right now on "options action," the debate continues with the s&p versus the vix, which is at a more powerful inflection point then they say there will only two certainties in life, death and taxes. but we're certain we can help you with both with some intuition on intuit. plus, the fed and options market, how all three might be playing catch up with each other. let's check out some of the names seeing the most "options action" this week. among them, tesla, apple,

amazon, microsoft, nvidia, and netflix. some etfs lighting up the options. the qqq, ark, emerging markets and spy. carter, between the vix and s&p, which do you think is at a more important technical level? >> i suppose the vix, if i had to pick. what we know is that vol -- as measured by the vix, any way -- in the past ten years had its low at 2017 and has been trending higher ever since you can see it on the screen here we're down now to a level where it has rebounded quite consistently over the past five years. i think you get a rebound here do you get a sell-off in the s&p? that's the presumption. >> michael, what's your take just refresh people's memories of this conversation we had, because i think it's an important one. there are a lot of heads being

scratched out there in the investment community as to why volatility seems to -- i don't want the say depressed, but tame. >> what's interesting is carter was just talking about that low in volatility you saw in 2017. there was an interesting dynamic going on at the time, because there had been a proliferation of products that encouraged volatility selling, and volatility is another way to think about insurance on the markets. that blew up in early 2018 that was the period that subsequently got called vol-mageddon now we have a slightly different product. that's the short dated option, zero days to expiration options have really taken off. in fact, they represent a significant portion of the options volume in products like spx each ander day this week was particularly interesting because four of the five days this week we saw call volumes in the vix that exceeded

to highest day all month in january. saw a purse of april calls so some big institutional bets on volatility rising i want to make an important point here when you're looking at vix futures and future options, these don't behave exactly like stocks each of the futures trades independently. what you're seeing the is term structure. spot is the spot vix and all the other pots are subsequent future but the important point i would make here is if spot vix rises, a those don't necessarily rise quite as much or as quickly. in order to get the, let's say, june futures over 30, you would need to see spot vix move in the long-term. either this is a longer term series of hedging bet or

somebody's expecting something really big to blow up in the near term. >> brian, you're a former vix trader what do you make of all this >> we used to trade major institutional orders against that and see a lot of that order flow and one thing that becomes a concern here is you look at the vix over the last couple weeks, basically since february 2nd, the vix is up 12%. the market is unchanged. hedgers are coming in and buying vix, buying spx that tracks s.p.y., the same thing it's starts to move up we saw march 30 call, not just the back ones. buyers on the upside usually a volatility event is brewing. member, the vix was up above 30 many may of last year, and the market was basically around this le level. so it's really gotten depressed is as a level that's interesting

to buy we have them as a hedge against equities because when volatilities -- if we're at a point volatility is going higher, you really got to watch yourself i don't know in vol-mageddon is due again, because it's hard for history to repeat itself, but likely an event is going to occur. >> and it's cheap now, so i would think buying insurance now would be attractive. >> typically you're looking at your at the money vol. that's what mike is speaking to. that's going to take you across the terms. but the other aspect is going to be skewed. when you're buying out of the money stuff, in term of vix, that's going to coincide as a sell-off or a flexing of those downside puts. either one of those will lead to a profitable outcome so even if you start to see a range trading but in a more violent way, that downside

protection, which is what institutions are always short, will likely pay off. so that's another aspect to think of when you're look about these upside calls. >> let's get to nvidia up nearly 50%. the most actively traded name in the options market carter, what does the chart look like >> huge winner off its low, but there in lies the problem. if the market is always looking ahead, if the stock price is trying to figure out three to six months out, how much of the coming news in the three to six months is priced in? i think a lot. for one, we've completed a well defined head and shoulders bottom you can see it there and we've retraced exactly half of the loss from the peak. i think it's rich, it's full, it's overdone, extended. whatever terminology one wants i'm a sell earthquake not a buyer. >> mike, i could see you nod your head in agreement here. you'd do the same? >> it's interesting, you take a

look at the options, you mention there's a lot of it this week. we saw a purchase of the march 275 calls. buyer spend 900,000 bucks for those. bigger premium was on a shorter dated downside bet, the march 215 puts someone laid out that nvidia is going to roll over by march 3rd expiration seems that this trader is betting that the news is not going to be good and the stock is going to roll down over the next two weeks. >> another company slated to report next week, monster beverage stock's move year to date not all that startling carter, where is this one heading? >> i like monster. so, we have a circumstance of a perpetual long-term outperformer versus the s&p or any aggregate you choose that's basically finally toying with the aspects

of breaking out from a dull period i think this is quite good i like it. long endurance. >> mike? >> yeah, interesting here in monster is that where we are seeing bet on higher volatility in a lot of places, monster's volatility is actually 10% below the two-year average, so if you're inclined to take a bullish bet the way carter is recommends, i'd suggest going out, buying the april 110 calls. those cost about $2.10, so you're risking about 2% of the current strock price. this thing has had quite a run i think it's up over 40% since then maybe a relatively stable business, but i think you can use calls as a cheap way. >> the valuation is rich versus historicals, and i will say the back half calms are more challenging than the front half for the year being that it has had an extended rally, if i was going to play for the upside, i'd do

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welcome back to "options action." another easternings week coming up grab your coffee mug, get ready for tax season, because mike is looking at two names to help you through the process. what's the first one >> intuit. everybody's probably familiar with their tax software turbo tax. this is an interesting situation this one, because of course that portion of their business at least, one would think, would be resistant to changes in the economy, because taxes are inevitable however, they have two other aspects to their business, which maybe are not quite so resistant to an economic downturn, credit karma, which makes its money with people getting new credit cards. we have seen consumer revolving credit is back to all-time highs. combine that with the fact we see higher rates i'm not sure

you're going to see new card openings quick books is focused on small business if we do see a economic slowdown that could be dangerous. right now it's trading in theory about 26 times full year 2024 earnings estimates what i don't like about that is right now they're forecast about a two-year double in eps and all time highs in margins, and i'm not sure they're necessarily going to achieve that. in this particular case, the company seems a little rich to my eye the earnings move is about in line i was just looking up to march, the 393/40 put spread. you could spend less than ten bucks for that if you own the stock, inclined to hedge or make a bearish bet, might be the way to do it. company seems a little rich here. >> yeah. what do you have, carter >> since it's ipo, it has doubled the performance of

microsoft going back to 1994, speaking of software now not only the market is lagging, microsoft stuck over the last eight months when everything is up i think it breaks trend here i don't like it. i'm a seller >> bonawyn >> i'm not pumped about the s&p exp exposure, and if you look at the price action, which i think carter was alluding to, you see tech -- price action reversed sharply from the 450 limit. yeti reporting results after the bell thursday. mike, how are you playing this one? >> yeah, so yeti, this is one of the holly index names. much to my chagrin, everybody wants to use yeti tumblers instead of glasses, and she doesn't want to put them in the dishwasher that drives me nuts. what's not been great ame historically is the price of the stocks but they have been growing nicely the stock prices come in, this thing is trading in the mid

teens in term of forward eps, so this is beginning to look attractive now, this is a name that moves around a decent bit on earnings and definitely did after the last one you'll notice if you take a look it got a huge pop after mid november, but the stock is at the same price options are expensive. here i like using a call spread risk reversal. if the stock does fall after earnings, get to pick it up. get participation to the upside. i was looking at the march 24th weekly, because that's the one that has these specific spikes buying those 45 strike calls and selling the 33 puts and 50 against it to get to only 30% outlay in premium. >> carter, what does the chart look like? >> yeah, to put this in perspective, to think that yeti is trading exactly where it was before covid game. it was a $40 stock it lost 60% of its value

ran all the way up in $110, gave it all back, and now is basing and bottoming right at where it was before covid hit is this business worth less or more than it was before covid it it's worth more. the pattern says it. it's bottoming out i'm a buyer. >> you strike me as a guy that has at least a yeti in his house. >> we have a handful of yetis. >> that's what i thought. >> listen, i'm not super pumped up about exposure to the consumer, but i like this nearby, specialty niche market i will remind traders you're going to have to be comfortable with cash at that level. keep in mind you have proper margining or cash reserves in order to assume the shares. >> mike, you're not supposed to

put insulated coffee mugs into the dishwasher system your gripe it doesn't look clean? >> i want to put them in the dishwasher holly tells me you're not supposed to. >> you're not supposed to. you ruin the cup. >> so the sink fills up with these things if you have teenage boys using them for orange juice, water, and everything else they carry, you have a lot building up. >> a look into the khouw household. ptnsctn"acinwo

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underperforming. you're seeing demand construction the numbers coming out recently lower than 2022, 2021. demand destruction couple that with builds and supply of both crude oil and gasoline supplies increasing. u.s. shell producers kicking in, increasing splice. high supply, low demand. that says prices should go lower. that's going to effect people like exxon mobil, which we do own for clients. i like the name. but i magnificent want to hedge that i can almost do a trade now that sets up well for march, the opposite of what mike said for yeti i want to buy the put at the same time financing it for the 115/120 call spread. here i correct 20 cents. new have this hedge on, play to the short side, play the short side below 105 the call stops me out to the

upside notice here i'm a net buyer of options, and the reason being, you talk about a bowling ball dropping in the pool creating a ripple to the other. if s&p is going to -- and volatility is getting ready to explode, option prices should increase as well i want to be a net owner of options, and by buying the put and selling the call spread, i can basically do that and play to the downside. this thing starts to turn around here in the energy market. >> mike, what's your take on this trade >> yeah, i mean, we have basically -- we're at the upper end of the five-year band for inventories and a lot of the products brian just mentioned, natural gas as well as the upper end of the five-year range commodity prices tend to move parter than you think they will. i want to say it's tempting to get in here and reach a little bit for natural gas, but i think you have to actually see the proof in a reversal in prices.

haven't gotten that yet. >> carter, you like exxon? >> well, it's all right. i guess sort of low add, not exciting we know it's coming off two of its best year on record, 2021, 2022, up 48 and some 59% respectfully so in and of i think, the xle on the screen, pair of 2s no real trade. we like the service name, slumberger, haliburton, type stocks. >> bonawyn, how about you? >> i don't think i'm quite as bearish on energy. i understand bills, destruction and the economy. i will say there's seemingly a floor to crude whether it should or should not be the case, you are seeing names trade in lock step with the understood lying commodity if you look at the capital discipline of the companies they're much better run. i like the options trade, your net collecting premium and it's

risk contained but i'm not quite as bearish. >> mike, carter raised an interesting distinction between the integrated and services. you had your druthers, which would you pick >> i don't have to you can the about initiating one, because i have one we're along marathon, haliburton, unfortunately were long devin just to be fair on the bearish conversation, we are net long energy name, so it wouldn't be reasonable to call me completely bearish, i just don't see a lot of near term upside. up next, an update on a hospitality stk isocwe dcussed last week. "options action" back in two thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support.

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good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. welcome back to "options action." airbnb surging more than 20% this week after a strong earnings beat. mike, you highlighted a big trade in this name just last

week. >> i saw those big april 105 puts trading there was bearish sentiment last week and right before earnings the street hates it, 25 holds and sells versus 18 buys the stock obviously got a reversal of sentiment bounce coming out of earnings, but take a look at the way it behaved today. that doesn't look healthy to me. i'm not sure the bounce we saw this week can last. >> all right, time to get to some tweets. our first fan asks, a few weeks ago, rt car worth charted tesla running to 170 plus, and after it hot to 210 plus today it trades around the 200 resistance support level where could it go from here? what do you think, carter? >> where could it go it could go anywhere could is not the word. you won't find this but once in a lifetime a lot of stocks drop from 200 to 100 and rally back or some derivative there of, meaning dropping 50% and recovering

100% but not at this market cap it's virtually unprecedented it's as his tarkle on the way up as down. the buying is rash, impetuous, overdown just as selling was on the way down leaves the stock difficult i'm a seller. >> our next tweet says work natural gas at lows how do you feel about calls for june 16 at the $5 strike? >> these are triple decaying instruments because you've got a levered etf has rolled cost and high volatility, so i think that's an expensive way to play it might go with ung instead. >> it is time now for the final call carter braxton worth, what do you say? >> vix for a bounce. market lower. >> brian stutland? >> volatility higher, but also check out exxon mobil, buying a put and selling a call spread. >> bonawyn.

>> i think those upside calls in vix are definitely worth a look. >> mike, what you need to do is only have one yeti cup per capita in your household and they have to be washed. >> unfortunately we have way, way, more than that, and i like the stock, because of that, reversals is the way to play. >> that does it for us on thank you, many -- melissa a deep dive into the world's second largest economy, china as one of the country's top tech ceos goes missing sending shutters through the investment company. shares tumbling 28%. hang