day's the day. the market moving inflation report and what investors hope is a good number the head of calsters is not optimistic. and the classified briefing today on the military shoot down of balloons. and the new nec chief economic adviser. and a gunman leaves three dead at michigan state

university police are searching for ab answers. and the central bank leadership shakeup signaling changes. it is valentine's day. february 14th. this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon or good evening. as always, welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching, i'm brian sullivan thank you for joining us here. let's kickoff the hour with the check of u.s. stock futures. they are little change, no surprise i say no surprise because we have the inflation report out at 8:30 a.m dow futures up 29. nasdaq up a little bit don't expect, i could be wrong, don't expect the major move ahead of that. all of this coming off another good day for stocks. all of the averages on monday up more than 1%

the s&p 500 jumped 8% so far this year. by the way, that's about historical average for a normal full year. in a few moments, you will hear why one investor in america is weary right now of equities. that's in a minute in bonds, 10-year treasury under 3.7% in energy, oil is down a touch, but that is off the cash close oil is about to break above $80. $79.15 this as the government gets set to sell another 26 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve. this is part of the sale approved by congress a long time ago. some tried to stop it. it does not happen we will drain that spr a lot of buying that has to happen to get that refilled.

natural gas is still below $2.50 a unit that is with freeport lng first export since the june fire that shut it down that is a major export facility. that was a huge amount of exports of natural gas that were offline allowing inventory to build and prices to come down. by the way, i'll play meteorologist here for a minute. it will be about 60 degrees in parts of the northeast this week yesterday, literally, out in the yard with my dogs and my son in a t-shirt in new jersey in february it is almost spring-like weather. demand for natural gas, not because i like the weather, but natural gas demand is way down we are not cranking the heat amid the crackdown in crypto, bitcoin and ethereum higher. lower than they were last week bitcoin at $21,800

let's get the check in asia and in europe with joumanna bercetche in the london newsroom joumanna >> good morning, brian to build on what you were saying on energy prices, dutch ttx prices are the lowest in the year behind me, you can see the price action today is pretty positive building on a solid start to the week yesterday the ftse 100 is up .40%. just about to break through 8,000 on the upside which is a key level. dax in germany up .20% adidas is the stock we looked at last week. even the defensive index, the swiss index, up .50% credit suisse is seeing a rebound. in ternms of major news overnight, the government of japan has nominated ueda to succeed kuroda as the governor

of the central bank. the ten-year jgb is the upper level of the yield curve control range. there are views they may look to move way from the easing monetary policy. another stock in focus is adani. the adani group appointed the firm grant thornton. this is in the wake of the hindenberg research which led to $100 billion in market cap lost. it is a positive endorsement that they have brought on external auditor. and ford will plan to cut 3,800 jobs in product development and administration the carmaker says it is in relation to cost pressure. that is up 3.4%.

3,800 jobs lost in europe is significant. brian. >> yes, it is. joumanna bercetche, i appreciate that now let's get to the top corporate stories and headlines and what could be a big move off the federal reserve. silvana henao is here with that and more good morning, silvana. >> brian, good morning let's start with president biden because he is said to name a federal reserve vice chair lael brainard on the council. official announcement is expected this week amazon takeover target and vacuum maker irobot is planning to cut 7% of work force or85 employees. this coming after the company reported84 million in losses for the quarter on sales of $358 million. irobot expects a muted first quarter for 2023

and cnbc sister network nbc sports is preparing to make a quote aggressive offer for broadcasting rights. the nba cannot formally begin negotiations with companies other than warner bros., discovery and disney before april of 2024 unless they waive rights amazon also expressed interests to buying the rights, brian. >> that would be a big move. we are part of the nbc family. it would be exciting for us. >> very exciting >> yeah. let's go, rockets. thank you, silvana. to your markets and money and ahead of the inflation report we sat down with chris ailman. he is the head of the fund calsters we talked about the stocks and his base case for the economy and the equity markets

>> i feel like every year i say it is an uncertain future. this is really strange you get inflation numbers and you get unemployment numbers that are strong. i still think we're going to have a recession, but maybe, maybe jay powell will pull off a soft landing boy, the markets think he will in usa and in europe, explain why europe is so strong in this environment? it is amazing. a light winter, but, man, it is hard to figure out if you are bearish, you are getting hurt by this market rallying it is tough to figure out where to be. >> it is with europe, obviously, we have reported on the energy crisis. it is turning into a financial issue. they are spending hundreds to make sure they don't go down the economic drain let's focus on the u.s chris, let's say the base case

is a mild and short recession. let's assume that is the best case a technical multiquarter recession. has the stock market priced that in with the declines last year and reduction in multiples >> in >> well, that's what the inflows want you to believe, brian i feel the market is overpriced and overbought it keeps rallying. there is money flowing into the usa kcontinually. look at the earnings reports in the first quarter. they were not really very good news that hasn't slowed the market down at all. this is an environment for pe expansion. the earnings are going to come down any time the fed raises rates over 450 basis points in a short period of time and you will see more pain i think it is still coming then again, i'm stymied by the market it rallies on a regular basis.

watch the unemployment numbers that's going to constantly tell us something obviously the fed is data dependent. maybe, like i said, jay powell pulled off the miracle we'll see. >> in the '70s, we got a number of bear market rallies 20% or 30% before continuing to decline. do you feel that's what this is or not as severe as the '70s you are nervous. >> brian, you hit it on the head the portfolio is defensive that worked against us in the last seven months. i would hope it is not '73 or '74 bear market. that was horrible. i hope we see a market decline i said i thought the market could give up 20% during the year right now, that doesn't look

app plausible. just because the yield curve is inverted means it doesn't cause a recession. it portended a recession the fed has to slow the economy to get a lid on inflation. inflation is lightening up so far. >> the stocks that have gotten bought this year and we look at them all the time and show to the viewers, they got destroyed. the mirror image, the opposite of 2022. i don't understand who is doing the buying, do you >> no, i don't there is still a big retail influence. the robinhood traders are still there. they are off in options and daily traded options what i'm seeing is a rotation of the active managers trying to buy value because they think recession is coming. they are trying to unload stocks

with a dividend and own something with value through this the technology stocks are the ones laying people off it is a difficult environment for people to invest and make money. it is a time to pick your asset allocation and stick with it and hopefully have enough diversification to balance the portfolio. bonds now have a yield that gives you an option to balance your plortfolio you can't be in all-in stocks. >> what is the infrastructure and private equity outlook >> i'm tough because they have not marked down the portfolios much bonds why down double digit. private equity was flat. the market has to come up so justify the values or we see write-downs.

you see they are having a tougher time raising new money a lot of portfolios are at max to take in private equity. sure there is new money in the middle east and asia, but it is just not a huge flow of money going in i think you are right. the ebita multiples with the higher interest rates and cost to capital, you will expect slower returns private equity is a five-to-seven year investment. on the point on infrastructure, brian, you raised a great one. the infrastructure of the world is still crumbling they did not repair it during the pandemic now we have a massive energy transition i see that as a mega trend which is a risk and also an opportunity. infrastructure is going to play a big part of that not just in traditional renewable energies, but in energy distribution and power distribution a lot of areas that needs

long-term capital. that is where we are long term and patient for a steady rate of return. >> as always, our thanks to chris ailman little nervous on the equity markets. we have a lot to do on tuesday. former morgan stanley's asia chairman stephen roach with us over the bank of japan changes and more. and apple with diversification hurdles as they move away from china and the super bowl numbers are in it was a good night for fox and the nfl. we're back in a minute

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quarter results beat forecast. they said the commercial business is above pre-lockdown levels demand for leisure travel is stronger in the holidays have you rented a car lately have you seen the bills? it is not all wine and roses. shares of solar edge are dropping solar power company with revenue guidance on the low end of what some analysts were looking for solar edge down 5% on deck, the morning rbi is back tracking super bowl advertisers and stocks and their one-year returns. the results may surprise you and not in a gd y.oowa we're back after this. this is ge aerospace,

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welcome back let's get a check of the headlines and breaking news as well including the horrible shooting at michigan state last night that left three dead and the campus traumatized phillip mena is in new york with more >> brian, shelter in place has been lifted at michigan state university after a mass shooting left three people dead and five others in critical condition campus activities are canceled for the next two days after an hours long manhunt where police announced the suspect was found dead he was identified as a 43-year-old man not affiliated with the university.

an investigation is ongoing. later this morning, the senate will receive a classified briefing on the three unidentified objects shutdown from the military since friday this comes as the biden administration is facing st scrutiny over the response to the objects. the first was the chinese spy balloon on february 4th. and the kansas city chiefs will have their parade tomorrow. fox sports announced 113 million viewers tuned in on sunday the third most watched of all time and the biggest super bowl audience in six years, brian >> wow that, indeed, was a big one. tough night. i have friends whose kids go to michigan state i listened to the police scanner for two hours last night

so much confusion. bad night in lansing phillip mena, thank you. >> you got it, brian >> glad everything for now settled down back to business we will speak with former morgan stanley asia chair stephen roach with the issues with china and the potential slolutions to try to diffuse the situation. and check out t-mobile reporting thousands of outages last night t-mobile is working on resolving the problem that caused intermittent problems with voice and messaging in service areas the service should be back to normal levels. t-mobile stock not moving. we are taking a short break and be back right after this that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience.

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could the good times for stocks be running out? the warning from one major bank ahead. get ready. the latest read on inflation should move markets either way. and apple's production pivot from china hitting a few bumps in the road. it is tuesday, february 14th this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back.

i'm brian sullivan happy valentine's day. home of the $75 flowers and prefixed menu. stocks are up a little bit dow futures are up 27. don't expect much change in the futures ahead of the 8:30 a.m. eastern time inflation number. that is going to be, i'm confident saying this, the market mover of the day. 8:30 a.m by the way, before we go on, a quick note there were adjustments as steve liesman will point out, the comparisons from the last couple months may be off a bit they were revised up from december late last week. the comps are different. they are lowering the waiting and how much used cars matter. steve will be along to clarify it all it is comparing apples to oranges. i can confirm apples and oranges

are still expensiexpensive. all this coming off another good day for stocks and averages on monday up more than 1% with that, the s&p 500 is jumped 8% so far this year. good year. not everyone is convinced this is how things are going to go from here. late yesterday, jpmorgan chase put out a note to clients. we see the equity risk reward has skewed to the down side as upside potential for markets is fairly limited given stretched valuation and high rates downside could be meaningful eg, persisting high terminal rates or a resurge of geopolitical risk. one wonders if the last part is a reference to the balloon and other objects which is going on which may also explain this. one of the biggest aerospace and

etfs is doing well ita. popping in the last few days no surprise there. in energy, oil is closing back in on $80 a barrel as the american government gets set to sell another 26 million barrels from the spr a long ago preplanned sale by congress it is still going on we have a lot to refill. crude oil down a little bit. natural gas is below $2.50 per unit we noted before and we don't do the weather, but it is 60 degrees in the northeast this week demand for things like natural gas is going to be way, way down i don't know if we're on pace for the warmest february ever and i know we have two weeks to go, but if we're not at the most, the warmest, it has to be close. people were in t-shirts and

shorts jogging outside yesterday. let's get a check on money headlines and apple hitting snags trying to move some of the manufacturing out of china silvana henao is back with that and an interesting move by walmart. silvana. >> brian, let's start with apple. fa facing obstacles in moving to india. they are sending designers to factories in india to train locals and help establish production half of the components made for iphones at the factory are in good enough shape to be sent to foxconn for assembly the paper says apple's push to expand in india has been slow due to challenges with logistics and tariffs and infrastructure the financial times report that amazon's ceo is vowing to

double down on the struggling grocery business the company paused expansion of the fresh supermarkets and cashier-less cas cashi cashier-less convenience stores. walmart is shutting three technology hubs in the u.s according to the reports, the offices are located in austin, texas, carlsbad, california and portland, oregon it is asking workers to relocate to keep their jobs and nearly all technology employees across the company would be expected to work in their offices for at least two days a week. brian. >> two days. not the end of the world silvana, thank you silvana henao in the office five days a week. >> yeah. let's get to the global markets and seismic shift in

asia breaking overnight japan nominating 71-year-old central bank board member ueda if confirmed by the parliament, ueda would succeed kuroda. leadership shakeup could mean changes in higher rates, maybe, in the near term for japan all this as tensions rise between america and china with the u.s. military combing through the wreckage of the downed chinese balloon and what is amounting to a war of words with d.c. and beijing with other surveillance practices let's talk about this with stephen roach. former chair of morgan stanley asia and is out with a new book called "accidental conflict.

stephen, good to have you back on i look forward to reading the book it does feel whatever these objects are, one was a balloon we don't know what the others are and we don't know where they came from. a lot of talk about china. whatever it feels like we're creeping down a bad road with our largest competitor and adversary what's your take >> well, first of all, brian, happy valentine's day do you i would be remiss if i didn't offer that >> thank you >> it feels like early stages of the second cold war. i'm reminded when the former soviet union shot down the u2 spy plane in 1960 which ushered in the most dangerous part of that cold war.

the rhetoric escalating on both sides from the u.s. and china with denials and allegations going back and forth and breakdown of communication is -- has all of the trappings of the very worrisome escalation in conflict between, yes, our largest trading partner and the world's second super power look, in the last five years, we have gone from trade war to tech war to now a new cold war. it won't take much to spark a major accidental conflict which as you noted is the title of my new book >> i'm not going to ask you to dig into whatever the objects are. you probably don't know. maybe you do know. i don't know the american government apparently doesn't know. if they know, they are not

telling us, stephen. there have been some reports that i have read, wall street research, whatever, that suggest that there could be signs of a sort of a breach between president xi jinping and the army do you sense having lived in china and worked in china and knowing china so well that there could be some kind of a power struggle within china? >> absolutely not. the very first thing that xi jinping did, brian, when he ascended to his current position was really to consolidate his control over the people's liberation army. he spent a lot of time building alliances and replacing senior officers in the pla whose loyalty might have been questioned and now is unflappabl

when it comes to working closely with the leaders of the parties. i think these rumors are without any substance. i think xi jinping is in very firm control of the pla. >> it would probably be good for the world if we had a better relationship than a worse relationship with china. i know that is some really, you know, high level stuff that i threw at you, stephen. we don't need armed conflict in your new book with, you talk about potential solutions. if you are going to advise the u.s. government or the chinese government, what they could do or one easy step -- it is valentine's day, right you have a spat with your loved one and you got to start to make up what would be the first move that each side could and should make >> let me give you an answer quickly. let me say one thing before that

contrary to what you might hear on your program or what we hear all over america, america doesn't have a china problem china does en't have an america problem. we have a relationship problem that needs a relationship solution my first step and appropriate on valentine's day is to move from distrust to trust. there is a lot of easy things we can do in rebuilding trust like reopening closed consulates or restarting foreign exchange programs or relaxing restrictions on visa requirements or relaxes restrictions on ngos a little tougher to do big things like global health and cyber and climate change we can't do anything without trust. my book concludes with the three-part plan. i'll give you the first part because i want you to read the book, brian. you asked me for one thing

trust is more important than anything there is no trust right now with the united states and china. >> you wonder and we'll read the book stephen, how long would it take if the moves were made to bring that trust back. trust is earned, not given we will look forward to reading the book stephen roach. i want a signed copy i i'll pay for it. >> good you will pay for it. >> i'll pay full price i want dear insert name here thank you for having me on your show >> always a pleasure. >> you have a good day stephen, thank you very much coming up, your morning rbi and potential return rate for companies and the costly super bowl commercials is it worth it to buy an ad? we have numbers that say it's not. we'll show them to you coming

up

welcome back a market slash for tesla workers in new york state are launching a unionization campaign the auto pilot technology plant in buffalo said to email mil el muskunionize.

time for a tuesday rbi although the super bowl was sunday, honestly, we were too tired to put this together yesterday. let's stay football and money. as you enjoyed a great game and couple of decent customers, eh, most were unremarkable and our team at cnbc was putting together money stats around how much it cost to buy an ad. of course, the companies measure success in many ways from a stock perspective, it doesn't look great here are returns from the stocks and advertisers in last year's big game year over year rocket, 29% drop square space down 30%. draft kings down 30% and an amazon down 39%. look at these.

coinbase is down 72% vroom down 86% that looks good compared to carvana. down 93% ftx lost 100% of value because they went bust and subject to the biggest fraud case in the history of humanity. not good does that mean there is some automatic relation with the super bowl and advertisers and stock performance? absolutely not there are tons of factors for everything all stocks all situations are different you see last year a lot of newer companies wanted to make a splash and take a moonshot by buying a multimillion dollar ad. this year, it was different. most of the advertisers were more old school. multibillion dollar brands with huge marketing budgets if you didn't know, here they

are. budweiser and p&g and google and pepsi and square space again stellantis owner of the dodge ram trucks. t-mobile, unilever we created a super bowl for stocks we put all of them in a screener and we will track all of the big spenders to see which of those stocks quote wins the next year and which stock may be totally m muffs it super bowl ads big bucks. see you in a year. random and expensive as we head to break, during february, we are celebrating black heritage with our teammates and contributors and business leaders

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affiliation with the school. our thoughts with the faculty and member of the spartan family president biden set to name lael brainard to lead the national economic council. and ford is cutting 3,800 jobs in europe as they focus on electric vehicles. and adani group is hiring grant thornton for the review over the hindenberg allegations. and nbc universe allal lookt win back nba rights for the next few years. and crossing moments ago, reuters reporting that paramoun

global is working with advisers on possible sale of simon & schuster for more on the big cpi report and what it means for the market and your money, let's bring in two of our favorite people kevin simpson at capital wealth planning and michelle girard, head of nat west markets we have the wonky revisions released in the dark last week, michelle, which changes the comparisons a bit. it is weird. what are you looking for >> you know, they do this every year with the seasonal factors all it does is it raised the revised numbers to look at higher q4 inflation at the end of last year that was offset by lower inflation earlier in the year. it has to do with the spreading of the numbers it did not effect our numbers

with the forecast expectations for today. on the margin, it maybe put downward pressure on estimates we are looking for an overall gain of .40 and core rate gain of high .30. honestly, brian, the market has worked off and in the wake of the strong employment numbers and fearing an upside surprise on inflation the market is priced in a lot in terms of bad news, if you will, on high inflation print. we got the numbers we are looking for which are below consensus. the market would be relieved >> kevin, i feel like calsters cio chris ailman told us this morning that everybody is in the soft landing camp. >> who wouldn't want to be our case is it is a challenge for everything to work out

perfectly and to michelle's point if the cpi number today surprises to the upside, and i know that is not their base case, it could provide volatility in the markets. the idea disinflation is a linear inflection is difficult to get my head around. we sauw service pmi come around. we saw cpi punch us in the gut awe few times. this could come in hotter than expected i don't think that is a break in the trend. that doesn't mean inflation is coming back. if we had a cooling period and we get a hotter than expected number, it could spook the market short-term. >> michelle, give us -- you said .30% or .40% with matthew mcconaughey in "the wolf of wall street." if it comes in at .3 or .4, how

much delta are we looking for here >> that is the thing the market with the 10-year yields risen 30 basis points 2-year yields risen over 40 basis points the market has moved a lot that is where if it comes in at .40 or something below that, i would think the market could rally in relief. if you get a higher number or high core rate number, is the market going to start to price in a lot more federal reserve in hikes than it has in the wake of that very strong employment report it seems to me the risk/reward in terms of the reaction of the number is a little bit skewed given the fact we have seen a sharp sell off in markets and already a change of expectation around how much the fed has to

do in the wake of strong employment numbers last week >> kevin, if you said everybody wants to be in the soft landing camp, why not? good news is better than bad news if we get good news and inflation continues to moderate, do we keep buying stocks given the s&p 500 is up 8% this year >> i think markets are ahead of the skis right now the prices are inflated. the cpi print will have little effect over the short-term the consensus is pushing the pivot out. maybe we were so enthusiastic, the fed could lower rates this year markets shot out of the gate like a cannon to begin 2023. in reality, that enthusiasm may be a little premature. our base case is for the next three, six or nine months, we could be in a range-bound

market i would not be going all-in with the euphoria that stocks are going up 7% and compound into an incredible year. you have to remain defensidefen. our thesis is be invested, but look for lower beta names and cash on cash dividend. the stock market will go up. it will pivot with a hard landing or soft landing. i'm not convinced it will happen this year. >> kevin, a the follow-up to you first, michelle. if we had gains, are we in >> i think wherever the stock market is today, it should be at the end of the year. >> you know, i'll jump in. kevin, you are right in the sense the truth is the market has done a lot for now the real question about the fed that we need to know won't be

answered later this year they are likely to pause and see what happens whether or not they then have to go even higher than they think because inflation doesn't get all the way down to 2 or whether or not that is it or they can think about pivoting -- we with won't know that until much later in the year. i have to say from the macro standpoint that we are range bound for a period of time makes sense. >> worst-case scenario, michelle, we get a hot cpi number and cool producer number on thursday, how do we read it if they are going in the opposite direction >> the cpi is always more important in terms of the market reaction the fed will like the ppi coming down that is the leading against wholesale prices to give us awe clu -- us a clue of consumer prices the market will take the cpi

being hot more than low ppi report >> michelle and kevin, thanks. also, i don't know if you know this the rbi. this is random, but interesting. my final ever guests on "worldwide exchange. >> congratulations on the new show >> exciting on the new show. exactly. >> thank you thank you. somebody says who is the last guest for brian? it was kevin simpson and michelle girard. this is bittersweet. my final "worldwide exchange." we had a pandemic in the middle of it and broadcasting from the bathroom for a while through it all, proud of what we built this morning later on, we call our team small, but mighty. they come in in the middle of darkness and bust their tails. best in the business ann, jason, evan, adam, kate,

michelle, eric, ralph, everybody in the past. carissa. my dog kevin flynn. you helped me work on the show as well. nambi. we leave it in great hands frank holland will do a fantastic job. in the meantime, i'm inverting the dial going from first to last and last call is going to launch march 8th we are working on the show now it looks fantastic it is different from anything on cnbc tune in. march 8th. i'll be off and on until then. thank you all for everything over the last five years god bless. "squawk box" is next

good morning love for inflation data. u.s. futures turning higher as investors wait for the first of two big reports that could definitely be market moving. tesla workers in new york want to unionize demands to musk. higher pay unless workplace monitoring. and palantir getting investor love today after results. it is tuesday, february 14th and love is in the air we'll play the song you just can't hear enough. "squawk box" song. valentine's day. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning weom