level since september last week. buyers we spoke to didn't seem that concerned about higher interest rates and were pleased to see prices coming down a bit. >> it is improved because, you know, you don't have to sell off like your stocks and your bonds to buy a house for cash, but

it's still a bit of a nightmare. >> a nightmare, she said, because to a person every buyer said there is still just too little for sale. one all cash buyer we spoke with said he was surprised to see so many others with cash. just a note this morning, evercore isi upgraded zillow group to outperform calling q1 this year the bottom in existing home sales. >> well, i guess you have to see it to believe it, diana. thank you. for more on the housing market and who to expect from the spring selling season, we are joined by logan marishami, the lead analyst for housing wire. logan, wa explains this? what happened here >> we just had a water fall dive in demand last year taking existing sales to about roughly 4 million, which historically post 1996 we don't trend below that total housing inventory is still

near an all-time low still we simply don't have enough product if demand picks up slightly i think that's where the confusion is it's not like housing demand rebounded in a very strong way we're just in a strong seasonal time and a lot of people are just looking for homes and not a lot out there currently. >> do you think that this does, though, bode for a very strong spring selling season? people had been thinking that prices need to come down maybe it was just that mortgage rates needed to not march higher just as reququickly. >> last year we went from 3% to above 7% historically. that's very abnormal in the second half of 2022, new listings data started to decline more noticeably year-over-year so a traditional seller is also a traditional buyer as well. we had a vacuum in demand. so i caution people not to overread this. literally we've just had a small bounce from the bottom, and we'll see what happens throughout the spring. mortgage rates have risen half a percent from the recent lows

as long as purchase application data which looks forward 30 to 90 days, as long as that keeps on continuing, it should be a much better atmosphere than what we had in the second half of 2022 >> if a lot of this is inventory-based, when do you anticipate there's going to be a return to more inventory the homebuilders have really slowed down? >> housing permits are probably going to fall all year long. the builders have actually more homes under construction that haven't been startingeed yestery than active listings it's really if people start to list their homes more. usually we have bottomed out in season inventory in january and february, last few years march or april we should get the traditional spring rise that will get a little bit more actist listings. we started the year under 1 million. we just don't have enough active

listings so too many people chasing too few homes. >> that's been the story that we've seen time and time again in so many industries over the last several years logan, so much of real estate, though, is a local story, not a national one is there a way to break this down, place where is it's hotter, places where it's not? >> i believe that parts of the u.s. where actually you have inventory back to 2019 levels, those were the areas where you saw really hot home price growth the demand isn't as good there as other places, but really the places in america that are well below 2019 inventory levels, it just seems like a really hot market they just don't have enough homes right now. mortgage rates fell 1.5% it brought a little bit of demand up. we haven't seen that for over 12 months now, so we're just going to get a little bit of a bounce here we just have to track it one week at a time and see if that continues. if mortgage rates continue to rise above 7% again, that should slow things down

as of right now, it's just a small bounce from a very deep dive in demand last year. >> diana was talking about an open house she went for a three bedroom, two bath place outside d.c. for around a million dollars. what's the price point that is the hottest around the country >> i still think anything under 700,000 if there are homes out there, there's going to be a little bit more buyer activity to get first time home buyers, move up buyers, cash buyers, investors, you put them all together, that's probably where the action is at we're just in a very strong season time. we'll see how this looks out in april, but as of right now, it's just a little bit of life from a really, really big dive in demand the fed wanted a housing reset it got a collapse in demand. we went from 6.5 million down to 4 million. that is very rare to see in the united states. so again, i just caution people to be a little bit more mindful. it's not like we're trending at sales levels back to 2018 and

'19. it's really historically low where we are right now as a country. >> logan, thanks a lot >> pleasure to be here coming up, the u.s. military is shooting down a fourth high altitude object. we're going to have reaction from byeijing nex, you don't want to miss that conversation you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. you can follow on your favorite podcast app. stay tuned we're coming right back. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™.

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the u.s. military shooting down a fourth unidentified object on sunday, and expects to recover it officials said there are no indications of collateral damage eunice yoon joins us this morning from beijing with reaction there there's been a lot of reaction here about what really has been happening and what was taking place on those balloons or whatever else was in the skies what's the reaction on the ground, and what are people saying as i think we all worry about does this somehow escalate in ways we don't understand? >> reporter: yeah, and i think that the chinese reaction was relatively strong considering that there has not been any direct accusation directed

towards beijing for the objects that were flown over the weekend. however, the foreign ministry did push back again at any suggestion that the first object was related to china accusing the u.s. of, quote, illegally flying balloons into chinese air space. now, the ministry says that american balloons have trespassed into chinese air space more than ten times last year, though it didn't provide any evidence to support that claim. now, what's interesting is that these official remarks came as stayed media also said that they detected or that local authorities had detected an unidentified flying object over a chinese port while chinese military exercises were supposed to take place. this was near a naval base and those drills are supposed to happen today what was interesting is that the authorities were also quoted as

saying that the chinese were expecting to and preparing to shoot down that object and were enlisting the help of fishing vessels to either collect or take photos of that debris now, the -- it's quite common practice as you all know for chinese authorities as well as state media to attempt to redirect the conversation that is unfavorable to china by offering up alternative information. for example, the state media outspoken news commentator from the global times jumped in tweeting this year can be called the year of ufo. it's so mysterious, the object over china now is being discussed online as a possible american spy balloon guys >> what is your worry that this does escalate? i mean, eunice, i think right

now there's a sort of fascination with it all in the u.s. nobody seems to know what's going on we get these reactions from china but it's unclear whether this is just a lot of talk or there's something underneath this that could tip things in ways that we don't -- again, as i said before, we don't know >> reporter: right, and i think there, of course, always is that concern. we know that the chinese have refused to speak to the pentagon over this issue. the trip by secretary of state antony blinken has been called off. however, there are, i think, some signs that the chinese want to tamp this down and really want to focus on economic issues for example, last week they said that they would welcome janet yellen, the u.s. treasury secretary who had hoped to come to china and had been planning for that, and they said that they would welcome her also, the focus for the government has been a lot about trying to get business back, and

i don't know if you could see around e, but more and more it's been feeling a little bit more normal since the chinese had lifted the restrictions. people are coming out. they're trying to spend more it seems. at least based on what visibly what we're seeing here so you could tell that the government does want the economy to come back and that could be one factor that kind of pushes the relationship between the u.s. and china forward >> okay. eunice in beijing for us this morning or your evening, thank you, appreciate it. in the next hour we've got retired brigadier general and former assistant secretary of state general mark kimmitt is going to be with us to talk about the u.s. response and the impact that it could have on u.s. china relations. coming up, the growing push for a wealth tax at both the federal and state levels we'll discuss that after the break. then, in the next hour, we're going to talk markets, the

fed, and this we'sek inflation day with mohamed el-erian. "squawk box" is coming right back so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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enterprise institute, and stephanie kout is a professor of economics and public policy at sunni stony brook. what's a way that this is possible to do this, stephanie, in your view i don't know if it's problematic to three to do what the equivalent to a property tax because you don't know about gains unrealized, et cetera. we had a white house spokesman talking about the 1% not paying taxes. i don't think that's who we're talking about here, if the 1% say about 40% of the total we talk about who don't pay themselves income, they don't sell assets, so they aren't taxed. should they be >> i think most americans believe that it's wrong for somebody to, you know, have the value of their assets appreciate the way that the people that we're talking about -- and it is the 0.01% we're talking about.

think of the billionaires since the pandemic started they have seen their wealth increase by 50% over that period of time. i think most americans think it is wrong for people to avoid entirely, using things like the step up in basis, all the things you talk about on your show, to never end up paying federal income tax on some of those gains. i think, yeah, there's a way to deal with that i think most americans are in favor of doing something about it. >> normally the argument, i have made it in the past, if you didn't inherit it, you pay taxes as you're trying to build wealth it's after-tax dollars i don't see a problem with maybe -- i don't know about taking a loan against capital gains things like that, but we have never done it in the past, property rights, people do point out property tax, which you have

to -- i gets it's not unprecedented. would you agree we do want to avoid double taxation. if you pay taxes while you earn it, you shouldn't be taxed on just having it >> i mean, look, when we talk about -- there are people who would say the income tax is conf confiscateory, and we have property tax, capital gains taxes, estate taxes, gift taxes. in many states what they're talking about is increasing the tax rates on things like the estate tax it's not an entirely new tax we're talking about. sometimes we're talking about -- or these eight states are just talking about making adjustments. >> alex, 1913, a year that will live in infamy -- i'm kidding --

there anything that you would accept to try to get at that maybe 0.001% that we're talking about? the billionaires. >> the first thing i would say is to have a progressive tax system i think is consistent with what most americans want, and consistent with what we generally have higher-income individuals pay a lot of tax and lower-income vehicles -- when we go further and try to recapture the wealth that others -- that certain individuals have accumulated in the past, i think we have gone too far, particularly at the state level. different state proposals vary some are just changes to the existing system, some are new policies, but these are taxes difficult to administer, easy to

avoid, and inefficient these are not the characteristics of a tax policy i think would be desirable for the u.s. economy >> is there any way -- well, i'll ask you, stephanie, what about a consumption tax, or when you are wealthy and you do spend a lot of money -- i don't know what do you with it if you're not spending it, but what about a consumption or flat tax. that would get at it, wouldn't it >> i think it would move in the opposite direction of what these lawmakers -- let's be frank -- these proposals are coming out of progressive lawmakers, working in collaboration with activists. they're worried about the extreme concentrations of income and wealth at the very top i suppose the last thing they would like to replace their proposals with is a scheme that would disproportionately put the

burden of the tax at the middle and the very bottom. that's a very regressive way to think about it the rich save, spend a lot less of their income relative to lower-income people. i doubt that would fly. >> but trying to do it in terms of, you know, taxing assets. what happens when you have a year, like two years ago, what if you tax all the gains in the technology sector right before the stocks go down 60% what do you do give it back how does that work >> first of all, you're not taxing all of the gains. most is -- >> but they won't be gains they're not gains anymore. do you offset it and give money -- some of these stocks are down 70% if you had taxed google, meta or any of them, where they are now, you would be like, what was that that was almost a phantom tax. it's not doable and never going

to go. what could we do >> we still could do, i think, very often things. you talk about these things on your show all the time close the carried interest loophole, deal with the step up in basis you mentioned borrowing against assets. >> right. >> there are all kinds of things enforcement is already here. so we're going to see, i think, some of what the progressives are trying to get at, which is some tax justice, as they would call it. if you have people out there cheating, if you have loopholes being exploited, close the loopholes. if you have too many people cheating on the taxes, try to find them and enforce the laws that we have >> i think stephanie is actually right. we should enforce the tax code we have. we should have the resources to enforce them if people are cheating, go after them we can getting more risen by enforcement tax codes, but by

imposing new taxes in addition to the taxes mimicly that policy, that's not the prescription that will bring fiscal sanity and economic growth >> thank you both. there's a story just published on politico saying vivek is exploring a bid for the presidency >> does that surprise you? >> perhaps not maybe we'll talk about it abit more. >> maybe someday. coming up, another high-altitude object shut down is raising national security concerns in washington we'll have a live report next, and mohamed el-erian will join us a big hour ahead, after this e s. we need more ways of connecting with customers, fast. i know some consultants with great ideas. can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech.

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good morning 90 minutes and conunting to the opening bell first, a chinese spy balloon, now another object shot down over the u.s., now four in total. what do we know about them what could they mean for the u.s./china tensions. which commercials cut through the noise and worked we'll talk it a big gain, and whether a.i. is set to crash the ad party soon. tim armstrong will be with us. the fire hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning welcome back to "squawk box." i'm here with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin it's not just super bowl hangover monday, but it's mondays. we have seen a sort of slow people aren't in such a bad move as they were the futures are up a bit i think only the nasdaq was higher when we began the show. not really business losses, but we're green across the board that is in spite of what we have seen -- got more didn't i just tell you the

treasury yields -- in spite of sees 3.73 on the ten-year, do not do that. don't buy these taxable able things >> we were talking about people calling in sick. 18.8 million people will be calling in sick today for work, and the statistic is one in five people watched the super bowl are going to call out sick today. >> i thought about it. >> suck it up, man. >> i just got to be here i need to for the viewers. >> those folks are waking up to watch the show they may not be going to go to work, but they're watching the show. >> that always is the question of should it be a national holiday. >> well, if we had four-day workweeks we wouldn't be talking about this you know, next monday, boom.

>> that's true we're off next monday. >> if we didn't get up at 3:30, it wouldn't be as much of a -- >> why not play the super bowl on sunday? >> i guess the west coast -- >> 6:30 start anyway. >> i got to watch three quarters has it always been starting at 6:30 >> as long as i -- >> in the past, we've been on our way out to pebble, because it's been that week. >> right, right. >> it's a little different this time. >> also this week it's pretty busy for economic data tomorrow we get january's read on the cpi, the fed obviously watching that number very closely for any sign that inflation is continues to cool or maybe heating up again. wednesday we have retail sales on thursday, again, a hot number the fed will watch closely in other news, david solomon

told bank executives last week he made a mistake by on the not cutting jobs earlier last year it did eventually cut more than 3,000 jobs last month. and chuck schumer says banning tiktok in the united states, in his words, should be looked at. he said currently official at the commerce department are looking at a possible ban, and he said we'll see where they come out. the u.s. shooting down a fourth unidentified object over lake huron between the u.s. and canada eamon javers has more. >> good morning, andrew. a u.s. f-16 fighter jet fired a single sidewind er missiles bringing down the object

it was a description that officials provided of an okay tag natural object with strings hanging from it, but with, they said, no discernible payload, traveling at an alternate typhoon of 20,000 feet the military is expected to recover the object this began on january 24, then on friday, the u.s. military shot down what they called a high-altitude object in alaskan airspace the white house described that object as flying at an altitude at 40,000 feet, roughly the same size of a small car. on saturday, a u.s. fighter jet shut down a second object over canada it's not clear where the latest three objection came from, who sent them or their intent, but it does seem clear the white

house will be under pressure to provide answers as the week goes on andrew back over to you. we were talking to eunice earlier, if there's an inflection point in terms of escalation and what you are hearing. >> look, at this point, we don't know if the latest three objects were chinese -- there was a moment yesterday where a pentagon official was asked whether this could be extraterrestrial, and said they're not ruling that out. we saw spokespeople back off of that later, saying there's no evidence, but when you're throwing aliens into the equation, you're clearly considering about every possibility out there. it's hard to have a diplomatic reaction, vis-a-vis the chinese government, saying it has no information on the other three unidentified object. they say the first object was a weather balloon that errantly strayed into u.s. airspace

the u.s. go d buy that story the last three objects seems to been a total mystery, and it will depend on u.s. and could nay yoon crews getting into the territories to try to recover some of wreckage and presumably some crew will have to go diving into lake huron to see if they can fish that out of the water and figure out what it was. >> thank you, eamon. >> we have good jobs, eamon. >> yeah. >> i don't want to think about those guys that go into -- >> yeah, they're up there in the yukon, on the frozen ocean you can imagine that's tough duty >> i feel bad about complaining about monday morning after the super bowl, getting up at 3:30 i take it back

>> the only this about the super bowl was the outcome. >> i'll bet you didn't when i went to bed, my daughter was in philly watching, but this feels eerily like last year's super bowl the bengals looked like they had it last year i could just see it slipping away they didn't put it away, and the eagles didn't put it away, what happened to the defense, eamon really they were fresh as a rose. they weren't even on the field on the first half. >> it was like a hot knife through butter. >> they are good they are good. some of those passes from ma homes and from jalen hurts were unbelievable they were threading it into four guys those guys are good. >> the eagles were throwing into double coverage and making passes tiffs incredible there was great football on

display last night until the end of the game. >> eamon to see how good they are, go to an ivy league game. [ laughter ] if they ever -- never mind, i shouldn't say that. >> the s.a.t. scores are higher, but maybe not the scores. >> here to talk more about the spate of unidentified objection, retired u.s. army brigadier general kimmitt from west point. served as assistant secretary of defense and assistant secretary of state in the bush administration thank you for joining us, general. i can think of a lot of things this could be doing. this could be the first one, let's say, and i don't know about the other one -- surveillance could be one thing. testing our systems could be

another thing, or maybe being sort of a trial run for something really scary, which i don't know if you -- if we've really looked into that at this point, if there was a payload. i've heard about some type of detonating something in the atmosphere that could hurt the grid or bring down our communication systems. what do the highest levels of government think is going on >> first of all, the highest levels of government aren't talking to me, but i suspect, first of all, you also didn't mention this thing is probably hoofering up a lot of signal intelligence as well i don't understand the histrionics about this i'm a bit more sanguine about both what's going on here, and number two, the military effect. i'm concerned about the diplomatic effect, but overall, this is just a minor amount of the intelligence gathering that

the chinese have been doing for years and years that they're doing today. >> i was actually going to say that maybe the chinese saying let's send the balloon over there, so they stop worrying about tiktok, where they're really getting info. >> every day they are collect i by industrial espionage, human intelligence, cyberintelligence, this is just one element of what they're doing every day. frankly i can't understand why we're so concerned about this. >> what about us i mean, we're not -- my god, there's spying going on here we know this happens, but we must be good at this, too, aren't we? do we have things like this flying over china? >> certainly we have more than 250 satellites in lower earth orbit and above that, which is

not considered sovereign territory. i think we've got to understand we have gone from cooperation and competition with the chinese to competition and possibly confrontation with the chinese it is, in many ways, a new cold war, and we shouldn't be kidding ourselves about this. >> as you say, admit that, or at least concede that that's the case, but then don't overplay this, don't go into histrionics. it's nothing that that's probably out of the ordinary it's been going on, we just never saw them or detected them before >> i think that's right. unfortunately we're letting this to be politicized, and part of the washington game down here, but i think, as you said, accept it's going on, not just going on with balloon, it's going on with

satellites, with agents on the ground, it's going on with cyber. this is the era we live in, and have lived in it for some period of time. let's just deal with it. we now understand the chinese have a new capability. we seem to be responding very well to that capability, but let's not take our eyes on all this other intelligence gathering that the chinese are doing on a daily basis. >> we have seen farmland bought up around bases. taiwan is on everyone's mind. >> yep we don't necessarily need to hype this up that much, but we should be pretty wary about we shouldn't be under any illusions about the future is a bit troubling in terms of our relation with china. >> i think the present is pretty troubling. as you say, they're buying up

farmlands. let's not talk about about tiktok, but it seems ago if we taking the intelligence-gathering activities out of proportion, and if you look at the overall strategic threat, you're right, it's buying up farmland, tiktok, but also cybersecurity and industrial spying. general kimmitt, west point and heart vanity mba -- >> yeah. the business school doesn't have a football team so i probably didn't insult you. >> not at all. and it wasn't holding last night, either. >> what about two weeks ago? they have a lot of -- do we need a.i. computers to be the officials? they can't help but be subject tiff to some extent. it's a hold here --

>> a.i. is subjective, too. >> yeah, take the humans out of the loop. >> general, thank you. >> sure. when we come back, a super bowl ad post mortem with tim armstrong. he's the flowcode founder and ceo. plus we'll talk markets as we make our way to the opening bell on wall street, with mohamed el-erian stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back. the first time you made a sale online was also the first time you heard of a town named... dinosaur? we just got an order from a dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy.

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welcome back to "squawk box. this morning, brands pony up $7 million for just 30 seconds of commercial airtime during last night ace super bowl joining us is tim armstrong, now the ceo of flowcode. they were featured in a number of ads you probably have good data on what was working. >> we do. >> we started out the game with both the eagles and chiefs the nfl uses us for their shop spots. avocados in mexico, planters in the game so we got to see both our executions, and the executions of every else. the headline for me is the fans won, it was a great game i think the second thing is the

brands took very different approaches, and i think big brands are back. the platform companies weren't as represented last night. i think we saw half the audience had smartphones in their hands we saw a super-high level of connectivity i think we're in the space, like gm what they did with net flex. their size is important, and last year a crypto bowl, and this year, probably because there's a constraint on capital, people had to be more creative i think create activity was better >> so the direct-to-consumer, we want you to transact in the moment. >> yes. >> for the purpose of flowcode

people want to use it for that purpose. >> yes. >> then we're talking about the dunkin' ben affleck and j.lo more of a brand campaign i'm not sure if you were going to go online and buy a doughnut or show up at dunkin', and then throw rihanna in with apple music. >> i'm going to say something a bit controversial. if ed there's 10, 20, 30 or 100 million people looking at your website and said you won't get any data from in it, you would that's cede. if you like at advertising, experiences, things like ads in the super bowl have tens of millions looking at it if you're nour taking data off those ads in a first-party way is, in my mind, a mistake.

there were some great brand ads there, but if you went to dunkin' dough naught and set it's not getting any data you can do the say them in omnichannel, but there's a massive war for first-party data. >> do you think every ad needs to have somebody putting their phone up to buy something with it, or the ear worm that can getting into your head -- that's a musical thing, but get into your head, i'm going to go to dungin', or i watched rihanna, i'm a spotify person, but now i'm going to switch to apple music? >> i'll tell you this. brand advertising needs more

>> why not directly sign up people to apple music? there were some brand ads that didn't need direct connectivity, but there were a ton that did need it and there was a bunch where it was broken after watching correspondentbase break last year, i'm not sure -- >> i think about, for example, t mobile they did the fun ad with bradley cooper and his mother. they were trying to tell you this is not the biggest 5g network in the country, right? i remember that. so that worked, but the question is, knowing it's the biggest 5g

network -- that's what most people used to think, so maybe that's worked in terms of changing my perception of what it is. i cover the company, so i sort of knew it, but then the question is, am i going to go change my mobile service to t mobile >> let's take a big step back. we got an investment from nba and a bunch of other large invest offers, the reason is they see their brands to connect with people. you talk to adam silver, david lee at the nba, they are trying to take their fan base and turn it into first-party data and help their other partners, help the players, everyone else around the nba, because they understand their consumers really well. so t mobile you may understand it's 5g, but why not connect one level deeper i think that's the place that every ad doesn't need a

flowcode, but there are some cases where you can turn it into an instantaneous reaction. i think there were great examples during the game of that monday morning, you have a bunch of data from the channels, you own the first-party data, but i think there's the combo of the two which is most powerful. >> when you think about how sports and sporting events rank up, there's the super bowl in the u.s., probably still the biggest, but now you have the world cup, which arguably around the globe is bigger, and f1, other sports that are on the r rise what will that look? >> we just did the nhl all-star, there were flowcodes and then we were on tv

we are doing the nba all-star game in utah next week from what i see, i think there's two things under-monetized one is the level of fan interest, how rabbit fans are about sports, the monetization of them is still catching up, which is hard to believe the second thing is that channels like tv you do this at cnbc. tv is undervalued. even though the super bowl was $7 million for a 30-second spot, i look at sports or o.t.t. that they are still dramatically undervalued. if you made me say sports will get more expensive or less expensive/less important, it will get more responsibility/more expensive. i know that. >> from your lips. >> and also, i'll say this,

there are small experiences in life and there are big experiences in life. part of the reason the super bowl is such a big experience is 30% of the audience is there to watch ads, one of the most u -- nfl built a platform i think other brands need to think about their brands like a platform when you apply that to sports or other areas, everyone's sitting there -- they could be going product to people and people to products directly. instead they're throwing a lout of the data out to silicon valley and being thrown into an incinerator of value. >> it's a longer conversation. thank you. coming up, the ceo of enngno's will join us a big game spdi you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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the chiefs won on the field last night, but another winner was domino's they were expected to sell 2 million pies let's try it again, russell -- oh, it looks better. we had some audio issues last time that was before the super bowl, now it's after, so you can give us -- we probably have better insight how big a night it was

for domino's. >> both teams on the field did great, and another team that did great was the domino's team. we sold about 2 million pizzas yesterday. it was a great day for our team in the stores and our i.t. team that handled all that traffic online. >> the food inflation that you are seeing -- i told you we get domino's a lot have you passed along all the increases? are you still seeing the same sort of year-over-year increases that we saw from a couple months ago? >> we've got leverage with our suppliers, and we can pass that savings along to our customers on the proo pricing side, since

2009, we've had a $5.99 mick-and-match deal. we september it through december of 2021. the only reason you can keep something that long is because it's right so we used the same analytics when we graduated into this new price point. >> you really do want to migrate people to online it's a huge difference and it was, i think, $7.99 for a large versus like $14 or something it was a significant difference. why? is it that much better for you to save money when it's done online is it that much easier, i guess, in terms of labor? >> you were talking with your last guest about the monetization of data

when people order online, a lot of those 2 million orders were online, that's better information for better experience for our customers and better business for our franchisees. >> harvesting some of the data can you give me arch idea with the ingredients, where have you seen the most inflation? what's been the most problematic for you? >> it really is different over time obviously cheese is an important part of our product. last year there was some chicken inflation, but look, at the end of the day, our job is not to sell or not sell what costs the most money it's what our customers want we say long term, we need to do what's best for our customers. >> how about getting drivers how difficult is it? there were pertains in the last couple years where i know that certain franchises were turning away business. they just didn't have the people

to satisfy the demand. you have to pay people more, but you've got everyone you need now? how do you characterize that >> first, thank you. it sounds like you picked up your pizza, so thanks for helping us with the volume. >> i did >> so the delivery business for us, from a capacity perspective, we're really back to pre-pandemic levels for folks applying for jobs, but, you know, they say necessity is the mother of invention. one of the things we just did is purchase a fleet of 800 electric vehicles that helps us to tap into an incremental pool if someone wants to apply as a driver but don't have a car, they can drive this cool electric vehicle so we're continuing to innovate in thatarea as well. >> when will i order and there won't be a person, you know, it will just drop it on my doorstep

or something, you know, like an automatic, you know, pushes it out the door of the car onto my stoop. that's probably ten years, at least, isn't it? >> what i can tell you, we are a delivery company, first and foremost over time, whatever the new innovation is, whatever the best way to deliver pizza, we're going to do that we have autonomous delivery testing, these new electric vehicles, even delivery by drone. we want to make sure we give the best customer experience possible >> all right fun. i think you picked a good industry and company, russell. good to have you on. thanks for coming back sorry for the problem last week. keep us updated. >> thanks so much for having me. >> you're welcome. when we come back,

for business mohamed el-erian joins us. you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc logy needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™.

♪ welcome back to squawk we're just about under an hour away from the opening bell on wall street. we want to get straight over to senior markets commentator mike santoli for a look at what he's watching, beyond the ads from

last night. >> as much material as there is there, the s&p 500 is firming up in the premarket, after a week where we had a choppy but pretty shallow pullback this is the s&p going all the way back to the all-time peak. it's sort of maximizing the uncertainty. we did have a break above that down trend, but there's constituent a love the arguments for whether this is just another relief rally or something more look at the equal-weighted version, it's in better condition. you see, this one did make a new high, just a couple weeks ago or last week. it's much closer to the record highs. the average stock, so that's a bit of comfort hribal there. also this pretty decent surge

off the bottom that looks like so far to be in decent shape all these leading indicators of recession coming down the road this is probably the one, because the fed has put a as to up on that. the s&p was up after that inversion. i also don't give the yield curve credit for predicting covid. it got inverted in 2019, but this is the reason people are pitting recession is coming against the market is starting to act much better technically and maybe it's snip out

something, maybe a no landing scenario, but i think that's where the debate is migrating at the moment, andrew. >> mike, thank you the whole super bowl indicator we decided is bunk at this point? >> pretty much, yeah the chiefs won a couple years ago in 2020. that was a good year 2018, afc won, it should not have been a good year and -- i mean, it should have been a good year when the eagles won in 2018. >> if the afc wins -- remind me again what it is >> the rule was if it was an original nfl team that won, it was bullish. the eagles were that in theory, this is a bearish, but it's been broken for a while. >> eight straight times the winner of the coin to say loss last night -- that's that? kansas city won the toss,

deferred, so the streak was broken >> you know, there's also studies that show if you advertise in the super bowl, it can be a curse for your stock. that's a whole other separate thing. there's an article in the journal about that >> hmm, pretty expensive to get 30% of the people. i. >> i don't want the curse. >> think coinbase last year. joining us is mohamed el-erian, president of queens college cambridge. do you put any stock in the super bowl indicator >> i do not, even though i must

tell you that was one of the best games i ever watched, and it was a humbling experience for a jets fan to see what home court teams can do follow the two-year yield at this point i think that's the market indicator that has the most information. if it continues going up, i will be worried if it comes down to 4% where we were, not so long ago, i would be certainly more bullish. >> it's been going higher, in fact it is higher this morning versus of ten-year yield which is lower the expectation is the fed will not reverse immediately? is that what the two-year is telling you? >> the market is starting to sense the very comforting disinflation story is more complex than we would like it to be

lo and behold, we don't have an inflation problem. now we're starting to see certain goods reverse this inflationary process so there's more uncertainty about inflation. because of that, there's more uncertainty about the fed. fixed income has been reflecting this the equity market still isn't there. >> you mean like used car prices >> car prices is one energy is the other one that we may not get the continued disinflation the consensus is headline maybe come in january. that's elevated from where we've been. >> and a confirmation signal we got last week, which did upgrade the last three months of numbers

we have seen. >> yeah. they also sort of put a modifier on the last disinflationary narrative. that's a critical word chair powell set it 11 times at the press conference, and the market loved that. >> that's why tomorrow's number and the numbers that follow it, could we bet on disinflation for a while? >> there was a lot of fed-speak after fed chair powell said that he said it 11 times in his speech do you think he's changed his mind since then? >> most of the fed-speak that came out is i was interpreting the market's understanding of what they heard from fed chair powell it was much more hawkish

than what the fed chair actually said the markets reflected that so i don't know where we are right now in terms of the narrative. that's one thing that the marketplace has gotten confused by we hear different things, even within the same press conference, depending on -- and you saw that with the price ac action then we were off to the races when it got repeated ten times after the initial mention. >> isn't that to be expected when you're talking about being data dependent it does get more complicated, and there will be something in his speeches, no matter what. >> you're right. we had three different influences we had the data dependency short term, the

variable lags longer term and he introduced another one when he said what is happening with the labor market may be more structural than cyclical it is what happened after the press conference, the sort of correction of the markets understanding that was really interesting. >> i will say they've probably done most of the raises here you won't see the same delta of change. >> absolutely. we all want four consecutive and 75 basis point hikes it's wonderful in a the economy is so resilient, but it's enough to have four in a row. that's a record number that's a lot of hiking in a very short span of time >> yeah, i think the good news is -- i'm still not in the camp that a recession is a done deal.

that is fairly important that matters a lot for the earnings >> sure. mohammed, thank you. always good to see you, sir. >> thank you. when we come back. a lot more on squawk what's behind of recent inflows to retail, and the tech sector recently featured in the news lately come back for a lot more ...and a lot less business. inner voice (graphic designer): as a new small business owner... ...i've learned that trying to be the “cool” boss... ...is a lot harder when you're actually the “stressed” boss. inner voice (furniture maker): i know everything about my new furniture business. well, everything except... ...the whole “business” part. not anymore. with quickbooks, you can confidently manage your business. new business? no problem. yeah. success starts with intuit quickbooks. my name is joshua florence, and one thing i learned being a firefighter is plan ahead.

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individual investors are chasing market momentum so far this year, and they're flooding into a handful of specific stocks, and kate rooney joins us with more on the shpecific name. >> good morning. the action has really been con trai concentrated in a handful of stocks c3.ai saw a surge in inflows last week after microsoft unveiled updates to its search engine, using chatgpt, and google revealed its own a.i. chat bot it has slowed a little bit there's been a notable rise in net inflows to some of the small cap a.i. names, so you've got big bear, sound hound a.i., as well as microsoft and nvidia, which could benefit from some of this a.i. demand as well tesla, though, is consistently

the most bought stock by individual investors last week, though, it was described as unprecedented flows. tesla alone attracted 24% of single-stock net purchases, likely an effort to chase some of the momentum and recoup 2022 losses there's also a tesla investor day coming up on march 3rd and a certain expectation that that momentum may slow down after that march date. jpmorgan also points out a similar trend with both older and younger cohorts of retail investors adding to risk year-to-date with buying hitting the highest level we've seen since last august, and as far as what's driving this, guys, he says it's essentially fomo and momentum they also warn that retail investors remain especially susceptible to some of the negative catalysts out there right now. >> none of the former meme stocks are there, kate these are sort of the fallen tech angels that we're talking about? more than the --

>> we haven't -- not on this as yet. we've seen a boom in the meme stocks or at least a little bit of a resurgence. you've seen bed bath & beyond, little bit of action in gamestop, but they don't have that list of meme stocks, amc, hertz, another big one, haven't quite seen the same resurgence, but some of the same activity in terms of just the risk appetite. you've also seen it in crypto, and lorobin hood also mentionedn their earnings call, they said they've seen a little bit of a return of some of the market activity and just trading volume that really dried up back in december >> nothing like the old days, the salad days thanks, kate we'll see you. >> exactly okay, joining us for more on the markets and specific names that he is watching, let's talk to greg branch we are going to be getting some data later this week i'm curious, ahead of that data, perhaps some of these names you do like and maybe some stuff that you don't right now

>> yeah, thanks, andrew. as you guys know, i'm pretty much looking for a repeat performance this year as we had last i think the fed will surprised to downside, quite frankly we sit 450 basis points into a hiking cycle, and unemployment has barely moved, and so while i acknowledge that i'm still bearish in my outlook for 2023, there are names that we can look at that will give us some sustainable earnings growth, largely through inelastic demand but also through some structural tailwinds. so, the credit card companies are good ones to look at you know, i have long spoke about how i think the consumer balance sheet is deteriorating we saw record applications every quarter last year. we saw that even though we were reaching historical highs in terms of the average percentage rate, and while that's bad for the consumer, as we saw in the quarterly reports, it's actually pretty good for the companies and i don't expect any of those tailwinds to falter soon

all three delivered high teens bottom and topline growth at least, all three guided to as much throughout the year and i think those tailwinds and consumer spending will be a powerful tailwind for those companies in particular. >> what don't you like right now, coming into these numbers and where we really are? >> andrew, i think we will get everything cheaper in a few months at the end of the day, i live in a world where i think the terminal rate's probably 6% or north. the market doesn't see that. and i think that if i'm right, the market comes to that view, the market overall will sell off, and so particularly, obviously, things that are interest rate sensitive are going to be highly vulnerable. growth is going to be highly vulnerable there are lots of growth names that i like. facebook is interesting. we saw that snapchat did not read through nvidia, as we just mentioned, is interesting with the secular tailwinds of a.i. and data center >> you look at facebook and say to yourself, it's a already run?

or do you -- or do you look at a google now or alphabet and say, well, that's really gotten hammered, maybe that's where the opportunity lies >> right, and look, i try not to confuse hammered with cheap. and so, something can get hammered and still not be necessarily cheap. at the end of the day, it takes us having reliable 2023 and '24 estimates, and i think we're getting there. remember, we used to be single-digit growth for first two quarters now we're at single-digit contraction for the first two quarters, so i think we're getting there and i think some of these names will prove to be cheap. but at the same time, if i believe that there's another 150 to 200 basis points in rate hikes, i'm not excited about buying growth here >> we're going run out of time here's the question. if you're waiting for your moment, and timing is always a dangerous game, but let's say you're going to wait and hope against hope, hope that things go down, obviously, that's not going to be a popular view

what do you -- what's your short-term game plan are you just sitting in cash are you putting in some kind of bond what are you doing >> there are opportunities that won't disappoint the difference between this year and last is we can get mid-single digits in the short-term basis so that's opportune, but if you need equity exposure, there are areas that will give us reliable single-digit earnings growth health care is one of those. look at something like hca, where labor proved to be a problem, but they'll pass that on this year credit card companies, you'll get reliable earnings growth there. some tech names will get reliable growth but you have to be careful on the valuation, particularly if i'm right and there's more interest rate hikes in store i'm not afraid to dabble in some of those names, energy as well, reliable earnings growth >> greg, i want to thank you as always great to see you

thank you. i want to take a final check on the markets on the day after the super bowl right now, we're looking at the markets down, dow off about 17 points it was sort of hovering around there for a while. nasdaq up about 38 points. there you have it. i think. >> march madness >> that's the end of it. now we're into march madness >> something to look forward to. >> nba there's a lot of stuff going on. join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right throw. ♪ good monday, welcome to "squawk on the street. jim cramer has the morning off premarket pretty steady ahead of the big event of the week. je yields do continue to creep higher our road map begins with national security mystery, the