sort of an environment for crypto as well as the nasdaq i don't know i think four days was fine this week >> yeah. we had a lot of news to do today. >> right, but do we need -- are you coming in monday >> i will see you monday >> you'll be here monday >> you're going to see me here on monday? i think becky is going to be here on monday >> we'll all be here on monday, i guess, although it seemed fine this past week make sure you join us on monday. "squawk on the street" is in the case ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange david faber has the morning off. stocks are adding to a third weekly loss as the data again comes in hot, core pce, highest annual rate since october, personal spending, best monthly gain in almost two years our road map is going to start with inflation still running warm, the fed's favorite pce gauge accelerates in january

the consumer is holding strong executives from booking, livenation, cinemark, all four casting a pretty strong year and then there's warner. discovery's ceo, david zaslav says his growth strategy is "working. let's begin, though, with the market reaction to the approximate, ce inflation data we're going to listen to what jamie dimon told you yesterday, but a lot of the data fits exactly with what he told you. >> we had a very strong month in this country in january. did they list it yearly at toll brothers how about lennar things are really good when you look at bookings numbers, it's incredible livenation is big. we had a spending month. it was like the nation splurged, hiring just okay, but in terms of consumption, i mean, it was almost as if tightening's over and now people are back. and i don't really know what to do with it other than to say maybe we just have to pay less for the s&p, because that's what -- this number says it

can't last they're not going to let you -- this country have a level of inflation that would make it so that people spend as much as they're doing. january was probably the strongest month, i don't know, since covid. >> yeah. well, we -- when that january jobs number came out, we had a lot of folks say, brace yourselves brace yourselves for warm data, whether that's weather-related or not >> the cost of your heating, your regular big, has gone down a lot. i just keep going back to what doug yearly said, even that guy at papa john's, once january started softening, things got aggressively better. everybody had -- all the companies i deal with had great januarys, and to think that this pce number would be weak is -- it flies in the face of everything that the big companies said would happen. so, i'm not saying it's business as usual, but if you're american airlines, you're saying, what'd you think? january was a full-flight month. no, it was an extremely

full-flight month. this was a one-carryon month, okay that's the way you have to view it therefore, i think that the natural progression is, if you're paying 18 times earnings for the s&p, you got to maybe say, listen, 17. maybe 16 get the s&p down now, earlier this week, i put out a checklist. we haven't met any of the checklist. >> on the other hand, i know you pay some attention to technicians, and they're all saying, down trend lines, uptrend lines, 50-day, 200-day are not much farther south than we are right now >> that's what i struggle with i had larry williams on last night, and he's the oldest and i think the best, very historical. he's saying, we're at the tail end of this decline. but maybe that means today, monday, tuesday, and then we get bullish as this awful month ends i don't think february is nearly as strong as january but there was nothing -- i struggle to find someone other

than maybe carvana, maybe wayfair, that had a really bad january. >> carvana revenue down. we mentioned jamie dimon, and yesterday, jim sits down with the head of jpmorgan chase in philadelphia and kind of brought into sharp relief sort of the figures that we were getting day after day, especially this week. take a listen. >> if we go into recession, the consumer's in better shape because unlike '08 and '09, mortgage is really underwritten, my credit card debt is normalizing. >> the fed, with its method, 5.5 or 6 is not going to solve the inflation problem that you're talking about. >> my view is they might have to go a little bit higher >> higher than 6%? >> possibly. i'm not saying it's going to do that >> you did say it's going to do that >> i suspect it may have to go a little bit higher than the 5%. >> the country's not ready for that >> well, that's -- things

happen >> layoffs -- unemployment goes to 5%. >> it could. >> we go back to 5%. >> but it could be, again, if you're in the government, what you really want is the best long-term outcome. inflation is so insidious that that could damage growth for ten years, so they're trying to do the right thing. >> that was the headline coming out of it, in addition to the fact that he said it could be worse than a mild recession. >> right i mean, look, he is really a believer that we're having a major problem with inflation and it's not been tamed. there are moments -- jamie dimon is, to some degree, he's not a waffler, but he doesn't want to scare anybody. notice he didn't give us a weather forecast i kind of asked him ahead of time, please don't give us one they're too hard but i think he feels, look, he's looking at his book of business, and the consumer that he has more than $3 trillion in assets, and he just says, look, things are too hot. and so, therefore, we shouldn't

take tips off the table. the question is, is 6 on the table, quarter point, quarter point, or is 6% on the table, 50/50, but i think he's still with quarter point, but i think he would love to see things, purchasing power not decline by the american worker. at the same time, he was quite sanguine about business, but maybe that's just because a lot of people -- and i talk to a lot of people ahead of the -- my -- his going to 52nd in market, which is a very underserved area in philadelphia, about whether that's a good thing or whether when you have companies like bank of america closing branches and going digital, and the answer is jamie dimon feels it's a unique time to take advantage of some of the strength, open branches, get people who are having some money to deposit and not just put it, i don't know, in their mattress. this meeting that i had with him yesterday was a bullish within 6% meeting we'll define

at one point, he remembered that we both went into business at the same time, and he said, you know when we started, it was horrible, but we still had a lot of business. and he was talking about fed funds at 19, and i said, listen, i was buying 14-year paper i mean, 14% paper. and he said, yeah. we did fine. me and the customers did fine. >> right >> and i think that's what we have to get used to. it's not the end of the world, but you will pay less for the s&p. that's what we did back then >> you mentioned his book, and there are those who argue he is talking his book i mean, look at this -- >> he's 67 he's done with that stuff. >> this morgan stanley note today calling jpm an underrated rate play and arguing that you could be looking at a trillion dollar market cap in a decade. >> i was talking with him about net interest income and you don't talk about football, you talk about nii, and when is he going to be awarded? he said, not until people realize we do not have bad

loans. we don't write bad loans i said, oh, are they written by chatgpt? he said, fifth time i've heard that he can get tired of the same-sold, same-old but he doesn't see a lot of bad loans he does see the bank making a lot of money on the deposits, but he also knows that people in the end will not pay more for that stream of revenue in the bank if you think that inflation's raging that's how i come back to the, maybe we got to pay less for the earnings, because if inflation's really raging, then i really want, as i am doing right before you came down, trying to get that 5% one-year piece of paper for the money i have sitting around that's getting 3.5% >> yeah. >> and you have to get it. treasuries are saying, buy me, buy me, and you can't say, no, i'm not buying you, i'm buying carvana and wayfair why is the ten-year not above yesterday's highs? >> we think that's wrong

i talked to jamie. we were simpatico on that and the fact that it's fun to be a banker he's got, like, the expletive stuff, i mean, still kind of shocking you're there, and you look around >> he lets it rip. >> and smiling and stuff i'm like, holy cow, i guess i'm old-fashioned. >> you got a lot of fed officials today who are going to get to respond to the data mester was already on "squawk," not prejudging the next meeting but repeating that she could see a case for 50. here's what she told the guys in the morning. >> i haven't really seen much change in my outlook for the economy since that time. so, i see that we're going to have to bring interest rates above 5%, and we'll figure out how much above that's going to depend on how the economy evolves over time, but i do think we need to be somewhat above 5% and hold there for a time in order to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%. >> she did say at least the

markets are now better aligned >> i mean, jamie dimon, ceo of jpmorgan, did not indicate that 5% was enough. he's talking about, when we get to 6%, let me know, then walks that back, because he doesn't want to be, when we get to 6%, i'll see you at your funeral but i feel there's no case for keeping rates anywhere here. i can't make the case. when you have a january where everyone's buying homes, and everyone's shopping their darn head off and going to concerts, thank you for livenation, and everyone's booking, what is going on i mean, who's not spending who's not out there having a great time american express numbers, really good domino's, they didn't have a good month >> concert revenue at livenation is up almost 70% >> even wants front-row seats. the number -- the people going to concerts, but this still is a function of -- well, i loved it

when andrew called it the yolo economy. people want to go out, and they're not stopping, and maybe they won't stop until they lose their darn job >> sounds like you would be willing to accept a 50-basis-point meeting if the point is to get to the terminal. >> amen. >> you sound like bullard now. >> fed officials can go say, i'm going to watch "the last of us" and switch to "your honor" and i've got a lot of new shows coming stop talking they're all a bunch of babbits those were horrible books, by the way, and what a hack he was, but i just look at the stuff and i think, guys, yeah, i get it. it was too strong. what do you want you want to try to get people more worried i mean, as it is, we're going to have some serious layoffs in silicon valley by the way, if anyone listens to jensen huang, i mean, actually listens to him as opposed to just listening to the research, the whole -- the ceo of nvidia -- the whole idea of it is, we just need fewer people at

work >> yeah. >> less waste. fewer people >> bullard this week said the silicon valley layoffs have no bearing on -- >> no bearing at all >> basf and erickson with announcements of layoffs in the thousands. >> but bsf is interesting because western part of germany is very, very strong europe is very -- the town is doing well by the way, natural gas is so low. they've all benefitted but europe's very -- europe is incredibly strong, and they're going to have to keep raising rates. comeback in europe is big. but when you see all the industrials hitting a new high, like josh brown was talking about, not a great sign. nothing slowing. i have train on tonight, not the group, which i saw once at the super bowl they were dynamite >> i remember when they played at our headquarters in fort lee. >> amen. they're fantastic. but when i talk about trane, the hvac company i mean, they can't handle the business i mean, there's another thing. you can't -- they have so much

business, they can't handle it well, at this point in the cycle, actually, we want to hear -- not that we ever want to wish for layoffs, but the fed needs layoffs. the fed needs purchasing power to go down the fed needs people to be a little more concerned and therefore not willing to pay up. and they need the company to stop putting price increases i think that's happening i think walmart is keeping prices down but not enough >> for every walmart, there's a nestle for every walmart, there's, you know, think of the other -- general mills. >> we're putting through our ninth price increase because the people can do it well, one day, blue buff, which is on sale at walmart, and we use blue buff, i'm telling you, we're going to trade down soon because i -- ragu or marley wouldn't know the difference between actual, like -- we give them this food called just food. why do we give them just food? why don't we give them dog food? i've had the just food it's not bad >> they're not going to send it back >> i'm telling you, i paid 12 bucks for a meal at whole foods.

the dogs eat better than i do. i think it's quinoa. >> as david said yesterday, we treat them better than we treat ourselves. >> i know, and that's wrong. i like them, but enough. my dad had a dog named m mm mr. billingsley who wore a bow tie and sat at the dinner table, so i guess i can't complain. we'll hear what david zaslav said about the quarter ahead in the next hour, first on cnbc interview with deputy treasury secretary wally adeyemo. the u.s. and allies imposing a fresh set of sanctions against russia on today, that first anniversary of the country's invasion of ukraine. lot to get through today as we chop more wood with fed eak sp and some data in about 45 minutes. don't go away. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation.

do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. how do we show strength and stability? td ameritrade. (eagle call) a mountain? a tree weathering a storm? (thunder) lions? nope. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people.

the decisions we've made and the strategies we've set in motion ten months ago have created a solid foundation, and we're starting to see strong momentum it's working on direct-to-consumer we are making meaningful progress on our goal to achieve real profitability in streaming a key and powerful segment of our company. we brought our losses down considerably it's working and our new studio heads are hard at work, putting their unmatched creative stamp on our future slate >> that's warner bros. discovery's david zaslav on the

earnings call, sticking by his growth strategy after the company did pose a loss due to restructuring, revenue miss, soft ad sales. streaming business, though, pretty nice at 96.1 and a narrower than expected ebitda streaming loss >> the stock's one of the five best performers in the s&p, so let's give it that it could come back down. i loved the conference call, in part because zaslav knows how to tell a story it's a company of storytellers superman, batman but i thought one of the things he said, and the reason why it invoked this show, "last of us," he said, we're getting back to water cooler status. the first one has the fewest, and then each week, it has more. that's what i want to see. and that's what zaslav's giving us he paid down a lot of debt he's got a plan. things got in place last year. now he's going to go forward i wish the stock hadn't run so much, because i think that

getting on the zas train is a good train >> free cash flow, way above expectations does that remind you of netflix? are they making that kind of progress >> yes >> really? >> that's what i heard last night. they do have costs, and you got to deal with sports programming, and they did praise chris lake at cnn endless articles about him he's a nice guy. i sat next to him once at a movie, and my mom said, who's that nice guy? and i said, he's the most powerful guy in the news i feel that when i listened to call, and everyone should listen to the call, i get the sense that he's more in control than a year ago when i saw him. i saw him about four months ago, and he said, just you wait, and he was right but i think it's creativity that's driving it. i think people underestimate creativity and what it means and i've never underestimated him, because he's so good. >> right we do know that succession is going to end with season four.

that was announced last night. >> that's disappointing, but white lotus. >> makes room for new material >> when people realize -- this is something that bob iger did and will do. when you think about the pipe, i mean, if we're dealing with merck, we're thinking about the pipe moderna, the pipe. well, warner bros. discovery is a pipe story, and i like that. i have to use that for my show i got a session with investing club tomorrow. pipe wow. geez i thought of it myself i didn't even steal it from a guy like tepper or anything. >> it's interesting. this was also a week where we got reports in the "journal" and confirmation that netflix is cutting prices in some countries. >> i saw that. >> and in some cases, by quite a bit. >> i didn't know how to read that, because that last quarter was so exceptional but you know, people are struggling to try to figure out how they're doing with the cutting off of people. look, netflix has become a drag story. it was like a last year story.

it was the best of fa.a.n.g now it's, where's the f.a.n.g. to be worse than alphabet is really something i mean, alphabet, i mean, do they still make alphabet soup or alphabet cereal? man, we got alphabet mash. that thing is just awful >> whether it's the reg risk or behind the 8 ball on a.i., we're going to talk some adobe too after the break. >> adobe's very, very interesting. >> yes you had a couple interesting takes on social media last night. >> yeah. >> as the doj reportedly is looking at that. >> they did it with books. next thing you know, they're going to do it with dog food too much human food. not enough dog food. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell, again, some equity weakness at the open here as we got those hotter-than-expected cocro numbers and more to me at 10:00 with new homes and yumish don't go away. what's this, a hospital bill? mm-hmm. for 1,100 bucks? ga-a-a-ap! looks like your wallet may need a sling too. tell me about it. did that goat say "gap"? he's talking about expenses

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futures weak, if you missed it about half an hour ago, personal income comes in spending, comes in ahead, core pce and headline pce all above expectations, even though the market had been bracing for a hotter print we definitely did get it opening bell is coming up in a few minutes and you can always catch us any time, anywhere, all you have to do is listen to and follow the "uasqwk on the street: opening bell" podcast. don't go away.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. let's get to cramer's "mad dash." >> i have to tell you, block last night, the old square, had an incredible conference call, and jack dorsey and one of my favorite cfos talked about the idea that we got to start spending willy-nilly we got to start thinking about gross profit margin and rule of 40, meaning we figure out what we're making, growth, and trying to get it with margin, but most importantly, stop losing money,

and they trashed stock-based compensation as not being included this was the best of the pivots other than nikesh at palo alto, and i think that it's a textbook for those ceos who are trying to figure out, versus the opposite, say, of a carvana, how do you get people to respect your company? and this company is on the move, and it is the only fintech company that i really feel like's got momentum right now. i joke with jamie dimon about fintech. he believes that there are real companies and not real companies, but i got to put square squarely in the real company category, and that's because they're going for -- they want their earnings to look like regular earnings. and i salute them because they're not using any phony stuff to get to where they need to go. the cash app is a really good business, very good business >> there are a couple of examples this morning. beyond was the other one, beyond meat, where you had an earnings miss but revenue came in ahead does that say anything about

cost management right now? >> beyond kept lowering, lowering, lowering, but they did have fantastic numbers out of europe i mean, mcdonald's in germany and in denmark, i mean, things are going really well for them there. good for them. i mean, they finally have a path toward anything -- something other than oblivion. i think there are companies all over the place that were losing a lot of money tharlt realized they're not going to have any favor on wall street unless they do anything right. but block could have lost money forever in order to try to get business, and they're done with that >> you need a new acronym for companies that are in a profitable tech mode palo alto, cisco, maybe amat >> these companies blew up we have to talk about adobe, because adobe's an improbable mode but they're being challenged very heavily by other companies. and when you're challenged, you have no choice

this canba, the designers out there all know that it seems to be a better deal than what adobe has, so adobe would buy a competitor, even for $20 billion, it would really help them against canba, and now the justice department is going to block it. rumored. bloomberg, great story so, yeah, you need to buy companies that are entrenched, making money with a big moat, and that's what palo alto is that's what adobe is worried they won't be. >> adobe down about 4% >> very tough for them >> at the big board, yield max etfs at the desk, atlas lithium last night, you tweeted about adobe that you were -- were you suggesting maybe justice is going to save them from themselves >> well, $20 billion, i always felt, was a big overpay. i also -- i know that he may not want to hear this, but ijust hesitate to believe that his greatness and his people can't create this product themselves

why can't they why are they losing to a company that i regard as second rate they have such a hammer lock on younger people everybody knows to use photoshop in ninth grade what, do they switch to canba when they get out? i think his company's so great, they can solve this themselves if they aren't allowed to buy this company, which they are spending a great deal of money on >> kind of reminds me, remember when peltz was all over p&g, saying the smaller, more nimble brands were capturing young people's attention p&g foupnd a way to figure that out. >> they sure did nelson was very instrumental in making sure each division had to explain itself, and instead of blaming advertising or manufacturing, everybody had a clear line of sight to what they needed to do now he's doing it with unilever. i know the procter people -- he helped procter, now he's helping unilever these are companies, they had lost the feel for what's going

on in all the great growth countries on earth procter was getting crushed in all of the countries that are lesser developed, and now procter isn't. and procter, i think, is going to have a very good year, but right now, and my travel trust oenz it, but right now, wall street disagrees with me >> boeing is going to be a piece of it on this 787 dreamliner delivery halt on a component related to the fuselage. they don't change their guidance on production for the year >> right that's interesting meaning, i mean, the planes are on the tarmac at boeing, not shipping them, but you can certainly make a case that they're still going to make a lot of money i think the problem with owning boeing is that as soon as you buy it, that's the day that something bad happens. greg smith, by the way, congratulations, former cfo of boeing, going to run american airlines and i think greg is a very much on -- boots on the ground cfo, one of the rare ones i've ever seen where he was going from

place to place to try to figure out how to improve boeing, and now he's going to be a -- maybe a customer of boeing, maybe not. >> boeing is the worst-performing dow name. the best-performing dow name, although they're all red, is jpm, which we talked about a moment ago actually, just went green. and now, jim, goldman authorizing a $30 billion buyback in a filing today. that's thanks to the "journal. >> well, you know, goldman, you know, when people talk about banks, i always hear the same thing, which is, why is goldman selling at ten times earnings? is it that solomon is not doing a good job, not doing a bad job? there is almost nothing happening in the capital markets, and goldman's a capital markets play, so i think it's doing really well. i know, okay, i worked there you know, even though i worked there, it doesn't mean anything to me. nobody -- there's nobody left from when i worked there i'm just saying that i get why it's not selling

what were they supposed to do? now, they made some missteps, but everyone's made missteps i just think that they're making hay when the sun doesn't shine, so what will they make when the sun shines >> you did talk to solomon not too long ago the tone was, well, it was about strategic reflections on consumer and markets but also about a warmer -- maybe not a soft landing view, but approaching something like that. >> well, i think that it's -- i think they're going back to their old way of working for the wealthy, which is not a bad way. i remember i brought in a customer that only had a million dollars to invest. we're talking about 1985, and i was excoriated for wasting my time now, if you have a.i. and you have really good management, maybe you can make more money out of that million dollar custom than you could, but we used to hunt elephants, so to speak. i think the whole goldman initiative to retail, i found confusing. i found it very confusing.

versus james gorman's complete pivot toward working for everyone and not having that risk that's given them a higher multiple and makes gorman look like the king right now. >> yeah. there was a lot of thematic purity to morgan stanley's strategy >> look, gorman is -- the chronic underestimation of that man is really kind of insane but he has a secret. >> some of the names we've not gotten to, intuit with a beat. although they guide below for the fiscal third quarter, they keep the year intact >> i think this credit karma is going to be an issue for them, but the fact that their core business is so good, i wanted to tell jamie dimon, we were at the center where they're doing -- they're making real community happen it's an old psfs building for philadelphians, and i, at one point, wanted to say, are you going to bring in intuit to teach people how to keep their

books right? what hurts small business, and no one ever seems to talk about this, is the government. i'm not talking about the reagan people i'm talking about running afoul of the irs, running afoul of trying to keep your balance correct, and that's what intuit does best. they are able to literally overcome the negatives that i heard last night about what they're -- the last two acquisitions that stock has got to be bought, and i think this is the backbone of the economy we always hear about small business being the backbone. when you switch to intuit, you save a lot of money. it's a very easy, intuitive product. >> clearly, highly leveraged to small and medium business. >> it's so good. when we switched to it at the restaurants, i mean, i understood, you can see -- you could see a map, a heat map of how you're doing and recognize, wow, the people doing this aren't doing well, or we're not doing this, paying this right, and you can get your -- you absolutely get a very good sense

of your business i want to apologize to doug sax, who's still a partner -- wow, i've got greg, a lot of guys that worked at goldman are informing me, we're still alive. so, i apologize to the people who are doing incredibly well at goldman. but i do think that when i look at small, medium-size business, which is something that jamie dimon's focused on, intuit should be in the room. >> how are we going to handle carvana today? big miss on revenue, ebitda, units, although, inventory down is starting to clear the channel. >> everyone wrote them off as if they were bed bath & beyond. the losses the staggering, but they recognize it. the first question was, hey, you spoke too fast it's always negative when you start a conference call with q and like that. do i like their model? absolutely not do i like the fact that they recognize they're doing too much and have to pivot more toward

profitability? everybody did. everybody knows that when you look at the estimates for 2023 of all these companies that are losing out on money, it looks like they're going to make 52 cents. carvana is going to lose a lot of money this year, and that's not acceptable to wall street. carvana and bed bath & beyond are two companies that are going to lose a lot of money, and people don't have any tolerance for losing money at this point >> they did say they're not going to get the positive seasonality we normally get this time of year >> that's funny you should say that everyone else is getting it. >> yeah. right. >> everyone's getting it >> yes >> i mean, wow look, again, the fed has to deal with the fact that happy days are here again, and they kind of -- jay powell's too kind of a person to say, i don't want happy days, but the fonz, you know, we absolutely need something to make people feel like, look, i got to stop spending, and i got to stop building, and i got to pull back things that -- that you wouldn't want to hear at 5% unemployment, but at 3% and change, not so

bad. >> i'm looking at -- we talked about booking, which is hanging on to gains, but airbnb's down 1.5% you know, you look at some of the airlines today down -- united, down almost 2% is there a sense that this is the -- this has a shelf life, this pent-up demand to travel? >> you know, i look at bookings, and the numbers at bookings.com for the year, it's a very good conference call, glenn fogel a good guest on "squawk. they're too confident in that the fed doesn't like what they say. like doug yearly, ceo of toll brothers, whoa, doug, come on. they'll take rates where they have to go to make it so people stop buying homes. what they're trying to do -- the existential crisis at the fed is not mester these people come on and they don't get the problem. i talked about this with jamie dimon off camera the problem is, what do higher short-term rates really do to your business to make it so it's not doing as well? and the answer is, not much. not much

because there's so much business there's so few people who want -- there's so many more jobs still than people, and jamie had this great letter in the "wall street journal" talking about, we got to solve immigration. well, jon ellis did a poll -- had some polling numbers the democrats and the republicans, the one thing they're united on, other than hating google, is that we must stop any immigration so, i don't know what people think the problem with immigration is in washington they don't like it but both sides don't like it you're not going to have it. >> there was an op-ed this week by two republican governors saying, look, maybe the states need to sponsor our own just statewide immigration and you can have some federal oversight, but that way, states can say, look, we'll take them even if another state might disagree >> when i was visiting in 2011, they had such a shortage of people i offered -- i told the governor, and the guy who turned out to be a senator, cramer, no

relation, guys, you got to buy greyhound bus tickets. but one person reminded me, it's minus 20 in january, and it's 100 in august, and i said, well, i'm not -- i don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, but you got to get more employees and it failed. that has historically failed by the way, the home prices are coming back in all those states like the tennessees and floridas they looked like they were dipping. >> you mentioned energy. sheneer yesterday, jim i mean, brian dees, who recently left the administration, tweeted today that the united states supplied half of europe's nat gas last year. >> and that -- that's with freeport offline we have no place to put natural gas. now, ben, who works as the research director of "mad money," has famously called the bottom of natural gas at two bucks. i agree with that. when i looked at everybody else, they said it was never although

go through four. cheniere has been the leader very good. people who like cheniere, could you please think about cnq -- i'm sorry, not canadian natural. think about the lng preferreds they have, the lng -- there's more to it than just lng, the common but i really think that the export numbers that we're getting out of -- weakened export, really, much more naturally. a lot of people worry it would be like australia. if you export five, they needed more themselves. i have a rest on "power" tonight. how do you get the rates down with natural gas and lick fied natural gas. >> it was three years ago today was the first big covid-related selloff, if you remember, when we were watching those case

loads in italy china, last night, with this missive, trying to promote some kind of peace talk >> first words we disagree with. >> pretty much >> status quo. i mean, there's a lot of very soul-searching pieces about how, is ukraine really doing well, given the fact that their army's lost a lot of people, they don't mention the numbers, and i am -- look, the fact that biden went there, i think, really was, listen, don't give up on ukraine. i think most people don't realize the economy is a little dire there, and we have to support that economy, and we're doing a marshal plan for ukraine and i'm not sure that's what people want for this country my views on that -- >> right does the market respond to it at this point was it still off to the side >> it's still off to the side. jamie dimon brought it up repeatedly i hate to continually be, you know, reverential to our interview yesterday, but he just says, you got to stay on top of ukraine.

ukraine is far more important than people realize. when i mentioned, he wants a marshall plan for food, i said, we're in great shape he said, jim, i'm not talking about the u.s. i'm talking about foreign, and a lot of that is because of what's ukraine doing to disrupt the economy, well, russia into ukraine, disrupt the economy >> next week is going to be busy we're going to get names like target on tuesday. tesla, analyst meeting some reports out today about what the master plan three could look like. >> i have to tell you, i had just a joyous interview with patti poppe. she is the ceo of pg&e, which had a great quarter, and she said, you know, she talks to them all the time because obviously, one of the -- obviously doesn't want a bad energy source. she says his team is brilliant now, i found it interesting. i thought there was no team. i thought it was just him. i thought there was an "i" in team but no she says, these people are incredible and it's a reminder of who this guy is a week ago, i saw a big launch,

big spacex launch coming up, and you forget that he has been a major change to the gdp in our country. just in terms of, like, being in charge of industries that i think people thought we had ceded to the chinese we haven't we haven't ceded anything. our inferiority complex is really bugging the heck out of me >> really quick, before we get to bob, any trap doors here near 39, 45, as some suggest? >> the vicks is the one to watch. vicks is kind of exploding here. but i just don't -- i think that you started out correctly by saying a lot of the technicians are saying, we could be -- we're shaking out to a bottom. now, again, we need to see -- they're not -- we have not reached where i need my checklist, but i need to see the s&p go lower in order for it to go higher. the components had been going higher up until this last ten days, were the stuff that had faux pivot i don't want faux pivot. i want real pivot. >> we're not getting it yet. >> no. >> we're down 450.

let's get to bob pisani. good morning, bob. >> morning, guys happy friday so, look at the pce today, we had the ppi, cpi stronger, the whole underpinning of a bull lille rally is based on the idea that the glide path to inflation is lower. now, not only is it sort of stalling out, but the pc was actually higher, and that's a real problem so, the big issue here is look at this two-year yield 4.8% we're heading technically towards 5% this is the highest since 2007 my mother called and asked about this robert, tell me about this two-year yield how can i invest in it when your mother starts calling, asking about it, now it's seeping through. bond yields are significant competition for the stock market right now. it's pulling money away from the stock market that's a problem you can blame the fed, but there's the issue right now, and this is putting a lot of pressure on growth sectors today and all this week. ark is down about 8% on the week i mean, ark is up still about 20% for the year, but you get my

point. semis are weak emerging markets are weak when interest rates go up there's the eem. health care and consumer staples are more stable but they're generally bound because we had a big rally in growth in january and part of february, so they're looking better now, but on a year-to-date basis, they're the underperformers. so, very interesting little situation, and very frustrating for the bulls right now. elsewhere, i was at the etf conference in miami, the biggest one of the year, and a bunch of us were going to go see bruce springsteen, who was playing down the street, until we saw the price of the tickets they were astonishing. i don't know if you saw, but livenation reported their numbers last night, and these numbers were just off the charts here revenues, look at these numbers, up 44%, full-year revenues, 44%. attention was up 24% and if you think the fans have stopped going to these tickets, like i hesitated going to bruce springsteen, no. our research consistently tells us that concerts are a top

priority for discretionary spending, and one of the last experiences fans will cut back on now, obviously, they're very sensitive about this ticket-scalping something that's been going on since the dawn of time but seems to be particularly egregious recently, and they sort of address this. selling speculative tickets should be illegal, so scalpers cannot use deceptive tactics. good luck with that one, folks these brokers have been around since the dawn of time just like coffee brokers and stockbrokers and all kinds of brokers the problem with the concert business is very simple. supply and demand. there are, in some small cases, many more fans than there are tickets for people like taylor swift, beyonce, and bruce springsteen. the answer, unless you want to go to communism, is very simple. the prices rise to meet the demand, or if you want another

solution, there should be ten times more shows that taylor swift puts on for her fans, or we should have fewer fans. maybe a few lousy albums would deal with that, but my point is banning ticket brokers seems like silly idea in a capitalist society. back to you. >> supply and demand, bob, that's for sure. thanks as we go to break, 2% declines on the nasdaq 100 that's the lowest since the end of january with the dollar at a seven-week high. vicks near 23. we got the two-year, 4.81% the one-year t-bill, 5.1%. and the dow, down 440. don't go anywhere.

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i screwed up. mhm. to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones.

oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. it's time for jim and stop trading. >> really under fire today and a lot of it is the doj may block

the acquisition, but also, we haven't talked enough about the -- what you're going to see, the change in the economy from nvidia, change in economy from the way that you can design things, and there's a chance that the graphic artists are going to be big losers here. graphic artists are the people who use adobe. you don't need them. i remember when i did a piece, jensen huang is making it so if you have a thought in your head it can be displayed. why do you need a graphic artist to do that or adobe. that's the threat to adobe. >> morgan stanley has a note on apple and they argue that apple stance stands to benefit from the a.i. boom because of their vertical in chips and a possible play as people use this on their phones. >> that could be the obvious winners are the companies teaming up directly.

alphabet, i hesitate, obviously, problematic, but azure and microsoft. don't forget oracle. the low multiple, that is the one that people need to be focused on that's the horse coming from the outside in eighth place at the turn man, they can really shock people. >> it's just -- larry ellison, i don't talk about, i think he thinks i don't like him, but you can't please everybody. >> you mentioned ap tonight. >> yeah. julie is new just took over traen had a great quarter. canyon ranch yeah that's not the place to go, by the way, to knock back my wife's [ inaudible ]. >> they're not - >> jim v a good weekend. see you later. "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m. with 1% declines on the major indices. some have more

dow down 430 good friday mor.

welcome to another hour of

"squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber has the morning off. we're live as always at post nine of the new york stock exchange take a look, stocks selling off hard down 453 points on the dow, the s&p losing 1.5%. the nasdaq hit the hardest 1.8%. it's all about the economic data today. the pce deflator, key inflation metric, hotter than expected for january. we've got new data out at the top of his hour. rick santelli has that. >> thank you our january read on new home sales expected around 620,000. seasonally au justed annualized units better, 670,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units, the best level since march of '22, which puts it up over 7% for the month. university of michigan, sentiment, february final read, 70.4, and that -- excuse me,

70 - 67.0 that replaces 66.4 on current conditions 70.7, that replaces 72.6 and on expectations what lies ahead, 62.3 turns into 64.7 we could see the headline and expectations bested the mid-month read, but we do notice that the current conditions, maybe the most important issue, is a little bit lower. now for the money numbers, one-year inflation comes in at 4.1% high watermark here was in march of last year at 5.4, so making progress unlike the personal income and consumption numbers inflation gauges, this one is sequentially lower than last look which was 4.2, and that was the mid-month read finally the 5 to 10-year inflation came in at 2.9 mid-month, remains at 2.9.

high watermark was a split decision, june and january of last year was 3.2, the highest since 2011 back to you. >> not doing much for the equity market right now rick santelli, thank you very much still down sharply, 460 on the dow, 1.6% on the s&p about 30 minutes into the trading session. three big movers we are watching at this hour shares of block are moving higher the fin technology player missed estimates but revenues beat and posted strong gross profits up 40%. stock up 2%. beyond meat having a good day. the company reporting a smaller than expected loss despite sales down more than 20% from last year g guidance better than feared, short squeeze at work, up 25%. and then finally keep an eye on booking holdings setting a new record in january for monthly night bookings, whopping 36%

higher than last year. carl, if you look at booking and look at livenation and if you look at cinemark you will see why this economy is hot. it's in services and there was an acceleration in january i think we have to start with the big elephant in the room which is the inflation number coming in better than expected, both the core and the headline and importantly, turning the trend. we had been seeing these lower inflation readings if you look at the bar chart look what happened in january. that is bad news for the markets, bad news for the fed, bad news if you were hoping to get price pressures easing >> arguably the market sort of rerated in advance we knew after the january number and retail sales, that things were going to be hot for a bit, and they certainly have been i'm a little -- the market is a little encouraged by this michigan inflation expectation number down a tick from below expectations whether it's weather or whether it's just continued pent up demand, continued excess

savings, people are spending and clearly not necessarily buying as much at retailers, but when concert revenue at livenation is up 66% they're going out. >> we have a sound bite from the livenation call, just listen to how strong the demand is for what they're seeing. >> we continue to see strong consumer demand globally with no sign of any slowdown we have four key leading indicators at this time of the year, all pointing towards another record year, even greater success in '23 >> we're seeing incredible strength across the board on our festivals, big festivals, our nish festivals, our theaters, clubs. we think this is going to be a continual boom year. >> no sign of a slowdown and people are paying these high ticket prices, which speaks to the strong demand. it's a year where taylor swift is on tour, beyonce is on tour, adele in las vegas, say no more. this is what people -- >> only mention the artists you

love >> of course. >> bruce springsteen, i know bob is excited about that one. look, the services inflation, and i think your question is the right one now, and none of the economists know the answer, which is, is january a fluke was it because it was unseasonably warm? because we got those sort of one-time social security benefits, we saw an increase to match inflation for the month? higher minimum wages a lot of things that happened in january you could explain the strength of the data and inflation, but look, this is a fed that wants to bring inflation down to 2% target and can't take that chance now what's happening is, we've got three rate hikes firmly priced in for the next three months march, may and now june. and the odds are rising it's a 50 we're not there yet, but we're north of 30% of the 50 which is a double in the month of march something that was not thinkable right after the last fed meeting. >> there was a period earlier in the year where the market seemed

to be saying well, fed is unable to talk up the terminal rate, now that that's creeping up, someone said maybe the pause is essentially already in effect, but now that we have swaps in 5.4 mid-year that discussion is changing as well. >> nobody is talking about a pause or a pivot anymore. >> maybe the market misinterpreted powell at the last meeting but the january data which has come in hot, has only reinforced that point we're down 392 we recovered a tiny bit after the data mike santoli joins us with your take, mike, on today's action bringing the losses for the week to 3% for the s&p. >> dialing back to about a four-week low in the s&p 500 we're kind of eating into the cushion that was built up in the january rally and to all of your points the pause, they're coming between rate meetings and fed meetings basically i think the market has been okay with this notion we go a quarter point every six or seven weeks and then not far from the end it keeps getting elongated, this

process, and now we have the chance of an accelerated rate hike take a look at a couple measures of the strong consumer as reflected in sectors here. this is the leisure and entertainment etf. looking at that when everyone was waiting for the reopening trade after the covid lockdowns. you seen on a six-month move outperforming on this frame and then you have despite retail, the broader retail sector, which had a huge spurt higher. part of that was amazon having a huge comeback, but also, just a lot of heavily shorted stocksing and the idea that the consumer was running very hot both out performing right here i would say you're right about the january kind of flush of income gains in terms of social security, minimum wage gains, state tax cuts the issue it raises the level of wage income going forward as well, so i think that's what we have to wonder about is exactly how much of that is going to be spent and supporting services based inflation. take a look at stocks versus bonds. obviously, a heavy theme right

now in terms of higher yields not just drawing money away from stocks but resetting the hurdle rate for, you know, investments and for valuation. so you've seen over the course of the year, you've seen the s&p 500 have these rallies as bond prices have gone down, it's the aggregate bond index, as it goes down, yields are going up, and reconnected a few times here as you can see. they haven't always reconnected by stocks just going down. you've had this rally in bonds late last year as well we have to see how it goes there has been a gap open up and i want to emphasize this is not a very long-term ironclad relationship back two years the s&p was at almost the exact same level it was at now the 10-year yield 1.4. it's not as if one yield level corresponds to one index level but right now the yields are telling us how tough the fed has to be, that is something that's very relevant to the tactical picture. >> mike, on technicals, we

mentioned with cramer last hour some of the arguments there is decent support not far south from where we are right now in addition to a day where we talk about 90% down days as being decisive in the short run. >> for sure. look, we're right at basically the 200 day average and all those things you've kind of given up about half the total rally we got to the highs. all these are coming in the area where if you still want to say we're putting in higher highs and lows, this is where down to the mid-38 or 3900s you want it to hold. we haven't invalidated the big momentum signals that were triged in january just yet, so it's a matter of patience and give and take and see exactly what this tape can absorb. february it's already absorbed a lot. massive move higher in yields, big bounce in the dollar and the unfriendly inflation data.

>> i appreciate that mike santoli boeing the worst stock in the dow below 200 for the first time since the beginning of the year. the company temporarily halting deliveries of the 787 dreamliner phil lebeau has more on the fallout today. hey, phil. >> hey, carl let's talk about this halt of deliveries for the 787 dreamliner the company announcing yesterday after the faa said we want to take a look at some of the certification papers, the process of the analysis for a key component within the fuselage of the 787 dreamliner the important thing to keep in mind, production continues if they halted production, that would be a different story it would be a far more serious story for investors. again, the issue is, certification analysis for a component within the fuselage. this is not a safety issue the dreamliners continue to fly and they believe that they can correct this relatively quickly.

they're not putting a timeline on it at this point. in reviewing certification records boeing discovered an analysis error related to the forward pressure bulkhead and notified the faa and have paused deliveries while we complete the required analysis and documentation. reached out to the faa and they said they want to make sure they have the analysis and everything is done as it should be. once satisfied we will clear the dreamliner will clear boeing to say resume deliveries. they resumed deliveries after pausing more than a year back in august, and that's when we started to see the stock take off. look at the move in shares since october. i mean, it's been a heck of a run for bogeing, this gives investors a chance to say hold on a second, am i confident boeing can not only increase production over the next couple years but do it consistently and not run into issues like this. that's the real impact of this

delivery halt if you will. it gives investors a chance to say, not entirely comfortable yet with boeing. we've had a heck of a run here maybe i'll pause a bit in terms of my enthusiasm for the stock. >> on that point phil, have there been more delivery freezes in recent, i don't know, months and years? you said this isn't about safety. >> recent years yes. 100% 100%. >> why >> with the dreamliner, with the dreamliner, the issue was when they paused it for more than a year, it was the inspection protocol process that they had to do certain -- there's a way in which inspections needed to be done and then certified in order to satisfy the requirements of the faa. they weren't being done and they had to literally go through and redot inspection protocol for all of the dreamliners that would be delivered in the future part of this is the faa being far more diligent in terms of making sure that boeing does things the proper way, and the

other part of this is that boeing is much more stringent on itself and suppliers in terms of saying maybe in the past we were not as strict as we probably should have been and liked to have been, and now we are making sure you could make an argument here, vare, yeah, it's analysis, not a safety issue is it the end of the world, that's not the way the faa and boeing are looking at it now they're saying halt deliveries and when we're confident that analysis is where it should be, we'll resume deliveries. >> all right i guess we as passengers should feel good about all that boeing shareholders not today. the stock down almost 4% thank you, phil lebeau. as we head to break, here's our road map for the rest of the hour one chief economist says there's no sign of a recession here. warner brothers discovery not mincing words. the u.s. announcing sweeping sanctions on russia one year to the day since the war in ukraine

began. we'll talk to deputy treasury secretary wally adiamo more on "squawk on the street. the dow taking another turn south, down 450. stay with us thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

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with some fresh fed speak crossing the tape. let's get to steve liesman. >> hey, carl here at the u.s. monetary policy conference in new york more than a third or a quarter of the fomc is actually here, new fed governor philip jefferson making comments in response to the paper being delivered here and says high inflation may come down only slowly and that worker shortage is an important part of the inflation pressure that's out there and wage pressure remains high he says, bringing service inflation under control, that thing that fed chair, jay powell, has talked about, is going to depend on getting better balance in labor supply and demand recent data, he says, suggests that labor compensation has started to decelerate, but only somewhat finally, inflationary forces, he says, are going to be a mix of temporary and longer lasting elements his comments seem well timed after that pce price index, the fed inflation indicator hotter than expected, a tenth more on the headline, 0.2 on the core

and the year over year core rate 0.3% going the wrong way. jefferson's comments came in response to a research paper done by several wall street luminaries on monetary policy which they went back and looked and said there was no instance of a central bank over history in the postwar period fighting inflation without a recession coming in the aftermath of that disinflation attempt by the central bank they conclude the policy rate may have to rise to 5.5% to bring inflation down that is not far off of where we are right now, guys. we are at a new high for that january 2024 contract which gives us the year-end view of the market, we're at 5.29 the last that i saw. loretta mester telling cnbc this month she thinks the funds rate needs to get up above the 5 and stay there for a while. >> i'm on the record saying at the last meeting i saw an economic case doing 50 because

my view of the outlook hadn't changed and i believe we have to move our policy rate above 5% and a 50 at the last meeting would have brought the top of our target range to 5%. >> wrap it up in one bow, all the fed speak and data point in one direction, higher rates for longer, any pivot, guys, far off on the horizon >> and that is what market is telling us today stronger dollar, higher treasury yields, more inverted yield curve. it's all happening weaker stock market. market doing the work for the fed. steve, my biggest question what you're hearing from the fed members there about january and whether there's a chance it was a little bit of an anomaly because the data is not fully consist-point we're seeing the weakness in housing, for instance, which we'll talk about and manufacturing and yes, while the key things, retail sales, and inflation all look better for january, i wonder how they're thinking about that in terms of the inflation fight.

>> you know, it's a very smart question, and i am talking to him about that a lot of people are thinking the january jobs number, the retail sales number, was seasonally adjusted here's the problem for the fed, as you know, they're in the risk management mode trying to say what's the biggest risk here the biggest risk higher inflation. step back and say, let's just say for argument's sake the january jobs number of 517,000 was twice as big as it should have been. it's still 250 for -- 250,000 for a fed that would be happy if it was 100,000. it doesn't really matter if it was all, part or some seasonal adjustment when it comes to retail sales i did a report this week, sara, that showed that at least the jpmorgan chase credit card spending data shows that strong january consumer spending, spilled over into february so that's not an anomaly at the moment you're absolutely right. like the market, we're watching this data day by day, week by week, so far it's coming stronger than expected

>> thanks. really good work with mester steve liesman this morning new home sales up sharply in january stronger than expected our next guest says the housing market is still a mess logan, it's great to have you. what do you mean by a mess, and to what degree were you surprised that we got any kind of ramp up in activity as mortgage rates were down beginning in november housing data began to improve as mortgage rates fell down to 6% we had about three months of positive forward looking data, and then within two weeks, mortgage rates shot back up. the market cannot find any kind of stability long term as long as rates move up and down like this what we're seeing, at least in the existing home sales marketplace, is new listings data is starting to decline year over year. people simply don't want to move

and buy another house with rates above 6% the builders on the other hand, they're very efficient home sellers, and when rates came down they buy down rates and cut prices and do what they need to do to move product, but again, that's the old story now rates shot back again almost near 7%. the market is back to its how to deal with higher mortgage rates and that has not worked in the past year. >> your point about being locked in, sort of like these velvet handcuffs of having refied or flocked at a lower rate means people don't want to move. if unemployment really starts to rocket higher and people crave mobility, they need a place to move to, would you expect that chain to be broken >> not really. the only time in the last four decades we've seen inventory spike up is 2006 to 2011 forced credit sellers people are living in homes longer and longer.

what occurred last year when rates got above 6%, new listing data has declined year over year and we're not working from a very hard comp right we're working near all-time lows people are comfortable with their homes. remember, the best hedge against inflation is your 30-year mortgage, right. your fixed cost payments stay the same, wages are rising more. there's not a rush to move out there. but when we saw mortgage rates come down to 6%, saw the forward looking data start to get better, all that did was stabilize the housing market it's not a big rebound or anything in that home sales collapsed in the biggest fashion ever reported in history last year we're working from very low levels, but again, if rates spike back up like they have, that takes that story away rates down below 5.75%, everyone would change their housing take this year. we're not there. >> are you surprised that there's not a stronger link to the consumer here? as people's home values fall and the housing market is so weak, that it's not having more of a

trickle effect on consumer spending and the broader economy? >> no. i think what occurred the 2005 bankruptcy reform laws and 2010 qualified mortgage laws changed consumers to have strong balance sheets for this century. once people verse themselves on that, housing is a fixed cost. your wages rise every year fico scores have looked great. households that are homeowners look good. renters have to deal with rental inflation and don't have that fixed shelter cost the homeowner in this case is fine and they are proving it by, you know, still listings data this year is negative. we track this stuff weekly, it's down year over year again, and there's just not the urge or necessity to move with rates this high, which means that is a huge demand hit. this is why home sales went from 6.5 million to 4 million that is a historical collapse in

demand. >> pretty amazing. meantime the s&p home builder etf not quite to the 50-day, but if it does touch, it would be the first time really pretty much for the first time all year appreciate the help on this stuff. good to see you. a big run for warner brothers discovery this year but given the softening ad market can that continue we'll break down the numbers next don't go anywhere. down 484 on the dow. it's the nasdaq getting hurt the most on the back of these rising treasury yields. we'll be right back.

don't go anywhere.

linear ad sales is a top priority at the moment as we balance both cyclical headwinds and ongoing secular challenges, much of which we've dealt with for the last several years the macro environment is challenging. it's significantly better outside the u.s. right now, which is a surprise. the sentiment is not terrific. the market overall is very slow. i would say steady to maybe a little bit better than it was in the fourth quarter, but the digital inventory, which really

held up in the fourth quarter, has also softened. >> that's warner brothers discovery chief david zaslav addressing the 14% drop in global advertising revenue and adding the softness was exacerbated by audience declines, despite today's dip, leading the streamers year to date as you probably know up nearly 60% one of the silver linings free cash flow at $2.5 billion. >> the backdrop to the stock chart this year is what happened last year which is they got hammered and warner brothers discovery, down more than 60%. they talked about leadership talked about a second half recovery in the ad market. there's a lot of excitement in the analyst investor community around april 12th when they announce their combined or not combined streaming service it's interesting the analyst notes are starting to come out and it's mixed the bears are basically worried that key bank, for instance, the

linear network cash flow could fall apart quicker than the direct to consumer business will ram and why this remains a battleground stock atlantic saying look, there are those concerns but this stock is still dramatically discounted. guggenheim raised their price target to 18 and says the strong branded assets here which they talked about, they're leaning in to "harry potter," "lord of the rings," that they like the growth story and say they will outweigh the concerns about linear. >> it's a fascinating race throughout media, how fast and how much will you spend to grow a new business to offset the slow decline of an aging business it's, you know, losing succession season four. >> i saw that. i was so upset to hear that. >> but in the pipeline things like "last of us". >> and maybe spin-offs i could watch spin-offs on certain characters. >> i bet you could. >> cousin greg needs a spinoff, don't you think. >> it's going to happen. >> jamie dimon warning the fed's lost control of inflation.

moody's chief economist doesn't seem to think so we'll discuss next. first, watch auto desk heading for the first session since november '21 after issuing weak guidance and among the biggest losers today along with adobe lower on a report the doj plans to block its acquisition of figma both stocks moving lower than the overall market you have the nasdaq down 2% right now. the s&p 500 down 1.6 stay with us (vo) verizon has the epic new phone your business needs on the 5g network it deserves. boost your team's productivity with samsung's fastest processor yet. switch and save up to $1000 on the new galaxy s23 ultra. now that's epic. on the network america relies on.

i'm julia boorstin and here's your cnbc news update at this hour. french president emmanuel macron was one of the g-7 leaders who held a video conference with ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy to mark the one-year anniversary of the russian invasion today the u.s. is unveiling new sanctions among individuals and entities zelenskyy met in person today with poland's prime minister who

said the first tanks his country agreed to provide for the war effort have already arrived in ukraine. and in berlin a russian tank arrived outside moscow's embassy in the city not under its own power. a t-72 tank destroyed in the battle for kyiv was put by two german men supporting ukraine. sara, back over to you thank you. about an hour into the trading session. last one of the week it's ugly. let's get to bob pisani with the latest. >> yeah. these inflation reports, mean higher for longer. i want to show you the 2-year yields the bond market is significant competition for the stock market now a lot of people are talking about why should i play the market when dealing with 5%, 2 year e yields since 2007 that's a big story and you can see that move up that we've got there momentum sort of right in the middle started january strong february has been weaker a number of big names are kind

of near 52-week lows johnson & johnson had a terrible start to the year. we talked about intel having a terrible start pfizer has been weak and so has 3m for independent reasons, all not at or near 52 week lows. within 2% or so. in the same time, ge has had a he very good start to the year and ge health care, the spinoff, has had an excellent start to the year that's not far from a new high and it's only traded for a few weeks, but i think people over at ge are happy about that hershey and ulta also strong february has been all over the map. tech was strong in january it's flatish in the month of february but as we saw the dollar increase in the last few weeks, bond yields increase, we saw commodities weaken we see energy stocks down and material stocks down in the last few weeks. the dollar has gotten stronger consumer discretionary in the middle and consumer staples down 2% for the month take a look at the s&p 500 i just want to point out we're

down 3% for the month but up 3% for the year here. so we're right on the 200 day moving average that's 30 -- 3,000, 3940, or just above that. >> thanks talk in a bit. our next guest says we can skirt a full-blown economic downturn so long as consumers, businesses and lenders keep the faith mark zandsedy. happy friday great to see you again. >> good to see you as well. >> is this sort of another way don't talk yourself into a recession? >> yeah. that's another way of saying it. at the end of the day a recession is a loss of faith, right. consumers lose faith that they're going to hold on to their job, run into the bernanke, loss of faith by business people they will be able to sell whatever it is they

produce, if they feel like they can't they pull back, start laying off workers and get into a self-reinforcing cycle called a recession. a recession is a psychological phenomenon, a loss of faith. >> certainly yumish would not suggest they're close. >> it says the consumers are wavering my favorite measure of consumer sentiment is the conference board sur vey, more labor market based in terms of the questioning and that is a really good job of pegging when people lose -- when consumers lose faith. if that falls sharply over a couple, three-month period consumers are running into the bunkers and stop spending. it leads by six months by that measure everything is fine consumers are hanging tough and, obviously, given today's data they're out there spending. >> but that's the thing, mark. it's a very confusing world

we're in because the stronger the economic data the harder the market thinks the economy will fall into a hard landing because it means the fed is going to have to do more and stay higher for longer and that increases the chance of recession. >> yeah. indeed that needle the fed has to thread raise rates high enough, fast enough, to quell growth and get inflation back in the bottle and not too high too fast to push the economy into recession today's -- given today's numbers feels like things are on the hot side january the month of january, was just all juiced up i think in part due to the warm weather. you know, lots of jobs, retailing, you saw the service spending numbers translating into the higher inflation. it's not going to be a straight line i don't think it's going to be, you know, right back into the bottle for inflation it's going to take time and there's days like this when it's not going to feel all that

great. but my forecast has not changed. i think inflation will get back to target by summer, spring of 2024 without a recession. >> so that was my last question. you did not add a hike in june like a lot of the economic desks have why not, and would a 50 be dangerous at this point? >> 50 makes no sense to me, carl, in the context of, you know, the broad contours of the data the economy is slowing wage growth is slowing inflation is slowing it's moving in the right direction. and, you know, i think the fed has interest rates pretty close to where they need to be to get things back down to -- inflation down to target a couple more rate hikes, match, may, makes sense quarter point each that's what's embedded in markets. today markets are starting to discount a june rate hike. i don't think i would argue with anybody a third rate hike in

june in my outlook i think a couple more rate hikes makes no sense. >> everything you say makes sense, mark, but i just wonder and i worry and i think the market worries that the -- >> good. >> that the fed is going to lean like january may have been a kind of one off juiced up thing as you said, but the fed will lean into the stronger inflationary data because they want to be sure they have tamed this, not lost control, not lost credibility, and would err toward doing more, don't you think? it's a little different than what you're saying. >> although i would say it's not a bad thing you're scared and that everyone else is. in fact, going back to that loss of faith, you know, the benefit of that is i think people are going to be cautious ceos, you heard -- i saw you pitted me against jamie dimon in the teaser for this. thank you very much for that but, you know, he's, obviously, cautious, and he represents a lot of ceos that i talk to, but that is by design. the federal reserve loves the fact that people are, you know,

nervous. they're cautious and not out aggressively expanding because we do need to slow down this economy and get inflation back in the bottle. the fact that you're scared makes me more comfortable in my forecast. >> maybe we should add sara's mood into financial conditions. >> i think so. she would be a great indicator >> i don't think it would tell you anything. >> oh, no, no, no. >> thanks. have a good weekend. still ahead, one year to the day since the war in ukraine began and today the treasury department announces some of its most significant sanctions against russia to date deputy treasury secretary wally adeyemo joins us in an interview you do not want to miss in just a moment

what a story nat gas has been collapsing to two-year lows and it could fall further if the warmer weather continues as it stands we're holding on to 240 we'll break it down with the ceo of devin energy, one of the nation's top oil producers in the next hour. stay with us

more "squawk on the street" continues in a men omt.

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ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. it has been one year since russia invaded ukraine and today the treasury department announced a new round of sanctions targeting russia's

metals and mining sector and over 250 individuals and firms the u.s. also announcing another $2 billion support package joining us now, first on cnbc, is deputy treasury secretary wally adeyemo. it's god to have you back, secretary adeyemo, welcome. >> great to be with you. thanks for having me. >> this is a long list of new sanctions and i guess my first question is, why did it take so long why did it take a year to put these in place >> sara, it's good to remember that over the course of the last year, we in collaboration with our allies and partners have put in place a historic number of sanctions on the russian economy and because of those sanctions the kremlin has struggled to get -- use the money they have to buy the weapons they need and you've seen the kremlin's revenue structure start to decrease what we're doing today is we're furthering the vice around the kremlin's ability to fight its war in ukraine going after metals and minerals, a key source of revenue for them, and

also going after those outside of russia providing material support and helping them get the weapons they need to fight the war in crane and continuing to do that as long as russia's invasion continues. >> does any of it cover chinese individuals, chinese companies, the chinese government isn't individuals, chinese companies, because isn't that the problem >> we have a set of export controls against chinese firms, in fact, to make sure they are not able to give russia the things they need to build the weapons and the things they need to keep their economy going. what you'll see in this package is actions we've taken across individuals, companies and various countries providing material support to russia in order to make clear to the world that if you support russia, you'll be faced cut off from economies, not just of the united states but our allies and partners who have taken actions alongside us. >> why not sanction chinese companies providing critical

infrastructure products, for example, where you can use them to build weapons in russia, which there are lots of reports that's happening >> sara, we have sanctioned companies in china, namely a few weeks ago as part of our sanctions against the wagner group. we sanctioned chinese satellite company. those providing satellite imagery to them. we've used export controls to go after other firms in china that may be providing dual use goods that will be used in russia as well we're making very clear that ultimately we're going to look at companies and individuals in any country around the world that is providing russia material support and we're going to be willing to take actions against them not just here in the united states, but across our entire coalition, that includes the eu, the uk and up to 30 other countries. >> mr. secretary, are there work-arounds that can arrest the problem of, for example, barrels of russian crude getting blended with other types of barrels, work-arounds they're trying to

skirt sanctions with >> the important thing for us is wecontinue to take actions to make it more costly for russia to get around sanctions we've put in place and we're seeing that to be an effective strategy china's finance of ministry says they earned 40% less and they are earning as little as they did back in 2020 from the sale of energy, which means russia is earning less money and spending more money going forward, and led them having to think through how they use their dwindling resources to prop up their economy rather than to continue fighting the war in ukraine. >> russia's economy only contracted 2% last year. i imagine that must have been very disappointing, and certainly was a lot better than some of the worst estimates their economy was in a freefall and projected to collapse. it's projected to grow this year how did that happen? >> you're right, russia's economy performed better at least on the surface than people

expected at the beginning of last year. the reason for that is because the kremlin has gone to lengths to prop up the economy spending money from their central bank and sovereign wealth fund to make sure the economy doesn't destabilize, putting in place a set of draconian capital controls that means if you're a russian citizen, you can't take your money out of the country what russia is doing, they're using their dwindling resources to prop up their economy from our standpoint, we want to force them to continue to make the choice between propping up their economy with their money or spending that money in the war in ukraine and the more they spend on things like buying ships to ship their oil, the less they can spend on building tanks to fight their war in ukraine >> last 24 hours of seeing some criticisms that there's not enough transparency in at least the aid that ukraine is getting from the united states some are suggesting an audit of how and where that money is getting spent. is that something the administration would fight >> well, yesterday i had an opportunity to speak to the finance minister of ukraine.

over the course of the last year, they've put in place rigorous standards in terms of dealing with the aid that we have provided to them. aid we continue to provide to them because it's helping them to stabilize their economy ultimately we're happy to work with congress and others to make sure that money is being used responsibly. what i know is members of congress have actually visited ukraine and had an opportunity to see some of the safeguards they put in place themselves and bipartisan across congress, they feel comfortable with the assistance we're providing to ukraine. our message today is that the united states and our allies will continue to provide that assistance in support of ukraine until russia ends its invasion. >> i think there are new tariffs as part of this announcement today as well, mr. secretary, which i get we're trying to cut them off and make it hard for them to get income, but as we've all learned, very critical agriculture exports and metals and materials come from russia so, at a time where the world is trying to fight inflation, is

tariffs really the right way to do it? >> sara, that's a good point you make with regard to the impact that russia's war on ukraine is having on price pressures throughout the world and the biggest price pressures are coming from what they're doing in terms of blocking access to grain. you've seen food prices soar, not just in the united states, but around the world because of russia's invasion of ukraine after russia invaded ukraine, you also saw energy prices go up we're fortunate because of our decisions to use the strategic petroleum reserve, we've seen them come down significantly over the course of the last year what we know is until russia's invasion of ukraine ends, we're going to continue to face the consequences, not just in ukraine but around the world that's why we're committed to taking the actions we're taking today. >> finally, mr. secretary, you know, we talked about a lot. how do you judge whether the sanctions are working and whether they're effective? because, clearly, they're reeking havoc on russia, but as we talked about, the economy has held up. president putin maintains his

grasp on power and the war is still going. >> so, sara, we have two primary objectives the first one is making sure russia can't use the money they have to buy the weapons they need russia's lost more than 9,000 weapons on the battlefield and what we've heard from russia is that their top two tank companies have had to go out of business because they can't get access to the goods they need. the russians have made clear they can't continue to build precision missiles because they don't have access to the cutting edge semiconductors we have. last month the finance ministry reported that because of their lack of revenue due to the price cap, they're now having to sell foreign reserves in order to prop up their economy. so, ultimately, we know that this is working because russia's telling us it's working. but also because what we're seeing on the battlefield in ukraine. the defense department is providing them with weapons allowing the ukrainians to speed up, while we're using sanctions and export controls to slow the russians down. >> thank you very much for the time today on the news and for

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." we are hitting session lows. i'm dominic chu. across the board, as you can see

behind me, every sector is in the red. notable declines, tech heavy biggest losers are cloud and enterprise, datadog, ev makers like lieuucid and rivian and te. amazon leads those declines. keep an eye on those particular stocks, heading for weekly declines i will send it back downtown to carl and sara for the final hour of "squawk on the street." >> thank you, dom. good friday morning, i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live on the floor of the new york stock exchange setting the agenda for us today, ian bremmer will join us, one year into the war from russia and ukraine, as china this morning calls for a cease-fire the supply shop for food as the global conflict presses on. >> david rosenberg will join us during this tough week for stocks a