>> yeah. >> -- whether the fed is in the process of breaking something, it just hasn't shattered yet. >> it could be a range yes, you're going to have days when you wake up and it looks like they'll nail the landing, other days look more front and center. >> i appreciate you being here we'll see you tomorrow facebook is now. right now on "fast," stuck in rye serious ford's ceo calling the company dysfu dysfunctional. how did the auto giant dig itself into such a hole? tarnished titan. goldman scrapping plans on consumer bids, could it end up costing david sullivan the ceo his job? roku rebound surging after hours. we'll go inside the numbers. from the d-line to the bottom

line na in dom can sue will join us. jim farley opening up on what it needs to do to improve its pos position. >> what exactly is behind the shortfall? >> melissa, jim farley was talking, a fire up did side chat with him and john lawler talking with the analysts there, saying this is where the company is right now, basically the same message, where they say, look we're at about a $7 or $8 billion cost disadvantage, we

think at a minimum we can address it almost immediately things like warranty costs, as well as the efficiency sits it's not going to happen overnight, but there is the plan from jim farley then the question of whether or not when it comes to electric vehicles. lots of news on that front today. that's going to halted through next week. if you're a ford investor, the good news is you're hope form what they say comes to fruition if they have found it and can address it, then they'll start up products potentially by the end of next week, if not the

following week remember, evs are the future for ford yes, i knowle money comes from the internal combustion business, but we've got to be bigger and better. by the end of this year today they will move toward nongauche ev pricing no haggling with the dealer. when you look at ford, keep in mind the target is for 8% ev margins by 2026, which is also, melissa when they say they will have annual sales at the pate of 2 million vehicles by the end of 2026 >> can they circumvent the dealer in this case? >> i believe they can change --

they're not going tocircumvent that, but they are going to have to work withal dealers they still have a long weighing to go. >> phil, thanks. are we on the cusp of a turnaround, or is it way too early to say at this point, tim? >> there is differences between ford and gm if they diplomat pay a different this earnings period is of some question. think sacked 3600 jobs in europe, the model right now is really one more like north america or south america this is

nothing new. you can make an argument, even the last couple years, even though it has outperformed gm substantially. >> i feel like we want to be constructive for gm and ford they're both trailing tesla. i think where you were going with that dealer dom is it's more like tesla now. so circumvent the dealer ship and do everything on like with a no-haggle price. >> i was just wondering if legally or contractually they can do that versus have the dealership be the seller. >> i feel we'll see who holds the market share they are really trying to struggle here. ford is not winning. i think it's way too early to invest in a turnaround. >> in the land of investors,

jeff mills if you're looking at an ought on company the choice will be tesla, ford or gm, effectively where would you go >> they looked terrible. >> yeah. boy, it's a tough one. on tesla, there's no reason the stock can't go higher from here. so let's start there i just worry about that stock in another risk-off environment, which i think is likely over the next couple quarters, obviously a very high beta stock, but it's traded in the 200 to $300 range for a while. it obviously popped to $400, but the next challenge on the way to the top of that range is 225, the falling it 00-day moving average, but there's a ton of cross-occurrence now decent demand, potential issues

in china, we're not really sure. what if the economy contracts. there's just a lot going on, for me, i rely on the charts for a stock like that. it's still in a down trend when that changes, i'll sort of revisit it i think it's hard to generally bet against elon musk in the long term. i've been wrong about this stock a lot, but that i my general view there on ford, i think we're all saying it in different ways, but you're going to have to be patient. i'm just not sure the market will be patient if we see macroheadwinds, just given the profitability profile and the relationship to a ford versus a gm, who is doing a bit better in that regard. if you look at the stock, i do think it's put in a bottom at the 1060 level, obviously well below where we are now, but in terms of defining your risk, i think that's probably it for ford >> guy, what's your take on

ford >> $7 billion, right a company doing $160 billion in sales for a year in so much, and then the question is, well, how did they just figure it out it's an old company, as we all know maybe they just got lazy maybe jim farley has figured it out. i think mark fields had his arms around it to a certain extent, then one hackett to wonder what happened during the hackett year guess what, it was $13 in 1997 as well. it's gone up and down since then, but 25 years or so of nowhere is pretty interesting in an environment where automaker probably had the best decades in their lives. in terms of ford and tesla, in his an agram or month agram, i'll say this. 65% of ev sales in the united

states, is that going to continue to dwindle? my sense is the other will start to catch up. i'm not saying there's only blue sky ahead, but i think this to be you with probably own here. >> our next guest is a ford bear emanuel rozner, great to have you with us. what i characterized the earnings as terrible, but we've had incredible at bits the news from forte i wonder how, if at all, this changes your perspective on the company? >> hi, melissa, absolutely not we downgraded ford to a sell rating a couple weeks ago, what is extremely clear in our view is this turnaround is not on track. the fact there's a cost disadvantage at ford versus gm,

and certainly versus tesla is not in dispute it looks like they're not having traction fixing it they also missed their own guidance in the fourth quarter, and nour they're calling for flat earnings in 2023, which would require them to have $3 billion of savings just this year, which is evidence that we're going in the right direction. they also need to invest in electric vehicles at the same time, so any fixed-cost savings, they would have to reinvest where they were behind some of these rivals so we saying it's absolutely not on track, and we have a price target of $11. >> in terms of some of the manufacturing efficiencies they're trying to reap, emanuel, they talked about moving to large underbelly castings in order to make the manufacturing more easy and efficient. that's what tesla has been doing for some time.

i would imagine this takes year. these are processes that need to, you know, change not overnight, but over the course of years, particularly when it comes to retrofitting factories. >> absolutely. this is the crux of the issue. when you look at what ford qualified at $7 million, it's about $3 billion in the materials, $3 billion in manufacturing, $is billion in warranty none of these buckets will be quick to fix or even cheap to fix. manufacturing takes a lot time, as you just said suppliers are till sees cost inflation. they're not giving any cheaper prices here, and then warranty, ford did not rank well it takes year to essentially be able to improve the quality. when you see ford saying, absolutely, well, we're going to get $3 billion of that in 2023 i think that's extremely difficult, especially on the back of a year like 2022, when

the costs went up rather than down. >> emanuel, i admire your call, by the way, that's been the right call to have for a long time what do you make of the announcement that their partnership with the chinese battery company here in the united states, that seems fraught with political backlash. what are your thoughts op? >> even before, looking through the political backlash, which is the right move ford needs battery capital in the u.s. they need to be cost competitive. the issue is they are so far behind, it will take years to ramp up. gm is already producing batteries in the u.s ford will be starting to ramp up their own u.s. batteryries, and then they other plans come in even after that. a fairly major lag, a fairly

make disadvantage in terms of cost even if all plays out well, it would be in a better position three, four, five years out, and that's before even consider some of the political consideration. >> emanuel, last quick question. as ford is trying to become more cost-effective in their manufacturing and close that gap that they have in terms of a disadvantage, tprices should be coming down at the same time theoretically. do they get squeezed >> there's some cyclical pressure likely to come. earning for traditional automakers are at all-time highs. the consumer is not getting squeezed afford has gotten worse, interest rates are going up. it's not unlikely for car prices to stay this high. we worry in general about the cyclical back drop we worry about ford assuming

their -- from an all-time high starting point so, yeah, i think cyclical pressure, but even on a relative basis, assuming everything stays steady, we feel like ford is essentially at a disadvantage in terms of its cost structure, but also in terms of its valuation it is more expensive than gm on 2023 earnings, which is very hard to explain in light of all the stuff we discussed. >> emanuel, thanks for your time, great to see you emanuel rozner it's unusual for an annual to put a stock at a sell rating >> yeah, but i think it's propose here emanuel said $11 i think there might be a gravitational pull toward that level just because, again, i don't know how patient investors will be. you have other areas of the auto sector that are a bit more profitable that's key in this type of

market my guess is it's a difficult slog here going forward, and maybe to go back to the first question you asked me, thinking about it from a trader's perspective, i don't think you have any catalyst relative to a ford, where looking at tesla, that might be a different story, and it's at least possible to trade to the up side of that range. i don't know if that's the case. coming up, we have some movers roku is surging. details on that next, plus some wild energy in this session. so how should you ade trthe energy space we have the details when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. earnings alert on roku they reported a revenue beat, and smaller than expected loss topping estimates. the conference call is underway. julia boorstin joins us with the latest >> hey, that's right, in addition for the better than expected revenue that roko reported, the company reporting smaller than expected loss they guided for $700 million, higher than expectations, though

it is worth pointing out that the fourth quarter earnings guidance still did fall short of what analysts were looking for the ceo anthony wood writing in his letters -- though macro uncertainty seems likely to pers in 2023, our unmatched scale and engagement along with competitive advantages, give us conviction to be able to execute in challenging times they also were noting that despite tight in this ad spending outperform the overall ad market, wood saying the company plans to continue to approve the operating expense profile and they are committed to a path that delivers positive adjusted ebitda for full 2024. they also mentioned there was 85% growth in the roku channel, and also seeing a lot of growth in the free ad-supported channels, what they call fast

channel in the biz in general. >> julia boorstin, thank you >> i believe in october they guided to an 8% decline in the revenue, so the bar was set up pretty low you look they chart it's a disaster anything better than a disaster was going to have -- i think we're headed towards more positive i think their best days is behind them. we know the cyclicality of that. steve is right on the comps this is not a stock i get excited about. >> a 9% doesn't hurt the pop in the stock after hours. guy? >> it's not representative of this move, without question. we've seen much larger shortages. this stock at its trough was $38

and change forts about the lows we saw. this stock traded at levels we haven't seen you talk about a complete overshot, a stock that would, by the way, a year earlier was trading $500 so for perspective, where we are now effectively gets us to the lows we saw in the earlier spring this is where we should sort of flame out, i would think, because to tim's point, the best days for roku i think are clearly behind them. even with the precipitous help, it's still an expensive stock. >> let's get to cisco now, shares also higher guidance for the current quarter coming in above expectations frank holland joins us with more. >> chuck robbins said they were continues to ease for the company. beats in both segments, and a

beat over margin estimates as well a side of that improving supply chain. dividend also raised by a penny, and big race on the call robbins discussed with -- -- >> a healthy backlog in pipeline and improving supply gives us the confidence to raise our full-year outlook. we expect the same factors to continue in fiscal year 24 >> the rpo was up 4% year over year 53% of that is current rpo, expected to be realized as revenue. >> jeff mills, what are you seeing on cisco? >> this is one we talked about on friday. i think generally you might expect a stock like cisco to underperform during economic

contractions i went back and looked at the price chart. it's actually outperformed since 1990 that's before some of this transformation relative to its revenue mix. prescription revenue now at 46%, growing faster than overall revenue. i think that transformation is really positive, makes it more resilient. generally i think the valuation is pretty fair it pays a decent dividend. i think you can own the stock here being how it's coming off that pop. i don't want to say only 2.5%, because that ain't bad, but it had been up 8%, 9% immediately after earnings. >> i think it had traded lower, but jeff has pointed out the multiple on this stock it's more than a decent value. i think it's great value, when you expect a reversion back, which is 67, 68%, this is a company, of course, 20 years ago we were waiting on bated breath

or 15 for sure, this is an economic bellwether, and it's a little different, but i still think again, their core business and they have a lot of software in there that's what makes it attractive. that's what makes the mull pal attractive. >> that's what makes is outperform that's why it outperforms during an economic downturn when you listen to the ceo, it doesn't sound like he's waiting for an economic down it turn aye that as an indication of where the economy is going. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> announcer: crude intentions oil prices losing energy today, and the sector taking a hit. so is last year's red-hot trade out of gas and a goldman game changer the investment bank scrapping its credit card plans, so what does the strategy shift mean for the stock? the details ahead.

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dedevon energy, tim, what did you make of devon? >> they missed a bit if you have six times trailing, and maybe that was an environment -- so we should look at the forward numbers i think there's a lot there.

i recognize that we've had a perfect storm on some level for world prices, but have we? the china reopening and demand shows more resilience. i expect prices to be north of $100 a barrel. that's not why you're buying energy companies marathon after the bell here talking about north of 40% of cash flow payouts. the urge is to drill move. that's what we're all watching so far i haven't been that discouraged. >> guy >> it feels like -- it feels like to me this is devon-specific it feels as though some of the issues were specific to the company. i also say this, the move in natural gas has not helped a lot of downstream plays. i'm with tim 100% on this.

every time it's seemed to be the end of the energy stocks cycle, it's proven to be the time to get back in. i don't think you run from energy here in terms of the stock. i think you add to long positions. >> it did seem a bit devon-specific when they were talking about outages, in terms of infrastructure in the delaware basing. that seems devon-specific and first quarter-specific as well i thought what was interesting is the break even higher, and that's not something we often think about. i sort of wonder in the back of my mind if the biden administration is listening to this it costs more to make the stuff. like any company >> yeah. absolutely it's something you have to pay attention to, but at the same time, you know, are we past the worst of that? obviously inflation having peaked, i think it probably trends lower

we can argue as to the speed, but i agree with what the other guys have said you look at some of the valuations, whether it's six, seven time, a marathon pet petroleum, even exxon mobil, for example, even if earnings are down, to tim's point, we don't need oil prices for these to be reasonable at they prices. for me, i think that is the key. at the same time, you have companies likes exxon mobil, for example, continuing to manage costs even amid report profits i think that's a good think for the more medium term outlook that's why i like a company like eog resource they can support that different at much lower oil prices so, you know, if you want to play in that direction because you have concerned about the break-evens, maybe a stock like that makes

sense. >> i think 2022 was the year of the equity i think everything was front loaded if you look at exxon mobil, chevron for a larger extent, all of these charts have rolled over i'm up in the air for the commodity. it could be the year for the commodity to rally and year for the equities to sell off. coming up, goldman scrapping the direct-to-consumer countered card plans the analysts are sounding off. philadelphia eagles player ndamukong suh joins us soon. isre "fast moneyrit te " ghafr " ghafr th i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums]

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welcome back to "fast money. let's get a check on how markets ended the day. the nasdaq up for a third straight day, rising nearly a percent, helped by airbnb's surge, and bitcoin surging back above 24,000, the 8% moving putting it at a two-week high. it was a lot of the quote, unquote rfk-on stocks, growthier stocks that rallied, steve. >> i think it's a testament to

how offsides this market has become it's always the most hated rally whenever you look at the market rallying back. it seems like this is truly the most hated rally people are reaching for the risk stocks, as you said before until people get right-sized, i think the technical in the marketplace, 4200 is a huge number to the up side, so we'll play away with the same handles in the s&p, but right now people are way too pessimistic. it's a up trend that needs to be broken down. in fact, it probably goes down to the 4,000 on the s&p, but a vix in an 18 handle. rates have been but higher, an i think it's a case with expectations for this market i think on some level, you use the word "risk" i feel it's

derisks by the fed we have earnings that are not great, but we haven't necessarily seen -- it almost makes you feel like we have to wait one more earnings session to start to market companies where they are >> it's strange to think it's being derisked by the fed. >> financial conditions are less certain than where they were nine months ago. >> our conference call, guy, you were talking about the vix and how it doesn't make sense in terms of what it's tracking. seemingly in equitiesings there is no volatility. >> people will submit the math behind it in terms of the percentage move, we just haven't had it recently, so i guess to that end the math makes sense. what doesn't make sense, one of the potential headwinds, to me, it doesn't make a lot of sense a lot of talk about these

one-day options i cannot speak intelligently about, but a lot of people are pointing to them as a potential reason, but the bitcoin, and you mentioned it, the moves bit counsel to me is sake that something is sort of going to break along the way that coupled with the fact that 2s and 10s have blown out. we've been saying on this show for months, if not longer, that that was probably going to go to negative 1%. for the life of me, i don't understand how that's bullish in any scenario goldman sachs scrapping the plans for direct-to-consumer cards. >> why were they allowed to lose billions without someone stepping in and saying, enough this transcends the current ceo. david solomon leaned in, but at least he's cutting the losses

now. so i want to know what broke down that allowed them to spend so much for so long. >> then there's this this is the headline from "new york times" earlier this month, suggesting david solomon's side hustle as a d.j. may be a conflict of interest you don't see these kinds of articles when a stock is doing well is there a crisis of confidence at the company a crisis of confidence about its ceo? jeff, what do you say? >> yeah, there could by. we'll see what happens relative to leadership there, but to your point, it's easy to start pointing finger when the stock is not doing great i think they bit off a bit more than they can chew, and this year is probably one of retrenchment i think that's what we're seeing in terms of the consumer business i think the stock is probably, at the very least, range bounce for quite a while.

that push into consumer was really a push looking for more durable sources of revenue it could potentially be in asset management the difference is stark, morgan stanley, you know, $1.4 billion of earnings, 18% r.o.e you know, there's an issue there they need to fix relative to the durable of their revenue profile if that's where they want to go with this business for morgan assistantly it was a multiyear acquisition with a few acquisitions along the way. >> a few big ones. >> and they did it at the right time, too. they got it into the asset management, the financial advisory business sooner than people probably thought, and it turned out at the right time when you mentioned where are we in terms of david solomon, this

is a company since 1969, the gentleman there that was there for 40 years prior, since then they've had nine ceos, so the average tenure is about 5, 5 1/2 years. so with that said, you know, this year, next year, david is probably getting long in the tooth. will there be a switcheroo in the seat probably the last quarter was not good. i think you stay long goldman sachs here. >> let me ask the question. >> i'm sorry, you keep doing it. you do it well >> if the headline crossed that david solomon was leaving the post, would the stock go up? >> i think he's an easy target right now. to answer your question, yes however, i think people need to relax. they have an investor day in a couple days. they'll reiterate a target to

return on tangible equity. the quarter wasn't great, but if you look at a five-year chart of goldman versus all the other big money center banks, you're doing fine they will be back. i would be buying weakness. >> remember what mike mayo said, this is the most recessionproof that financials have been, this is clouding it the best chart in the space is morgan stanley. i wish i had a must trade versus a just trade, but i'm still long jpmorgan. ndamukong suh from the philadelphia eagle will join the desk how hetackles investing. during february, we are celebrating black heritage >> today one of the primary barrier to access and opportunity in the african

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welcome back from football to finances, our next guest is tackling it all. fresh off his super bowl appearance, ndamukong suh of the philadelphia eagles is no stranger to defense on the field, but it's the defense off the field that, the suh family foundation partnering with intuit great to have you with us. >> great to have you. >> first of all, our condolences in the super bowl, but it was a feat to make it there in and of itself tell me about this financial

literary push. i grew up in a very nice community with a very public school, and i didn't get financial literacy either, so i'm sure it's lacking across the country. >> first and foremost, thank you. last sunday was not fun, especially the way it ended, but more importantly, something i'm always focused on since i was a kid, really not knowing it, my mom and dad teaching me great lessons with financial literacy, my wife and i joined together to build not only our family foundation, but finding weighing to empower other kids, our youth in our communities, really across the country, which we have been able to do with a great partner with intuit. i didn't have the opportunity to learn it in school i learned the lesson from my mom being a teacher, and my dad being an engineer. they taught me different

lessons, knowing i said to work for it, and budget and manage things it's something i pride myself on, and no matter what they said to do, what they said to accomplish, financial literacy is a big part of your life. >> inwho follows you, you are plugged in you follow the markets, you involved truly what investing do you like the most stock trading? you're in all sorts of different things at this point. >> yeah, i'm in a tremendous amount of things my biggest focus has been focus heavily on a development company working with my partners, just different things, different hopes we had to develop did i assets we want to create, not only from the market, multifamily market rate, but also the opportunity to help with affordable housing.

that should be something affordable to everybody in the world. to answer your question directly, i love being ability to working with the general -- seeing all these cool innovators, the deals that come across their table building a relationship with them diving into special technologies, to work with a great mentor of mine just have you the strong relationships. i learned early on, that relationships are everything in this world >> big suh, number 93 retired at nebraska, you were there for five years you also got a chance to meet warren buffett and you developed a relationship speak to how important what you've learned from him? >> mr. buffett is great.

we got to know each other during school but probably my biggest relationship with him is just learning how to be patient, understanding, always be prepared, focused on the things that you encounter and that what you want a particular drive for, and really just working with good people. if you notice, in his conglomerate, it's always about amazing people in the holding offices, but then also the companies that run the companies. >> who won that arm wrestling? >> mr. buffett won we wrestled a couple times we've done it for some charity events i try not to take it out on him. i usually keep that on the football field. >> we hope you come back to "fast money" soon. i definitely looked forward it,

and hopefully get in in person. >> you're always welcome thanks. >> thank you >> ndamukong suh, a great cause. >> what a true leader both on the field and off the field. i'm betting in the locker room among his peers. and financial literacy among professional athletes has come a long way fantastic. >> jeff, as an eagles fan, i think you can relate to what he was saying on many levels. >> no doubt about it obviously the super bowl was disappointing, but my daughter is a big eagles fan. we had such a blast at the games lifelong memories, and the thank him and the team you don't get that in school, even the quote, unquote better schools, financial literacy is not always a focus even opening a robinhood account

for one of your kids, talking to them about the companies they know and understand, maybe where they want to put some money, i think it's a great way to teach the next generation. the technology to enable that is fant fantastic. >> if you are in the business, you should be a mentor we've been doing a stock market game, brought fifth graders down to the exchange, follow up in eighth grade, follow up when they're seniors, and they would never know where wall street was. they didn't have a parent who worked on the seat it's incumbent on all of us to bring those people into the circle i didn't have a father that worked on wall street. i found it on my own. coming up more earnings movers shopify plunging and shares of rho box, and options traders are betting this stock levels up. how they're playing the game when "fast money" returns. ds. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest,

fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience? listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com.

the eagle has landed. to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? uh... houston... we have a situation.

how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game? yeah, it's what we do with xfinity 10g. it's like, you know, the best network imaginable. what the heck is that? those are the bad guys. are they friendly? the 10g network, only from xfinity. one giant leap for mankind. welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert on shopify. the conference call until way, let's get to kate rooney with the latest. >> hey, melissa. 2023, revenue outlook falling short of expectations for the

full year shopify's forecasting high teens revenue growth. analysts were looking for more than 20% revenue growth. also looking like q1 revenue guide was also light this is despite a surprise adjusted eps revenue for the fourth quarter also a beat, but shares are below the extended hours session here, down almost 10% at this point. melissa, back to you. >> jeff mills, how do you trade this >> my worry heading into the print was expectations were too optimistic i think you're seeing that right sized now. whether it's potential headwinds or obviously small businesses is port recession tends to hit that harder the price has been adjusted here a bit, and i think it's a good long-term story. i think you can set the stock aside. >> roblox, the stock surging here after a big earnings beat,

now at 58% on the year more than double the june lows, they're petting there's more gains ahead. kevin okelly has the action, what are you looking at? >> coming into today it was a 12.5% expected move. you saw it go up over 26%. what was interesting is volatility didn't compress today, even after earnings what we did see is a big trait today, where it was a calendar risk reversal, where the trader went out there and actually sold the march 28 puts for about 13 cents, collected that premium, then spent $5.20 to go out to the june expiration on the $50 call so you need the stock to move up 22% for break even. >> kevin kelly, thanks tune into the full show friday at 5:30. up next, final trades.

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a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. final trade time, guy? >> i think dollar gen is too much

dg. >> jeff mills? >> guy and are going discount retailer five below, the chart is up and to the right i think that continues. >> sell-off is done on alphabet rounding the bottom, buy. our special with brian sullivan starts right now. good evening and welcome to this cnbc special "taking stock. as melissa said with such enthusiasm, i am brian sullivan. jim is off for the rest of the week we have a red hot retail sales number we'll get more in a bit. here is today's scorecard if you're just waking up in guam. the dow and s&p rallying ending the day higher the nasdaq pulling the nasdaq and out perform ending up nearly a full percent the nasdaq iup