looks like it's going to support airbus and boeing production increases. >> josh brown? >> starbucks don't drink cups of olive oil, you idiots >> jenny >> madden, 6.2% yield. >> all right good stuff i'll see you on "closing bell. "the exchange" begins right now. >> thank you, scott. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. the fed's james bullard, reis rating his call to go north of 5% how many agree stocks try to recover from their worst day of the year. and one of our guests says high inflation is leading some companies to suffer from money illusion, and it's one reason layoffs haven't hit just jet and we'll talk to the ceo about

the disinflation they're seeing. but first, let's get to dom chu with today's market. >> session highs right now it is green across the board marginally speaking. it's about a quarter to 1/3 percent gain the dow up to 33,19 7. and the s&p 500 is above that 4,000 mark again, up about nine points and how is this for symmetry at the highs of the session, kind of near where we are, we were up 14 points. at the lows, we were down 14 points so, again, drifting towards the higher end of things right now the nasdaq performance, at 11,536, up 44 points one place to watch in particular is what's happening right now from a macro perspective on the crude oil front. it's down about 2.5% right now, serve straight days worth of

losses for crude prices amidst that fear that higher interest rates could dampen the company pushing fuel demand down you can see here, we have lost about 20% of crude oil's value over the last year so watch those and the stocks that go along with them. and then if you are looking for a real bright spot, check out what's happening with the home builders on the heels of toll brothers, up 3.5% right now, out with earnings, where profits and revenues coming in better than expected and we're seeing stronger signs of demand in the first part of 2023, having a carryover effect. mohawk industries, they do flooring, a lot of those flooring type companies are up about 1% there home depot on the home improvement front, up about 1.5% and home construction, up about 1.5%, as well. so check out housing, receiving signs of life. i'll send things back over to you. >> dom, thank you. less than an hour away from

the release of the fed minutes steve liesman is at the federal reserve with what to expect. steve? >> yes, thanks the minutes of the january and february meet willing be scrutinized closely for what they say about how aggressive the fed will be in the months ahead. but the tricky part here is how much has happened since the meeting that might not be reflected in these minutes we had a block buster jobs report, a huge sales report. we had two sticky inflation reports. we had bullard from st. louis and mister from cleveland saying they wanted 50 base points last meeting, something that bullard reiterated again today all of that has created a dramatic move in the outlook for the fed this year, with pricing in the futures market surging. after that fed meeting on february 1 to around 515 today you can wait a long time to see a move like that in your lifetime

it's hoped that the minutes can shed some light on how many officials joined bullard in wanting a 50 at the last meeting and how many might support one in march or do most prefer this idea about 25 basis point increments. markets look for 25s in the months ahead that's a new development in the last several weeks the main takeaway, the market has come a long way since the last meeting and pricing more rate hikes in, and is priced -- the minutes today affirm that hawkish term we're likely to get a new rate hike, along with, in the interim, kelly, more inflation and jobs and economic activity reports. >> right, which is arguably more important. steve, question. the minutes we usually turn to for new information that might reveal a split among the members, hinting about the future which part of the struggle will win out.

do we have any differences of opinion right now? you pointed this out that people are so consistent actually i wonder if it takes up some of the drama. >> they had been, and these revelations even before the minute where is they front run the release of the minutes, was the one big development that happened in terms of some kind of what do you want to call it a crack in the monolithic fed speak when it comes to raising rates. and what we will be looking for today is how many people join them are they just two that wanted 50, may want 50? it was a slight regime shift from these big 70 to 50, to powell saying i think we're going to move in 25s in the future bullard wants the fed to get to the terminal rate, this is what he told us today, at 5 3/8 and go in quarters after that. that's how he wanted to move >> that gives us quite a lot

steve, we'll see you in an hour. is the fed winning this round? seems like they are in the battle of the fed versus the market wall street is by nature too optimistic, and that this would have to come around to the fed's higher rate hike path. yesterday, we saw that happened. we did hear st. louis fed president james bullard this morning reiterating his call for rates to hit 5.4%. so will that mean lower stock prices welcome, peter and doug ramsey is here, as well chief investment officer at the loophole group great to have you both here. peter, you highlighted the remarks, you heard from bullard this morning he wants 50s until we get all the way up there what are you going to be watching for >> well, they are relying on the strong labor market and still elevated inflation, in giving them license and comfort that

they can keep doing this if all of a sudden the next payroll number has a minus sign, then all of a sudden, okay, maybe they -- we government one left, maybe two tops where initial jobs claims, if they tick up above 200, which they have been very low. but until that happens, the fed feels like they have free rein to continue tightening just as when inflation was low, they felt they could print all the money in the world >> do you think that infrastructure spending, government projects is partly responsible for why things have suddenly held up so well, or do you think it's just a weather effect, or hey, the business cycle is pretty strong >> well, it definitely in construction sort of creates that bid for more workers. but also creates a further cycling higher of wages. there is this assumption that we can build this infrastructure, but where do you find the people you have to pay up, which means

home builders need to pay up to retain people. so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy >> so it can keep things hotter than it would have been otherwise? >> sure. this is a lot of government spending that is being thrown on and an already inflationary environment. >> a couple of different hotel ceos have highlighted that doug, you have an interesting theory how this is leading to labor hoarding wing stock, 9% versus 6% expected all of this is nominal in real terms, do you think companies will face more of a reckoning in terms of how strong demand really is >> i do, and as you noted, it's going to be more difficult to pick up ain lower inflation times. in the fourth quarter, real gdp was up 1% year over year nominal gdp was up 7.3%.

it's been decades since we have seen that sort of cap. of course, companies are seeing that nominal growth flow overtheir doorsteps. so to them, the economy is still pretty solid, but it's clearly slowing down >> you want to bring in rick in a moment but doug, you say we have seen this before in the '70s and '80s how does it play out at what point -- how does this battle play out when nominal gives way to real? >> well, i think the slip into recession could be a really quick one when it comes about. what we're assuming right now is we might have a sort of sweet spot over the next number of months it's difficult to time just because of the -- i think we're still suffering reverberations from the death and the decline and then the strength of the rebound. that's still all reverberating through the economic notes it's been well noted while m2

contracted for the first time on record, or at least since the 1930s, first time in the modern record last year, but it grew 40% cumulatively in the two years preceding 2022 so are we still seeing some carry over from that enormous stimulus post covid, is that still carrying over? i think so, and that could continue for a while longer. and embolden these companies to hang on to the workers that they were lucky enough to get >> let's turn to this. you see the yield well over 4% how is demand, rick? >> you know, demand was a little better than average. the grade i gave for demand was a c plus $43 billion five-year notes. the yield, 4.189 the one issue market ended up 4.1056 so lower yield, higher price the higher yield, lower price. so it wasn't bad in terms of

pricing, and the metrics were all a little bit above average but at the end of the day, what i really wanted to concentrate on was indirect bidders. we all like indirect bidding category, because it represents foreign interests. that was at the second highest level since 2016 and if we look at dealers, dealers takedown was 11%, the second best since recordkeeping and my recordkeeping goes back 20 years so c plus for the five-year note option what i want to caution many on, as markets have snubbed up and taken the spread out, i want to draw your attention to two-year note yields, settled right after current high yield close yesterday. for the five-year, that's 4.44% from the 20th of october you could see we haven't traded above it the rest of the curve hasn't either, and you need to pay close attention to the high

water marks from last fall kelly, back to you >> rick, thank you very much doug, let me turn back to you. so when we translate all of this, and believe me, everyone out there is watching this and trying to figure out if they need to have the answer to if and when we're going into recession to be invested right now. you would stick with energy and health care and even on the energy side, things are looking weak, at least in terms of commodities. you also like areas like construction, semiconductors, home builders. can you explain that >> you know, very often there are many cycles underneath going on that are a little bit out of sync, especially in this bizarre environment we have had post covid. i heard discussion on deere earlier. i can't talk about individual names, but one of our most recent purchases is the construction and farm machinery group. so yeah, i think commodities could stay surprisingly firm in a recessionary environment

again, i don't have a lot of confidence when we're going to sink into recession. i mean, by the likes of the leading economic indicators, we probably should have fallen into recession sometime in the fourth quarter. of course, we like to look at the yield curve. our measure would be the ten-year bond rate the average lead time is ten months it's been as long as 16. so the economy could hold up here, just based on the strength of the lag stimulus for quite a while longer we're also in the home builders, they have had an enormous run over the last six or seven months, despite a collapsing housing market so the economy or even the microeconomic cycles in these things don't always align with the stock price option >> i'm relieved to hear you say that peter, i give you a final thought here, having what doug

and rick said about the auction in terms of, okay, tactically, what do people do right now? >> well, from a fixed income perspective, you would think with these kind of yield where is they are, particularly the two-year, just shy of a 16-year high, you would think they would be in a lot of demand. these are yields we haven't seen in many years. i think it just tells you they're just reticent to pile in, because there are other risks involved with fixed income it's what the boj does with their yield curve, how the ecb does qt. all these other factors that keep rates elevated. >> do you think 5.1% for the retail investor, not the -- i mean, come on, is that just throwing money at you? why shouldn't somebody take that offer? >> they should there's been starvation in fixed income for essentially 15 years, and there's finally something to eat. >> right final word following on to that, what about the rest of thecurve,

should it be equally as attractive >> the boj or ecb and how the u.s. treasury deals with qt while there's a lot of supply. the ten-year is much more difficult to call here ky make an argument it should go to 4 1/2 to 5, or i can say it should be 3 if we go into recession. the shorter end is more obvious. >> we'll leave it there. thank you both it's been great to have you here today. coming up, wing stop flying to a new all-time high, but less than a year ago, the ceo told investors they were in the midst of a perfect storm what is behind this reversal we'll ask him next and a trio of tech titans are on deck we'll get the trade on that one. as we head to break, let's look at the markets, broadly

speaking, where we see yields for the ten-year down below 3.9%, supporting about a half per spent rise in the nasdaq back after this. all across the country, people are working hard to build a better future. so we're hard at work helping them achieve financial freedom. we're proud to serve people everywhere, in investing for the retirement they envision. from the plains to the coasts, we help americans invest for their future. and help communities thrive. what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions

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welcome back shares of wingstop up more than 10% earlier, after earnings up 7.5% chicken wing deflation, a big tail wind. digital sales also helping while the restaurant industry has been struggling to find workers, wingstop say they're insulated from that challenge. joining me now is the ceo. michael, welcome back. >> thank you, kelly. >> thank you for joining us. what is going on with chicken wing prices? is the worst behind us >> we saw a significant deflation in wing prices our core commodity, you have seen the overall price of the bird come down significantly it does seem like a lot of that inflation is behind us what's been really nice for wingstop, in addition to experiencing meaningful deflation, earlier than most other brands have seen, it put us in a spot where we didn't have to take price in 2022, and we're able to see strong growth

in our brand that resulted in us delivering our 19th consecutive year of store growth >> you didn't have a problem with higher labor costs? >> we got in front of labor, and we were able to navigate that. but we have a unique position at wingstop we have a proven value playbook, that allows us to lean in and provide that occasion to consumers. in addition, we were able to pull several unique growth levers that brought a lot of new guests in to wingstop. while you see other restaurant companies see transaction loss in 2022 because of the pricing they look, we saw our comp in q4 alone of 8.7% being driven by transaction growth >> that answers the conversation we were just having, is it all nominal? but there's more transaction so zip recruiter will be on next

hour their stock is down today. they said in the first few weeks of 2023, employers have relosed recruitment -- reduced recruitment budgets. are you seeing signs of that happening? is the labor demand softening, the consumer acting a little more unpredictable >> we see a lot of the same headlines out there around the overall labor environment. for wingstop, we're growing. in q4, we opened 61 new restaurants. just by delivering that number that culminated in a record year for our brand, showcases that we are not having trouble staffing, in fact, we're growing we guided earlier this morning to another record year of development. we expect roughly 240 net new restaurants in 2023. >> what is the price of chicken wings now? are we lower than prepandemic levels >> we are. we are seeing the price of chicken wings near a dollar, which is much low than the

historical average price, which is translating to strong economics. a lot of what is fueling that growth i just referenced >> refresh me, i thought we were $1.50, now we're down to a dollar it's a microcosm in some ways. i wonder if these shortages have turned into gluts. how do we end up with a glut of chicken swings >> i think you had a lot of production, a z the labor force did come back for a lot of these poultry producers. they increased production and spending you saw the consumer coming out of this post pandemic environment and wanting to dine out. you saw them leaning into other parts of their menu, the dine-in business, more of the chicken breast meat utilization, which resulted in a lot of extra wings out there. >> final question on that, the problem when you don't manage inventory, not you, the sort of

society at large, correctly, you keep swinging from shortages to gluts. we have a glut right now could you be dealing with kind of reverberations like that for years to come? >> the leading indicators suggest a favorable commodity backdrop in 2023 everyone out there is trying to figure out exactly what demand looks like in the back half of '23. as we look at the key leading indicators, it suggests it will be a favorable commodity backdrop for wingstop in familiar and a lot of what went into the industry leading guide we provided this morning for 2023 >> fascinating certainly lower prices supporting customer visits it's unfair to have you on, i'm drooling, michael. thank you for your time. appreciate it. that's the ceo of wingstop still ahead, another check on the consumer. this time with the ceo of travel and leisure, fresh off the

earnings shares are up 14% this year. as we head to break, here's a look at the dow. back after this.

welcome back, everybody. just off session highs dow is up 105. s&p hitting 4,013. palo alto posting its third straight profitable quarter after a decade of losses the ceo says they're three years ahead of profitability goals they laid down in 2021

with more than 15 million shares traded today, it's nearly four times its average volume apple also turning positive in the past hour on a bloomberg report that they made a breakthrough on a glucose monitoring system that could be incorporated into the apple watch. you can see this shift here from being in the red to up a half percent right now. shares of the medical device maker are falling as much as 9% on the news. they are well off session lows with a 1% monitors they are tricky but kind of cool and intel announcing a rare dividend cut this morning, slashing their quarterly payout by 2/3 from about 36 to 12 cents a share. intel's first cut in over 20 years. the shares are down 60% since the last reduction in 2000 so there are other places to turn if are hunting for yield on that >> to your point, investors and

traders were expecting intel would have to cut dividend to shore up its balance sheet with that in effect, consumer dischrikrcretionary is our sect focus. this is one of the at least yielding sectors out there overall, you have a 0.9% yield, the s&p 500 is closer to 160 basis points or 1.6% if you take a look at where traders and investors, some of them look for the healthier dividends, opposed to yields that go up because the share prices collapse, they look toward the stocks that have increased their annual dividend for 25 plus years. in those, the s&p 500 consumer's discretionary sector has five names that fit that aristocrat me methodology. here are those five. they are lowe's, which has a 2%

yield for dividends. genuine parts, about a 2.2%. mcdonald's, 2.3%, target, 2.6%, and vf, 4.8% so those names, they look to those dividend aristocrats out of those companies considered aristocrats in the s&p 500, these fiveare in the consumer discretionary sector. back over to you >> people will have to reach for what could be a dif debldz in d -- dividend in danger tileer amid criticism, the white house is responding too slowly to the csx train derailment in ohio, pete buttigieg visited east palestine, or will tomorrow where residents are worried about exposure to the toxic chemicals that were aboard that derailed train president trump there today to

draw a contrast with the biden administration >> >> meantime, trump's vice president, mike pence, is drawing his own contrast with his former boss' pledge never to touch social security and medicare mr. pence said entitlements will fuel the crisis in the u.s. over the next 25 years, and nobody in washington wants to talk about it >> well, i respect the speaker's commitment to take social security and medicare off the table for the debt ceiling negotiations we've got to put them on the table in the long-term >> and national public radio will lay off roughly 10% of its staff. that's at least 100 jobs the ceo citing falling advertising revenues for its podcasts and calls the job cuts a major loss kelly, back to you >> tyler, thank you. coming up, nvidia has only

missed earnings once in five years. and alibaba will give us a read. and investors watching for any further guidance on that workforce reduction plan and in february, we're celebrating black heritage through the stories of our teammates and leaders in business here's frank colin ♪ ♪ >> no one does anything alone. during black heritage month, we must remember the people that laid the ground work for the opportunities that we all enjoy today. including my parents, especially my some. she said everything we have has been worked for, sacrificed for and prayed for, and none of it was given. there were many times my mom or grandparents or even further back, endutook less to put me in the position i'm in today. i was the first person in my

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welcome back, everybody. it's time for earnings exchange. today, we're talking tech. we have the action, story, and trade on nvidia and alibaba. nvidia, shares up 30% in the past three months. intel slashed the dividend and an explosive growth in ai. steve has the story and kim forest joins us. steve, let's start with you and this earnings report what are you watching? >> the word of the day is going to be dramatic slowdown for nvidia's business. we saw that during the last earnings and probably going to see it again with gaming expected to take as much as a 50% drop year on year. we know the reason behind that we saw it from microsoft pc sales have collapsed.

so no surprise there but speaking of gaming, they just signed this great agreement with microsoft yesterday microsoft pledging to -- if the activision goes through, to put activision and some xbox games on nvidia's cloud gaming service. so that could provide a boost to the gaming business. and over to davis center, there's a slow growth there, slowing down as enterprise dries up all this energy andinvestment around artificial intelligence, chat tv and so forth is putting optimism in the stock, up 40% or more so far year-to-date a lot of that is because of the excitement around ai how long does it take for nvidia to capitalize and make some of the best chips in this to sell into data centers for future start-ups or other companies that want to get in on this trend. i'll be listening on the call for when the ceo, when they

expect to see a windfall from this or revenue boost in the data center business, because of all this excitement around ai. >> steve, when the announcement became out for microsoft that nvidia would still have access to these games, i'm thinking nvidia what? can you just fill that in a little bit >> so what that is, think of it as netflix before to you gaming. so instead of installing the game on your pc, your stream the game now, xbox has a similar service. what microsoft is offering nvidia here to get nvidia to endorse the deal, they said we'll give you some of these activision and xbox games, including call of duty, and nvidia said yes. and they're all in on the deal now. >> i just didn't realize they had this again, we're getting too far off point. but when you say we promise we'll give it to you for ten

years, you're implying it has a shelf life all right, steve kim, let me turn to you so you can pop the ai balloon, and don't break my heart too much. i think this is stunning technology, just to my naked eyes but you have worked on stuff like this and you're warning it's going the way of 3-d printers >> well, i don't know if it will go the way of 3-d printers that was probably the most hyped, not really ever gotten to its promise of technology. so getting back to ai. ai has some great uses, no doubt. it's like magic, but better because it's real, right and where i think it's overhyped, it's not going to be quite as knowledgeable it will be great in spot applications but it's not going to take over our lives, sorry. and it's going to take far longer to roll out than we ever thought. look at autonomous cars that use

a lot of ai. they are solving a lot of difficult problems, which take a long time to solve that being said, nvidia will benefit in time from its chips no doubt, it makes some of the best chips that run networks, and that is machine learning >> if it has to shift to this kind of computation, it's massively more expensive so bottom line, kim, would you tell people that nvidia's stock is overvalued here because this is too much hype, or sit a good long-term hold for the next wave of the future? >> sure. i think you have to be a really long-time holder as an investor to make money overall. especially in technology this is one of those companies that has technology that's going to be needed for years to come so have patience with this company. >> 55 pe, reasonable steve, thank you very much let's turn the alibaba now,

whose shares are down 21% over the past month what happened to the china reopening? dom chu has the story. >> so from a headline perspective, we look for earnings around 16 spot 26 per share. now, beyond those top and bottom line investments, investors will wait through the report for any signs tied to your point of the health of the chinese consumer and the impact reopening efforts. will there be an outlook offered for not just the e commerce business, which makes up the bulk of alibaba, but the cloud services, as well. and much like other chinese tech companies, it's got a lot of smaller stuff going on, things like food delivery, thin tech, streaming videos are there any updates on that front? of course, will they say anything about artificial intelligence and their ambitions there? as for the options market, it's pricing in 5% up or down on the

heels of that report >> kim, he called this one of his biggest mistakes of all time do you like the stock here >> i do not. although they out amazon over in china, i think the political issues around any company in china always gives me pause. you know, jack ma went on some vacation at some point it's these issues that make me run the other way. the other thing, is demographics in china are not good. if you are a long-term holder, that one-child policy is supposed to make the population decline. it looks like they're on that tipping point when they release their population census a couple of months ago. so we look for china to be a declining population area. as that, there will be better places in the world to invest. >> very interesting. a lot of this reflected in how

poorly it's trading. netapp just announced a reduction in their workforce dom, what can you tell us? >> investor also be looking at what netapp can show them about the health of the cloud computer enterprise or industry overall the consensus estimates, $1.31 a share in earnings. some traders and investors may recall that netapp stock got crushed just a quarter ago due in large part to what was viewed as a softer forecast so the outlook really disappointed with. that in mind, somewhat will demand for cloud hardware and software look like are the macro economic concerns clearing up enough for companies to spend more on cloud computing? what's the growth in product versus the higher margin services business, and part of the outlook, last time around, was on currency head winds so what does it look like now?

as for what to expect on the trade, options right now pricing in at 7% up or down. so it could be a volatile one. >> this feels like the under the radar stalwart game i'm guessing you're a fan, although it is down 20% over the past year. >> sure, and for good reason i.t. spending at the corporate level has been soft. netapp serves a purpose that people don't probably understand they can have blended hybrid data for the companies that need this data but also off load it onto the cloud that's what their secret sauce is i think this world is going to exist for quite some time. they're very good at operating in hetero genius environments i'm a long-term investor, so company also create data and

have to store it >> and 12 times forward for your buddy netapp over there. great stuff, thank you both. we'll hear from all three companies as mentioned we want to correct something, we reported it was a csx train that derailed in ohio. it was a norfolk southern one. given the strong backlash, could this be the first to walk back that policy the latest on amazon's return to office rift, next. u mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

welcome back amazon joining the ranks of google, apple, disney and probably most of your employers, announcing a return-to-office mandate for employees. ceo andy jackson staying staffers will need to be in office three days a week starting may 1, and that has prompted significant backlash. andi palmer is here now to discuss. welcome. so, i mean, this hardly sounds draconian, but this is a huge rebellion taking place >> yeah. so employees have not received

this mandate very well they are sending a petition around, urging amazon's top executives to drop this mandate. >> has there been similar discontent elsewhere that just hasn't rippled up quite so much or something about amazon in particular that has people really hostile about this idea >> yeah, i think with amazon, they have such a large workforce, 1.6 million people worldwide, and they went through this huge hiring push during the pandemic, brought in some folks in roles they said were remote now they're walking it back saying hey, we need you to be within, you know, commuting distance an amazon office, which for a lot of people could be different, could be seattle, austin, new york >> if some of these started as remote, i can understand if people were like, this is a bait and switch >> yeah, i think employees are feeling like some people bought homes in distances far away.

one person that we quoted in the story had just taken out a car lease and had certain terms they must meet. so people are feeling like i can just up and leave. >> i guess the power they have over the situation goes back to the strength of the economy and maybe the extent to which they can stay unified and amazon, sure, is going to be looked at and have pressure to not back down here, and to stick with this plan do you get any sense as to whether the ceo might soften his stance or whether he feels quite strongly as others do. >> i think we'll have to see how this sort of rebellion shakes out. previously, before amazon last updated their guidance on return-to-work in 2021, they said hey, everybody come back. employees were pissed off, they walked it back and said it's up to your managers >> it's worth mentioning, some say this is just a bad look,

because your white collar force is revolting when the warehouse workers don't have a choice. >> that's very true and folks pointed that out that warehouse workers and delivery workers were on the frontlines during the pandemic white collar workers were at home and now they're being asked to come back and it sorts may ba little off color >> all right annie, thanks for all your reporting. annie palmer you can read her piece on cnbc.com still ahead shares of travel and leisure co higher today on an earnings beat and full-year guidance they just had a record year for property sales but can that momentum continue we'lta tthcemiael lko e o chl brown right after the break. luxury exemplified. innovation electrified. with apple music seamlessly integrated. the all-new, all-electric eqs suv from mercedes-benz.

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welcome back 2023 is shaping up to be the year of the travel trade, as destinations reopen, demand surges post-pandemic stocks across the industry are surging to start the year. the hotel etf bedz with a z includes marriott, hilton and expedia. it's up nearly 10% the airline index up 11% royal caribbean shares up 45%. airbnb, you know that one, up almost 50% same goes tore travel & leisure co their shares higher on an earnings beat up nearly 13% this year they had record sales volume last year and said reservations and demand are already outpacing that joining us in a first on cnbc interview is ceo michael brown michael, welcome >> good to be back thank you. >> in these i'll just use the phrase timeshares so our audience knows what kind of travel we're talking about

what is driving continued demand for these properties and in what part of the country? >> well, 2022 everyone thought it was going to be pent-up demand post-covid, then it was going to be summer travel, and it just continues into the fall and we're already seeing in the first two months of this year that leisure travel is not showing any signs of waning. last year it was a little more drive to this year it's completely broad-based growth we're seeing tremendous demand for hawaii obviously a mid-haul destination. as well as tennessee, which is clearly a drive-to destination it's really broad-based demand, both drive-to and fly-to destinations >> how sustainable is the demand, do you think >> well, i think covid taught us one thing, is when you're making decisions about where you're going to spend the money you're not going to give up your personal time with your family and friends. you may change how you're going to vacation, but i think the

leisure travel demand trend is here to stay and i think really fueling that growth is this work from anywhere trend that we're seeing where people are -- i heard on your last segment about the hybrid work environment. people are leaving their home on a thursday, getting to their vacation destination, and really extending their length of stay, and we're seeing that at all of our resorts. >> true. so to the extent that -- i hear that story and go wow, people are going back to the office you hear that story and go only three days a week. that's going to be a long-term benefit. is that right? >> well, people are still working when they're away, but you know, it makes a huge difference to your vacation experience if you're getting to your destination thursday evening -- >> totally >> you wake up with a cup of coffee and you're on your e-mail or zoom calls. and as soon as the workday's over on friday you're already with your family and friends in the destination you want to be it makes vacations a lot more enjoyable. and we're seeing that and we're adjusting for that and it's

really benefiting our business along with -- along with the comparable value we're seeing because our owners compared to a hotel stay or a vacation rental stay have never seen the level of value that they're seeing today. >> in some ways i think about the business models, a little bit of an early kind of subscription as a service plan can you speak to that business model and, you know, just kind of the durability of it? as everyone else rushes in to offer kind of everything as a service in this day and age. >> well, in a lot of ways we've been in the subscription or shared space for nearly 50 years. and people ultimately want to vacation in a name that they can trust. and the macro trend we're seeing today, which is -- it's just a lot more enjoyable when a family of four has two bedrooms and a kitchen as opposed to 250 square feet so our business is really

flowing with the macro trends and what we're seeing in inflation has just added not only the space component but you've got the brands and the value component as well that's really fueling growth in our business and like i said in the first question, is we're not seeing any signs of that waning here through the end of february. >> i appreciate you joining us, michael. i want to get out of here, get on a plane and go somewhere warm >> please do >> mike brown, thanks so much for your time today. ceo of travel & leisure. coming up on "power lunch," though, what wall street's been waiting for. more details about the fed divide over rate hikes should they go 50? we're going to get the minutes in just a couple of minutes, actually tyler mathisen getting ready for that i will join you, ty, on the other side of this break

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it is a busy afternoon ahead as we await the minutes from the january meeting of the federal reserve open market committee, a meeting at which the fed raised interest rates by a relatively modest quarter of a point. there's another meeting coming up in a couple of weeks. we will see what happens then. right now the dow is higher by 68 points. let's go now to steve liesman in washington with the fed minutes steve. >> almost all participant at the last january meeting for the federal reserve agreed on the 25 basis-point rate hike. ongoing rate increases were seen as appropriate by all members of the participants in the federal market committee 25 basis point hikes were seen as allowing the fed to assess the economy and the impact of rate hikes as they went along. however, a few wanted to raise by 50 basis points in common fedspeak, a few is more than two. so there may be be another person or appears to be another person out there other than the two of whom we know, bullard and mester, who wanted to go 50. they wanted to go 50 because th