it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global p headquarters. here is the top "five@5. the fed risk is as strong as ever. a new note from jpmorgan chase for investors who think the u.s. avoided an economic down turn. and one year since the ukrainian conflict president biden visits ukraine yesterday. we are live with latest. and new insight into spending the consumer and supply chain as

we await walmart earnings as well as home depot it is tuesday, february 21st you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. your new host. thank you to brian sullivan. you will see changes around here one thing will stay the same we appreciate your time. we will work to make it worth your while we want to keep the connection going with you on air and online you can follow us on twitter and instagram. let's kickoff the hour with the stock futures. they are in the red across the board. a soft start to the morning so

far. this after a long holiday weekend with the rough week for stocks dow posting the first three-week losing streak since september. the s&p in the second down week in a row nasdaq barely holding on w with .60% gain the bond market trading at the highest level since december for the 10-year treasury 3.86%. up about 50 basis points from the low in mid-january we are watching energy oil coming off the four-session losing streak as it remains below $80 a barrel brent crude at $80 we are watching crypto as well bitcoin moving higher. now just below 25,000. down this morning. above the 20,000 mark which is a big sign of confidence in cryptocurrency we are seeing it below $25,000

let's get a check of the asian trade withjoumanna bercetche who is standing by in the london newsroom. good morning, joumanna >> good morning, frank congratulations on the show. let's get to markets it is a bit of a risk-off day of the week flash pmi at 52.3. the reaction is negligence trif to -- negative improvement in manufacturing and services the picture is negative as you can see. the ftse 100 trading below 8,000. the cac 40 is down similar amount a couple of stocks i want to highlight. hsbc the bank reported fourth quarter profit of $5.2 billion that is more than 100% higher than a year ago.

revenue increased by 24% in the final quarter of the year. we saw a roller coaster trading session this morning it is now trading in the green on the back of the revenue increase switches to ersminers. revenue fell 16% to under $26 billion for bhp. reverse reaction in trading. down 3 points. dragging down glencore as well finally over to telecommunications e er ericsson is cutting 1,400 jobs this is part of the order to slash this year and further job cuts may be coming oaccording to reuters. negative reaction there. one name pulling down the dax. overall, not a positive start to

trading today. frank. >> more job reduction nos in the tech sector. joumanna, thank you. let's get the top corporate stories are silvana henao. >> good morning, frank investors which are optimistic outlook are setting up for an disappointment it is too early to take recession off the table noting that monetary policy impact on the economy can lag up to two years. jpmorgan chase adding the first three months of this year will mark the high point for stocks in 2023. amazon stock price is hitting the paychecks. the pay packages which are tied to restricted stock could be between 15% to 50% lower than amazon's previous target

amazon says its compensation model is asking employees to think like owners. and renaissance holding extending the losses as the ceo is still missing employees are being told not to believe rumors the reason for the disappearance remains unknown and reuters says this is following a similar incidents where ceos have gone missing with the government cracking down on corporations. frank. >> silvana henao, thank you. turning attention to the russian invasion of ukraine. president biden is in poland this morning after the surprise visit to ukraine yesterday biden meeting with volodymyr zelenskyy to signal the

solidarity with ukraine and announcing fresh aid to the country. steve sedgwick is joining us from warsaw, poland. layout the key focus with president biden's visit to ukraine. >> reporter: frank, good to see you today. congratulations on the post. taking it from sully i'm sure you will do a fantastic job. pivotal speech coming up later on today the press is here. we are outside the royal castle. historic part of warsaw the surprise has happened on the trip after a close veil of hesecrecyt the white house, he did make the trip to kyiv and what an important trip underlining support militarily and economically for mr. volodymyr

zelenskyy and the ukrainian people i think the key point of this visit and an ththe visit to kyis the west is here for the long term and the u.s. is here for the long term. putin's point is to make it a puppet state in ukraine as it was in 2014 before the revolution now, of course, it is a longer-term conflict in donbas and kherson and kyiv as well the message from president biden is we are here for the long term the russians in listening to mr. putin today is a if we erode the confidence of the west then ukraine is there for the taking. if they create frozen conflict over the longer term, as they have already had in the east of the country, maybe that is the

tactic and mr. putin is saying that and mr. biden will say no you miscalculated again, vladimir putin. >> we will have more on the president's remarks. president biden's remarks. historic visit to ukraine. >> reporter: frank, that is the key question who is the speech directed toward i think it is directed at the nations of the world india is trading well with the russians it is aimed at the chinese with the rivalry with the u.s specifically looking at what the west will do here in ukraine to see if there is an opportunity for the chinese in taiwan. it is for the nato allies. they are meeting allies here in wars warsaw it is the eastern flank. it is to them and they have been the hawkish on russia.

we are here to support you we have permanent support. i think it is key for domestic united states and congress to say look, we know the support across party, but we need to shore up the support and make sure it is there that means more funding out of congress and it is for the american people as well. as we know, mr. biden potentially eyeing a second term this could outline a large amount of foreign policies and what he is thinking on the geopolitical stance if he is running for a second term. >> before we go, you mentioned vladimir putin is speaking now what can you tell us about what he said? >> reporter: i think it is interesting listening to vladimir putin's view of world history and events he is right about one thing. one thing he said is the west underestimated the russian economy. it is fair to say you and i would have been interviewing people a year agoi, russian

economy and sanctions and embargoes and the russian economy will folloall 20%. it didn't. it fell 2% one thing he got wrong in terms of how much support he sees mr. putin is seeing of the west for ukraine. he sees it as a battle of russia against the west he is saying the west is under estimating russia and the west fighting in ukraine rather than invaded ukraine and stabilizing the world. putin blaming world food shortage not on himself or grain embargoes out of ukraine, but he blames the west. >> steve sedgwick. thanks for having your finger on the pulse of the situation when we come back on "wex," retail results on deck with

walmart and home depot we look at the supply chains and a struggling sector. plus the ceo of norfolk southern in ohio over the weekend monitoring the clean up after the devastating spill there. there is doubt over his good word. and the supreme court takes the first look at the law that long protected that sector from legal rmha on tech a very busy hour on "worldwide exchange" when we return stay with us all good, thanks maura! healthier is managing all your family's prescriptions in one app. ♪ old school wisdom, with a passion for what's possible. that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." futures pointing to a lower open as investors wait for economic data and minutes tomorrow from the fed's latest meeting it raised the benchmark rate of 25 points. fed members are pushing for more rate hikes more more on the rate hike risk is matt orton. m matt, great to you have on >> great thank you, frank >> the dow coming off a three-week slide we are seeing rates on the rise. what do you expect from the action today and tomorrow until we get the fed minutes >> the normalization process is going to continue for a little while longer what we had for a long time is a disconnect with the federal reserve telling us consistently which is rates are higher for longer and the market for a long

time didn't believe what the fed was saying when we came into the year, we had a nice rally in the equity markets and fixed income has sharply turned equities, on the other hand, have only started to do that the higher duration and lower parts of the market have room to come down. >> i want to talk about riskier assets investors have faith in the risky assets the poster child is the ark etf. we have seen in february with those stocks taking a slide. the rates rising 50 basis points from the low in january. how much longer do you see the trend continuing what can stop the trend of risk-on? is this investors being confident in risk as sets >> risky assets were oversold

coming into the year we have gone too far too fast. i talk to clients and the message is don't chase the market higher. the market needs to start rewarding fundamentals and the equity markets needs to price in federal reserve expectations before we can start to sus sustainably move higher. you have short interest being rewarded in the market and that's just not a really solid footing for the market lean into what should be working. we have a higher probability of a soft landing, but you want to own profitability. valuation still matters in the market free cash flow matters in the market own quality tech if you want to add risk, i have been advocating to small caps. under performs the broader market for a long time with small caps

they have opportunities for expansion which will exceed large cap. if is there an area, i think small makes a lot of sense. >> this is "worldwide exchange." we focus on u.s. markets i want to talk about global markets. you are bullish on the european stocks xxxp why for newscus on europe? >> europe is a much higher value market than the u.s. it lagged the u.s. for a longer time within europe, i don't like the entire masrket some areas have gone too far to fast one area that is interesting is banks. european banks have seen with rates moving higher and real rates moving higher, european banks have been posting good quarterly profits and they are

larger weight within the inn te - index. i would say give european banks a much closer look there are opportunities there. >> matt orton of raymond james, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," president biden is rpseting poland after the suri visit to kyiv we are back after this help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." walmart and home depot kicking off the earnings week as investors look for insight in the consumer with macy's warning of weaker sales during the holiday season let's talk about the retail week with jharonne martis good to see you. >> good morning, frank >> jharonne, i have to kick this off before the bell. walmart. one thing i want to look at is the estimate of same-store sales of 4.6% in the u.s. compared to 8.2% growth last quarter that is a big slowdown in growth is this a walmart specific story or retail in general >> what is interesting is that analysts actually increased the estimate as the quarter

progressed at the time when entered the lower for the retailers. this is because of the consumers moving from discretionary to staples. they believe grocers are going to be a big win for walmart to push the numbers up. >> a lot of retail earnings we want to talk about, but we are having audio issues. we will try to get you back on the show and resolve those let's get a check of the other headlines with phillip mena in new york with the latest good morning, phil. good morning, frank. two weeks after the quake that killed 35,000 people, another earthquake hitting turkey and syria. the the only remaining hospital had to be evacuated.

1 190 people were hurt in syria. rescuers are again looking for those trapped in the rubble. prosecutors downgraded the manslaughter charged against alec baldwin on the set of the film "rust." new mexico district attorney dropped the firearm inclusion against baldwin which called for a mandatory five-year prison sentence. finally, brooklyn is saying see you later, alligator maintenance had to do a double take after a four-foot gator at a lake in a local park it is unknown how it ended up there. now it is recovering from the cold at the bronx zoo.

frank, back to you. >> anything can happen in new york city. phillip mena, thank you. still to come, an unopened original iphone sold for big bucks. and gigantic debut for "ant-man" movie. i saw it it's good. if you miss us, check us out on apple or other dcpoast apps "worldwide exchange" will be right back stay with us logists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world.

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it is 5:30 a.m. in new york. we are just getting started. here is what is still on deck. investors hoping to get back on track after the third straight we week of losses for the dow. and president biden makes a surprise visit to ukraine before the key speech. and the future of the internet and tech's biggest pla players up for decision. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back i'm frank holland. your new host for "worldwide exchange." you will see a few changes we appreciate your time and we

will work to make it worth your while. we want to keep the connection going with you on air you can follow us on wex and twitter and instagram. @f @frankcnbc futures are in the red s&p and dow down .50%. stocks coming off a mixed week with the dow posting the first three-week losing streak since september. s s&p down two weeks in a row. we want to turn to the bond market the ten-year note at 3.88. that is 50 basis points higher than the mid-january low we want to hit oil wti and brent off the third negative week in the last four

wti below $80 a barrel brent crude up to $84. let's get the top stories with silvana henao she is back. silvana. >> good morning, frank let's start with the supreme court. it is slated to take up to two cases this week tackling big tech and content moderation. one lawsuit against google and one against twitter. section 230 of the decency act that federal law says tech platforms are not libel for what users post tech companies may not be liable for the content of the posts, but should be for what the algorithms promote and the head of the norfolk southern railroad will meet with residents in ohio following the train derailment and chemical spill. the visit follows one by the ceo

of the company that open rated h train carrying the chemicals norfolk southern meeting with the people promising the company is here to stay until the area is made whole from the disaster. according to the washington post, three months before the derailment, he visited d.c. to lobby against safety rules to prevent derailments. we will hear from alan shaw in the first cnbc interview today at 4:00 p.m. eastern. and japanese subsidiary of ftx started to return money to clients. they allowed clients to withdrawal funds overnight frank. >> silvana, thank you for the headlines. great to see you. turning attention to russia's invasion of ukraine as we approach the one-year mark.

president biden in poland this morning meeting with leaders after the surprise visit to ukraine yesterday. he met with president volodymyr zelenskyy which is seen seen asa sign of solidarity nbc's jay gray is on the border with poland with more on the historic visit by president biden. >> reporter: frank, we are in the train station a few miles from the border. it is the first stop for refugees who escaped the fighting still 20,000 a day when i was here a year ago, it was so crowded that you could not make it from the front door back to the track. that has changed a bit there is a more regular train system it wasn't in the public area, but this is the same station

that president biden used to take the ten-hour trip to kyiv and offload in a separate and secure area. today, he is back in warsaw. he will meet this morning with president duda and spend time discussing what he can do to help with the refugee crisis and later today engage in a speech where he is expected to talk about a lot of what he is going to offer to ukraine by the way of weapons and support and radar support which will help with the rockets and missiles launched into the area. also, we are told, making direct appeal to the russian people that, of course, coming on a day when president vladimir putin in russia finished his national address talking about the war in ukraine. frank. >> jay gray, live in poland.

thank you for that report. for more on the invasion of ukraine and where the conflict may head next, let's welcome in retired general steph twitty he is a military analyst for nbc and msnbc. >> good to be here, frank. >> let's talk about president biden visiting ukraine visiting an active war zone and that is historic what does that say >> it is unprecedented and gutsy for the leader of the free world, our president, to go to ukraine given this is not a u.s. war zone and no u.s. force there is -- forces there what it says is the u.s. will stand firm with ukraine. it sends a message to putin that you won't win. it sends a message to the nato

allies that we will continue to stand ironclad with nato, the 30 countries, and the two coming on board with finland and sweden. >> you mentioned nato several times. let's take a step back what have we learned about nato and russia and ukraine >> russia is not ten feet tall in the military which is inn p c -- incompetent. they failed to take kyiv they tried to take the south that failed on them. we continue to see they cannot get their act together to become vict victorious what we see with the ukrainians is the ability to fight for the homeland and their will which is phenomenal to see an impressive country fight the way they have fought

what we have seen in nato is a united nato. ironclad in the fight against ukraine and all pulling behind ukraine providing the necessary equipment to be successful in the war. >> lieutenant general, we are focused on investing here on cnbc the war in ukraine has macro economic impacts to the supply chain and commodity prices and led companies to pull out of the region, specifically russia. what can we expect when we look at the market? ukraine is the breadbasket of europe i know your expertise is military, but what can we expect as investors going forward and is there an end to the conflict in sight >> we need to prepare for the protracted war here. the war has gone on for a year and still at no resolution

one of two things have to happen for a stop to the war. negotiations have to begin no one is negotiating at this point in time. that will not stop if we don't get negotiations number two is a successful limit. there is a grind back and forth. no successful winner at this point in the game. so, for investors, we have to be prepared for the long term of fighting in ukraine for quite some time. >> lieutenant general steph twitty, thank you. we will keep you on speed dial for future insight thank you. >> thanks, frank. coming up, a warning from jpmorgan chase why market bulls may set up for disappointment. and as we head to break, the top trending stories united airlines opening up more seats for kids to sit with

adults "ant-man" scoring $104 million this weekend that is double the first film that opened in 2015. the third highest grossing film in 2023. an unopened first generation iphone sold for $63,000 at auction this week. over 100 times the original price in 2007. bidding for the devices estimated to go for $50,000 started at $2,500. "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com

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welcome back i want to turn back to retail earnings and results from walmart and home depot i want to bring back in jharonne martis we had tech problems earlier i don't think everybody heard your answer. 4.6% for this quarter for same-store sales compared to 8.2% last quarter. is this a retail story or wal

walmart? >> it is a retail store as consumers have been sticking to staples. what is interesting about walmart is analysts are lowering estimates, but they have been raising for the walmart as the quarter has been progressing this is because they are bullish on the fact that grocery sales offsets the weakness in the discr disc discretionary spend. walmart can gain market share from the high-end and low-end consumers. ecommerce is expected to be solid. we expect to see double digit growth we are expecting a good day for walmart. >> walmart is a big one. we have home depot later today and tjx and e-bay. is there one theme or one met icmetric we should look for in how the

companies really look? >> we have been receiving a lot of negative guidance retailers are warning us not to expect much for the first quarter. for every positive guidance we receive, we receive seven negative this is around the inflation picture. this is the word we are hearing overall in the retail earnings calls. to date, 103 retailers reported earnings and 75 reporting inflation worries in the earnings call. we are keeping a close eye on inventory levels and gross margins because promotions were high in the month of january that is what actually boosted january retail sales last week when the government reported those numare thing s we will se

they move promotions >> you gave us great stats about discounting actually acce accelerating after the holiday season into january. give us a sense, is that in response to inflation or retailers with too much inventory? why? >> the discounts is luring shoppers in. we talked about the death of the department store and the department stores posted the strongest numbers in the month of january because they became promotional to lure shoppers in and it worked in collaboration that the promotion rose 40%. the highest in over a year it worked. shoppers came in and we saw strong january sales unless they find a good discount, they will not open their wallets.

it is important to have that that is why walmart is poised to be a big winner this week retail >> before we get you go, we show the target chart target is next week. what do you expect similar for walmart, but not as big as a grocery business? >> we think of discretionary spend. they are sticking to staples grocery prices have gone up. as a result, in order to save money, we are seeing walmart better poised than target this season we are expected to see promotions at target to move a lot of inventory probably not as good as walmarts numbers today. >> consumers love discounts. it could hit margins jharonne, thank you. as we head to break on "worldwide exchange," we

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jobs it is a plan to reduce costs by the end of the year. and the amazon stock price is hitting the paychecks of the work force it is tied to stock units which could be 15% to 50% lower than the previous target. shares of renaissance holdings extending the losses as the whereabouts of the ceo are a mystery. the executives in charge are telling employees not to believe speculation or rumors. brad smith is in brussels to make the case for microsoft's bid for activision chinese giant ant group is entering a partnership to give ali pay users access to the

league's content t. will with move to marketing and digital collectibles and watch for earnings from coinbase and home depot. tomorrow, we get baidu and bumble on thursday, earnings roll on with alibaba and beyond meat and bookings we get initial jobless claims and real gdp to round out the week with personal income and home sales and then fed speak from loretta mester and susan collins and jpmorgan chase says investors may set up for disappointment the bank says stocks don't bottom before the fed hikes rates and it is too early to say if recession is off the table. jpmorgan chase says the first quarter will mark the high point for the year pointing to warning

signs from the inverted yield curve. let's talk more about this now with sylvia jablonski and greg branch sylvia and greg, great to have you here >> good morning. thank you. >> what do you see in the market, sylvia the dow and s&p off a two and three-week slide and now futures in the red >> we started the year strong. january was a great month for markets. part of that is the investors had a bit of appetite to come back into the market to take on risk and started thinking the fed may be closer to being finished than starting to look through and see how it holds up. earnings are okay. they are stable. some inflation reads are coming in hot you had cpi and ppi hotter i think that now brings us back

to reality that the fed may have to hike for longer and stay higher for longer than expected. they have been telling us all along. the short-term volatility is expected because the market keeps reacting to the news for long-term investors, it is an okay time to look through if you have holdings out beyond 2024 and 2025 to scoop up some names. >> greg, are we at an inflection point and investors have given up hopes of a pause or pivot >> i don't think we are at an inflection point i agree with one thing sylvia said and disagree with the other. the market has bnot been listening to the fed the fed has been saying it needs to get up to the 4.5% level because that will curtail

inflation. the market is not listening. i agree with jpmorgan chase. we have seen the highs of the year the fed cannot pause at 5% terminal rate at this point. employment at 3.4% less than when we started cycle. you have to believe either the fed will change the inflation mandate and no longer focused on the 2% long-term sustainable rate and say 3 or 4 is okay or believe the last 50 basis points are a magic pill to cure all or they have to do more i long said, frank, it is a 6% rate we are looking for more maybe more the market is not prepared for that 50 basis points and follow the by -- followed by the 25. i think the equitiy marketings

are -- markets are coming down. >> you believe the rate could get up to 6.5% you manage money i assume some will remain in the money. what stocks do you feel comfortable in this environment? >> if you need exposure, you want to look for sectors with relative safety. relative safety is deteriorating macro environment and demand is inelastic. we want to look for things that will profit off higher interest rates. financials are a great example hsbc improving net interest margin with the double profit. most of the bank's profit is driven by the net interest income in the environment that will improve, financials are a great thing to look at credit cards are a great thing to look at we saw record applications

historic average high of annual percentage rate is great for the credit card companies. they put in double digit top line growth. >> we have to watch that s sylvia, you gave us qt and machine learning etf hearing about a.i. and auto automation d does that make you bullish >> we saw the microsoft in investment in a.i. we know a.i. will change the future and that will change the medical world and defense and getting the credit score and driver-less cars it touches everything we do in our lives. we are only at the beginning the unlike the metaverse, it is

tank i tangible companies can use it in terms of customer service which is quanti quantifiable it will be portrayed the next couple years >> i want to get to the cru etf. will people continue to spend on travel and leisure >> people are spending this could change if there is a big recession. we hear it from every airline ceo. bookings are up. demand is 85% pre-covid. cruise ships and hotels and ararlt -- hotels and airlines are holding up >> we have to leave the conversation sylvia and greg, thank you as we wrap up "worldwide

exchange," futures in the red this morning something to watch as we enter the trading week that is it here on "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next thanks for watching. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market (swords clashing) while-had enough? tool help-no... arthritis.rades here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. the eagle has landed. that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? -one giant... uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game!

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good morning stock futures lower after the holiday weekend. on today's agenda, quarterly results from home depot and walmart. president biden set to speak in poland today. one day after the surprise visit to kyiv, ukraine meantime, vladimir putin gave his annual address earlier this morning. i missed that. blaming the west for conflict.

and meta following twitter's lead announcing a subscription plan for user verification. price is $12 a month it is tuesday, february 21st, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off today we have some red on the screen 216 points on the dow. it will be opening lower nasdaq opening lower 125 points down s&p off 33 points. treasury yields. flip the board