probably cut gdp growth permanently over the next ten years by almost 7% we're going to talk about a lot of things. bullard, i can't wait for it yesterday was brutal, the worst day of the year. home depot ended down 20 points. walmart ended up trading higher, believe it or not, came all the way back here's what i want to know we can ask bullard what happened with home depot. you've got the down down -- they don't like it when the dow goes up because of the wealth effect. so that's playing in your hands, and it was the first time in over a decade that home depot is projecting, you know, this kind of same-store sales performance, which is not good. see, there's walmart, which almost closed up so the consumer is being af affected at this point

the market was affected. >> that's why the good news, bad news, bad news, bad news, good news. >> can they feel a little bit better have you seen rents? >> the best story in the newspaper -- >> is the golf story >> no, no. the george santos chatbot story. >> did you see how he took down that balloon one shot he's amazing >> he is amazing should we do the markets again we sort of did the markets. >> we can look at them today there is green, but as we mentioned yesterday. >> dow up 20, nasdaq up 11, and the s&p up just a little over a point. as joe was mentioning, it was the worst day of the year in the major indices, the dow falling by 2%.

the s&p 500 also falling by 2% the naz damage falling by 2.5% we'll see whether jim bullard likes that take a look at treasury yields as we try to figure it out the 2-year at 4.869. get yourself some tax-free muni. >> my person. >> your person. >> tried to get me to do that. i think -- he gave me like a taxable equivalent yield of 4.85.1% or something like that. >> the 5% is taxable though. >> no. after tax, that's what you would end up with. >> tell me about that product. what product is that that's a decent product. is that's a good product. >> it's at 3.5%. i want the muni -- >> no, no, i dowant the tax-fre

muni bond paying 5%. >> no, that's what i said. it's the equivalent. >> 3.5% tax free. >> i want what you want. >> sure. then you would never look at the dow our s&p for the next 30 years and be very happy. you know you've got to get back to the 198 os to get there. >> i told you triple tax-free at 13% when i was there we're watching shares of bitcoin. was trying to go over 25,000 there's coinbase the company reported a

246 a share. revenue beat estimates, but the user base continued to shrink. monthly transacting uhers. trading volume fell 5% from the quarter. ceo brian armstrong spoke about the volatility in the crypto markets. >> the narrative in crypto tends to flip every two years. 's either irrational is exuberance or despair. that also means there's opportunities for builders who are focused in the space like coinbase if o you take where reare now, you have to look over at least a prior cycle. you can't look at what happened. >> he'll join us next week crypto prices, take a look

crypto was trying to go above 25,000 it was early in the morning holding in at about 24/7 it has -- it was down a couple of percentage, down 23.7, something like that. so you have to say with a risk off day yesterday, bitcoin has held up relatively better than even equityies. >> it depends what your window is what else were you going to say? >> i was going to say how excited i am to talk to brian armstrong next week. it's going to be great to understand what's going on. >> i wonder if you tell him some of the twitter comments that we get that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme and it'sworth zero because it's not backed by anything he has a weird company if that's really true, isn't it?

i mean it's based on a beanie baby or net rock do you still think it's possible the day comes when these things are worth zero >> for me, i think that's hard to believe. >> somewhere between 0 and 5,000 in. >> it could be more, it could be less i don't know. bitcoin has to have more it could be imbued with it could be worth more and be worth 5 cents and that would be fine for the whole system to work so i don't know. >> there are things -- i haven't finished it, but there are

vol volumes, wait represents, what are the five fundamental things when you work doing one thing and somebody else works doing another thing. there's reasons why gold has stored value because it's scare. >> in the end it's all theoretical. >> it is, but so is life so is everything. >> it's just a confidence game. >> then everything's a confidence game. everything is based off the greater fool game. >> this is a heavy conversation. >> no, it's not.

le >> serious value know that. >> that's not the greater fool theory it's utilitarian, ilts's real. >> but a physical dollar bill might be. >> yes we'll keep moving. shares of automaker stellantis are up we started earlying so we have time the company recorded record full-year results. global battery and electric vehicle prices hiked meantime starbucks' ceo howard schultz speaking to jim cramer on "mad money." here's what he had to say about inflation. >> i'm not worryinged about inflation going forward. i might be the only ceo in america who feels like we'll have a soft landing and are not

worried about what the world is saying about rerecession our business is going great around the world we've had inflation, 5% or so. >> we have a new line of olive oil-infused drinks set to debut this spring. it's called oliato with oat milk latte and olive oil topped with golden mill thac will be topped with olive oil as well this will be the most significant thing done in decades. i don't know if you've seen the differential reviews do you remember bullet coffee? they were taking coffee and putting a little in it

some say it's fabulous some say you could taste it. others say you couldn't taste it at all someone added it added a certain tech ter to the whole thing to the cove. >> >>, no, no. >> but it's good fat and some people like it, and apparently happened with howard, he was in sicily and got into the habit of having a spoonful, i believe, of olive oil a day. there are people who do that then decided to try to figure out a way to emergency the two in the form of coffee. >> on face value, it doesn't seem like something i'd add to coffee in fact, i would rather -- we

use pam if possible. don't you -- instead of olive oil. it's excess iss, virgin t god gather >> the question is five years from now are we going to be talking about everybody drinking coffee with olive oil? >> i would drink really coca-cola but i don't need that 150 cal rars i'm on the treadmill and burn off 180 calories there's no way. >> it's the people buying frappuccinos. >> uld would by lessle.

>> are you talking about the cholesterol. it's not trans fats, but it's still calories. >> calories in, calories out >> it's no going to work for me iechlts not transform active, and i think horde is barking up the wrong neck of the woods. we'll see. coming up, meetings from the last fed meeting are due this afternoon, but before that, we're going to talk strategy ahead of the release, and then we'll have an exclusive interview, someone who might know and be able too give us a bit ol' color. st. louis president jim bullard and former vice president mike pence is going to join us reight hero on "squawk box" on cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairdifference.com

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welcome back here's a look at the plea market futures after the worst performance yesterday. and on today ee agenda, the minutes from the fed's last policy meeting this afternoon. joining us now is equity portfolio manager at jpmorgan asset management and marian bartless, chief investment strategist at sanctuary wealth mary ann, we had mike on he focused on all the looming problems this stockmarket might encounter in the last six to nine months and made a really compelling test for not only a retest of the old lows but new lows somewhere in the 3000 and 3500 on the s&p. do you adhere to that viewpoint? >> well, that came out in december we said the bull was already

running. with we have pockets of the market reaching all-time heise you have some bifurcation in the market but, joe, no, we no longer believe we're going to test the lows the internals of the market improved greatly on the rally in january and earlier this month we still say that we can have volatility as long as the fed is raising rates, but we think the market is going to find some footing here, and it would actually be a good market between now and summer. >> jack, we had jeremy siegel and his s&p in terms of what the s&p would earn was a far cry i think it was a 21 or 2200, and then we had mike saying it could be 1850 or worse segal said it may not even be as bad as 2200, and mike said it might be worse than 1850 we have no idea in terms of

visibility or what kind of multiple to put on those earnings some of you can get to 3000 easily doing math or get to perhaps fair value from where it is right now. >> i guess looking forward it comes pack to this question where do we think it settles out. right now we have a lot more pressure coming from the ten 10eer rates and into the future, not just '23, but in '24,ism proving earnings into '25 once we get stand and back to a line of sight they're bouncing around more on psychology rather than the fundamentals of earnings >> do you think home depot yesterday, jack, was that -- were there storm clouds in that

report, do you think for the fed, it would be good news, i guess, if the consumer is feeling less robust does that help them do 25 instead of 50? >> on the one hand you have margin pressure from the commitment to a billion dollar increase and compensation for employees, and it's not necessarily something the fed wants to hear in terms on when you start thing about employment inflation tending to be stickier inflation. i know we've got better news on rents starting to come down on some of the forward looking surveys coming out of zillo. but that isn't what the fed looks at, which tends to be more backward moving. home depot silts in the issue of the housing market, which has had a substantial contraction as mortgage rates have gone from 2%

to 7% a few months ago you started to see some stabilization, and this is more managing by anecdote i had a ride this weekend with an uber driver i said, what did you do? he said, i was in the mortgage business now he's driving an uber he's not unemployed, but his employment is down right now so he had to find something else. it keeps the employment statistics looking relatively positive and finds ways to keep consumption up but when you find ways of looking for certain pockets, they're going to be under a bit more pressure than others. home depot sits more or less somewhat more in the crosshairs of being a housing expense. >> a lot of people have said we never had that really violent downward move that people look for to make a real bottom. the vix yesterday perked all

little bit does that concern you or with what you own now, if we had another 5% down or another 150% down, does that matter to you with the names that you buy? maybe you just buy here, a firsthand you do get it on sale even further, you buy more are you timing things? >> well, joe, what we're really seeing, i think the big question is where is the long-term trend in the market? we still believe we're in a secular bull market. meaning the market will have the ability to make new hires, whether it's this year or into next year, so we're telling clients to be opportunistic. we're seeing really good value pockets within the market where we think over the next six to 12 plus months, you're going to have a really nice return. so we're not shying away from the market we're being selective in what we want to own. >> what is the best -- quickly your three best areas? >> we like the material sector we like industrials.

we're a little bit more cautious in tech, but we really like semiconductors >> all right, jack last word? you have three favorite areas? >> i actually -- we find opportunity in health care and energy in particular you know, both of the sectors offer a combination of cheapness. they offer cash returns to investors, and in the case of health care we have the prospect of demographic growth driving demands. if you look at energy, i don't have a demographic story, but i have a reopening skpoirs particularly to the world and particularly to china where you have a consumer, what has been basically cooped up for three years having the chance to finally travel and you have some supply constraints coming out of a major oil exporter actually cutting supply in a fit of peak in an attempt to punish the west i do think there winds up being that underpitting and cash returns making it easier to take a longer-term perspective.

>> great jack caffrey and mary ann bartless see you again soon. when we come back, we're going to talk about this one there's a backlash taking place at amazon, this time over the company's return-to-work policy. we've got details of the company's battle on the incoming slack channel. you don't want to miss this. and two big interviews still to come. at 7:00 a.m., an exclusive and important interview with st. louis president james bullard. he'll give a hint at which way the fed may be headed next at 8:00 former vice president mike pence will be joining us righhet re on the set to talk about so many different issues "squawk box" coming right back science proves quality sleep is vital to your mental, emotional, and physical health. and we know 80% of couples sleep too hot or too cold.

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welcome back to "squawk box. amazon veeving backlash from employees last week. they were told to return back to the office at least three days a week beginning may 1st, and this

is causing a backlash, joe a group of tech workers created a slack channel and presented a petition to push back on the agenda 5,000 employees signed that petition as of last night. staffers posted saying they were caught off guard and were frustrated they would have to find child care or care for the aging or move to be closer to the office meaning they may have moved away from the office >> it was a long pandemic, i guess i'm realizing that, poo that people developed new habits if they had no child care or elder care >> so this is the thing we all don't appreciate which is i think during the pandemic, a lot of people started working from home by the way, they're saving money. in a way they're being paid more money. that's the way you have to think about it. >> that's awesome to say, i don't pay for gas anymore.

>> think about it. you come to new york city every day. if you're going to have lunch, you can't get away with buying a sandwich in this town for less than 15 bucks. then there's the kwas, the subway, the train, all of it adds up. it does. >> i hate to do that, but you've got to go to work. people work. >> i don't disagree, but they realize -- here's the measure. the question -- i'm not say wing way or the other, but i'm saying in the end, if you're the employer or the employee, you have to think, how much productivity you're getting more from having them in the office versus how much is the sandwich, gas, subway, taxi, all that cost. >> people work for like a half hour and go off for the other half hour. >> speak for yourself. we're here. >> and there's a lot of people that don't have the luxury like we do, the backbone of the country that -- >> you can't do that.

>> no. you want the bridges fixed do you want construction do you want anything -- do you want the country moving forward at all or do you want a bunch of people sitting at home, you know. >> coming up, backlash we're going to talk to the florida cfcfo. through february we're celebrating black heritage here's roberts ref kin, compass founder and cfo. >> i know i'm only here because black leaders created an opportunity for me and my generation i remember my early 20s on wall street a trail blazer, they were the

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welcome back to "squawk box. investsing with at least 14 bills being processed in 20 different states florida has been on the forefront and our next guest will explain why i want to welcome in florida cfo jimmy patronis welcome. >> thank you for having me bottom line, i carry about the people the n the restaurant business of florida. if they're ordering fish, i serve them salads, they're going to take their money and go somewhere else

that's what my dad always said if you want to get their attention, get in their pocket i get my arms around the job that i got and i care about the bottom line, and the bottom line, i'm seeing dollars being siphoned off, i'm seeing individuals that are using the state of florida's money for a social agenda. guys, do what you want to do with your own money, run for office, but i just care about returns, and i'm not seeing that. >> you pulled money. >> i run the treasury for the state. that's different from the retirement fund. i pulled $2 billion out. look, at the end of the day, it wasn't a political move. it's become one. >> that's what i was going to ask you hochl u much do you think is political do you genuinely believe those who are investsing are looking at esg as a thing? by the way, there are some who think esg is going to help their returns. we could obviously have a great

debate about that, but do you say to those people, they're just bad investors >> no, look, at the end of the day in my casing blackrock was performing at the beginning of the pack we took a piece and managed it ounce. >> here's the blackrock thing i don't get. you may disagree with me on this. >> probably. >> if they're in the middle of the pack, it's not -- i think there's a lot of people that don't like the letters that larry writes at the beginning of every year i get -- you may just disagree with the letter or what he's espousing, but i don't think it's actually -- if you go and look at the votes blackrock makes, you can say always hypocritical, this or that, sure, but in the actual investments on behalf of the clients, it's not clear to me that the votes somehow equate to something else, and that's why i think some people look at this

and say this seems kind of political. >> it's very simple. if the performance isn't there, you move your money. at the end of the day -- >> here's my question. the nine people you move your money to, they all outperform blackrock? >> yes. >> that's fair. >> you heard us talk off camera. vice pres vice president pence wrote a piece on this exactly that with we are -- u.s. corporations while they're preaching here domestically to stop, you know, with esg, preaching to stop fossil fuel production, they're full bore in china, which is ten times the polluter we are right now. so the fossil fuel jobs are over there. they're developing all these projects in china, full bore, and blackrock doesn't have a word to say about nchina. >> it's hypocritical

>> hypocrite or not, it should have nothing to do with -- >> performance >> let's just talk about the performance of what's happening. the reason why this seems so political, and i ee give you an example. i don't know if you saw this story. a fascinating story about how so many of the republican states that are doing what you're talking about are taking lots of donations from vanguard and blackrock. they're not saying this is so hypocritical, let me send the money back, i can't deal with you. they're saying, please send the money, i want your money you sue this whether it's -- i don't think hip caypocritical or not matter. you look at them as having used their influence potentially inappropriately to influence the outcomes of these companies for social issues, right

you've seen them they've done that. >> sure. >> for years they said, this is outrageous this is crazy. these people are making political statements and then you talk about hypocritical what are you doing >> florida law, if you're in the bond business, i can't even take a check from you so you can take that off the table as a genesis for my decision. >> we talked quickly about that. paris accord, european -- europeans are ordering african nations that have great resources to not develop. >> we can have a conversation about climate change and whether you believe it or not. >> i'm just saying, you need to keep living without these natural resources? you can't have the lifestyle that europe has? >> everyone's looking at this as

one guy's a hypocrite. you're governor desantis. >> everybody's a hypocrite. >> maybe that's the end of the segment. everyone's a hit crick you look at disney cancel culture what happened? politically he didn't like what disney said, so you think they were trying to cancel certain people and he decides to cancel them so i'm just saying the whole thing is cuckoo for cocoa puffs. >> at the end of the day for disney, look -- the disney that was structured 50 years ago is not the disney it is right now different times. >> the impetus to do it was political at the time. >> i think they brought themselves to light that they had self-governance and people didn't like what they were doing

with self-governance if you bring attention to yourself, people are going to bring you questions. >> are you going to come back here and answer more questions >> i would love to. >> i've been watching him since 1995. >> my deepest apologies. >> that's cool thank you. appreciate it. have i gotten any better >> i think so. i just love the banter >> we do too coming up, two big interviews at 7:00 an exclusive with st. louis fed president jim bullard and at 8:00 former vice president mike pence is going to join us on set. i think i talked him into having short sleeves. we're going to get to work 92% still active? seems high.

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box. i'm dominic chu. time for this month's sectornomics with consumers and the consumer discretionary sector so far it appears discretionary companies will be outpacing

broader based s&p 500 with revenue growth but showing a bigger drop in terms of earnings to share it's a dynamic rop certain parts of discretionary are seeing stronger consumer demand check out royal caribbean during a recent earnings release. ceo jason liberty says we continue to see robust demand from financially healthy, highly engaged consumers. meanwhile they say they continue to be challenged with regard to general merchandise categories as well as inventory reductions at retail. later we'll get updates on garmin, etsy, tjx, and ebay with more on the health aspect of the consumer and check this out three of the top five s&p

companies trading to their premium are all on consumer discretionary. head over to my twitter feed by the way, keep it right here when "ua b" sqwkoxreturns, we've got a major investment in soccer that story coming up next. keep it right here. >> announcer: sectornomics is sponsored by sector spdr etfs. ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family...

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adidas renewing its partner somebody with major league soccer the extension is reportedly adidas' biggest investment in north american soccer and comes day before the start of the 28th season joining us for an interview is don garber, and rubepert campbe, president of north america adidas we have somebody at cnbc reporting that it was $830 million and that was versus $700 million. that's almost a 20% increase. >> yeah. >> like all sports, things are worth more now than they were. >> and always, and the longest standing relationship in the history of the league. we couldn't be more excited about our partnership with rupert and adidas.

this is unprecedented. this is every team, all of our youth clubs, all the way through mls, pro, minor league projects rupert has been a terrific partner. we couldn't be more excited about this 830 million bucks, not coming from us, coming from cnbc, but that's a big deal for major league soccer. >> not confirming, but it is a big deal. >> as don just said, we're delighted, absolutely delighted to be partnering with the mls. soccer is in our dna as a brand. when we get to 2026, we'll have been 30 years partnership with the mls. we know that soccer is the fastest growing sport in the united states, and it transcends borders, it transcends languages, it transcends cultures it unites people soccer is important to us and the partnership with mls is as well. >> for adidas, in the last year -- last five years, sneakermakers have to think of a

lot of things they didn't have to think of in the past, don't they >> yeah. >> i mean, would you move out of china to distinguish yourself from nike or not out of -- but can you emphasize, look, we're not over there there is risk to being in china right now. how do you distinguish yourself, how do you beat nike, how do you beat your other competitors? >> so, for us, we're here to talk about the mls and the contract extension today it is really important for us. we're proud for the partnership that we have we want to make sure we connect with our communities we want to make sure we connect closer to the fans so the contract and the mls extension is a major thing i'm here to talk about today, not really anything else. >> can i talk about the growth of soccer. we saw it just with the world cup and it is outrageous no discussion about whether -- the world cup is now bigger than the super bowl on a global basis, right >> without a doubt. >> without a doubt i don't know where you think --

where do you stack rank the olympics now within that >> well, the world cup is bigger than it all. >> so the question, though, is five years from now, where do you see mls in terms of in the context of all of this >> the world cup will be here in 2026 mexico, canada, the united states our league is 29 teams, 29 starts just this weekend, st. louis with a brand-new stadium downtown by the way, owned by the founders of enterprise rent-a-car, rebuilding the entire city downtown by 2026, we'll have 30 teams when you think about the rocket fuel of the world cup, andrew, it is an opportunity for us to take this sport and embed it throughout communities in our country, and in canada >> when you tell investors right now, for example, investing in new teams or in previous teams what this league looks like in five years from now, what does the investor deck look like for mls right now? >> today, we just had our first billion dollar valuation, our

team, los angeles, the average team value is almost $600 million, and, you know, that's tripled over the last decade and when you think about what the world cup will do -- this is the biggest sporting event in the history -- >> sponsorship deals you think are creating those valuations or is that tv licensing because the other question about tv is whether these numbers are going to hold up -- >> we just have done a new deal with apple apple is a global partnership with us. so, sponsorship revenue of near a billion dollars over a period of time, lots of ticket revenue,lets of local sponsorship, getting the largest company in the world to give us first global digital partnership, every game on a device, so if we're in kansas city, new york, beijing, you can watch a game, that's the pitch deck, andrew when you got a partnership like this, you know, it takes that into another level. >> i got a hard one. can i ask a hard one you're not going to want to answer, i don't think --

>> you can only talk about adidas. >> i'm talking to don. >> okay. >> what did you think about the kanye situation, how they handled it, and the prospect -- >> you're asking the soccer guy. the adidas guy -- >> no, no. >> the adidas -- >> what do you think of kanye? >> here's the thing, what is the prospect that adidas tries to bring kanye back and would that be acceptable to you >> i think what rupert said is right, we're here to talk about an unbelievable partnership. but i'll tell you this, andrew, this company is wicked smart rupert coming in, having run the business over in europe, coming here to the united states, thinking about how to take a company that is so embedded in the culture of our sport, so i have great confidence. i have confidence in rupert, confidence in the new leadership over in germany. so i -- >> if kanye came back, would you feel the same way? >> i would not answer that until i have it deal with that

>> i just love you i cannot believe that's how you got back to this >> let's talk about the jerseys. let's talk about these incredible -- what we have done, with the partnership -- >> good idea >> -- we have not just done a blanket set of jersey. each jersey is beet cing createn being made by the communities they're with this is the seattle sounders. >> we have this up bruce lee inspired jersey to celebrate 50 years since his death. nashville, nashville jersey here, incredible, johnny cash-inspired jersey made all of these jerseys into -- >> and men in black. >> made all the jerseys are rooted in the community. i think the future is super bright for the mls and i think the future is super bright for adidas. >> gentlemen, thank you. >> we made it with -- we made

it >> you can't use your hands. >> goalkeeper. >> goalkeeper. >> your goalie gloves. >> all right >> these are for you, by the way. >> are they? very kind of you >> on the other side of this break, we're going to talk about the federal reserve and what they may or may not do next. st. louis fed president jim bullard will join us coming up right after this we all work differently now. so cdw helped us deploy mac, supercharged by apple silicon. ♪♪ built-in security protects me from malware and forgotten passwords. i've got enough battery life to get me halfway around the globe. and lower overall costs leave more money in our budget. for more practical furniture? this was supposed to be hip. no. can you help me up? with mac, configured by cdw, a solution that works for everyone isn't just possible, it's powerful.

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good morning the dow turning negative for the year as investors await the federal reserve's latest meeting minutes and more insight into the central bank's future hiking agenda it is all happening right now. we're going to be hearing from st. louis fed president james bullard in just a couple of minutes from now on what could be a market moving interview plus, veteran executive maggie wilderotter on managing a criss is like the one we have sn with norfolk southern as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the

nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen with andrew ross sorkin, steve liesman joining us on set the lease maniacs are happy. he's bringing us a very special interview with the president, james bullard, president of st. louis, a vice president later. you all -- we were headlining you first. >> well -- >> rightly so. rightly so we'll speak to him in a second the dow is below the dow is down for the year that's a staggering fact because january was so good. >> yeah. >> maybe that will make the fed happy. hopefully. u.s. equity futures -- >> right >> that's my first question. no, no, it's good, you're right. mind meld. it's okay. >> great minds futures today are just barely in the red. in fact, it is mixed the nasdaq is actually up. we'll look at treasuries, almost -- treasuries are somehow listening to you guys, jim they're finally the differences

aren't that significant anymore. >> that's my second question thanks, joe. >> $ 3.95, and the equity marke yesterday perked up. take a look at oil we get that below 70, would that help >> it is one of the questions. >> and bitcoin, at one point below 24,000 it is a risk off environment we find ourself in as of yesterday. but it is managing to hold above 24,000 we want to get right to our big interview. steve liesman is here. >> oh, my goodness >> steve >> oh, yeah. >> good morning. >> good morning, joe let's get to james bullard jim, joe kind of did a little curtain raise on what i want to ask, which is the market bounced 700 points yesterday but more importantly, bonds what a month for bonds yields are up 60 basis points on the two-year, something like that on the ten.

does that make you happy >> make me happy i don't know >> to see yields rising, stocks falling. >> i think -- i think one thing that has happened is that the news has just been that the u.s. economy is stronger than what we previously thought and you certainly see that in the blowout jobs report, unemployment ticking down, not up at a 50-year low. job openings two to one compared to workers searching for work, other indexes, the labor market, very, very strong, claims still very low so i just think you have a very strong labor market, combined with more momentum coming out of the second half of 2022 than we previously thought so that adds up to markets wanting to price in a tougher road ahead for inflation,

disinflation in 2023 and i think that's basically the repricing that's going on right here >> are you repricing as well among the reasons why you became a note recently was your graph that showed a range of 5% to 7% for an upper range for the fed funds rate is that still where you're at in terms of the possibility -- i know these were equations and thought exercises you did, but they haven't turned out to be totally theoretical. >> yeah, i think the 5%, i think we are going to have to get north of 5%. right now i'm still at 5 3/8 we're going back to eighths. >> wow >> 5 3/8. >> that's fine 7 -- >> let's hear it. >> 5 3/8 we have a little ways to go here i argued that, hey, let's get to

where we want to go and from there we can see how the data comes in let's hope we get disinflation in 2023. right now, it came in hotter than we thought. >> i don't think -- we don't -- we're not asking if you're happy, you're sad or joyous or depressed. we don't care about it w we're wondering whether that indicated yesterday maybe you're making some progress in the the fed in what you're trying to do. number one, you probably don't like the wealth effect of higher stock prices we talked about that many times. maybe you're starting to see the consumer not quite as frothy as he was -- home depot -- >> walmart , consumers are trading down and they're benefiting that's what i heard from walmart. that sounds like a disinflationary process. i take that as a good sign because that's how -- >> you are happy >> that's how the disinflation is going to occur. those firms that are too

nonchalant about their price increases will lose market share and they're going to possibly forever possibly go out of business. >> i think our problem -- not our problem. every morning we are looking and trying to say is the bad news bad news or is the bad news good news and it is all like a psychological what are you -- it is really -- we're all trying to channel whatever is in your brain and you and jay powell and everybody else so when we see bad news like that, which is ostensibly bad news, is it actually good news >> walmart fourth quarter was good, right? just to be clear >> but in terms of guidance -- >> their outlook -- >> or the home depot piece or -- >> go through the list. >> that's why you get paid the big bucks. we're trying to make good policy for the economy as a whole i think that means get inflation down in 2023, let's get this down, put this problem behind us, get back on the bounce

growth path. >> when you see layoffs in silicon valley, for example, headlines -- >> i just described the labor market that is one of the best in the post war era. >> right >> silicon valley hired a bunch of people and then laid off some, but not compared to the -- >> you didn't have to try to have, you know, orchestrate unemployment rising to get where you want to get with inflation. >> i'm not tin that camp i think we can get disinflation with a strong labor market, but we have to be credible in our policy and we'll have to react as the data comes in. >> do you ever feel like you could become a supply sider? do you ever feel like i wish we had less regulation, i wish we did more energy development, i wish we did all these things to work on the supply side instead of trying to work demand i wouldn't want to run a company -- >> i love supply side, of

course it is great stuff. >> are you seeing any progress >> you know, i think we're still in the low productivity growth regime, which means we haven't really broken out of that. you have all this technology that you would think is going to lead to higher productivity, let's hope that happens going forward. big productivity boom would help us a lot, but i'm not sure it is there yet. >> jim, you talked about just being a year to get in front of inflation and get inflation under control. sounds like you're a little bit at odds with the center of the committee in the sense that you are still in the front end loading part of the rate hike cycle, which is you want to do more now, you said you wanted to do 50 at the last meeting. and you're considering 50 at the upcoming meeting what goes into that decision in your opinion >> yeah, i think that, you know, it has become popular to say let's slow down and feel our way to the -- to where we need to be but we still haven't gotten to

the point where the committee put the so-called terminal rate, i don't think you should call it a terminal rate, but get to that level and then feel your way around and see what you need to do so that the next move -- you'll know when you're there when the next move could be up or down. right now we have got trajectory, markets are pricing upward movement. so we're evidently not at the level that would be the right level for the situation. >> so, we have a terminal rate right now of 533, which i guess you think is about right but then they're showing some tweaking toward the end of the year of rate cuts and even more rate cuts next year. >> is that today i thought they pushed out the rate cuts until next year, no? >> the -- if you put up the fed rate hike outlook, guys, you'll see this is the way the market is priced right now, 533 for august '23 rate and 515 for year end.

so there is one rate cut in there. so, bottom line is do you think financial markets have this about right or do you think they still have a ways to go to get where you're thinking about where rates need to be >> yeah, i mean, i've said that the 5 3/8 would be a good number to shoot for that would be good are for the current situation and then from there we could react to the data i don't know what going to happen in the second half. i think markets have overpriced recession in the second half of 2022 and overpriced the recession first half of 2023 maybe they're overpricing the chances of recession in the second half 2023 got china coming on board, you got stronger europe than we thought. it kind of seems like the u.s. economy might be more resilient than markets thought six or eight weeks ago. >> given the government spends money and sets a tax regime and figures all that stuff out, but the fed was under some criticism

for maybe enabling things by keeping rates so low for a few years. but now, for whatever reason, republicans, democrats, for whatever reason, we're at 32 trillion total debt that's higher. that's 120% of gdp rates are going up you know that that means for interest expenses. barely got money to spend on anything else, which will probably hurt gdp and no one will talk about -- the vice president, former vice president will be on, we're going to ask the same questions of him, but do you have any solutions? i know it is not your -- you can't solve these things, but how worried are you about permanently affecting our gdp growth by having everything go out the door at interest expense. >> interest expense is rising, that is something to watch not as high as it has been historically i think the biggest problem with the federal budget is that you really got the two big gorillas

in there, defense spending and entitlements and that doesn't leave much for, you know, too much else. so if you -- and why do the debt blow up, well, we had a pandemic, if there was ever a time to borrow and do some stuff, it makes some sense you do it then but then you do have to get your fiscal house in order in the medium term and long-term. >> and china and russia, but we're going to cut defense spending now >> doesn't look like it. >> and then both parties, you know, pointing at each other about entitlement reform it is almost like -- if you can even imply that one or the other parties is talking about changing anything on -- they're going to change themselves, social security and medicare, they're not going to be around it is going to change itself what the outlays are something has to be done. >> a third rail of politics in the u.s. for a long time, yeah. >> we can't let you go without getting yo t ting your sense ofe

outlook for this year. you said the market is overpricing the chance of recession. all of this matters relative to the federal budget if we have good growth, we have good tax revenue if we don't, we have bad tax revenue. >> which market? the bond market? >> my question, the stock market or the bond market that is overpricing the chance of -- >> everything is the same today, aren't we? >> where are these recession predictions coming from? is that your question? here's what i think. i think people have models they say funds rate or the policy rate has gone up dramatically, therefore there is going to be a recession. i think you should interpret that cautiously that kind of thing, because the first 250 basis points we started at such a low level, so we started near zero, so the first 250 basis points, that was not restrictive monetary policy. that was just getting back to neutral. so it is only since then that we have come up, we have come up

and so i think there is kind of some double counting in there about how big the policy move has really been because some of that was just a swing back to neutral because we were in the pandemic so we had -- >> you have no recession built in for this year >> i put a moderately slow growth, the last time we did this and probably this time too, moderately slow growth scenario, with inflation declining >> what did -- what would an economy that required 7%,we be ? the high end of the possible range? it wouldn't come this year, but that would mean that, i mean, if we don't have a recession, and it doesn't even slow, that would indicate maybe we need to go to 7? >> i think mostly depends on the inflation trajectory and if the inflation continues to come down, i think we'll be fine.

our risk right now is that inflation doesn't come down or reaccelerate and then what do we do we are going to have to move and react in that environment and if inflation doesn't start to come down, you know, you risk this replay of the 1970s, where you had 15 years where you're trying to battle the inflation. >> by your own account -- >> you don't want to get into that that's why -- let's be sharp now. let's get inflation under control in 2023. >> by your own account -- >> it is not time to fight inflation because the labor market is so strong. >> by your own account, though, the economy has not yet given the long and variable -- they have not yet felt the brunt of the rate hikes you had, so why wouldn't -- >> what about housing? >> so you think -- >> housing is the most interesting sector. >> i'm not arguing i'm just asking you. do you feel like -- so you hit, like, 2, 2.5 in august, and

since then a restrictive policy. is it in the economy now or is it yet to come if it is yet to come, doesn't that argue for being more cautious >> i think this is the age of forward guidance the large and variable legs argument doesn't make as much sense as it made decades ago when milton freeman made it. you're saying ahead of time, here's what we're going to do, get ready, we're going to adjust, and i think frankly i think financial markets did a pretty good job of adjusting and we didn't get financial crisis or anything like that because people were -- we were credible and people saw, okay, we're going to have to move to take care of this inflation problem and they adjusted appropriately. >> jim, you're also reducing the balance sheet at quite a decent clip $95 billion a month. you have rate hikes in the economy or trying to hit the economy. some reports this morning about some foreclosures, bankruptcies in the commercial real estate market are you worried something could potentially break in the financial system that would cause you or force you to reverse policy >> well, we do watch this very

carefully. and we're sensitive to this. but if you look at the st. louis fed's financial stress index, which is designed to detect this kind of thing, it is still at a very low level right now i don't think we have financial stress but we'll always keep an eye on it >> what -- >> and commercial real estate is also being affected by work from home and -- >> okay. how did we get here with inflation in your view was it too much fiscal spending that we did? $8 trillion in two years was it supply chain problems and reopening after the pandemic was it the putin price hike and oil prices what was it? all of the above all of the above >> phone a friend. >> phone a friend. >> lifeline. >> i'm trying to figure out how engrained it is. if it is just supply chain, it is going to dissipate. >> have i told you my war story? >> okay. >> what you can do, just step back for a moment, and when you

see inflation around the world across history, it is often associated with wars, and world war i, world war ii. think of the pandemic as a war, global fight against the virus, and so what happens in a war the government spends a lot without asking too many questions about the future taxes, and the monetary authority is asked it keep interest rates low to help the war effort, that usually produces inflation, that happened this time then to get out of that the fiscal policy has to switch back to the prewar regime which i think has happened, because now you have divided government and the monetary guys have to switch back and start fighting the inflation. i think that's also happened i think we have a good shot, if you believe that story we have a good shot at beating inflation in 2023. >> that was really good. >> that was really good.

>> really great to have you here too. you always answer the call, your call thank you. >> when you come on, do you are a conversation with jay? did jay call you or did he call and you said i'm coming on, i want to talk this through. >> we did not do that. >> did he ask for an autograph from andrew or anything? a signed copy of too big to fail >> a good job of having regular communication around with the committee ahead of the meeting but we don't talk ahead. >> what about taking this new job, by the way? >> i think she'll do a great job. she's very talented. >> we were talking about this, which is the more important job right now inthe world, i would think seeing where she was was actually more important. >> it is a tough job, the nec, and i know she'll do a good job with it. but you got the mix in there of foreign policy and economics and politics and a lot of politics

so she'll be very good >> have you met austin a few times? >> yeah, i know austin >> yeah. >> did he complain that i didn't buy him his tacos yet? >> he didn't mention it. >> i know you think that's top of mind for him. >> he's been quietly silent since he got this big job. which is good. good for me. >> jim bullard, thank you, sir. >> all right thank you very much. >> fabulous interview. >> thank you for helping >> lease maniacs are -- >> you did more. >> i was just talking to andrew. >> coming up, we're going to talk, board room leadership, tech layoffs and recession concerns with docusign chair maggie wilderotter and then a special interview with mike pence at the table, that interview starts at the top of the 8:00 a.m. hour we have so much coming up. don't go anywhere. time now for today's aflac trivia question. in honor of national margarita

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aflac trivia question. in honor of national margarita day, in what year was jimmy buffett's hit song "margar "margaritaville" released? the answer, 1977 toll brothers saying it is seeing signs of improved demand and buyer confidence is on the upswing. also watching shares of coinbase take a look. the company reported a loss of $2.46 per share. that wasn't as bad as the $2.55 loss that analysts expected, revenue beating estimates, but the user base continues to shrink monthly transactions fell to 8.3 million in the fourth quarter. that's down from 8.5 million in the prior quarter. brian armstrong will be with us, the ceo of coinbase, next week starbucks plans to launch a line of -- we were talking about this all morning -- this one

doesn't have it in it, though, it is an olive oil infused drink. set to debut in italy this week. and then in the u.s. in the spring it is called oleoto. beverages will include an oat milk latte with virgin olive oil. they are saying this will be most significant transformative thing we have done in decades. >> i think it is the same amount of virgin offlive oil but it is extra virgin olive oil. >> it is not extra extra virgin olive oil. >> this came from his trips to sicily -- >> i guess there is -- there is health benefits. >> health benefits, but there is the health benefit of having it, but then the 120 calories that -- >> for you it would be okay. not with eight doughnuts, probably. >> i haven't had some doughnuts

in a while president biden promising the u.s. wouldn't waver in its support of ukraine >> president biden today will meet with the leaders of nine countries bordering russia nato's eastern flank as it is called, as mr. biden reinforces allied support for ukraine and defiantly vows that russia will not declare victory. >> one year into this war, putin month no longer doubts the strength of ot other coalition, but he doubts our conviction, our staying power. there should be no doubt our support for ukraine will not waiver, nato will not be divided and we will not tire. >> that speech in front of tens of thousands in warsaw, creating a duelling split screen with vladimir putin speaking just hours earlier in his state of the nation address

they displayed duelling narratives about the origins of the war, but agreed on one thing, that it would continue for the long haul. russia's testing of an intercontinental ballistic missile and its suspension of a post cold war nuclear deal deepening the chasm between the u.s. and taxis of russia and china. >> appetites of the autocrat cannot be appeased they must be opposed autocrats only understand one word no no, no >> the kremlin says china's top diplomat will meet with president putin today after meeting with russia's top national security and foreign policy officials yesterday the wall street journal reports mr. putin will extend an invitation for china's xi jinping to come to moscow. beijing has billed itself as something of a mediator in a

ukraine conflict, circulating a so-called peace plan to provide an off ramp for talks, but western allies are increasingly skeptical. nato's secretary-general called that proposal quite vague. andrew >> kayla tausche, in washington, d.c. this morning, appreciate that report very, very much. we're going to keep our eyes on all of this and see how it -- market doesn't seem to be impacted by this. >> not yet saw the headline in the journal, putin and -- >> which one >> the nuclear, the most recent -- >> right. >> nuclear pact, we're not going to pay attention i don't know where it all leads. kind of scares me. i never thought we would have a global pandemic. >> do you think the market is supposed to -- how do you price this in? >> the world can only end once, so until -- black swans are out there all the time >> right >> and, i mean, you either -- art cashin, others said it, if

it is going to happen, the least of our worries is our 401(k) probably that's depressing to even talk about. still to come, the dow coming off its worst day of the year, dropping 700 points. futures right now bouncing back a little bit that's some of the best levels of the day bullard said some -- i don't know, i felt a little better, didn't you, after talking -- >> alittle bit, sure >> later, former vice president mike pence joins us in the next hour for an interview that you don't want to miss stay tuned you're watching "squawk box"nd th icn iss bc a for businesses of all sizes, there are a lot of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business.

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welcome back to "squawk box. let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's look at the market movers. >> earnings mover out of stilantis, european automaker behind chrysler, dodge, fiat, alpha romeo among others it is up around 140,000 shares of volume per u.s.-listed shares it was driven in part by a 41% jump in sales of electric vehicles and its ability to raise prices for those cars. they also announced a share

buyback program worth 1.5 billion euros and a 4.2 billion euro dividend payout to shareholders as well also on the earnings front, shares of palo alto networks up 9% to 10% now. 80,000 shares of premarket volume for palo alto the cybersecurity company reported results after yesterday's close. it was an earnings beat and revenue beat as well and a better current quarter forecast than analysts anticipated. those shares up 9.5% we'll end with a check on shares of walmart, which are down fractionally now premarket after outperforming in yesterday's down session for the broader market on the heels of a better than expected earnings report. america's largest traditional retailer andbiggest private employer is named a top pick by analysts over at oppenheimer who keep their outperform rating at $160 price target. they think the strength of the underlying business is stronger than they previously thought with bigger gains in grocery and more discipline on the capital

spending front so, those shares again down fractionally after being up fractionally in yesterday's session, joe back over to you. >> quite a comeback yesterday for walmart. >> huge. >> as home depot continued to -- the shares continued to slide even further >> i think it is going to be one of those situations where -- it depends what your view is. you can accentuate the positive or the negative. you had the home depot results yesterday, dow component with more weighting than walmart shares have in the dow but walmart may be a bigger proxy for the consumer than home depot shares. >> farther, we can discuss it further. the shares fell farther. let's talk markets and rate hikes, with the managing partner and portfolio manager for d.c. l.a. and cnbc contributor. what was yesterday i know you like stocks on any given day based on the individual fundamentals, but

what do you make of what happened yesterday home depot >> i think home depot was definitely part of it. i think investors are saying what is going on, where is the consumer spending their money? are they continuing to spend their money in the economy we're seeing pockets of strength and pockets of weakness. the strength is staples area, the services area. where we're really seeing is in the goods area, especially with consumers spending so much money in the pandemic on their homes and upgrading that you're going to see less demand there i think it is going to be an economy where investors have to be very selective. you got rising interest rates, 18 times multiples and companies that sometimes are trading not on cash flow being careful in this environment. i think there is so much negativity, you know, you were just talking about all the things that could happen and we had that. we had three corrections of 20%

in last four years so we're getting kind of this volatility and i think that's where people like us get a little bit excited that we get some opportunities and some high quality companies. >> do you have an s&p estimate for this year or what do you think is the s&p earns what do you think s&p companies earn in 2023 >> you know, i think when you break it down, you're going to see 200s for the estimate. and if you put a multiple of 16 on that, you're looking at high 3,000s, somewhere in there the market is going to start looking forward too, going to say when do we bottom out on our earnings and there is so much negativity with all the strategists out there. i think there is a much more opportunity, if you're a long-term investor and, you know, have capital in the market that you're going to invest in three to five years, not just for the next six months. i think the opportunities are there. too much negativity at this point because everybody can just

point to everything that can go wrong and we had that case for the last couple of years. >> so you don't -- it is a cyclical bear. you think -- stocks go up over time, we don't need -- we haven't paid it forward so much that it takes us five years to work it all -- >> no. >> no? >> absolutely. i agree with you on that one what i would say is, look, you know, a lot of companies did well during the pandemic we had a lot of free money, we all know that. but now it is coming back to essentials the playbook is different from the last ten years it is much more of an early 2000 playbook what companies are going to do well in a higher interest rate for a longer period and the consumer is still stronger too wages are up you have to look to see whether the opportunity is going to be not just by the overall market, but i do think it doesn't mean we paid it forward there is opportunities there in healthcare, staples, select text, there are going to be bottoms up pickings here for companies that will do well in an environment that was very different for the last five to

ten years. >> do you own walmart or would you buy it what do you think of that report >> we don't own walmart. we own a lot of other things in staples like nestle, coke, you know, constellation brands all those things sell into walmart. what walmart is saying is the consumer is still buying and paying a premium for higher margin products for -- they're paying a premium for companies that they want to own, so you got a combination of positive and where the consumer is going to be spending i do like the walmart story, a little too expensive for our blood at this point. >> so, if you had to say in the next five -- before the end of the year, what kind of range do you see on the -- i know, again, that's not what you do, but 3,000 possible is 3300 on the -- is 3500 possible do you think somewhere between,

you know, 37 and maybe 43, something like that? what do you feel happens a lot of people think we need to -- i'm more in the -- flush it out again, i know, i know i think if you get what's happening with the fed raising rates, what is happening with the global economy, of course black swan, things excluded. i think you're seeing a range of 3700, 3800 we go back to the october levels there is going to be opportunities there and there are going to be some really good companies that are going to be thrown out when the market comes down, but i think a year, 18 months from now we are going to be higher, just because things are not as bad as people expect. we're raising rates because things are too good. we're not in this environment where what do we do to get the economy jump started so, yes, are we going to overshoot potentially? but that just gives us the opportunity to invest or buy a better company. >> we're in a position with the labor market is strong that we can make tackle inflation

without really hurting the labor market, we can tackle it, get it under control and maybe not cause a really hard landing, fingers crossed. have they ever done that i don't know a tough needle to thread sirat, good to have you on thank you. >> thank you >> okay. we got some cautious guidance this earnings season. coming up, we're going to talk about what is happening in the markets right now and we'll also talk about board room leadership tech layoffs and recession concerns with docusign chair maggie wilderotter and an interview with former vice president mike pence as well that starts at the top of the 8:00 a.m. hour so many questions for him. get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast, follow on your favorite podcast app and listen anytime this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean?

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welcome back to "squawk box. the futures have seen some of the best levels of the day, compared to the downdrafts yesterday of 700 points. we're getting back 80 points on the dow and the s&p 500 indicated up maybe 12, nasdaq 57 and change andrew >> okay. moments ago intel reaffirming its first quarter guidance, announcing it is cutting its div lend to best position the company for longer term value. the tech company planning to temporarily cut compensation and

rewards programs for employees and executives some other news this morning, twitter planning to limit a method of two factor authentication to paid subscribers. the company says starting march 20th, only twitter blue subscribers will be able to use the secure log-in method that requires users to supplement passwords with a code sent via text message the policy shift expected to save twitter money because it pays to send the sms messages. nonpaying twitter users can still use two-factor authentication, but they have to use an authenticator app instead of the text code the ceo elon musk raised concerns about fraudulent account flooding the systems with authentication messages accused phone companies of scamming twitter out of $60 million per year in fake authentication texts so a little harder to keep your account safe, joe. but i will help you during the commercial break get the authentication app so you can

stay -- unless you would like to pay $8.99 for you blue check mark >> you're, like, talking over my head, like one of those commercials. where do i got to get the app from where do i get the app on the download? >> download it off of twitter. i have to see how they're sending it it is interesting -- they're trying to save money, that's what they're effectively doing, at the same time trying to create an incentive for you to use their paid service to pay for the two-factor authentication you can still have -- there is still -- it is still available, excuse me, just in a different way. >> i mean, i joined ta, twitteraholics anonymous i need a program to keep me from -- >> from twitter. >> from responding. >> oh. >> i need a program. you do it well you somehow -- i go on the wagon, and then i slip

>> i don't know why you do that. >> i don't know why. >> discipline. discipline. >> because they think -- i think they take a lot of liberties, they think they can -- complete strangers. i just want to -- look, you are not allowed to do that i'm not going to just turn the other cheek. i'm going to turn the other cheek from now on. >> turn the other cheek. >> i am. i need meetings and 12 steps got to make amends to a lot of people. >> what you should do then is recommend -- that could be a side business for elon musk. >> ta. >> have the service and then also offer another service. >> i'm joe k., like or i'm squawk joe. >> just send him a tweet he's looking for new business models there is a lot of money to be made there. >> we're going to talk board room leadership, tech layoffs and recession concerns with docusign chair maggie wilderotter. at the top of the hour, former vice president mike pence will be our special guest, right here on set at the nasdaq market

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my commitment to the citizens of east palestine is the same as my commitment to the

employees of norfolk southern. we're going to do what's right we're going to be here today we're going to be here tomorrow. we're going tore here a year from now we're going to be here five years from now we're going to do what's right for this community, help this community thrive. >> reporter: this is your promise you'll be here on the ground to ensure that happens? >> yes >> and epa has taken action against the company, requiring them to conduct and pay for all the cleanup efforts. joining us now to speak more on managing a crisis, chair of docusign, and on the board of lyft, and costco, what else? we were talking about the whole portfolio of life. >> i'm also on the private

boards of legends hospitality, shoutout for sonoma, boyer therapeutics, and i am very blessed. >> she's got to look down. >> i have a list well, you can never forget somebody. >> i want to talk to you about managing crisis. that's how we led into this, but also see that's touch so many constituents, in terms of this crisis i think a lot of. >> what do you tell someone like mr. shaw >> i think well to look at crisis as a part of life, not something that doesn't happen. you have to be prepared.

things are very unpredictable. you have to say focused on community indicating with employ uses, customers, and pivot ing. >> i can't grade it because i'm not in that business, but everybody goes to work every day to do a good job, and sometimes things go wrong. as a ceo, you have to try to predict when things can go wrong and how, and try to mitigate it. >> i mean, across the board, some of our -- some of the government people should have been there faster, too >> everybody should have been there faster. >> going at the right time, what does that mean what's the right time? >> you have to be prepared for whatever could go wrong.

>> this probably could have been prevented. >> are you of the view you're in a good place or bad place? >> i think we're correcting. i think they're also -- almost two decades. >> and what this has done is make sure this doing it the right way.

>> also, what the market has done >> and then you're on the board of lyft, which is competing -- trying -- it seems like something that is shifted or changed. >> no, i think the battles go up and down, sometimes you win, sometimes you don't, i have to revisit why you have the right to win as a board member, i love lyft i did before i even went on the board. >> what has happened here, in your mind? >> well, scale matters, so when you have scale, it's a lot more forgiving.

>> also, you have businesses that have not operated at scale. >> and that's one of the things trying to change that paradigm and be quicker, in terms of how you respond. and the two co-founders are very open to the feedback, do you think there's a questions, i'm so curious we're going to own the mobility piece of it we talk about scale, that that

is the appropriate path? >> you have choices in life. lyft said we want to be the best in rideshare, that also includes bikes and scooters, so modal transportation is really where they're focused. that's not to say they couldn't pivot like uber has done, but we feel like we have top great -- >> i want to talk to her so long they're playing music, we're running out of time i want to talk about docusign. >> we call it docu-love. >> i can't do it any other time. >> i don't want to put a stamp on an envelope >> we got to go. i come back. >> will. mike pence, the former vice

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♪ good morning futures in the groan, one day after stocks had the worst session of the year. we've seen a pickup in sentiment this morning, though maybe due to our interview at least it was after our interview. we'll see. we'll see. jim bullock. the potential of artificial intelligence gaming we'll speak with the ceo of roblox and the economy and debt ceiling, the start of the 2024 race for the white house we have former vice president mike pence as our special guest right here on set. he's in squawk garb, because we're going to solve some problems, no jackets the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now

good morning i'm andrew ross sorkin becky is off today, but we do have the former vice president at the table we're just coming off a big newsmaking interview with jim bullard, talking about hiking rates to where members have previously said they want to be. >> get to that level, and then feel your way around and see what you need to do, so that the next move, you'll know when you're there, the next move could be up or downed. >> and take a look at futures.

>> we asked him whether he talk to jay powell before he came on. he said he did not the two-year looking at 4.668, joe. >> i think sometimes the other fed sometimes give an alternate view >> we're starting with form z mike pence, former vice president of the united states you think about what would be fair game to talk about? it's like this most of it we're going to stay in our lane. >> does that sound good? >> that's why we love "squawk box. good to see you. >> and no blazer, he's playing

along with you. >> it's a working breakfast, a working squawk breakfast. >> debt ceiling front and center >> i understand both sides democrats voted for clean raising, why not do that now, what the president wants but i can see when speaker mccarthy says, when do we get a chance to focus on these huge debt issues we have? now is the time to do it, or we'll get another omnibus bill in december and who is right >> the constitution requires we maintain the full faith and credit of the united states, the congress will figure it out, but i credit speaker mccarthy that we ought to make a down payment on fiscal discipline the issue is spending. as i travel all across this

country, families are hurting. after the democrat congress spent $is.9 trillion in unnecessary covid spending, another trillion nearly at the end of that democrat majority. so i'm glad to get the majority says we need to use in debt ceiling to start us back in the direction of fiscal discipline we all know where the real issue is, in terms of long-term debt for the united states. while i respect the speaker's commitment to take social security and medicare off the table for the debt ceiling negotiations, we've got to put them on the table in the long term right now president biden's policy is insolvency we're looking at a debt crisis in this country over the next 25 years that is driven by entitlements nobody in washington, d.c. wants

to talk about it >> wall he do about entitlements >> first and foremost, you have to explain what's going on >> it's unsustainable. >> i understand that but for you, on entitlements, what's on the table? >> i think it begins with education, begins with having the american people understand that it doesn't stop at $32 trillion when you look at the deficits that are projected over the next 30 years, social security and medicare and other areas, it's about another $120 trillion. i mean, literally -- i just had two granddaughters in two days our family is incredibly blessed. looking down at those little girls, i think of their 30th year, we could have $150 trillion in debt in this

country. if we wait to deal with it -- >> would you -- social security -- when you get down to the brass tacks, that's the complicated part what's on the table? >> jim bullard just called it the third rail you have never seen two parties run for it more quickly than -- all president biden has to say is, and then all of a sudden the republicans get scared, no, no, we never would that's not helping anyone. there's an election every two years. >> what you need is presidential leadership the fact is that president biden is abdicating his opportunity to provide real leadership and say, first -- i'm not dodging it at all. there's lots of good ideas to solve this that are common sense, don't impact people at

the point of the need, that don't affect anybody who will retire in the next 25 years. just lie -- like ronald reagan and tip o'neill, they made is -- there is thing you can do, personal savings account, allowing younger americans to get a higher return. to say, you know, during the time you were in office and president trump was in office with you, this was not something that was either accomplished or even attempted why? >> well, when we came into office we had just gone through the slowest economic recovery since the great depression our first objective was to get

the economy moving again, cutting back taxes, rolling back inflation, it all worked negotiated the largest trade deal in american history in u.s./mexico/canada agreement then history showed up history showed up in the form of covid. i want to stipulate i don't think we did nearly enough the next president of the united states has to square with the american people and take decisive and visionary steps. >> i think $8 trillion in deficits in four years with trump, and another $ 8 trillion to go around there's enough blame to go around. >> but $5 trillion of that was covid. that's why you have -- >> for both administrations. >> as i said before, history shows up you've got to have the financial foundation --

>> this is how the u.s. can prevent a debt spiral. this struck me this is a bipartisan problem here the u.s. is in in this sorry state for three main reasons -- democrats spend money when they don't raise taxes. republicans cut taxes when they don't cut spending, which you guys didn't. >> hold on. >> correct >> well, look, we didn't cut spending at a significant level, but revenue still went up. >> okay. and then the next point, the aging population exerts steady upward pressure. there's no way to get around these things, be neither -- they're both feckless, it seems like in addressing these things for the american people. >> use whatever terms you want to use what we have is an establishment in washington, d.c. that is walking away from this problem,

but they're whistling past the graveyard, and we're going to drop bush i want to put that number out there again i don't think it's widely known. if be stay on the trajectory based on cbo, reasonable projections of revenues, spending, deficits we could have $150 trillion national debt in 30 years at that point every choice is bad. >> i don't disagree with you the question is, how do you do it >> you either have to double payroll taxes or cut benefits to people that really need it now we can bring about common-sense reforms that would never impact anybody at the point of the need and phase in the kind of changes -- can i just say, you know who had the best idea about social security reform >> no, who. >> franklin delano roosevelt you go back, at the time that

fdr signed social security into law. he said this will begin as a public program then it will eventually become a public and private program, but eventually a great way to build a private annuity. he actually said social security would eventually give way to a private annuity that we facilitate that. we've never done it. it's remained a public program, funded by payroll taxes. the fact we didn't introduce this idea when president bush introduced it, i think was a profound missed opportunity. back then we had money in the trust fund, in ways we don't know still it's an idea i believe whose time will come, but andrew, i'm telling you we sit people down at the table, people of goodwill, you're straight with the american people, we can figure it out. >> we're going to one of your favorites. >> what's that i know -- three letters.

three letters. >> >> you wade in on espn and some of the -- you know, the best laid plans, we know where good intentions lead in your view, in terms of esg? >> it was a year ago spring i wade in with the "wall street journal" on this issue we picked up that, while -- while you say the battle with certain famous companies, particularly in florida advancing political correctness, that actually through this environmental social governance investing, by the big firms here in washington s. lit really the leftward policies would be advanced we called them out, called on states around the country, but to take steps to protect their public pension funds, this is an

incredibly important fight we're going to the air waves in arizona, and in montana, with our policy group. >> what do you think of desantis did with disney in florida there's two ways to look at it one is to say disney spoke out on a political or social issue, but then careerly there was retribution political against them i think it's empirical what happened he said as much when he did it so people talk about cancel culture, some people say, well, you know, they're cancelling on one side the other side says, desantis used his political power to cancel them. >> i would say two things. number one, i fully supported florida's initiative to protect kids and parental rights i was just in iowa last week where there's literal real rally a school will allow a student to get a transition plan without

parent at notice or approval i fully support what florida did about protecting kids understand the third grade. disney stepped into the fray, they lost, but -- >> but then they -- >> -- taxing authority that was beyond the scope of what i as a conservative limited-government republican would be prepared to do. >> do you at this point think -- where do you place the blame for oil prices being as high as they are? esg had something to do with that, i think, but a couple years ago fracking companies stopped fracking because it wasn't economically feats al there is a lot of things going on, but i guess the biden administration and forces from esg kind of, would you say, emboldened putin to be able to hold europe hostage? that probably had something to

do with him feeling like he could get away with this. >> joe, there's a lot in that question i just -- let me tell you, first and foremost, the biden administration about a year ago was blaming high gasoline prices on the war at ukraine, but gasoline had gone up 50% before the first shots were fired it went on because of the biden's war on energy. i was in new mexico campaigning with a candidate for governor last year. they told me that literally in those two years two wells had been approved as the biden administration has slow walking the performing process -- >> they disagree with that they pushed back on that. >> i know they do. i'm just talking about the reality on the ground, the american people know it, they feel it, and also this esg business of saying that funds are going to flow away from

traditional fossil fuels, the investment in fossil feels, what we saw happen in exxon with the election of a board member look -- you guys are the corporate experts, but i think corporations have a fiduciary duty to maximize profits under the law, and any time some other agenda comes into that, working americans lose esg has impacted -- >> with the inflation reduction act, obviously there's a huge subsidy for clean tech, which you are seeing a lot of automobile makers take advantage of is that a good thing a bad thing? by the way, some of the numbers suggest it's going to be so successful that it will cost the government three or four times what was initially projected. >> well, look. number one, that second bill another nearly trillion in

spending washes only pouring gasoline on the fire of inflation and the struggling economy. it didn't have to happen back up for one second the $1.9 trillion that congress passed on a party line vote was deeply disappoints to me one of the things i was plowed of during that pandemic is everything we did in congress was bipartisan everything it helped the families, businesses, rescue plan, everything we did. the democrats come into the majority, new administration comes in, first thing they do is a party-line vote for $1.9 trillion the second bill was just more of the same, but advancing a climate agenda what i worked in that bill, frankly is massive subsidies for american cars. 80% of the battery market in the world today is china in a very real sense as we continue through incentives and frankly you this mandates --

it's interesting, in places like california, it's the chiron full employment act i'm all for diversification of energy i'm all of the above energy guys electric vehicles are great, but let's have battery manufacturing here let's do innovation here, and not further subsidize the largest -- >> are you okay if we take an exit ramp off our lane into 2024 >> we could talk about it. >> first of all, what happened in 2022. given the right track/wrong track, people thought the republicans could win 70 seats something -- a wrong turn at albuquerque, something hat in 2022 will it happen again in 2024 what do you attribute it to that the republicans didn't do better, given some of the backdrop that most people saw? >> well, i was one of those

people hoping for a red wave. >> what happened >> in pockets, a red wave came, joe. >> sudden know where i'm going >> i'm going to concede your point. president trump -- do you want him as the nominee in the republican party >> let met get to that in one second. >> or yourself >> i'll keep you posted. look, i think when you look at the 2022 election cycle, it's an affirmation elections are about the future our candidates focused on the issues affecting americans today, solutions for the future did very much. governors, you think tex, florida, georgia, governor brian kemp our candidates that were focused on the past, particularly on relitigating the last election, did not do well, including in areas we should have done well. >> did you say we need someone

else in 2024 >> i've said -- i think we'll have better chances vikram -- you probably follow him a bit -- >> okay, nikki haley, tim scott, governor desantis, but you get enough of them, the former president could do what happened in 2016 and win with 30%, 35%, because there's so many candidates. >> yeah, but you're leaving somebody out of the equation there? >> mike pence? >> no, not just mike pence. >> who else? >> the american people i don't think anybody could have defeated hillary clinton other than donald trump in 2016. i didn't realize it in the beginning. i endorsed ted cruz in the indiana primary, but republican voters were right, what we

needed in that fight i just trust republican voters ai travel around the country, i hearty a great deal of precious of what the trump administration accomplished, but i honestly hear people talking about wanting to get back to the policies, but wanting to return to the kind of politics that makes it policy for us to take on some of these long-term intractable problems that means more civility i think it means more -- >> what do you make of people like marjorie taylor greene, then, as members of this party, or santos, or people like that -- >> or aoc, or -- >> i get to ask the questions. >> i do, too >> it's a free kung. >> but they're part of your party. is this a good thing for the party? bad thing for the party? >> i think freedom of speech, a

rousing debate in the congress is all good. people on every end of the spectrum, every level of credibility, but at the end of the day, what we need in this country is leadership. under our constitution, under our form of government, ultimately -- alexander hamilton said our constitution contemplates an energetic executive. china is coming economically and the greatest strategic challenge that america faces we have to step to that in a very real way, and that's how we ensure or prosperity and peace in the future. this national debt issue, andrew, we've talked about it, we've got to have leadership these cultural issues, parental rights, respect for life, these are all things the american people need leadership on.

it's what we think about as as a family based on my experience >> vice president, thank you we'll end back in our lane, talking about the debt again that make probably people in the corner offices happy thank you. when we come back, we'll get you up to speed on today ace corporate inventories, and the ceo from roblox. a reminder, as we head to a break, you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. download and listen anytime. rng.htacthng rig bk is moin y number sleepers very satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can gently raise your partner's head to help relieve snoring. so, you can both stay comfortable all night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. ends monday.

don't know if we account that to mr. bullard's comments this morning, but we were in the red when the program began >> we were coming up, we're going to talk more about what could be happening real time with the stock market mike santoli on what he's watching ahead of the opening bell on wall street. then an interview with the ceo

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welcome back to "squawk

box. jim bullard was with us saying the american economy is stronger than previously thought. he said he still sees a terminal interest rates just below 5.4%, but then he used walmart's fourth quarter results from yesterday morning, as he said was an example of the country getting on the road towards timing high inflation. >> consumers are trading down, they're benefiting, that's what i heard. that sounds like a disinflationary process. >> you're happy? >> that's how the disinflation will occur. >> bullard says he thinking the u.s. can see disinflation along with a strong economy at the same time. meantime coinbase shares are lower following the fourth quarter results, revenues coming

in, but still fell almost 75% year over year, going to a non-adjusted net loss. trading activity has dried up. here's how ceo brian armstrong addressed the environment on the company's call last night. >> it tense to flip every two years, either irrational exuberance or despair. neither one is true at any one time that also means there's an opportunity for builders focused in the space so if you take where we are and just compare it to betweeniers. >> we'll have a chance to brian armstrong on wednesday mike santoli will join us, roughly an hour to go before the opening bell what are you watching? >> coming up, exactly 2%

decline, we've been going sideways for a also while. actually kind of interesting to look back on that. that was this right here continued a bit lower, and then slouched into the end of the year and sort of consolidated at this lower level if something like that was going on after we had this period before it, where we were sort of stalled out. a little more than a pointing to the 3900 to 4,000 area and then this low is in the 3800 area, so if you want to keep that higher low. obviously a big part of the story. this is the investment agreed

corporate bond, along -- and you see basically they come into sync, and then separate a bit. over a longer period of time, it's not so need and tidy as this we went off for a year and a half when corporate bond yields bottomed it's not always going to be the case, but you do have this gap that's opened up here or can stocks decline a bit more in order to accommodate the higher cost of capital. take a look pat a cup the recent leadership groups. mining and metals, this is over six months

>> the globalreflation. >> i was going to ask if we had some healing with january 1st, and whether some of the progress that we had made with any of it reversed yesterday did we break anything? >> i why sanity it was decisively reversed. some would say there was definitely some active urgent selling, but the overall volumes not that strong. in terms of the levels, the trends, no, we didn't really jeopardizes anything too much. we're fighting this two-front area, so i think that's why people feel like maybe it's

fragile. we got these momentum signals in january, people rushing into a broad set of stocks. that hasn't been unwound yet, but of course it's going to get tested >> i think bullard -- i don't know if you were watching, mike, but he takes a half-full view of the strength of the economy. we've been assuming it's a negative, but he says it allows us to handle they're just trying to rein inflation in, and maybe the job market is strong enough to where they can sort of orchestrate that, you know, i guess that's why it's called a soft landing >> yeah. >> i think -- >> i think the reason the market liked what jay powell set after the last couple times he spoke, he did not suggest a need to

soften up the labor market radically here we're seal what the minutes say about that conversation. >> all right mike, thank you. in the meantime, let's talk about the world of computers and gaming, a.i. we're going to talk about the promises and challenges of artificial intelligence. sam altman this weekend says the adaptation to a world deeply integrated with a.i. tools will probably happen. another tweet he acknowledged that regulation will be cr critical i think we are potential not that far away from potentially scary ones joining us to talk about this, is david suzuki. great to see you here, the roblox shares surged 26% last

wednesday, when your company reported better than expected results. i want to talk about your company, the business, what you're seeing with the consumer. i do want to talk about a.i., because it's on the lips of everybody, about what the future looks like how are you, david >> thank you so much as you mentioned we had a great q4, almost 900 million in bookings. something just to note, in 2022, we burned almost zero cash, so really proud of our results for the year. >> what does this say about either your business or what does it say more largely, perhaps, about the consumer? >> yeah, our -- roblox is founded on an emerging category of communication technology, sometimes referred to as the metaverse. we know it as the way our friends, our family, our kids can come together to be together there's enorm onous catheadwind

the 17 to 24 segment was up 31% year on year, so for this category, we feel there's enormous head room it's a new way for people to come together. >> why do you call it bookings some people the other day said it's not a travel company. >> yeah. it's really interesting. the metaverse or roblox, really, when we sell things, maybe someone makes a shirt for an avatar and they sell it, it's considered really a durable good, so our revenue is deferred over 29 months bookings is cash bookings is the way we run the business and we they it's a more accurate way for investor to say watch our business. >> when you look at who's spending -- one of things we've been talking, people trading up and down, do you see that in the digital goods space?

>> what's really interesting is, regardless of the economy, and we've been through a few of these ups and downs. mostconsumers we have seen hav been unaffected. people have $5 to spend on virtual goods for their avatar, even if maybe they're not buying a new vacation home. we've seen the business continue to grow through what we might call a recession and, you know, consider hitting the all-time highs. >> are you surprised -- the reason i ask is, in the world, for example, of collectibles, real-life collectibles, people get sneakers, for example, on stock ex, which i think is reflective of the economy, of the stock market, but not in digital goods. i wonder why you think that is yeah, most of the spending on roblox or digital is not

high-end collectibles. most of the spending is 50 cents or 100 robucks, so the spending on roblox is much more like utility spending rather than collectible spending >> i want to pivot to the conversation around a.i., because everybody is talking about chatgpt. i don't know if you saw the "new york times" article where kevin rouse had a conversation can children's hospital children's hospital, otherwise known as sydney, which was the original code name. he or she said some wild, wild stuff when you start to extrapolate that out, where it's not just a conversation in text, but in some other format, what that portends and means, david

>> yeah, i think it's really going to be fun, not scary, on roblox we use a lot of a.i. already to make search and discovery better, to help people find better content we use a lot of a.i. in our safety systems, but imagine a future where, if you and i today in the physical world wanted to make clothing for our avatars, we would have to get a sewing machine, go buy fabric and really be one of the great contestants on "project runway." in the digital world we traditionally use a 3-d modeling program. what a.i. brings us is making clothing by talking about it if i have a black ball gown around the shoulders and i want the fabric to change color we'll literally have a magic want at our disposal to create whether it's creating clothing,

whether it's allowing a school in the united states to have maybe a partner school in japan and do real-time voice translate with that school, all the way to help people learn to code, so we're very optimistic to accelerate communication connection and creation. >> all of that to me is so very cool obviously i'm a big fan of inos investigation. i think there's a lot of people anxious about what it technology can mean and what protections need to be built in. i don't know what your reaction was to that children's hospital children' -- chatgpt, but microsoft needs to the better. >> in general, the way we think about it in the full is where--t

microsoft needs to the better. >> in general, the way we think about it in the full is where when we think about a.i. on roblox, it's generating things like our avatar, helping generate the realtime translation between people. >> what about the possibility that you're going to start playing against a.i. bots? i gets people -- we've all been playing against the computer, to some degree, for a long time maybe it will change >> i think that's -- that would be possible someday. for example, you can't imagine you and i going and having a chat with abraham lincoln. the key thing i think that we see here is our foundation has always been one of safety and civility, so we'll be very careful if and when we roll out a.i. bot-type technology >> meta obviously rebranded itself in the world in which you

live in, which is the metaverse. where do you think the hold goggle -- we're hearing hearing that apple will come out with something, too, how that manifests itself, whether it represents competition, opportunity? >> yeah, we think this category is so big, it's a category of all devices. people on roblox are on that you are phones, on their computers, on gaming consoles, on tablets, and goggles will be a complement to that, but i think all of these are devices where people ultimately consume 3-d content some will be very immersive like 3-d goggles, others will be very spontaneous like the phone i think they'll all sit side by side >> two other quickies, activision and this microsoft deal, how do you feel about that does the government call you does the doj call you and say,

hey, what do you think >> we're a platform where millions of developers are creating immersive content these developers are creating such a wide range of creative experiences, we're less of a gaming studio. that's almost for us a different category right now we're not -- i don't really have a comment on that, just because we're doing something so different >> finally, we were talking with vice president pence literally in the last half hour. and, of course, the topic of russia/ukraine came up with. roblox is one of the few international companies stole doing business in russia i think some people wonder why >> our vision is bringing people together around the world to have civil and optimistic communication. our vision hasn't changed. >> i assume you kind of push back on people who say we're

trying to get out of russia to both make a statement or because we are unhappy with what's happening in that country. are you happy about what's happening in that country? >> you know, our vision is to bring people together, to help people discuss things with civility and optimism. that's really universal around the world. >> david, we appreciate you joining us we hope to see you in person or maybe in the metaverse, or maybe we'll see on online. thank you so very much. >> thank you so much thanks coming up, we'll take to jim cramer, and he had an inrvteiew with howard shultz, who is putting olive oil in coffee. stay tuned

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let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. nice night to have doug mcmillon on, and i mean, jim, i think that he definitely distinguished walmart from home depot, and the proof was in the pudding yesterday. walmart closed up. >> yeah, well, home depot is uniquely related to housing if housing appreciates in value, then home depot does much better because you feel like you're capitalizing your investment when housing doesn't increase, you're expensing walmart, on the other hand, is just completely about getting

prices down, so you see the private label doing so well versus their branded, that it forces branded to come down and makes it so the consumer feels better off i think they're very different companies now, and doug mcmillon has really spearheaded this notion of getting prices down for the country, maybe more effective than anything the fed's doing. >> although i've said this a few times, he opened my eyes to the possibility that they're not trying to raise unemployment, that they see the strong labor market as an opportunity to grapple with inflation, near-term, while they can do it, while the sun is shining on the labor market do it now, and if they can deal with the inflation, you know, maybe they can get in, get out inflation comes back down, labor market stays strong, and we're off moving positively again in terms of stimulating the economy. >> great call. and i think that one of the things they're really doing is

going after people they haven't gone after for it, gen z, gen x, millennials, betting they, right now, they come in and discover walmart as a place to be able to save money, then they don't go back to the other guys these walmarts are very, very good in terms of what they're doing to make it so that a person who can't make ends meet or is trying to, knows that the place to shop is walmart >> what's your -- do you have a range for what s&p earns this year how wide is that range what's the high? what's the low then i'm just going to do the -- >> no, i leave that to the guys who don't want to know about individual companies and just like to go, you know, that's good >> separate question >> i learned that at -- when i was in business school class >> olive oil in the coffee what's your take >> we need to have an emulsifier, because when i did it myself, andrew, it didn't really work. there's a secret sauce component that we don't have yet, because otherwise, i would tell you that

maybe it's a little healthier but doesn't taste that good. look, howard obviously has something. he wouldn't just declare this to be his next, i would say, the next iteration of howard schultz, but i don't know. probably tastes better cold. espresso martini sounds really good i'm never going to doubt that guy. after what he's built, i like it >> you can't i don't know if i get something with golden foam on it, i'm sending it back, typically. i will try this. i will try this. thanks, jim. >> thank you guys. >> we'll see you in a couple minutes. quk x"ilbeig back.

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welcome back to "squawk," little more than half an hour from the opening bell on wall street we're looking up after what was liking to start a down day want to talk markets with julie beal, portfolio manager and senior research analyst at anderson and rudnik, also a cnbc contributor. good morning to you. how much did these jim bullard comments change the dynamic or did they >> i don't think they do change the dynamic, because if you're thinking about positioning for this year, it's more a function of what's going to happen with earnings, and i think people are

still trying to figure out the direction of the fed, and the fed really hasn't changed their point of view, right they have been saying, if anything, we're going to err on the side of overtightening, and so i think if you're any kind of investor, it's sort of like being a husband and being told throughout the week what's going to happen on the weekend and kind of ignoring it and then being shocked that you're at a soccer tournament for eight hours. they haven't changed their tune. they've said it over and over again, and i think it's time for the markets to take stock of that >> well, if they're going to take stock of that, we should not be in the green. we should be in the red, right >> yeah, i mean, i think day-to-day movements are going to be driven by sentiment and excitement over possible rate cuts, but i think if you think of why the fed would be cutting rates, it's probably because the economy is in some sort of tail spin, so that's not great for risk assets. i think for your longer term investors, you should still stay invested i'm not calling for being fully defensive, but i think you have to protect yourself against any kind of slowdown that may be

coming >> okay, so, what does that mean, though, to you if it's not to be fully defensive, what would you be doing? >> i think looking at businesses that have real structural protections. i think of ones where, you know, like an old dominion where you have some route density, something like a copart where you have parts -- you have sites that just can't be replaced. those are structural protections, and so they tend to be better protected competitively, where businesses and health care that are serving stronger sectors but not necessarily dependent on fda approvals. >> what about tech what do you do about tech right now? >> i think tech is not a monolith i like the tech that's focused on scustomers that are going to be well positioned to keep spending a lot of these saas businesses are not really delivering on a lower total cost of ownership, so i think you could see seat counts coming down, and that's going to hurt larger tech, but the ones that are serving government, like a tyler technologies, they're better

positioned because they're pretty flush right now with cash to spend >> there are so many viewers who are still hanging on, holding on to f.a.n.g. stocks and they look, and some of them are saying, maybe there's a value play here at this point? >> i think some of them are a value play if you think about google, the way that that is trading right now, it's pretty attractive in terms of its pricing, and it has such strong competitive protections around its business. i think the introduction of chatgpt is helpful to google, because it gives them a better place to argue with the ftc about market concentration and competitive protection >> smart point julie, thank you for joining us this morning i want to take a final check on the final markets, dow up about 55 points, nasdaq up 38 points, s&p 500 up about 7 points i don't know if that's a jim bullard reaction or something else this morning. and maybe julie's right.

>> at least we went down to d.c. >> ten-year note, two-year note. >> when's the coffee available >> well, in milan, if you want to take the trip >> when will we have it here onset? >> onset as i drink my coffee -- >> doesn't have olive rooil. >> i think it's this spring. spring is only a month or two away make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange, looking for some stabilization today after the biggest selloff since mid-december, jim bullard on "squawk" not as hawkish as some may have feared our road map going to begin with stocks struggling to bounce. bullard says markets are overpricing recession risk plus