behind me, every sector is in the red. notable declines, tech heavy biggest losers are cloud and enterprise, datadog, ev makers like lieuucid and rivian and te. amazon leads those declines. keep an eye on those particular stocks, heading for weekly declines i will send it back downtown to carl and sara for the final hour of "squawk on the street." >> thank you, dom. good friday morning, i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live on the floor of the new york stock exchange setting the agenda for us today, ian bremmer will join us, one year into the war from russia and ukraine, as china this morning calls for a cease-fire the supply shop for food as the global conflict presses on. >> david rosenberg will join us during this tough week for stocks as investors today get to

digest hotter than expected inflation data while the secret to his strategy is one word -- cash. plus, the ceo of devon energy why theplunge in natural gas i having a serious impact on the bottom line. >> sara mentioned the markets. it's been a tough run. dow down 450, below some critical levels, some argue, around 3950. we are on pace for the worst week since december in a third weekly pullback. >> bank of america saying investors yanked $9 billion from u.s. equities this week and piled $5 billion into sovereign bonds. $10 billion went into investment-grade corporate bonds. mike santoli with us as everybody adjusts to this new world where the fed hikes rates more than originally expected, and keeps them higher for longer. >> and equities are repricing against that it's interesting, as we got through january, if you ask people, what are you most worried about based on the actions this year so far

retail investors getting overexcited about the market, we saw a real comeback in speculative stocks we're worried they're going back to that phase of recklessness and throwing money at an expensive market what we've seen since then, among private wealth management type clients at b of a is a rotation continuing into debt. now, i think a lot of that is a catch-up move. if you went back a year ago, retail investors, wealthy investors were underinvested in bonds relative to history. they hated bonds so, there is competition for equities right now it's a decent one. you have a nice yield cushion coming from safer bonds. i think that that rotation makes sense. i look at the silver lining, at least it means investor sentiment is not getting overoptimistic you've seen that in some of the other data the last week or so. >> does that mean the color or ton of the next presser will change does he need to be less hawkish because the market has gotten hawkish for him? >> i doubt just because of that

reason jay powell will -- nobody -- i keep saying, nobody's conviction, bullish or bearish, is going to override the next inflation number and the trend in inflation and what they feel they have to do. yesterday before this pce report, the fed funds rate had been just a little above the core pce kind of still is, but it's basically right there. you don't finish a tightening process without fed funds theoretically being restrictive above the core pce rate. hopefully pce comes down it means it's going to create that margin of fed funds over inflation. you have a positive real fed funds rate we have to see you have to see what the numbers say. >> i feel like we have to add to our treasury board, a 12-month yield, 6-month yield, because they are shooting up it does raise questions for equity investors yield comparison between the earnings yield, the dividend yield. bonds are more attractive, right? >> they are. i think on a personal finance level, it makes a lot of sense for people to kind of maybe have greater reserves in cash

but it also allows you, therefore, to take the risk in stocks, right? if you're getting one-year yields of 5% t means you have a little more of an ability to deal with volatility of equities that's on a conceptual level i promise you that the real attractiveness of a 5% one-year t-bill is not going to survive the first 15% rally in stock it just isn't. that's the way human psychology works. >> that's animal spirits right this. >> mike, thank you mike santoli let's dig in deep with today's hotter than expected pce report dragging down the major averages does it mean it's full speed ahead for the fed? if so, what does that mean for the markets in the long run? we heard from steve liesman in the last hour that research suggested there's been no instance of central banks fighting inflation without a recession. let's bring in rosenberg research president david rosenberg. he's calling the no landing scenario, quote, the biggest hoax peddled by economists since 2008 because you've been expecting a harder landing, right, david

which doesn't look very likely at this point now either, does it >> well, i don't know why you would say that, sara, because -- >> because the data keeps coming in better and better. >> again, i don't even know why you would say that better for january, but i think i would take the other better out. when you're taking a look at real private final sales, which is the domestic cyclical guts of the economy, it averaged less than 1% growth in the final three quarters of last year, and we haven't even seen the full brunt of what the fed has done that's staring us in the face. real private final sales were flat, sara, in the fourth quarter. and we know that going into this year, the lag impact of all the tightening is going to cause that to go negative. this narrative because, yeah, january numbers were hot, really after several months of really

soft overall -- there's no hard landing is to ignore what the leading indicators are telling you. what you just said, it was emblematic of what we got last week with the conference board's leading economic indicator with the divergence the divergence is the index of lagging indicators just hit a new cycle high the index of coincident indicators like nonfarm payrolls just hit a new cycle high. but the index of leading economic indicators in january, sara, went to a 23-month low so, the question is, yes, indicators are still strong, leading indicators have rolled over in a pattern back to 1959 that has massaged every single recession. maybe in the jim bullard camp and you think, there's no more lags anymore, which to me is a complete nutty assertion because we know there's going to be $10

trillion of private sector debt rolling over this year into a perniciously higher interest rate environment so, i'm not willing to bet against the historical record. i think the hard landing starts in q2 or q3. it's really a matter of when, it's not a matter of if. i don't think anybody is that clever to know exactly what day, week, month or quarter it's going to start but to say - >> your point -- >> to say we're going to have no landing -- >> yeah, you hate that. >> one of the most aggressive fed tightening since 1981 and an inverted yield curve to me is a ridiculous notion. >> i think your point about the lagging indicators versus coincident and leading indicators is one we don't hear made that much it's interesting where does inflation fall on that spectrum? if we really were headed toward a hard landing, david, wouldn't we see a more meaningful decline in the inflation rate? haven't you been surprised to see how stubbornly high it is?

>> i've been somewhat surprised. at heart i really am an economic historian. i don't think it's different this time. and so when i talked about the lagging indicator, one of the key components is service sector inflation, which, of course, we know that the fade is retentive on service sector inflation, but it's one of the components of the lagging economic indicator the one thing we know about history and about inflation -- look, inflation is really -- it's like a race between watching paint dry and grass grow, but it's a lagging indicator. i'll tell you what the historical record says over six decades of looking at it, is that inflation peaks six months into the recession. you see, you look at inflation on its own thinking, wow, things must be booming. it's a lagging indicator and peaks six months into the recession. and it works both ways because inflation bottoms 15 months after the recession ends all your indicator is inflation and the first 15 months of the

recovery, you'd be thinking, wow, we must still be in recession. everybody right now, including the fed. i think the fed has another agenda, which was full square and the fmoc minutes, which is about financial conditions i think what's happening here is that everybody, media, wall street economists, the fed, they're chasing lagging and coincidental indicators. yes, inflation is stubbornly high it's off its peak. it actually peaks after the recession already starts. >> yeah. i'm glad you brought that up, david, because jefferson's paper today says, we've not seen yet a decline in housing services inflation, but recent data on new leases and lease renewals indicate that we soon will do you think that's going to be the tip of this hard landing you forecast or it will be more labor-related? >> absolutely. look, i think -- i developed

what's called the rosy super core inflation index, which is the core that strips out all the amputations. i mean, the rental components, medical care services, financial services, that's a lot of gues guesswork. when you take a look at core cpi/deflator excluding imputed guesswork, inflation has already round down to about a 3% annual rate and i think that once these amputations, especially the rents, which have these three-year lags start to converge on the high frequency data, that's going to take time, which is one of the reasons inflation is a lagging indicator, inflation is going to come down pretty hard. i'm not overly fussed about it i think the fed is focusing on a whole bunch of indicators to justify it's aggressive policy stance i think there's another agenda at the fed, which is about classic martin, we are taking the punch bowl away.

and creating a healthy separation between pavlov's dog, the stock market, and what's happening in terms of a fed policy i think there's a big part of that as well keep in mind, we have the stubbornly high consumer inflation, but we know what's happening in real time what's happening with asset prices. for example, you can see what's happening with the stock market. we're down from the peaks, down 18%, 19% what about, nobody talked about in the past couple of minutes is the housing report today wholesales were very strong but it was all based on sales of units not yet constructed. otherwise, you know, spec buying but what about new home prices average new home prices were down in january. deflated two of the past three months and home prices are down 16% from where they were last summer

so interestingly enough, we are seeing deflation already in asset prices what i'll tell you once again when you look at the historical record is that asset prices will lead consumer prices we will get rapid disinflation the way these things are constructed is probably going to happen later rather than sooner. >> david rosenberg, thank you for joining us >> you, too. >> with what is a contrarian take right now, the whole hard landing scenario david's been there before where he's been more negative than others i know he's been reminiscing a lot in his research notes about -- >> rosy core should be trademarked. still to come, urashia group, bremer, china trying to negotiate peace talks. is warner bros./discovery the new disney ceo of devon as oil and natural gas prices have been falling of

late awonhetrt" is just getting started. dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity

year since russia invaded ukraine? where do we stand? according to our next guest, we are nowhere done, saying peace is far out of reach. let's bring in eurasia president ian bremmer. just as we've been talking the last few moments here, the russian foreign ministry says it appreciates that plan, and

zelenskyy said, i don't think it's a chinese plan at all was it a nonstarter? >> well, it's not a nonstarter in the sense that the chinese see an opportunity to improve their geopolitical lie on the global stage last year the united states has been very strongly consolidating a russia position with g7, with nato, with the european union, and china has felt on the wrong side of that what they're doing now is putting forward a plan that, frankly, could have been written by the indians, could have been written by brazil or south africa the majority of the world's population is actually aligned with pretty much every point of those 12 the ukrainians are not and the russians, therefore, have some room to move towards the chinese a bit. and the chinese have the ability to say, you see, we're the ones promoting peace. where are the americans? they're escalating where's nato they're escalating

politically i think this was a smart time for the chinese to make this move. >> is that why we're also seeing hints that the administration would consider releasing information or evidence that the chinese were considering themselves -- supplying, perhaps, some kamikaze drones or something like that to the russians >> i think there is a very strong desire of the americans, and not just the americans, to let the chinese know that sending military support to russia would be a red line china's position here is, look, the west has been escalating this war you're the ones putting sanctions on, hurting the majority of the planet you're the ones sending all these weapons that are leading to a significant escalation, and we've been showing restraint so, if you're not willing to support our plan, maybe we'll put more weapons out you've got blinken, you've got the british prime minister, and you have the secretary-general of nato all coordinating in the last few days saying, if you

provide these weapons, that's a red line you're going to see sanctions from the u.s by the way, carl, i don't think the chinese will respond by ending up sending weapons because it will actively lead to the position they don't want to be in, which is being tarred by the same brush as the russians are by the u.s. and its allying. >> it's been so fascinating to watch the trajectory of commodity prices in the last year shooting up, energy prices, food prices, fertilizer prices when it became clear how big an exporter russia is a lot of those commodity prices have come down, including energy and oil below. i'm wondering what happens to those bottlenecks. on food, inflation is still stuck really high and there are problems, even though there's a deal in place to export some of that russian grain what's going to happen here? is this a multiyear phenomenon where russia continues to be stuck in some of these key export markets >> fertilizer is still very

expensive. that impacts your crops for the future if you aren't actually putting fertilizer down, then you're going to have difficulties in the coming year, in the harvest. and by the way, you've had two rounds of this fertilizer and food deal facilitated by the u.n. secretary-general and the turkish president. that needs to be extended. there are no guarantees that's going to occur indeed, one of the 12 points of the chinese plan is, keep this deal going, something that is very, very important to the developing world they're the ones that are facing the biggest squeeze when they have their levels of food deprivation and even starvation are going up by tens of millions across the world i don't think they're out of the woods. i think that on energy the europeans have shown that they are capable of truly decoupling from russia. the fact that the germans were able to stand up lng floating terminal in 194 days, that has to be a record

they're going to be in a position next wriinter where thy can even export gas to east europeans if they need it, but prices are going to be high. who suffers? pakistan now can't even import natural gas, the price is too high, so they're switching to coal you have a big challenge for the developing world and you have a challenge in terms of carbon emissions. >> that is fascinating meantime, just to get into xi's head for a quick moment, ian, after doing a 180 on covid and after ending this long-standing tech regulation crackdown, is it likely that he's then going to do a similar 180 on a russian invasion that, to your point about natural gas, seems unwinnable barring some major turn >> i think the 180 we're seeing is that for the first time in my life the chinese are actually taking a global leadership role, or attempting to on an issue that, frankly, isn't a direct natural security concern to china. they've done that historically

on taiwan, on hong kong, on the south china sea. you never see the chinese historically making this kind of a global statement on an issue like ukraine so, in the sense, this is a chinese -- the way olaf scholz came out and said we're going to spend a lot on defense, export weapons. the chinese are now making that kind of a transition you'll also see xi jinping making a trip to moscow in the coming months and that is going to help the chinese patch up that strategic relationship that they've been more cautious about over the last few months the americans are going to be none too happy about that, carl. >> quite a somber anniversary, to be sure ian, good guidance and framework. ian bremmer today. still to come this hour, morgan stanley says jpmorgan could reach $1 trillion. yes, a $1 trillion market cap. we'll have that. plus, adobe moves lower this

morning. reports saying the doj is prepping an antitrust suit to block adobe's deal to buy figma. we'll be right back here on "squawk on thetrt. w dn 7 intsee there are a lot of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two

have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime

like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine.

here's a chart that caught my attention this morning. wrooef seen a lot of activist investors. wolf research sees an advantage here in the market to investor activism, pointing out its basket of names that have faced 13d filings or activist situations has outperformed the s&p 500 by more than 1,000 basis points over the past 12 months among those names we know, disney, salesforce our david faber reporting last week, salesforce could be nearing a deal with elliott management salesforce reports next week wolf points out one name they think could benefit more from activism is u.nileaver

nelson peltz joined the board and they are getting a new ceo the bigger point is activist investors have strung to life. ken mueller presented this in davos. we're seeing a lot more of this, given the weak share prices and the fact you're getting a lot more agitation for change. we just got one with dan loeb and bath and body works. >> it will be interesting to see if they can resolved as peacefully as peltz/iger >> the bottom line, it's good for investors either way because those stocks have been outperforming. we see it with disney and now salesforce. let's get an update as the dow is down 385. seema mody with us >> last fall federal agents searched a park avenue property. that raid and others led to today's "operation klepto capture" with the justice department asking the court to seize properties in new york,

hamptons and miami beach, all valued at $75 million. ford is suspending production of lightning truck for another week as engineers try to figure out why a vehicle caught fire waiting for a predelivery quality check. there were a lot of gop candidates on stage as the party held its early presidential debates in late 2015 and early 2016 we'll see how many are in the running this time around when the republicans hold their first debate that has been scheduled for this august in milwaukee. carl, back to you. >> seema, thank you very much. coming up later this hour, as we said, the ceo of devon energy is with us, as nat gas continues to move lower this year devon stock down 10% so far after plunging on earnings last week take a look at the retail etf. the xrt now on pace for the worst week since july of last year leading that to the downside names that will not surprise you, wayfair and carvana among them at adp, we understand business today

looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another ♪ ♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house. 92% still active? seems high. seriously? it's just a bike. wait. they make a treadmill with an intuitive speed knob? yeah. want to try? 92% stick with it, so can you. start a 30-day home trial today. terms apply.

welcome back it is 11:30 a.m. on wall street. 4:30 p.m. in london. european markets are closing lower across the board 1% declines at least in some major markets like germany euro stocks down 2%. two-fold story to tell you about. germany's economy, it's sh shrinking after a sharp downward

revision first quarter-on-quarter retraction in two years. spending dropping off in 2022 despite all the economic data we've been telling you about this week that has come in better than expected then in asia, new comments overnight from the bank of japan's next leader, reiterating low rates remain appropriate while also teasing normalization. investors trying to read the tea leaves questions over whether he will raise that cap on bond yields the boj has staunchly been defending and already raised once all of which brings us back to the story of the week, i would say, which is the strength of the u.s. dollar, hitting a two-month high today against what was a volatile session. the yen's been weaker. really all of this is about the u.s. and the dollar reasserting itself, guys, carl, because rates are higher in the u.s., the data's coming in stronger. today's pce, inflation data proved that point, that the fed has more work to do.

and all of that tightens financial conditions it makes earnings hard nobody wants to see the stronger dollar the emerging markets don't want to see it, euro don't want to see it, it hurts liquidity. >> definitely creates a situation where things can break easier i saw the goldman sachs financial conditions index is up about 65 basis points since we got the january jobs print that famous print. >> what a reversal from the last fed meeting. remember the market interpreted powell's meeting as, oh, he's not worried about financial conditions, we'll buy stocks - >> disinflation 13 times. >> sell the dollar all of that reversed because the january data jobs, retail sales, consumer price inflation, producer price inflation and the pce numbers today. we bring in mike santoli i'll kick it off with jpmorgan, did you see this, morgan stanley saying jpmorgan could more than double its market value by 2030 as it benefits from stronger net

interest income as america's biggest lender stock still has a ways to go, carl we're talking about a, what, 412 -- >> $412 billion this morning her point, largely, it has to do one of three things, or maybe all. >> all of them. >> improve efficiency, excel revenue or make get rewarded with a multiple that's a premium. >> that's assuming we are in a higher rate environment that's a lasting one. structurally yields will be higher she's trying to make the case jpmorgan is a better way to play a higher rate regime than generally perceived. i think her base case is it's like a 12 or 13-year timeline to get to $1 trillion that's a 7% or 8% annualized growth in market cap presumably it will be similar in book value that's about standard, i guess you'd say. that's a good scenario almost 3% dividend yield on top of that. whereas 12% to 13% annualized growth in market cap would be to get there by 2030.

so, that's aggressive. i'm saying she's presenting it as that's your best case scenario you get a premium multiple, soft landing -- presumably there's going to be a recession in there somewhere, maybe more than one we have to keep those allowances in mind. >> the goldman buy back, that's a quarter of the float, sflit. >> it's a big one. goldman trades around book value, too the math should work on that to the benefit of shareholders long term. >> we're watching an interesting take on the warner bros./discovery. needham asks if it could be the next disney, even after they missed revenue estimates and had the big loss for q4. laura martin argues advantages are deeper after splitting off, owning video games as opposed to park which she says has higher return on invested capital and targets younger audience julia joins us i'm starting to think the bull case is not so far fetched if

net leverage should be comfortably below four times at the end of the year. >> yeah, i mean, there's so many things that really highlight the transformation of this company in the past year the first one, i would point out, is that they dramatically minimized the amount they were losing in their direct-to-consumer streaming business there's been so much conversation, not just about warner bros./discovery but all the media companies in the costs they sunk into these streaming business they lost half as much on d-to-c business laura martin was saying about the video game business. they had a harry potter video game that was a massive success. $850 million in sales with more than 12 million units sold in the first two weeks. so, the question really here is, carl, how much can they replicate that and take their other brands, their other franchises, whether it's superman or lord of the ringss, and figure out how to exploit them in the same kind of way on these other platforms and in the

video game space as well >> which is very disney-esque, that whole playbook. on the other hand, mike, linear tv advertising is declining pretty sharply and a lot of the recovery in the stock probably rests on the recovery in that >> well, yeah, the first maybe pushback to that idea being similar to disney is warner bros./discovery has a much higher exposure to linear networks it's about half the revenue this year whereas it's more of a third for disney the other thing is if you think video games are a great franchise and it's a high return business, i would agree with that but i wouldn't say it has the reliability or scarcity value of disney world, disneyland, being able to keep occupancy up and having that character set. d.c. marvel could follow the same playbook. i understand why analysts like the story because they do have a lot under their control. they can get leverage down there is a lot of cost cutting to be done it's more of a fixer-upper story than it is with disney where it's already highly valued, in a

better neighborhood but very high maintenance costs and a lot has to go right to preserve the value. >> julie, i wonder if you're hearing people talk more about the free cash flow number today or the moderating losses in direct-to-consumer, which obviously were much lower than expectations >> well, one thing i would say for sure is listening to david z zazlov he stressed that free cash flow on the earnings call last night that's front and center in his turn-around strategy and also this idea that last year was a year of restructuring. this year is intended to be a year of building to that point d.c. is not marvel you have these iconic brands like superman, like batman, that haven't grown as much, and in the same way that disney's characters have. you say ironman was a nobody before he was turned into a star by disney and marvel i think there's this question of, what can you do with these iconic brands and franchises and can you take advantage of that better than expected free cash

flow situation to leverage some of that? >> my kids have discovered star wars oh, my god, it is an obsession i've never watched a single star wars now i've seen then them all a hundred times. >> lucas films was a bargain for disney. >> i agree with you. >> thank you. coming up next, boeing moving lower today, dragging the dow down with it we'll break down why and what's next as it is down almost 5% we're watching beyond meat as well, the stock bucking the downtrend, on pace for its fourth best day ever up 16% smaller than expected loss despite sales down 20 in the quarter. at the end of january, interest still 37% on the float we're back in a minute

welcome back boeing is lower this morning a very big drag on the dow they're pausing deliver of the 787 dreamline other this fuselage issue let's bring in phil lebeau to help us understand how big of a problem it may be, phil. obviously, you can understand there's some sensitivity when it comes to production at boeing. >> sure. and i think, carl, the thing to keep in mind here is they have not halted production. they have halted deliveries. and the reason is because a certification issue with the supplier for a part in the fuselage now, we should point out, this is not a safety issue. this is not a case where the faa is saying, whoa, stop flying the dreamliner we're concerned about the safety of the dreamliner. what the faa has said and what

boeing is complying with is, look, we want to make sure the analysis on this part, which was not done through the certification standards that we expect, that it's redone and that it is done to the standards that we expect my sense is this is not going to be a long delivery halt. it won't be long they're not putting a timeline on it, nor am i. at some point they'll resume deliveries here. if it was a production halt, and certainly if it was a grounding situation with the dreamliner, completely different i think this is a case where a stock was up 85%, 90% since october 1st and i think investors have looked at it and said, came a long way in a very short period of time not entirely convinced that boeing has all of the production issues completely corrected. let me pull back a little bit. >> how do these freezes impact demand, if at all, phil? >> i don't think it does, sara i think -- first of all, you look at the backlog. it continues to grow they will be increasing their

production over the next couple of years right now they're probably delivering one, maybe two -- or building one or two a month. they want to get that back up to four and grow from there they are expanding production of the dreamliner at the facility in south carolina. when you look at airlines around the world, they need more fuel efficient aircraft, they need newer aircraft and the reputation of the dreamliner remains strong it's not like people look at it and say, they had production issues these issues come up from time to time not just boeing, airbus. this is not a safety issue so it will not impact demand. >> let's talk about tesla ahead of the investor meeting next week a lot of refrekzs on master plans of the past and how this one might be different >> i think it will be a little different because i think it's going to be focused much more on, okay, we have achieved a certain level of size and scale. now, how do we take it to the

next level and in particular, i'll be interested to see what elon musk has to say about bringing out that lower priced vehicle. some have called it the model 2. that will be at a lower price point. there is no doubt there is demand in the market for a lower priced ev. that's what gm is targeting when they roll out the equinox and blazer that's the sweet spot in the market, $35,000 to $45,000 consistently nothing against the model y and model 3, but even with the price cuts, most people are still paying over $50,000 for them so, what tesla is looking to do, and what everybody is looking to do, can you get that down in the $35,000 to $45,000 range then people will say, okay, i'm ready to go electric. >> phil, thanks. after the break, devon energy shares are up more than 185% in the past three years the best s&p 500 performer in 2021 but 2023 has been a different story as energy prices fall and

production stalls. we'll talk to the ceo next and speaking of energy stocks, check out eog resources. worst name right now in the energy sector as earnings miss estimates. we're seeing every sector down right now. technology is getting hit the hardest. actually -- yeah, technology hit the hardest along with materials and some of the cyclical sectors down there as well consumer staples holding up a little better. wee ckaltoy.cis da 'rba in to minutes ave a purpose in life - a “why.” no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why?

it has been one year since the start of the war in ukraine. we all know it's been a volatile time for energy prices take a look at crude oil over that period, spiking at the start of the conflict. it is now trading about in range this year. but natural gas prices have completely collapsed down more than 40% in 2023 with tensions abroad not showing any signs of slowing what is ahead for the energy market joining us is devon energy president and ceo rick muncrief. it's great to have you on the show, especially today, one year since this global energy shock, the price shock, the disruption, and we've seen prices come all the way back down. how do you think it's impacting the market still, having russia cut out? >> well, good morning again. sara, congratulations on the new role, the segment. >> oh, thank you. >> a year ago today, as you mentioned, the world was shocked with the russian invasion of ukraine and, you know, a couple

things i'd like to say just as opening thoughts is, number one, i'm really, really proud of our company and our industry and how we rose to the occasion and continue to provide stable products into the market to fuel the economy. so, i think as we sit here today, we have seen the we have seen the realities of russian crude continuing in the market and the one thing i would say is even with the 500,000 barrel a day cut that they have talk about, in the back of our mind, we questioned is that truly because of what they want to do trying to control the price, or do they have a supply chain issue themselves i'm not real sure. a lot of change in the last year i will say this, we have not seen the demand really let up. we're continuing to see demand grow that's on the crude side

on the gas side we've had a couple of things number one is europe you saw they had a milder winter than many had feared here in the u.s. we've had a lot of changes in weather, but by and large fairly mild winter in most cases and we also had the outage at the export facility. so you put that all together and natural gas prices certainly have come down >> what's happening with production, rick there was disappointment with your forecast for production do we need higher prices to see more production from you and others >> well, i think for us, the production we reported, our outlook this year, we were impacted by some weather coming into the year. we also have talked about what our shareholders really have asked from us and that is to keep production stable

and so growth, we're looking at it, quite honestly, sara, on a per share basis. we've talked quite a bit about reinstating our share repurchase program. that's for shareholders what we want to stay focused on, keep our hand on the throttle and continue to build a per share stronger company >> rick, it's been interesting to watch the administration, which has been critical of capital returns to shareholders in the industry. at the same time they're obviously applauding what the industry gave to europe in the way of lng last year do you think that supply is making the relationship with the white house a little bit easier? >> energy is a complex issue, carl i'll say this. if you asked me 12 months ago i would say we're not getting any communication between the white house and the industry at all. that's changed they are reaching out more, which i think is a positive

thing. it's a positive thing for america on a number of fronts, security and all of our interest as well. so it's a good thing they are reaching out, but i think the recognition is had it not been for u.s. producers and our ability to keep a stable market, the world would have been in a much tougher place, no doubt >> bottom line, rick, what's going to happen over the coming years? it does feel like as long as we're still in war and geopolitical tensions are heightened everywhere that should support the price of oil and demand for oil is that your take? >> absolutely, sara. we think certainly there are places around the world like china reopening after their strong approach to covid with the shutdown that's going to continue to open up i think what you're going to see throughout the year is just a continual strengthening of

crude. there's folks like the iaea estimated a 2 million barrel a day incremental demand over last year and when you look at the u.s. able to make up maybe a fourth of that, you really wonder in the back of your mind where that growth is going to come from it's not going to be internationally outside of opec plus when you start thinking about saudi and uae. there may be a million and a half barrels a day of excess supply to meet the demand is saying we will have zero incremental supply, and so that's a scary place to be when you really think about it so i do think crude will continue to strengthen throughout the year. i think you will see some continued gas volatility we went into the winter pretty low, quite honestly, when you start looking at storage and

will exit fairly high when you compare and contrast with the five-year average. i think natural gas prices could be soft throughout the year and we'll see what it looks like going into next winter >> i'm glad you brought that up because we've actually seen some european officials say in the last 24 hours, look, we can cut off russian gas and be fine. are we at a point we need to be concerned at all about next winter, or is storage so full that no matter what the weather does in the next 12 months europe will be secure? >> well, i think, carl, that's a great point. europe did have some -- they were really concerned going into the winter and, as i said earlier, had a milder winter than many feared i think coming into next year, europe could be very much on supply we will not have lng facilities for another two or three years and the freeport is coming back

on, the last numbers are at about a 25% capacity we get a little more gas to them i think we'll have to see how it plays out this year. my gut feel now is europe could be somewhat challenged next winter if i back up a few months i was really concerned about europe for next winter. >> it got dicey for a bit. >> rick muncrief, thank you for joining us, ceo of devon energy. >> a great discussion. up next, a tough week for intel continues as their cost cutting efforts go a little bit farther. we'll tell you what we're talking about in just a moment don't settle for silver. harness the power of 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin. ♪ great estimations ♪ interesting piece.

let me bring in my expert. mmm so many scratches... oh those are from my car keys. -such a rich history. -yeah. this won't do well at auction. but at at&t, it's worth a brand-new samsung galaxy s23. -wait really? -mmhmm. what about this? at&t's deal is back. -wow. everyone gets a free new samsung galaxy s23 with a galaxy phone trade-in. any year, any condition. [music - cover of blondie's “dreaming”] with a galaxy phone trade-in. [music playing] ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪ ♪ dreaming is free. ♪ accenture, let there be change.

just a couple moments ago goldman saying following the stronger than expected consumption numbers we got and new home sales they boost their q1 gdp tracking by 0.4 to 1.8. they're already way below the street on recession odds for this year and clearly thinks they're getting closer to what the atlanta fed is saying about q1 >> this isn't a fed or a market, though, rooting for good data on the economy, unfortunately,

because it means inflation will be tougher to tackle it's good to get good spending for americans but if it means hotter inflation it's a problem for everybody. i want to correct one thing i said, a really good call on davos. he only represents the companies against not activists themselves sorry, i know you're watching. let's get to "the half." carl, thank you very much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner stocks on the retreat as inflation fears roil the markets. the investment committee, joining me for the hour brenda vingiella, jason snipe and jim lebenthal and steve weiss. let's check the markets. we're off the lows that's one of the key points we're still on pace for the worst week for the dow since september 23 big tech is down big, the nasdaq is leading the decline as you can se