day. >> in 20 seconds. >> i think aaron rodgers will end up there, in my honest pin. >> getting the thumbs up from brian over here. >> he's like, yes. >> a pleasure, sir thank you. best of luck. that does it for us on friday. >> "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, thanks so much. i'm scott wapner this make-or-break hour is up. the nice bounce around this time yesterday. as you can see, it's continuing into the final stretch rates importantly, as you can see at the bottom, backing off a bit, too taking a bit of breather apple and meta are as well tech a pretty good day that brings us to our talk of the tape the big week ahead, the jobs report looming large, another

critical read on the economy and very much the state of inflation, all this as some in the fed are wondering whether the rate hikes are working for slow things down jeremy siegel will be with us momentarily to kick all of that around first our new cnbc contributor malcolmeridge, along with brynn. malcolm, congratulations, welcome to the familiar. good to have you the markets felt dicey lately. we had this nice pickup yesterday, a continuation today. how do you feel? >> yeah, i'm actually a bit on edge right now, watching where the markets have gotten to you ifs look how strong we are in january and in february, the last three weeks, the s&p ended in negative territory. i'm a little loathe to get start

feels too good or too bad until we start to hear what the fed has to say, and hopefully next week they'll shed some light going into the fomc meeting at the end of the month >> bryn, how about this? jeer going to break a three-week losing streak for the s&p. what do you think? >> we bounced off the 200-day just like clockwork. i think that said us up for technically to bounce higher probably going into next week, but scott, we remain dependent on this economic data which is frustrating. when you're looking to try to analyze individual companies, the overriding theme is the inflation data is still front and center

i think there's a ceiling on stocks, you can't have thed for behind the inflation and i still think it's incorrect. i know so you continue to have, you know, an all-time high but the market just doesn't care you want to respect that, but understand that thing could change quickly, and we'll see what the fed comes out on the 20th and 21st i think now is a

good time you feel strongly about that particular name, as we had, the s&p has been on your side the trend was our friend if there was an individual name if you look at just the short-term treasury, you could just hide out in treasuries for the next couple weeks until we get some direction on where the fed is going to go if i can push the point a little further, we're out there in trouble right now with the fact we don't have earnings anymore for cloud cover. so the next few weeks will drive hard in one direction or another, because it's the ohm things the markets have to focus on. >> we have to -- let's bring in professor siegle now prophets -- professor emeritus,

good to see you. >> good to see you, scott. >> we have an important moment in the a week from today that i know you're cleanly looking towards, the jobs report the last one seemed to have upset the story a bit. what do you think? >> the initial jobless claims have been so strong. this has really shifted the story. if we get anything like january, believe it or not, 50 basis points would be on the table for that march meeting when i look at fed funds futures, i see them pricing in right now four 25 base points, or four fed hikes. with a strong front that we have

seen, the picture has changed. >> well, at the same time the interest rate goes up, which is not good for stocks, the economy looks so much stronger the number of ceos that see a recession coming have been more than cut in half remember, at the end of last year, we had a record number of forecasters forecasting a recession. never before a recession had we had so many. that is because of the strength of the job market, strength of the first quarter. i'm not saying the second half of the year wouldn't be weaker, but a lot of people are saying, you know what? that 220 earnings, that actually might come in. i actually think we're going to see a big slowdown of the rate of reduction, and i think a lot of corporations, by the way, are positioning their guidance very cautiously, because they are

still worried there might be a big downturn i think we may get a lot of beats in the second half of the year rather than shortfalls as we saw do you think we have sandbagging going on there's a whole host of issues that would lead you to believe the earnings trend will continue to come down i think we're at $222 officially now, according to estimates. there's no reason to think that they're going to start reaccelerating from here why would they >> you know, for the whole year, the fed predicted a half a percent gdp growth it looks like the first quarter will be 2%-plus. remember, last year was the whole year was less than 1% so if we don't get that decline in

employment or 2395%, i think those earnings figures at 220 might be even conservative that's why the stock market has held up yesterday and today, despite the ten-year going above 4% it's that earnings -- they may not be anywhere as bad as we feared so you have that struggle between what we call the numerator and the enominator i think both have risen over the last two, three weeks. did you read jason furming in "wall street journal" >> yes i figured you did. he makes the argued just hit it hard now like do 50, go to 6% you've got to go at this thing really hard right now -- >> first of all, i think he's

got it wrong he implies it would be much less progress against inflation than in fact we have. if you look at the on the ground price indexes, commodity indexes are bumping along the bottom case-shiller we saw six consecutive declines residential prices are stable or going down shipping prices have collapsed some of the them are back to the level of pre-pandemic levels i think he's overstating the pessimism on inflation i think we've made a lot more progress on inflation. the problem is, i thought the job market would be certainly weakening by now, i think almost ev everyone did, and it isn't i do not think we need to get to six -- there is an argument, an argument that has been made by

some of the fed people, is, listen, we want to get to the low 5s we're at 4.58 right now. let's do it quicker rather than later, but furmen is actually say we need to get to six. jim bullard says i would rather get think sooner. >> i feel like you want your cake and eat it too, professor you say admittedly i was wrong on how strong the labor market has remained, but the fed doesn't need to do as much anymore. >> don't forget -- >> let's put it this way i thought they shouldn't be going as high as they did. i don't think they need to go to six. i think maybe the upper 4s or very low 5s, which they maintain however, right now the fed funds market says they are going to be above, between 5.5, and 5.75

i have bumped -- yes, i looked at the facts and, you know -- i look at the facts all the time, and i have bumped up my curve, but i'm not bumping it up to six. i'm not bumping it up as high as jason and i think we have made a lot more progress toward the inflation front. >> christopher waller is even suggesting, you know, gee, is this really working? the efficacy of the rate hikes we have already done, is it really working was the hot data just a blip do we need to do more, even higher, even longer than some people suggest >> well, now, remember, the hot -- the cpi data, and we've talked about this is so backwards-looking. we talked about the problem with rentals and home prices -- by

the way, the experts have looked at the seasonal adjustments, that that's what's bumped up the year-over year, and they said by the end of the year that will put downward pressure in, so the data is nowhere near as bad as the backward-looking indicators. i pointed out the on the ground indicators which have markets every day, have not shown they're going up again in fact they're scraping against the bottom and home prices are still falling. take a look, scott, you know mortgage rates are back above seven. >> yeah, they are. >> when they went down to six, a bit of stability let's hear what people are saying about march with rates above seven again, you'll see softness in that area also so, i think -- to say we haven't made a lot of progress on the price front is wrong

to say we haven't made a lot of progress on loosening up the labor market, that is correct. what would you rather have i would rather have lower inflation and a good economy, a good labor market than i would have a falling labor market and no progress against inflation. i definitely don't think that's what we're seeing. >> are you still confident enough to suggest we're in the early stages of a new bull market >> i predicted 10% to 15% on the s&p this year. i said it might surprise people for it to come in the first half i'm still maintaining that that is possible, even with a higher half of interest rates, because that would be associated with a higher path of gdp, and my feeling a higher path of profits than certainly what we feared at

the beginning of the year or late last year. >> all right let me bring in the panel who is with is. >> bryn and malcolm. bryn, the professor left us a very provocative thought what do you say? >> apple is already up 15% for the year the nasdaq up 12%, s&p is up 5%. do the s&p go up another 5% by the end of the year? sure, but i don't see it possible to be in the beginning of a new bull market the fed is still raising rates you have an inverted yield curve. multiples are high i get the numerator/denominator equation, but multiples are high, and i think we have a ceiling right now on equity prices, because the fed doesn't know the terminal value.

we don't know the terminal value. i think it's important, when you talk about the real economy, you know what's important? money is changes hands scots of capital is very sensitive with small-cap stocks. it's very sensitive with real estate in the real estate market you're not seeing the velocity of that happening. so i'm still into the camp that we have a big lag, and the fed will end up over-tightening, because this lag is taking longer, then all of a sudden this cost of capital cannot be ignored. i think people are hiding on the in the apple, in the companies where cost of capital is not relevant, but i think that ceiling is there and we're not in the beginnings of a new bull market at this point. >> professor, you think the market is fairly priced here >> okay. well, i just did a study over the last 60 years.

if you take times when the long-term interest rates, the ten-year bond is under 6 pick and roll, as pessimistic as you become -- in the last 60 years it's been 1 times. you know, when the ten-year long bond was 12, 13, 14%, we had 8, 9 p/es, you have an 18 p/e you quoted we're probably at 17 1/2 p/e, so i don't think the market is expensive at the present time in fact, i think the long-term trend of pes is upward i think fair market value for p/e is around 20 so i do not -- i'm not in the camp that thinking that it's

overvalued certainly if he hit the 220 that is projected for this year on s&p earnings >> malcolm, what do you think? >> yeah, i'm in the camp with the professor that, i do think it's possible we're seeing the signs of a new bull market, but i think where he may have lost me is in the sense that going to 6% and the fed deciding to get even more hawkish from here, and using rates from the only tool they have left to try to bring down inflation even further and faster, because they're not satisfied with what they're seeing, i think that would have an intended impact and the labor market has been the only saving grace we've had here keeping the markets in positive territory. so i think if the fed decides to go 6%-plus, the professor loses me a bit, because i think that takes the wind out of the sails. >> professor, he was with you,

but against you. can you answer to that >> i don't think fed is going to 6% the market is looking for four more hikes, so that 5.5 to 5.75. by the way, all we need is a weaker february number i mean january number was unbelievable, but a weaker number and an increase in initial claims, i think the whole conversation at the fed -- that's what they're looking for. just don't be as drum tight on that labor market. they see that relief, i think they see what's going to be happening to the cpi we already have powell acknowledging that the housing sector is a lag sector by the middle of the year, seasonal adjustments will add downward pressure. by the way, what's the rush to get it down to 3% right away is it worth an extra 1%, 2%

unemployment it will affect both of those i think that's not a good trade-off. it's not just supposed to look at one so, therefore, when we see that lower growth in that labor market, the conversation will change back to a quarter, maybe only two and three increases up to the low 5s, and then if the labor market gets weaker, i still think there's a possibility of a drop by the end of the year. >> professor, i'm going to leave you with a question that elizabeth warren raises. i want your input. you've been critical as much as anybody else of the job the fed has done on the front end of that, really missing the transitory issue, to begin with, and what they have done to try to make up their mistake

senator warren rights, if the fed keeps pushing these -- this could tip this whole economy off an economic cliff, says the senator. she wants the new nice chair to be a counter to chair powell, nots an enabler. >> i never thought i would ever agree with anything that elizabeth warren would say, but i do think that the fed is just maniacal about inflation, and -- now, the labor market hasn't loosened yes, sir, but i don't think two, three, points higher is all worth to get inflation down six, nine months earlier. i think you do a trade-off i think the fed did swing from not paying attention at all, to swing too much on the other side like inflation is the only issue. inflation and wages, by the way,

unemployment could be discounted that's not in the fed mandate. >> professor, we leave it there. you have a knack for leaving us with very good sound bites you have done it again thank you for your time. we'll see you soon. >> thank you, scott. bryn, we'll see you in a bit and malcolm, as well the twitter question of the day -- can you trust the ruly in tech meta is a huge winner. answer on twitter. we'll have the results later on in the hour. we're just getting started braising for a big rally tom lee is back. he's forecasting a strong bounce for stocks, maybe over the next two months we're live from the new york stock exchange "closing bell" is right back

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stocks continuing to rally, rates pulling back a bit that is helping things as they ease off their recent highs. our next guest says equities will continue to climb higher, rallying strong perhaps over the next eight weeks tom lee, welcome back. >> thanks, scott. >> an eight-week rally what gets us there >> first of all, i think this

was an important week. the market was testing key levels some of some hot data, but we held the 200-day i think we're entering a strong seasonal period. i think it's goods to coincide with the fed dampening the hawkish thoughts, and we get inflation data next week that i think will take people off the edge, and i think that combination, plus the market at 14.8 times ex-fang >> are you unnerved at all by the move we have seen in rates i mean, over the last day they have taken a breather.

yeah, rates are a big deal the rates market affects how we want to value equities, so seeing the ten-year at 4% is pretty alarming. the bond market is quite market. it seems like it's been overly reactive, so i think next week it will be interests to see how it reacts to powell's tim on the 8th, to the jobs report, but we're expecting a lot of this hard data and soft data to -- >> you need bond yields to fall to get to your 42,50 by the end of april, correct? >> let's say it's over 250,000 jobs, then it makes it harder for equities to rally.

>> so all the marbles come down, just like professor siegle was saying, everything comes down to next friday's job report >> yeah, but we do have to be mindful. we had over 500,000 for january. so something -- even in the 250, which is above consensus would be considered a significant improvement. not that i want the economy to lose jobs, but growing faster than the employment force is growing is bad news. >> what do i do with the fact that you think about where earnings are, expectation estimates are coming down. so how can we have really any kind of sustained move higher in stocks >> well, i think the two groups to watch are industrials and technology, but they are very sensitive to finance conditions. on the tech side, i think many know this, tech earnings

estimates have been flattening 7 out of the 13 groups have seen estimates increase so the industry is actually seeing stable to possibly rising earnings forecast to this year. >> but overall, as i was saying with rho fessor siegle, we're at $222 from a high water mark of 250. there's no indication that then will just stop we're still waiting for lag effects of the fed tightening to take hold, aren't we >> we are. but you're talking about 2023 earnings, and the market will key off 2024 all the things we're seeing eye specially regarding inflation aren't taking amp from 2024 as much, unless the dollar is strengthening. >> so you're telling me the market is going to be anticipatory enough to look towards next year and ignore

where earnings are now you think we're close to troughing? you have to be close to troughs if the market has the ability to look to the other side. >> 2022 is a great example earnings were up, the market was down, because 2022 earnings were down so the path in the market will what rates do, what volatility does, but it's 2024 eps, which hasn't been hit as hard as 2023. >> and you're still a believer in the faang trade apple got back over -- and meta rallying as well you think that's where the money will go? >> one, if you look at it from agency itle level, they have broken the 21 down trends, and like at meta earnings estimates have been going up so i think you have a fundamental and technical level.

>> thank you, tom. up next, more big stock moss into the close, and later we're weighing the bounce in tesla it's trying to bounce back after s investor day does it have more room to run? we'll debate that. "closing bell" is right back you hungry? yeah, i know a place. it's the city that never sleeps. but hey, if you need a last-minute spot, i got you covered.

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about that minutes to go to the closing bell kristina partsinevelos has a look at the key stocks to watch. kristina the maker of skippy's and span, hormel, is having a tough week down almost 10%. the ceo is blaming persistent inflation and supply chain inefficiencies and weak snack nut sales. the food processor is actually having its worst week since 2016 shares are down about 2.7 right now. you would think the top and bottom-line beat would help zscaler, but manager pointing

out that customers are paying closer attention to budgets and they saw a lower contribution of revenue from new customers the stock down over 10% just today alone. scott? >> kristina, thank you coming up, our next guest is flags a major opportunity that we haven't seen in a decade. she makes that case next "closing bell" will be right back i'm mark and i live in vero beach, florida. my wife and i have three children. ruthann and i like to hike. we eat healthy. we exercise. i noticed i wasn't as sharp as i used to be.

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treasury yields falling today with the ten-year dipping back below 4%. my next guest says higher rates could provide an opportunity in fixed income that hasn't been seen in over a decade. nice to see you, tina. welcome back. >> good to see you again, scott. >> you run a multiasset firm, but you truly think bonds are the best place to be >> well, look, we're at a terrific entry point bond yields have obviously come down since the beginning of the year, but they started the year at the highest level since the broad market since late 2007 given that most of the rate

increases are behind us, we think that market conditions are in a much healthier play, where income can actually contribute over the course of the year. we also think this would lead to a great sort of reset of noncorporate funds assets allocations, whose bond allocations are at historic lows, because they were the primary funders of their alternative portfolios now, you know, we recognize that rising rates, rising inflation isn't really the best time for bond prices. so we would keep duration tyke at benchmark levels, and wait to see a more significant deterioration in the labor market to increase duration.

>> you think that will happen? there's a notion the fed will be even higher, stay even longer than most people expect. are you one of them? >> that's why i wouldn't go out there on the duration curve. in fact, the benchmark we're short of >> you have an interesting quote that i want you to expand on, if you would -- institutional investors need to recognize we're undergoing a fundamental shift that would require them to reevaluate current investing assumptions into 2023 and beyond tell me what you mean bythat >> over the last 30 years, the market has been on the assumption that, you know, we have inflation under control

with the 30 years of rate that drop and underlying that are some conditions that have reversed. the biggest one is the cost of labor. the demographics of low labor have changed the baby boomers are leaving the workforce, and they tended to, a, they were paid less than subsequent generations, and they were less willing to leave jobs to increase their income then in the post-gfc period, you have an onslaught of park-time workers that dampened wage pressures. then you had deglobalization those three -- the reversal of those three factors i think will make unique labor costs a lot

more sticky than they have been in prior cycles, which is why i think the fed will have a challenge getting back to its 2% target without causing a lot of dislocation in the labor market. >> tina, before i let you go, it's women's heritage month. i had sally krauczech sitting next to me, who has done it all. we have seen the face of wall street change over the years you notice have a woman running one of the major banks on wall street i asked sally what she thought about the glass ceiling and whether it's been shattered. she emphatically said no i wanted your input on that question as well. >> i would agree can sally let me point to two things one is the hollowing out of the

pipeline for c-suite positions torrid to the november lean-in report, for every woman who gets promoted who leave because they're burned out, having it all could be a you've 34i678 for doing it all at home, and they feel undervalued and under-compensated. second thing, in the vc business, we continue to see merit crazy, where successful investors select facsimiles of their our, or one quipped that i cook -- and this -- that a woman and people of color. my story challenges the fallacy

of this merit ocra -- it exposes the forgotten return possibles of the merit ocracy. >> good to have you today. i appreciate your insight, and certainly your expertise on the markets. we'll sigh you soon. tina byles williams. our twitter question, we'll bring you the results after this break.

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let's get the results of our twitter question we asked, with the nasdaq up 2%, can you trust the rally in tech? the majority of you said, no, you cannot, 68.5%. up next, shares of tesla up 60% so far for the year. our next guest says now is not the time to chase it we'll explain when you could of you should get in coming up. that and more, when you take you inside the market zone

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we are now in the "closing bell: overtime". bryn talkington is back on whether tell la can continue its run. malcolm etheridge here, too on crowdstrike. mike, i begin with you first professor siegle not backing down from his 10% to is a% call this year. >> i think it's fair for different reason this idea that may make inflation stickier, has been in the market, and we've had a few weeks of grinding decline in a day and a half, so in

equilibrium between the kneeled effects. the market is up the last. what he said about what it might mean for the fed listen >> the initial jobless claims have been so strong that this has really shifted the story, if we get anything like january, 50 basis points would be on the table. >> that would be a bit of a game changer. >> the market has already put it on the table yes, another -- 200,000 is the estimates for next week 'payroll report we don't snowe if it's resistant, the way they seem not

to want to pause altogether and resume tightening. i don't know if the stock market has put that on the table. that's been the greatest disconnect the market is up, so you can't necessarily say on a realtime basis which one is ignoring me now. >> bryn, tessa, a nice bowen back 197 and change is where little a huge run into the investor day. now what >> i think the ceiling on the stock is well below the 200 day. investors need to know that. i think you've had such a big run off the low, back close to 200, i think the highs in the stock are in over the next few months i think where people will play is is that it continues to be one of most heavily traded stocks in the options market i

think it neither to digest from here now it's like you have to show me what you're doing i wouldn't be adding to the position at this point i would way to see in the broad market already this year go to tessa. nearly as much as the 2022 bryn, thank you very much. speaking of stocks that have moved a lot, this one in the opposite direction crowdstrike as we look ahead to next week, malcolm, the stock was at 242 it's at 126. palo alto delivered. is this one going to >> yes i'm thinking, based on palo

alto's strong results and the fact that palo alto is trying really hard to get to where crowdstrike is, it's already cloud so i think the recent moves is a good signal for crowd strike i'm also thinking in tech -- where can i look for places if the market starts to sell off. i think cybersecurity specifically is the place i want to go a specially when you consider ought they data breaches all they can do is cut head count and hang on and hopefully ride out the storm. >> malcolm etheridge, thank you, have a good weekend.

we'll see you on the other side, as we mar toward the close we're about to get two-minute warnings mike santoli's word, what is it? >> it was just a bit of a relief pop in the last couple days, but still the themes that have replained in place, signal areas of the market doing better if up a stronger economy, we just don't know the breaking point on yields. again, 4% was not necessarily the end all last year when we hit there in the fall. we'll see what we get. it very much depends not just on the jobs number next week. we have powell speaking on actuals. >> right. >> i want to see how they characterizes where they are in this process i went back and looked at the press conference from almost a

year ago, and he was very careful to say, look, it's only a '23, '24 where you'll see any effect they have very much built in this idea that they have done so much, and it doesn't happen in real time, so you shouldn't be reacting to 2-month-old data that we got last time we'll see if he has a sense of urgency or calm jason furmen is coming up on "overtime", by the way to laid out the case he made in the journal today, hey, go big >> he's very early he didn't think it was going to -- to go core inflation down. that's why really you can only be as confident as the next

inflation number that comes along. >> we've been on a three-week losing streak for the s&p 500, which thankfully ends today. a bit of a respite today, as we head to the weekend. i'll seal you all on the other side as we send it to morgan and john >> happy friday. that's the scorecard on wall street welcome to "closing bell: overtime." coming up this other, an exclusive interview with orlando bravo, who runs a firm can more than $120 billion in management. hi those thoughts on a.i., the macro environment and the opportunities in side of the ware ahead. >> plus we'll talk to jason furmefurm furmen straight into th