that's the thing that's most corrosive to your average household's financial condition and feeling so i think that's probably a challenge i don't think it's insurmountable this is a very tight committee right now. they're all pretty much on the same page because they know this one job they have to do. >> see what we get tomorrow. mike, thanks for your last word. that's mine. see you tomorrow "fast money" is now. right now on "fast," six-month treasuries closing above 5% the one-year within a whisper of that level too this as inflation is stuck, subornly high levels what's this move in fixed income saying plus, a five-star quarter for airbnb shares flying hour after eare earnings on an upbeat. time to fade the farm trade? trade school on tesla? battery troubles and the options action on nvidia's red hot rebound. i'm melissa lee.

tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nato an enjudd judy beal. stocks turned sharply negative while the nasdaq falling more man 1% but after philly fed president said rate hikes are closer to an end and nasdaq end in the green yields largely pushed their way higher with the six-month t-bill closing above 5% hitting its highest level since 2007 let's bring in steve liesman you have details on brainard's regular significance nation. >> the federal reservejust announced that the fed vice chair lael brainard will be effective february 20th. brainard a longtime federal of the fed appointed director of the national economic council and leaves a hole in the

leadership as it battles inflation andfigures out how far to go. while it was only a tenth of expectations markets looking for details came to the realization the fed, same one they've been trying to hammer, bringing it to %, will be harder than the markets perhaps expected conrad dequadros says there is no slicing or dice of the data table. they're in virtual agreement and rates are more hawkish a tweak down to 5.07 by the end. for fed officials made clear they see rate behinds ahead. summarizing the comments with the title of the speech, quote, our work is not dong, melissa. >> it felt almost like the fed officials today and there are a lot talking whether it be in interviews or speeches, et cetera, were basically grabbing the markets by their lapels

saying, listen, we mean it higher for longer. we mean it and maybe the markets are starting to respond. i'm wondering, steve, from your perspective when it comes to harker, we attributed the market turnaround to harker's comments specifically we were chatting here on the desk about that and we were all sort of scratching our heads, thinking, we didn't hear too much different from what we already knew >> no, i didn't. on this issue i would not look to harker for leadership i think harker is one of those ones who -- i think he's right they're closer to being done but it's the whole thing here that we're talking about what has happened with this inflation report, melissa, two thing, one the realization, disinflation is not a linear process and there will be days like in that come along and you'll have to stomach them and believe in your prediction that inflation bloodily is many coming down but it will take time so the question is, now where is the risk and i think

when you look at that fed rate outlook chart you can see risk skewing to the right side of that chart towards that small group of fed officials that are in that 5.40 rake is i'm not saying they're going there but i've been on this camp of come hell or high water it is going to 5 and i think that's accurate how much further they go, in the august contract flirting with that extra quarter that might bring them up towards 5.40 levels so they're all -- put it this way, it's getting boring. i read all the speeches and they're all coming to the same conclusion >> it's tim. there's nothing boring about you. 50 bins of easing between kind of now and year end and some of this is just the calendar because we've gone into a new year but now at 20 bins between now and year end and after the cpi, the biggest move was february through april of '24

and that really is the story of rates higher for longer but not necessarily any different than they were. >> no, i think you're right, tim, but that's because the work has been done. the market has really come a long way to the fed. if you look at what the year end contract, january 4 because it's a clean month, look at the year end contract, it was trading at 4.37 on january 18th, which by my recollection -- my reckoning is a month ago and now that contract, you can see there at 5.07 what happened tim, 70 basis points of tightening have been added to the market. that's good as far as fed chair powell believes. i think he think he needs that tightening to bring down inflation. the issue is whether or not that tightening is going to -- how hard it's going to lean against the economy and becomes something you guys got to do which is process that in terms of earn sglgz yep, steve, thanks always good to see you steve leaveman.

karen, what did you make of the markets today and the move in treasurys >> so, i mean to me it seemed like this wasn't particularly great news it wasn't terrible wasn't so shocking, but to sort of extend the narrative of, oh, this is good, we're closer to the end, i don't fully get that. if it's hard for comment, it doesn't make sense to me seemed like quite a rebound closer to the end. >> tim >> hi. by the way it's nice seeing you across the dinner table from karen and getting used to this cool, new set. >> we get to gaze into each other's eyes. >> on valentine's day. it's really nice a couple things about today's market once again the semiconductors and maybe it's the ai component that continues to drive, but the dynamic here about where the higher risk parts of the market, higher cyclicality is doing well, we may have a fund survey out that reinforces the trend

and pain is higher and in a place where there's my camera. tells you we're in a place where actually if you think about where cash positions are and that although a lot of us continue to talk about how earnings need to really figure out where they are in valuation, the market seems to want to go higher and i would argue that it can go higher. if i look at where we are in terms of technical levels and in terms of the earnings that continue to come in better than expected for this quarter even though they're not great. >> dan >> so i guess we have to figure out which is the next bout of data that could be hot and be less optimistic and steve kind of said this i think this is kind of important, if the consensus is we'll have fed funds above 5% and tim's point we won't see the cuts that were being priced in a few months ago, how does the economy deal with that how does basically how does that be dealt with with earnings? they're doing fine with that with rising rate, ten-year back up to 3.75

i would have thought with crude oil firming and copper going up, thdo a bottom here i would think that's not a great cocktail for equities right now. you know, i mean when sentiment was bad and all those things were looking lower that was probably a good time to shift that thing around but to me i don't really see the risk/reward. i'm like thinking about, you know, six month cds at 5%. that's not bad with the s&p up 8% midway through february that takes a lot of risk out of your investing if you think about it right now but i'm on the other side of this and doesn't feel particularly great but not like -- people ask when are you going to change your mind not any time soon. all that other stuff i said, i don't think we've seen the effect in the economy. once we see that unemployment rate start to tick up and it will go back up let's see how quickly it does that let's see, you know, where doves are. if they're all in the white house that's fine but the weight has not been felt on the economy yet. >> we often play this game, if

you tell me the data, you know, how would i guess the markets would do and if you told me the data this morning i don't know that i would have guessed the markets would do this today. i felt like the data underscored the notion the fed doesn't have control over key parts of inflation which are, granted, food and energy but for americans food and energy and for businesses food and energy are big input costs and we're seeing a half a percent in food, 2.4% in energy is a big deal and that weighs along with higher for longer >> so lorjloriginally the parkes reaction -- >> yeah. >> i agree the harper rally the yield curve, this is that same cokooky shape just higher, six-month at 5% which i agree seems like -- >> get it while you can. i don't think it'll be be there

and that's what that funky inverted yield sunk is telling. >> you is it saying, oh, that's recession later off a higher base. >> maybe i'm not quite sure so i don't know why we haven't been able to get out of this funky yield curve front end loaded the market doesn't seem to care, believe about the -- >> we say market and talking about general ai, machine learning sort of thing and learn based on the input we're in a matrix. i mean that sincerely. if you're a human being and processing -- >> i am. >> believe it or not. >> thank goodness. >> cyborg. >> that simulation my point is everything that i know about being in the markets the last 25 years, when we avert a recession or avert a worst case scenario usually it's because interest rates were low and monetary policy has been very easy. it's tight right now so you're telling me that the only way like rates to come down

precipitously. guy says this, would have to happen that's not going to be good for risk assets. i don't feel like the risk/reward is very good it's much worse than it is six months -- >> you mentioned six month t-bills are 5% the ceo of interactive brokers saying 4.078% on cash. julie, there's so many options there are so many different alternatives with different interest. >> i think that's the big challenge for all of us is investors is that, you know, what we're fighting is the opportunities that others have to put your money to work in very, very safe vehicles so you look at the markets right now. equity markets and they're not really priced on the cheap-cheap side you see a lot of reversion to the mean where people are buying off what sold off aggress link particularly december of last year and that makes it hart to gauge direction. but, you know, we haven't had

upper leadership in the market for probably since the start of the pandemic and so i think what we're coming towards is trying to figure out how much risk am i really willing to take what are my points of view in terms of earnings and i think it really is starting to become a proper stock pick you're market where you have to look at the fundamentals to get a real understanding of each company's approaches >> all right, our next guest suggests this year's popular risk-free trades have a shelf life paul mcculley, great to have you with us. why -- you think these rates only last for another year or so >> yes, that's what the yield curve is telling us, as well as the fact that disinflation is clearly in train, it's not as fast as some would like but it's clearly in train and the starting point is a restrictive fed policy when you have restricting fed

policy and also have disinflation manifestly in train that's not the stuff of a hard landing. that's the stuff of a soft landing and i think that's basically what the equity market has been romancing. >> the equity market seem to believe what they want to believe and that's always the case i'm wondering from your standpoint have your views in how high the fed goes and how long has it changed based on the most recent jobs data as well as today's cpi? >> no, it hasn't i've been anticipating that the fed would go to plus or minus 5% and effectively the marketplace is now pricing that having reversed some of the hopes for a quicker pivot that we saw a few weeks ago. so, in general, the script is unfolding that the fed is going to wait for beyond a reasonable doubt evidence that inflation is down for the count whereas the

marketplace is going on the preponderance of evidence thesis so it's an easier burden for the market than the fed and i think the market is saying the fed is going to be successful it doesn't mean that it's not too gedi right now in a very short-term basis but fundamentally i think the fed and the marketplace broadly speaking are in alignment these days >> paul, it's karen. so this shelf life for the six-month treasury bill. where do you think it's going and how long does one have to buy it at this yield >> the six-month gbill are mechanically linked so when you ask -- >> they have been somewhat, but continue, sorry. >> they have a little bit of slippage but broadly speaking they are one and the same so when you ask how long is the 5% bill rate going to be it's how long is the 5% fed funds rate going to be. it's the pivot question and i think the fed will rhetorically,

i stress restoricic -- rhetorically pivot back and the half-life of getting this is the next six months. >> only february and we're talking about august already, paul, because you're referring to jackson hole. you said you think logically the fed will probably start talking about a pivot or plant that at jackson hole and you're anticipating a cut by the end of the year so you do have -- even though jerome powell said i don't see that happening, he said that at his press conference you're saying you don't believe the fed either >> no, i believe that chair powell has to say that remember, he wants his rhetoric to err on the side of restraint. he hasn't foreclosed that possibility but simply said i don't see it now and that's natural given the seat that he's

sitting in so i don't have a big disagreement with chair powell i think he's doing a wonderful job from the standpoint of leaning excessive exuberance at the same time saying this disinflation is for real it hasn't gotten as fast as we want but it's for real and most important we're in restrictive neighborhood we may go to an even more restrictive house in that neighborhood, but we're in the restrictive neighborhood so the next big strategic call is when they pull back from the restrictive neighborhood on disinflation success and i think that's what the equity market is romancing now. >> you used excessive and not irrational was that on purpose? >> yes, it was >> okay. just wanted to classify. paul, great to see you paul mcculley. >> well, professor mcculley was the chief economist at ubs when

greenspan had the term irrational exuberance and the world is so different. think about a fed that's gone out of their way to communicate to the market this is not what the fed was doing back then but paul is right. he was on our show our month and a half ago and leaning bullish and on this concept that there have been this moment where the fed peaked i would just go and say that short-term and medium-term is how i think about the market i think we have a case where 30% of the fund managers out there feel like they are not exposed enough to cyclicality. 35% of them believe we're now not in a recession and whereas it was 75% back in november that said we are going to recession, i think we're at a place where i follow the market clues which are the cash levels and positioning and seems to me like it trades higher even though the math doesn't make sense in terms of where the s&p and earnings are. >> we've got a news alert. taiwan semi, lower and berkshire

hathaway lower its stake. >> they cut its stake on the semiconductor by 86% as of q4. that means ending december of last year so quite a shift in tone since berkshire bought 60 million new shares in q3 making its one of its top ten holdings but not the case for q4. often we see these in and out of a hedge fund less common from berkshire hathaway the stock reacting down 3.7% right now. but volume is relatively light >> well, kristina, thank you, kristina partsinevelos dan, would you make a similar poff >> i think it's interesting to see that movement from a company -- >> back to trader. fast money. >> not known to have their finger on the pulse and nailed apple and a huge thing for him but i will say this, this goes to what i might have said about the market, our market is not priced for a geopolitical event. when you think about how things got heyware in the start of 2022

is when russia started to roll into ukraine and all inflationary things in 2021 went haywire. think about on a magnitude, if things are dialing up with china and there is some sort of -- like some sort of issue with taiwan, this could be why. buffett is selling taiwan semiconductor. can you imagine the troubles in supply chains and semi shortages and the like we were worried about a couple of years ago. >> we had -- >> october semi was a china internet stock it was, no, i agree and gave us some numbers and kind of derisked '23 from a cyclical, to 100, you know, i'd be cautious on that. >> coming up earnings alearn on airbnb jumping big news in the plane space, the $75 billion deal boosting some planemakers. more on that when "fast money"

returns. i remember when i first started flying, and we would experience turbulence. i would watch the flight attendants. if they're not nervous, then i'm not going to be nervous. financially, i'm the flight attendant in that situation. the relief that comes over people once they know they've got a guide to help them through, privileged to be in that position. ♪♪ dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones

the eagle has landed. let's that's one smallf it. step for man... hey, what's up? uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game?

yeah, it's what we do with xfinity 10g. it's like, you know, the best network imaginable. what the heck is that? those are the bad guys. are they friendly? the 10g network, only from xfinity. one giant leap for mankind. welcome back to "fast. shares of airbnb soaring

it was a vacation company's most profitable fourth quarter ever cnbc's deirdre boast skah has the latest >> blow-out quarter. on top of already high expectations, cost-cutting led to a huge beat on the bottom line as you mentioned profitability net income hit $2 billion f for '22, three consecutive quarters of gap profits. investors however looking past a softer adr or average daily rate outlook expected to keep adjusted ebita flat on the year. the stock clearly holding on to gains up 10% cost discipline also continues to be a focus. brian chesky pointing out since 2019 they have decreased head count by 5% but increasing revenue by 75% the company has backed away from some of their more ambitious projects at the beginning of the pandemic and that allowed airbnb to increase the supply of homes

on the platform and stay competitive with other otas like bookings holdings and expedia sitting on more than $9.5 billion on cash and cash-give leapts and return some to investor and offset stock compilation through stock buybacks they said they would do that and that accounts for at least a billion dollars. mel, back to you. >> d. bo, back to you, deirdre bosa >> about two months ago this was a cheap stock relative to, let's say, itself in the past and all of a sudden the stock is up 50%, 80 million mark cap. it's a great balance sheet but here's the deal. this year expected to grow, earnings and sales 10% trading 40 times in about eight types sales. it's not a cheap stock those growth numbers, this is not like -- i -- they're growing

10%. >> and i think your point is it these numbers are coming where i think there's still a lag effect and i think if you look at a lot of the travel stocks and said it with airlines and other parts of the hospitality place, you have a case, those margins are great. they indicated even at 23 will look like 22 the revenue.y acronyms but well above 2019 levels for a lot and that's the interesting part can you assume it stays, no. >> julie >> you know, i think if you think about air wrooeb writ large it plays into this travel trend and bounce-back. you still have vulnerability in terms of any downturn or softness i think about where in the labor pool is using airbnbs and it's typically midhigher income consumers are the people who are going to be most impacted by job cuts and economic weakness we

see going forward. at the low end you're better positioned so i think it is still a consumer discretionary stock, i agree the best margins of any of the marketplaces and i think it probably has the strongest network effects available but, again, it's still consumer discretionary 40 times is a lot for that >> yeah, i agree with all. there's so many great things to like a lot of improvements and metrics, however, right, if you think we're in the pent-up demand, stays at this rate it's still high that revenue multiple at -- i think it's close to 9 now or above given where the stock is trading, everything is great about it except the price which is the kind of one thing i care about most going in-ish. >> d. bo mentioned expedia trading 12 times earnings and 1.3 times sales and expected growth is better and they have higher margin, 86% if you like what they just said to you, you buy expedia. you don't really pay this

multiple right here for airbnb after this. >> a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. >> boeing stealing the love this valentine's day after a huge order from air india the details on the deal and who else is gaining altitude next. plus, tesla keeps charging higher but dan's been betting it's going to hit the brakes. why he chose to play the stock the way he did and the electric trade school is next you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. we're back right afterhi ts. ons through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if it received ppp, and all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application; that easy. and if your business doesn't get paid, we don't get paid. getrefunds.com has helped businesses like yours claim over $2 billion but it's only available for a limited time. go to getrefunds.com, powered by innovation refunds.

welcome back to "fast money. shares of boeing soaring after

landing a massive order from air india. it was formalized and stock up 15% this year alone. phil lebeau has the details. phil >> melissa, this is a huge order, in fact, it is the largest ever placed by a single airline in terms of the number of aircraft being purchased, by the way, it's about 50/50 between boeing and airbus. both are doing great in terms what have it represent, 220 aircraft, list value $4 billion, 4% bump to the backlog the 737 max is the bulk of this deal so the narrow body is what air india wants and that production at 31 a month is expected to go up either later this year or early next year. that's the importance of the deal it solidifies the backlog. airbus will be the a3. air india is placing with them, similar, $35 billion and for airbus it's a 3% bump to the

backlog. remember, airbus is in the process of assessing and laying out plans for increasing its production of the a320 neoin the united states. they build it down in alabama. a couple of stock, first of all, check out ge why? the leak engine -- enjoy, i should say built by the joint engine saffron, 800 part of the deal, 52-week high or roughly close to it where it is trading at take a look at transdine as the airline industry has moved higher, transdigm and they're in the process of expanding production but the key is whether or not they can get all the suppliers to increase their production a challenge not just for boeing but airbus so many of the smaller

suppliers, they lost so many people during the pandemic they're having trouble increasing the parts, the components that go ultimately into a boeing or an airbus plane. >> phil, thanks. phil lebeau on boeing. you agree with this run-up on boeing >> i agree i think there's more to go and a combination of not just the obviously stuff we know. do on-- duopoly were not tragedies or the 737 max and the recertification but about the airline industry and what it's going through so to me it's a free cash flow story where free cash flow could be north of 25 bucks a share again at some point at least a free cash flow yield. if you look at where they're most profitable. they are around the 787s and delivery and look at the order book, some are coming through. i don't see why when you hear from the airlines and where they are on commercial and international rell difficult to 2019 levels why boeing doesn't

get back in. >> time-out. we just got off the segment talking about travel and how there's pen-t-up demand so -- >> you called time-out. >> the clock is still going. we'll still go to break soon so, julie, could you get on board boeing if you believe travel will taper off part of the story is airlines are doing better, and better, et cetera and buy planes. >> yeah, you know, airline is such an interesting segment of the industry if you think about global travel, right? the number of planes in india right now is 645 in china it's more like 4,400 so there is still a lot of growth that has to happen in these markets as they continue to develop and so i think if you're a very long-term thinker, you have to think that the opportunity is still ahead of these businesses i think it's a question of being able to buy them intelligently and ride out the times where though they're going to struggle in terms of not -- sorry, having

my lighting issue i had last time i apologize. but the challenge that they have is really being able to ride through different periods of supply chain challenges. and, you know, i think longer term for a long-term investor, it makes sense here. >> fun facts about airplanes around the world had no idea, 645 in india. 4,000 plus in china. i mean, did you have any -- >> i didn't and that makes it all the more enormous given the base is relatively low what's amazing phil talked about it being 3% and 4% of airbus and boeing's backlog which makes their backlog $900 million and 850 -- over what period is this order? i dent know. >> that, i am not sure. >> don't know either. >> if you think about, you know, all that sort of operational leverage that you can get from a gigantic order over years, that's good. >> yep, coming up tesla's surge continues. so how do you manage a short when the stock won't stop?

class is in session. dan nathan ladies out a trade and nvidia is up where is the name heading? the action when "fast money" returns. >> announcer: get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast. catch us they time anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this. ntet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. so, am i still on track to reach my goals? the plan we created can withstand uncertainty. lately everybody has opinions about the economy,

but i count on personal financial advice. my ameriprise advisor understands the markets and me. she knows my goals and can help me reach them with confidence. the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

welcome back another check of the markets stocks closing well off their lows of the day after this morning's hotter than expected cpi report, the dow down 150 breaking a two-day winning streak down nearly 420 points at its lows the s&p virtually national and nasdaq managing to close the day higher up half a percent one of the biggest gainers was tesla jumping more than 7.5% for its highest close since november that stock is up nearly 70% since january. ford falling a percent halting production and shipments of the electric f-150 lightning due to a potential battery issue. could their pain be tesla's gain >> michigan battery plant. >> with catl. >> which is interesting. the first they'll have 100%

ownership of this so they'll get all the ev credit. something that i think is interesting. >> right but in terms of the tesla run it's astronomical, karen. >> it's something else beside it i guess it's, you know, elon has been much less provocative on twitter. i think that's part of it and i think that's actually most of it and that it shouldn't have been at 102. >> and the investor day is coming up and so, you know, the surge has got us thinking that it would be a perfect time for a trade school vocal. you've been short tesla and so we want to ask you a couple of questions and always get from our viewers. first of all, when do you know when you cut your losss? >> well, it all depends. like forme right here i have a lot of conviction about the fundamental view of this and to karen's point, did it deserve to be 102 i don't know i started shorting it over the summer at 300 and covered it at 200 and was clear about that and dropped off the face of the earth and went from 200 to 100

in a month so, yes, overshot to the downside for me right now i started putting a short out but doing it through long tslq and when the stock got back towards 160 and had the huge rally i've been arming into it a couple point, most viewers right here, most retail investors should never short a stock. you know why when you boy a stock it did go to zero. short a stock it can go to infinity the other aspect of shorting is it takes a lot of margin in your account to do that when i usually use short exposure i do it throughputs and buy a put or put spread or something like that. defining my risk but in a case like tesla if i look at the stock at 209 the at the money straddle looking out a month, the call premium and put premium, i know it sounds 530, options action, that's 16% of the stock price. that is the implied move between now and march 17th

if you pay that and the stock goes nowhere you lose that. 8% in either direction so how am i trading this and risk managing it why do i like the tslq i'm long something they know how to manage their risk when they're long something. that's my view on this i've been averaging in an down about 10% on my average. that's not great but like i know what i think i'm doing here and i'm not going to let this thing get out of control is there ever a stock that could get out of control it's this one. the up side and down side but that's why i'm not using options, the premiums don't make sense. i'm using this reverse or inverse etf and can risk manage it better than being short in the stock or long puts. >> you have been short in the past, tim. >> no. >> tempting at this point? >> it me on valuation, look, the reasons i was in this trade on the short side and i was doing it mostly through option, in fact, almost exclusively was there was a balance sheet issue back then.

i thought there was balance sheet -- i thought there was absolutely a question about the continuation of that balance sheet. i think there was a lot of things related to just the company's ability to stay in business that were part of it. that's not a question, not even a question then it became a question of valuation. look, on valuation you can get out to 25 and you can make this an 18 times multiple for a company that's -- so not bullish, if anything, i'm bearish on tesla here. but it's a very different story for me to be playing from the short side >> just quickly, if tesla, tslq, where would it get to zero how much -- >> i don't know. listen, this is what -- we spend a lot of time talking about this this is one position i have. does it not feel great, of course not at the end of the day i'll say this this is one thing, i think this is kind of the thing that investors are not pricing right now. i don't think things get better in 2023 between us and china when you think about this company's reliance on china from a manufacturing standpoint,

access to rare earth materials to make their batteries and access to consumer, they have less than 10% market share of evs over there that quarter was not good in china. if there's any hiccups between us, okay, and china get worse from here, this is a problem for them i think 40% of their sales come from china this is why i'm in the trade right now and i think this plays out over the next few months. >> news alert out of the faa and back to phil lebeau for the details. phil >> melissa, this comes from the head of the faa, the acting administrator billy nolan will be on capitol hill tomorrow. he'll be testifying in front of the senate commerce committee, no doubt they will be grilling him about a number of the issues inc including outage in early january, some of the runway incu incursion near misses and want

s a safety summit and saying we need to mine the data to see whether there are other incidents that resemble the ones we have seen in recent weeks we've had airplanes that have wings clip each other, jfk and also around the country, some close calls in terms of tarmacs where one plane was taxiing and was almost hit by another plane as it was coming this to land. so this is what billy nolan plans to talk about tomorrow he is saying he wants a call to action no doubt the senate commerce committee is going to be grilling him tomorrow not just about the note am outage but whether or not the country can do a better job when it comes to commercial aviation. >> phil, thanks. coming up nvidia ripping higher as one firm says the semi is positioned to win the ai race how should you play it we'll hit the options pit next with that trade and during february we are celebrating black heritage here's cnbc's vp of business operations >> having a father from ghana

and a mother from new york with southern root, i've always felt connected to both my african and american heritage. the values of education and perseverance were instilled in me at an early age and i take those values with me as a finance and business professional my advice to other, identify your talents and work to attain the skills necessary to succeed in your career but also recognize that success in your career is about so much more than your technical skills. support networks are a great way to build the network and understand how to navigate the workplace. my name is joshua florence, and one thing i learned being a firefighter is plan ahead. you don't know what you're getting into, but at the end of the day, you know you have a team behind you that can help you. not having to worry about the future makes it possible to make the present as best as it can be for everybody.

♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house.

welcome back to "fast money. nvidia surging higher after bank of america said the chipmaker was uniquely positioned to win the global ai arms race. the firm raising price target to 255 to 215 another 10% higher from here and options traders seem to agree. mike khouw has the details. >> it traded 1.3 times its daily options -- it was the second biggest after tesla and the busiest contract were the 230

calls, almost trading for $3.50. on a bet the stock will continue higher through the end of the week thanks for that, mike. for more "options action" tune in friday, 5:30 p.m. up next we are heading down to the farm. jane wells is coming to us from the world expo where she has the latest this tractor technology jane, have you kicked the tires? >> reporter: oh, i have kicked some really big tire, ms i'm way high up on a tractor but tractor sales are falk have we reached peak spending and what is the heck is a gofer whistle? i'll explain when i come back. >> announcer: "options action" sponsored by td. ameritrade. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting?

how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

for businesses of all sizes, td ameritrade. there are a lot of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business.

welcome back to "fast money. is trouble brewing down on the farm farm equipmentmakers seem to lose steam after a strong year and some believe there's a bigger slowdown coming jane wells joins us with more on the story. jane >> reporter: hey, melissa. yeah, this is a brand-new 728 tractor. here's what i like bit you can pressurize the tires inside the cab

they can be more pressure if you're on the street and less pressure if you're on the farm because that's apparently important. 2022 was a great year for farmers even with higher fertilizer pries their net income hit $163 billion. you know, the ago equipment makers had a great six months with strong earnings but year to date they have underperformed the s&p. not a good day today interest rates are higher, farm incomes projected to fall. deutsche bank and burnstein think we may have hit peak spending and saying that, quote, pricing power is slowing in 023 but oppenheimer's says maybe not yet. supply chain problems last year held back some sales. >> relative to say the last peak, 2013 which, by the way, was the last time we saw peak net farm income, we're still 25% below on a volume basis, that high horsepower range based on

estimates coming in for 2023 >> now, look at my favorite video of the day a driverless tractor from monarch which stops when it senses a human company started by some silicon valley engineers and one of the mondavis of the wine family taking over the plant in ohio. zero emissions, autonomy some are building them from the ground up but other companies like agco plan to retrofit autonomous functions into existing equipment go there's lots and lots of new technology. what we want to do is allow a farmer to do that at a graduated rate in a way they're comfortable and a way they maximize their return on investment >> i mean, these are huge investments for farmers and they have to be convinced they'll get a good roi within two or three year, which brings me to the gopher whistle what is that when a farmer talks the ear off a salesman and finally asks what

does this go for oh, for about $400,000 >> i was wondering >> if only i could whistle. >> thank you, jane jane wells we miss you, jane. great to see you >> she loves those big tractors. >> machines. >> she's the only one that could pull that off. look at that the tire is bigger than she. >> she's knuckling with the tractor on this valentine's day. >> lovely. >> thanks, jane. caterpillar's chart was unbelievable >> caterpillar's chart is unbelievable its valuation isn't great. i would go back to agco. not time for john mellencamp to do farm aid. good times going on in farmland but it's trading three or four turn, around 15 times forward. they had decent numbers and decent guide taking market share in other parts of the world especially in latin america and in south africa so i kind of like agco.

>> julie, quick trade on the farm. >> valuations on these are tough and, you know, you think about the return on investment for all of these farmers, they have to make it work pretty quickly because they can't just assume prices will stay as high as they are today. it's tough >> all right up next, final trades. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

time for the time trade. around the horn, julie >> i like heico. piggybacking off the success of boeing that provides replacement parts and profitability is quite nice >> tim >> happy valentine's day great to be with you ladies and dan. boeing i tell you what, i think this thing goes higher. big run but their game is back on track and profitability and free cash flow stay there. >> you didn't say that convincingly >> i wanted to make it clear we're talking about the ladies and wanted to turn to dan and wish him one too. >> karen >> eww for the near shore play. >> dan nathan. >> apple has kind of run far fast looks like it is losing steam in my opinion and talking about

tesla options how expensive they are. they are cheap looking out a month. >> apple. >> 2% at the money >> directionally short apple thanks for watching "fast money. see you back here tomorrow night for a great edition of "fast money" on the "squawk" set cbs nbc special ♪ ♪ good evening and welcome to this cnbc special "taking stock. the major averages all over the map today as wall street tries to make sense of a slightly hotter than expected inflation. stocks turning sharply negative in the late morning with the nasdaq falling more than 1% at the lows but indexes pair the losses after patrick harker suggested rate hikes are close to an end and the nasdaq ending thin