was really self-imposed. retail sales grew 7% they got to wrong inventory. people jumped ahead too far. >> got it. and they were punished for it for sure greg, thank you so much. appreciate it. s&p 500 down a quarter of a percent on the day and week. that's going to do it for overtime "fast money" begins right now. have a good weekend. right now on "fast", the great disconnect equity markets holding dow raising 135 points even as rates hit their highest level of year why do stocks and bonds seem to be reading vastly different messages rotten apple shares hitting their largest we revisit the sell it all call cofind out what to do now. later, deere-ly beloved. share of the tractor seeing their biggest pop.

but is the rally for real, or is it too good to be true i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, courtney garcia, steve grasso and carter worth. the yield on ten-year treasurie hitting its highest level as expectations for aggressive rate hikes grew meantime, stocks closing near their highs of the day with the dow gaining nearly 130 points. the nasdaq down but managed to post a gain for the week which of these markets is getting the read right this comes on the heels of a lot of hawkish fed speak we had a couple banks say they're adding a rate hike to their expectations, expecting a 25-point basis height in june, and the market reaction was sort of like, meh, i don't care. >> if you look at fed fund futures they've moved out and higher in other words, not only higher for longer, but the fact we're moving out to august, wouldn't

surprise me if we got to september, maybe october soon in terms of peak fed funds. i know we hate these terms we coin on wall street. the no-landing was i think the term of the week i think it's delayed landing, and i think that's where equities are >> delayed hard landing? >> landing of some kind. i'm not going to define my landing. i see retail numbers, job market, some element of at least some easing of supply con constraints in covid, all pent up it's not everywhere, but this is i think a market that's balanced i think you have opportunities both ways. if i'm a bull, i point to the fact that the dollar has rallied and i would argue cash levels are high i would argue all week with the exception of yesterday, the market rallied into the close. took some tough news yesterday took an avalanche of fed, and it did okay we know where the bears are. i get it and we talk about it.

the map doesn't add up for the s&p earnings but that's next week. >> clearly themarkets are starting to price in the fact that the fed is going to be serious with us. they are going to continue to raise interest rates and we are going to be in the higher for longer environment that's been the problem with the rally this year is your risk of as as have not been believing that this is not a bad thing for the overall economy, but if rates are going to be higher, it's those high beta, overly risky companies are going to continue to be under pressure, and i think people are starting to realize that, and you're seeing this rotation out. this year has been interesting because you've seen a ton of money pour into individual stocks, pour out of etfs, because that speculation is ramping up what's interesting is we still have an inverted yield curve meaning longer term inflation is coming down, but over the next year, going to stay high you need to make sure you're investing accordingly. >> glasso, what's your take?

>> the market's always a forward-looking price mechanism. they're looking out already six months, eight months, maybe longer than that so they're seeing through all of this if they see through all this and markets are rallying, hanging in, you're starting off the show saying the markets were sort of numb to what's going on, they're above the 200 day moving average by a long shot so for me to take the wind out of the sales of the bowls, i have to wait to see a challenge of the 200 thing if i don't see a challenge of the 200-day, means the market was worried about an earnings recession, we didn't get the earnings recession market worry about rate hikes. we factored those in maybe we're in the process of factoring in more, but nonetheless the market is holding in hard for me to be negative about a marketplace where the large cap tech stocks did not have the earnings recession we thought they would have. earnings have been better than people thought they would be, so

i'm not a dedicated bull, but i'm not going to turn my back on the market until the market turns its back on me. >> grasso all about the talk of the 200-day moving average not seeing a challenge there carter that's your talk. what do you see? >> delayed landing that's called when they call from the cockpit and say, we're going to have to circle a bit can't find a gate. it's annoying. it's better to land or better to be on your way, so it maybe a delayed landing. but here's a thing to put this all in perspective we're at friday and we know that the ten-year yield, while it did spike up today, closed lower, and it closed at 3.82% last friday of q-3, september 30, we were at 3.82% just think about that. september 30, friday, 3.82%, and here we are one of the last weeks in february, 3.82% yes, we have been as high as

4.34, low as 2.32, but basically rates are kind of where they belong >> and so the markets? >> so are stocks where they belong. >> exactly, tim's kind of making that point the stock market is where it belongs. the question is, what is the lift for the market? people say, carter, what is the catalyst for the market going down one of two ways. earnings growth, market expansion, or some combination of the two i don't see either of those. what can make it go down there's a funny thing called gravity. >> would you agree with that, tim? >> i believe in gravity, yes i've heard about it. it's one of these things that i see it as i get older. we'll leave that for another show, too. i guess ultimately if i look at gravity in the market and where we've tested the levels before,

i would make an argument the stock market is in a better position to break above the 4350 steve mentioned where mega cap tech is involved positioning is your friend broader dynamics not only for the market but where we're looking for the economy. i recognize as much as anyone, there are a lot of coming down our road if this is the market we have, i think you have to remain balanced. >> when you say better positioned for a move to 4,300 or above, this is a short-term call after that who knows because if we think about the market asing with a forward-looking mechanism. >> discounting mechanism. >> whatever you want to call it, it looks forward -- it's going to be looking past the bulk of the federate hikes in terms of the impact that seems like a lot to wrap your head around. >> you look at fed fund futures, and we're already telling a story of where the fed is not out of the picture, but the economy is in a place where -- we don't see earnings falling

off a map, and that's important for this equity move. >> part of that is the consumer still has a job, right >> critical. >> we're in such a strong labor market people still have money, increasing, though slowing, which is good, and cash levels are extremely high people have been nervous, are keeping cash on hand, and that's what's keeping it strong i don't see a lot of signs of recession happening. there are a lot of risks, but we'd really have to see things fall off a cliff for that to happen. >> what i hear from you guys, steve, goldman sachs, bank of america adding a rate hike the markets digested this well you can look at it in a couple ways but one is the markets digest it well even though in another environment it should have dropped by a lot if they heard an additional rate hike being added to forecasts.

>> if this were in another environment we would have been down 3%, 4%. it would have been a terrible -- especially before a three-day weekend. people would have been derisking. for me, when i look at the s&p, i look the s&p from 4,000 all the way up to 34,200. i think there's a big chance we play with the 200 handles, rinse and repeat the reason i say that is from bottom to top, the last retracement is 4,200 in the s&p. so we have to do a lot to carter's point, to overtake that level. i don't know what that's going to be, but i sure know that even mike wilson, who's probably the biggest bear on the street, has said that if we can navigate through the first half of this year -- dwront say that we're in the clear, but we've kind of avoided the huge onslaught the bears were talking about. >> let's get to apple, shares dropping almost a percent today.

the chart master doubling down on his sell call for the stock, saying it could drop even more carter, what are you looking at? >> apple's been a good performer, it's a ricochet sort of thing, but it hit its head this week at a pretty big level. we can see it on the charts. the stock is breaking trend. there's a minor uptrend in effect you see it there on your screen. you see the authority of the 157 and change you say, you can just annotate two random days. not really if you look at the second chart and go back longer, basically this 157 and change level, quite precisely has been where the stock faltered now for the third time i think it has downside risk, at least 4% or 5%. >> 4% or 5%. tim, does this square with your view of the market going to 4,500? >> it does

last night i threw qqqs out there. apple is a part of that. some of the moves have been extraordinary, and i think there are places where you can be tactical i agree with carter. i own apple, but i'm largely flat on apple and have been since 161. i was with the 125 on am i don't want to own this thing until at least 125, and i think it's going to go lower you can trade it and pick your horses to trade around i would rather trade the qs. and again, if anything, i think things look a little bit stretched. but my general view is market -- >> apple's a large portion of the overall market, so it make it tough for the market to grow with that. i'm less pessimistic mainly because they have so much cash on hand. when you add that cash is finally getting some interest, that actually does help something like an apple, which is better than other tech companies. short-term there might be move down, but when i say i'm not

investing in tech, apple i'm okay with more than the others. >> we've got a market flash on sigma lithium, jumping after hours on a report that tesla is weighing a bid for the company kw according to bloomberg any considerations are in the early stages we just heard about general motors making a investment in lithium america. all these ev makers trying to square away their metal supply, grasso interesting move here. >> yeah, this is definitely what all of the evs are reaching for, and you've heard me say it before tesla has the size and the scale and the supply chains over everybody else if they have that, this is another piece of the puzzle, so you brought it up -- gm has been in this space as well. tesla wants to continue to lead, and the price action in tesla is nothing but astonishing, where

you had it fall out of bed yesterday, rally back, and close right around the highs i think it continues to be the leader and continues to position itself in the evs going forward. >> by the way, the move in sigma lithium, it's a big move, and the stock is not a small one it's a $4 billion company. tim. >> story of the week really in the auto space was ford. ford talking about how much they're going to have to spend on ev, securing supplies the fact that if you look at the michigan battery plant, when you talk about the independence and what it means for all these major players in ev. so not surprised we're going to see this if you're tesla and you have a valuation -- they may not think, so but i think the valuation is extraordinary. some can be accretive. i know this is where they should be putting their balance sheet to work. >> carter, what does the tesla chart look like? >> it's steep, uncorrected, and rallied to a difficult level with new money here i'm a seller, not a buyer. >> all right coming up, the world's largest

retailer kicks off earnings, but what can we expect walmart to say about the strength of consumer and demand? later, shares of nvidia. how they're aypling this name. more "fast money" right after this . oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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welcome back to "fast money. retail taking up the earnings mantel next week stocks underperforming the broader market what can they say about the state of the consumer to turn things around? grasso, a lot of these, especially walmart and target, they have been drag down by a lot of this was these retail sector or the entire sector clearing out their shelves and discounting to a certain extent. walmart specifically, 56% of walmart's revenues come from groceries, so there's a lot of noise around that number, melissa, because of food

inflation. i think food inflation will slowly start coming down, and i think that's going to be impactful to revenue for walmart. having said, that home depot underperformed and the contractor is a big part of revenues for home depot. so i think the contractors still have a backlog of business that's going to push that forward, so i think home depot is going to be catching up and maybe outperforming lowe's, but walmart is cloudy, and the consumer probably strapped and still looking for bargains. >> credit saying they expect walmart to miss, the reason is because they think there's going to be markdowns on inventory, and operating will continue to be pressured this quarter. >> big weeks coming up by the way, those are interesting terms. i kind of get them it's like that line below the

hard deck in "top gun" any way, let's get back to where we should be here. the story for walmart is you've got groceries. they have been a major beneficiary. i think walmart remains defensive because they've got some flows from digital add, from walmart plus. a little bit of the best of both worlds we talked about higher inflation, food costs. i'm long walmart, and it's outperformed target by 25% over the last year. but this is the one place where i think you're very well positioned with a consumer that's trading down and a consumer who needs to be at walmart. they have price leadership. >> i think what you're going to see with the overall consumer when we see the retailer report, likely we're going to continue to see a strong consumer that hasn't been a problem if anything, the consumer is too strong, but you are going to see trading down, which could affect

wall marmt i also like home depot. in the housing sector, foo affordability has been a problem. peep are staying put, not getting new houses and just putting more money back into theirs, and they have seen a lot of demand even into their pro business i like the retailers i think we're going see a strong week, but i think it's going to speak well to the consumer >> carter give us the rundown of the charts. >> walmart, speaking of groceries, if you were to take the absolute low of the financial crisis, walmart has been underperforming the stock market ever since. the stock market more than doubled the performance of walmart. i don't see the point. i like target better than walmart. it has all the elements of a bearish to bullish reversal. home depot, the problem here is it's relative performance to home builders is so poor

so the lowe's. i don't see the point here there are so many opportunities to win or lose these just don't seem like they're timely, dynamic, or interesting. >> when carter says pair of 2s -- >> i hope i never get a pair of 2s. shares of deere pounding higher we're getting a lowdown after the break. we are celebrating black heritage, here's cnbc contributor -- >> my personal and professional journey is highly influenced by the history of the african american experience here in the united states the struggle and sacrifices made for freedom, justice, and equality made it clear to me the need to continue to press forward, no matter how difficult the challenge. our advancement here in the nation in education, science, politics, arts, and culture has

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>> yeah, and also said raw materials. there was so much to pick apart in this release. raw materials and freight costs declining, labor still a problem for them, and energy prices. but they did say what i was most astonished by, the $1.2 billion in profit, two-thirds was from them raising prices some that to me is probably unsustainable, and they did say that they're looking to lower prices some time in the near future. so i think that the chart looks like if the stock wants to roll over i know it's a different business, but cater pillar's chart looks bet intercontinental infrastructure bill coming through, they're going to start getting checks i'd rather bein cat than deere deere impressive off this printing but there's head winds going forward. >> carter, do you concur the chart looks like it wants to

roll over? >> what grasso is speaking of is it has been rolling over is that enough to save it? not impressive enough. stuck at current levels. >> nothing runs like a deere. >> i own one i can't wait to get back on it this crazy weather in the northeast makes me yearn to get back on my john deere, and i know you're probably jealous as we think about it, what they told us today was not only did they see the ag turf business strong, but margin improvement because of that, that's helping this multiple. i'm not chasing this one, but i love -- nothing runs like a deere. >> full-time for final trades. go around the horn steve grasso. >> i know everyone is negative apple. i'm still long it and think you could stay wit use a 147/39.

>> carter? >> to add to your goal, and for a minor, agnico eagle, buy it for a balance. >> courtney. >> home depot. mortgage rates rising, it's going to continue to benefit home depot. >> i think walmart is not only a pair of 2s, but also three kings, and it's a full house i think these numbers next week are going to reassert -- they're going to be conservative, but i like walmart here. >> that does it for us for the week n'gonywhere. "options action" is up next. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer,

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right now on "options action," the debate continues with the s&p versus the vix, which is at a more powerful inflection point then they say there will only two certainties in life, death and taxes. but we're certain we can help you with both with some intuition on intuit. plus, the fed and options market, how all three might be playing catch up with each other. let's check out some of the names seeing the most "optio