good monday morning, i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla. setting the agenda today, cowen ceo jeff solomon as the two-year yield reaches its highest level since 2007 and wolf research teases rate hikes. mark mobius with us, his bold global call. later rockefeller's ruchir sharma says the classic stocks are a bubble. dow did have early session highs, up 300-plus

overall, still circulating around s&p 4k. macro touchstones like ism, a handful of retail earnings, target and so forth and lowe's, and some tech, workday and zoom and so forth. >> tesla having an analyst day on wednesday the theme continues to be how the stock market is digesting the move in the bond market, which is showing sharply higher yields on the bang of strong data today's durable goods numbers, the headline was ugly because boeing was down, it's volatile around aircraft, showed strong demand for shipments and continues higher data. cathie wood told us it's a warm january, let's see what's happening. you can't deny a fact across a number of retail sector, inflation, housing, things have looked better. >> morgan stanley pushing back a few months, the expected date of the first rate cut in their view to march of 2024 >> markets starting to price that out, too. >> the move higher in rates across the board, you're

probably familiar, two-year at the highest level since july of 2007 the ten-year trying to get back to 4, hasn't been able to do that what's been of interest to many investors are the expectations for future volatility in treasury yields, now at the highest level in more than a month. let'sbring in cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli as the market is talking about the vix. >> the vix for sure. people definitely laying some bets with the vix at the lower end and treasury market's version of the vix, the move index also has -- has woken up in the last few weeks. last year really was the battle front for the markets. bond market volatility it reflected the fed sprinting to catch up with inflation to have a credible interest rate to restrain inflation at the same time the inflation data were coming out so wide of the mark remember we went ten straight months with inflation coming in

above economists' forecast that showed you there was this very open-ended and uncertain bond market action that did relax after october we got peak narrative firmly in place, the market slotted into that theory for several months and now it's just picking up a little bit as we have adding some potential rate hikes to the fed plan for this year so, i think it all kind of reflects all the macro issues that we've had to contend with now, right now i wouldn't say it's at critical levels, either the yield themselves or treasury market volatility, but it's definitely something that's getting a little bit more twitchy and agitated and something you have to keep in mind. >> i wonder, mike, if the market is sort of second-guessing the january data it isn't fully on board with the idea that inflation is going in the wrong direction and that rates have to stay even higher for longer, because we're still holding the gains on a lot of the tech stocks for the year to date it's not like the bear market of last year. it doesn't feel that way, at

least in terms of the reaction to these higher rates. >> it's true so far it's not been it's not been that kind of, okay, game over, we're going to go back to make new lows once yields get to a certain level. it's within a range. i think both yields on the longer end and stocks are in a little more of a range what's also unsettling, you say the january data is not necessarily going to persuade somebody who is really in the recession camp that they have to radically change their call. that is true on the other hand, those people who said, peak inflation is basically written in stone and were bullish because we've seen the market kind of look ahead to that, we can get a soft landing. the data have compromised both of those entrenched positions. i think that's why it's sort of hesitating at these levels. >> meantime, we don't probably, mike, talk enough about the pending complications or potential complications regarding fiscal spending and the debt ceiling, which some argue does explain the pricing of the very short end of the curve.

>> yes if you look at the six-month treasury bill and even the other maturities, you can see a little bit of a bulge out there i think there's enough resilience in people's mindset around this to say there's no reason to start panicking months in advance or building in firm expectations of what kind of a crisis, if any, we might get yeah, it's out there i think it's just generally on the horizon among the things we need to be wary of and why it's keeping risk-taking, to some degree, in check, causing people to question the level of equity valuations because of what we have to work through going ahead. >> mike santoli, thanks. sorry. i didn't realize that was mine let's dig deep cowen ceo jeffrey solomon joins us at post 9 good to see you. >> good to see you. >> are you rethinking what kind of year we're going to have based on the rethink of economic data and what the fed is doing

>> no. when i was here in january, we talked a little about this the fed couldn't be more clear rates are going to be higher for longer i heard howard talk about a little earlier i totally agree. he's been very clear and actually i think that has a stabilizing effect because when powell comes on and is super consistent about what they're going to be doing with rates, the market actually gets around it much more quickly i'm not -- >> fine. you can say that the fed's been telling us this all along, but what's different since the last time you were on is we've had this string of really good data. now the atlanta fed gdp tracker for this quarter is at 2.7%. >> yeah. >> so, the fundamentals are changing nobody expected this burst of acceleration this year. >> yeah, i think when you look at markets in transition or economies in transition, it doesn't all happen at one time you get these fits and starts where some data actually reaffirms, maybe we're not done with inflation yet and other data starts to come in and it lets you see that we've maybe

moved past peak inflation. and that's to be expected. we're going to get these abhorrent mobs or numbers that don't necessarily line up because we're in transition. that's a critical element of what's happening here. the labor markets, super tight we know that every time we get a strong labor number, the market freaks out a little bit i'm like, hey, the labor markets are super tight. and the fed is going to stay there with their foot on the labor markets until they can see some loosening of that. >> is it going to be a tough year for the markets >> it's hard to say. last year was a horrendous year. when you look, history proves you're not going to have back-to-back years like that when i was here in january, i did not expect the kind of rally we had i also said, i didn't think we were going to be continuing to put in new lows because the market has its head around it. have we gotten a little ahead of ourselves? was last week sort of an example of, okay, we need to take a little froth out yes. but it's not like we're heading in an incredibly new direction because of one -- because of one inflation reading because of the

tight labor markets. that's just the reality of some data will support that, some data won't you'll get some volatility that's what makes markets. >> nothing bothers him, cool as a cucumber. >> you mentioned abhorrent data. one of my favorite lines this morning is, are we to believe that u.s. consumers purchased more goods in december and january? probably not it's the magnitude of the aberration that has people confused, right? >> i don't have all that data. what we see at cowen is softening of demand. i don't know where that data comes from what we're seeing from companies like target or walmart or home depot is that there actually is slackening in demand those are pretty fundamental bellwethers. i don't think we necessarily need to overlook every piece of date that comes in and overanalyze it you can take a look at the aggregate, particularly retail sales and, yeah, there's been a slackening of demand, a little

bit, or at least not an acceleration of demand i look at that in the aggregate and say, those people know more than i know. >> ipo still not happening m&a, maybe a little bit. >> yeah. >> debt refinancing is up a lot. >> again, if you look at the equity markets first of all, we needed to establish some sort of baseline. there's been more ipos this year already than there were last year that's for sure. and i think seven of them -- >> nothing big. >> no, but seven of them they all traded well six of the seven traded well some big names, people are floating this idea that some big names will be back we've seen a few biotech ipos and we've been mandated on a bunch. i think people are going to begin to test this begin and see how it goes. it won't be as bad as last year, that's for sure. the debt market is a little bit of a different tenor we're still sort of the leverage lending market with banks is still pretty tight we haven't really seen that market clear the way i would

have -- the way i would like it to clear that will put a lid on sponsor-backed m&a for the first half of the year people need to get some things done as we head into the second half of the year, i expect that will loosen up and we'll see more activity in m&a than we have in the first eight weeks of the year. >> we'll see, right? >> biotech, i mean, pfizer, $30 billion reported deal. hasn't happened, but in discussions. you're not on this deal. >> i'm not. >> but you do do a lot of biotech. >> if i were on the deal, i wouldn't be able to comment on it anyway or compliance team would yank me off the stage. >> that's a mega deal. >> that is a mega deal seattle genetics has been an incredible story this is likely what's happening. i think a lot of people say, hey, aren't -- isn't pharma going to come in and clean up the biotech mess that's gone on? the reality is pharma comes in and buy companies that are more fully baked and plug and play in an area they don't have a footprint. we're seeing both, by the way.

there's been a number of deals we've been involved in, smaller biotechs either refinancing themselves or getting together, taking out costs that's sort of more of the things we're seeing. and i'll let you know a lot more after our conferencenext week. we've got what i think is the seminole health care conference. i know there might be another firm out there that thinks they have one in january but most people haven't woken up yet. in march we're all in gear next week, you know, for three days, i'll have a much better handle on what's happening in health care at the end of our conference >> i love that >> there you go. thank you very much. it's good to have you and get some of your predictions. >> great to be here. >> cowen ceo. still to come, mark mobius is with us on where to look for opportunities overseas says some low pe ratios are providing some bargains around the world. we'll dig into the downgrade of best buy, what it signals about the consumer and crowdstrike's ai, three years of pandemic

stocks, zoom, and we'll look at other pandemic darlings as well.

everything's changing so quickly. before the xfinity 10g network, we didn't have internet that let us play all at once. every device? in every room? why are you up here? when i was your age, we couldn't stream a movie when the power went out. you're only a year older than me. you have no idea how good you've got it. huh? what a time to be alive. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. the future starts now.

when i was his age, we had to be inside to watch live sports. but with xfinity, we get the fastest mobile service and can stream down the street or around the block! hey, can you be less sister, more car? all right, let's get this over with. switch to xfinity mobile and save big on the new samsung galaxy s23 series. i should get paid more for this. you get paid when you win. from xfinity. home of the 10g network. turning to a chart raising eyebrows, rbc sees a sharp drop in the cash cushion. consumers and businesses had padded throughout the pandemic, coupled with this week's hotter than expected pce might suggest households are beginning to run a bit low on savings target is set to give returns

tomorrow after the opening bell. we've been looking into these charts now, it's become a pattern of the drawdown of excess savings at one point that starts to get more dire. >> that's the question, right, where is -- wither the consumer, that's where the economy is going to go. 70% of our economy is consumer spending this jibes with what we've heard from walmart, especially home depot, soft guidance, concerns about the consumer trading down, especially the low income consumer, conserving you heard the word discerning about the consumer with the cash piles coming down, inflation starting to bite, there's questions about consumers. target, unlike walmart, they don't have as much groceries that's more discretionary play best buy is later this week. best buy was downgraded this week because it's not just where consumers are spending right now. if you add up the discretionary picture, that's the cause for concern. and i think follows a chart like

this where cash is coming down. >> of course, you have to keep your eye on energy prices as well and how that impacts pocketbooks. i did see goldman had a $100 tar get for the next year on at least brent. they've been relatively hawkish on crude, but we did see gas prices jack up a bit that obviously will have an impact on what you can spend discretionarily on. >> right nobody planned for crude oil to be going back up, but here we are. 75.62 is the latest on wti it's about a percent later this hour, we just mentioned one wall street firm saying best buy not a buy. we'll go into that note a little deeper. later, check out unp, union pacific. bank of america now says it's time to get on board you can read more about that at cnbc.com

let's take a look at some notes catching our attention this morning starting on of in the consumer

space with best buy. bank of america reiterates its underperform rating on the stock citing ricks of conservative guidance for q1 and potentially none at all for the full year. telsey downgrades this expecting consumer weakness to hurt the company in the near term mike santoli joins us to break down the call. best buy, we know this has been an area where consumers have not spent since they've emerged from the pandemic, right, on their homes and appliances. >> we bought a bunch during that time, mike, although we're also going to get earnings from the likes of dell and hp and we'll see how much the channel clears on this hardware. >> when it comes to best buy, obviously not an area of consumer goods, it has a lot of pricing power. in inflationary time, they are not the play, the pull forward and all of that. a lot of analysts talking about heavily promotional activity recently from best buy you can track all the bargains i get that's a headwind. on the other hand, it's 12 times earning, the price to sales is

at the 20-year average, it's a good operator, it's kind of the one survivor in the whole space. i understand saying, keep your expectations in check. they're probably not going to guide in an enthusiastic way, but i'm not sure how much of that is a huge surprise to where the market is. >> right telsey wants to see revenue trends that have stabilized or recover before getting back into the name, which we have not gotten. >> no, we're still waiting, certainly on a forward-going basis for the revenue growth to sort of kick back in. >> are we getting to a period, though, where, okay, we did load up on hardware and accessories when we were really working at home but maybe now we're lapping a couple years where maybe, you know, renewals are decent. >> you would think again, i do come back to pricing on that, though, because you can talk about other hard goods, home depot, they'll push prices through to the extent they can, whereas with best buy, just deflationary categories, talking about tvs and things like that

maybe that's the idea they're not necessarily going to get one of those all-clear moments. >> the other note, carl, that i think attracted your attention was the unexpected ai play, crowdstrike, seeing a bump after morgan stanley raised its price target expects a long runway for annual recurring revenue and points to a vast trove of data positions from its huge pool of enterprise customers to protect it from ai adoption another ai stock, i guess. >> it's everywhere we have snap doing some ai product today. >> i don't know there is a surprise in ai play, especially when the raw material of ai is data this is analysts coming out to defend a stock at a super premium valuation that was really beloved and the stock is down by half but still trades at a towering multiple. you have that kind of give and take under the surface again, i have yet to find a reason to get away from the idea that ai is huge, people have a lot of baseline investments, yet

when it comes down to it, it's just software gets faster and cheaper and easier to use and creates more productivity. whatever you want to call it, that's the business that these big scaleable software providers have been in for a long time. >> i do think it's potentially scary to contemplate the future of ai and cyber converging, you know, a name like crowdstrike defending against -- i don't even know, ai theft? >> yeah. if you just have to scan the entire horizon for potential threats, what you're doing is examining all these interactions across a network, i guess. you know, just in the way they say, well, they're going to be able to be more accurate in terms of medical imaging to figure out anomalies i suppose it's pretty much the same thing here. you're just kind of having a new way for the software itself to be smarter. >> i thought it was interesting, you know, nvidia has been crowned the ultimate ai play, at least in the near term but then we had cathie on who thought the price has been rewarded sufficiently for now. >> she's been selling out of it

in her ark innovation fund i thought it was strange because ai is now one of her buckets for how she's defining innovation in stocks going forward she likes it from a tesla instead of twilio and zoom i said, why zoom she said, ai. >> nvidia, clearly it's hardware it's the actual -- it's the tools. it's not the smarts. i shouldn't say that it's both. but, yes, it has been rewarded the stock is basically flat on a 12-month basis we just had the massive nasdaq bear market. it's gotten plenty of its due. it's $600 billion market cap. up next, emerging markets have outperformed the u.s. markets over the past few months our next guest says, it will continue mark mobius here to make his case. during february we are celebrating black heritage through the stories of some of our cnbc teammates, contributors, leaders in business here is former federal reserve vice chairman and cnbc contributor roger ferguson

>> my heritage and culture as being an african american male has had a major impact on my career and the main thing is that it has focused in on areas where blacks have, frankly, been disadvantaged. the real focus on financial security, financial literacy, retirement savings i think it's really important for everybody, but particularly important for african americans, who have been, you know, forced to be at the bottom end of the income and wealth spectrum and anything we can do to overcome all of that years of heritage and discrimination i think is really important ♪ ♪ why are there two extra seats? are we getting a dog? a great dane? two great danes?! i know. giant uncle dane and his giant beard. maybe a dragon? no, dragons are boring. twin sisters! and one is a robot and one is a knight. and i'll be on the side of...

the octopus. rawr!!! the volkswagen atlas. more room for possibilities. we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? - psst! susan! so let us focus on the how. with paycom, employees do their own payroll. - what's paycom? a magic payroll genie? - it's a payroll app. - payroll is way too complicated for the average person. - paycom guides them through it. missing or duplicate punches, pending expenses, unapproved pto, on and on. - why would employees wanna do all that? - this could be a stretch,

but i think it's 'cause they wanna get paid correctly. i like getting paid correctly.

dow's lost a good portion of its morning gains, up 92 let's get a news update with our bertha coombs. >> hey, carl, here's what's happening this hour. janet secretary is in ukraine. we just learned about the unannounced visit within the last half hour she's been meeting with president volodymyr zelenskyy and other officials and announcing the transfer of the first $1.25 billion from the latest $10 billion package of aid from washington. the official death toll is now 62 after a wooden boat carrying migrants from turkey broke apart off the coast italy. at least 80 people survived, but with as many as 170 aboard, dozens remain missing. and there are clean -- they

are cleaning up in norman, oklahoma, after a suspected tornado moved through the area last night causing extensive damage to homes and businesses a lot of wicked weather out there, sara. back to you. >> absolutely. bertha, thank you. it is just about 11:30 a.m. on wall street, 4 c:30 p.m. in london european markets are closing higher the story abroad this morning is germany. financials leaving the gains germany's number two banks the top performers after being kicked out back in 2018. also higher is tesla, traded here, of course, but announcing its plant near berlin is churning out 4,000 cars per week, three weeks ahead of schedule on production it's analyst day coming up on tuesday -- or wednesday. the stock is having a good day here up more than 4%. the investor focus abroad is really on the german bund, the

two-year yield you think it's happening here? the two-year bund yield hitting a high it hasn't seen in 15 years, breaking above the 3% level for the first time since 2008 the ten-year also at its highest, carl, since 2011. this is a global bond move, which is important to underscore because it's not just about the fed and it's not just about the higher inflation here. because people blame it on the politics or whatever it's happening globally. in europe for sure, the terminal rate now they're pricing in 3.85%. it's unclear whether europe will be able to get there they have a lot softer economic growth and all sorts of problems with energy. the expectation is they'll have to do more for longer, too. >> that is definitely a head-scratcher for a lot of the trading desks this morning, why europe was trading so firm maybe some point into the headline from lagarde over the weekend they would begin in march, does that cannote a

standstill or pause? >> the central pbanks think they should have been more hawkish. that's what powell did, disinflation and we're data dependent and the market rallied off that if the european data turns weaker, the question is, what will she do because inflation is running still too high >> yes. the pound hit a session high as the eu and uk finally reached that trade deal on rules that apply to northern ireland post-brexit. this contentious dispute that lasted over three years. there were times it seemed like this could never -- they could never put a cap on this news. >> they both needed it it's good for both economies and hence the british pound is rallying still a lot of people will look at the british economy and say, they're suffering under the weight of brexit and all these other cross-currents as well brexit doesn't make it easier for them. >> although, dollar index was still sub 1.05 a couple hours into trading this morning, let's get to post to

post with bob pisani for a look at what's moving. >> that's right. 50 feet from you we've lost a lot of our gains. s&p up 15. that's the low print for the day. what's not is fistker, big electric vehicle manufacturer. they had earnings, a little disappointing. they're expected to finally make a delivery on that big suv they've been talking about, the ocean. talking about march potentially for deliveries at this point the important thing is we've been waiting a long, long time they talked they might even be cash flow positive, ebitda positive this year they are going to deliver, they say, 46,000 vehicles that would be quite an impressive feat for them to do that if they can get anything close to cash flow positive, ebitda positive, that would be the better that's the main reason we got an update deliveries potentially in march. one of the things here is they don't actually manufacture the vehicle. they are a contract manufacturer they have a company magazine nat international that's actually making the car for them over in

europe the important thing is it's been a really rough year for the ev makers most of the big names, you can take a look, lucid, they have all hit speed bumps, lordstown, sono, but a nice bump up today for fisker. >> bob, what are you hearing about earnings expectations? a lot of the bears say they're not far enough lower, this is the mark wilson saying, they're market resumes in march. earnings expectations have come down a lot over prior months and we're just coming out of an earning season that didn't feel all that great where are we now >> the problem with the earnings expectations, they have come down they have stopped going down as much because the prevailing paradigm is we're going to eventually see a slowing in inflation and we're going to hit a top in the fed -- the maximum fed rate unfortunately, the data in the last two weeks, sara, is contradicting that the data is now indicating that inflation not only might be higher for longer but might increase month over month as we saw on friday. that's not good.

that's a bad paradigm because now if we see higher for longer and the fed -- the terminal rate for the fed funds rate is higher, no, these earnings estimates are going to have to come down again. they'll need another leg down. that's a major problem and it was the main source of discussions over the weekend, sara >> bob, thanks for that. bob pisani, post to post this morning. let's turn to emerging markets. our next guest says they're the perfect place to look for bargains with pe ratio at attractive levels. joining us on the phone, mobius capitals founder mark mobius it's great to have you back. how do you describe the picture in em given all of the hand-wringing going on stateside with regard to the fed >> looks good, actually. it's interesting to note that while the fed is considering raising rates, a lot of emerging market countries are lowering rates. i'm hearing -- they're looking to lower their rate, brazil is

lowering rates some other countries as well so, it's very interesting to see how this all played out. but in these emerging countries because of the ukraine war, it's beneficial with countries importing oil from russia at a lower price, of course, than they were paying before. so it's very interesting to see what's happening in these countries. i would say the outlook for emerging markets looks pretty good for this year. >> what do you buy with that kind of back drop? >> well, we are very bullish on india. we're still in taiwan in a big way because the revolution is not ending there are lots of great bargains in taiwan despite all the problems with china. and india is growing at a rapid pace probably one of the fastest

growing countries in the world today. that's where we're looking >> is that really a bullish thing if they're cutting rates and we're raising rates? doesn't that hurt their currencies a lot and make it harder for them to pay dollar-denominated debt and just suck liquidity out if the fed's doing the opposite >> well, you're absolutely right. if you look at the dollar index and see it's fallen and a lot of these emerging market -- last year they went down a lot. now they're recovering their currencies are weak. their exports can do well. and many of these countries not that dependent upon imports. it's a mixed picture it depends on what area you're looking at in the case of india, for example, they're getting cheaper oil from russia. of course, they're going to become a bigger and bigger

exporter as guys like apple and others go into india to start manufacturing. >> when you think of these other economies where rates are going down, is there -- i mean, they're zigging while the fed is zagging, is there a point at which there's critical mass ex-u.s. that they can use as a tell for what the fed will do next >> yeah, that's the big, big question because in some ways they're moving ahead of the fed, assuming that eventually inflation in the u.s. will decline, which nobody -- yet but they will, so they're moving ahead of that and saying, okay, we expect next year the -- inflation in america goes down and, therefore, we're going to move in front of that. i think, their interest is in boosting their economy, and they don't want to have high interest rates that will kill their

economy. they're willing to lower rates at the risk of higher inflation down the road in the interest of having their economies move ahead. it's an important point and one we need to keep reminding ourselves because we are definitely not operating in vacuums here in the states mark, appreciate it very much. good to see you again. thank you. mark mobius. >> thank you coming up after the break, sharma on why old bi dhatsie hard when it comes to tech don't go anywhere. these payrol. my business' payroll taxes will calculate themselves. right? uhh...nope. intuit quickbooks helps you manage your payroll taxes, cheers! with 100% accurate tax calculations guaranteed.

we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

downturn, technology has been rebounding nasdaq is up 25% so far in 2023. 14% off its 52-week low. our next guest is warning the rally is showing what he calls an echo bubble, giving investors hals hope that the rally is still alie joining us is rockefeller international ceo ruchir sharma. you're not a buyer >> this is early 2001, because those that lived through that, but you got a big burst as far as the bubble is concerned in the year 2000 with accelerated tax laws in december of 2000 and then a big bounce in the early months of 2001 when there was hope the fed is cutting rates and that bounce by spring/summer

and you had a much sharper leg down so i think if you look at the historical template, what we have seen over the last three months is quite consistent in the path of bubbles bursting, which is they go down by over 35% in the first leg, and then you have an echo bubble, which is the bounce back, but it's really takes up to three years for the bubble to truly burst and prices are typically down 70% on a peak-to-trough basis before the bubble bursts that's the study i did, looking at the ten greatest bubbles of the last century dating back to the great crash of 1929. it's interesting to have you on the same day we had cathie wood on, who obviously strongly disagrees with you and says we're in a multiyear generational opportunity for innovation around themes like ai and blockchain and some of these players, and she points to zoom,

twilio and tesla, are at the forefront and once in a lifetime buying opportunities >> well, that was the story of the last decade. that was right to have said in 2009, 2010 because that's when the rate story started. what history tells us is a very hard theme that works in one decade almost never works in a second decade. this was true even back in 2000. as you well know then, every single idea that came up in 2000 eventually worked. some are trying to say the end of technology. technology will always be around with us. so, those ideas will work. but it takes a long time for them to make money, sespecially once valuations become very high the point i have here, even back in 2001, a stock like microsoft, it went down for many years after that and it took 15 years nearly for microsoft to recover

its all-time high back then in 2000 that's how cycles play out it is very, very rare for a very hot team of one decade to inflate and be the team of @a second decade. that just hasn't happened in history. >> it's provocative, ruchir, but are you taking into account maybe the idea that technology is not linear progress, maybe it's more parabolic progress as technology gets compounded on top of technology? >> yes that's what i wrote back ten years ago, which is it was going to be america's decade because of technology. as i said that, that was the right narrative to have ten years ago. or even five years ago but things have changed. every time you get a significant monetary tightening cycle, the bubble or the hard team of the previous cycle bursts and you end up with something new that comes up

and that's really what i'm betting on, which is there's money to be made in many parts of the world, in many parts of the u.s. market as well. it's just not going to be in the bubble, the hot theme of the last decade, even taking into account that it's a multigenerational play every idea in 2000 eventually made money, become profitable, but 2000 was not the year to invest in technology if you have a 20, 30-year time frame, maybe yes if you're looking for the next five, seven years, i would be selective and don't buy this theme. this is up once in a generation buying opportunity that was five years or ten years ago, not now >> so what is it what do you think is the next leadership area? >> yeah. that's always harder to call still, i feel that in the u.s. market, commodities, industrials, all places we have

not invested enough. where we have underinvested. internationally, for the first time in a generation, i think banks in places like europe, japan, emerging markets are looking interesting. i think the whole theme is this, which is we have underinvested in the physical economy and overinvested in the digital economy. i saw this great graph this morning that for the first time now, the amount of advertising online, digitally, is greater than the amount of time we are spending online. that's a huge change as you know, five, ten years ago we were all talking about these legacy businesses, how advertising is still going to television that's switched now. people are spending more time on television than the amount of advertising share that tv's getting. these trends have flipped. things have changed and that's what i'm accounting for now. >> ruchir sharma, always provocative. thank you very much for joining us with your latest take. >> thanks. >> from rockefeller institute.

after the break, three years of pandemic stocks, zoom after the bell tonight, cathie wood joined the show in the last hour e ldt get a sound check on wha shto us, if you missed it. don't go away. go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable,

emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson.

after the bell tonight is zoom, one of the pandemic's best performers, as you know, and a big winner for ark innovations over that period hasn't been great, losing half its value. kath wood reiterated this

morning an exclusive. >> if you look at zoom's patents in the last few years, they are roughly the patent-pending or patent applications, almost half of them are around artificial intelligence. intelligence zoom and microsoft will take this market. it's a $1.5 trillion market per year, and nobody is going to rely on just one service for communications we do believe that zoom is very creative and with artificial intelligence it's going to deliver some very interesting products and services over the next few years >> zoom and a.i. are the full installment of the re-imagined tech check starts today. >> we are going to get to that by the way, guys, i am excited

to debut the newest version of "tech check. kathie spoke about market dislocation, and she said that about five times and that is quality versus unprofitable, and classic case of a product that got its clocked cleaned by microsoft teams and it's docu sign as well, and salesforce reports on wednesday, by the way. one note this morning says investors may or may not be living up to its promise for investors. those questions will come up in the next week with a lot of the names reporting. >> how much have investor expectations been reset around some of these stay-at-home covid

winners that have given back a lot of business and had to adjust on their cost structure >> they were reset last year, remember they had huge valuations running up to the pandemic and then came back to earth, and this year has been remarkable because they have seen huge run ups, and zoom is up 10%. the big theme, of course, is profitable growth and zoom is one of the pandemic darlings that were able to manage to achieve net income during the pandemic, and you mentioned stock-base compensation, what does that do to zoom earnings? yeah, it gets the eps higher, but when you strip it out it's about a 13 cents gap it's not enough for these companies to say they are profitable i think investors will look at the quality of the profits when everybody in tech is doing the

layoffs and cuts more efficiently. >> you talked to how that plays into her software picks, and she mentioned it about zoom, and microsoft, google and software names, to capitalize on this, we are looking under the hood and trying to size the chatgpt opportunity, and it could be app plausible -- nvidia, speaking of the tech darlings, it is seeing a huge rebound this year unlike zoom and some of the others, here's the case for how the fundamentals could keep it going. >> so even though it had a huge run up on earnings on the ai story, you are saying a lot more to come? >> yeah, exactly they looked at

the total of the adjustment -- remember, that was all the rage when the tech companies were going public over the last few years, and investors have put that to the side to focus on the cost cutting, but for nvidia, the story is more about the potential opportunity, a bigger total addressable market or we will put it good ole top line growth still layoffs are the bottom line over the weekend we heard about more cuts at twitter and meta. it's a push and pull cost cutting has worked so far for tech stocks this year, and now investors are starting to ask, what does it looks like for a comeback, more layoffs, more cuts there's more workforce reductions, or from a transition back to top line growth and that could come from a lot of places that you are talking about recurring software and rebounding in china, and it's

repositioning these companies like meta and twitter, and could it cause them to lean on some of the macro and fundamentals >> it's interesting how the conversation has shifted to this new supposedly new generational opportunity in a.i.? >> absolutely. >> you hear about them talk about a.i.s differently, and it's hard to separate the news from what is real. on a.i., a lot of them are investing on this. and we're in the early stages, and it's not over behind thank you. after the break, the economic and literal warren buffett with some harsh words for buyback critics, next. for businesses of all sizes, there are a lot of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network.

you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™.

closing out today with what we are buzzing about, warren buffett not afraid to let buyback critics know what he says it was a short letter to shareholders, and he had a great negative there, and he writes when you were all told repurchases are harmful to

shareholders, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or silver-tongued demagogue going after sharply the biden administration, and buybacks are driving the action and predicted to reach a trillion dollars this year >> i asked kramer this morning if buffet was referring to the president or warren, and he said when you put illiterate next to that, you don't want to be naming names >> helping the stocks out. you have seen a lot of big ones lately, goldman sachs, meta. >> yeah, by the way, bringing your attention to the headline from the atlanta fed

in the last 20 minutes or so now looking at q1 gdp at 2.8, and i noticed goldman this morning was looking for core pce at 3.3 -- sorry, at 2.9 at year end and now at 33. >> the estimates of the economy is going up. >> trying to get back to 4 k let's get back to the judge and the half at this hour, bracing for more volatility. what new trades could be revealing about stocks and your money. joining me for the hour today, there's joe terranova, steve weiss and amy raskin and s