but why wouldn't you buy the one-year with a five plus percent yield tax advantage and wait this volatility, wait the downside out, and then put money in >> this six-month is getting a lot of talk, too it's almost 5% there, too. >> exactly that's the place to be >> everybody, great stuff. i will see you on "the closing bell." "the exchange" is now. >> thank you very much, scott. here is what is ahead. inflation was trending lower until today. will the fed shift to full attack mode? was does that really mean? we'll game out the scenarios and what it means for the economy and markets. what will it do to housing we're just starting to see things turn around is the fed about to kill the

momentum and wall street has been loving ai stocks, but how do you separate the real promise from the hype we look at some not so obvious ways to look at the technology let's start with the selloffs today. >> yeah. head spinning. they've made a modest attempt to rally late in the morning, and it's been fading here. can you blame them, given the inflation news only one stock is up in the dow, that's jpmorgan, and it's just fractional s&p 500 was higher earlier, and it's faded back down there was a little attempt there. nasdaq is down, essentially i don't want to differentiate too much, but all of them down 3% for the week so a little bit of underperformance from tech, but not touch. the key story is the bond yields the two-year yield at 4.8% it looks technically like it wants to go to 5%. i can't emphasize how much i keep hearing this is now serious

competition for the stock market why worry about stocks short term, given how head spinning some of these changes are. that's serious money being drawn away from the stock market into the bond market. take a look at sectors here. you can see the last few weeks, as bond yields have risen, the dollar has risen, it's put more pressure on emerging market stocks so ark had an incredible start to the year. it's sitting at the low for the month. health care is starting to outperform on a relative base necessary the last couple of weeks after having a lousy start to the year on a relative basis. so you see how head spinning things can be. down-sized leaders today tesla, great start to the year it's essentially topped out right now. amazon, a good start to the year

as well after a horrible last year, and it's sitting at the low for the month of february right now. the metal stocks, also a great stock to the year. that stock is sitting at a low for the month of february. and even the cruise ships had a great start. they were roaring till a few weeks ago. royal caribbean is fading, as well so it gets difficult to figure out what's going on, because the rates are changing the narrative because of inflation the s&p, down 3% for the month of february. but we're up 3% for the year there you go there is your little roller coaster. again, guys, all about figuring out what the inflation picture is going to look like. >> bob, some 3953 on the s&p 500. what do you think the traders will be watching as i try to bring up my email telling us which of the 50 days we're about to hit which averages. these are thresholds people don't want to see us close under going into the weekend >> yeah, the 200 day moving

average, i believe that is 3940 something. we're sitting right on the 200 day moving average we've been above that for most of this year remember, we broke that down trend towards the end of last year, and have been above the 200, and we're sitting on it right now. so that will get a lot of play it believe it's 3948, somewhere around there >> bob, thank you. we appreciate it everyone's buzzing about these stronger january numbers not just inflation, it was the jobs that started this off we got the new home sales this morning. what does it mean for the fed? steve liesman is in new york city those columns are enormous he's got the reaction to these hot inflation numbers. steve? >> we got five or six fed members here what's happening, kelly, as you correctly point out, treasury yields and the outlook for the fedder ma ching higher today,

propelled by lousy inflation numbers. the peak funds rate near a new high at 5.41%. some toying with a potential july hike. the year-end rate at a new high, 5.30%. the big confident here, that inflation numbers here, pc price index a tick higher when it came to the headline number the year over year core rate, the fed has a 2% target here it ticked up to 4.7% but there was also some hawkish fed talk with the new fed governor phillip jefferson saying high inflation may only dom down slowly, and bringing service inflation under control depends on better balance in labor supply and demand. not going the right way with that he says service inflation depends on that better balance

but also the issue being wages being high and consistent with the fed's 2% target. the data suggests that not much cooling in the economy with new home sales beating and the forecast i saw today, economists are mostly boosting their outlook for growth this quarter, up near 2% now all of it raising the question, does the fed have to push down harder on the economic breaks in order to get inflation under control? kelly, i saw your tease about 6% at the top of the show there's not much support for that in the fed funds futures market it looks like the odds-on bet right now, i'll give you a number as we go along here, more in the 5.25% to 5.5% that 5.37% is where the market is don't blink it may change on monday. >> steve, stay with us let's bring in my next guest, she just raised her call for more fed hikes, she now sees

rates, 5. 75 by the end of the year let's bring in michelle girard so you've had enough you raised the forecast. >> we blipgnked, if you will. let's face it, the numbers we have been seeing going back to that strong report, the strong retail sales numbers, obviously the inflation numbers, not only today but the cpi numbers. it's been setting the stage to suggesting that the cooling in the economy, the deceleration in inflation that looked like maybe it was going to unfold as we came into the year, getting people more optimistic, the fed could begin to pause i mean, all the data we have seen in the last few weeks have called that into question. it's left the fed uncomfortable. the last thing they want to do is pause and then have to

restart, because they stopped too early. so we think with the data that we have in hand, with inflation moving up, not down, the fed will take more aggressive action as early as march, moving by 50 basis points opposed to just 25. and they will end up having to do more. so we have that rate at 5.75%, and wouldn't rule out that it hits 6%. >> this is the kind of weekend that the in box is fun to read people drop things like weekly update crazy things are about to happen let me quote here, the risk is now whether the fed shifts back into full attack mode and delivers a larger 50 point rate hike in march. of course, we'll get a lot of the february data before then, so we'll see >> so i think the fed's going to be a little more incremental than michelle suggests i could be wrong

i had the same debate with diane earlier, where i acknowledged you could be right about this, but you'll need the data to break in your favor in the sense that you would have to have a higher margin of inflation showing that what we have seen today is persistent into march another strong jobs report that might seal it, but i think what the fed would prefer to do is move more incrementally. my bet would be that terminal rate does go up, but is more in the 5.40 range i think that's where the market is priced. i'm looking right now, and i don't have a better feel for this than the market itself does, at only 25% or so probability of the 50 basis point hike i'm sure what michelle would respond is yes, but if the data come in as you expect, the market would change and i would agree that is true >> michelle? >> we've only put in a 60/40

chance on 50 basis points. we are continuing to debate whether or not they would step up or not. i think, you know, to some extent, we're listening to the fact that the fed wants to be -- i think they would rather get ahead of it, if you will, recognizing if they do move more ad afres savely near term, the terminal rate won't have to go so high as it would -- >> right, but michelle, that is a change in regime because what the fed did is it kind of down shifted a little bit. it went from this front end loading idea to the responsive quarter. what you're saying is you'll go back to the front end loading. i know there is some support on that we know there's one other person, i'm guessing by the way, publicly here with no knowledge, it might have been neil, because we know that he's in the 5.40 range. i think that powell would support that going back to a 50 to get in front of it.

the question becomes one of a concept of how is inflation going to play out here we did have some success towards the end of the year in bringing it down. are these two reports we have had, are they bumps along the road or part of a new trajectory i'm a little more optimistic that inflation needs to come down again so the fed can settle back into those quarters i would change my mind if that march data is on the strong side >> do we have to wait to find out or is there a better way to get a feel for that answer >> i think we will have to wait, because the next jobs report, the next inflation report clearly will go a long way to altering expectations. but our numbers don't -- even 175,000 jobs being -- for february, it's a pull back from what we saw earlier, but it's still very strong. we do have inflation numbers remaining persistent that feeds into our expectation

that the fed is going to end up having to do more here than they might currently expect >> before we go, michelle, we are starting to wonder about energy prices, either are going lower because we're in recession or if they're not, we can't go much lower what happen it is gasoline prices take a u-turn net gas has plunged. if those get some traction, it's not going to be great. >> that's right. because we're obviously very focused on the core readings, the core readings, core services, that's housing, all the numbers that the fed has gotten us to focus on that don't take into account energy those are going higher with the exception of higher energy prices would be a drag on economic activity. and in some way that helps -- not help, but that leads to a cooling.

>> steve, last word? >> very quickly. i think what's important about the dynamic is that there is nobody on the fomc to argue with her. one of the great headlines yesterday came from jpmorgan who said, who left the doves out there were no doves in those minutes. so if there's nobody to say hold on, let's not press on these brakes, there is only one species of fed, a greater or lesser hawk. >> thank you both. really appreciate it my next guest says the road upward for stocks is narrowing, and for the first time in his 35-year career, he's seeing a better opportunity in bonds. so much to get to here, chris. welcome. i like your analogy. is the fed making a u-turn tell me a little why you think

no matter what we do, we will end up in the same destination >> right good to be with you again, kelly. i feel like the market is like a car speeding down a cul-de-sac it's risen since the beginning of the year, but the road forward is narrowing so either the economy remains strong, as michelle and steve were just talking about, the fed has to go ever higher and higher so the peak rate continues up. or the economy rolls over, earnings fall and we start a recession. in the first scenario, a recession comes, but later and frankly a bit deeper neither scenario is great for stocks, although there is some hope we could be setting up for a strong 2024. between now and then, we have some issues. >> it's the opposite of the paradigms in the 2010s where either stocks go up because the economy is improving or because the fed comes in to support it that worked for a long time.

now you're arguing we're in the reverse of that. some have said they wouldn't want -- you can't own stocks or bonds right now, because we're talking ing about a 6% feds fund rate or higher what parts of bond land would you want to own? >> i would extend the maturities and go out a ways. sothe reason i feel comfortabl is, especially opposed to the equity market. as i mentioned, there seems to be two ways forward. neither which ends up terribly well for the equity markets. both end up in a slowing economy. either it slows sooner, because the fed has already hiked 475 basis points, or it slows later because the fed hat 650 basis points but there are no doves left. i mean, we're going to control this inflation no matter what it takes. so i love holding long bonds in that situation, especially when you compare the risk/reward to

stocks right now look, i own lots of stocks this is a portfolio hedge. but boy, it seems risk/reward to be a good one. rates go up, i lose a little it's not going to be good for the equity market if the fed goes to 6% when the story continues and we dip into recession, i'll do just fine with the bonds, offsetting probably some losses in the equity portfolio >> you know, 4% as you go further out, but still so we can't end it though. you alluded to stocks. domino's pizza, okay, i can go on and on about this it's so funny of all the things. you picked this one. i was looking at this yesterday, and here was my reaction bring back patrick doyle you have a very different take let me share with people you look at this and say maybe all the cards are stacked against them until it doesn't.

tell me about that >> a couple things first of aull, our style is to pick ideas nobody likes. so there's a big delta -- some people like it, a lot of people like it, that was the case with boeing and meta. those have been great stocks from the bottom. but domino's pizza has an additional credit to it, which is that in recession, folks trade down to pizza. so just like the bonds might do kind of well in a recession, domino's might be one of those countercyclical stocks that would, again, be a portfolio hedge. dollar general might be another one. these are stocks that grow their business in recession. domino's has a number of problems i'm not trying to make light of them but it's a strong franchise, the number one seller of pizza in the united states. and pizza is not going away, as anyone with kids know.

so i think they will get it right. it's the cheapest it's been in ten years. so i think it's a good risk/reward. >> their biggest problem right now, not having drivers resolves itself in a recession. with uber, lyft, with those kind of stocks be a similar call? obviously they would be hurt in a weaker macro, but maybe they have an offset there >> the problem, of course, is folks use less rides as the economy softens. whereas i think they will eat more pizza in a recession than go to ruby tuesday's >> chris, thanks for joining us. chief equity strategist at mmai. new home asales hitting thei

high in over a year. we'll dig beinto the disconnect left and every angle of the war in ukraine the fragile energy economics and the state of play in washington as biden doubles down on ukraine's defense. and here is a look at the markets. dow down 510 worst performer is the nasdaq, down more than 2%. n-areaolteye-yr-ds, 3.967. back after this. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones

92% still active? seems high. seriously? it's just a bike. wait. they make a treadmill with an intuitive speed knob? yeah. want to try? 92% stick with it, so can you. rent a peloton bike or bike+. terms apply. i screwed up. rent a peloton bike or bike+. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck.

welcome back to "the exchange." mortgage rates inching back towards 7% after today's moves after spending january closer to 6%, you would think home buyers would be pulling back. what gaves in housing? th my next guess says sellers need to give way on prices. joining me is the ceo of brown harris stevens great to have you back, besz welcome. >> thank you >> why is price the biggest sticking point versus inventory? >> i think we have a supply and demand issue i think inventory is still tight in certain areas for example, new home sales are moving quicker because they're built to sell and existing home

sales have declined because i think sellers want to stay with the rate they have and they're waiting to see what is going to happen so i think it's a little bit of gridlock in certain areas. in connecticut, there are 17 homes on the market, when there's usually north of 200 in greenwich, connecticut, we have 140 homes on the market and usually it's over 800. so there is no intersection of supply and demand, so you see what's going on in connecticut and palm beach where you have good supply and demand, there's more fluidness like in new york city where we are seeing a decent amount of movement in the market >> north jersey, same thing. there's just not much there. so when you look back at the last couple of years and wonder if we have had this great reset, where the millennial population moved out of the cities. there is more of them than there

were the previous generation so there were fewer houses to grab so it was like a giant game of musical chairs everybody raced for a property after the pandemic, and the people who didn't get one are still looking for one, but there's nothing left there to pick is that right? >> it's true the pandemic spurred this housing boom we saw it in connecticut and palm beach, the hamptons, as well now we're back to a more guarded environment, rates have ticked up as we see and everybody, human psychology, people want what everybody else wants. i was talking to someone that went to an open house in montclair. there was like 30 people there in line. we all want what other people are looking for. when you see nobody interested, then you're not interested so i think we see a lot of that in certain areas so we're in a little wait and see pattern in housing but housing, kelly, is a

long-term investment you're not trading like you do many times with stocks it's for the long haul it's your best investment ever you can probably negotiate better there's more opportunity in this market than there was probably when money was cheaper because you can negotiate with the seller a little bit more in environments that are tight. >> here's an odd question for you. but what would it take to get people out of their houses, right? so if we're trying to get people into the existing supply but it's not on the market, what is the biggest holdup >> i think people have to be motivated because of a new job or want to go to a new place we are seeing people leave new york, go to texas and florida. so that will motivate people but i think if you are live thing and you want a bigger house and there's only 17 on the market, you're probably going to wait and see you can't negotiate, you're not -- the prices are really high so i think people are not going to be motivated, unless they can

get crazy prices for their home. that's when people may sometimes. but it's sort of -- we're in this weird cycle in housing, but it's not the end of the world. it's not doom and gloom. there is a decent amount of activity housing markets depend on where you are. every region is different. i think consumer confidence is guarded, but people are still buying and believing in the home buying process >> again, those who didn't get what they wanted or didn't get a chance, they're still out there. bess, appreciate your time thanks so much >> have a great weekend, kelly coming up, microsoft getting buzz over the chat bte we'll look at some under the radar names in today's edition of three buys and bail and here is a look at the dow. down 405, 100 points off the lows boeing, microsoft, salesforce,

the worst performers ckmorgan the only name in the grn. ba after this. again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. you want a loan to build a factory in america? you can't do that. this is what we were up against. nobody builds factories in the us anymore. you can't do that. experts claimed you couldn't do what we did. you want to hire workers here in the states? you can't do that. weathertech has been proving them wrong, for over 33 years. building our own factories, employing thousands, and making world-class products,

right here in america. because when you buy something made in america...we all win. weathertech. (vo) if you've had thyroid eye disease for years and you go through artificial tears in the blink of an eye, it's not too late for another treatment option. to learn more visit treatted.com. that's treatt-e-d.com.

welcome back to "the exchange," everybody the dow's been -- during the session, it's been turning negative on the year 1.2% drop right now, but we are keeping an eye the nasdaq, which had been up as much as 13% year-to-date, is down about 2% today. let's show you the weaker spots. it's the xrt, the worst week since last summer.

among the worst performers, it's not the retailers, but names like carvana, down 33% carvana posting lows of $8 a share. wayfair, 20% drop in active users. dill lard is down 12%. nordstrom, same thing. chewy, as well a lot of contributors to this underperformance check out beyond meat, which is bucking the selloff, almost $19 a share. part of this rally, 37% short interest in this stock, so something to be mindful of and the trading volume, 22 million, more than eight times its 30-day average now over to tyler for an update. >> thank you very much good afternoon, everybody. as ukraine marks the one-year anniversary of russia's invasion with a ceremony in kyiv, germany, france, and the uk are

thinking about giving ukraine much broader access to nato's military equipment, weapons and ammunition to defend itself to give kyiv an incentive to start peace talks. the three countries think there can be a pact with russia, even if russia continues to occupy parts of ukraine the united nations security council today, secretary of state antony blinken responded to china's proposal for talks about any call for a temporary or unconditional cease-fire in ukraine. >> any peace that legitimizes russia's seizure by force will weaken the charter and send the message to would-be aggressors anywhere, they can invade countries and get away with it in south carolina, the murder defendant alex murdaugh is on the stand for a second straight day, denying a prosecutor's accusation that he

manufactured an alibi for the time his wife and son were killed fascinating testimony. kelly, back to you >> tyler, thank you. still ahead, it's been one year since the russian invasion of ukraine we look at the impact the war has had on energy, denefse, and geopolitics, next.

welcome back to "the exchange." today marks one year since russia invaded ukraine, rattling the world and leaving more than 13 million people displaced. as we move into the second year, let's take a look at the economic fallout here at home. energy prices soared initially but have plunged crude is down about 17% since the invasion, and nat gas has fallen nearly 50%. defensive weapons spending, up the u.s. has spent ukraine $47 billion in military aid so far that has sparked debate in both parties. joe biden pledging another $2 billion in weapons as for the latest geopolitical developments, biden made a surprise visit to the region, visiting kyiv and working to shore up allies. vladamir putin backed out of a nuclear treaty with the u.s. on wednesday. china's top diplomat met with

putin this week. beijing accused the u.s. of wanting to prolong the conflict. let's turn to our panel of experts now. okay it's really great to have you guys all here. helena, let me start with you. year two, putin did not think obviously we were going to be here what are you watching for further fallout on energy markets, which have held up relatively well? >> they absolutely did, particularly oil markets there was concern when the oil started that we would see a major reduction in oil russian exports. russian oil production has held up it's basically slightly below prewar levels. the question is, is it going to start to roll? the russians said they would cut oil 500,000 barrels next month

are we starting to see the impact of these european sanctions and of the technology sanctions, making it harder for russia to maintain production. they already weaponized nat gas and cut off 90% of gas exports to europe. europe survived because of warmer weather the question is, what happens next winter? >> and we were talking about this yesterday, could they still use nat gas as a way of saying we could pull back even further on the kind of more than trickling that is still making its way into europe? >> that is the big question, will they cut gas flows through ukraine? can europe build inventory with no russian moll qecules i don't think we're done with the energy concerns yet. >> we don't stay at levels with low with this still raging fred, if russia still has tons of money from their global are energy markets, the revenue

they're raising, if the u.s. is still supplying ukraine with all these weapons, how much further could this go on >> it really depends on how much we push right now. so joe biden made historic trip this week, but the magnitude of how historic it is will be whether or not we get weapons quickly enough to ukraine and whether we get more modern weapons to ukraine, long-range fighters, so the russians can't keep hitting civilian targets. to give the ukrainians a chance to really make a big difference this year, a war of attrition is in russia's interest, not in ukraine's interest so i've been calling for a surge for support in ukraine, knowing a longer war isn't in anyone's interest more people will die, you'll have fatigue in the west this is the time when putin is relatively weak to push harder >> how does ukraine win in a

compressed period of time? how much more are we talking about in terms of u.s. support, international support that could really lead to a victorious outcome in a short window of time >> well, a couple of ways to win. one of them is putin seeing he can no longer get what he wants on the battlefield, and therefore, he sues for peace and negotiates that's going to take ukraine retaking enough territory that he sees no place to go the other is the people around putin says this just isn't good for the country and he gets removed from office. that's hard to imagine so i would put my money on giving ukraine what it needs to push back so that putin is made very clear that putin this year through loss of territory and loss of russian lives, that this is not something he wants to continue >> i just imagine his reaction instead of going there, sheila,

let's turn to you and talk about the defense stocks and the spending, as you sit there and sort of try to game plan this all out. what does it mean for the companies you followed >> more things have happened in defense. defense spending is obviously up we ended the trump administration with a defense budget of $768 billion. now it's up 10% year over year and we're expecting to see the 2024 budget -- [ inaudible -- is a real decline of 1% so that's the first thing. defense spending is up, but we don't think the 2024 budget is enough europe has increased spending.

third, the europe has made it clear that it's going to let ukraine fight its war while the west supplements it with goods we've dropped of $33 billion in supplies, $2 billion today that's focused on uvas and missiles fourth, i think this pivots us to what happens with china and taiwan and that conflict and the shortage of goods, whether it's covid, the supply chain, although the budget is up 10%, the contractors i followed declined revenues in 2022 because of the supply chain shortages. so we have to act more quickly to be prepared for the next one. >> what if the u.s. becomes more fractured in its support in this conflict >> we have to guard against that the message i'm going to send, there's a growing consensus in

the west, that this is really a battle playing out on ukrainian soil about the future, about the global future. so whatever we are spending on ukraine right now, they are finding on our behalf, on nato's behalf, on the west's behalf and if they fail, that means other boots on the ground from nato countries might have to come in. so i think the message is whatever we're paying right now, it's a lot cheaper than letting putin have a victory and then having to pay more later >> and final word, helena. >> that's the big concern, we'll be here next year having this conversation we talk about therevenue that putin continues to take from oil. he's still able to tap the most significant source of funding. yes, there are price caps, but he's still able to fund this war effort through hydrocarbons. >> do you think there will be a bigger effort to deny them the

ability to do so >> the problem is, we have made the decision the price is too high for the west. we have not imposed secondary sanctions on russian oil supports so we are continuing to give access to that one important funding stream >> thank you both for your perspectives still ahead, shares of warner brothers fractionally lower, but up 67% since january 1. 'ln rkg?urn around plawoin wel dig into the numbers

welcome back it's been a bit volatile and shares of warner brothers, revenues missed 2023 earnings guidance a little light. but there are some indications

the turn around plan is working. julia has that story julia? >> reporter: kelly, that's right. warner brothers, they may have fallen short of estimates, but the ceo says while last year was focused on restructuring, this year is about building on the company's strength namely it's valuable ip, such as "lord of the rings." a key sign the company is focused on margins, losses were less than half the amount that analysts expected. those losses are on track to continue to trend down this quarter. the company's free cash flow also grew to nearly $2.5 billion. about 600,000 more than anticipated. atlantic equities writing --

>> one poe ten shall to make money, the new hogwarts video game sold 12 million units in just the first two weeks so kelly, the question is, what are the other brands that can generate revenue stories with? >> the new disney, what do you think? that's the question. maybe warner brothers discovery is the new disney. when i think of disney and what bob iger did so successfully, it was about creating brands, building up the franchises and exploiting them differently, whether it was television or streaming or the theme parks warner brothers discovery does not have theme parks, but they do have this video game division, which could be incredibly profitable for them very different business than the theme parks, but the potential to get the volume out there,

that was $815 million in revenue. so if you look at some of the other d.c. comic properties, if you look at what disney did with marvel, can they do the same thing with d.c. comics they're going to be doing more movies with those popular characters >> big ambitions julia, thank you very much appreciate it. still ahead, from farm equipment to vacuums, we'll get the three buys and a bail, next. stay with us

nothing. nothing. absolutely, nothing. it really is something. as an expedia member, you can save up to 30% when you add a hotel to your flight. so you can have a bit more money, to do even less. because you've got a whole lot of nothing to do and absolutely nowhere to be.

the eagle has landed.

that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game? yeah, it's what we do with xfinity 10g. it's like, you know, the best network imaginable. what the heck is that? those are the bad guys. are they friendly? the 10g network, only from xfinity. one giant leap for mankind.

welcome back when we talk about a.i., the likes of microsoft, alphabet and nvidia are probably the first names that pop to mind what are some not so obvious but important ways to invest in the new technology joining us now is danielle shay, from simpler trading and brings us through under the radar a.i. buys and one bail. welcome. really appreciate this so the first one might be a surprise, but a.i. was a hot topic at its earnings report john deere your first buy. they had this autonomous tractor, a.i. for pest and weed control. tell me about this and why do you like it? >> i like this one, kelly, because they're leading the way in a.i. in agricultural space. the best way to increase production is going to be from buying more land or from finding a way technological wise to increase your production and john deere is doing that

they have a strong customer base and the stock is incredibly strong in this overall stock market. >> all right so john deere doesn't necessarily pop to mind when we talk about a.i. but this you think could be a huge long-term sb beneficiary. what is the timeframe you think we need to be keeping in mind here >> kelly, these are five-year buys for me at least what i like to do with these stocks is dollar cost average when the market pulls back they're a great bear market buy because they're a long-term pick. >> that's the perfect way to tease the next pick we have talked about a lot over the last year or so, it is tesla. the shares are up almost 60%, they dropped 65% last year it's not about the cars but the tech that goes into them. >> that's correct. tesla is still considered a car company, but in the long term this is going to shine as an a.i. company i think we're going to see

through that and the continued news coming out of tesla and his company is that tesla is, in fact, an a.i. company and should be valued as such people are worried a.i. will take them down, the full self-driving. one thing to say we're going to plow a field, another thing can they really have cars out there on the roads safely? >> well, you know, it's always a question, but right now it's in beta and i tell you, i have it myself and yes, there are some issues from time to ime, but with the over the air updates it's continually improving and the technology is incredibly impressive and i think it's going to change the future of driving. >> the headline is tesla is a buy for over a five-year frame i think that's a focus point qualcomm number three here it's having its third straight week of gains. you think that are' cornering the market for a.i. mobile devices? >> >> that's correct they have synergy with 5g in the

cloud as well. as we know everyone has a mobile device this is a space that's going to continue growing over the course of the next five years when you combine 5g plus the cloud, plus a.i., i think this one is going to be a long-term winner and right now it has relative strength as well. so i think for all of these reasons this is going to be great long-term pick. >> qualcomm with tesla and deere. your bail is probably the original a.i. play in the market and if you don't know what i'm talking about, it's irobot, on pace for its third straight year of losses and you're saying people don't be tempted, stay away. >> there's a few reasons i don't like the technicals. it had a big boom and then a bust in addition to the fact that fundamentals aren't there, you look at earnings, they're all over the place but more than that, i just don't like the product and it's impossible for me to invest in a stockfy don't like

the product. i've tried these roombas all they do is run over cords and get stuck on things and they have a ton of competition. i don't like the stock i think it's going to 2020 lows. >> it was cool when it came out, but i think it's good for society a.i. is moving past the carpet thank you so much. appreciate all your time today danielle shay with three buys and a bail a.i speaking of a.i. and chatgpt, we're starting to see more bands and not just schools, we're talking about wall street restricting its use. big banks, including bank of america, jpmorgan, citi, deutsch and wells fargo recently banned chatgpt, the majority of these firms raising concerns about sensitive information sharing and third-party software we'll follow the story and bring you more developments. that does it for "the exchange" today with stocks off the session lows, "power lunch" picks up coverage of the market sell-off in just a moment. there's tyler and ron insana

we're see you on the other side of this break. think he's posting about all that ancient roman coinage? no. he's making real-time money moves with merrill. so no matter what the market's doing, he's ready. and that's... how you collect coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds. ♪ this feels so right... ♪ adt systems now feature google products like the nest cam with floodlight, with intelligent alerts when a person or familiar face is detected. sam. sophie's not here tonight. so you have a home with no worries.

brought to you by adt. welcome to "power lunch. good afternoon good happy friday. i'm tyler mathisen alongside kelly evans. stocks sliding as another inflation reading comes in hotter than expected and this is the fed's favorite inflation gauge. how much more does the fed have to do to bring inflation down to the level it wants how much will stocks be hurt in the process? plus, natural gas prices plummeting an overly. >> problem the ceo of the biggest gas producer. first a check on the markets and we are off session lows. dow down 510, down 365 still looking at the red into the year the nasdaq down about 2% right now and that makes it the wors