you think it's not doing well then you heard maybe it's not as bad as you would have thought. costco, maybe people just aren't buying those candy bars by the box. maybe they're -- >> maybe they don't have them in their stores but, yeah, the nordstrom rack also like the decline there, 8% decline, that was pretty fascinating. that will do it for "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now right now on "fast," mortgage rates topping 7% today. only the second time it's happened in yearly 20 years, borrowing costs from cars to corporate debt skyrocketing. when we see them cripple spending when will they trigger any worry in the market. tesla's big vision for the future seemingly clouding how investors feel retail's love affair with elon, is it about to fade? apple trading below a key technical level. what is the tech giant's next move one of the day's biggest winners, salesforce.

i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money. karen finerman, guy adami and we start off with the great rate spike. the two-year getting within just three basis points of 5%, a level it hasn't touched since july 2007. the move particularly interesting since the yield was under 1% at the start of last year and take a look at how borrowing costs have gone up alongside it. the average new car loan has gone from under 4% to over 6%. a 0-year mortgage just about 7%, corporate lending rates nearly 8% the interest rate often the average credit card now around 20%. the stocks don't seem to want to hear the message equity markets surging into the close with the dow jumping more than 340 point, the s&p and nasdaq both up 0.75% major indices all positive for the week so when will investors and consumers finally start to feel this pinch from persistently high rates this is something we've been

puzzling about for some time. >> yeah, i think consumers are already feeling it if you ask me to explain today's action, i mean i'm typically confused as you know i wake up confused in the morning but today has me scratching my head. chris waller, he is a voting member, by the way, recent data suggests consumer spending isn't slowing that much. the labor market continues to run unsustainably his words not mine and then inflation is not coming down in a meaningful way. rate hike also have to continue. that should have taken it down 50 s&p handles, instead it rallied 50 to answer your question, as the inversion gets closer to 1%, 2s, 10s, 5%, 4% effectively where we are, that's not particularly bullish and rates aren't going higher because the economy is getting any better so i don't know specifically today what the broader market is looking at >> yeah, me either but i'll tell you what i'm looking at, a chart of the fed funds rate going back 20 years and seeing that we're

going to be very soon at 5% and the last time we had fed funds at 5% it was back in '06, okay just think about that. you just think about how equities have acted since the financial crisis when we've had, you know, qe after qe and had zero interest rates forever and then think about 2018 and talked about it a lot the last time the fed really started to try to raise and normalize interest rates was when fed chair powell was the first year on the job, starting doing it quarter point that sort of thing what happened? the slightest gross scare we had in the fourth quarter of 2018, the stock market sold off 20% and almost a straight line and had to pivot here. to guy's point, all that we heard about inflation here and where unemployment is, it makes the fed's job so hard. there is no pivot coming if there's a growth scare because the worst case scenario slower growth but unusually high inflation with unusually low unemployment to to me i think this is the one thing for stocks

makes no sense to me you're talking about 30 handles in the s&p today i'm talking about an 18 handle on the p./e. for the s&p 500 given everything we know and all the uncertainty that lurks out there so to me that's what i'm most confused about. >> well, i agree with guy, confused i don't know why especially with those comments you would think but i don't know if the markets are saying we're looking through ultimately we don't know when but one day the fed will stop raising it and recession maybe isn't happening. that is maybe, you know, the ba ballast for this bullish move. we kind of misdiagnosed or misinterpret what some of these fed governors are saying then later when they say, no, really, this is what we're saying then we freak out. >> yeah, you know, we were talking to bill the other day of oak mark talking about his bull

case, jeff, for capital one financial. it gets at this. i was asking, how can you be bullish this sort of credit card lender when the type of person who has the capital and financial card is sort of on the lower end of the spectrum. because the labor market and lower end of the spectrum is tight and as long as people have jobs and pay off their car loans and pay off credit card loans and maybe that's the economy we're in right now as long as unemployment remains so low and tighter pockets things are good at least for right now so trade the market you have >> yeah, i just don't know how long that's going to last and i think that's part of the reason we were seeing inconsistency between the stock and bond market in the early part of this year talking about the level of rates and yield curve inversion. there are weird things going on with credit spreads, as well earnings expectations were continuing to come down. but then credit spreads were tightening as well that's part of this narrative where the consumer is in good shape. a lot of liquidity out there so credit seems to be in good shape

but all you're starting to see it roll over whether hyg or jnk and that died in february. now that's all below the 200-day and even credit was weaker than the stock market so have that dynamic going on and still they have spending power and wage gains solid and inflation off its peak so purchasing power is up and like i said all this liquidity and i think there's still $840 billion of excess savings out there but this lagged impact of rates is going to bite at some point. we've started to see the savings rate go higher that's not a good thing. you start to see that around economic slowdowns as the consumer starts to pull back and get concerned so i think there are cracks and you're right. things are okay for now. i'm just concerned where we end up going here and to dan's point, the p/e, i'm not going to

hang my hat on p/e expansion. >> i don't know who said that. you were quoting them but trade the market that you have it remains one of the dumbest market idioms i could ever hear because if the stock market is a discounting mechanism you could say it's discounting the fact we won't have this recession, fine, but throw in the rate situation here and throw in this other thing that our friend karen over here said, oh, yeah, i'll park some money in t bills at 5% of the there is a massive alternative, i'm not saying -- i'm just saying when you think about where we are right now on either side of a really important technical level in the s&p 500, we're kind of hanging on for dear life above the 200-day moving average given uncertainty about the economy and what we've heard about the consumer and just the last few week, all the stats you rattled off it doesn't feel like all of this rate hiking cycle and all the ills of the last few years

of the ridiculous accommodation we saw fiscal and monetary is going to be solved by one year lowering the s&p by 20%. >> the lag effect is also how it cycles through, right? a lot who have mortgages right now don't feel 7%. they still have 2% and in terms of companies that are borrowing, maybe their debt is not up for another year or two but when they have to go back to market, that 8% rate which is then going to be 10% or above, that is going to hurt. >> yeah, that is going to hurt but it's sort of interesting that the -- well, we are going to see this refinancing bubble but not bubble but we'll see that happen, but it hasn't happened yet i've been assured it's down but hasn't really cracked. right? it's widened a little and moves with rates up and down but also the credit risk element. that really has not moved. so i don't know what to make of it but stay tuned. >> can you interpret jnk being

pretty strong as a good sign >> you can definitely -- hyg bottomed out in september 70.40 and rallied to 79. today it's sub 74-ish but in my opinion it's almost just a matter of time before things start to break on the credit side of things and i've said for awhile the fed put us in the form of the s&p 500. the fed is in the form of either unemployment going to 5% or credit markets starting to freeze up which i'm not saying we're on the precipice but clearly closer than we've been in quite some time. >> sort of discussion, probably started a couple months ago the idea that the fed has a an understand lag way too much tightening and it'll just send us into a deep recession. it doesn't seem to be happening. it does seem to be happening that housing is slowing, right rates are higher and the market is coming around to that but

falling off a cliff -- >> still a lot of rate hikes to be passed through to the economy, right i mean -- >> i don't know. >> let's say it's six to nine months from the first one we've only felt the effects of the first couple >> is it six to nine months, though some things are right away, right and bank loans go -- corporate loans go right away. to debt that they've raised, that doesn't move right away that to your point but it's sort of interesting to me that things seem to be hanging on even despite this potential -- >> it isn't. as many things we want to point out that could go wrong a lot of things showing really good relative strength, whatever calm you want to put -- i understand that the one thing that bothers me a little bit, a week ago or two weeks ago, the vix was a teenager you know, right now it's just like 20-ish or something like that there's no fear in the market and just, again, as long as i've been doing this i've never seen fed funds -- i mean we've only seen it a couple of times, you know what i mean, get to these

sorts of levels and i've learned forever that interest rates are such an important part if you think about the s&p, that topped out at 4800, just below 4000 right now and we were just up from, what, 3550 at the lows in october i think the best thing for people who like to dollar cost average, like to buy things coming to them, wouldn't be a melt-up in the face of all this tightening, it would be another like getting back to what we saw for 2022 which is an orderly like series of lower highs and lower lows and then you have the opportunity to kind of work into some positions in the major indices and actually kind of come out of it however we come out of this rate hike. probably with an okay average on the s&p and then the nasdaq if you're taking a longer term view. >> for more, let's bring in david rosenberg, founder and president of rosenberg research. great to have you with us. i wanted to ask about a part of the conversation we were just having and that is what the hyg and jnk is telling us.

glass half full or glass half empty because the chart says maybe there's not too much going badly. when you think about this lag effect of rate hikes, when does that start hitting this part of the credit market because you would think it would start hitting now. >> well, i think that when you take a look at the leading indicators and we just saw the money supply numbers today and down a record 1.7% year over year, that's a leading indicator, i heard you guys talking about the yield curve, another ironclad leading indicator. there's the fed loan officer survey which has tightened dramatically in the last quarter across both types of bank credit these are all leading indicators it's a matter of timing. i think that right now you have a situation where the stock market and the credit markets seem to think they have more time that they can buy before the boom really gets lowered on the economy. no doubt the economy is not strong but it has been

precipitously -- whether it's money supply, the yield curve, all these other things we have in the crystal ball, it's telling me that the recession probably starts q2, no later than q3 and the time horizon for the markets whether credit or equities has shortened up so much it's only when they see the whites of the eyes and i think a lot will have to do as well with employment employment has to start contracting. once employment starts contracting and, of course, that's the other indicator, i think that's where you'll find the risk on trade, youknow, really coming under downward pressure reality is we're not there yet but given i would say three or four months we'll have a different economic picture on our hand. >> you think it's that long. i guess my question to you, is dan talked about the case here but all we've seen and jeff speaks it, why are we seeing multiple expansion in an environment where people should be paying less for earnings, not

more >> well, i would totally agree with you on that, but, you know, we're talking here just very short term divergences and the stock market can operate, you know, on its own dynamics whether it's fun flows or momentum chasing, i think 100%, there's no better correlation with the multiple than real interest rates and we've seen the real ten-year yield jump almost 50 basis points just over the past month and it's got a very tight link with the p/e multiple and when you map it out, the multiple should be much closer to 15, 16 than, say, 18. and then you got to slap on if you have a recession view which i do, i don't think we get out of this without a recession it's a matter of what the timing is i was talking about a recession throughout all of 2007, didn't come until december that year.

but it was still staring us in the face and, remember, that the stock market saw -- the stock market peaked ahead of the downturn i believe in rule number one on mean reversion from bob. the multiple will mean revert and will do so against the backdrop of the very aggressive fed which looked at the term premium and at the same time the real rate. it's interesting that not much of this move in nominal bond yields has been hitting expectations it's really been the real rate and that is not good news for the multiples so i would say give it time you know, we could be talking about something totally different four weeks from now in terms of where the multiple is should be 15, 16 not 18, and then, you know, we're talking about a recession but, you know, none of your viewers who are investors are buying gdp they're buying earnings and so where is q4 earnings right now the run rate is minus 4.7% last

time i looked. q1 is negative 5.8% so the earnings recession is actually already starting and i think that would be the question what is the stock market not seeing when you're seeing declining earnings, not slowing earnings and declining earnings estimates. so, maybe it's still about liquidity or it's about technical. today was nothing more than bouncing sharply after the 200-day moving average so times, look, nothing fundamental about it and maybe sometimes it's not just valuations but technical and i think today was more of a very powerful technical move with the 200-day moving average, you know, folding in what's going to happen a week from now does anybody know? that was the story today >> david, great to speak with you. thank you. >> thank you >> david rosenberg, rosenberg research david has a great twitter feed if you don't follow him, follow him. he tweeted this chart of the s&p 500 earnings yield and earnings on the six-month t bill.

they're practically the same so this environment, what would you rather right? >> well, if you're bullish you'd rather -- right, take a shot but for me -- it's the t bills, yeah yeah one thing he said made me think. reversion to the mean, doesn't go back to the mean but beyond the mean then comes back. >> yeah. most people don't do the math on that as they call it jeff what do you make of rosenberg's thoughts >> well, i agree with him and he mentioned earnings and i think that's sort of critically important and keep talking about the lagged impact of interest rates on the economy one of the things with the highest correlation we track is earnings and ism manufacturing pmi. if you look at the lag impact of earnings on manufacturing pmi, it's actually about 12 to 18 months and that correlation is tight going back decades and decades, so our point of view is that really that view or that move in earnings or excuse me, that move in rates is only just

starting to hit manufacturing pmi. that's going to continue lower that's going to drag earnings lower. i think that's the key to all of this right now. >> i say the one thing we haven't talked about is sentiment and, you know, again, october low, sentiment was universally bad among strategists, and now we have that huge rally, 18% off lows. when i listen to david and i've been listening to david for 20 years, he is one of the masters at picking apart what is often on wall street a universal bul bullish sort of stance right now it's the exact opposite all the other strategists have come in to his zone right now and that does make me a little nervous. it's hard to find a bullish strategist right now. >> i mean a lot have come in but if you really read them carefully, they've reduced their, you know, s&p outlook to 4000, 40, 50, whatever but the p/e is 18 because they haven't lowered earnings estimates so they are fairly bullish even within this wrapper of being more bearish moving toward that

bearish -- >> whether they realized it or not. again, why are you paying a historic market multiple in an environment where we haven't seen this literally in decade, right? number one, the other side of the equation is as david mentioned the earnings part is coming down as well so it all becomes -- i'm not suggesting we get to 14 or 15 but 16 multiple on 210, $220 to earnings is still significantly lower than we are now. >> coming up shares of nordstrom on the move after the company's latest results we have the details from that quarter next. and the salesforce is strong with this one. options traders piling in afterwards where they see it next when "fast money" returns

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welcome back we've got an earnings alert on nordstrom getting weak revenue guidance for the year. the conference call under way and melissa is here with the very latest. >> like you said nordstrom beat on quarterly earnings expectations and roughly in line with revenue expectations but some big pieces of news and potential concerns in its holiday report really there are three big takeaways, it reported declining

sales for both of its banners in the holiday quarter but steeper declines where net sales dropped 8.1% in the fourth quarter and announced it's pulling out of canada where it has 13 stores total and already shot down e-commerce sales as of thursday and said it didn't see a path to profitability there and it gave a weak fiscal year outlook of 4% to 6% drop in revenue versus a year ago with some coming from the canada business it's shutting down, back to you >> melissa, just quickly, i'm curious what your thoughts are on the differences between nordstrom rack and how it's seen declining sales and tjx which did pretty well. >> it's jarring because what we heard from tjx it had a ton of great quality inventory across all price ranges and that was helping it as consumers look for value. and nordstrom rack does compete. it plays in that same area so it is concerning and something i'd like to dig into more about what's going on here why are they not having the same success that tjx is having

>> all right, melissa, thank you. lew melissa repco. >> take your pick. >> well, best buy, one thing i thought was interesting in the call, the ceo was saying she thinks we'll see a bottom this year or soon that was interesting to me that stock hung in there pretty well looks like a decent size miss that hung in there well. macy's was pretty good i was surprised it was up 10%. the guidance was nice, i guess if you were fearing something he maybe post the kohl's report, maybe macy's was down more than it should have been on the heels of that but i thought it was decent look at the metrics of macy's. unbelievably cheap and as a value, i keep circling around it and not owning it but -- >> what is preventing you? >> i guess it's my fundamental concern about the future of the department store concept. >> right >> that would be it. >> in the meantime, these stocks

can trade to the upside. the good news about nordstrom inventories are down 15.2% year over year so getting their house in order and operating margins hung in at 4.5%. gross margins declined that's okay. it's the guide that's a disaster talking about 5% decline of revenue year over year that's not good. it's a tough landscape it's been in an eight-year downtrend and we've seen bounces like this before and i would say at least a dozen times if not more within a couple of days they're selling typeses. >> jeff, why are you in retail >> with a name like nordstrom's, i think it's cheap for a reason so i would caution people in terms of, you know, looking for value here to me the chart just looks awful. i think it's a downtrend that really couldn't be clearer i think there's a chance you test that low around $15, if not lower, at some point obviously i'm concerned about the consumer that's part of it. as karen said i think the department store thing is also part of that, one thing i thought was interesting, piper

puts out a weekly foot traffic measure where they look at consumer foot traffic in department stores and other places you saw a spike in january there so i thought that kind of fueled the soft landing narrative, the narrative that the economy was okay, the consumer is okay they just put out that number for february, it's back down to where it was before so i think maybe that was very short-lived. we mentioned tjx i would rather be in ray name like that. those are places where people look in that direction when they're looking to trade down versus nordstrom rack, for example. >> did you see would you rather -- >> his own acronym did you catch that five below in the -- >> no. >> sneaky guy. think he's straight-laced. no, sneaky there's a lot more "fast money." here's what's coming up next >> announcer: salesforce awakens. the software superstar wowing wall street with a big earnings beat and the action is giving options traders a new hope plus, a tesla take two

shares driving lower after a less than wowing investor day and tesla wasn't the only stock taking a hit the details ahead. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. we're back right after this. small business owner... ...i've learned that trying to be the “cool” boss... ...is a lot harder when you're actually the “stressed” boss. inner voice (furniture maker): i know everything about my new furniture business. well, everything except... ...the whole “business” part. not anymore. with quickbooks, you can confidently manage your business. new business? no problem. yeah. success starts with intuit quickbooks.

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i'm still gonna eat it. me too. tip please. dell technologies makes data driven insights possible. cdw makes it powerful. welcome back salesforce with the best day since 2020 that resulted in upgrades and praise from elliott management which said they're taking steps consistent with their recommendations and said they've been in talks and it's in part because of the talks option traders are optimistic. mike khouw here with the action. >> so crm traded 6 1/2 types its

average daily options volume the fourth busiest single stock option and one of the trades i saw that caught my eye was the may 195/220 call spread and somebody paid $7 for 1780 of those risking 1.25 million that could be worth 4.5 million if the stock rises 17.5% or more by may expiration that 220 target they set is significant for another reason that happens to correspond with upgraded price targets of 220 and one-year high we saw a year ago in march of 2022 >> jeff mills, do you own this one? >> yeah, we've own i had it for about a year and bought it in march of 2022 and april and have a cost basis around 200 so right back to break even and we held it the entire time and i think we'll continue to hold it. for us some of the highlights from the call really was the focus on margins, focus on productivity and shareholder

return when we bought the stock part of our thesis was this kind of high marketing and sales spend. we thought that would eventually be a profitability level for them and i think that's finally starting to show up seeing growth hold up pretty well an now these activists are in the stock pushing for that change a little more quickly. i think you see that in some of the margin forecasts for this year so for us the tone of the call is totally different. still customer attrition is very low so we're comfortable with this position here and we like the direction that the company is headed relative to just profitability, spending discipline, things of that nature >> within the space the valuation of salesforce which is doing all of these things and still progressing on these things seems a lot more rational compared to, say, a snowflake. which on every single metric is a multiple, you know, more expensive than a crm, right? i mean -- >> yeah, and two different businesses and slootman was just on "overtime" and interesting interview. he's universally loved

here's a stock that is interesting, down 15% on that disappointing guide and went from consensus guidance of revenue from 47% to maybe a low 40s. that's pretty astounding but off a low base so supposed to go from 2 billion to 2.8, maybe a little below that and trades 15 times so that company has to grow into that valuation where i think it's really different on the flip side with the salesforce is like everyone is focused on cost. the companies roll up. no matter what quarter they print it seems like forever, he goes on kramer's show afterwards and takes the questions and does it and a great operator but i wouldn't chase the stock here. it was interesting it gapped right up to 194 and gave 4% or so back. there's a big gap there and likely gets filled in my -- >> i'm sorry, mel. >> oh. >> dan's right only took five activists to come in and get them to get their act

together that's the legit point operating margins were expected 22%. they came in at 29%. question i would have if i was so inclined what were you doing all along? why did it take these people to sort of light a fire with that said, dan's right about the levels the next level is probably 215-ish what we broke down in march of 2022. >> i was curious if any would be selling soon and look for the filings after a 12% -- >> yeah. >> exactly >> that's interesting. i mean, they seem to be doing the right things, you're right, though, guy, to your point, what were you doing where does that leave matthew mcconaughey? >> he's still on -- >> maybe he already -- >> the thing is, think about what are we doing? for the last five years it's been -- >> free money. >> no one gave a crap, you know what i mean. that's the sort of rationalization that's coming back into the public and private markets which is good for

investors, get leaner. >> for more options action tune in to the full show tomorrow 5:30 eastern time. coming up shares of tesla feeling the hangover from yesterday's investor day the details or lack thereafter sent the stock lower silvergate, can it survive it doesn't know. we have much more. >> announcer: get your trades to go with the "fast moy"ne podcast. catch us any time anywhere follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this. good luck. "options action" is responded by sink or swim sponsored by td ameritrade how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade.

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing near their highs with the dow up more than 340 to break a four-week losing streak and s&p and nasdaq snapping two-day losing streaks climbing 0.75% and shares of silver gate plummeting 60% after delaying its annual report. the crypto bank saying it needs more time for its accounting firm to complete the audit of its latest quarter and currently analyzing certain regulatory and other inquiries and investigations this is a terrible story last night when the news crossed.

it was still terrible during the day, signature bank, by the way, we saw under pressure in sympathy >> right it is a terrible story you got to -- you know, the language is, i mean they went over it with a fine tooth comb, the going concern issue is enormous and when you put that on a bank, right, this is not when you're talking in the car on the way home and dan is like this is what you talk about. well, if you go to bed, bath & beyond and they'll file for bankruptcy you can still buy your toasters or towels. if you are a customer of a bank that is in a situation like this, you're irresponsible if you don't -- >> pull your money out. >> yeah, i feel bad, this is an institution for awhile and i don't know how a bank survives this and so i mean it's down by half that doesn't seem like a crazy amount >> pulling back a little layer of the onion, the show gets done

at 6:00, we get in the car and mel is tearing into me i sit down and think we're having a fun conversation. how are the kids you got right into silvergate like it was an extension of the "c" block. the show is over >> this is what they do. >> you don't have to ride in our car again. >> sounds line i'm not invited back. >> maybe you aren't. to tesla sinking after last night's investor day, musk now providing much deal on the evmaker's next generation car and said it would no longer use rare earth metals in its motor sending shares of mt materials down by 11% for more on this let's get to phil lebeau. a lot of interesting visions presented yesterday but no time lines attached to anything >> grand visions melissa, this is what happens when you hold an investor day and give very few details with benchmarks in terms of we've planned to hit this on this date at some point in the future. what they gave everybody was how they plan to disrupt the

automotive industry over the next 5, 10, 15 years in the grand vision sense they gave a lot of details about what they hope to do. what they plan to do comes down to really three things, first of all, lower costs, they're going to drive them down dramatically with the next generation car, faster production, building vehicles much quicker off the assembly lines and they plan to deliver more vehicles. tesla is already number one worldwide in terms of ev sales not just here in the united states but worldwide they have 17% of the market share ahead of byd which is primarily just sold in china and asia and just starting in europe then you have volkswagen general motor, a big chunk are lower cost evs they're number four, not ford coming in at 7%. then there's the mexico giga factory. an announcement last night but no details when is it going to be built and up and running they do plan on building the next generation vehicle there and, again, hope to bring the cost of those down by 50%.

in terms of demand elon musk says he sees plenty of demand in the future >> the desire for people to own a tesla is extremely high. the limiting factor is their ability to pay for a tesla, not do they want a tesla it's easy for people in this room to lose sight of that >> so what's the next vehicle that people will want from tesla? elon musk believes it's a cybertruck it goes into production later this year. we'll see a few deliveries maybe before the end of the year but more likely early next year and ramp up production bottom line is this, melissa, everybody that you read these analyst notes everybody says the same thing, great grand vision we agree with everything they plan to do but there are no benchmarks here. there was nothing where they said we plan to hit x number of vehicles by 2025, 2027, 2030 or this is what the costs will do they gave a big broad hitting 20 million annual deliveries but

they didn't put a date on it you know, so these are the kind of things that i think that the public, the investors, the retail investors, i think that's what they were hoping for. >> also hoping for a cheaper car and we only got sort of a, you know, a tease for, you know, when we're ready to do that we'll probably have some sort of product event time in the future at some time not disclosed right now. >> and, melissa, most believe that you're not going to see that vehicle before the end of '25 at the earliest if you haven't even announced it yet, a year and a half would be ridiculously fast to get it towards the beginning of '25 you're looking probably l late '25, '26 at the earliest. >> phil, thanks. phil lebeau. >> you bet. >> i thought it was interesting at this particular investor day presentation was that elon musk made it a point to be seated next to more than a dozen executives that we probably have never seen before, many of them or heard of before to get to the point that i may be running

twitter, i may be running spacex but we've got a deep bench here. this is a show to address a lot of investor concern. >> which is a good thing and, again, just for clarification, i thought you had to sell tesla into earnings a month and a half or so ago, the stock was 155 that was incorrect but it did trade the levels subsequently we thought it could go to, 220, 225 which line up with the moving averages now what well, wasn't a particularly good day obviously. traded a lot of volume did not bounce with the broader mark and, oh, by the way, they said they'll need an additional $150 billion of capital at some point. that wreaks of secondary to me i'm just throwing it out there. >> factories that are way down the line made a point about this is so off in the future and no time frame so $150 billion at some later point in time doesn't scream secondary. >> not yet but it's out there. where is the level i think 165 to me is the level if you were looking to get long, that's where you get long. looking to reload that's where you reload. >> for clarification, after

earnings started shorting it when it was 165 on that gap and painful position and talked about it a little bit and worked out of it and actual wly have a gain but i think it's going lower. i look at google trends, he talks about the desire to own, you know, teslas you know what, tesla's cybertruck, go to google trend, it's very near 52-week lows as far as interest in that sort of thing. i don't really buy that and i think the lack of kind of clarity about what the road map is for some of the products the here and now and when you think about tagging an extra $125 billion in expenses over whatever that time period to build out to get to that 20 million-car vision, let's be clear, right now the largest carmaker on the planet sells less than half of that a year, okay, so that is a really ambitious thing with nothing tied to it i said last night gross margins this year, a margin story for the last couple of year, okay, they're expected to go from 25 to 22% this year on flat to

probably down earnings on 25% sales growth so they're going to be spending a lot. if there is a recession, we spend a lot of time talking about it this company will have a hard time. >> coming up, apple shares managing a gain in today's session but still holding below a key technical level. one of our traders is watching it now broadcom is out with earnings and we'll dive in next don't miss taking stock with eamon javers right here on cnbc at the top of the hour stay tuned lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you

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welt committee back. we've got an earnings alert on broadcom the conference call under way and kristina partsinevelos is here k. part. >> it remains resilient with double digit growth with lead times around 50 weeks. cisco reiterating the same trend in their earnings report broadcom makes chips used in data center for networking as well as ai chips the ceo said he expects exponential demand from hyper scalers and forecast and the ether net switch and it scales up for ai. that could grow from $200

million which is what it is now to over 800 million in 2023. general ai is barely starting to kick off and it really just seeing a jump in excitement and demand just within the last 90 days lastly broadcom's acquisition is still up in the air giving antitrust concerns the ceo said he revbelieves the review time will be longer but expects it to close in 2023. >> kristina partsinevelos. guy? >> 61% operating margins is a lot of people would like to have half that number 13 1/2 next year's numbers not expensive on a price multiple. maybe you have 9% eps growth, single digit revenue growth. comes down to this, it's had trouble above 600, a number of times over the last couple of years, does it power through are we stalled here again? i happen to think unfortunately

we probably get up to 615, 620 i think it will happen one more time. >> i always have trouble with this ticker. >> avgo. it takes me time to think about it jeff mills, where do you stand on avgo? >> yes, so guy sort of read my mind it's actually not historically cheap even at 14 times if you look at the historical p/e multiple but what the market is seeing and what i'm seeing is what guy said nice sales growth last year and nice earnings growth particularly high free cash flow margins, things that are being rewarded in the market and this is not the company it was when it historically traded at 12 or 13 times forward earnings and have evolved with a number of successful acquisitions, vmware next on the table. could be a binary catalyst one way or the other regarding whether it gets closed or not but regardless, i think that the stock is in a very solid position, you have a 3% dividend yield. i agree with guy, i'd like to

see it press above 600 and stay there but i think you could hold the stock here. >> coming up, ouch apple shares hanging out below a key technical support level. can it find its footing again. that trade and more ahead. much more "fast money" in two. 'e and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?!

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of apple nunning higher trading below its 200-day moving average for a second consecutive day. the stock is still up nearly 13% for the year jeff, you're looking at this >> yeah, you know, we have talked about apple as being this bear market barometer. it hasn't traded below a 20 times p/e post pandemic at all it moved down at certain points in time but really hasn't given it up in terms of valuation at all. when i look at this chart it's still very much the same it continues to make lower highses, as we said below the 200-day moving average and still think with the consumer kind of heading toward more of a slowdown at least in my opinion, at 23 1/2 times right now i'm looking at that 130 to 140 range in the near term i think you get at least there and then there's potential downside i think in addition to that yes, it's had a nice move this

year but actually trailed the s&p 500 by about 6% since the october lows so even relative weakness overall during this recent move higher in the market >> i'm actually long apple not a huge position but so, jeff, let me push back a little bit. as the mix changes to this, you know, more services which is a different income stream, do you think that that puts a, you know, 20 plus floor under the stock, sorry, p/e multiple >> there's no doubt about it if you look back over the ten years, let's just say, the average multiple is no longer relevant just because of that product mix shift. i think you're seeing that with a number of different companies. as you see additional pressure on that e it's probably not going to be able to hold, say, a 20 plus multiple given the conversation we had relative to rates earlier in the show so, you know, i don't think the stock has to necessarily crash i wonder if you'll get outperformance from a name like this given where it's currently

trading. >> i think carter had mentioned that for like a couple of years, relative to the s&p, it really was not performing well and think about, i see, karen, you make the perfect point announced a 2 billion ios installed base if more of those hardware devices are going to be using more services, that's great for the multiple longer term it goes back to what my view is, apple is the market in my opinion, it's a $2.5 trillion market company love to see a little fear in it. back in october there was definitely a little fear that was a good time to buy. it rallied 25%, right now given the uncertainty we he out avab china and the consumer, about valuations i'd say probably not great right here. >> up next, final trade. ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪ ♪♪ ♪seems impossible to face♪ ♪a lovely day (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day) (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day)♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business.

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accenture, let there be change. time for the final trade around the horn. general mills. >> jay, i think you continue to sell dhi here in this weakness i'm looking at somewhere around $80, about 11% below where we are right now. >> chairwoman. >> the tesla thing, they're talking about this giant mexico plant, it will reinforce it for me >> with yields up 4%, i did not love that today and didn't

participate. >> hosting a huge georgetown event and quickly, mel, this score at madison square garden. >> 100%. >> incredible acumen mcdonald's trading well. >> thank you all for watching "fast money" and bearing with us. with eamon javers starts right now. good evening, everyone and welcome to this cnbc special, "taking stock. i'm eamon javers jim is off tonight mortgage rates topping 7% today. rates haven't been consistently above 7 for a long time. a senior fed official said he's firmly in favor of sticking with quarter-point rate hikes stocks started the day slowly but took off following those comments the dow climbing more than 330 points, on pace to break a four-week losing streak. the s&p and nasdaq snapping two-da