>> all right thank you. another busy day of earnings tomorrow, including nvidia after the bell. >> and particularly interested in commercial real estate. we have public storage coming up as well as we had costar report after the bell today all that mixes together. >> all right that does it for "overtime." >> "fast money" begins right now. ♪ >> on "fast," warning signs for wall street. stark outlooks from some of the biggest consumer names sending stocks plunging. the dow going negative for 2023. meantime, rates spiking higher the ten-year at the highest level since november within a whisper of the 4% mark what this means for your portfolio and why one top market watcher says he could be heading back to the october lows. bargain hunting for teslas the ev giants' cars prices have been slashed but is in enough to keep the buyers coming in?

what it means for the stock. later health care stocks riding their longest losing streak on record but could the sector be ready to turn things around we will dive into the charts to find out. i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money. courtney garcia, karen, dan, guy, look at us sitting here on set. >> this is beautiful. >> this is something you need a lazy susan. we could put stuff in the m schmiddle and spin it. >> we will put waters. >> water or coffee or gummy bears. >> please continue sorry about that. >> we start off with that markets sell-off the s&p 500 dropping 2%, the dow falling 700 posts. and the nasdaq seeing bigger losses down 2.5% yields across the board the two-year treasury the highest close since 2007 the moves coming after a couple of warnings from major

retailers. first home depot plunging 7% after missing on revenue for the first time since 2019. the company also saying sales growth this year will be flat. walmart getting weak guidance. even an posting a beat for the holiday quarter. inflation is meaningfully pressuring consumers, shares barely positive. so is corporate america signaling consumers are close to a breaking point >> i think that's right. we are seeing exactly that people are slowing down and vaccinations now matter in the retail space as well home depot was not -- quarter was the guidance i think scared loft people. i thought walmart was okay then dillard's, who a week ago is making an all-time high, down 17% on what was again a pretty sketch quarter it says never question consumers want to spend but are they in a position to spend? clearly no as rates go higher, as more disposable income is bled away with inflation, there is a

problem with the retailers who can't pass those costs. >> i felt like as the day went on people were more accepting of walmart thinking the outlook was conservative they got through the inventory issue. >> i thought walmart was pretty good i felt like they were in front of things. so to the inventory issue exactly. i think that they did talk about inflation. they talked about double-digit food inflation but i think they really had a handle on things i thought it was good. i think to the issue are they sandbag, they said as much, right? someone tried to get -- they gave ane enthat was yes, basically. i thought it was pretty good home depot different story. >> walmart traded great. especially, obviously, versus home depot closing at the lows it's interesting if you look at the day chart of walmart, gaap down a couple percentage, trading worse in the premarket and got a ramp and flatlined look at that that is pretty impressive that shows that there was some real buyers there and they are making the decision to pay almost 23 times low-single digit earnings

in sales growth that was kind of guided down towards that range versus a home depot that's getting creamed on 30% from the 2021 all-time highs trading at a market multiple which is interesting. the consumer, it's interesting inflation. we talk about this all the time here wage gains are moderating here, right, and it's interesting. while inflation has come in and a lot of the precious that affect consumers, they are starting to tick back up a little bit, right. so the savings rates going down, this could be the trickiest spot for the u.s. consumer when financial conditions now are getting much tighter especially with rates going higher. so to me i think it's really interesting to take each one of these retail reports and then think about them a bit holistically when they are in the rearview mirror. it may not paint a good picture for q2 and 3. >> when you listen to the commentary of the santa rosa, they were saying the consumer is okay

>> we saw this last year so much uncertainty ahead. the consumer isn't having a problem and i think when you are seeing something like a walmart they are guiding i think ultra-conservatively i think that's why it bounced so much there was a lot of positive there. you saw their groceries department is doing better than a lot of the competitors which means they are gaining market share. yes, it will affect their earnings right now because it's not -- the margins aren't as good for them. longer tem if they get people to stay if we don't have the recession that some people are expecting we have more money, the consumer is stronger, better for them, if we go into a recession more people trade to a walmart. so, yes they might be impacted on the short term but locker term they are well positioned. >> food companies talking about price increases like general mills, we heard it from pepsi quarter after quarter. there will be a queaze where they are raising prices but go to walmart and expect lower

prices >> i think we are there. they have been -- all these companies i said it a number of times, you want to know what real inflation is? listen to general mills when they air quotes organic growth that's code for we are passing on our costs to you. that's the real rate of inflation. pepsi same thing i think we are at the inflection point now where they are no longer able to pass it on to the consumer so they eat it and that affects their marketsermgs or w at a point if they can't eat it and they can't - >> make smaller packages. >> shrink-flation. >> right >> so, you know, if they can do it in a way you don't feel it, you have this sort of look and feel of the old size -- >> they put a lot of air in there. >> yeah. that's one way around it. >> but the more you yknow 16 ounce box of cheerios is now down to 13 ounces and i notice a myriad of different ways

>> how scared -- i mean, we saw walmart trade well but the rest of retail was depressed the entire session. >> that's a market story listen, you know, i think, you know, i'll speak for guy and myself, fighting the animal spirits like that work thundershower way into the market this year they were non-existent last year and didn't line up with the trends that we are seek economically and, you know, so to me i think the market was due for this i think we might see a multiday sort of thing. there is data the end of the week, consumer data, housing data, you know, and any sign of it being hot, you know what i mean, and any reads that the february jobs report is going to be hot the way the january -- 5%, you know, fed funds rate is here to stay, people, for a while and the fed's gonna have to follow through on that promise and that's the thing that ultimately will weigh on s&p 500 earnings and everything that we just talked about is also going to be hitting their margins. when you think about a lot of these companies as they exhaust ability to pass through these

costs to, you know, to consumers. so to me it's not a great environment. i am looking at the s&p, down 2% today, up 4% on the year i mean, listen, people, this was almost up 10%. feels like we will be unchanged pretty soon. >> it seems harder to take a message we are getting from walmart and home depot and others when the s&p is above 4,000 which is where we were before the open, right it's all where we are right now, guy. >> mm-hmm, when i say price is truth, it's not meant to be glib the only thing we can base decisions on in terms of trading is the price something is trading out. we would be having a different conversation if the s&p was t 3,400 level i think it's going to as opposed to 4,000 it's scare your at these levels because i think there is more of a downdraft on the downside. >> could i say something >> why not >> i got an email over the weekend. nice long holiday email. hey, how about trading the market that you have, not the one you want

you know what, man that's the dumbest comment i ever heard what about gretzky how about skating to where the puck is going, not where it is you know what i mean and like to me that's what we're kinda doing is kinda read the tea leafs, you know, guy's been doing this 48 years, i have been doing it 25 years. there is a lot of stuff you can glean. that rally, the first six weeks of this year was one the dumbest rallies i have seen in 25 years in the business and we will see what happens. >> yeah. one other interesting thing i thought about the earnings today was the billion dollars of increased labor costs that home depot talked about i am not surprised that it happened i am surprised it happened right now. i don't know i would have expected it before now thinking that maybe things were, i don't know, maybe the idea things would slow a little bit. that's interesting to me goes to the inflation question wage pressure is still there if you've got home depot out there increasing wages. >> right

all right. for more on today's big retail earnings former walmart u.s. ceo bill simmon bill, how do you read these warnings about the consumer? >> well, yeah, good afternoon. interesting day really and i thought your point you made about wage increases that home depot was talking about is really telling you look at home depot's report and walmart's report you see food inflation really high and companies having to respond by pushing more wages in. and those two pressures, inflation and wage increases, offset at the tight money policy that the fed is putting in place and on with we go. inflation, wage increase, inflation, wage increase. >> i want to talk to generally about retail but i want to get to your walmart specific take and i wonder if you think walmart was sandbagging with this full-year forecast, being overly conservative? >> they tend to do that.

and so it's -- would be my guess that they are probably going to do better than that. they tend to underpromise and overdeliver. i think that the thing -- especially on the top line i think the top line because of inflationar inflationary pressures on the food priz business will grow i think they have been struggling on operating income and that might be new york challenging. i think they will beat the numbers they put out. >> target had a couple of disasters over the last year, probably a few how important a quarter for them to explain and talk through the problems they have had on the inventory side of the ledger for almost a year now? >> yeah, that's what i'm anxious to see brian cornell has a good team over there they have been really struggling they don't have the velocity and traffic that's driven by that big food business that walmart has. so clearing out the inventory for them is going take more time and probably take a little bit more money so i'm curious to see how well they did there it's a challenge.

>> bill, seeing what rates are doing in terms of thinking about how consumers are dealing with higher debt burdens, for instance, inflation pressures in general in daily life, if you had your druthers, would you be investing at all in retail these days i guess that's my way of asking you how bad you think the consumer will get in the short term >> i think the consumer is resilient. always have been they find a way to get what they need and want. doesn't always look the way that us retailers think it should look the one that figures it out and gives it to them wins. right now i think walmart is doing that with their food business amazon is struggling they haven't figured it out. the world has changed and they haven't been able to change quickly enough somebody will figure it out and good investors can figure out which companies are going to to do that. >> bill, it's karen. target, so, just thinking about their mix versus walmart's mix, obviously, walmart food heavy, but they talked a little bit about apparel and some other

things that are a little higher margin being better. do you think that could lift target's results >> it could help target has a better, i think, apparel portfolio than walmart so if walmart showed a little bit of resilience, i think there is hope for target that would be one of the things i would be looking for on target's release target does with well in health and wellness and walmart reported decent numbers there, too. so maybe those two things will offset so hard lines shortfalls that they have. the challenge for target is their inventory. if they can't liquidate what they had like walmart did, it's going to be difficult for them >> i want to put aside walmart and target for a minute. i wonder if there is another retail position you have in your portfolio that you like right now. >> yeah. i'm probably on the retail sidelines until the smoke clears here myself. >> ah. okay so that was the answer to my question before, bill. you are playing coy. you are on the retail sidelines.

but of course you're in walmart stock i assume >> i am not. >> you are not >> no. >> okay. how long you have been out of walmart? >> you know, i have been in and out, but mostly out the last four, five years it's one of those things where i have a lot of confidence in the company and the management team there is terrific and they always do seem to find a way to grow and evolve, but when you are so personally and emotionally attached to somet something, i tend not to invest in them. i like them and care too much so i don't tend to put a lot of money there. >> bill, always great to see you. thank you. >> you bet >> bill simon. he is on the sidelines in retail. >> there is a few names. i think it was tim who had been a long time shareholder in nike and starbucks and talking about the moves those stocks had the last few months and i thought they were interesting when you consider the vaccinations they were raiding at and i liked

again again this question about home depot was, obviously, home depot specific and walmart traded well but the whole retail space traded weak today. i feel like the ones that are expensive, that ran ahead of the rally in general i think are vulnerable here. again especially the market will start discounting what will happen in q2 and q3 soon maybe today was the start of it. those two reports and i think the guidance in particular they kind of give cover to smaller resiles to do the same going forward. >> i don't think you can necessarily extrapolate this everybody. there have been retailers this earnings season that have proven resilience i think this comes down to brand strength because the consumer is harder to win over right now people have money but they are being very strategic where they are spending now i have to buy more groceries and less electronics and walmart benefits you i don't think this is bad for retail as a whole. >> tjx before the bell tomorrow all-time high a week ago, trade

it off today makes sense trading at 23 multiple is going to be -- i think that's a huge tell as to really what's going on in the consumer space this should be a perfect environment for them. coming up, a lot more. toll brothers and coinbase on the move details from the quarter and health care healing. could it be pointing to a strong prognosis for the group? t details when "fast money" returns. all across the country, people are working hard to build a better future. so we're hard at work, helping them achieve financial freedom. we're investing for our clients in the projects that power our economy. from the plains to the coasts, we help americans invest for their future. and help communities thrive.

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. welcome back to "fast money. shares of toll brothers higher after the big beat on earnings seeing revenues ahead of -- let's get to pippa stevens with the numbers. >> $1.70 per share in q1 which was 29 cents ahead of estimates. revenue exceeding expectations at $1.75 billion the company arefirmed the full-year guidance and said next signed contracts ahead of estimates but down 51% year over year the ceo saying, quote, since the start of the calendar year we have seen a marked increase in demand beyond normal seasonality as buyer confidence appears to be improving

that is much more optimistic than his commentary last quarter when he said buyers and many markets were on the sidelines. back to you. >> was he also including beyond the end of that quarter? i am wondering we saw mortgage rates go down. so people want to sign contracts but now mortgage rates are ticking back up? >> there wasn't a lot of commentary around those comments but the call does happen tomorrow morning so we will be listening for more on that. >> all right thanks pippa stevens. i think they put out 8 to $9 of earning which i think was pretty good. i always think it's hard to -- how can you estimate what will happen in this environment and yet they feel the need to. if that's the case, then not crazy expensive at all. >> this a very different housing cycle, i guess, certainly than the great financial crisis. >> these are higher price point homes. >> and they run their business

better gross margins up so they are doing a good job and you look through the numbers. it's pretty good it's not really -- and i think it's not a valuation story it's how well they are running and the backlog. the backlog is strong. so these stocks have held in relatively well and i can't believe i am about to say this, but toll brothers you could own here. >> yeah. and i think everybody has been waiting for this huge drop to happen in housing. i don't see that happening because there is a huge supply and demand issue a majority of housing is existing homes as mortgage rates are back to 7% nobody wants to sell and get into a new mortgage rate which means more people want new builds you are seeing home builds come down but when you are looking at permits for new builds did tick up you are seeing that demand going forward. i don't see that going away especially as rates stay high and that will benefit -- >> you know how it goes way? if unemployment is below 4%.

i am saying -- >> 4%? >> i am saying, they have to go higher. >> you know what i mean? so like we just the whole market, everything is just priced a no landing scenario and i guess that's the thing that, you know, just wait until the stock market is down on the year just wait until the what the multiple is going to look like on current s&p earnings less visibility, much less visibility in a couple of months. i mean, that's my point. we can talk about supply and demand and this and that we saw after the pandemic things got really weird and they reverted i think the housing thing is not done reverting. >> my argument against that, however, is we are in this period right now where you have everyone is assuming it will hit housing next, right, but i don't think you can assume it was the same housing market as in '08 and '09. they have better savings in hand i don't see this dire scenario, even if we go into recession, what if it's a smaller

recession? i don't think it will have a huge affect on the housing market like last time. i don't know if that's a safe assumption to be fair. >> let's get to another earnings alert on coinbase. shares turning higher after posting a revenue beat in a smaller than expected loss kate rooney with the conference call set to kick off in a few minutes. >> coinbase reporting a loss for the quarter trading volumes still very much under pressure as crypto prices slumped we saw that wave of high-profile bankruptcy cysys trading consumer and revenue down more than 70% from a year ago. retail trading volumes down even sharper with an 89% drop the cfo telling me on the phone that they are not seeing theme compression. that's a bear case for coinbase fees for retail trade did go up in the quarter and she says cryptoing markets conditions are rebounding in the current quarter as bitcoin prices recovered. she called it a stabilitilized period compared to where we are. it hasn't just fallen off a clip

cliff. we are seeing market volatility and market conditions. trading fees, guys, still make up more than half of net revenue. coinbase saw better than expected subscription and services revenue up 34% for the quarter and a boost from higher interest rates back to you. >> thank you. >> what do you think >> probably benefitted from the fraud and other exchanges that went under in q3, q4 i will say this. the company expected revenues for this year down 15% they were down 60% last year expected to do, i don't know, $3 billion maybe in revenue this year like kate just said, a lot of that comes fromfee compression that's happening there is no way around that. and you think about this companies going to lose $1.2 billion this year so i guess i wonder like what is the path to profitability for this model when you have the underlying asset so volatile and then you have all of this issue with regulatory costs are only

going up and then the idea of competition will come back at some point because everyone's gonna look at their march and say that's my opportunity. >> it's declining -- you will have declining year over year revenues next year probably 2 to$.5 billion. you are talking about the absurdity of this market coinbase went from 55 to 84 to 55 in the course of 2 1/2 weeks. this is not a small company. it's a $16 billion company stocks shouldn't trade that way. to me it's a no touch. people think that coinbase is the bank of the metaverse or something. >> you know, all of these things. >> yeah, well -- >> and - >> i'll be in my 90s, which is not that far away, by the time we get there >> all right a lot more "fast money" to come. >> health care on the mend it's been a rough few months for the group. could the sector be the right medicine for your portfolio?

the details next. plus, stocks selling off one stop strategist says there could be more pain to come we'll dig into today's market action you are watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times sque. 'rba rhtfter this.

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go. go lights. go big city lights. go spotlights. go stadium lights. emerson software helps clean energy become reliable electricity. go “good night." go boldly. emerson. money. the s&p etf down 4 plus percent since january. the chart master updating the health care call over the weekend pointing out the sector has knocked eight conservative weeks of declines for the first time ever. he says now is the time to, quote, play for a bounce so should you heed carter's

call karen, what do you think >> i am in it. so, yes, i think you should. i think that a day like today is a good place to start because it did well last year, defensive, not expensive. big dividend yield that is still true it was sort of left for dead while the go-go stocks and anything super levered didn't make money were in vogue i never should not have been in vogue. that's okay. i think still all of those things still exist and held up nicely in a difficult tape. >> i agree when you say it should have never not been in vogue everybody was optimistic and this year everybody jumped into high risk assets we kept saying you want to be weary of that rally. now you see that shift so now you are seeing a shift back towards things like health care i think a lot of the fundamentals remain strong merck, for example, spun off their lower margin businesses and they are just now going to be lean and mean and a lot of good pipeline looking forward. i would continue to play the

health care space. >> traded down to levels, i'm can with carter. eli lilly people look at correctly so 60 bucks off the all-time high if you go back to 2019 when it was $150 stock we have seen moves of this magnitude the downside six or seven times. it's not out of the ordinary and as people guide into courtney's point some high flyers got out of health care will circle back real fast into health care. >> when you are looking at a more defensive market for sure it's going to become more in vogue as we're seeing rates go higher if we are actually in higher for longer, then that is the time i would imagine for things like a health care to shine. >> i hope so i think so these multiples, i mean, are really well under the mark now maybe you could say different kind you have business and i think we will see some m&a as well. >> which could be a good thing or bad thing. >> it could. >> right >> yes. >> that's always the case.

>> no question but with that said, i'll go back to the lure of "fast money" -- the lore of "fast money" when johnson & johnson bought pfizer's consumer products business for like $16 billion and the price tag was 11.35, 12. what are they thinking turned out to be the bargain of a century for a company like j&j. deals that seem overpriced wind up working well in this space. >> gilead's >> they have a balance sheet the ceo of gilead, anybody here cares? >> the show? >> georgetown graduate, class of 1986, daniel o'day d-day we called him. coming up, stocks dropping hard junk bonds is catching one of our trader's eyes. and tesla slashing prices. it has other automakers scrambling to compete. more "fast money" right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets worst day of 2023 much the dow shedding almost 700 points home depot responsible for nearly 150 points of that drop the s&p sinking 2% the nasdaq falling 2.5%. yields moving higher with a two-year over 4.7% and the ten-year nearly a 4% and take a look at the hyg the lowest level of the year. karen, you wept short. >> yes i have been short for a while. for a long time. and i think part of the move today is rates i am short this and the lqd, bank loans i think that we haven't seen a credit cycle where the spreads start to really widen. that hasn't happened yet and i think it could we are also seeing debt that's going to be coming due and they will be able to refinance it probably fine but a lot higher rates. so i think that adds to balance sheet stress to me it seems like a decent

hedge against hinds thinks going berzerk. >> black rom today was overweight, short-term treasuries, underweight, moving lower weighting on investment grade. short-term when you are talking about yields where we are, you know, approaching 5%, with no risk to the principal, that just -- >> we have richard fisher on last week. his point about credit being the big concern. that has not broken, which is a good thing karen is spot on and the 70.40 was low on the hyg in september so 73 handle although it seems close, it's light years away because it doesn't trade a one-point move is big. but you start making moves like this on a consistent basis, then you have to get concerned. i am with karen. i think it goes lower from here. >> we are getting closer to a recession in the coming months and that october low not really the low.

chief market strategist tony dwyer. great to see you so what kind of low are you bracing for? >> why don't we give it the data so oyou opened the show with the two-year yield the highest of the cycle. we looked at since it's been at 500, since 1957, the s&p 500 has never made the low of a cycle when it's down more than 19% before the two-year made its peak so with the two-year making the peak of the cycle so far, that tells us that october low wasn't the low. >> okay. so then in the notes you say that the higher the two-year yield goes the more likely we are headed into a recession. so does that mean -- you see that in the cards at this point? so a recession adds what to the markets? >> i do. i think the soft landing scenario was because you couldn't disprove the data you don't go from super fast to a recession in a tick. so it takes time to get there.

so what we're basing our recession call on is the percentage of the yield kevs that are inverted almost 87% all you need is 55% of them to be inverted to a recession even the soft landings of the 1966, 1995, and 2016 the leading economic indicators were nowhere near as weak as they are now any time the leis have been here you have gone into recession lastly, not just the money supply, but the bank lending standards have tightened to a level and the loan demand for c and i loans at a level that have been associated with recession so to me the data is there for a recession. we just haven't had enough time to get there yet. >> this is, obviously, backward looking if you have the data here do you have any sense of like when stock market in a bear market usually bottom in and around a recession again, this recession call by a lot of strategists and some

investors have been pushed out a little bit a lot of people said a couple weeks ago we are in a new bull market and the bear is over. i am curious if you are right about the recession maybe in the back half of 2023, how does the stock market usually bottom before rankings or in them >> it's a great question they never bottomed before a recession. so the mean, the median number of weeks from the beginning of the recession to the s&p 500 low is 23 1/2 weeks. that's why this whole call has been about the recession and why it's so important to use that data i mentioned earlier we know that when the two-year is making a peak, the s&p never made the low until after the two-year peaks that means the october low isn't it we know that market has never bottomed before the recession began. if i can, i want to be super clear here we are over a year into this bear market. i want to attack the next low. you don't get armageddon negative now go back to the october low and i want to attack it because it

will be when bad finally bad news will become bad news and that's typically when you make that recession-based low. >> and what takes us out then, tony because i think, well, i mean, you know we work a great deal. what takes us out -- like what are you going to attack on the aggressive side on the long side >> it's going to be the early cycle names of financials, at the cyclical names the economically sensitive names. it's interesting the soft landing scenario to me is one of the -- it's not the best-case scenario because we don't have to guess. we know exactly what's going to happen if you are in a soft land pg inflation is going to remain elevated the fed is going to have to continue to tighten and the market is -- and risk is going to get hit we don't have to guess that's what happened over the last two weeks so i think what we need is unfortunately to go into a recession to the point where the fed will lower rates enough that it kickstarts a credit cycle to

karen's point, not now when we are about to enter a potential negative credit cycle. >> how does the fed pivoting if at all factor into this sort of recessionary overlay a lot of strategists -- i don't want to say a lot, some are banking on some market -- banking on a pivot, some sort of cutting, you know, later on this year, maybe early next year. does that play into this at all? does that change your outlook for when the market bottom >> it doesn't because when i look back the only time i find after a tightening cycle where the fed pivoted and it was the low was in 1995. the last rate hike happened i believe in february of '95 the market was already ripping and it kept going straight up for the year i think it was a 34% year. so when you look at that, it really comes down to you have got to -- you've got to go have the unemployment rate pick up. and you know you are in a recession historically when the

unemployment rate is a half a percent for an average of three months above the low so if we get a 3.9% unemployment rate, we know we are in a recession. we know we are in recession, we should be about to make the low and that creates the opportunity for a real sustainable bull market and a change in that money. the problem is money it's not just the thought of money. there is the money system is shut down. >> tony, great to see you. thanks >> great to see you. thanks, guys. >> tony dwyer. some more bullish people might have argued that the markets had looked through this, that the october low was pricing in in the recession to come, because it's a forward-looking mechanism. did you buy that >> i think parts of the market will to continue to do all right. i do think it's hard because we are looking at talking soft landing or hard landing and the big crux is what's gonna happen with unemployment and i still do

find it sttough to see where we get to the higher unemployment because today we saw home depot came out and nobody liked their earnings but they are hiring more people and increasing wages. so that you have a lot of that happening in the industry. yes, the big tech firms laying off but plenty of parts of the country can't hire enough people so i don't know what the catalyst is to get there to bring unemployment enough to bring us to the recession to bring us to a harder landing yes, it's a possibility. i am not convinced it's happening. >> karen >> i agree to me the employment thing is a big -- used to be -- i mean, .4 was below. you know, middle 4s mabel. s maybe i would think the economy could withstand some meaningful movement in employment that actually would - >> no. it hurts the fed story it makes it so much harder for them it basically means that the feds

funds has a -- i think the stock market could endure at the valuations it's at the other thing, i mean -- >> why more unemployment remains depressed. >> oh, is that what you are saying >> yes. >> yeah. >> i think it makes the fed's job hard i know you feel the same way i think it's just, you know, one of those things -- and let's be frank. we talked about chipotle, they are hiring 15,000 workers. they can fire them so quickly and will fire quickly if there is a recession to me i think that with unemployment if we get hot readings and have unemployment below 3.5% it makes the fed's job that much harder -- >> i agree if unemployment rises -- >> but yeah, she is staying it's going to stay low forever, right? isn't that what you are saying you think we can actually have a soft or no landing because unemployment is not going up >> you are right, it makes the fed's job hardert. we will probably have higher interest rates for longer and that's where you need to look at

the markets. larger duration at set assets wb under pressure. >> three weeks ago it was 4.9 or something. i mean, the change in psychology, which is probably what the markets need, is amazingly fast. >> and it's exactly right. exactly what they need it's sort of like the come-to-jesus moment where they realize, wait a second, we are not out of this situation as fast as we want to i am with you. i don't think unemployment is going to move -- they, the federal reserve, i think they want a five handle they would never say that. that's what they need. they are not going to get t that's the problem wage growth continues. inflation is a problem you are going to see it in the numbers later this week and they are trying to combat something that everybody seems to think is an easy fix. it's not that easy which is why rates will stay higher for longer and people are just starting to come to that realizization now. >> coming up, the ev price wars are heating up what will tesla's price cuts mean for the competition? we wl inyothe adilbrg u tre

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welcome back to "fast money. tesla's chief exist auto is getting cheaper. the ev company's model 3 is currently selling for nearly

$5,000 less than the average new car in the united states according to analysis from bloomberg. that is after two recent price cuts and before the $7,500 ev tax credit put in place by the biden administration in january. shares of tesla were down more than 5% today, back below 200 bucks a share. that's really dish mean, that's amazing to think about, it's cheaper than the average u.s. car. >> really interesting to think now, let's talk about the stock. here comes the i hate guy portion of the show, which i'm fine that's the whole show. no, the viewing audience the move in tesla, 100% move in the course of time is remarkable we said 225 is a logical place to stall we topped out in october then we cratered what's a 50% trace 165 that makes sense and we could have another conversation there i missed after earnings. i thought he pulled the ripcord into earnings. that was $60 or so ago w that

said, you've got to trade where it is now and i think it goes lower from here. >> i don't know about the stock. the strategy of -- to me, i don't know whether this is a demand issue if it is, i think that it's a really, really aggressive move for them look, we are the frontrunner by far here we have got to get our either our repeat customers or new customers to be in the tesla family and not lose that because maybe we'll never get it back. and so even if it's -- even if they don't need to do it, i think it's an aggressive move from a business standpoint which i would probably do. >> is it about demand? you asked rhetorically i am going to answer that they shut down the shanghai plant. 50% of their production is coming from there. why did they cut prices late last year? >> at a certain point doesn't it matter it's about demand if you are going to track the customer in and boost - >> but it's a margin story. >> over the customer - >> maybe

if this is a march, gross margin 22% down from 25.5%. what does it do? it trades at $250,000 per car that they have sold. that's what the market cap is to date if that growth slows, you know where i stand here i think that doing all of this, this is a move in face of all the competition that's coming online and the competition is finally here that's been a story or a pilar of the bear case so maybe this is just to counteract that. coming up, down today but on a tear this year nvidia with earnings tomorrow. what are the options markets predicting the action next. much more "fast money" in two. k meets bold, new thinking, ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪

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we try to fight inflation. our purpose is you've called out several times is to save people money and help them live better. to do that we try to find ways to bring them a value and private brand plays a big role whether in food or general merchandise like apparel >> that was walmart ceo doug mcmillon talking with jim cramer catch "mad money" top the hour. another big week of earnings

on deck. nvidia up tomorrow mike has the action. >> yeah, nvidia a little over 7% after they report earnings in line with moves over the past eight quarters bearish sentiment actually outpaced the bullish sentiment today. the most active contracts were the 200 strike that expire the end of this week almost 20 of those trade an average $4 a contract. buyers of those puts are, obviously, betting that the stock is going to fall after earnings. >> what do you think >> trades at 17.5 times revenue, close to 350 times next year's number it rallied since the fall. they have to pull a rabbit out of the hat remember frosty the snowman? the guy that pulled the rabbit out of the hat >> did that happen >> frosty the snowman, yeah. >> wrong time of the year. with that said, i don't know if they have a rabbit and they don't have a hat

i think the stock goes lower this valuations in this environment i am hard pressed -- >> environment is tough. >> big narrative that they are the benefit of all this chatgpt stuff. that fever is kind of broken for now. i think maybe some of that excitement comes out of the stock after the print. >> thanks, mike. tune into the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, final trades. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

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final trade time courtney. >> toll brothers i think this housing trade i think this is a lot nor pes mix. this could be a good play here. >> karen >> yes we talked about it a lot today this frenzy part of the market run is over, i want to be where carter is. xlb. >> dan >> nvidia. i wouldn't chase this one. i think you will see it back towards the december highs. >> remember "coming to america," the scene at "mad money," when

eddie murphy said in the face. that's what courtney did she didn't acknowledge it. it was beautiful. >> i think devon comes out bottomed last week worth a look. >> thanks for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my miegs is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you some money my job is not just to entertain but put things in prospective is call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. today, the