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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  February 23, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EST

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it >> karen >> the new game you have forgotten the name of, would you rather one-year t-bills that's my final trade. >> dan >> in the face guy >> in the face >> i wouldn't be chasing this one at 80. >> guy >> apa corp., melissa lee. >> all right thanks for "fast." see you back tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. >> there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job not just to entertain but to educate and teach call me 1-800-743-cnbc tweet me @jimcramer. look, when the ceo of jpmorgan, the world's largest bank, says there is scary stuff ahead,
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well, guess what you take notice. when jamie dimon reels them off. russia, ukraine, oil, gas, war, migration, trade china, not to mention the possibility of 6% interest rates, that's what he's talking about, because of persistent inflation, you get scared and the market plunges right on time although fortunately for the bulls the fear eventually subsided dow ultimately finishing up 109 points s&p advancing .53% nasdaq jumping .72%. i told you the stocks would find its footing when stocks came down enough and long-term interest rates started falling that's what really happened. it's why the averages ultimately turned that said i still think it makes sense to do some selling in certain select areas, especially the techs and the fintechs and spacs with crazy valuation sxwz no real earnings but beyond raising some cash
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after a bad couple weeks stocks get cheaper, right they start pricing in some of the negatives. quh dimon talks about the war in ukraine, high inflation, it's not like these are new worries he with went over a lot of this with him, as you'll see later tonight, i came away short-bearish on events in washington but totally bullish on the events at 52nd and market in philadelphia the under watching street we visited with jamie where he put up a new chase branch -- it's really a community center. it's much bigger than a branch many times during our interview earlier, it was on the "halftime report" and later on the show, i found myself thinking who cares about where the fed funds rate is if chase can help pull up an underprivileged neighborhood, maybe we're in a much better place than wall street's willing to believe but you know there's a problem with that thinking the resurgence of a gritty west philly neighborhood as exciting as it is to this hometown guy doesn't propel the s&p 500 higher because the market just
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doesn't care you have to wonder how aggressive any banker can be if they believe the fed will take rates sky high in order to kill inflation. then again, dimon's my age we cut our teeth on 19% interest rates in the early '80s and we did pretty darn well for our customers. maybe the he fed funds rate's going to 6% and it won't be the end of the world at the same time there are always cycles that are somewhat immune to the day-to-day macroeconomic news anything with exposure to these cycles may be worth buying >> buy buy buy >> dimon mentioned the agricultural sector, for instance that's on fire you know i like deere. he talked about our amazing oil and gas profile, which is why i like halliburton for the charitable trust even if crude goes nowhere the oil service guys stand to make a killing because producers need to spend fortunes on drilling just to keep production stable and he talked about tech especially tech that powers, yes, machine learning. like the artificial intelligence
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that helps jpmorgan engage with its customers, detect fraud along with many other mundane tasks even related to trading. in other words, without mentioning its name, he's actually talking about nvidia, which shot up 14% today thanks to some great numbers last night. management sees more orders from the data center. that's a big change. they see a semiconductor glut in gaming ending. that's a big change. and they're dhoochbt artificial intelligence has gone mainstream thanks to the popularity of chatgpt. and that's all fantastic for nvidia remember, nvidia spent years developing this exact technology, accelerated computing. and now they have a gigantic lead on the competition in what could be a $600 billion brand new market that didn't even exist pretty much a year ago ceo jansen wong, been on the show a bunch of times, compared the breakdown of accelerated computing. you've got to pay attention to what he's saying that's why i told everyone on the conference call.
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the breakdown he compared to internet going mainstream, rise of the smartphone, rise of the personal computer and nvidia has the kind of dominance with ai intel used to have with the pc they backly are the only game in town they are ai. no wonder management can't mention the demand because it's practically endless. a ton of tech stocks ended up running on nvidia's positive quarter but that is plain laughable. it was like when we saw -- the whole point is nvidia's running circles around the competition no one is near them. what's good for them might not be good for anybody else so where does it leave us? bottom line, we've got a schizophrenic market where each local surge of hope gets squashed by the next national or international fear, which gives way to another round of hope and sometimes all in one day manuel in illinois >> caller: yes, jim, i have a question on stz.
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i listened to the conference call, do my own homework like you tell me. the only positive thing i heard from that conference call was they were trying to divest the canadian portion of the weed business i just want your thoughts. >> well, look, constellation brands as i tell many people because we owned it for a long time for the charitable trust, and we'll be going over it buying at saturday's big shindig just for investing club members. this is a cash flow story. beer generates huge amount of cash for that they can do anything, buy back stock, they can increase the dividend. i'm in it for the long haul. that's the only way to view beer and don't forget, beer does quite well in a recession. jack in ohio jack jack speak to me. >> caller: hey, thanks for taking my call, jimmy. >> of course, jack what's shaking >> caller: hey, energy's on a pullback out of emb and pxd i was going to stay with devon, ddn. >> i was disappointed with devon. they did not do the number
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it caused me to shudder, frankly, because rick moncrief needs to come on and tell us what went wrong. there's got to be something because the other oil companies did not see that coming. and i want to know more about it because boy, did it ever wreck my day when it happened. more than my day actually, like three days. actually, like now this market is schizophrenic and each local surge of hope gets squashed by the next national fear, which gives way to another round of hope sometimes all on the same day like today "mad money" tonight wall street burned papa john after earnings. so are investors getting a buying opportunity in a pizza chain that simply has had a great hot streak i'm checking in with the ceo then worried about a slowdown? i'm sitting with pg&e, the giant california utility could be a strong defensive addition to your portfolio sit down with top brass. and earlier i had a chance to talk to jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon as the company owned a terrific community branch in my own town of philadelphia. you do not want to miss it
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>> that's kind of new. >> it will surprise people, yeah >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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although papa john's held up better it was still down 6%. what's going on here these guys actually delivered a ginn top and bottom line beat for the quarter, just that wall street was terrified by the disappointing north american same-store sales numbers forget that international same-store sales were strong though i want to know more about the uk at the same time management's full-year forecast was i'd call it a bit guarded now i'm worning whether this is a buying opportunity or abandon my long love of the pizza place. let's take a closer look with rob lynch the president and ceo of papa john's international to learn more about the quarter and where the company is headed. mr. lynch, welcome back to "mad money. >> hi, jim great to be here and i would argue there's no bad pizza, just so you know. >> that's fair but here's what i really want to know you had the misfortune of reporting the same day as domino's, which was admittedly disappointing. when i go over and over the numbers i'm going to use a term that you're going to have to explain to the public. you achieved a 30.1 three-year stack comp that outperformed
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peers. wall street knows what that means. can you explain to people what a stack means and therefore why your numbers were pretty good because of the stack >> sure. the last two years, '20 and '21 were the two highest sales years in our company's history two record years where we continued to outperform both the competition and even our internal expectations. so there was a lot of discussion back then on whether or not we were a pandemic company, that all of our growth was coming just because of the shelter in place rules and the concerns around the pandemic and people not going out. last year despite coming out of the pandemic we were able to continue to lap positive, continue to be able to grow. that 30% is is a compilation of 2020, 2021 and 2022 growing 30% means we grew on average 10% a year which i think we're really happy with >> that's what i think people really need to know, which is why i think the stock's decline was overdone
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there was a concern the forecast was a little more tepid, sometimes you're more aggressive, worried about same-store sales in the u.s. can you reassure us the headline numbers which were so critical of you may have been misplaced >> so we guided today, a long-range guide for 2% to 4% comp sales in north america on an ongoing basis we believe that we can deliver in 2023 between 2% to 3% on top of this continued growth that would be four straight years of comp sales growth the only player in the pizza industry to be able to do that and we believe we can do that because we've got the right plan to get us through what continues to be a challenging macroeconomic environment, geopolitical environment we've got great innovation coming this year that's going to contribute to those sales. we're improving our operations, increasing customer satisfaction our teams are doing all the right things for the long term and that's why we feel really bullish about our ability to outperform again in 2023
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les talk about the improving customer satisfaction. at one point in your conference call you talked about how you got the time from the store, from 30 minutes down to 20 minutes. now, is that because you're using aggregators and you're not having to wait and find more labor, which we know is very hard, yourself >> that's definitely a part of it we're always seeking to find the best solutions to meet our customers' needs three years ago, 3 1/2 years ago when i got here to papa john's we made the strategic decision to invest in partnership with third-party delivery providers and over the course of the pandemic that's really helped us out. there's bhn a lot of talk about the labor shortages, the staffing shortages and we've been able to lean into those partnerships to be able to supplement our labor pool especially during our peak periods on friday and saturday night. optimizing that is one facet of why we've been able to improve our operating efficiencies but i'll also tell you we brought in new leadership we've got people really focused
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on the core things that drive our business and we're measuring those things on a daily basis, working with our general managers to make sure they're incorporating those procedures you think about the pandemic, jim, we were trying to keep everybody says, we were doing our best to keep those stores open and in doing that you start to lose maybe some of your operating discipline we're returning all that back to the restaurants and we're starting to see some real improvement in customer satisfaction as a result >> people tell me jim, you've got to worry more about the commodity costs. i come back and i say the innovation's trumping the commodity cost and you don't need to worry. what do you think about that analysis >> i don't know that they're mutually exclusive i worry about commodity costs. i did especially in 2022 that was the toughest year of my career you know, we saw over 40% inflation in our commodities during the course of 2022. it's tough to price for 40% cost increases. we've been working hard to make sure that we're, you know, doing everything we can to be as
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productive and efficient as possible but heading into 2023 we do see some easing there. we're already starting to see some easing there on some of the big costs that go into our food like cheese and wheat. but we're also really focused on the innovation right? i mean, the innovation is about bringing in new customers and introducing them to papa john's and experiencing our premium products it is a balance. we're trying to make sure that our restaurants still make money and make sure our franchisees are supported. but we've got to make sure that we're also bringing in new customers with all that premium innovation >> rob, what are you doing with the idea that you can get machines now that sound just like humans, as he we know, this is the chatgpt, also nvidia phenomenon have you looked at it or is it just not needed? >> yeah, i mean, we've always been a big technology company. we consider ourselves an e-commerce company 85% of our orders do come across
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digital channels he we were the first brand back in 2001 to launch online ordering and so we are always xwlorg ways we can be more efficient, make sure -- and investments we can make to leverage technology to be more efficient. right now the gpt and some of the other ai that's taking orders doesn't necessarily meet our standards. but we'll continue to explore ways that we can invest to do that >> well, look, i just think that if you had reported, say, next monday i think people would say oh, pretty good numbers. i'm not kidding, rob you know i know stocks, you know pizza. this was a good number thank you to rob lynch, president and ceo of papa johns. always good to see you, sir. thank you. >> thanks, jim >> all right "mad money's" back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, utilities have to deal with headwinds. literally. what's it mean for a stock that's fighting to keep the heat on for thousands stick with cramer.
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if you're worried about a fed mandated recession, maybe you should have focused on today's earnings report from pg&e that's that northern california utility we like so much we recommend it as a turnaround play the utilities are textbook slowdown stocks while the actual results for the quarter came up a tad short management reiterated their full-year forecast and that's all we care about. i think this is a case where you need to zoom out, look at the big picture. pg&e hit its target of 10% earnings growth last year and today they confirmed they're on track to do 10% again next year. i like this. talking about consistency. if they're able to pull off that kind of growth it would make it maybe the most attractive utility out there. let's check in with patty poppe. she's the turnaround artist and ceo of pg&e. to get a better sense of the story. miss poppe, plan to madmoney
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>> well, mr. cramer, great to be with you >> thank you, patty. how do you mitigate financial risk and mitigate and what you did this year? >> we're making massive progress on he both of those things obviously physical rhys sak a key enabler to our long-term success. we reduced our number of acres burned by 99%. we've layered in all sorts of wildfire safety mitigation so that is definitely on track and ahead of plan. and financial risk as you said it, consistency in the utility is the name of the game. and that's the game we're winning. we delivered exactly what we said we could deliver and we've obviously, as you mentioned, reaffirmed our guidance for 2023 up 10% at the mid-point of our range, $1.19 to $1.23. >> why can't other ceos have a no more no less philosophy >> it's a winning one for utilities, i have to tell you. i don't know why more people don't employ it. number one, it allows us when we
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are having a successful year, we redeploy dollars back in to the benefit of customers we deliver what we said we were going to deliver but we also, when we have trouble, we have the muscle that we use to get back on plan and we showed on our call today two-year track record and we can't wait till that's many, many more years of track record to talk about. >> so i know that the worst storms actually occurred at the end of the year through the first two weeks of january that does not knock you off your plan at all for 2023 >> it sure doesn't our team is at our best when we are put to the test. and we certainly were put to the test in back-to-back to back-to-back to back-to-back atmosphere eck rivers. that's like multiple hurricanes one on top of the other. and we had 2.8 million customers impacted all of them restored within 24 hours. it was an extraordinary performance by our team and all of our partners across the state and across the nation. we really delivered. and it does not affect our year-end plan for 2023
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>> obviously, someone likes you in washington. maybe secretary granholm because you did get $1.1 billion for diablo canyon. was that a windfall or was that something that you banked on >> well, we knew that there was a lot of support for diablo canyon and it's one of the highest performing nuclear power plants in the nation and the state and the federal government agreed with us and they're really supporting the extension of that plant with the funding from the d.o.e >> i wanted to ask you, yesterday gavin newsom, the governor, and elon musk got together and elon wants to come back and do some things in california he could not have done that without first checking with pg&e or be being sure that the lines are hardened any interaction with elon? >> we have a lot of interaction with elon and the whole tesla team in fact, they did 182 megawatt battery storage facility with us, which is to the benefit of the people of california in fact, i let elon know last
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night we were happy to have him back home. >> you talked to elon. like one on one? >> well, we do a lot of business together and so i'm always wanting to support our customers, and he's a big one of ours. >> see, i'm tempted to ask you what he's like but i have to get back to the idea of maybe buying your stock, which brings me to the notion of what i'm most worried about even though i shouldn't be, which is the victims trust. now you're down to about what, 100 -- i was looking at the last one. you've still got about 150 million more shares. so i have an idea. why can't you put together -- i'm not kidding. why can't you put together a buying group and get this done >> well, it's up to the fire victims trust. and their board. they determine when and how they sell they've sold about 60% of their holdings and look, we are aligned with the fire victims trust when we succeed, that enables them to deliver for their trust and beneficiaries faster so our goal is to make the system safer, faster when we win, the trust is able
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to do their job faster >> well, i agree with that, but they have 187 million shares to go i don't know whether they want to hold any -- it doesn't seem like the trust charter allows them to. but if they do 50 million, 50 million, 50 million and clean up with another 37 million your stock may still be at 15 because you're not going to put a dividend in place yet. >> well, in fact, we talked about that on our call today we're talking about timing of reinstating our dividend >> right >> the most important thing that we're focused on is delivering to make you are o'system safer faster that's our capital growth. he we talked about a 9.5% rate-based growth over the coming years we intend to invest that capital in the kind of infrastructure that our customers deserve and really are supportive of and that enables us then to have the kind of growth that's industry leading and he with want that industry-leading growth to make the system safer for customers, and then the fire victims trust can do what they're going to do.
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and i agree with you i think it's -- it's in their interest to make sure that they get the disbursements done and when we're performing like we are that enables them to do it >> i couldn't agree mores particularly because the thing i was most worried about was undergrounding wildfire mitigation, if those are solved then it seems to me that it's pretty clear sailing from here >> there's two things to remember about our fire mitigation one, undergrounding is definitely the long-term plan. and we have -- we'll be filing a plan this year it's an important catalyst i would suggest for investors. we're going to be filing our ten-year undergrounding plan that has unit costs and is enabled by legislation that was passed last year but the second thing, we implemented some new technologies last year that were very effective our enhanced power line safety settings that is what enabled us to reduce our acres burned by 99% today we don't have to wait for undergrounding to be finished. so that's the best economic
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forward plan >> i've got to tell you, i like this stock the overhang will be solved by the time i speak to you next zprks what a great quarter, and how great it is to have a no more no less attitude. patti poppe, ceo of pg&e corporation. great to see you again >> great to see you, jim >> all right "mad money's" back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, cramer sits down with jamie dimon for an interview you won't want to miss >> you forgot the fed. >> it makes no difference to me. we've been opening branches, hiring bankers, building technology nonstop
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earlier i got a chance to speak with jamie dimon, the chairman and ceo of
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jpmorganchase and his new community center right in west philadelphia where they're doing great work serving an underbanked community. we had a great discussion. it aired live at noon which you can watch online if you missed it but afterwards we had a few more minutes with jamie that you haven't seen so i want you to take a look right now. >> jamie, i saw a smile this morning and it's a smile that reminds me who you are you're a banker trying to get business for jpmorgan but also change a neighborhood. is that why you're here at 52nd in philadelphia? >> look, we love philadelphia. we now have 50 branches here, on our way to 80. i was so happy to join this in the community branch we got to see in action. our people were happy, how proud we are of them >> individual banking -- >> and that one story about khalif, who go that that nikka who i gave a big hug. sxhe called him every single day. they rented the place for 25 years. that's changing the world, that
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one thing. things we didn't mention is we got rid of college degree required for a lot of jobs we use the community branch, we hire local people, local vendors for food it was a black construction company that reconstructed the branch we bring in small businesses, we give them advice we had 60 events there already teaching people how to save money, how to start a business, how to do a mortgage and stuff like that. it warms our heart and i mentioned when i was there that, you know, a lot of our people i tell them you didn't get your job because your brain and your work ethic which was part of it you got your job because you have a heart and you care about people, whether it's your employees or the person who walks in the front door of that branch >> and a discriminated neighborhood that was at one point as you mentioned a red line neighborhood >> we were trying to do things to reverse all the heritage of red lining including doing things like including rent, which is not included in fico scores, so you can be paying rent for 20 years it's not included but using alternative like to
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make more than you might otherwise make >> wells fargo lays off a lot of mortgage bankers is this the right time to expand a bank to give mortgages >> yeah, so we have expansion plans which we just do nonstop >> but the fed, the fed, the fed. you forgot the fed >> it makes no difference to me. we're going to open branches, hire bankers, build technology nonstop. that's what we do. the mortgage business is a very tough business so if you say it's a business matter, that is true so i'm very sympathetic to what charlie's going through. very tough regulatory, very tough legal. the profit margins move all over the place. so a lot of people are making different decisions. you've probably seen that 80% of the mortgage business is out of banks now. and that's kind of unfortunate >> now, i often struggle when i listen to you to think about, well, is the government an impediment is the fed an impediment or are these actually trying to help things to make them better? >> the fed has to do what they think is the right thing to do >> but you talk to them. they're not doing what you think. >> they kind of are.
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we all know they were probably late and their models didn't really work and inflation got out of control then they quickly caught up. so they'll pause at one point, lower 5% whether it's enough or not we don't know and i don't think it will be be. i think inflation will come down but maybe by the the end of the year you've got to do a little bit more but remember, inflation could be far worse than a mild recession. and they've got to figure out what's the right thing for the long run, not just what's the right thing for next year or something like that. we all want them to do as well as they can. >> but i still do not hear you say there will not be a recession. i still hear you say it could be a hard landing i'm not getting away from that >> yeah. you can't avoid -- i look at the world as possibilities and probabilities. there's still a chance for a soft landing or no landing. there's still a chance for hand l a hard landing and a chance for other because of russia, oil, gas, migration,
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china, trade i'll also point out we never had qt before. the later parts may be a little harder i expect that will cause a lot of volatility in the markets at one point. >> your bank is probably -- people don't know this but your bank has the best asian desk you've had unbelievable relations with china did it have to go as awry as it is >> no. but i think covid set everyone way back where people didn't talk and they didn't relate to each other i think russia showed the world that the world is not safe -- not completely safe for western democracy and you need american leadership that can coalesce the western world. what you have today is a lot of countries around the world trying to pick and choose between who they're going to ally with, who they want to trade with we've got to put trade back on the table. i travel around the world and a lot of countries are if you're not going to trade with us and china's going to walk in here, so we need diplomacy, economic strategy, trade, very thoughtfully done with allies, and then private negotiations with china
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i think we're doing a lot of the right stuff around national security i think that's a sine quanon-. >> experienced banker. 67 can't be at jpmorgan forever people running for president are in their 80s why not jamie? >> i've never been a politician. >> maybe that's what we need >> i would love to be anointed president. but you have to win. you have to run. >> now, where are he we as a country? where do we stand? natural resources are great but our leadership is paralyzed because we have so many people in washington who hate each other. >> i wouldn't be that dramatic about it >> okay. >> if you look at the history of america we've been through tough times. revolutionary war, civil war, world war i, depression, world war ii, and a lot of things past that and so huge resiliency, which warren buffett always talks about. the way americans should think about it is we're the most process plous nation on the planet i'm going to contrast this with china to put it in perspective 75,000 per person gdp there
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versus 13 there. we have all the food water and energy we need the gifts of the found fathers, freedom of speechl, freedom of religion, freedom of enterprise, freedom of capital you can do what you want with yourself you can start businesses, you can invest in things >> on 5 2nd street >> there's not been an equal opportunity for people to get capital. >> we've done a terrible job lifting up the bottom 20% of society. >> the government or the banks zm are you taking leadership because the government has failed so many people. >> i think every institution should do something to help. hire people, train people, open this community branch. but we reece need to get with the government we need good effective competent government a lot of policies backfire but we need the inner city schools to get these kids ready to work. we got rid of -- college would be required but we need the schools to work. we need zoning if you want more affordable housing, very often it's zoning. we need immigration policy -- >> are you telling me that you would lend credit -- give credit and your bank has enough savings
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and people have enough savings that if we just were kind of prometheus on down when it comes to the economy we'd be doing much better? >> i think so. i think we hold ourselves back because we don't have really effective public policy around regulations, taxation, immigration -- >> is the consumer -- despite this >> american consumer's in fabulous shape today >> what's the uncertainty here i mean, yes he, ukraine. but you've given -- >> they're spending 40% more than precovid. they have a trillion and a half, something like that, left in their check accounts more than they had precovid. jobs are plentiful wages going up >> millennials are going to -- is care gsquare going to beat yu >> no. they're not -- >> i'm baiting you you're supposed to take the bait >> i said no they're not going to beat us money is being spent down now. we think sometime by the end of the year it will be zero excess balances and it's being eroded by inflation. you can look at that and say well, at the end of that you'll
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have a little bit of a dip but maybe not. if we go to a recession the consumer's in better shape because unlike '08 and '09 mortgages are well underwritten. even though people say my credit card debt, it's just normalizing. >> then the fed with its method of 5 1/2, 6, is not going to solve the inflation you were just talking about >> my view is they're going to go a little higher >> higher than 6 >> yeah. possibly >> higher than 6 a lot of people are -- >> when you and i grew up, when i graduated school prime was 21 1/2%. things change. there's been a big -- >> buying treasuries at 14 >> yeah. i still wouldn't buy treasuries today. >> okay. north of 6 would be news that's kind of news. >> that would surprise people, yeah >> you don't want to take that one -- mortgages are doing terrible as it is. >> i'm not saying it's going to do that. >> you did say -- >> i smkt they'll have to go a little higher than the 5. >> the country's not ready for that >> well, things happen
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>> layoffs -- unemployment goes to 5% at that rate >> it could, yeah. >> we go back to 5%. >> but it could be -- again, if you're in the government what you really want is the best long-term outcome. inflation is so insidious that that can damage growth for ten years. they're trying to do the right thing. >> okay. so it's homes, it's food, it's wages. you have no control over food but you talked about positive ag homes it doesn't seem to matter. they don't build enough top so homes keep going up in price it's a supply-demand issue >> well, they're down 10% from the peak >> yes >> and we need to supply more homes. affordable housing and all that we need more you're absolutely correct. we're not building enough to keep up with the population. that's a good sign for the future of the economy. >> but the wages are only going to stabilize if enough businesses including ones that use jpmorgan fail. >> i don't think you need failure, but when you have a recession companies fail but hopefully that won't happen. >> can i leave on artificial intelligence, something more
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positive everybody thinks nvidia, it's all new. you guys have used artificial intelligence throughout. you've been able to catch fraud. you've been able to get rid of jobs that are very difficult where people are actually talking to machines and they don't know it. did you convene a meeting on this have you convened a meeting on accelerated computing? >> all the time. i wrote about it years ago we actually hired manuel velosa who ran carnegie mellon. we have 100 people in research a.i. we have thousands in data scientist, machine learning, data folks and stuff like that we run i think about 300 ai programs >> so you weren't surprise bid chatgpt? >> no, we were already doing stuff like that. >> should the fed -- would they be better at their job if they were just plugging it in, should rates be at 6? >> i don't think chatgpt can figure it out quite yet. >> it sounds like your ai could. >> we use it for risk fraud marketing prospecting. we move $10 trillion around the
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world. zip zap and as we speak. but it's running through ai systems to make sure is it going to the right place, what are the patterns, what's the voice recognition -- >> is 4% on the ten-year the right place to be? isn't that ridiculously low? >> i think it's a little low, yeah np. >> a little low. and you catch it it's very low. >> yeah. >> and capital markets dry up. when are we going to see those numbers get better >> soon. >> nobody cares. they think there's going to be -- net interest income is going to be great but people are worried about bad loans. i'm not seeing or hearing from you that there's a lot of defaults >> i don't expect a lot. if you have a recession my view is you have what i consider a normal credit cycle. losses will go up and wages quite predictable in a recession. unlike what happened in '08 and '09. >> but we can't necessarily break an economy with 8% if many people are buying their homes with cash, if there aren't enough homes i've been trying to figure out what's going to go, what goes under or what stops to head off inflation? >> i think the banking system's in fabulous shape. >> yes >> consumer --
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>> the consumer is the best ever the best you've seen as a banker >> pretty much >> since 2005 is it the best >> great much, yeah. >> why am i so worried >> i'm not worried about the normal economic cycle. i would only worry about the abnormal stuff like the war in ukraine, oil and gas -- >> you want to get existential -- 52nd and market you're not worried about 52nd and market >> no. >> i like that that's a good place to leave it. jamie dimon, chairman and ceo of jpmorgan thank you. >> pleasure. >> announcer: coming up, cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it's a fast-fire "lightning round. next
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it is time it's time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money. play until you hear this sound and then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." let's start with ken in pennsylvania ken! >> caller: hey, boo-yah, mr. cramer how are you doing? >> i'm doing well. my dad's name was ken, and i met someone who worked with dad from jpmorgan today for to y20 yearsa dad's banker how can i help >> caller: that's awesome. i'm inquiring about core civic held it for many years used to pay a nice dividend. that went away a couple of years ago. was wondering if i should hold on to that -- >> i was worried, when the dividend went away i said go away i'm standing by my position. and i thank you for the call shawn in arizona shawn. >> caller: yeah, thanks, jim,
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for taking my call how are you doing there? >> of course i am doing well, thank you how about you? >> caller: great first things first we love your mezcal out here. we were drinking that throughout the weekend. just fantastic we love it >> i'll tell my wife it's her business. thank you. >> caller: you got it. i've got a stock i've been meaning to ask you about warren buffett buying this one and you've got steven spielberg praising tom cruise for saving cinema with "top gun: maverick." what do you any about paramount global, jim? >> i wish with weren't up 40% for the year because i agree with you, if it comes down don't read unscripted, you might change your mind. it comes down then i say -- >> buy buy buy >> let's go to robert in texas robert >> caller: hi, jim thank you for everything you do for us what do you think of -- >> thank you >> caller: -- clear secure, ticker -- >> my wife asked me that the other day because we always like to get in front of the line that clear secure does that if they pivot and actually make the money they say they're going to make for this year i say buy. but i don't like companies that
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are losing money, which is most definitely what they are doing okay now we're going to go to lucas in minnesota lucas! >> caller: hey, jim cramer thanks for taking our call and helping us home gamers out i was out -- >> thank you >> caller: the snow that we got last night wondering about spring break so what do you feel about booking.com? >> i like travel i like their numbers this very evening. i've been recommending travel stocks and staying away from the wayfairs i'm sticking by my view. i think you've got a winner. bookings let's go to craig in colorado. craig! >> caller: hey, j.c., man, thank you for taking my call you're my number one disciple, man -- i have a sleeves rolled up for a company called -- >> keep them rolled up but don't pull the trigger we don't like stocks that aren't making money on "mad money." and that, ladies and gentlemen,
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is the conclusion of the "lightning round"! >> announcer: the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade coming up, is market confidence in jay powell too material to measure? cramer tunes out the noise and checks out the charts. next
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a couple weeks ago wall street was incredibly confident the federal reserve could cool down inflation without doing too much damage to the economy since then the conventional wisdom has turned on a dime. now everybody's convinced business is too strong and inflation is too sticky so the fed will have to keep hitting us with a ruthless series of rate hikes that drags everything down that's what drove the kneltdown over the past week but what if we're reading too much into the data maybe the economy's improving while inflation is falling and that's a good thing, you don't need to overthink it not reply tang but it is the latest contrarian call from larry williams the legendary technician and market historian who's been the top expert in the space since before i learned to drive. larry's written over as to books and creative created aw host of his own proprietary technical
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indicators which you can find on his website which is called ireallytrade.com more importantly he's racked up an incredible track record on this show. that includes calling the covid bottom he also told you the nfl would be a little turbulent. after this morning's carnage williams, guess what, he's feeling bullish about the stock market bunch of reasons federal reserve bank of chicago released their national activity index which measures overall activity along with inflationary pressures. business picked up substantially last month, up .23 in january. a huge increase from down .46 in december williams thinks this is a strong indication the economy is picking. you personal consumption and housing rose from .06 to plus -- i'm sorry, minus .06 to plus .13. that's an amazing change i didn't hear about either of these two numbers at all today shame. more importantly, check out the
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chart of the chicago fed diffusion index going back nearly two decades this is another way of measuring the national activity index data according to wlier it is a very good leading indicator of recessions. it turned negative in 2007, nice call, before going extremely negative in 2008, even better. it turned incredibly negative again in early 2020 as covid hit. but at the moment williams points out that it's still well above the level that's associated with severe slowdowns. of course maybe you look at it and say yeah, that's a problem, the economy's too strong, which means more inflation and more need for ruinous rate hikes. williams disagrees rather than extrapolating from every data point he recommends looking at the new york fed's underlying inflation gauge, which is pretty self-explanatory check out this chart of the full uig in blue, the red and the index in gold. very simply inflation clearly peaked late last year. this is cut and dry.
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even if it isn't falling as fast as we'd like it it's still decelerating big-time year over year as williams sees it this is indeed a goldilox scenario the economy's bet getting better while inflation's still cooling. what could you ask for at the same time he's looking at averages searching for cycles that tend to repeat over and over again right now he likes what he sees take a look at the weekly chart of the s&p 500 his cycle forecast, well, it's in red. okay based on the cycle forecast the sell-off in the s&p should be almost over with a comeback rally about to begin williams is betting the national rally -- the s&p will break out of the down trend lines that all the bears are focusing on at which point they'll capitulate cover the short position and go back to their caves. i know it's very out of step with the prevailing view at the moment but let's keep in mind this is a market with insane mood swings a couple weeks ago stocks traded like everything was great. now the action says we're looking at a severe fed-orchestrated recession i don't know if larry's right to go as bullish here although boy, would i love that. but i do know this market tends
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to overcorrect so after a couple of bad weeks it wouldn't surprise me if all if things turned positive again just when no one, and i mean no one, is looking for it so buckle up and be prepared for some potential whiplash i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money. i'm jim cramer see you tomorrow r and ceo of smt apparel brand good american and founding partner of skims, returns to the tank. grede: you can spend the next few years trying to accelerate this business, or you can work with me and do it a hell of a lot quicker. what about me? am i chopped liver? precious gold, sharks. -[ gasps ] -you're nuts. my parents, they migrated to this country with nothing. the fact that their son is here today is huge. you've demonstrated every bit that you are an entrepreneur. somebody could make this at home, but they're not going to want to. -oh. -oh, wow. don't panic. ♪♪

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