in search for both inbound and outbound travel. we see projects that may have been stalled, restarting, and we've seen a nice spike in inbounding queries for new projects. >> tony, we'll leave the conversation there thank you for joining us david, i'll send it back to you. >> seema, thank you. looks nice and warm. this is the part of the show i say so long. let's go to carl and sara on the floor. good tuesday morning i'm kcarl quintanilla with sara eisen on the floor of the new york stock exchange. let's talk about the agenda. carlyle group, and dirk van de put, we'll get his take on consumer strength and inflation, and robert shiller, as rates

continue to rise, what does that mean for the housing crisis? higher rates, two big earnings movers rattling the streets between walmart and home depot. >> that is our top story the two earnings movers tops the tape for us. cautious guidance and a weaker consumer the story here with walmart, now off the lows actually it ticked higher throughout the last hour home depot dragging down the dow. it's still down more than 5% walmart pointing to thinner balance sheets and declining savings rate as catalyst for the full-year slowdown with cfo warning of a pressured consumer. home depot missed on sales and drop in profit for 2023, another warning on pressure from the cfo, pointing to a consumer shift from goods to services pressure, rates, a cash-strapped consumer mike santoli will join us on the floor to break it all down enter, mike santoli, welcome it's hard to glean a message on the consumer from these two giants because it depends on what categories they're in

we know housing is weak, for instance, and grocery is strong. that's where walmart plays. >> it feels like the consumer is such a watched pot right now everybody is eager to call when they turn from basically being in good shape, flush, high wage growth, good savings cushion, to when they get exhausted. it's very difficult to look at the goods sector and the retail chiefs to get that signal. i was looking back on a three-year basis, the three-year charts are great because it takes to the eve of the covid crash. home depot and walmart up 25%. the s&p is up a little less than that the point is, we're spending at a very high level and we're sort of waiting for when it just sort of tips. meanwhile, the pmi comes in better than expected today we see a reacceleration in manufacturing. what are we hoping for the consumer remains in okay shape and, therefore, emboldens the fed to do more or the consumer moderates and we --

>> we the investor is different than what we're hoping for. >> i mean we as the market. >> aren't we watching sort of a fire burn through various income strata for example, we're watching auto delinquencies. people talk about france's stock market at a record high because they're basically based on luxury, which is holding up. >> the index is skewed towards luxury there's wear and tear at the lower end. as sara said before, coming off such a base of strength in terms of consumer balance sheets, the household debt service ratio, all debt service payments relative to disposable income is below -- that burden is below almost anywhere it was in the '90s or '80s in other words, it's coming from this level of, we've had enough. i still don't think it helps us that much in terms of these stocks you buy walmart at 22 times earnings because it's a safe port in the storm. home depot looks a little more modest are mortgage rates going to get to 7% tomorrow that's the world we're sitting in.

>> one thing i've been thinking about is how would the fed view these earnings reports in light of a very strong retail sales number we got for the month of january? look, the good news for the markets, it doesn't seem like anything we're getting on consumer earnings is super bullish. in other words, points to the fact they would have to go 50 or even more than expected. it just shows they're going to have to wait and see because the data signals have been so confusing. both on disinflation and on the strength of the economy. the atlanta fed tracking for gdp for first quarter is more than 2% i mean, that's a hot number, but i think it still shows that, you know, we don't exactly know where it's going. >> 2% real, inflation still running at 6%. there's a top of top line in the economy still growing. one thing the fed will notice, home depot paying more to retain staff. they're not going to be spilling workers back into the -- >> $1 billion. mike, thank you. >> mike santoli. as the s&p hits its lowest

level of the month, the vix rises to almost the highest on the vix. mike wilson offers his take on the macro over the weekend he says the bear market rally that began in october has given way to a speculative frenzy based on a fed pause that is not coming is he right? joining us today, carlyle group's co-founder, david rubenstein it's great to have you thanks for joining us today. >> my pleasure for being here. thank you for having me. >> you've been pretty clear, even when the market sort of doubted it, that inflation would be persistent. do you regard the last few weeks as the market coming down to what chair powell has been trying to get across for months? >> i think the market is finally recognizing that inflation is not going away the fed is resolute. they made it clear several times recently that they really want to get the rate down to -- inflation rate down to 2%, not 3% i think the market takes the fed very seriously but that doesn't mean we're going to have a hard landing or so-called recession.

it's too early for anybody to really know whether that's going to happen or not >> do you think the market got too excited just over the last, i don't know, few weeks and month about a fed pause and a fed pivot? you spoke to fed chair powell. i don't think he sounded particularly dovish, do you? >> i don't want to characterize it, but i would just say he made it clear that they are determined to get the inflatio rate down. and i think the earlier expectation that maybe there would be rate cuts bit end of the year, i think that's out the window based on what we now see and what he now sees clearly the market could change, the world could change based on what the fed sees now, i'm not authorized to speak for the fed, i don't think the fed will decrease rates this year. that to some extent is being reflected in the stock market. >> what about the deal environment, david i always like to ask you what you're seeing in terms of deal flow and, you know, really

obviously dried up last year 2023 look different? >> the market is getting better. obviously, there's fewer deals being done than people in the business world would like, or at least in a deals world i know there's a number of deals in the works and there is debt available for well-structured deals at reasonable prices there is debt there. not just for the banks but from other lenders. i do think you'll see more deal activity in the next few months. i just believe that the principle we've had recently is people were expecting a recession and, therefore, buyers were reluctant to buy into a recession. it's not clear if they expect a recession or not, but people are beginning to lower their expectation, sellers are getting somewhat lower in what they wanted to get from prices when they sell. i think buyers are maybe stepping up a little more. i think we'll see more deal activity the gap between sellers and buyers is not as great as it was nine months ago or six months ago.

>> to extend that to, say, the equities in the ipo market, the journal and others have done stories about budding interest in, say, online gaming and restaurants and even some areas of tech that might eventually find a window to come to market. do you think that ends up being, i don't know, a q2 dieynamic, a second half dynamic? >> hard to say you have to recognize there's a fair amount of growth capital out there right now. that money can be used to extend the company's stay as a private company. it used to be that after two or three years as reasonably profit company, you would go public now you can get more growth capital to grow your company and the need to go public isn't quite what it was many years ago. i think it may take a while before you see people coming to the market as the prices they're happy to get >> higher for longer and private for longer, in a sense. >> we have more privately owned companies now than publicly traded companies for sure. that's because being in a private market has some appeal

to people. i don't think you'll see a rush of ipos right away it will take a while >> what about private equity in particular, because we're seeing more public companies go private via private equity buyouts than actual public ipos in your forecast that you just gave, you expect more deals this year does that include from private equity >> yes. >> how much of a driver? >> when i talk about deals, i'm talking about venture capital, growth capital and other kinds of things. in terms of companies going private, there's a lot of appeal to being a privately owned company, for sure. a lot of less regulation and oversight, so forth. a lot of ceos, a lot of boards are saying, well, maybe we would be better off to be private for a while, fix some problems we have outside of the viewership of all public traders, and then we can fix the company and take it public down the road. you're seeing more and more of that >> david, you're such a great purveyor of color from ceos, monitoring their confidence. we can look at charts of ceo

confidence but you generally get it fro the horse's mouth. would you argue that their confidence is, in fact, on the rise how are they absorbing -- if we're done, say, with supply chain worries, areas like geopolitics like we're getting acquainted with once again today? >> remember, you don't get to be a ceo by being a pessimistic person who doesn't think you can do things. generally, ceos tend to be optimistic people. from time to time they obviously have to adjust generally when you meet with ceos, they generally think they can get things done, more optimistic than the average person on the street when you meet with ceos, they don't think they can work their way through this economic uncertainty at times generally i like to remind people, the best time to invest -- and ceos know this as well when they're making acquisitions -- are when the markets are uncertain. that's when the best deals are done you don't want to buy when the markets are at all time highs.

i think ceos think they can buy things relatively cheaper than they could before. >> what about the fund-raising environment, david how has carlisle, in particular, been impacted? i know you've been on the ceo search, perhaps adding some uncertainty. >> we're very fortunate to have a new ceo, harvey schwartz did a terrific job at goldman sachs and we're fortunate he started last week. the fund-raising environment, i think, is okay there's a so-called nominator problem in the u.s. where many pension funds are overallocated because the public markets came down and their denominator went down i was in the middle east last week there's no such problem there. there's a fair amount of money to be raised there, a fair amount in the far east while some u.s. pension funds are not moving as quickly and not putting in as much money as they would have a year ago or two year ago, there is money around the world and people have to work harder to get it but there is money for fund-raising, for sure.

>> certainly the color from our friends who have returned from the middle east. david, as always, our thanks good to see you again. >> my pleasure thanks for having me. >> david rubenstein, carlisle. >> dubai got more people moving there than florida during covid. you know the brands, oreos, ritz crackers, mondelez outperforming over the last 12 months we're live with the ceo from a big consumer conference, talking inflation, labor and the company's new growth strategy. we are just getting started. the dow is now off more than 500 points we are looking here at session lows it's earnings, it's the fed, home depot is a big drag most of the dow stocks are lower right now. most of the s&p 500 sectors are lower. energy is the only one in the green, just barely

walmart and home depot telling a story today. a consumer starting to show some cracks walmart ceo telling cnbc that they are buying fewer discretionary items. mondelez in a survey find 75% of consumers find room for snacks in their budget. joining me is mondelez international ceo dirk, nice to

see you, welcome >> thank you good to see you. it's confusing, the consumer how would you characterize how the u.s. consumer is doing right now? >> our reading, we look at a number of things i would say the two big ones for us is, first, how do they feel about their finances i would say the consumers in the u.s. at this stage feel better about their family finances going forward than they did six months ago they kind of see light at the end of the tunnel. that's certainly what they declared in our survey the second one we look at is our categories, biscuit and chocolate. those categories are showing no easing up in the fourth quarter. they are growing as fast as

before it's an indulgent so it's a specific consumer. you can't talk in general what the consumer is thinking or doing. it depends which segment you're looking at i can't understand that overall there's probably a slowdown that can be observed. >> you're not seeing it, in part, because people always like to indulge it's less affordable, dirk, isn't it you've been raising prices big time >> yes, yes, it is less affordable. >> how much? >> now -- well, if you look at it, we probably over the last year, you can say that our prices have probably gone up double digit in the u.s. and so there is certainly something that the consumer is noticing from a price perspective. it all depends how important that item is in your budget. what we've seen is in food, consumers have been prioritizing that spending and reducing spending in other areas.

so since we are a big part of food and indulgence, that has helped us. >> double digit price increases from last year where does that go do you continue to raise prices? if so, at what pace? >> well, we have only tried to price away the cost increases that we've seen in our input cost you have to look at our input costs. and the input costs are flat if i look four months back, maybe even down a little bit from where they were four months ago. if you go a year back, they're still significantly higher than what they were a year ago. in the u.s. i would say we have largely implemented the pricing that we have to implement for the current level of input costs that we're seeing. and my impression, and potentially also my hope, is that the input costs will gradually come down, which means there's no need for extra pricing.

>> and then what and then do you bring back promotions do you bring down price? are you getting pressure from the likes of walmart to do those sort of things >> well, in our case, not really because our volume sales have been holding up, largely if you increase prices and volume keeps going, retailers are relatively happy with our brands at this stage i wouldn't say we have pressure in that sense. in the u.s. we particularly have had some pressure on our supply chain. we're getting back into inventory. this is not the time for us to self-promote and there's still price pressure and cost pressure from our perspective, we're not planning to increase promotions going forward. >> you have a really good read on the rest of the world, better than any of the consumer staples

with 80% of your sales outside of the u.s how does it look right now where are the pressure points on the consumer and where are the bright spots >> the bright spots, for sure, i would put the u.s. into the bright spots i think we are in a pretty good position the economy is doing relatively well consumers are not that preoccupied. the other bright spot are latin america and africa and the middle east and asia, where we have seen very good performance also the big worry area is europe where the consumer is clearly showing much more important signs of preoccupation and starting to really cut into what they buy europe, i would say, is the area to watch in the coming months. >> i was going to ask about europe because the data on europe has been a lot stronger and more resilient than everybody thought. warm weather certainly helped. but not recessionary type

numbers yet. do you see a change happening there? >> in our numbers we certainly still have to do significant pricing because we are not in the same position as we are in the u.s. we're going through a pricing round right now. we'll see the reaction of our clients and consumers will be on that pricing round after that we'll be much better positioned to see how the consumer is reacting at this stage when wetalk to the consumer and do market research, there's a significant difference in -- between u.s. consumer and the european consumer on how they perceive the future and their personal finances that's what makes me say, i'm more worried about europe. i understand the numbers don't show it immediately, but certainly the mind of the consumer orwhere they are in their expectations is a lot worse than what we see in the u.s. >> finally, i can't let you go without asking about the size of

malamars i told my friend, david faber, i would ask you when they will stop shrinking have they actually shrunk? and when does that happen? >> i have to admit that malamar is one of our smaller brands a bit surprised david is a consumer but thank you for that it's a great product i wouldn't say that it has shrunk in recent years i know that there was a period a while ago that they were bigger and then we reduced them not so much because of cost reasons but more of a portion size reason. he's probably referring to that moment at this stage he should be reassured we're not planning to reduce the size of malamar >> are you reducing the size of oreos and other brands is that still a thing? >> well, it has been less for us, but in our case, there's usually a number of cookies in a

pack we're not shrinking the size of the cookie but we sometimes take a cookie out of the pack to keep the right price point. price point is very important for consumers. as i said, pricing is largely done there might still be movement a little bit on the size of the pack, but that's going to be limited in the coming months >> all right maybe it's those input costs come down, you can add that cookie back in the pack. dirk, thank you very much. appreciate you taking the time >> thank you >> dirk van de put, ceo of mondelez it doesn't sound like package food prices from that interview are going to come down sharply any time soon but he said we've taken the price needed so as far as raising them, it doesn't look like he has to do that to match input costs. >> to keep running faster as the treadmill goes faster. perform nestle's comments, general mills and now mondelez,

they're not seeing the bounce back from the consumer. >> they say that's what the priority is for consumers. walmart, ceo or cfo used the word discerning. they're deciding to indulge more on treats. general mills raised guidance, canceled their interview on our show but clearly these food companies are doing just fine because they're seeing volume growth, sales growth and margin growth at the moment. >> whereas the consumer is cutting back in other areas less important. >> diy home projects, i guess. >> that's right. we'll take a look at energy prices as the president's trip to europe continues ahead of the one-year anniversary of russian invasion of ukraine. jd.com off more than 11%

welcome back take a look at nat gas futures down 6% today. down 50% in the last 12 months,

hitting its lowest level since december of 2020 got a similar story at wti crude coming off its third negative week in the last four. now trading below the 50 and the 200-day moving average this all happens as the president continues his trip to europe, meeting with ukrainian president zelenskyy over the weekend and, of course, that's just ahead of the one-year anniversary of the russian invasion of ukraine. let's get a news update with bertha coombs. >> hey, carl here's what's happening at this hour today the president is in poland where he met with that country's president, andrzej duda. they talked about imposing consequences on russia and duda thanksed biden for going to poland. chinese leader xi jinping is planning to meet with russian president putin in moscow in the coming months. they say the summit will be part of the chinese push for

multi-party peace talks to end the war in ukraine. and the government says this morning that the church of jesus christ latter-day saints and the nonprofit it operates to manage its investments will pay a total of $5 million to settle s.e.c. charges that they tried to hide the size of the church's portfolio using shell companies to file disclosure forms the church says it regrets, quote, mistakes made, and now considering the matter closed. sara, back over to you >> bertha, thank you. coming up on the show, existing home sales taking the biggest dive month over month since october of 2010. taking the home builders down with it. one of the biggest names in housing, robert shiller joins us with his outlook for the housing > w wnorrk. >>dodo me than 530 points at the moment ome to our d bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected

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time for the story abroad as europe's market closes, monetary policy in focus. one thing i was watching, stronger data indicating a healthier economy in europe. preliminary numbers from france, also hotter. the zew economic index sentiment in germany, nearly doubled month over month it's all good news for europe's economy, but also for those hawks on the ecb that say, europe has more work to do,

chris yan lagarde has more work to do when it comes to fighting inflation. so, perhaps, as we are kind of rethinking the fed outlook in this country, they're rethinking in europe how much the ecb -- the difference is the terminal rate there is priced in around 3% and we're above 5%. but there's a big jump in the european bond yield. >> clearly, energy prices, nat gas have been a huge relief for the continent. german pmi was expansionary for the first time in eight months, which is why it was so weird to hear van de put say the sentiment -- they have dodged many bullets. >> i think his point is, less we're seeing recessionary behavior but more psychological impact where everyone in europe expected a recession and they're dealing with the energy crisis so it's more in terms of chooseyness when it comes to how they're spending their money i picked up on that because the

numbers in europe have been better but the growth outlook is a lot weaker than the u.s. >> we're watching credit suisse, europe's big mover to the downside shares are lower as swiss regulators investigate these potential misleading statements by the bank's chairman on customer withdrawals outflows had begun in october, as you know, over questions on the health of the company. stock down 3% today. faber had some on this earlier this morning it's one of those stories that sort of linger in the background, but you don't want to take your eyes off it for too long. >> down 70% in the last 12 months yeah, i would say. speaking of movers, let's go post to post with bob pisani more on why walmart came back in today's trade and home depot did not, bob. >> i'm very excited. we're back on the floor with a camera i'm feeling very nostalgic about it a lot of people ask what happened with home depot versus walmart. hi, home depot wave home depot never got really into the rally mode

299 it opened just -- after the open it was 299. volume is huge it's already almost twice normal daily volume look at walmart, totally different story. walmart was at one point 142 and change just after the open almost immediately found buying. 147 now. we hold there. we get above 147, that will be the highest close for walmart since the middle of december the question, why walmart holding up, doing better, home depot not? i think it's pretty simple we're dealing with a very famous defensive name here. nothing is really working in retail right now if you look at what's moving, we have a defensive stock in a slowing economy. in fact, we have the ultimate defensive stock in a slowing economy. guidance, well, it wasn't particularly great but out of the way at this point. it's not as bad as owning a lot of other things. i think it explains a lot of things you were talking about general mills here the guidance up 4.5% it's not just that look at the only stock up on the

dow, walmart, merck, procter & gamble, classic defensive names. elsewhere if you look, campbell's soup is up, kroger is up, kimberly clark is up, hershey is up. it's the most defensive stock you can go that's the largest and safest one i think that explains a lot of why they rallied this morning. back to you. >> bob, great to see you on that camera, on the wireless. that's nice to see you back on the floor, bob pisani. take a look at the hottest notes we've seen hit investor desks. goldman sizes up q4 results, looking at russell 3000 earnings calls. mention of labor shortages on these calls at the lowest level of the pandemic, 4.9% of calls this past quarter. peaked at 16.5% in q3 of 2021. he notes several companies have viewed the staffing situation as either back to normal or nearly normal he mentions hilton, yum,

hershey, starbucks, where they say if not improving, maybe even back to pre-covid level in terms of labor availability. >> i think the fed will pay attention to things like that. i heard it on the walmart call the labor market is tight but if i were to draw a comparison to six months ago, it feels a little better. it's not quite the same struggle to hire associates so, good news there, i guess, when it comes to fighting some of the tightness in the labor market, which the fed has been trying to do >> right next up is wells fargo, turning to cruise lines. they point to royal caribbean and carnival as potential winners as china opens they point to pre-covid travel levels would equate to $1 gain for carnival, $6 for royal caribbean. the likes of morgan stanley have

written about revenge travel it's largely travel within asia as opposed to transpacific if that changes, it will be interesting to watch. >> every time there's a new catalyst for the cruise lines, it doesn't quite pan out, right? it was the reopening of travel, the lessening of the cdc restrictions for covid that was supposed to help the cruise lines. they have done a lot better and bookings have been better. now it's china we'll see if that's finally the charm. the one group of the travel stock that haven't reclaimed their 2019 glory >> dwefinitely true well, royal caribbean down 2% today. pc makers getting note morgan stanley reducing the shipment forecast ahead of hp and dell next week they are raising targets on both stocks they say they believe we are approaching a, quote, bottom for the pc market. they note that despite consumer spending touching all-time lows, they're unchanged from the firm's prior survey. you'll see a lot of desks basically try to be first in line for when this turn eventually happens, at least on

hardware inventory it's been squirrely. difficult to pin down. >> it's interesting we're hearing it from the analysts we haven't heard that from the semiconductors, right? no one is calling a bottom in pc demand. >> i was looking at a deutsche note where they say it's not that it's not going to turn, it's that the magnitude of downturn this semis has been so dramatic that it's making the eventual turn much more harder to read. make sense >> for sure. we'll get a video tomorrow not as much pc exposure but we'll be watching that one. >> name that's appreciated the most, mega cap, how the market treats that. >> we'll continue to keep an eye on the broader market because the nasdaq is down 2%. the dow is off more than 540 points there are concerns about rates we're seeing the ten-year yield move up to 3.9%. the fed having to do more with better economic news we've been getting lately and concerns about earnings

home depot with a slowdown on transactions robert shiller on the housing market, concerns there as well existing home sales falling for the 12th month in a row. but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪ all across the country, people are working hard to bbuild a better future. t! so we're hard at work helping them achieve financial freedom. we're proud to serve people everywhere, in investing for the retirement they envision. from the plains to the coasts, we help americans invest for their future. and help communities thrive.

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of drops what should we expect as we get into the spring season joining us is the professor emeritus of economics, robert shiller. it's great to have you back. i know you've been watching short-term dynamics in housing and thinking about how they collide with the longer term dynamics, which are much different. >> yes the thing that is really striking, according to the s&p case-shiller data, that's our data, the housing market nationally peaked in june of 2022 and is down about 3.5% now already in nominal terms if you add to that the inflation, the real market has fallen even further. it's getting into double digit declines already so, i think that we can extrapolate some of this into

the short run next year or two future >> and then what happens after that >> it's tough to know. i think it depends a lot on neighborhood or other trends one thing that is a huge revolution that's going on, as you know, is the remote work revolution and the american time youused survey that working at home has gone up a lot. it's not just the stories. and so i think that that changes our outlook for housing. i don't think that it's so positive for the market. because people are spending more

time with their families and at home but they don't need a big, impressive home as much as when they're connecting on facebook or the like. our culture is changing. it seems to me that these showpiece homes is less of a driver of the market than it was a few years ago. >> pricing thaw track closely with the case-shiller home price index, both in the near and long term, do you think we've seen the peaks? >> i think we're at a local peak, we were in june. and these -- the home prices are very -- have a lot more momentum than a lot of other speculative prices that's because homeowners are slow to react. they don't turn on a dime. it's a life-changing decision.

so, it's filled with all kinds of emotions. and we know that surveys of mental health show that people have been anxious lately and so in the midterm it's hard to know whether people will deal with this anxiety by dropping out of the market or embracing it as a cure for their depression. the problem with predicting the outlook is the pandemic, which we're still vulnerable to a possible mutation that would make it another surge. >> we will cross that bridge if and when we ever get to it, i guess. i want to get you on some geopolitics. the president is speaking in warsaw now, arguing that kyiv stand strong, that russia's putin today is confronted by

stronger democracies has the market priced in geopolitical risks given the events of the last few days? >> i doubt that it has we're all trying to process. i was inspired by biden's appearance in -- that's pretty bold in a war zone and our psychology is hard to predict at this point. first politicians are people who have to pay attention to psychology you know, i think things are happening in russia that are -- there's more skepticism about putin than there was just a couple of years ago. we'll see what that does >> indeed. of course, china's willingness to get in the middle of that as well two very big important stories to watch between housing and

ukraine. robert, thank you. good to see you again. robert shiller. >> nice to see you >> probably not helping the mood in the markets today, comments from putin and from over the weekend. let's get a check on the housing derivative plays they're all moving lower today of course, home depot is the biggy. that's taking 111 points by itself off the dow after reaction to earnings down 5.5% concerns about fewer transactions there as well as profitability. they're going to invest $1 billion into their workers. up next, we'll continue to follow the aftermath from the train derailment in east palestine, ohio. we'll hear from the ceo of norfolk southern, the company that was operating the train, first on cnbc. don't go away. would you stop cg each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star.

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senator sherrod brown over the weekend did an interview on television, quote, it's the same old story, corporations do stock buybacks, big dividend checks, lays off workers these things are happening because the railroads are not investing the way they should in car safety and the rail lines themselves >> as i noted, we've amassed over a billion dollars in our safety program in the form of safety, equipment, in the form of technology. there's more to be done, as you can imagine, since this occurred every single day i've asked

myself what could we have done better what could we have done to prevent this and, morgan, it's pretty clear that our safety culture and our investments in safety didn't prevent this accident. we need to take a look at this and see what we can do differently and what we can do better that's my commitment >> that was norfolk southern ceo alan shaw speaking to our morgan brennan in east palestine, ohio. the ceo emphasizing they need to do better on safety. he touted more than a billion dollars of investment in safety, which i think will ring hollow do you know what they spent more on share buybacks, $4 billion last year on buying back their own stock. a $15 billion buyback program. if he's trying to win the populous war on the message on what they're investing in safety, and the victims' fund they've put in a million dollars, they're going to face a lot of heat. >> for so long the rails have

been graded on operational efficiency we look at average rail speed during the quarter interesting if the street looks at other metrics regarding, say, your safety ratio or injury ratio. we mentioned the upgrade of wolf but their target is only 225, where we are now. >> the stock is up, what, 10% or so since the accident. they're going to face lawsuits, but even more than that, they're going to face this public scrutiny across mainstream media and politicians. this is just the beginning of his apology. it's interesting you can watch the full interview "closing bell overtime" today with morgan, 4:00 p.m. eastern time meantime, the markets are continuing their move lower. the dow down 450 as the rates weigh. the worst performing component is the dow some cracks that may be forming in comrcl alste.meiare eat bucha: if i just stare at these payroll forms... my business' payroll taxes will calculate themselves. right?

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welcome back hybrid and remote work taking a steep toll on corporate real estate new reporting by "the wall street journal" showing loan defaults are rising among major office landlords coast to coast with the rate of employees returning to the office plateauing at around half of the

prepandemic level. so what's the readthrough for the next ten years the u.s. will end the decade with a record ed 1.1 billion fee of vacant office space sam zell last week was on the show telling me something similar. he's not optimistic. listen >> i think the outlook there is pretty dire. companies like we work and similar companies, taking down four and five years of supply immediately so the numbers showed that, gee, everything was terrific but the reality was, we work wasn't filling the space so we just changed the definition of vacancy from the market to those companies but the net effect overall was oversupply >> he has a reputation of investing during times of discretion but sees more pain ahead and is not going there in

the office space part of the trigger is brookfield, the huge private equity and real estate developer defaulted on about $750 million in debt related to a double tower office building in l.a and we've seen similar stories in new york and l.a. in particular, and this is coming due now because some of these leases are coming. they're ten-year leases and they're coming due and the companies don't need the offices. >> normally you have real estate, barons come on and decry high rates he's talking about the reinvention of work in urban centers, that's the cause of the problem. >> rates they can deal with because they assume rates will come down and that will boost the prices and assets. when you talk structural issues like people not coming back to work, the tech layoffs are not helping. a big uk study about four-day workweek that's going very well, totally, to your point, redefines how we think of the office >> we're watching the market close to session lows.

hanging on by about 12 points. you know what i'm thinking about is over at bofa, unless you crack 4200 it's 3800 by march 8. we didn't get 4200 at this rate -- >> going south. >> we'll get there in a week or so >> i would be watching treasury yields look at the ten year bumping up. this was not supposed to happen. disinflation and weaker economy. guess what, it's not looking that simple. inflation is coming down a little, not as sharp as dramatic as the market anticipated. so that could be a big headwind and the fed has to do more and rates will go higher and we know what that does to stocks especially tech. >> how much more can you count on in the way of supply chain

cleansing? how much better can thatget? if it reverts to the other way or if energy rears its ugly head, if jeff kerry gets his hawkish call. >> it's demand that's more worrisome kind of inflation for the fed not driven by the supply chain or shortages but driven by strong demand. >> so nice to have you on the floor. we've had a blast. plus, the judge is in the house. let's get to "the half." all right, carl, thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to "the halftime report. i'm scott wapner from our new home at the new york stock exchange and front and center this hour the state of stocks are falling sharply, as you know rates are moving significantly higher the investment committee debating whether this early year rally is now over and where the reversal could take us joining me for the hour here at post 9 josh brown, stephanie link, joe terranova, shannon saccocia we are down by about 550 on the dow. the s&p