life will never be what it was with her. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm natalie morales. thank you for watching. [theme music] good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum these are your headlines this morning. eurozone bond yields surge with the german 10-year hits the 2011 level. the uk and eu seal a deal marking a new chapter as rishi sunak looks for support for the

northern ireland trade pact. >> smooth flowing trade within the united kingdom and protects northern ireland's place in our union and safeguards sovereignty. >> we can now open a new chapter in our partnership a stronger eu/uk relationship. spanish lender santandair announces the new buyback plan we interview ana botin later on. and artificial intelligence is the talk of the town in mobile world congress in barcelona. intel's senior vice president tells me there is more a.i. chat bots coming to the market. >> everyone is trying to figure out how we interact with these new a.i. chat bots one way we will see as users is

clearly a greater variety of different chats. warm welcome to the program. inflation is the name of the game in markets. we got fresh inflation firgures this morning the picture is hot inflation matched a multidecade high set in october. inflation set by higher prices for food and services. spanish inflation is higher with the eu inching a 6.1% increase on the year. in reaction, we are seeing bond yields move higher across the region we are seeing a strong reaction in the german 10-year. trading at the highest level since july of 2011 the french 10-year trading at

its highest level since april of 2012 1.2% right now what does it mean for the euro p scentral bank we will discuss more in the program coming up. and a pull back with the stoxx 600 trading lower at 0 .6%. cyclicals led the charge yesterday. a little bit of profit after that move higher in terms of the breakdown by region, we got the spanish market out performing up 0.3%. sa santandair shares looking for the new strategic plan with the investor day today we will go into detail with that with charlotte ftse 100 is trading down 0.3%.

under performing the market. we have plenty of brexit news to digest this morning. from the sectors, we have banks out in front up 0.6% insurance and oil and gas f performing well. we have travis perk ins here in the uk trading sharply lower and the disappointing earnings utilities and real estate and chemicals trading to the down side that is the picture from the sector perspective in europe u.s. futures are looking weaker. all three majors looking at a pull back. yesterday, we saw the u.s. markets actually produce gains nasdaq out performing and tesla stock with a strong bid

yesterday. similar to europe. a little bit of profit taking this morning on to the latest post brexit deal the windsor framework will remove customs from great britain to northern ireland and not viewed at risk moving to the eu the uk will set the taxes like challenge duty in the region it moves to the stormont assembly if the decision is backed by the uk government. it is not yet clear if the changes are enough for unionists parties in northern ireland to return to power sharing with the dup saying it is considering the proposals. the warning of continued concern. here is what we are seeing in markets. ftse 100 is trading down by 0.%. under performing in the broader

market sterling with the reaction yesterday with sterling strengthening 1% against the dollar after the government reached the deal now this morning, the gains continue we are up .25% against the greenback at 120.93. in gilt markets, we see yields move higher. it is part of the broader movement higher. 10-year trading at 3.85% 2-year trading at 3.7% rishi sunak said the deal would resolve issues caused by the original agreement. >> we made a decisive br breakthrough together, we changed the original protocol and announcing the new windsor framework. today's agreement delivers smooth flowing trade within the whole united kingdom protects northern ireland's place in our union and

safeguards sovereignty for the people of northern ireland i'm standing here today because i believe we have found ways to end the uncertainty and challenge for the people of northern ireland >> european commission president ursula von der leyen spoke out as well. >> our respective markets and legitimate interests and it protects the hard earned peace gains of the belfast good friday agreement for the people of northern ireland and across the island of ireland. this is why i believe we can open a new chapter in our partnership. stronger eu/uk relationship standing as close partners, shoulder to shoulder, now and in the future

>> sylvia joins us with more analysis of the deal for the uk and eu moving forward. sylvia >> reporter: good morning, julianna i have to say that there's already a few accomplishments from the agreement first, it is already an improvement in terms of the british and european relationships. also it is an important factor for the british economy. let's not forget we had a couple of gloomy forecasts, particularly from the international monetary fund. the fact that this deal could actually mean easier trade relations with the united kingdom. i want to take a closer look to what this means from the domestic political view because at this stage, the uncertainty is how will the mps react? i have a special guest with me tony travers from the london school of economics.

i would like to start lby lookig at the dynamics in ireland with the windsor framework. >> the democratic unionists, the largest party in the unionists in northern ireland could make the prime minister's life difficult. particularly the leader of the party who has been in the uk media this morning not saying no he is not ruling this out. he is saying they need to read more about the detail and get the lawyers to look at it and how these various locks and controls work from rishi sunak's view, donaldson not saying no is progress it gives the prime minister in the uk grounds for optimism. >> let's look at the prime minister then. this is an important political win for him.

is this big enough to change the polls? >> the polls in the uk have been showing the conservative party and rishi sunak's party way behind the opposition labour party. against that back drop, this is seen in the uk press which is enthusiastic which sees it being good for rishi sunak and good for the government and breaking the logjam it could give the conservatives a chance in the next election that i don't think they thought they had >> in terms of the future of rishi sunak as well, even if he does not win the next general election, does this agreement mean he will be able to remain as the leader of the conservative party or do you think a change is inevitable >> if the conservatives were to lose the general election, chances are rishi sunak would not stay on. the conservative party in the uk is incredibly quick at getting

rid of leaders it can't or haven't won. having said that, i think from his personal point of view and the country's point of view, what he demonstrated with the agreement or framework, the uk politics has moved back to the moderate or normal path. both the leader of the government and opposition are main trestream politician. it is the way uk politics is progressing. the next election is still a year or so away. it opens a slight chance for the conservatives that they begun to write off. >> when we step back, the biggest question that people have at this stage is, is this the end of us talking about brexit >> i'll use a cliche brexit is a process and not an event. it doesn't put an end to brexit.

it is a platform for the eu and uk to bring together a rational relationship it removes many of the blocks and will help within the uk as well because it will mean the horizon science program will play out and joe biden did not like the alternative proposition. he will like this. the uk moving on from the beginning of the breaxit proces. >> let's look at the dynamics with the united states there is a question why this actually will pave the way for the agreement with the u.s is that in the near term >> i think trade deal with the united states is unlikely, not because of brexit, but the domestic pressures in the u.s. it is all about green technologies i think a trade deal with the uk

and u.s. are unlikely. what is more possible now is the uk and the u.s. getting back to a more normal version of their special relationship >> what about with the european union? for the last almost decade, we have seen this relationship just deteriorating. is this a reset in the relationship >> you have to look at the photographs of ursula von der leyen and rishi sunak yesterday with the union flag and all of that the meeting with the king which is controversial in a way. this is a reset. this will make the uk and eu to discuss a range of issues on the rational basis from here on and establish a good longer-term relationship some will begin to look at the deal and whether there are clues to how the uk as a hole might

relate to the eu in the longer term >> let's see how it evolves. thank you for joining me today >> reporter: tony travers from the london school of economics julianna, this is an important development with british politics we see the trade frictions resolved with great britain and northern ireland this could pave the way for better relations with the europeans and possibly the americans. we will see how this all unfolds in the coming months. >> sylvia, thank you for the ana analysis. turning back to stock markets. bayer says the profits will decline this year. it expects $12.5 billion and $15 billion this year. it is trading down this year at

4% and now moving to santander. it is releasing a buyback program ahead of investor day in london shares are up after the convenienlender posted a $921 million share. the stock has been halved since the ceo took over ten years ago. charlotte, that chart looks different depending where you slice it it has been on a good run since the start of the year. it seems today coming into the investor day, investors are excited about what they delivered. >> that is right it has been a rally lately. the buyback policy was going to 50% from 40% one thing that was unexpected is the profitability target from 15% to 17% between 2023 and

2025 that is more ambitious over the 13.4% in 2022. we see the bank being positive the investors want more details today. the first investor day since 2019 which is held today in london from the executive chair. the new ceo that came on board in january and they have been under are pressure to split the operational management you had the whole saga of the hiring and then that did not happen and now the inside man of the bank who led the mexican and u.s. business for them now ceo since january. we will hear more from the management and how this is working for them the growth plan as well for the bank has been relying on the latin america business and the market in brazil with the activity in mexico now with higher interest rate

and they hope to benefit spain was actuallyone of the shining points with the higher provisions for mexico, brazil and, of course, the uk as well the question of the mortgage market in the uk demands activity here at 2.5 year lows finally, the u.s. business, particularly big on the auto financing business as we have seen decling -- delinquisies ri. >> thank you for giving us the detail in contrast to the rebound, credit suisse shares are under

pressure the bank seriously breached the superior obligations the watchdog concluded it ordered remedial measures. credit situatuisse added it marn important step for the company. anthe uk asset manager wrestled with the equity markets from last year with aberdeen the group's weepsweeping restructuring plan is looking for the longer rates plan. >> we think they will be higher for longer we don't think the fed will be back to 50 bps there is a wall of money that is anticipating peak rates and moving into fixed income

we had a very strong fixed income franchise. our clients view it as valuable. that should be positive for us some of these trends of fixed income investing and asia i investing and china investing and alternatives is why we are building a business into the areas. man group has beat expectations despite reporting a 4% decline in full year aem. the company reported an 18% increase in profit adding the challenge macro economic environment presents good opportunities for the business shares rewarded. up nearly 7% ocado with a loss of 501 million pounds for the year coming in below expecti peexpecs

now ocado shares taking a steep hit down more than 9%. that is a big move lower as we have seen in the last several weeks, that stock is volatile uk grocery price inflation hit 17.1% in february with houses facing 811 pounds on shopping bills per year on average as the price of eggs and butter and milk soar that shows budget retailers like kantar reaping the benefits of the everything coming up, artificial intelligence from the mobile world congress in barcelona. we will have more from our team on the ground after the break.

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welcome back to "street signs. meta ceo mark zuckerberg announced a new team for a.i.

products it will explore technology with text images on the platforms this move comes amid the push into a.i. to take on competitors like microsoft and snap. this is a big topic in barcelona at the mobile world congress karen, you brought us information into 5g. what is happening on the ground this morning >> reporter: julianna, the scene was set in december with the launch of chatgpt. since it snowballed with the announcements. i have arjun with me a lot of a.i. behind the scenes for a.i. for business and now a.i. for con ssumeconsumers. this is google and microsoft with the right chat bot and who are manage the search. we have facebook coming out with interface for text and video and

snap rolling it out for the high-end subscribers >> chatgpt ignited the fuel with a.i. products. here the smart phone venders are out talking about the technical with a.i. is opt mysimizing the software others talking about assistants old phone. we can do more now you have siri as well. you have so many areas of a.i. on the network side. we have been speaking to the players to optimize the networks to make them faster and more efficient and cost effective so many areas a.i. infused into the mobile business. >> you wonder if we get something better than siri at this point snap announcing it is not a search function, but trusted friend you can chat to we spoke to the senior vice

president over at intel and he was telling us there are plenty of a.i. chat bots coming to market >> a.i. is clearly in the news with chatgpt and bing, et c cetera we are thinking how this changes our lives and interact with the chat bots. one way we see as users is a greater variety of different chat bots. we have seen two emerge in the last few weeks we will see dozens more over the next few months. a lot of the chatgpt is taking place in the cloud and back in the cloud data centers as you mentioned, a lot more of the processing will move out closer to us where you get a real-time behavior as the models where everybody is training and building for applications is more efficient and more compact on the handheld devices. >> there are more considerations here around who has the best

a.i. chat bots it comes down to the data used to generate the most sophisticated version of that. we are talking to players how you power it they are looking at the data centers required i saw figures suggesting that the services could be low single digits you think of volume of that and it could be expensive forestry players if the cost doesn't come down >> certainly the irony is a lot of the players who are dominant in the chat bots and cloud are the large u.s. tech players. you see amazon and an cloud with microsoft as well. we are in europe the large sectors are here there is a battle in the background with large companies with amazon and netflix, et cetera, and the european union and the telecommunications companies here the big debate here, the carrie

saying we invest in the 5g networks we are not seeing the returns at this point you have companies like netflix and others who are clogging the networks and building businesses off the back of the networks we built. that is the argument they are saying these companies should be paying for the infrastructure that is a fascinating debate that is playing out right now. they often liken it to the highway. we built the highway and they are driving on it and not paying for the maintenance. i spoke to one of the chief technology and innovation officer and he gave me his view on the infrastructure debate >> now there is no google. we are absolutely vital. we are at the entry point of the digital world. we are at the entry point. at the end of the day, we need to work together we need to have the same

incentives one example on the debate is that you have five players in the world that contribute or drive out of the traffic you have a highway and all of the roads or lanes which are taken by five companies. that is exactly what happened. what we say to them, first, reduce the pressure on traffic this drives investment. >> without us, there is no netflix there is an eu consultations and lots of questions of the monetary perspective and how do you an chiefchieve this withnet neutrality >> i think there are big implications with big tech we had companies reporting to cut costs where they can

we still have jurisdictions that view them as cash cows to go after if europe is arguing for fair access for the same point having to step up innovation around the trends coming to market quicker than anyone thought with a.i. chat bots. it tells you about the drivers on the revenue and expense models with facebook and meta and snap and various other big players. >> can you imagine if netflix came out tomorrow and we have to pay $2 billion a year to keep the networks up? that will hadd to the pressure n their margins. that could be a huge deal. >> the question is the revenue models as we talk about a.i. chat bots. you get a sense companies will build their own. the technology that the big faang stocks create across the sectors with the companies and it might just be for their own services it puts a question mark over the

industry julianna, back to you. >> fascinating linking the tech sector together. i look forward to more coverage from mobile world congress. coming up on the program, european yields spike amid a raft of hotter than expected inflation data more after this. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

awelcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum these are your headlines the german 10-year hitting the highest level since february of 2011 the uk and eu seal a deal hailing a new chapter as rishi sunak seeks political support for the northern ireland trade pact >> today's agreement delivers trade within the united kingdom and protects northern ireland's place in the union >> we can now open a new chapter in our partnership stronger eu/uk relationship.

santander with a $1 billion buyback. we have the executive chair interview with ana botin later on this morning. and credit suisse breached the obligations over the green cell saga. the watch dog remedial measures will not have a significant cost. let's get a check on the market an hour and a half into the trading session. we have a bit of red on the board. a pull back after yesterday's strong rally the stoxx 600 gained 1% with every sector participating in the rally. this morning, the ibex 35 is the bright spot.

that index up 0.4% as you saw, santander out performing with investor day in london and delivers share buyback to lenders we are seeing profit taking and a lot of focus on inflation here in europe which we will dive into detail in a couple of minutes. inflation is running hotter than expected is the take away. on to the u.s. futures the three majors are pointing to a weaker start similar to europe. a pull back in store for the u.s. session this is the final trading day for the month of february. i thought it would be nice to look at what we have seen over the month. here is the picture for u.s. markets month to date. a month of losses. dow jones industrial average trading at 3.5% lower coming into the final trading session s&p down 3%. nasdaq has been more resilient,

but lower on the month by 1% as investors deal with the anxiety over the fed and what is in store with tightening and what that tightening means for u.s. growth here is a breakdown of sectors tech sector. that basket of stocks up .50%. otherwise it is red. we have health under performing down 4%. communications also very much tech focused sector down 5%. real estate down 6%. we have the energy sector under performing down 6.3% month to date in currency markets, here is the dollar month to date sterling is 1.9% lower euro is down 2.3%. very much a dollar story as investors look for higher than longer rates in the u.s. which

has driven into the u.s. dollar. we have seen the euro bounce as european inflation is hotter than expected. a lot of the different pushes and pulls on the currency. in terms of bonds, the 10-year treasury has been marching higher at 3.95%. we have seen obviously a big reaction in bond markets to all of the strong economic data stateside. with the european markets month to date, a brighter story. european equity are holding better green across the board up 1.5% for the ftse 100 the dax 1.3% strong performance for the french and italian markets up 3 for both of those. with european bond yields, we have seen that move with the 10-year bund at 2.65%.

a lot of action this morning let me take you to european yields this morning. on the back of the stronger than expected inflation both stronger than expected inflation prints from spain and france with a more persistent pressure bun bund at 2.56%. i'm pleased to say i'm joined by somebody who knows about bond markets. that is matt egan. thank you for being with us. what is turning out to be an exciting morning in bond markets. what is your take on the inflation data that we saw this morning? france and spain with stronger inflationary pressures >> a pattern we have seen recently after what we saw in the united states. the peak is coming down.

the question is how low it will come down. the market got too carried away is what the immaculate disinflation story was inflation is going to be sticky. >> it is interesting it did feel like people were expecting it to come down in this fashion how do you think about the trajectory from here >> so, there is the secular underpinning the market in the cyclical on the secular, we are calling the four ds. demographics, working age population growth market has stagnated. we have deglobalization. companies are thinking less about lowest price to produce their goods and services and more inclined to think about

security security of trade lines and governmentis are thinking that way. we think of decarbonization. that is spending on greenification. factors is there are tailwinds to inflation relative to the modernization here, inflation will be va variable that is the cyclical part of it. a lot of discussion and debate about inflation. in my mind, it is cyclical for the cycle, we peaked the question is how low we get y . >> it fascinatifascinating. you mentioned defense. you did not give it its own category it could add further to the inflationary print >> this leads to the fiscal print. europe increasing defense spending same with the united states.

this is going to be persistent here therefore, i think, you have to think of that long term. cyclically, yields are up. they are up a lot. inflation is coming down that gap between nominal yields you are earning and inflation is starting to go positive. i think in 2023, you can start to leg into bonds. the fed and other central banks are almost done with the hiking cycle. i think now you can build a bond portfolio that provides a decent yield and add stability to the broader fixed forincome portfolo >> that echos what we hard from the aberdeen ceo with the wall of money coming into fixed income what will be the catalyst? what will get the investors putting their money to work? >> it will be the right level of

yield. i think that wall of money came in to buy. it was so big it drove yields down investors say this is getting too rich it is up and down here with the final catalyst being when do the central banks get reprieve when can they slow down or pause? we are getting close to that the next few months you will see more discussion about pausing. again, on the longer term perspective, the mistake is pricing in inflation too low to the back end of the curve. >> do you think that there is enough structure inflation in the pipeline that the fed moves to abandon the 2% target >> i don't think they will i think that is too far for them to go. maybe that should be something they should contemplate or otherwise should be doing. i think they are really in a box here it will be difficult to bring inflation back down to the target the four ds, what that means is

before inflation was stuck below the 2% target. remember, ait it is higher than that we have to wait and see how high we are look in the is u.s. market with the break even at 2.5% for a 10-year bond. that is what you are getting for long run inflation is that the right number time will tell. >> when do you see the fed actually cutting it sounds like a pause is in the near term. what does that say about the growth expectations? >> our growth expectations right now and this depends how far and fast the fed goes. the higher the fed goes, the more rates are priced in later as we go, if they still feel like they are behind and getting up to six or little higher than that on the front end, that leads the possibility of a harder landing and more cuts on the other side

we're in the camp it is a more milder down turn that we will experience i think with inflation sort of being more perky out there, the fed is more likely to pause and hold it for at least all of 2023 rate cuts, in my mind, don't start until 2024 if they do at all. >> okay. if they do at all. interesting. i suppose one more question on what is happening in the u.s my colleague steve liesman who covers the fed in the new york team said there is no cliff this year with corporate and high yields debt. the challenge is next year and beyond to what extent does that give you comfort? it sounds like you are also comfortable with that outlook this year and into the beginning of next year >> i covered the tremcredit mars for over 20 years. this cycle going into the downturn, the fundamentals are the best i have seen

broader corporate investment grade markets or global high yield markets. banks are a different story. what that means and why you get paid a spread to invest in the corporate market is the risk of assuming losses. losses from downgrades, losses from default we expect those losses to be actually lower than other recent cycles we have seen when you see defaults and such blowout in the speculative grade market we don't see an underpinning for that type. what does that mean? we think spreads will remain lower than they would in a d downturn you get a premium to invest in the losses in the market that is not surprising one of the interesting things about this cycle is you will go into the cycle market not earning enough premium nobody ses the downturn coming

and it hits you like january of 2020 in this cycle, everybody expect a downturn or something like it. the premiums were built into the market >> that has been the story so far of 2023. >> and a lot of money flowing into that. not enough bonds to buy. >> let me bring it back to europe given the inflation printout and more inflation prints coming from germany and europe is a 50 basis point hike done at this point and how do you think of the opportunity for european fixed income versus the u.s. >> i think europe ecb is further behind than the boe and fed. i think you need to be more patient in those markets i think 50 basis point hike from the ecb is likely. they probably need to do more after that you know, yields overall will continue to lift with inversion in the curve going forward that is that market.

i think in terms of the more attractive markets, i still think u.s. treasuries are attractive with the additional carry plus finflation is coming down that is attractive then boe, the gilt markets fall is somewhere in between there. the boe going close to 5%. >> it is incredible when you step back and think about where you can get 5% yield now no more t.i.n.a. matthew, thank you for joining me matthew eagan from loomis. we will take a quick break when we come back, we will talk u.s. and china can the u.s. and china decouple economies and the u.s. congressional committee holds the first meeting today. we'll discuss that next. has no idea she's sitting on a

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welcome back to the program. u.s. government has set a deadline to ensure employees at federal agencies do not have tiktok installed on device

this as the white house moves to restrict internet traffic. it follows a similar move from the eu which banned the app last week on staff devices. a new committee on china will hold the hearing today. the group of lawmakers will look at the threats china poses on the u.s. government looking to decouple the two largest economies. jamie rubin said china appeared to have aligned itself with russia with the conflict in ukraine. >> china repeats the lies about the war over and over again. they blame the united states for the war. they repeated russia 's lies of weapons labs in ukraine. china is supporting them buying the oil, yes, that's part of it. there has been plenty of public

reporting of filling the weapon production capability. our sanctions are having a biting effect damaging facilities they have to buy alternative parts and use secondary capabilities in china as public reporting. it is the diplomatic support, especially, having an alignment with the russia's leader and china's leader working together which is something that signals to the world what china's policy is >> the u.s. energy department says the covid pandemic may have originated from the lab leak that is according to the wall street journal it says the claims were made with low confidence. nbc news' brie jackson has more on the story brie, it sounds like the energy department is echoing what we heard from the fbi interestingly, the white house seems to be insisting there is

no consensus over the origin of covid. what can we expect from the house committee on china which is holding a hearing later today? >> reporter: good morning, julianna what we do know is it is a mystery which is the origin of covid. the white house is insisting there is no conclusion after the department of energy updated assessment found was low confidence that covid originated from the lab leak in wuhan four other agencies maintain that the virus was no likely spread naturally lawmakers want answers about this and calling for investigation into the matter. both parties are pressing china to be more transparent

we heard that china did fire back in a statement telling the u.s. to stop polit sicizing the origin of covid. >> brie, thank you for that report we are awaiting the origin and this is a fascinating time for the story to come out with the tension with the u.s. and china. bringing it back to markets. here is a picture of the u.s. futures. all three indices are looking at a modest pull back this morning. let's break it down for you. the house price index for december reporting today and the conference board for february reporting today. we get the chicago pmi for the month of february and the richmond fed manufacturing for february reporting today more data to look out for. on the earnings front, insight into the health of the u.s. consumer with the target earnings due out

this is interesting especially with inventory management as target deals with the fallout of the pandemic and changing consumer habits and now inflationary pressure. the target report is one to watch out for. in terms of what we are seeing here in europe, we have seen a major move higher in bond yields in response to the stronger than expected inflation prints from spain and france more inflation data coming through in the week from germany and euro area. plenty to look out for this week i will hand you over to the u.s. colleagues i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. we are getting set for the final trading day of the month setting the tone is retail as target reports. we layout the case ahead of the tape. and maybe the groundhog was right. the northeast gets slammed in the first major winter storm of the season the track and the systems still developing ahead. today rk