retailer lowe's set to report any minute now a week after home depot. they usually report the day after. we'll bring you the numbers and the instant reaction it's wednesday, march 1st, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market sight in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's take a look at how the equity futures are shaping up at this hour. the nasdaq up by 67. but this comes after a down day yesterday and a down month for february for stocks. in fact, stocks have been down

two out of the last three months, and the dow gave back all of its gains from february it's now down year to date it was down 4% in the month of february if you look at it again, 4.2% for the month of february. the s&p 500was down by 12.6%, the dow down 1.6%. s&p is still up by 3.4% and the nasdaq is still up by nearly 9%, 9.5% if you've been watching treasury yeels you know the picture has been higher yields and the 10-year is sitting back at 3.93%. it's probably worth taking a look at energy prices because they had their worst month since september. you're looking at wti, which has been down now eight out of the last nine months it's down another 1.1% today, 76.18. >> the nasdaq is up but down from the highs. >> that was a couple of days ago

that it was down 20% bear market still. >> did it briefly go into a bull market >> it was better than down 10%, might have been up 20. like a recession we don't know what a bare or bull market is anywhere. >> the market reacted so violently last year to the expectation we'd be in a recession by this point. i don't know they would certainly write off it, that there are more people who said it's possible to have a soft landing, but we still don't know what the delayed effect of the fed raising the interest rate so rapidly is going to be. >> what does march do? comes in like a lion >> goes out like a lam. >> goes out like a lamb. we've got such big numbers the cpi, ppi i don't know we've taken some blows.

>> growth numbers in china were strong today it just shows the reopening they've had. to me the first thing i thought about -- >> why did you want to look at wti today? it's still not doing anything. >> i wanted to look at it because it's down eight out of the nine months in a row. >> why >> i was going to point to the china opening numbers is that going to be a turning point? i don't know jeff currie from goldman sachs we've had on a lot we talked about how higher prices are going to be here. but i think so much rides on what china's recovery is going to look like i heard jiff kure talking about it, how you're still talking maybe 500 barrels a day, production being lost at this point. >> are we ready for lowe's what are they going to see >> we'll see in just a moment. shares of rushian plunging after gain of 4.6% in yesterday's

session and adjusted a lot of $1.73 brs per share. wasn't as bad as the $1.93 share, but revenue is what they were focused on. it missed estimated. for 2023 rivian vehicle production, of 50,000 vehicle production, it's double last year but below expectations of 60,000 they say supply shortage is resulting in less. >> i saw one yesterday in the tunnel i turned around to look at it and it was a happy truck. >> were you looking at the suh version? >> no. it was a pickup, but it was smiling. so i guess that was before -- i don't know >> we think of rivian in the images you see on camera right now, but a big part of their business is the delivery

vehicles that they have manufactured for amazon. >> but it's the vertical headlights. >> you're starting to see that. >> what's the point? is it form follows function region for it? >> have you not noticed it, sort of that thin light across the top has become a thing it's almost seg active of it is an ev. >> i don't necessarily think it's better. distinction active. >> maybe meantime gm cutting hundreds of positions to preserve cash affecting 500 pocks across various portions of the company. it comes nearly a month after mary barra and paul jacobson maybing a statement they were not considering a layoff they say the results were the result of performance and manage the attrition curve as part of

gm's cost reduction effort. tesla as we noted at the top is hosting an investor day elon musk plans to unveil the company's master plan three, the path to a fully sustainable future for earth not a big goal really. the plan was to build a sports car, use that money to build a more affordable car and then use that money to build an even more affordable car and provide electric power generation options. master plan part 2 unveiled in 2016 involved creating solar roofs to expand the line including a pickup truck, electric bus, and semitruck and make self-driving capability tevin times safer than manual driving. it's up clear what will be included it might be a settlement on

mars nobody knows reuters is reporting that tesla is planning a revamp of its model y. we'll talk more about it in the 8:00 hour with phil lebeau i still refuse to eat potatoes made with poo. he's so inpredictable as we've seen in the last week or so. we've got to talk to jonathan sorkin greenbaum about that. you must have been just horrified. >> i don't know if i'm horrified. i think there's going to be a lot of different ais. >> i was talking about elon musk saying -- not agreeing with dilbert, but sort of saying that the media itself has got some issues with systemic -- >> oh, yeah. i'm not with elon on this. >> that's what i mean. we'll talk to jonathan about

that is ai going to give us the twitter situation? is it going to be like that, that everything you bring up is going to be skewed in that way >> i think there's going to be multiple versions of all this. you have noticed certain social media types are all based on la-la land, california is ai going to be like that. >> i think there's going to be multiple versions of it. >> garbage in, garbage out. >> that's the question. >> all of it. >> does it transcend that? that's what true ai would be, when it transcends guygo other woods it's fancy software.

>> it only learn as what you teach it. >> we want it to actually learn. >> do we >> no, i don't know. that's a decision we've got to make. >> the only thing i've got to say, we live in a very buy fur indicated world where there's lots of people -- you think silicon valley is one thing. >> oh, yeah, that's one thing. >> you can mention your friends down the road, fox, who watch it play out every single day. >> oh, we're talking about that stuff happening. >> can we come back to it only because lowe's is out. the adjusted numbers beat expectations which were $2.21 a share. it looks like the revenue came in a little light. $22.24 billion versus 22.70. comp store sales were down by

0.7%, and let's talk a little bit about what the guide' is too. for the guidance t company is saying the full year, they're looking for numbers of 13.6 to $14 a share versus $13.79 estimate the sails expectation a little light. you can see the stock is down by about 2% they did talk about how there was some issues that are coming with the consumer, some concerns about the a slowdown and demand. i want to bring in brian nagel to talk more about this. he's with oppenheimer. you can see the reaction brian, what are your thoughts? the guidance and comp store sales. >> good morning, becky i'm looking at this report, and relative to what we heard from home depot and the chatter out there, this report from lowe's

is rather benign, which is interesting to me because remember last week home depot further unneshed investors with a somewhat weaker q4 report and dampened expectations in 2023. if you look at the results, they're inconsistent with what home depot said last week. keep it in perspective lowe's held an investor meeting back on december 67th. they're basically reaffirming that guidance. >> the question about why they may be doing is it because they're tied into the consumer and less with the contractor as home depot is? >> that could be a piece of it we've been talking about this for a long time now. there's more operational slack within the lowe's business model. every time i'm on your show i

talk about ellison who took over he and his team have done a great job repositioning lowe's as the backdrop gets modestly more difficult, lowe's has better internal levers that they can pull to drive their business again, i think we're seeing some evidence of that here. >> as a result, do you like lowe's shares better than home depot at this point? >> i like them both. on paper i would say, yes, i like lowe's better the other point, i want to make sure i make this clear on your show, lowe's is cheap. they trade substantial discount to the market overall. frankly when i look at these valuations even given all the concerns, the valuation of lowe's makes no sense to me. i think the stock here is quite cheap. yes, i think lowe's is positioning better since i talked to our clients as

the dust settles here, maybe as an investment community we talk about a pronounced recession just because it's such a known quantity with investors. >> why do you think lowe's trades as such a discount? we've known about mr. ellison. we've seen what he's been doing. just your thesis, what you play out, makes a lot of sense. if there's more room for things to get tightened up there, the market would figure it out. >> i laugh so much i've been talking about this valuation gap between lowe's and home depot it feels like ten years. we haven't seen it despite very clear indications of fundamental improvement. i think the answer to your question -- and i've seen this elsewhere with other stocks, it's a dynamic maybe they're loathe to let go of the dynamics.

over time lowe's continues to perform. we will see that multiple climb and the front of the market overall. >> brian, after hearing from so many of these big retailer, what do you think the overall sentiment is of the economy and the consumer >> that's a great question, okay i think -- so yesterday i had auto zone report results we'll get best buy tomorrow and other reports. if i step back and say what's really happening here, i think the consumer is holding quite well there are signs of weakness. it's mod rated off a much highe base overall the consumer is in good shape here we are starting to see much more

clearly this post pandemic dynamic. we're shifting back to services, you know, away from some of these categories but i think the consumer remains in good shape. >> thank you good to see you. >> nice seeing you too. on the other side of this barack, we're going to take you live to washington, dc, this morning to talk about last night's inaugural meeting on a new committee on cpetiomtion with china you're watching "squawk box. and this is cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit baird difference.com ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family...

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welcome back to "squawk box. joining us right now with the highlights, eamon javers good morning, eamon. >> good morning, andrew. this meeting served as a turning point. coalescing around the idea that the elites have simply been wrong about china for nearly 30 years. the video opened with a montage of depression about china. now, members of both parties simply have concluded here that the decisions to grant most favored nation trading status to china were the starting points for a long downward spiral and

the new chairman of the committee, republican mike gallagher says he knows who it was inside the united states who aided in all of that. >> the ccp has found friends on wall street, on k street, in fortune 500, c streets, and those are w.h.o. are ready to pose and pushback. this strategy has worked well in the past and the ccp is confidence it will work again. our committee is tasked to make sure it does not. >> now, the ranking democrat on the committee said both parties have simply been wrong over the years. >>over the last three decades democrats and republicans have underestimated the ccp and trading would lead to greater democracy in the indo regionen

colluding in the prc >> now, the committee also heard from day lines of american manufacturing. he blamed american businesses for failing to stand up to china. >> the business is untainted while ccp policies have been destructive, our own policies in some cases have made matters worse, bringing china into the world trade system in 2000 seemed like a slam-dunk, but instead became a spectacular failure of conventional wisdom and elite opinion. >> i've got to say, this was a strikingly populist hearing and it signals that washington's mood toward china has definitely changed dramatically back over to you. >> the big question is do you think we'll be talking -- i should say we're going to be talking to mickey in the next hour, but my question is whether you think there's going to be a

real sea change in the direction of the american business. >> well, gejer chairman gallaghy he's going to bring american companies before the committee and have them testify why they're shipping jobs and revenues out to china. this is a committee where both republicans and democrats were talking about decoupling the u.s. and chinese economies thafl's been sort of and edgy and radical ideas. they were committed to the idea of it being a fundamental goal where they have to, go callings it a strategic demodels. i think that has starkism plications for wall street and corporate america. this committee is positioning itself as a pushback to corporate america and this populist theme. >> yesterday our eunice yoon was

talking a little bit about this. she said she's hearing from both companies about this kind of idea of hiving things or siloing things where you take the chinese business and try to set it aside, create a little did staps. do you think it will fly with some of these politicians who are going after it, the idea that you can see there's a china wall between the two businesses, or are they going to want to see much more action >> yeah, i think they're going to want to see much more action. the question is can they put teeth to that. rhetorically, this idea that we have a chinese unit and it's totally separate, but all the profits and revenue flow to the same that's not going to work can this committee come together and push new legislation that getting through congress and signed by the president. that's an enormous challenge in this very divided washington

the committee members added pangs to say how bipartisan they are on this issue. they demonstrated that for the most part. there were a couple of partisan flashpoints last night the scale of grievance against china and blame for all sorts of things the pandemic, the hollowing out of the american work force, covid situation t lab leak theory, the idea of the u.s. economy overall, the spy balloon, the concerns about tiktok and spying on american teenagers, i mean all of that was on full display last night, and i think all of that was refreshing for some of these members of congress who have been at each other's throats for so long, now they have somebody else to go after that's new we saw the trump administration push for that for four years

now we're seeing democrats push for it we'll see where the president lands. >> thank you. when we come back, new survey data on a work force trend. why women are leaving their jobs that's next. later we'll hear from glenn youngkin on china, taxes, and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth where we focus on person-to-person connections so you can focus on what matters most

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cnbc is out with its third annual women at work survey in partnership with moe men active which find that women are under pressure and eager for different opportunities. 27% of women say they have worked longer hours. our survey finds that half of all women who left the job last year did so to get one that

offered better work/life balance. 41% say they're overwhelmed with work the top motivator for william, considering an exit is higher pay, and the overturning of roe versus wade is having an impact too. 23% of women workers alnd 29% o women say they won't work in a state that limits abortion access more are leaving their jobs than ever before. coming up, jonathan greenblatt we were talking about this a little earlier from the anti-defamation league he'll join us next he'll talk about bias in artificial intelligence and a lot more as we head to break, e here's a look at yesterday's s&p 0 nns d sers

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at the futures right now. dow up by about 90 points. i want to show you crypto prices right now. bitcoin sitting at 2$23,764. ether at $1,655 later we'll talk with brian arm stong. he'll talk about crypto and what washington may or may not do, implications for the international worrell and implications on these businesses. >> tare we getting closer to a resolution >> i'm not sure we're getting

any closer. >> a hot potato. >> yep >> you expect a lot from our politicians. it's going to take some time on ai i lon musk reportedly wants to build a rival to chatgpt he's criticized it, suggesting in a tweet late last night -- late last year, could be an skpaem pl of training ai joining us is jonathan greenblatt, ceo of a antidefamation league. i agree with you this is a basic tenet that things like this with the potential for real harm and real danger, we need to take it slow. what does that mean exactly. when do we trust an ai program

when do you think? two years? three years? five years when do you put total trust in it to be unbuy iased and facts? >> first let me say it's always a good day when my morning starts with you and elon musk. >> oh, my goodness, gracious he should be hooked up to a lie detexter because i think he just told true. >> is that true, jonathan? would you rather talk to me or andrew seriously >> i love all my "squawk box" people equally look, the reality is it's not about time, joe, how long it's going to take. it's about sort of testing i think we monitor interactions online and offline we've seen this with social media, other product we believe in safety by design

so not as an after thought you bolt onto your product but as a design you integrate from the beginning. there are reasonable things we've seen from sam altman and ai we've watched as they've tested and improved the product they rolled it out slowly before it went live last november, but as we move forward, i think it's reasonable to ask questions what are the data sets that are being used to program the kind of general tissue artificial intelligence who are the prompt engineers improving the product? are they taking into consideration the full range of the experience of their intended user how have the products performed when they've been tested how do they meet or exceed the threshold? these are the things we want to know, joe, just like you would ask about any other product or service before we roll it out to the market. >> yep we've had a discussion about some of the issues

i both hope for and fear when ai becomes more than gego, when it doesn't reflect the program but thinks on its own. i don't know what that looks like i don't know when that's even possible that's why i asked how long is it going to take the other discussion we had is we hopefully don't want to have for lack of a better term a fox news chatgpt and a cnn gpt. both are bad it should be easier with this, jonathan, because the problem with twitter, we remember what happened that's user generated. anything can come on there you've got to moderate these people, can't they make sure there's no anti-semitism? make sure there's no hate bias there's certain things they

ought to be able to take out of the equation immediately in designing these things and then you don't have users polluting it with its own personal opinion. it shouldn't be all that hard with all social media, i would think? >> joe, i agree with your theory they're testing chatgpt and we've seen them improve the product. at first it was bliurting out stuff. it changed, joe, and got better and smarter as the designers took meaningful steps. are very correct in what you laid out the idea of a fragmented ai universe like we have a fragmented social media, i think it's bad for all users eli years ago talked about algorithms that could form to

our views. not only has that happened but i worry we could go from filter bubbles to filter fortresses if ai ontario sends us what we want to see we need different sources of information. that's healthy for everyone. >> technology can be dangerous that's why we need to do it slowly i've been arguing for years on bioethics. that was my thing, molecular biology. the promise is so amazing, but the risks of something going wrong with genetic -- i mean, we may have lived through a mistake. it's now looking more likely that we may have lived through a lab mistake that killed 7 million people but this brings me to my point there was a time on social media where you weren't allowed to see that viewpoint truth becomes relevant over

time is it going to be written where you look up wuhan lab and it says a debunked conspiracy theory that's been proven wrong, when, in fact, it wasn't at all. there was immense pressure from scientists and certain scientists and ores to keep that out of the public purview. >> look, we've talked about this and i agree. telling us we can hear these stories that somebody's laptop is bad, but let's distinguish between information and intolerance. like i don't think it's woke ai if chatgpt won't spit out the n-word or spit out holocaust i believe there's a way to do this right, again, putting users at the center of the experience. you know, joe, if there's openness and what are the data sets, we can make good decisions, but from my point of view i don't think we need eli

to build base ai let's focus on getting twigger right. there's not work at twitter, joe, that could take him another 100 years. i want to get the core products right first before we create new disinformation platforms or what not. that double help anybody. >> i think we talked about buy fur indicated. i think it is. i can give you ten things we talk about on "squawk box" every day and depending who's writing the ai program, you get a lot of different answers on a lot of different subjects it's so nebulous these days, what's real. a lot of people throw around science and they don't know what they're talk about if you put one version of science in your ai program and another puts their version of signs, they could be polar opposites. >> look. i believe there are innovations out there. we've seen what blockchain can

do to validate in information. we've seen what they can do. we have libraries for hundreds of years where you can get a range of views we have news stands. we need more diversity in the news media designed with safety in mind. and then i think everybody wins, joe, i really do. >> it sounds so reasonable it's just the idea of safety, you know it's like the view of art is in the eye of the beholder. what's art to you may not be art to me. >> what's a fair point there, becky, is we need to make sure the whole apparatus catches up with us. we talked about section 230 on this show. if you don't hold these companies responsible, they'll print anything. >> if you hold people responsible for everything, we won't see anything at all. we need a "squawk box" ai. both sides illustrated fairly.

>> maybe we need kernenbot. >> mary shelly can write that one. don't that jonathan, you even been in here. you like me. you've hugged me. >> who's your avorite, jonathan >> again, i like all of my "squawk box" hosts equally. >> we're not going to get an answer. >> sorry, guys. >> you like us more than elon musk >> ca >> i'm going to let all this go. >> i almost got him there. >> wow, wow. >> see you later thank you. when we come back, virginia governor glenn youngkin will join us to talk about incha. taxes, much, much more a reminder you can watch us or listen to us any time.

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welcome back to "squawk box. goldman sachs delivered its new vision to investors yesterday but didn't get a particularly warm reaccepting stocks slid 3.8% david solomon spoke on mixed messages around promises to scale up and signal that some parts could be sold. this was particularly true around the consumer business which we talked to david about yesterday. he wrused the phrase "strategic alternatives" at one point this is the credit card business or apple for general motors, how much they're losing on that, still an open question and what they can really do the with that he leaned in and thought there were mistakes made but there

were ways to fix them, but when you think of alternatives, are you saying i'm jet sonning this whole thing and it all was a mistake and people didn't know which was which. >> he sounded frustrated later in the day he got pressed again and again with the same questions you had asked him earlier in the morning. i think the frustration comes from the idea they're not looking at the consumer side of the business, the credit card side of the busy being profitable. >> what does goldman want to be exactly? it was always -- i could never be a goldman client. i knew that. but i don't want to be a client of a firm that would have me and all of a sudden goldman is going to come down to my level they never should have done that i think they had morgan stanley

envy what wasset that >> if there is morgan stanley envy -- >> pick a bank bair bank of america envy. >> the envy is the higher multiple that is applied to sticky money that sits around in wealth asset management, otherwise fee-generating low capital-intensive businesses that's what they're looking at the idea of trading and investment tradinging which, by the way, they do a good job of it, better than probably everybody in the world, but the market for better or worse does not give them money because it's lumpy money. it's a lumpy business. >> that's how i see goldman sachs. >> there's an argument you made you just lean into that. >> huh >> there's an argument you made

you just lean into that. own the idea it's going to be lumpy money. the question is can you convince an investor public that that should get a higher multiple because they're so good at it. >> was it envy for american express and what they've been able to do with the premier cards that have a higher cash amount >> i'm not going to base my life on a multiple like that. >> the other question is just the execution story. >> the stock price will follow the earnings >> you could make an argument that strategically it was the right idea and the execution of it was wrong, which is to say, you want to get credit cards sure do you want to get caret it cards with those terms, maybe not? >> is new coke a good idea no stick with what you do. >> we've got a lot more coming up a very big deal in the sports world for a top talent agency

representing some of the biggest names in the nfl we'll talk sports, sports by, a business, and a traction have you ever considered getting a walk-in tub?

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welcome back to "squawk box. venture capital firm master ventures teaming up to acquire a top stake in athletes first representing aaron rodgers, aaron donald and dak prescott. congratulations on the deal, a big one. a lot of people, both in the nfl and sports business world talking about it and what it portends for the future of the nfl, but also just broadly we're talking about sports valuations, licensing and how much money

players are going to be making how does this deal come about? >> well, i met brian almost two years ago and i admired athletes first from afar. i loved what brian had built i think it was the best brand in the sports management industry and when we got together, we realized we had a shared vision as to what agency 2.0 looks like the next generation of athletes, what that might look like. and we had a shared vision and here we are. >> brian, what does agency 2.0 look like? >> i think agency 2.0 is really exciting for us. i think over the last 20 years we have done a great job of negotiating contracts and doing marketing deals and helping out with charity work and providing training and everything that you think of in terms of traditional representation services. but i think 2.0 we want to take it to the next level and really help these young individuals, you know, self-actualize as people and get them involved in business, as rudy said many

times, get them involved as owners, take advantage of the platform they have to do some change for social good and really just take it to the next level. that's why we're excited about this partnership. >> rudy, what is your sense of how much players are going to be making, five years from now, ten years from now, the valuations of these teams keep going up, the salaries keep going up, the sponsorship deals keep going up, but there is also a big question about whether the media ecosystem that is supported all of this is going to be able to hold up. >> that's a great question i don't think it is just the media industry, andrew i think there is other lines and revenue streams that are going to come into play. we obviously have game land, web 3.0 was sufficient but we think it might come into play as well moving forward we see multiple revenue streams coming in and then also i think the commissioner has done a tremendous job in making it a goal, so in essence of media, we think the media rights will obviously extend globally and

not just domestically moving forward and i think the players have a lot of leverage and tailwinds in getting a lot of those -- the revenue from those deals moving forward >> brian, when you think of a pie chart, about how much money one of your clients can make over time, how much of it is actually in salary from the nfl itself, and how much do you think comes from these other sort of buckets and what do those buckets look like? >> sure. >> how is that different from a star versus maybe a hate to say a utility player, but maybe somebody who is not a star >> yeah. well, utility players making pretty good money now too, so i think that's a traditional pie chart, you look at it probably 80% of the players' revenues are coming from playing contracts and maybe, you know, between 5% and 20% from marketing endorsement deals, depending upon whether the utility player or a star. but i think, you know, look at someone like rudy, rudy played in the nfl, he's done pretty well making some money, and i think that's really where we

want to focus on if you take the salaries, the marketing money and you teach them how to be better business people and how to be owners and invest and how it get involved with some of the things, i think that pie chart changes substantially. >> rudy, you got a take on the commanders you think jeff bezos is going to buy it what should happen to dan snyder >> good question i wish dan the best of luck. but i think that we still have some more time in reference to that transaction moving forward. i think it is going to get a little bit messier before it gets cleaned up. >> and what do you think about the bucks on -- i mean, i got to hit basketball for half a second >> look at you you couldn't help it. >> the nba price, you have a whole other life as well, you know >> this is true. this is true it keeps going one way and i think that bodes well for all of us, but it keeps going one way. and we can't be more excited so, again, i think that a lot of those tailwinds will help us

moving forward and we're really excited. >> okay. rudy and brian, appreciate it. congratulations. look forward to following your progress on all of it. >> thank you >> thanks for having us. have a good day. >> have a good day >> joe >> that was -- nets are supposed to perform a little better didn't happen st nhtlaig with the bucks, obviously not good to ensure more customen buy more sherpa-lined jackets, you call ibm to automate your it infrastructure with ai . now your systems monitor themselves. what used to take hours takes minutes. and you have an ecommerce platform designed to handle sudden spikes in overall demand... as in actual overalls. ♪♪

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of march as investors try to recover from a losing month in february the newly formed select committee on china holding its first hearing on recent national security offenses and warning u.s. companies about doing business there we will speak to committee member mikie sherrill. and elon musk says he will unveil his third master plan at the tesla investor event today what you can expect is coming up second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen a lot going on u.s. equity futures at this hour, 70 points. nasdaq up about -- i can't see, 59 points. the s&p 500 up about 11 points

treasuries right now, let's show you the ten-year note, looking at 3.924 the two-year, 4.822. we'll talk a little crypto later. >> ten-year just won't cooperate. it just doesn't. it just isn't. we'll see. we haven't seen mitch in a long time. >> the two-year, what does that tell you if the ten-year is not cooperating, the two-year is getting to that. >> the spread, it is 90 points >> 89 i think yesterday, yeah. >> it is 90 now. >> is it 90? >> no, it's -- >> need a calculator >> 90. >> it is hard to do. you want to subtract the two year from the ten-year let's get to dom chew u with a o at this morning's green market movers hey, dom. >> hi, joe, becky, andrew, good morning. a big earnings story of the morning so far for the morning movers as lows, we got america's second biggest home improvement

retailer up fractionally premarket. roughly 10,000 shares of volume after a mixed quarterly report profits came in better, but revenues narrowly missed expectations revenue forecast fell shy of some estimates, so on balance, a mixed report but just some fractional gains for america's second biggest home improvement retailer also, notable upgrade getting some attention this morning, shares of procter & gamble up about a percent or so, roughly 5,000 shares of volume helped by analysts at ubs who upgraded that stock from buy to neutral they raised the target price to $163 it was $157. they think the maker from tide to pams per and gillette is on the verge to unlocking more earnings growth in the coming months due to china's reopening in part. and cnbc prosubscribers can get more details on that upgrade, go to cnbc.com/pro. shares up 1%

let's count things off with a check on shares of tesla, the electric vehicle giant is up about a percent now, half a million shares of volume today is that big investor day in austin, texas, for analysts and shareholders it is expected that elon musk will lay out his master plan for a new plan to mexico as well as possibly a lower priced tesla electric vehicle those shares of tesla, if you look, we lost about 27% of their value, but, again, since the lows that we saw in january 6th, this stock has doubled in value, so tesla shares, huge focus here, joe, i'll send things back over to you. >> all right yeoman's work, dom, really very good. thank you. do you have a producer is this all you? >> so, this is a combination of things, right. i work on some of the editorial aspects. we have got talented group of desk producers who kind of put some of the dpgraphics together

and your own show team helps too. >> it works. >> we know it. >> it works, thanks, dom. >> you got it, guys. let's check out shares of kohl's plunging after the company reported a loss. analysts had expected earnings of 98 cents a share. comp sales fell by 6.6% and now you see it, the stock is down by about 11.6%. we'll continue to keep an eye on that as these retail earnings roll in. right now, though, we want to talk more about the broader markets and for that we have anastasia am rarosa at i capital people are looking at january and blown away at the huge gains. february gave a lot back the dow is now in negative territory for the year year to date, i tshould say is it enough of a pullback does it makes stocks look more attractive to you or are you worried there is more of a roller coaster ride to come? >> yeah, hi, becky i think it makes stocks look

more attracti ive than what we started february with. there was a clear disconnect between what the bond markets were saying and pricing in and what the stocks were pricing in. you fast-forward to today, march 1st, we had 5% pullback in stocks from the highs we saw year it date and look at the fed fund futures, pricing in 5.4%, ten-year pushing 4%. so i would say we're a lot more appropriately reflecting the environment in which we are and now as we sit at the key moving averages, i think investors might be tempted to see if they want to add on the pullbacks i think it is a better entry point f you look at the valuation of the s&p 500 and not just for next year, but if you average out the next two years worth of earnings, that pe protracted to 60.5 times so stocks perhaps are not as expensive as you think. >> are there areas that you think are more attractive than other sectors you like >> yeah. there is a few spots

so, first of all, if you look at cross sectors and what are the sectors that have the cheapest stocks inside of them over the last five years, the one that stands out the most is communication services and, of course, we know some of the pricing we had in big tech, but, again, some of the big tech is actually going to be the beneficiaries of the next wave of digital innovation, artificial intelligence. so, given how cheap relatively speaking they have gotten, i look to some of those comp services names the other one, becky, is public reits. we had a major repricing in real estate in the public market last year, so much so that the implied cap rate, 6% 6.5%, versus what you see in the private markets, which is 4%, 4.5%, i would say a lot of the rates for pricing in real estate has occurred and if you look historically at reits, they tend to actually outperform once we go through the growth slowdown. so, that's the second sector i

would look at. and then the third -- >> can i just push backen on t one, real estate is interesting, a lot of people think it has come down so significantly brookfield walked away from a loan connected to two of their trophy offices they had in downtown l.a and from people i talked to, that raises the big concern, once you see companies actually walking away from loans, that's going to create even additional pressure on commercial real estate in some downtown areas. >> yeah, that's right, becky first of all, there is a big distinction between publicly traded reits and private real estate and i do agree with you that that adjustment process is still ongoing in private real estate there is a few things i would say, from a macro standpoint, we need to see the cap rates move higher for some of the reasons you mentioned, because we're still going through the correction process and that will adjust downwards the prices of real estate. the second thing that we have to grapple with is the net

operating income growth for commercial real estate is clearly slowing. it was running at 8% last year, this year probably at 4% so you put those two things together, higher cap rates, and that is likely to pressure the prices of commercial real estate in the private markets i'm saying that it has already been reflected in valuations in the public markets, however. but one of the opportunities we're looking for is actually exactly what you mentioned is opportunistic real estate because as some lenders default, or as some property developers default on those loans, and those properties may still have very solid fundamentals, that creates the special circumstances, special situation that some of our commercial private -- some of our cra managers would be able to access. >> okay. and just finally, we have got some big numbers coming up, you got another cpi read that is due, we have got a jobs report that is going to come up, and i just wonder, the macro pressures

on the market, if these numbers are bad, people are going to assume the recession is coming, if they're good, they're going to assume the fed has to do more how much volatility might there be around some of the numbers? >> yeah, obviously the cpi print is key, and some of the manufacturing numbers are key. i think what we saw in january was probably a little bit abnormal in that we saw really strong seasonality, we saw warmer weather, that resulted in some really strong data and also stronger inflation i suspect we see some reversal of that in february and, for example, the cpi print is supposed to come in at 5.9%. cpi versus 6.4%. i think we are likely to kind of resume the slowdown in inflation, and probably the economy that is moderating so, again, given the adjustment we already had in the market, i think we're much better positioned to withstand any surprises in march >> thank you, we'll see you soon >> thank you, becky. take care. coming up after this,

virginia governor glenn youngkin is going to talk with us about china and his push to block the chinese communist party from buying farm land in his state. he's going to be sitting at this very table shortly before we head to the break, look at what is higher in the premarket this morning both the s&p 500 and the dow "squawk box" coming right back after this ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family... ...or passing down the family business... ...or giving back to the places that inspire you. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank, we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? ♪♪

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tensions rise between the u.s. and china, virginia governor glenn youngkin is taking a stand against a ccp he banned tiktok on state devices and back to build protecting farm land from being purchased by the chinese government. governor, great to have you in the studio. >> great to be with you. like old home week fun to be with you. >> jacket is gone. we like that some of us some of us like that i understood some farm land concerns in some of the western states do you have sensitive places in virginia that they -- are they buying -- they don't want to grow some corn >> this is a real issue. and let's just step back of course, what we have seen is the ccp and the chinese government become much more aggressive about progressing their strategy, which is to

dominate world, let's be clear they're going to do it at the united states' expense and they're using every arsenal element they have from military coercion to economic coercion to surveillance and it is showing up everywhere. yes, in our own farm land, i mean, we have the pentagon, we have quantico, we have the largest naval base in the world, we have wallops island that is launching rockets ten times a year, and they're surrounded by farm land. not the pentagon. >> is that the farm land they're interested in? >> we're not going to allow these bad actors to buy this farm land. >> are they shopping around there? >> we know that there has been -- there has been substantial purchases of farm land across the united states and there has been farm land purchases in virginia. and we're just not going to let it happen. i find it is much better to close the barn door before the horse gets out than to let the horse get out and then wring our hands and say what are we going to do. >> throw in balloon-gate, you look at the islands, worry about

taiwan, the partnership with putin, none of it makes me feel, you know, secure about our relationship with china in the future. >> look what happened in the last few years china has become far more brazen in progressing their agenda. and, yes, it was -- it was the extraordinarily aggressive take on hong kong and clamp ing down it is using their economic might to project their will around the world and it is not just saber rattling but they're building a land bridge to taiwan and taiwan's future is hugely strategic this is a real issue i am glad that we're watching our congressional oversight committees jump in it is bipartisan what has been most interesting is to watch this no longer be a republican issue, but to be a bipartisan issue even chuck schumer said that we have to unite around our

strategy to deal with this ccp. >> well, you know what we cover here on cnbc what does all this mean for a corporation, any corporation, nike, starbucks, take your pick. >> ford. >> tesla apple. >> go down the -- i mean, it -- it is business as usual. the nba. still business as usual. does that need to change >> it needs to change in the sense that there are select industries that we must be proactive in making sure we have trusted supply chains in you look back at the inflation reduction act and what was trying to be accomplished in the inflation reduction act, which was for the first time to have a view that we need trusted supply chains in electric vehicles and solar panels and wind turbines you look at what was done in the chips act and recognizing we need a trusted semiconduct are industry. >> you like the chips act. you see now that you got to have child care, has got to be union

child care, basically. across the board, it is a democrat wish list for stuff that they couldn't pass and build back better. and they actually admitted it. i think gene romano said these are things congress couldn't do so we're going to do it here would you do it? are you for it >> the skinny chips act i was for. >> no buybacks >> no buybacks for five years in the new chips act, but allows chinese companies to come into the united states and gets access to our incentives for evs. it doesn't make any sense. >> what about intel? you talk to the ceo of intel, he says, look, i'm ready to roll in ohio but i can't get the money commerce department hasn't sent the checks yet and we have all these strings that come attach fod ed to it, it puts off we're against building chips. >> we have to press forward with what was promised. pat has a great strategy in ohio

i wish they came to virginia they came close. we're recruiting companies like that to virginia but the money needs to flow. this is the investment that has to happen now. and part of our challenge is the pace it takes to build capacity to compete and we find ourselves at this moment where we know we need to build semiconductor capacity, we know we need to build electric vehicle battery capacity, we know we need to build solar panel technology capacity, and turbine capacity but we're diddling around on the edges and making it hard to do this i'll repeat, though, we need trusted supply chains. and the big challenge that we're seeing is that when things get tough, with regards to what i would call political agenda, that progressive democrats break. if something is going to stand in the way of their progressive agenda, then they'll break and compromise we cannot compromise we have to move fast, we have to move with certainty. and we have to recognize that the chinese government does this in their home market

when i was at carlisle, the chinese government demonstrated clearly that they were going to have a protectionist approach to their home market. now what they're doing is they're exporting imperial economics. and they're pressing around the world in order to inject their philosophy, which let's remind ourselves is communism, not democracy. they don't play by the same rules. >> what is strategic for you this is a broader question we talk about business there may be certain industries and supply chain issues that you care about, do you think financial services companies and big investment firms like black rock and bridgewater and carlisle and others should be investing in businesses in china. should that be ooff limits is that good for america is it not good for america should nike be there should apple be there? it goes back to joe's question, but which of the businesses that you say this is fine, and i'm cool with it, this is a business i'm not cool with?

is it business by business or is it, you know what, we don't like the whole thing? >> first of all, i do believe that if businesses want access to the chinese domestic market, they're going to play by chinese rules. and we in fact have to establish what our rules are and there are strategic sectors that must in fact be managed in a way that bad actors aren't allowed to invade the supply chain. and we know those sectors. so, it is not shoes. it is not shoes. it is semiconductors >> is investing in china unto itself and being in business in china unto itself either a problem? is it -- and the reason i ask this is, you know, we have businesses, u.s. businesses that get involved in politics and other social issues here in the united states, and then people say, well, you know, this makes no sense, how could they be saying this, if they're doing business in china, where they're playing by as you said the chinese rules and by playing by the chinese rules unto itself,

does that give either cover or license or just even something else to china that you think strategically is not the right idea >> first of all, i believe in free markets and i do believe at the end of the day consumers will choose what products they want to buy, who they want to do business with and they will discipline companies to be consistent with values that consumers hold dear. >> sounds like esg. >> and that is the -- that is the big challenge that we have got right now, which is in fact in china, that the government is saying you will do business our way. we know their way, their way is to not only foster, but to steal intellectual property and send it back. >> that's why the conundrum is, i can believe in free markets, right, the idea that a business -- but then you're going to go do business in a country that doesn't believe in free markets and is that, right, this is a philosophical question, but -- >> the reality is that, you

know, our economy is 25 plus trillion and china is 22, 23 trillion and these economies are, in fact, intertwined. that's why we have to be very specific about sectors that we are not going to allow the chinese government to invade >> he just mentioned esg >> no because -- did you see chuck schumer's piece? the same thing you say, it is the shareholders pushing the companies to embrace esg and therefore it is a free market. you and chuck? no >> hold on -- >> we only have a minute left. i just want to -- why are you in new york do you come here often >> i come here occasionally. i'm recruiting companies >> do you come back here so -- can you come back for 2024 while we have a minute left, i want to ask you about 2024 we had former vice president pence on and we talked about him, nikki haley, ron desantis

whoever. he said republican voters will pick the right candidate did you see some of the recent polls that are just out? donald trump is up again do you think donald trump is the right nominee in 2024? and if the republican primary voters pick him, will you support? >> so, first of all, i'm going to support the republican nominee. >> whoever it is okay do you think it should be -- >> here's what i do know in historic primary races, the early leaders oftentimes are not the ultimate winner. and in fact in 2016, donald trump at this stage was hardly in the running >> there is five, six, seven -- are you going to be a candidate? >> i'm focused on virginia right now. i'm always humble bed by this t topic. i've been doing this for two years now. i think the people that are asking this question of me is -- >> it is a blue state. >> we're winning

>> we're driving our economic development. we're driving education to a new place. and raising the ceiling and the floor, we're making sure that law enforcement is supported, not demeaned. >> you're doing it nicely, right? >> and we're doing it in a successful way and a state that truly is purple. and we got a -- >> it is a blueish purple. >> well -- >> that money is seeping into it from -- >> we were able in 2021 to elect a republican governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general. we took back the house. >> to everyone's shock and chagrin on the other side, yeah. but it was -- >> we -- i think we -- we brought a live a view in virginia, we can do better and it wasn't republicans versus democrats. it was all of a sudden a moment where parents came together and said i want a better education for my children and i'm tired of being pushed out of my kid's life it was communities coming together saying i'm tired of the murder rate going up all the

time it was businesses coming together and saying i'm tired of antibusiness regulation. >> now it sounds like you're running. >> it is people coming together saying we want virginia to -- >> next time you're here, you'll be sitting here again? >> absolutely. absolutely >> governor youngkin, thank you. >> thank you >> look at him, booking guests on the set, no less. >> you know, it's in our best interest to hear from everyone i invite everyone on. up next, palantir co-founder joe lonsdale will talk tesla, elon musk and the antiesg movement don't you like this? calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. grocery delivery company instacart generated sharply higher sales in the fourth quarter. an internal memo to employees that said revenue increased more than 50% in q4 transaction volume was up about 16% from the previous year instacart shared the numbers during a call with investors on the call, executives said they were waiting to go public for, quote, more cooperative market we will wait for more cooperative markets for ipos and the like and i miss instacart a lot

i don't know about you guys. meantime, we're going to talk about the anti-esg investment wave, the wealth tax and so much more with palantir co-founder joe lonsdale and mikie sherrill who serves on the house select committee on china is going to talk about last night's hearing, national security concerns and ccp, what it means for companies doing business there and then later coinbase ceo brian armstrong will join us to mlk about the tech layoffs and souch more big hour and a half coming up.

welcome back to "squawk box. joining us now to discuss elon musk, tesla, the esg backlash and so much more, we always enjoy talking to him, entrepreneur and philanthropist joe lonsdale, co-founder of palantir could be like the unofficial mayor of austin these days, it feels like should we talk about -- we were talking about different location, we can talk about often in a second. can we talk esg? we were talking to glenn youngkin we almost got into a esg thing with him there is a massive, it feels like, backlash, politically so, against esg.

the question is, whether you think consumers are having the same backlash or this is really just a lot of sort of rhetoric >> well, good morning, andrew. we talked a lot about this the last couple of years i think it has been a bad couple of years for top down philosophies like esg. it is people saying this is a lie, this is wrong, you know, we have our president going around to oil-producing nations begging them to produce because esg has production, which is much worse for the environment. and you have all these people who wouldn't do defense for years all doing defense now. i think it is probably pretty good to do defense for the u.s., cheaper andallowed before. people realize the concepts were stupid topdown concepts, and we shouldn't be doing it anymore. >> what do you think of -- the reason i ask is whether it is political insofar as you look at a state like texas, state like florida, they will do business

with certain banks, they won't do business with other banks interestingly, i don't know if you saw this, florida and texas have higher credit ratings than states like california they pay higher, they pay more to banks for the municipality b bonds, they're paying a higher rate in california because they have chosen they don't want to do business with either a citigroup or this bank because they think their esg policies have gone too far. so, whether this is -- i guess i'm asking this because it doesn't seem like it is actually economic even. >> it doesn't seem like an economic choice. texas and florida have the right instincts to push back on this nonsense, making a choice to -- >> but dedesanesantis with dizzt is costing taxpayers, they're saying they're so antiwoke and it is fabulous. >> there is a concern cancel culture on the right that can be quite stupid like the cancel culture on the left can be quite

stupid >> you milwake a case, disney shouldn't have had that relationship to start with for the past 50 years so it has nothing -- to take it away is not penalizing the company. >> that's the issue. you can make a fair point that policy shouldn't have been in place for disney -- >> he admits it in the editorial, the reason he did it is because parents weren't able to have a say in what kids were learning in school. >> there should be more charter cities and more charter businesses here's why he did it i sat next to a friend at a wedding who runs one of the big tech companies and he said my board was constantly saying we have to go with the far left, we have to go left, they're going to attack us, they're going to cancel culture us. as soon as desantis did a cancel culture, the board start tad lay off, they're both going to cancel us, we should lay off your job is not to help one side, it is to stay out of

politics you don't want to be involved. >> it is nice to say, thank you, sir, may i have another and then push back. >> has it changed to the point where you can stay out of it it is great for business to get out of politics. it is a dicey place, if you're not on my side, you're my enemy. >> on the right right now, they have been on the weaker side, and the far left is more activist and says you have to be on my side. >> here is the other part i don't understand there is an argument around esg it is consumer led we can debate whether it is consumer led or not, you can say the likes of riff vrivian, or t the entire advent of that business initially was a consumer-led idea around electric vehicles, around climate. that's what it was >> that's a positive side. >> let's not pretend it was anything else. and so when elon musk first started that company, he was a -- he was somebody talking

about climate change constantly. using government money to help him at certain points along the way. let's just understand what is happening here ralph nader, i don't know if you saw him, he called him a welfare queen. it is fascinating about the two sides of all this and how they shifted over time. >> i push back on ralph on that, 10,000 likes, this is a lie, but ralph doesn't like the fact there are people in the world who actually can build things and actually -- >> by the way, i admire what elon musk has built with tesla. >> except for the flame thrower. >> i didn't love the flame thrower. that's a separate issue. >> so esg comes from a very good place. there is a consumer led theme in this country we want a clean environment, we want things that are socially responsible. that part is true. the problem with the frameworks is they get captured by activists, by different -- very powerful groups and imposed topdown things which are stupid. global misinformation index, it is the same idea, it is very

dangerous topdown to censor things and say certain things are bad, you want a society with different bottom up things being done, that's where it gets dangerous. >> now that's a nice lead into the issue of ai. which is how do we -- what is the future of ai look like and talking about elon musk, that's ucki ing he's talking about an anti-woke version of ai and then i don't know if it is politically correct or liberal what is this going to look like in the end warring ais? a master ai that is going to tell us what the actual truth is what is going to happen here >> it looks better again if you have a pluralistic society with multiple ais it is like telecom you got to be careful. everyone wanted to rush to put all the fiber in the ground and turned out the dark fiber wasn't worth that much, even though it did change the world and everyone is rushing right now to train these models there will be a lot of wasted money, frankly.

>> and what does it -- you say wasted money look at chatgpt, is that business worth $29 billion >> i think because -- >> would you take it >> i think it is not a bad investment if you have no other things you are doing at a much earlier stage. i don't think it is 1100 x i think it is a good business. but i think there is a lot of these and i think some of them are going to capture a certain processes and other ones are not going to be worth it. >> it feels like this is the new crypto or dotcom everyone is saying this is our ai. >> it is more substantive than the other crypto stuff crypto i liked bitcoin, ethereum are interesting. 99% of the crypto companies, there is no substance there. a lot of these ai companies are a substance, there is useful things they're doing, it is working. >> is every big tech company, meta saying they're going to create a team for that, is that substantive or chasing the

praise of investors on wall street >> they kind ev3 to chase it a little bit this is the great thing about venture capital. it comes from the word adventure capital. this is an adventure we don't know how it is going to be used. people who go on the adventure first will find things that are useful to compete. they're all on the adventure together and there is probably going to be be some very valuable things to come out of it. >> tell you about venture capital, what is going on with your fund and what are you thinking about next? >> we closed apc fund 5. kept it the same size. i think if you raise billions and billions of dollars, it is hard to return the funds this is -- >> what is the ideal investment right now? >> the ideal investment, we want to solve the most important problems in our country, we're going after things in healthcare, in logistics, in defense, there is all these areas our country needs us all -- >> what don't you want to touch? >> i think you need to touch things where there is new

possibilities in the last five years. it is very hard to do a new consumer company right now because there is not -- unless you're doing something really interesting with ai, not a lot of new possibilities there is more possibilities in other areas. >> joe lonsdale, thank you, sir. great to see you we have a lot more coming up this morning how much do billionaires really pay in taxes and how should they pay is a different question robert pranfrank will bring us numbers next and on this china issue, mikie sherrill will be here, why she says the ccp is a threat to our democracy anwaofif d y le. what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks.

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so, how much do billionaires really pay in taxes? robert frank has done some number crunching and he has some answers for us robert, good morning >> good morning, becky well, president biden saying in recent speeches that, quote, billionaires pay a lower tax rate than firefighters or police officers in fact, they pay a much higher rate this confusion is due to the white house creating a brand-new definition of income one that includes unrealized capital gains like stock

they would count elon musk $50 billion in tesla stock gains so far this year as income and claim he's not paying enough on those unsold shares. now current tax law only, of course, defines realized gains as income. 20% tax on income and unrealized capital gains for those worth more than $100 million now, as for what billionaires really pay, well, the irs doesn't release the average tax rates of the nation's 800 or so billionaires, but it does publish the tax rates for the highest earners or the t top .001%. those taxpayers who earn more than $77 million a year had an average tax rate of 24%. the middle 20% of americans are those with income between 60 and $100,000 had an average tax rate of about 12% so, the tax rate paid by the highest earners is more than

twice that of the average firefighter or police officer. now, even all of this takes into account payroll taxes, so, becky, it shouldn't be news to say we have a progressive tax system, but generally speaking the higher your income, the higher your tax rate, with some exceptions a billionaire may have a capital loss one year that rolls over to the next year broadly speaking they pay a much higher rate. >> one question for you, robert. this does not take into account s corporations, capital gains taxes, capital gains rates, relative to income rates if you start to do that, it gets a little more complicated, don't you think? >> well, so when they calculate the average rate for these top .001%, a lot of those have capital gains income some of them don't that's why this average rate, andrew, does include those whose

majority income comes from capital gains. that's why this rate is around 24% as opposed to 35 or 37%, which is the actual top rate on income so, yes, it does include that, but when you blend it all together, and get that average rate, including those who make a large part of their income from capital gains, it is about a 24% rate compared to 12% >> the math would be, like, you know, if you buy the plane and depreciate the plane in the s corporation, do you see what i'm saying i think that actually the numbers actually are slightly different, if you start to adjust for -- both the cost and depreciation and real estate and 1031 i'm not so sure. >> i'm just giving you what the irs reports. of course, a lot of people report their partnership or pass through income on their individual returns and those individual returns, which include pass through s

corp. corp., llcs is in that top blend number i get you, there are a lot of people we think at the very top pay next to nothing because they write everything off, but this is the top rate for that top group, including pass throughs. >> robert, thank you coming up -- >> that's the other part of this go. go air that runs factory. go sensors and software.

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all right. welcome back, everybody. the new house select committee on china holding its first hearing last night in a rare showing of bipartisanship, they warned of economic threats by the communist party. and joining me is congresswoman mikie sherrill this is an issue that is a rare spot of bipartisanship what happened here what gosst to the point this is going to be the issue that both sides of the aisle agree on? >> we had been seeing the bad actions of china in the economic sphere, whether it was dumping or subsidies or buying up farmland so we are all together on taking

actions now. this is a turning point. the decision i think has come to the point where instead of being this market that we were hoping would be more and more open, not just to economic advances but to democracy, we are realizing that that is not the case, that they are actually consolidating power under xi, that he has witbeen a very bad actor economically and politically. >> what does that mean for american businesses that have built up big businesses in china or have big parts of the supply chain? >> i think a couple things first of all, the goal of this is to make american businesses more competitive so that's why you see things like the chips act that's why you see things like the ira, making sure that we are reassuring american manufacturing and building up that manufacturing base. but for those american

businesses that have significant investment in china, i think it's time to start to look at where is your supply chain is it utilizing forced labor some of these forced labor camps are really committing what you saw last night, some people call a modern genocide with forced sterilization of certain parts of the population. are your workers in danger what if your ceo says something that china or xi does not like these are things that companies have to start to question as we move forward >> i think companies are doing that themselves based on all the trouble with the supply chain with covid it showed us how brittle our supply chain was are they moving quickly enough for you and are they going to be fun punished if they're not doing

things they like >> the attempt is to make american business more resilient and competitive. we are looking at the long term, how our companies can fairly complete in a global economy china for too long has used its economic power to punish nations and punish companies if they step out of line here i'm thinking about australia, for example, just questioning where covid came from and that was met with repercussions. the nobel peace process prize, awarding a prize to a chinese dissident and then china punishing norway these are things that are acceptable we have to fight for freedom of speech, innovation and development that comes with it and holding china accountable economically against illegal subsidies, dumping, forced labor, all the ways in a have made it hard for american companies to complete globally >> you reference the chip act to

make sure this is something we're doing but we heard from the commerce department that it's putting a whole set of rules and guidelines on companies that want to make investments in the united states that includes things like paying for child care and having buybacks and my feeling is that some companies say wait a minute, this is not the deal we signed up for, it's going to slow progress are you concerned about that >> that is always the case as we pass legislation and then the administration puts out the regulatory framework for the legislation that congress passed there are always ways in which those regulations can be harmful. i have pushed back around regulations around the covid money. it was bad for new jersey and we had the formulas changed

we are trying to handle a lot of different issues at ones and wunon of those issues is they don't have enough employees. and child care is a huge problem in the country it's a huge problem in new jersey to be frank, this has not changed in 17 years since i first had to find child care for my newborn it's deplorable, difficult there was about a 50/50 chance at that time i was going to leave the workforce. this is something we need to address for women but we also want to make sure our companies are able to compete and make use of these subsidies >> congresswoman sherrill, thank you. >> thank you >> coming up, tesla, we'll bring you the latest and don't miss our exclusive interview with coinbase's ceo

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impressive. okay, you've convinced me, i'm back. just gonna... get this... . good morning futures in the green on this first day of march after a solid start to the year. the major averages posted declines in february tesla reportedly eyeing a revamp

to its best settle model why? this comes as shareholders lays out his plan for the company >> and a new call for common sense crypto regulation from one of the industry's biggest players. we have an exclusive interview with the ceo of coinbase right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site. we'll join you with the ceo of coin base in minutes u.s. futures are slightly higher a pretty rough session again, very similar to what we saw in

february, especially in the last week of february and nasdaq indicated up about 40 points s&p back just below 4,000. 3,970, which is there all the time it goes above, goes below. 3970 is where it closed. treasury yield still below 4% on the ten-year even as the rhetoric seems to get more and more hawkish the ten-year not exactly cooperating. maybe it will be and the two year, a pretty big invention at this point >> the news out from eli lily. >> eli lilly announced it is

cutting the price on insulin congress is trying to act. lilly is taking a step that's even further than what we've seen before, lowering the list price of humalog and humulin they have a non-branded insulin they're going to bring down to $25 per vial from more than $80 and they'll announce a product similar to sonofi's lantus and they will cap the cost to $35. the ceo saying in a statement this morning that "while the current health care system provides access to ins lynns for most people with diabetes, it

still does not for everyone and that has to change we've heard of people rationing their insulin. some people are dying because of having to ration their insulin there's aless list price and yoa see the blue is the list price $275 is vial and they're only realizing $43 of that. what's significant is they're actually lowering that list price. this is something we almost never see drug companies do. lilly is one of the big three

insulin makers we'll have so see what the impact will be >> the world health organization said three companies control 90% of the world's insulin supply. right now you see eli lilly shares down while the others are up doesn't that put pressure on those companies, too >> it probably does. the companies say they can't lower the list price because they have to give huge benefits to these pharmacy managers we'll have to see what effect it has on the pharmacy benefit managers do they feel they have to lower the list prices. the biden administration did manage to cap the costs for people who have medicare at $35 per month, but that didn't cover commercial insurance

there's still a lot of folks who need help. >> this is a longer question, we don't need to dive into it now i'd love to have you look into whether pharmacy benefits managers are good or bad in terms of what they bring to the system and what it means for prices across the board. it's a question that's been debated for a long time. >> and congress is looking into it, too. >> thank you >> let's get back to the bottom markets and bring in mike. up again this morning. mike, didn't last yesterday. >> no, it didn't only down about 30 basis point on the s&p 500 volume has been light, conviction is lacking. i would say it's a low intensity test of the rally we had coming into the year and starting in october. here's a two-year look at the s&p. it's kind of helpful now you're more or less flat, up

1.75% point to point in another week or so if we stay at this level, we're going to be flat it's hard to escape the idea it's been this prolonged trading range going back to last spring. most of the reckoning with the higher rates and potential for recession seem to culminate in october and coming to terms with what looks like a longer, elongated cycle. the s&p 400 midcap has been a pretty good performer relative to large caps, especially opening up, this is a six-month look here. it has been an area of the market that's less expensive than mega caps it has sturdier companies that are relatively more mature it's been a bright spot in the market for a while now

the bond market in terms of treasuries is suggesting danger, inverted yield curve, absolute yield levels are draying people toward safety on the short end of the curve but here's the high yield relative to a treasury etf. this is showing you going back to the middle of last year whether the credit market is wrong and they're a little bit overenthusiastic about what they're going to able to get or not, usually you're going to see cracks in the credit pictureses. we have estimates going down but maybe not precipitously enough to crack the credit market, though >> i don't know which market is right. how can they both be right >> it's a range of possibilities and they reflect both parts of that >> after 40 years at bairon's, i

guess that explains it all >> when i left, i was still a young guy. >> it was dow jones and santoli, i think. thanks, mike you started young. >> our next guest says the fed can't reign in inflation without bringing in significant recession. i want to bring in rick. it's really good to see you. it's been a while since we've gotten a chance to talk to you you've got a new paper that's out. it basically says the fed is damned if they raise rates and damned if they don't >> i don't know if i'd put it quite that way but the bottom line, in this paper that we presented at the u.s. monetary

forum, we looked at history and did economic modelling the history says they looked at 16 cases with inflation down in every single case you got a recession. so, you know, maybe this time is different but that's usually dangerous thinking so just on that basis alone, the likelihood of a recession is extremely high this is particularly true also from an economic theory viewpoint when it's central bank that's behind the surf, in 2021, which you might now i've been on cnbc since april of '21 being very critical. you have to raise rates a lot and you inevitably have a recession. this is just life. the fed is doing the right thing now. they have actually gotten on board to do what they had to do. they stopped being gradual, they

were not preemptive, they now are. but the bad news is that you got to get the economy to slow down in order to get inflation down when it's actually burst up in a way it has recently. >> let me just say there are other people who look at what you're talking about in history where feds try and raise interest rates and inevitably we wind up in a recession opinion some will say it's because banks will raise rates to quickly. some are saying wait and look around and see the lag effect before you continue to raise rates at additional paces. what do you say back to that >> this is super dangerous thinking one of the things we look at in in paper is we look at a situation where is the focus of

inflation. many don't remember what went on there. the federal reserve in october '79 raised interest rates to very high levels and 17% actually, a pretty high level, and then a recession started and they backed off. the result was inflation did not come down, in fact there was no ability to control inflation and now weakened it. to his credit, he realized it was a mistake and the fed raised federal fund rates over 20% and finally it took several years of very high interest rates then to get inflation down it is super dangerous thinking the fed should pivot when central banks have done that, they haven't done their job and lose credibility

particularly important is when you've gotten behind the curve, you have to reestablish credibility and you have to be tough. now, it's true you might go too far. central banking, by the way, is not an easy business there is a lot of art to it, there is science a lot is art so you never quite get it perfect but on the other hand, you need to back off because you're too worried about a recession is what produces much worse recession than would otherwise occur. people forget the most severe unemployment rate, the unemployment rate went above what it was in the financial crisis >> while inflation was still high it was like a misery index of 25, rick the only problem i have with all this, if you are willing to

concede that we spent too much fiscally and that the fed enabled that and then i'll believe that this inflation is really engrained but there's still think it's supply chain reopening problems after the pandemic, which would, in fact, be more transitory. the fed could pretend they have the conviction of the converted and they they need to be called vocal when maybe pause is what's necessary because it's not really the same type of -- but you seem to think it is monetary and fiscal inflation that did this >> i think it's both one of the reasons i've become so critical of the fed, it's because of my teaching when you actually look at models of understanding what happens to the macro economy, we think of average demand and average

supplies demand and supply factor there was a huge supply factor here, there's no question there was a big bottleneck the right thing to do is let it happen here's the mistake the huge mistake that they made in forecasting and i think a lot of the people who are taking the view that you just described is team transitory temperature team transitory didn't think about demand shocks. one was huge fiscal expansion and i think actually a mistake i was very critical of the bill in 2021. and the second thing is there was all this pent-up demand because you couldn't go out and do anything. so i was saving like crazy because i was locked in my house with my wife not so bad because i liked her but on the other hand, i didn't

spend a any money. when i got out, i started spending a lot i would teach my students it's a supply shock with a demand shock and that means things will not be as temporary that, in fact, the higher inflation can build into inflation expectations rising but lukeily the fed changed its view and started raising rates at a rage i did not anticipate they made some serious mistake but they're a learning organization they turned it around 180 degrees very quickly and inflation expectations starred to move up and they've moved back down again. the bottom line is make mistakes, be alert, i think the fed has so i'm much more positive about what the fed is doing now. but this team transitory stuff was wrong before and it's wrong now to think the fed doesn't have to piet tighten the way it has and a lot more

>> thank you, rick it's been a while and we'd like to see you back soon >> i like cnbc but no this early in the morning >> no, we like you early >> he just said he was totally against that first big stimulus. if that's what it is, then it might be tough to tame maybe it's why it's not transitory coming up, we'll get you ready for tesla's investor day and coin base's ceo will join armstrong and key take aways from yesterday's high-profile congressional hearing on china stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc which kept coming and going, i should have gone to the doctor. instead, i tried to let it pass. if you experience irregular heartbeat,

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tesla fans and investor gearing up for a big day phil lebeau is here to tell us why would anything surprise you in terms of -- it used to be steve jobs, oh, and there's also this elon has a way of doing that, too. >> right but it's been a while, joe i mean, there was a time when, you know, he would bring out the

new tesla semi, the truck and the big truck,the full 18-wheeler, so to speak. he would bring that out. i was in the crowd that night. what comes out of the bag? the new roadster, which we haven't seen built yet those kind of surprises, we haven't seen those in a while. what can we expect today it's all about master plan number three he's had two previous master plans. in this master plan, he's expected to talk about what's the next generation of growth for tesla, including is there a model that he's going to outline. maybe they're not going to give us specifics, it's a model two and here is the price but he's likely to talk about where do the next generation of vehicles come from. and what about mexico? remember yesterday the president of mexico said tesla will be building a plant in monterey how close it is to the border

rear remains to be seen and whether it's actually in the city of monterey he says it will be very big and details will be coming today from elon musk what about the factory in texas? they're already building the model y in that giga factory and that model y is the most popular vehicle that they've built themselves but the cyber truck will be going into production at that giga factory later this year with deliveries expect to ramp in 2024. if you look at the share of tesla, investor day while it's so much about the vehicles, it also is about the battery platforms and increasing battery production and drifing down cost >> you're not going to be dressed up in one of those robot outfits dancing around or --

>> those are a.i. days don't confuse your day those are investor days. a.i. day is about robotics. >> i kid about batteries but that is the holy grail it helps you with distance, with not having to charge design is one thing and fancy trucks -- odd looking trucks are another, but it is all about batteries. it's all about that. and we have a -- >> that will be the focus today. >> it will >> yup >> okay. >> coming up, one of the star witnesses on china coming up stay tuned

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dumping or subsidies or buying up farmland. so we are all together on taking actions now. >> that was representative mikie sherrill, who joined us this morning. joining us now, matt pottinger, a hoover institution distinguished visiting fellow, former deputy national security adviser in the trump administration we try to frame everything from the angle of u.s. companies, matt, and i don't know, it all seems diametrically opposed to what our corporate interests are there. it would be nice to look the way on everything and keep selling a bunch of sneakers or starbucks can we no longer do that in good conscience >> it's a good question. it's great to be with you this morning. i think we should first credit

china's supreme leader for doing what no one else could have done, which is to bring democrats and republicans to the in that consensus, bipartisan sort of chorus, the voices that you heard last night and they just showed a clip of congresswoman sherrill i heard a lot of warning signs last night coming from democrats and republicans. it sounds to me like they're exploring ways to start restricting outbound investment into chinese companies that are involved in human rights violations or that are helping china's military modernization >> it seems like we have a symbiotic relationship with china to some extent so what's their game plan? they must know -- the ccp must know they can push this too far to where, you know, it's going to hurt global trade

you know, they live on exports, we live on chinese imports all this is at risk if it becomes clear that all they're really interested in is global domination and that's what we're saying that's what glenn youngkin was sort of saying, that they want to i think dominate the world at our expense. >> well, i think if you look at xi jinping and the actual speeches he's been making in recent years, some of those were kept secret for years but have dribbled out in chinese language theoreti theoretical journals and things like that. the guidance given to the communist members that rule china, he's not concerned with growth of the chinese economy. he's concerned with political consolidation of power, centralizing the party's control over the economy, including

private company. that's why we receive d destruction of value in chinese companies. it looks like that's going to continue economic growth, further trade with the world are distant second or third-tier priorities for this leadership. he's about politics, about ideology, about exploiting what he calls the greatest opportunity in a century to exploit chaos in europe and the things that russia's doing to try to expand an empire in the eastern hemisphere >> we added it all up earlier, i mean, between what could happen with taiwan and scooping up farmland, next to very sensitive facilities and balloongate what do they want this information for? do they want to have it or is

something really nefarious being planned? if you are a conspiracy nut, if it was a lab leak, obviously we're not saying that was intentional but they did close their own borders but didn't close international borders and it did spread around the globe you could come up with some really scare situations. you know, if our fpharmaceutical constituents aren't available to us anymore, we better firm up, wouldn't you say >> yeah. china is looking to control and hoover in as much of the world's data as possible to feed machine learning and artificial intelligence these are areas that beijing is explicitly intent on dominating. and so i think that we have to recognize that data is in xi

jinping's own words the oil of the 21st century it's as important to their modern production and control of key sectors of the economy as oil was important to economies in the 20th century. and the lab leak, you've seen now this week the department of energy and its advisers and intelligence unit as well as the federal bureau of investigation have determined with at least low confidence that it was probably a lab leak that led to this pandemic. i agree what you said. i think it was almost certainly an accident that this leaked out but the work that was going on in these labs was not accidental and we still don't have really important data from china about what it was that they were doing in those lapsebs and what virus

they were working on >> i was thinking of the kind of novel someone could write and i hope it's fiction and doesn't become nonfiction. there's some scary scenarios >> bill clinton read one of those novels it's what scared him into acting >> thank you appreciate it. keep worrying. we all will. see you. andrew >> i just made it over to coin bases headquarters and we have an interview with ceo brian armstrong. we're going to talk about the gover government's crypto crack down, regulations, a call for clearer regulations and what it all means. you're watching "squawkbox" on cnbc

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welcome back this morning. the sec escalating its crackdown, charging the former co-engineer of ftx as they investigate fraud into the country. we're going to talk now about the crypto landscape, the regulatory world and a lot of up upheaval in all of it.

he has a new op-ed welcome this morning good morning >> thank, andrew >> you have a fascinating piece. this really goes to what i think is the big issue, which is do you believe and i know what you believe but should policy makers enact some form of real legislation here if we don't, what happens in terms of that business going abroad, and can it be done without regulation just to say a lot of folks looks at what the sec is doing right now and they're looking at enforcing actions across the board that are trying to make a point but maybe not necessarily creating clear guidelines and what the right answer is >> yeah, i think new legislation is needed. the reason is that if you look at americans, 80% of them feel like the current financial system doesn't work for them the fees are too high, delays are there and doesn't serve everybody equally. it's not a surprise. the system is build on

40-year-old technology, laws were around for a hundred years before the internet existed. my belief is crypto currency is the most important technical can i -- ktechnology that can update householding they're getting organized saying we want to elect candidates to help create regulation >> becky and i were talking about this earlier it feels like we're closer but also feels like we're just as behind as we were five years ago. >> i've been spending more time in d.c. and there is strong support for legislation. everybody say what happened to ftx and said we need to make sure there's strong regulation we don't want this to be like 5g or the semi-conductor industry that got moved offshore too

much we need it to be built here in america with consumer protections. there are at least five senators working on different bills being drafted in different forms it takes a small miracle any too many something becomes law i'm excited to see there are people passionate about making that happen. voters will elect candidates to do that. >> senator elizabeth warren says we have money laundering rules that cover banks and credit unions and stockbrokers and gold dealers but current rules don't cover big parts of the crypto industry and crypto likes it that way is she right >> that's simply not true. coin base is a great example of this i started this company and started it in the united states for a reason i believe it needed to be built in a complaint and regulated way.

we've been licensed for about ten years now. we got one of the first bit licenses in the new york, regulated by the ftc and that's just in america. the u.s. risks really being left behind here a little bit the rest of the world is actually moving and trying to draw crypto companies in london and singapore and hong kong and the financial hubs of the world are saying we're want crypto to be built here. europe just passed comprehensive legislation. >> what about saying they can't ultimately be regulated and that is the problem so the policies that the u.s. and sec have put for the, the second we've regulated it, we endorsed it and it somehow gets out of control and we can't do anything about it >> you can regulate the

centralized pieces of cryptos, companies like coin base there's broad consensus about that that's not even a controversial topic. have a great aml program, get rid of wash trading, the basics. let's applied that to the centralized actors in crypto like coin base we've been calling for that for a long time and actually been doing it, even in the absence of clarity. some of these things are not security they are decentralized there's no no central actor that can publish these disclosures. it's a centralized thing >> what do you say to the critic that says we can regular te thee centralized players because what's trading underneath it are these centralized things,

without endorsing or controlling this peace without controlling this piece of it is the complicated part >> it's happening. 20% of americans have now used this technology and they want to use it to upgrade the financial system we can't put our head in the sand and pretend it's not happening. >> it's clearly impacted the valuation of the tokens, it's impacted the valuation of your own company. what's your sense of what's happening here >> well, i mean, crypto has gone through many cycles. even in the last ten years when i started the company, this is the fourth one i've been through. in a way coin base was forged in fire we're used to going through cycles like this we've been shifting more and more of our revenue from trading fees to subscription and services in our q4 earnings, that was

almost half our revenues in subscriptions and services that's allowing us to have a more predictable business to run. >> and a guest said it's going to be worth half a million a point. do you say i believe that in my core, that's crazy talk? what do you think when you hear that >> i'm not here to give a prognostication on the future price of bit coin. i think maybe the more interesting thing are the use case, the utility. it's people who are making payments and doing borrowing and lending. there are people that are what's called web free, new ways to have a social identity or social network or new forms are artwork

or in-game assets. >> you need bit coin to go up in value for the future of your company, right or does it not matter to you >> obviously i'm long crypto currency i think over time it going to go up that happens helps but it's not the whole ball game. we're trying to create a new economy of the world that is more free and fair that's how we're going to get a billion people into the crypto economy benefiting into this they're earning it to earn a living, pay rent and send money overseas >> let me ask you about different use case and this is kraken this was a news headline kraken shut down what was its statement services by order of the sec, you guys came out with a statement as well around --

what did you think of that decision and what is the true impli impli case for your business >> it looks like kraken was more of a staking service the customer is never turning the crypto over to coin base they're in possession of it. it's allowing them to this service and passing through to them it's more of a pass-through service. >> what would you do if the sec said you can't do it >> it's about 3% of our revenue. it's not a huge factor at the moment but i don't think that's going to happen. we feel confident in our analysis that we're well within the law. >> i want to talk to you about the world of stable coin, which i just determined or decided is

no longer meeting listing standards. what does that mean? >> as up in information becomes available, we'll update our analysis in this case, the u.s.-based company issuing the usd decided they're no longer going to mint it that caused us to protect our customers, we shouldn't support it anymore >> do you have concerns about financers? sam bankman faried, who was indicted at ftx, was very outspoken about finance as a company and his concerns about that company do you have a similar concern? >> i'm not here to criticize any of our competitors out there we have competitors across a wide range of products out there. i think what i would say is this -- without a clear rule book that everybody can follow

here in the u.s., more of this business is going to get built offshore and that will kay potential for harm in the u.s. >> what do you make of the idea -- that's a firm, by the way, that has no intention i don't think of being regulated what's going to happen on thaeks change is there's going to be coins that also won't be regulated but those same coins will be exchamber of nged on yo, right? >> we look at every asset independently. because something is traded offshore is not a factor in whether we decide to list it we want to follow the laws of the united states, that it meets our cyber security review, things like that >> what are you telling investors these days the valuation companies that been on quite a run this year. that's the good news since the company went public, down, that's the bad news.

duke chenos challed it a narrative stock. he said people buy it because they have a view on crypto prices or crypto survival or what have you? what do you think of that idea >> i don't know. i would leave that analysis to the investors. the way i think about it as an operator of coin base, i want to neighbor this technology for millions of today and i want to bring benefit to people all over the world and raise economic freedom. we have been managing costs to improve our adjusted ebidta year over year. we're a leaner, more efficient company in this environment. that's what i'm thinking about >> there's been layoffs across silicon valley do you have see more >> i don't see additional layoffs for us

we did high, mid, low planning no company ceo can say it's impossible if something went substantially below our scenario, of course we'd have to reevaluate. i don't see that now >> silicon valley ventures have always said follow the engineers. for a long time they've been going to crypto. that was the space if you asked today, i don't know if it's too hot or not, they'd say ai how do you see that divide and split or something related, meaning crypto and ai together >> ai is having a moment there's more and more engineers going into crypto, too if you look at 2020 versus 2022, the number of engineers on crypto has roughly doubled since 2020 the price of bit coin is up 80%. you have to look at crypto over

these cycles you can't look at the quarter or by measure it's a great indicator of the future >> thank you for joining us this morning. jo bt to see you here in new yo e,ack to you >> coming up, jim cramer's take on the trading day we'll be right back. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only

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want to check in with jim cramer we got your opinion on some of the retailers yesterday. what'd you think of lowe's numbers this morning >> i like lowe's numbers look, i think they're, again, they had some great cadence. that's what i have been looking for. things got better, better, better they had pretty good, obviously, do it yourself the professional was better than i thought. usually, you just see the professional to home depot so, i thought marvin ellison delivered a very good quarter. i know there's a problem with lumber that has to be asterisked but i think it's a good one. i think the stock was down in advance because of the home depot. target was really great yesterday, and i think that people didn't give target enough credit because the market was so ugly at the end of the day but so far, we've got a couple of good retailers that are shining. people like ross stores. i didn't think it was particularly good, but they liked that one everyone's putting a hit on dollar tree lately, and i don't think dollar tree is that good and kohl's sold to you i wouldn't even go there for a

pair of socks. >> i was surprised at how steep the comp store sales declined at kohl's too the stock is down 7.3% when i looked earlier, it was down 11% >> we have same-store sales down 6.6% and accelerating on the downside at a certain point, it's -- it just becomes an irrelevant stock, which is incredible >> it does seem to be some of the big companies have gotten bigger and bigger and taken market share from everybody else i think it's going to be harder to compete as a small retailer >> brian is too polite to say it's kohl's. he can say it's bed bath, sure, but it's kohl's. i think he's crushing kohl's he's got really good private label. i looked into the 3 out of 10 that are so strong my god i think they're much better than the name brand that's what he's dealing with. he's just got remarkable merchandising skills >> jim, they're playing us out i wanted to ask you about -- >> what do they do that for? >> we want to make sure we get to your show on time >> i spend three hours for these

three minutes. >>e pria i first of all, i'm hoping you tell us more about honeywell, and we'll check in with your in 6 minutes, 15 seconds. >> thank you >> we'll be right back ♪ helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep ♪ puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪

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investors getting ready for the opening bell first opening bell of march. joining us now is the private advisor at rockefeller capital management

i don't know, michael, trading range, what's your overall view of what we're likely to see this year in the s&p? >> yeah, that's the -- that's a magic question, joe, but i think of it like this. it's just too easy to be negative right now i mean, if you said at the beginning of the year, in the first two months, s&p's going to be up 3 and change, nasdaq is up 9 and change, you can buy a six-month treasury for 5 and change, you know, that's not too bad of a scenario for the investors out there. now, i do get it where we're coming off one of the worst bond years in history, a year when equities and fixed income were down but i think, you know, inflation's getting under control. you're seeing the inversion slowing. y you're going to start to see it's a pretty good time to buy fixed income right now you'll see the inversion come back to normal it seems that inflation is getting under control, and earnings aren't too bad, as jim just mentioned earlier, so i just feel like there's so much negativity around the global and

geopolitical situation, and people are just taking that and moving into everything so, we don't see it as bad as a lot of people do >> those are good points, mike, and we made the point that if it was just what we know right now in terms of inflation, in terms of whether it's, you know, let's say a landing but not necessarily just a devastatingly hard landing, all these things are front and center, and this is where the market has come to rest right now knowing all this bad stuff so, unless it gets really, really much worse, the market's already discounted a lot of this, but i guess some people are still worried it could get much worse, michael, that inflation could be much more difficult to tame, and that maybe it's not 5.5% as the peak, but maybe it's -- i've heard jim bullard say he's got a range of 5% to 7% if it did get up to 7%, would you then say the market's overvalued >> that's a massive move, to go

to 7%, but at the same time, in your experience and all of our investors' experience, you know the market's precede the economy by whatever 6 to 12 months, and i think we're seeing that right now given all the negative news you saw, and hey, if we walked into this year and said, march 1st, the s&p is up a little bit, nasdaq is up even more, and you can buy a treasury, like we said earlier, the markets are telling you that things aren't that bad, and you're seeing inflation start to come into normal and again, you still have wage growth you have unemployment's low, and in an active management portfolio, these managers are -- you know, they're outperforming, and you sprinkle in some alternatives where last year some of these alts were up 5%, 6%, 7%, i think the future looks pretty bright for the investor >> all right michael, thank you you know, in the news business, if it bleeds, it leads what if it's just average inflation and average downturn and average that

it could be. it doesn't all have to be these extremes we worry about all the time >> i'm with you. >> good to have you on, michael. thank you. markets, you know, that plus 80 didn't last. now we're down 70. i didn't look at crypto, andrew, but that was interesting brian's very calm. i liked it it's good. let's do it again tomorrow make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ >> good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange the bulls are looking for a reset. futures, though, have lost some gains. china's pmi comes in hot, best manufacturing number in over a decade yields are higher today. our road map begins with the first trading day of march, dow and s&p coming off the second negative month of three. >> it is