that's all for this edition of dateline. i'm natalie morales. thank you for watching. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines >> ueda will do his best if the japanese parliament will leave the bank of japan top u.s. and chinese officials are the holding face-to-face talks at the munich security conference as tensions ramp up over spying allegations.

and steel prices sink after reporting a more than 30% drop in operating profit as the german firm warns of slowing economic growth dragging down steel prices. and summer holiday booking surging and shares pushing higher as customers shrug off cost of living concerns after years of restricted travel good morning welcome to "street signs." it is a big day for markets today. we are getting the u.s. cpi inflation number it has proved to be market moving in the past the big upside surprise in august, which takes you back, we saw more than 4% or 5% move on the nasdaq that day. the whisper number is 0.4%. could be higher if you look at core inflation

will we get a dramatic move in tech stocks and growth stocks? we will find out later today the hand over is positive the last couple days a strong special ession for wal street meta up 3 points in europe, we are seeing green on the stoxx 600 up .40% following on from the better session yesterday. the european commission came out with the growth forecast for the year upgrading growth by 0.5% giving a macro boost to sentiment for the year also bear in mind, we are in the thick of winter, but gas prices in europe keep dropping. i had a look at dutch tti prices we are back to where we were a year ago we have come a long way on the macro front in europe. we have earnings we are in the thick of earnings season let's switch and look at the

indices. dax up .30%. one of the names we are watching within the german complex and that stock is down 6 points on disappointing earnings we will talk more in the show. cac 40 in france is up .40%. we are seeing a bit of a down trade for the luxury names that are coming under selling pressure in the last couple days ftse 100 is up .50%. shy of 8,000 where it is threatening to break through that the uk stock market is going strength to strengths and commodities cfocufocused. it has been one to watch in terms of macro data, the labor data from the uk came in strong 6.7% for the last three muonths of the year. it does put pressure on the bank of england to keep with that restrictive policy for anyone

watching central bank policy with the sectors, telcos leading the charge vodafone and then it has been reacting positively. travel and leisure is 1% higher. chemicals are up .10%. tech which did well yesterday is under performing up .20% i want to take a quick look at foreign exchange this is the picture. euro trading firmer against the dollar .30% in the cpi print. the pound is shy of $1.22. a lot of focus on the yen. .30% firmer against the dollar now the official nominee for the bank of japan governor has been confirmed as mr. ueda. he is perceived to be less hawkish than other names out there. we are seeing a bit of a

strengthening reaction in the yen on back of his nomination. let's dive into the japan story. japan has nominated kazuo ueda to succeed kuroda. it is trading at the top of the range with the central bank under pressure to end kuroda yield curve policy with core inflation at the highest in four decades and ueda has an uncertain path. the economy grew less in the final quarter last year with the growthat 0.6% against ex expectation of a 2% gain this puts pressure on ueda as he looks to bring inflation in to target we have jp ong with more jp, this nomination now comes as no surprise given the news that

came throughlast week. the appointment of ueda was a surprise when it initially broke last week. what does this mean for monetary policy in japan? what is the path to normalization look like under his leadership >> reporter: those are good questions. the big question here is what will he do with the yield curve control policy will he abandon it or will he stay as dovish as his predecessors that is the question that ueda who has been a life-long academic and did serve on the board and was the dean of the women's university of women's department you mentioned the yields moving and that ten-year coming above 0.5% yield curve control policy. we have to go through the

commentary and critique of the bank policy framework. it is not that he thinks yield curve control is rubbish, but yield curve is ineffective if you widen the gap, you encourage traders to speculate when the bank of japan decided to widen .50% with either side of sear zero, we started to see bond markets widen more. that doesn't mean he will abandon right away will he hike rates not necessarily. in another critique, he said raising rates prematurely may not be effective because it is cost driven. this may not be as hawkish as some markets are expecting, but it is not to drive bonds the yen strengthened to below 1.32 against the greenback

in today's session, we saw the nikkei hold on to gains up 0.6% at the close in tokyo. a lot of things to think about, but the bond markets are speculating a slightly more hawkish boj governor if ueda is the next head. ladies, good morning >> we are watching the yen closely. jp, thank you for that report. over here in the uk, unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% in december which was in line with expectation. average pay, including bonuses increased by annual 5.9% in the period below expectations. without bonuses, it was 6.76%. chancellor jeremy hunt said this was a sign of resilience in the country's labor market shifting gears to corporates in focus

hydro aluminum said the outlook was unpredictable and adds inflation pressure are expected to abate let's get more from paul kildaymo from hydro. good morning looking at share priors, and investors are concerned with the numbers you put out with the outlook for 2023 unpredictable more unpredictable than 2022 what has you concerned >> well, i think i'll be careful to speculate on the prices on the share of the back of the results. when it comes to the outlook, it is actually a bit stronger than what we saw with a quarter ago we see demand falling from what we have seen in 2022 very strong year on record if you look at what has happened since our q3 and capital markets

in december, then the earlier reopening of china and the energy prices come ing off the o together and resulted in more constructive outlook for the aluminum markets for 2023. we see this in prices. they are up several hundred dollars from the start of the year. >> in terms of the outlook, let me round out what we expect from you for this year. what are you expecting specifically for raw material costs? >> we are expecting raw material costs to come off and they have done so already. if you look at the few loyal with coal and all of the main categories for aluminum metal, it is looking at q1 estimate results. those are coming in. the only raw material keeping stable due to markets specific

elements is the coal market. >> we are almost half of what we were trading for aluminum a year ago. of course, there were so many different headwinds facing the aluminum market in 2022. what is the outlook for 2023 especially with china coming back online? >> it is a big space with all of the moving parts in large part, we expect a balanced market with the oversupply in china looking lower than what we thought just some time ago. it is partly driven by expectation. it is also curtailments in china due to the energy situation in china. we have seen 1.3 million tons of smelters if you look at the demand for aluminum in the greener markets, low carbon, we expect a very different picture where we expect 3% demand to grow year over year for normal aluminum.

for green aluminum, that is at 20%. that is where we are positioning for 2023 and 2024 and decades to come >> i want to turn to geopolitical dimension the reports last week that the u.s. are considering applying sanctions on russian aluminum. i know in the past you have been vocal. i spoke to the ceo of hydro last month in davos she said you would encourage the europeans applying sanctions on russian aluminum how would that present an opportunity and why are these sanctions important? >> we believe sanctions are very important for one main reason. that's that we don't have an even playing field in europe for customers buying russian aluminum, they are buying at a discount which is those self

sanctions to russian products at this favor to ensure we don't have two markets for aluminum, we think sanctions in place is the correct thing to do. unfortunately, in the u.s., it didn't look like sanctions was the preferred end and tariffs that were in place are not as strong and sanctions would have been for global supply chain >> pal, let me round out the situation with the u.s. market i had a look through the pr presentation from the end of december what does the inflation reduction act mean and what does it present for you >> the inflation reduction act is strong for the eu we need to review it to make

sure we don't get competition. when we look at where we allocate our resources for implementing hydrogen, then the u.s. is more interesting than europe un unless something happens in europe, this will move across industries >> pal, thank you so much for joining us on earnings day the cfo of hydro. tensions with the u.s. and china are continuing over series of alleged air space intrusions. china has claimed that u.s. balloons have entered its air space without permission more than 10 times in the last 12 months which the white house has denied saying china has used balloons to violate the sovereignty of more than 40 countries u.s. senators will be briefed on the latest downed objects today as lawmakers criticize the lack of details released by the biden

administration armed forces committee member tom cotton is saying president biden is hiding. the u.s. secretary of state blinken is mulling a meeting with china this week this would be the first face-to-face meeting since the spy balloon incident >> and lloyd austin says the u.s. has acted cautiously in downing the objects. >> the safety and security of the american people is the president's and department's number one priority. i want to reassure americans these objects do not present a military threat to anyone on the ground they do, however, present a risk to civil aviation and pote potenpotential ly an intelligence collection threat we will get to the bottom of it. we have not been able to assess the recent objects are and we have acted out of an abundance

of caution to protect the security and interests >> sam has more on the story >> u.s. secretary of state blinken is weighing a meeting with the security conference this week. if both sides agree, it is the first face-to-face since the balloon drama compounded tensions the u.s. claims the balloon was used for sur vial eveillance an claims it was for weather research which entered u.s. air space by miss take this prompted blinken to cancel his trip to china. china initially expressed regret for the balloon straying off course and what analysts say was a fairly measured response the rhetoric changed after the u.s. shot it down.

beijing now widening the dispute accusing the u.s. of being engaged in a spy operation and tech advantage claiming u.s. balloons have illegally entered chinese air space ten times in the last year. the u.s. denies that claim the u.s. has detected more unidentified objects in its air space and chinese state media has reported on an unidentified flying object near the port city this has been dampening sentiment with the latest accusations keeping investors in a cautious mood today. in singapore, i'm sam baddas back to you. coming up on the program, holiday bookings continue. we'll break down the movers after this short break

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welcome back to "street signs. tui posted revenue of $3

billion. it is seeing encouraging bookings for the summer season and going in the opposite direction, shares in thyssenkrupp sales are dropping with the slump in the first quarter. annette has more with us it hasn't been easy for thyssenkrupp today's results are not helping for the company. >> not exactly if you look at what they are saying about the outlook, it is uncertain. the ceo is calling the outlook with limited visibility. they are sticking to guidance and also their loss with the free cash flow which has been cut to only 365 million. that was a lot worse in the quarter compared to last year.

still, the numbers are not good and orders are dropping by 12% operating income actually dropped by a third of course, it is crucial what the future holds for the company. they are saying they are progressing in the turn around there are so many moving parts and it is quite unclear whether the shares have a positive momentum ahead especially when it comes to the market dynamics. the prices for other materials are selling actually lower and the appetite from clients seems to be low. they have a huge automotive sector they will be less demand for products having said that, they are also saying they are sticking to the partial ipo plan for the

hydrogen unit net zero it is unclear when it will come because currently the market conditions are not right for it. they could actually give the go ahead every single day so they are ready to do so they are working on having the stand alone basis business in a nutshell, they are sticking to guidance. this company is still undergoing a huge transition. it is unclear how the future will look for thyssenkrupp >> annette, thank you. and bilfinger is posting a fuel year increase as the german construction company will post $4.6 billion in revenue this year european businesses need more political support. >> i think the industry is more on their own in that

the political area in europe is quite diversified. let me say it like that. it is difficult for clients to deal with that energy prices are up energy prices are down nuclear up nuclear down gas up gas down it doesn't make it easy for our clients to deal in an environment. it is important for them to give a part of the work on the side and on the plants and existing efforts to an out sourced compan to take over and especially with raw material and energy costs and wages and labor to get stabilization to declines. brussels and berlin and definitely is not supporting. and ford plans to cut 3,800 jobs in product development and administration in europe in the next few years it is a move over cost pressure as it focuses on evs.

ford has plans for the $3.5 billion investment to build a plant in michigan using technology licensed from chinese companies. ford ceo said the economics of the investment have been improved by the u.s. reduction act. speaking to cnbc, jim farley spoke out. >> this is a wholly owned subsidiary of ford it is our investment that is as simple as it needs to be based on that, whether it is in review, it is based on our i investment >> it is clear from this, this is a good example of a company that is betting big on the u.s although they are an american automaker and reducing the size of the footprint in europe cutting 3,800 engineering and

administration jobs on the continent and spreading out to factories. they want to focus more and invest more in the electric vehicle future that is coming at the expense of jobs, specifically in europe. >> it is a good proxy for the auto sector. they are trying to streamline and take out costs because of how costly the ev investment is. you look at ford and the other piece to the story and alongside the job cuts in europe is the collaboration they have announced with the chinese supplier for this new battery plant in michigan. the u.s., we have seen companies there, automakers take advantage of president biden's incentives around electric vehicles bringing more production to the u.s. and hoping that this also translates to more demand for evs. it feels like this whole story of putting the pieces together is a proxy for across the

sector >> one comment from the head of ford germany is interesting. he is saying there is work to be done on drive trains moving out of combustion engines. less engineering work isrequire the uk is looking at issues with the debt load with the eu we will discuss more after the break.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines >> ueda will do his best if the japanese parliament confirms his nomination to lead the bank of japan with market watchers expecting him to keep the policy loose. top u.s. and chinese

officials weigh holding face-to-face talks at the munich security conference. and stocks sink for thyssenkrupp as they warn slowing economic growth is dragging down steel prices. summer the holiday bookings surge at tui as customers shrug off cost of living after years of restricted travel we're about an hour and a half into the european trading session. we have green across the board equities continuing the march higher building on the gains from yesterday the stoxx 600 marked the fourth positive session in the last five we are also seeing action in bond markets today european yields lower across the region all of this ahead of the u.s.

cpi print. it will have an impact on trade on both sides of the atlantic. here is the picture and the lead up to the important report with the forex markets. we have sterling trading firmly against the u.s. dollar. euro also trading higher against the greenback. up .40%. 107.58 the dollar on the back foot against the yen. that trade driven by what is happening in japan the yen side of that trade is 131.94 u.s. futures are looking at a modestly positive start this morning. fairly muted as investors appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of the u.s. cpi print. joumanna and i will do a deep dive on the cpi later in the program. stay tuned the eu says it expects the bloc to avoid recession and lifting outlook to 0.8% growth

this year. the commission now expects the eu and euro to avoid technical recession. the group also says eurozone inflation peaked and will fall to 2.5% by 2024. sylvia joins us from brussels. the eye of the storm i want to say, but the forecasts coming from there is a minister meeting taking place sylvia, let's start with the outlook for this year. it was higher than people had anticipated. markets were surprised yesterday that they upgraded forecasts by 0.5% >> reporter: exactly essentially the outlook is looking a lot better than three months ago, joumanna there are two reasons behind that first and foremost, it is about the fiscal the support that the european finance ministers put forward throughout 2022 and then it is also, let's not forget,

about the lower energy costs with prices coming down at the back end of 2022 that provided a relief not just for 2022, but also providing more momentum to the european economy in 2023. i had the chance to speak to some of the finance ministers as they arrived this morning for the meeting among the members of the eu the finance minister of france commented on the fact that the french economy, although expected to grow only at 0.8% this year, it is the fact that the numbers are positive which is good news take a look. >> we have a positive gdp rate we had over the last quarter of 2022 with the growth of 0.2% which is positive figure for our country. we expect a positive growth for

2023 everybody was explaining to us and to all your countries we have to face a recession, deep recession everywhere in europe this is not the case the new forecast is far more positive the european economy is doing well the french economy is doing well we have very low level of inflation rate we have a positive growth. we are creating jobs some so things are going in the right direction. >> and let's not forget as well that there is a huge challenge for the finance ministers at this stage their plan is to return to some finance in 2024 after three

years of loose fiscal policy at the same time, they want to invest more on the green transition also in the context of those subsidies that the united states announced. i have to say from the eu, there is the concern that germany is the biggest economy in the eurozone which will have more power to support companies over there. for some smaller european countries, that is a problem they are saying they are more concerned about german subsidies than american subsidies. i asked the german finance minister what is his response and what guarantee is he giving to the eu. take a look. >> you want to foster the competitiveness of the economy and the european economies as a whole. this means focus on the supply side of the economies. modernizing the labor markets for example. we need better quality of public

sector investment, not more quantity of public sector investment i can assure all member states, germany will keep level playing field and i invite colleagues to consider with us measures of how to foster competitiveness without spending more and more money. we can't afford entering competition with the united states who is able to pay more subsidies and who can afford more public sector spending. besides that, about 800 billion euro program offers more public sector investment than the inflation reduction act. >> reporter: the german finance minuteister there with the guarantee of the state subsidies

and also providing a level playing field across the eu. the finance ministers are debating this right now. let's see what comments we gather later on today. for the time being, this is initial discussion and we still have to wait a couple more months to see how the europeans respond to the american subsidy asubsidy. >> thank you for that story. policymakers are meeting in dubai. leaders will discuss how future governments will be shaped let's get to hadley with more. >> reporter: joulzulianna, thats correct. we have a host setting the tone at the world government summit one is the managing director of the imf. i spoke with her on my panel this morning

the topic this morning is days away from the anniversary of the invasion of ukraine by vladimir putin. i asked the managing director of the imf how much money ukraine will need in 2023. listen in. >> ukraine needs around $40 billion to $48 billion this year as financial support for the country to function. it will be helped by european union and u.s. and others, but we as an institution with longstanding relations with ukraine strongly believe we have to play a stabilizing role by being there for the ukrainian economy and ukrainian people >> reporter: one of the big questions off the back of the intervention from the west is one of money and whether or not

the money that is going to ukraine today is going to get to those who most need it that is, of course, because this is a country prior to the invasion was one of the most corrupt in the world i asked the managing director of the imf specifically about that. is that money going to get to the places that it needs to go and how can you ensure that the corruption is actually decreasing and she said interestingly that the war in her mind has actually pushed ukrainians to form the institutions they need to tackle all of those serious, serious allegations of corruption. it seems as if, from her perspective, they are doing a better job now prior to the invasion i asked the minister of the economy in the uae to speak to the issue of corruption. this industry has been battling corruption now back in 2022, the united states put them on the gray list. listen in to what he had to say.

>> the laundering policy and standards and enforcement and we find especially in the lack of understanding. there are a lot of things happening in the uae with the war, the uae is pushin hard on the aspects. if you read the reports that recently came out, the first paragraph or so talked about how the uae really improved a lot. any nation that can do such improvement in a short period of time we are serious about it. no economy in the world wants money laundering there is no growth in that >> that was the uae minister of economy addressing directly the charges that have been brought by the united states and other western nations this is a country that is also fighting corruption and issues with money laun laundering there are steps taken. you have to remember what we have seen in the last several

months are a huge number of folks from russia and money coming to this country this is, as the uae, allowed a banking license to be opened by a russian lender that was in the last couple months certainly the eyes of the west are continuing to be square on what is happening in the uae and in dubai particular. the minister is saying we are working as effectively as possible to ensure that activity is not taking place. guys. >> hadley, thank you for your coverage. also coming up on the show, the u.s. cpi is coming out today to show the prices moderating in january. we will tell the yyou what it m for the fed. the countdown to the formula 1 kicks off the season we will hear from the nangmagi

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the countdown is on to the

start of the formula 1 season. fans of the series can expect a record-breaking number of races this year at 23. the first official fixture particu kicking off at bahrain next month. the formula 1 aston martin revealed the latest car ahead of the season arabile talked about the business with the executive chairman >> we have the critically an claimed best suv in the marketplace by all of the journalists with the dpx 707 the most recent launch the order books have never been stronger we are about to launch the next generation sports cars which is the foundations i have been working on the last three years since taking over as executive

chairman all of our sports cars starting later in the year will get delivery the business has never been better to that extent, we bought another 10% of the company the future is fantastic. the cars are coming. fundamentals of the business are strong demand has never been stronger >> you were -- i can imagine so. it did drop down with the number of vehicles you anticipated to sell plus or minus 600,000. that is the average figure how do you raise that number to 10,000 by 2025 >> part of the reason they dropped down is so supply chain issues, not demanded demand is stronger than 600,000 vehicles we struggled with supply chain issues last year

the journey to get to 10,000 is in the midst of happening. one is the dbx which will get to 4,000 units of volume and the launch of the sports cars and valhalla, that will bring the business to 10,000 units >> we asked what success on the f1 grid would mean >> a big step forward from last year we tied for sixth last year with the amount of points with the team in front of us. tied for sixth in points we made great progress in the second half of last year i continue to build on that momentum of where we finished last year. last few races, we were fighting for points and podiums it is to take a step forward switching back to markets. the u.s. inflation print is

expected to show price pressure moderating on the annual basis january cpi forecast is expected to rise 6.2% on the year according to dow jones industrial average cpi forecast is expected to rise on the month of 0.4% happy to say that richard kelly is here with us at the desk. great to have you with us in person let's talk about the inflation print. the forecast consensus is 0.4% month on month i get the feeling that the whisper number is higher i'm reading more comments about the exact that some of the core inflation pressures are proven to be persistent than a couple of months ago. what is your expectation >> we are sitting at a point of core headline can be higher gas prices have come back. you are right. there is an interesting divide in the market. the market is very much prepared for upside risk. it sees payroll print and ism

and thinks this is just going to continue there is the discussion of the method changes and seasonality if you look at the economic consensus, it is split with .3 and .4 >> i think it is interesting the bureau of labor statistics revised from the summer. the seasonal adjustments and the methods will be factored in. is the high level take away here being the process of the goods started to flow? >> that is a big part of it. you have seen .40% shaved. that is close to zero. the service side is constant there is probably just starting to see shelter come off. that is the one the fed is focused on and the markets should be focused on and that gives us the bias of sticky

territory for inflation. >> it is interesting the market is prepared for upside risk in the inflation report today what does that mean for the market reaction we could see if the report is hotter than expected >> if it comes in hotter, there is still a bit of position squeeze in the market. we started off the year off to the races for risk and dollar depreciation you see the market pull back on that you have euro/dollar at levels you can get the positioning squeeze in fx markets. at the same time in rates, you broken through key levels. i think you are capped by the fact that the fed can say we are only hiking twice and going in i think near-term upside for inflation and near-term for nominal rates. >> what would it take for you to think the fed will achieve inflation? >> i think the market can ebb and flow the debate is how much does the

fed need to hike to slow down the labor market you are not seeing it yet. you will have the fed hike two more times at least. the lags will come through later this year. you will get the recession that is the debate you saw some people thinking we will start the year with a recession. the risk is more on the back half of the year. >> it is interesting i was looking at the discrepancy with the hard data and soft data the soft data is showing remarkable signs of slowdown which is why many people are saying the u.s. may enter recession later this year. to come back to what you were saying about the fed and they could have two 25 basis point hikes left why not more than that they have guided to a 5% to 5.25% terminal rate? >> that is the risk. the risk is they get there and decide we still need to go further. we are not seeing a softening in the labor market or we get a

pause and they come back later this is the risk the labor market is not softening. we saw the same in the uk data this morning there is still pent-up savings we get retail sales numbers this morning. >> earlier this year, the big thing for markets was central bank pivot we talked about the fact that the market was pricing in central bank cutting rates by the end of the year and beginning of 2025. sorry. 2024 rather. also, i think it is apparent p t -- apparent that the market got ahead of itself. so long as the data is stronger, they have to keep restrictive rates for longer >> they have to price in the tails. as we were going into the last year, there was the fear factor that inflation was on going to run amuck and central banks would have to overtighten. now markets got ahead and inflation will go away and you don't have to do the right

thing. what you see is inflation remains persistent the fed needs to leave rates higher for longer. once they ease, they can probably cut rates faster than expected >> you mentioned the dichotomy with services and goods inflation and the focus has shifted to services inflation in the last few months. in the last two weeks, there has been renewed focus on the goods side of things one data point we talked about yesterday on the show is used car prices showing signs of edging higher again after declining. there are other supply chain issues coming back into the mix. how about is the goods side of the inflation equation now >> it is more than a rounding error, but more something that moves a couple points around services what you are seeing globally is telling you we should expect another 6 to 12months of acceleration in goods production the production side is coming

off. that is softening. this should take demand pressure off. it is a question of if you can get a lot of deflation or disinflation, it helps offset services. >> can i take it to stock markets? a lot of debate in the paradigm shift with growth stocks no longer an option no longer an attractive invest m ment -- investment >> it gives you longer duration trades within equities same within rates. if you have ten-year nominal ne yields, it is staying closer to 4% a lot of that has already happened you are seeing that shift within equities the trend in equities is looking like it is going higher. you will see more attractiveness in credit. if i take where that base was before, i can go in the credit with the companies and start to continue to see tightening on

that side. >> richard, we will leave it there. thank you for joining us richard kelly. head of global strategy from td securities let's get a check of the markets into the all-important u.s. inflation number. positive indices we are starting off the week in the green. of course, a lot may change depending on the u.s. cpi print. >> here is the picture for the u.s. future. green across the board. dow and nasdaq and s&p gaining ground ahead of the print. that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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day's the day. the market moving inflation report and what investors hope is a good number the head of calsters is not optimistic. and the classified briefing today on the military shoot down of balloons. and the new nec chief economic adviser. and a gunman leaves three