went down that much? >> reporter: a seven percentage point drop is nothing, tyler, but over time there has been progress but it's been on a small base. >> we appreciate you being with us to watch "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you very much welcome to the "closing bell." i'm scott wapner this make or break hours comes with stocks trying to hold on to gains after an up-and-down session. hereates scorecard with 60 minutes left to go in regulation volatility the name of the game again today. interest rates remaining at multi-month highs which is capping the action in stocks which are trying to rebound from the worst week of the year, and that brings us to our talk of the tape whether it's once again time to be bearish as so many are or bullish like some of the most steadfast optimists are attempting to be let's ask victoria green, g-squared private wealth chief

investment officer and cnbc contributor and with me right here at post 9 welcome. good see you in person. >> thanks, scott. >> you describe yourself as a reluctant bull, though two weeks ago, not even, you said we're in the beginnings of a new bull market. >> i know, i know, and i'm so reluctant to say that we're in a bull market but you can't ignore what the technicals have done. we put in potentially a lower -- a higher high and a higher low, sorry, and when we look at the markets, we look at the tape, you've got to look at this and say, hey, we're holding here at 2,900-day moving average we're holding at the retracement levels we're holding the new potential up trend, downtrend line and you can't fight the tape here and earnings, most likely, we'll see revisions go positive. we think earnings revisions will bottom out here in q1 and once earning revisions bottom which we've seen they are holder in february. >> we'd be right where we are now. >> i know, a little bit. it's scary we don't have the fundamentals necessarily to support it but

everybody hates the beginnings and end of a bull market because it makes no sense whatsoever nothing supporting it on the macro side. >> itfeels like the talking points around it are much harder positioning is not what it was at start of the year and hedge funds aren't giving you a bid and technically, we're watching s&p as we have this conversation, gave up 4000 we broke 509-day it's not like a multiple on the market is cheap ever. >> never got super cheap remember a couple months ago we were talking about this we were in the bear market, can the market rally without tech in the sanes no obviously you can't rally without the big mega cap tech and now can you have a bear market if tech is rallying, and i don't think you can, and right now there's a lot of reason, a lot of momentum behind mega cap tech rallying so i think it's almost the inverse of what we saw in october when markets were coming down. you couldn't fight it with the big cap falling apart at the end of q4, but now tech is what's

leading us out and it's the same thing. don't fight the bull market and don't fight the mega cap leadership. >> now, i want to bring up something had a dropped a little while ago from marco kolanavik because i want your reaction to it it kind of flies in the face of what you're arguing. history implies that for the current level of real rates the s&p 500 multiples is two and a half times overvalued. higher for longer rates create negative external tis including higher interest costs for larger assets and asset write-downs and credit losses. as much, risk-reward for equities remains poor in our view reinforcing our underweight equity stance. this is from somebody who was bullish for longer than most. >> i know. >> until he saw the writing on the wall. >> and i get that. you are fighting some macro

headwinds, without a tout. looking at the it can calls and the fundamentals and the mac row, the macro headwinds are huge, that inflation looks entrenched and i get's problems there but the consumer hasn't broken everyone is waiting for the consumer to break. when will we see the consumer break and unemployment break we haven't seen that yet the equities and econhave been stronger than anticipated. i call it a teflon mark. yes, we're expecting the spending and income ratios haven't been where we want to see them but if the consumer doesn't break you won't see these things happen and the consumer has been extremely strong so i'll bet on the u.s. consumer. >> how do you counter what he calls this bond equity divergence, right? you've had rates move higher. >> sure. >> and for the most part stocks have yawned until now. >> until february. >> yes, and then we saw the correlations increase. one, i think the dollar will still rollover and the headwinds yield coming back up and dollars

coming back up and we're coming back to trend, 2022 trend, and a lot of that is more dollar than yield because when the dollar comes down that helps everybody and multi-nationals, and we're testing but we couldn't get back above 4 on the ten-year. that ceiling held so i don't think necessarily yields will go high, and i get the yield code inversion. i understand that looks really, really ugly, but if you step back you realize there are a lot of positives in some of these stocks and i won't fight a mega cap tech rally >> how do you make the case, and just go with the bond idea, how do you make a credible argument that stocks are more attractive than bonds >> we're not we're long bonds we think bonds will have a great year, a great year for fixed income we like the treasuries and some of the credit. i think some credit spreads are a nil narrow, but i do i think there's a time and place for duration i do think equities are attractive and you want to look a little bit growth year because you're difficultened yield on the s&p 500 is well below the

ten-year treasury. i think you'll see the rallies happen i'm not advocating that this is going to be a stampede i'm saying i think the lows are in, and i do think this could be a decent year on the market. doesn't mean we're not going to have corrections or consolidations like february may see a little stumble here or there. generally i'm bullish and i have become a buyer of these dips versus the seller of risks. >> you're a big believer in this mega cap move. why do you think it can continue, especially if you say, okay, some of it was positioning because nobody was poxed for that rates went down. those stocks win the and now we're normalizing yet again and it's only a matter of time before the mega caps and the rest of technology and the nasdaq, by the way, roll over. >> oh, did it. >> it's only a matter of time some say before that happens hasn't happened now. why do you think it will continue >> because i think we're capped out at 4 on the ten-year i don't think yields will move higher even if the fed goes three times instead of two you've got the june high coming in because of

the sticky inflation, but i think we've reached peak rates on the ten-year. we can have periods of up-and-down volatility but i won't fight that i think the lows in. i think we've got good -- where our resist sans is now our supports and look at this. the sectors that led us last year, energy, industrials, especially energy two years in a row, we still like our energy companies. they are just out of favor historically you don't see a sector lead the market for three years in a row you saw people jump in wouldn't we all like a time machine and go back and buy facebook and tesla in october, like who wouldn't want to go back and some of that is they got cheap and repriced and i'm not going to fight some of these if you look at short interest and their trading. nothing got super cheap and that's the argument that the bears have right now we never got super cheap we never really hit, fully oversold 14 net times. >> never had a crazy exit latif moment in the market which some say yet to come. let's bring in mira pandtit.

you've heard this topic. i've read you the note what do you make of it >> i'm not sure we have to retest lows. we have to be a little cautious from here. if we think about where we came into the year markets were trading at 4.9% and today they are pricing 5.4% and yet we haven't seen a huge selloff associated with that re-pricing, so i'm a little bit nervous around the fact that the market is still up year to date. >> that's kind of what he's pointing to, right this, divergence of as you say the rates moving up and the equity market sort of just whistling by the graveyard, so to speak >> either the stock market is going to hold remarkably well or we're in for an incremental downside i would be biased towards the downside because we see that markets are reluctant to give up rallies when they happen, and i think we need to see a little

bit of compartlation there not a massive amount because the journey we've been on is from 0% twice 4.6% rates the fed is moving from power to finesse so what we're seeing in an incremental is the fine tuning and the market also trades, therefore, in a tighter range which is why i don't think we need to go back to 3500 but at the same time where we are feels a little too optimistic. >> nicole, how do you see it >> wide range bound rest of the year really flat market overall and with that just the consistency thematically is the market hasn't responded to pricing in as high of a terminal rate we're all talking about. we went into the year at 5.25 and we're starting to push further. the sped firm in its regard that it's managing to 2% while we're having conversations about is 2% even real given the changes to the money supply we have to price it in at some point. whether we test october's lows, we don't really buy it, but range bound here on out throughout the course.

>> s&p and nasdaq now at session lows as we keep our eye there as we have the conversation victoria, even you add mitt that the fed isn't done. >> no. >> you're going to get three more hikes. >> yeah. >> 75 basis points total so you go from what is -- 8 is not enough in terms of hikes you get to 11 hikes, and we're still going to be in a bull market. >> yeah, because that's what is anticipated now. if you look at how the market absorbed the pce numbers or the inflation numbers and the job print, they said we'll put in another hike and it barely blipped. yes, it's gone down in february 200 basis points given whatever index but it's been able to absorb it because it sees an end in sight i have to credit the man group on this, the fed is going to go after inflation like terminator and sayror, conor so you've got to go full bore on terminator and put him in the full molten lava lake. can't leave any bit of inflation around you've got to kill it so i do think the fed will be in kill mode and stay higher for longer and i think that's priced. in the only thing the market

hasn't priced in a bad earnings recession or that we see a hard landing. >> or a recession to begin with or a very hard landing >> what do you think is priced into the market right now, meara? >> i would agree that we haven't seen the worst of things priced in terms of recession. even a mild recession isn't reflected in the price right now. at the same time i don't think we're totally priced in for the upside of avoiding all of this we don't think we'll avoid a recession. we still do believe that the economy falls over in phases and we're in the early phases where housing and manufacturing are weak and profits are weak and getting weaker employment is still very strong, but we can't, you know, hang our hats on that it's too early, so we still want to be prepared for the fact that things could get a little bit worse. >> how has housing rolled offer? >>y with had an 8.5% increase in pending new home sales in january. >> let's not act like the party is restarted rates have come down let's back it up with another solid month as rates have moved a lot higher.

>> two gdp quarters where you had a 25% contraction in the housing component and we've seen the numbers roll over pretty consistently on a year over year basis. there's a bit of upturn and i would fully acknowledge we've seen more momentum in the economy over the last month, but, look, when you oordt cup of coffee it's hot. 15 minutes later it's a lot cooler i think that's the trajectory that the economy is on. >> how would you address the idea, nicole, that bonds have gotten too attractive versus stocks which carry too much risks and unknown so why even bother at the moment when you have a much more attractive alternative? >> because the pivot point is too sudden, and i think that's where it's investing not trading which becomes the narrative for this year. the buy and hold analogy i think what we're seeing is strength in the top line, weakness in the bottom labor costs continue to adjust for that how that flows through across sectors is going to be important, so when we talk about a cooling economy, the strength and the resilience of the consumer is predicated by strength and resilience of the

labor market which -- which just pushes on that wage growth aspect, and so it -- it's hard to price in a recession until we see some movement in the labor market, and i think that is where wall street is hanging its hat right now. that's why the robustness of investing in equities. where are you putting the money when the treasuries come due >> even though you think you could get some incremental pullbacks, you do suggest that it's okay to buy into some more favorable valuation areas in the market which are what? that's going to be the hardest question for people to try and figure out what is cheap enough >> when we think about what is cheap enough, on the equity side, certainly seeing that from an international perspective we'll see international stocks trade at a 28% discount to the u.s. usually maybe you see a 10%, 15% discount because that's so pronounced i think there's more room to run because that is where you might see positive growth surprises and also earnings surprises. the fed pauses

the dollar comes down a little bit more that should also be a tailwind, and, you know, when we think about the cyclical sectors and some of the air glass can do well in a high inflation environment and where rates are higher, have you 47% cyclical exposure in europe, 27% in the u.s., so to get a little bit more balance and diversification at a good price i think you see that in international stocks again, bonds when you have yields at this level, we had a lot of clients saying at 3.4%, where we were just a month ago, oh, i missed the opportunity to get into the bond market. >> that's my point. >> here it is. here it is. >> right, if you missed it here you've got another great opportunity. let's finish on the idea that victoria puts forth about teching right, that maybe this move that we've had, this, you know, countertrend move in technology to start the year is sustainable which it has to be in your mind for this rally to actually be a legit bull market. do you, meera, believe that it

is >> there's a couple of conditions we need to see in mega cap tech. valuations came into last year really high. reset a little bit still expensive in some places so be cautious there we have a much more realistic expectation what have some of these companies can do from a profits perspective, and they are making some of the necessary tweaks to hiring and expenses in order to bring that further in line we will get a pause in rates at some point and that should alleviate some of this uncertainty around tech so i don't necessarily think that tech is a bad place, but what i would say is if you own u.s. equities you probably own a et pre-good slug of tech already just because of the concentration in the index overall so something to be mindful of in terms of how much exposure you have versus how much you want especially because the growth rates in the last 10 to 15 years in tech are probably not going to repeat themselves in the same companies over the next decade. >> that was great. love the conversation. thank you all for being here meera, nicole and victoria, thank you. >> just getting started on

"closing bell. coming up, economically illiterate legendary investor warren buffett slamming buybacks and break it down scanned what it means for your money the twitter question of the day, it's a simple one, are you in favor of shared buybacks head to cnbc at kleblat cnbc you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. ♪♪ inner voice (kombucha brewer): if i just stare at these payroll forms... my business' payroll taxes will calculate themselves. right? uhh...nope. intuit quickbooks helps you manage your payroll taxes, cheers! with 100% accurate tax calculations guaranteed. you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those.

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we're back with 40 minutes left in the trading day. let's get a check on some top stocks to watch as we head into the close. kristina kristi kristina parsenevelos is here with us. raidious global stock sent soaring, the stock is now trading at 16.33 and now for the other deal we could see the ftc step in to block intercontinental exchanges $13 billion takeover deal for mortgageth mortgage data company fwlooikt sh >> thanks very much. the war on share buybacks drawing in a major new player to defend that practice only the world's most famous

investor warren buffet writing when you were told that all repurchases are harmful to the shareholders or the country or particularly beneficial particularly to ceos you're listening to an economic it literal or devil-tongued dem gag. joining me now is jimp lavin that will and the author of "stock buybacks, the true story. you literally wrote the story, what is the truth? >> the truth is more complicated than what the politicians care to understand. some of the buybacks are actually associated with stock employee compensation plans so when they pay employees in stocks they are trying to avoid

dilution the tax legislation that i've seen and all that have does seem to understand that, but then the other side of it is that the stock buybacks are just another way of returning cash to investors, and it's a legitimate way to do it, and it's certainly an alternative to dividends, and it benefits everybody and everybody who happens to own stocks not just the ceos so puff fet is right on. >> what kind of tax advantages though does a company have for doing buybacks that's what some of the pushback would be >> well, i think that clearly when they pay out the dividends then the investors have to pay tax on the dividends, and so if they buy the stocks back and that has a positive impact on their shares, i guess there's really no stock -- there's no tax implications right up front, but that's something that the

tax laws maybe need to address rather than politicians needing to address with a tax increase. >> jim, you ever buy a stock because of a stock buyback strategy >> i don't but i really like buybacks when it's executed properly it concentrates the amount of earnings that i as a shareholder retain ed pointed out a lot of times that the share buybacks sop up excess shares given out by share-based compensation i don't really like that i like a company like apple or like citigroup, and this may surprise you, both of those companies, you look at the annual reports year after year their share counts go down probably doesn't surprise you with apple does with citi group probably but i as a stake shareholder is now getting a larger percentage of earnings than i otherwise would have so i like share buybacks. >> would you rather own a company who had a good dividend or a good buyback program? >> buybacks because of what ed was pointing out. >> really? >> if i get the dividends i get

taxed right then and there if i get the share buyback, i have an increased share of earnings that may or may not be paid out in the near term. maybe they are going to reinvest in the business and be even greater dividends way out in the future and those taxes are pushed off so the tax advantage that ed points out is very much felt by me in preferring buybacks. >> ed, what would your response be, you know, when you hear an investors, like jim lebenthal say i would rather buy stock in a company with a great buyback program rather than a dividend. >> the buyback strategy of corporations solves the problem of the double taxation of dividends. i mean, the money that you get as an investor of dividends has been tagged at the corporate level before they were able to pay that out it comes out of after-tax corporate profits and then it goes into corporate cash flow. this notion that the buybacks are at the, tense of employee compensation or that it's at the

expense of proper capital spending is ridiculous, because the reality is, you know, particularly now in this very tight labor market, workers are certainly getting their share of the pie, and at the same time corporate capital spending has been basically at a record high. >> the other -- if we want to call it the other truth in all of this, since that's how your book was titled, just because a company buy backs its stock doesn't mean that was done at the most advantage time, doesn't mean that it was necessarily quote, unquote cheap when they did it, and certainly doesn't mean that it's going to have some accelerated, you know, route higher as a result of a buyback, does? >> we don't really have -- i haven't seen data where it breaks out the buybacks between companies buying back shares to increase their earnings per share versus companies buying back shares to offset employee stock compensation to avoid dilution if we had, that i think we'd

have a better handle on exactly what the buybacks really are all about, and i think we would find out that a majority of them are in fact related to try to increase earnings per share as an alternative to paying out dividends, another way to pay shareholders, and then i think a substantial amount is used for stock employee compensation. >> maybe all buybacks, jim, last word to you are not created equal. maybe that's part of the moral to the story >> that is part of the story and ed is pointing out and what you're alluding to i don't like it when the numbers go up which means they are sterilizing the

compensation-based company. >> there's a big list of the stock buyback announcements. there's been massive ones, as you see. chevron and meta certainly leading the charge and that's really when you start to get the ire of politicians to say the least. this is a debate that will be continued. ed, thank you. jim thunder baythal, our thanks to you as well. bank of america's chris hyzy r e ack who gives the forecast fothfed and how you can position your portfolio amid all the uncertainty. we're back on the "closing bell" right after this fastest reliab. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™.

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stocks are trying to stage a rebound today with a major averages coming off their worst week of the year our next guest says investors should remain patient to take advantage of further weakness in the coming months. joining me here at post 9, chris hyzy, bake of maryland private bang cio welcome back. >> thanks, scott. >> we're trying to balance today and not doing that great of a job. 33 points higher on the dow. risk/reward still not good

>> it's not bad. it's not bad the risk/reward there's still a big fluid environment out there. we characterize it as being human which is there's a lot of distortions trying to reformalize. we all talk about them right now that seems to be at the top of the list is yields, trying to reformalize the back end heading a little higher and putting pressure on risk assets. i'm not going to say this is a typical of a workout after a cyclical bear like we went because nothing is really typical right now. you're not looking at typical capital markets re-pricing something? that we haven't seen in a long time for us the risk/reward is not bad. it's not great. >> how can it not be bad if you point out what rates have been doing? some are suggesting, as i read earl, this marco kolanavik, the fade the bond equity divergence. bonds are telling the right story and equities haven't woken up thus risk/reward for stocks aren't that great? >> i ask the question what haven't equities moved up to yet

in the moves last year indicate where earnings deteriorations will be? maybe, and right now we're backing and filling because investors are trying to reposition portfolios for the next cycle, not necessarily the cycle we left so there's a lot of room to go there and the big market cap sectors is what's pushing pressure down. when you look at the old economy areas, the market cap there isn't as large so we can't get out of our own way so it's a backing and filling type of environment, and weakness this year in our opinion should be bought. >> so you're a buyer of weakness, not a seller of strength >> that's correct. >> oh. >> we're a buyer of weakness to prepare for the next long-term bull market, and that should be driven by real earnings versus pe expansion if you get real earnings, that's a much better bull market than pe, pangs. >> how much weakness do you think we might get that will give you a greater opportunity to buy into? >> there's three or four different big scenarios that can play out i'm not even going to talk about soft versus hard landings because the reality is it's somewhere in the middle when you roll it all together

you can see another five, 5%, 10% weakness regardless of what the weakness and driver is, we have to see what's beyond the weakness secondly in yields, there's a bull market in yields as well. look at what the front end is giving us, the opportunity to gain cash flow and take that cash flow and reinvest it back into equities. >> people who say, well, the risk/reward is better for stocks and then go right to bonds are attractive where is there more value right now, bonds or stocks >> where is there more value, right now in the very, very short term for the next say three to six months or so, the front end of the curve >> those opportunities have existed for the prior six month, too, have they not >> not necessarily because yield have been going back and forth they have been on a constant move up at the front end the back end is telling us some sort of a recession is coming, so what do you want to do with duration you probably want to begin to

extend duration at these levels. use the front end of the curve and get the cash flow and reinvest knows longer duration assets which happen to be equities. >> and give me your best i've got to go best idea in excities what >> old economy, old economy. energy and infrastructure. >> and industrials which have -- >> industrials, part of the industrial sector, and at the heart that have is automation. >> all right great to see you. >> you too, scott. >> good to have you back chris hyzy joining us. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. >> we have more regularity scrutiny that could kill a major media deal i'll explain who is involved after this short, short break.

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we've got 20 minutes or so before the close, and there you go there's your dow which may just go negative while we're having this conversation with one another. the dow was good for 373 at its peak, but it's basically given all of that back we're watching rates which are at the multi-month highs, nasdaq has been the leader today, but it's given up a lot of its gains, too we'll keep our eyes peeled to the market over the final 20 minutes of regulation time as we say. meantime, let's get to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the key stocks to watch. kristina. >> reporter: let's start with shares of digital media firm tegna, plunge right now almost 20% lower after the fed

communications communications asked for more info on general standard's bid on the takeover sticking with media, dish network shares are about 7% lower right now hitting the lows of the day after two price cuts came from jpmorgan analysts as well rbc, and that's on lack of wireless momentum. however, the company itself also reported a systems issue on february 23rd last week and the service is still down. i just went and checked. dish.com not working, one of the worst s&p performers today sghot. >> thank you last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we want to know are you in favor of share buybacks? head to @cnbcclosing bell. we'll let you know the results right after this break at morgan stanley,

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let's fet the results of our twitter question are you in favor of stock buybacks and more than 70% of you said yes which was interesting because i was thinking it might be even higher than that. thanks for voting. up next, top tech plays for your poll and george c. is back with us on ways to play that sector when we take you inside the market zone.

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we're now into the "closing bell" market zone. cnbc senior marks commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments and george c. of annendale capital and meg tirrell on the biotech space i want your opinion on the kolanavik note risk/reward bad. what do you make of that call? >> i think what we've been doing for three weeks is seeing bonds drive more hesitation in stocks so when we precisely have to reconnect at a certain index level that corresponds to where bond yields were i'm not sure. now the idea that we added a projected fed rate hike over the last couple of weeks due to strong data and that somehow stocks should radically reprice according to that, well, i don't know as i pointed out the s&p was at this level last may before we got the last 300, 400 basis

points of fed tightening so why are we supposed to radically, you know, go down on another quarter point out in front of us, right, so i don't know that there's a precision way to tune where stocks should be based on the bonds but i also don't think there's a comfortable margin of safety. >> but he would say maybe it's not on each incremental move. >> yes. >> it's the collectiveness of higher for longer brings thanks are underappreciated by stock investors. >> it's a very fair point and i think that it's a reason that you should be open-minded about the fact that we have not really seen the full reckoning on that, so, again, the most bullish people out there are the ones that looked at the technical performance of the market in january. beyond that i think it's a lot of, well, it's not so bad, maybe the cycle lasts a little longer. nothing wrong with a strong economy. a tougher trade at the s&p at 4,000 than it is at 6:00. >> you own a lot of technology stocks which are in the crosshairs nasdaq, for example, leading today but feels more uncertain

because of the move mike was just talking about in rates. are you concerned? >> well, i think the market is really uncertain as to what it wants to do right now and obviously the art complex and tech stocks have wanted to rally since the start of the year and we've had a massive shot squeeze and nobody knows what the fed is doing. sometimes the market is subject to bottom up stock pricing where there's attractiveness right now we're really a macro story until the fed is done. i don't think anybody knows what to do. will the fed stop at 5.25 or.5 or 6 or 6.25 and nobody knows. what that number ends up is being going to affect when stocks are attractive so the market chops. >> that sounds like a tough place to be for a growth investor like yourself. >> yeah, the good news for me is i'm a barbell investor we've got a bit of value stocks underpriced in exposure so we're kind inform a barbell situation so we have a little bit of both.

never want one foot olt way on one side and none on the other side and what we've been doing is emphasizing blue chip stocks and maybe trimming some of the macro speculative tech storks. we're out of netflix and out of tesla and nvidia ands it la basically doubled overnight. it's just been crazy jon fortt

dropping the next few minutes. zoom, nvidia and workday instant reaction and analysis as soon as it hits. >> that stock is outperforming the s&p 500 so far this year but questions are swirling >> now let's get s