tv Options Action CNBC March 3, 2023 5:30pm-6:00pm EST
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right now on oa, china's annual parliamentary meeting set to kick off this weekend what impact will it have on the emerging and global markets? we'll break that down. then, the health-care trade has been a horror show carter set to trade two of the titans later, call to action with kevin kel limb his defensive trade on raytheon. let's get right into it with the trades heard round the world this week, the kweb, fxieem and
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ews making gains what do the technicals say about this globe trotting group? >> carter, take us around the world in charts. >> sure. so what we know of course, emerging markets are pretty massive underperformers of developed markets. now, right now if you look at the emerging market index, we're at all-time lows lows we saw in 1999, 2000, the dot com peak now that we've gone back to. look at the charts you could use any number of things, but that has all the elements of a bearish to bullish reversal that it ration on the screen, you see the moving average, the
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smoothing mechanism, the 150-day turning. you can annotate it. you can call it a head and shoulders bottom and a cup and handle meaning the point is that's what a bottom looks like. it's for a trade can overtime this outperform the enterprises of the s&p 500 no chance. >> you said you picked this one for an example, but -- >> a lot of china charts look the same same circumstance, meaning extreme weakness that's giving way to strength. >> mike, let's start off with the kweb. >> we saw a split decision in all of these kweb, we saw bullish activity. that's consistent with what carter was talking about here. specifically the march 32 calls women saw a big purchase of those earlier this week. buyer paid about a buck for
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5,000 of those, obviously betting on the june side i should say importantly we have been active in a lot of these names both within ewz and the constituency space of eem, fxi and, the k web j.d.com, we brought it friday, still own it that's up 6% we have a split decision when you take a laook at these stock. baba has been very hard hit. lee did welcoming out of earnings, and then if you look at -- i think that's kind of a push pair of 2s we got rid of baba, bidu and lee after the results. >> where do you stand on k web >> when we look at the options trades that have been occurring the last three to four months we've highlighted a bunch of times. very good especially when it comes to fxi and kweb.
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we've seen volatility option, contract volatility be cheaper last year around this time so it makes sense that a trader out there is taking a shot, buying a call, playing to the upside and it just does feel like a 2003 scenario where we're coming off this bear market entering a new phase of a bull market the same way we did in 2003. bolt took off, emerging market took off has the same fuel. maybe last month in february, the shakeout was just that, a carpet shakeout, and now it's poised to -- >> mike, you saw us a mentioned activity in fxi and eem for that matter. >> yeah, good point, because these two bets were in opposite directions fxi flow bigger than kweb, and consistent with it work we saw a purchase of 25,000 calls buy a paid 78 cents.
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so another big bull strike eem, that activity was the other way. june put spread. that thing traded 30,000 times, so the buyer of that is betting to the downside. let's take a look at the dynamics for a lot of these dp companies, many of them are cheap. baa pa, if you can get the growth people are expecting for those companies at that price in a u.s. stock you would be all over it. but you guys were talking at it in the prior half hour -- there really is a lot of political uncertainty, and i think that is a key head wind. steve was talking about whether or not you can wie that 5% growth and 3% inflation number, but at the end of the day what is going to surprise these stocks -- like i said, we own jd.com still and they're going to be reporting. the issue is a political one if we see something happen in taiwan, and did that $600 isn't
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anything in the grand scheme that's the material risk and it is a real one. >> symbolic we were going to let that happen even before the national people's congress, desite of what beijing has warned the u.s carter, trades dynamic considering china's what, 20% of the overall emerging markets in index. does the rest of the index, the rest of the world look worse >> that's just it. for instance, consider an eem itself the weightings are heavy so you've got to get that part right, the parts that compose the whole. but the common circumstance is extreme weakness that's basing and bottoming. if you look at the correlation now, it's very high. >> all right, let's now take a look stateside at next week's earnings number of names reporting. all with some pretty big moves mike, one us through them. >> crowd strike, we'll take a
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look at that one 11%. this is a name we own. docusign is another one. we are not actually in that one. ciena, we're looking at close to 9% lower end of next week, and on the retail side, dick's and ulta we don't own dick's, do own ulta that's a holly index if you're in these names be prepared for that. ulta had quite a good move recently, maybe an area of vulnerability. >> what jumped out to you, brian? crowd strike interesting seeing what z did. >> crowd strike, we have been pondering if you want to get into thator not. when you look at its valuation it's hard to tell.
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but when you look at what it does in terms of cybersecurity and growth and cloud space and how it plays into that, seems intriguing as a pier the stock has been beaten down so much it's lagged behind a lot of the growth tech names even though it's reached a turning point, seems like it's going higher when you look at moves mike mentioned, they're enormous on the options side when you look at the last five earnings, these options premiums are getting up to levels pricing in that movement in earnings, cr crowdstrike being one of them. might give you an opportunity to sell premium earnings at least in the back months because these options have gotten bit up so high expecting big enormous moves. >> which chart stands out to you, carter? >> let's take ulta, all-time highs. mike referred to vulnerability because of that. i'm with that. if i were long i would trim, reduce let's talk about docusign at the
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opposite end just to consider this, at its peak this was worth $55 billion, $315 a chair now it's worth $12 are those highs in for all-time? sure, we're going use more docusign and it will grow, but it's fascinating thing about markets that you get so ahead of yourself that chairs once they plunge and drop 80% you never retain those highs could you trade docusign for earnings okay but more importantly, has it seen its best day? for sure. >> for more "options action" check of the our website and news newsletter much more "options action" after this
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>> welcome back to "options action." both dr. khouw and dr. carter -- we've given you a degree, carter -- are counselling on tonight's health care call to action they're combining their forces carter, what do the charts tell you? >> for starter, this is an area we've liked, and it's not working, right so, the question is, will it at
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some point what we have now, circumstance where certain ones are in free fall rare to move from a 52-week high to 52-week low in two months and that's what's happening in j&j and pfizer really lagging so, the question is, is that an opportunity? i think it is. we can look at the charts. but what we have here are two marquee names that have come down to well defined prior lows, and the assumption is for a trade you can catch them for a bounce, j&j and pfizer is quite similar. >> mike, what's your trade >> we're going to take a look at pfizer it's interesting, when we talk about coronavirus pandemic related stocks, a lot of names get mentioned. you can talk about docusign, pellton, zoom. you could add all of those companiies together, and the
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gross revenues are not equal to the impact that it had for pfizer pfizer's revenues rose from $42 billion to $100 billion from 2019 to 2022 if you take a look at p paxlovid, they multiplied their revenues by two and a half times. of course that is why the stock rallied as much as it did. that is the reason why the stock is trading at less than 12 times earnings now why? people are not expecting the boost they received from that to continue the interesting thing is take a look at the level to which it has fallen at the end of the 2019, pfizer was a $216 billion value company. effectively all of that premium that got built in as a result of
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the enormous revenue boost they got from covid-19 treatments and vaccines has been eradicated i think, though, their they're likely going experience some pressure here and there as people continue to mark down their eps estimates, which i do expect to see go down. i think you can take advantage of the fact that the pharma companies tend to trade low volatilities i was looking to april 42 call spread you can purchase that for a small amount it was about 55 cents when i was looking at it earlier today. that is a way to get participation. it's not a big boost there is no company we can talk about that had a bigger impact and has seen it come and go as much as pfizer. >> brian, what's your take >> i think when you look at the whole space of the health-care industry here, this is maybe a cheap way to sort of play to the upside we've seen a contraction in
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volatility, so maybe this is an opportunity to buy cheap options and play for the direction back to the upside. do like names like amgen, bristol myer, united health care i like those names better than pfizer if you look at the technicals here -- -- carter can speak to them you trade above 42.5 strike mike is playing, i think there's more room to get back to 45. so it's a decent setup trade for a call sfroed play. >> carter, if you didn't want to pick an individual name would you play the sector for a bounce >> that's just it. while the sector has a lot of diversify communication, xlv is as big a way to play it as any, i said that two weeks ago -- three weeks ago. >> okay, noted. let's move on to silver stocks having their best week.
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brian, you're offering a trade that offers some exposure, but hedges itself with housing, tech, and some more stuff. >> yeah, what was that winston churchill quote, an enigma rapped into a mystery all in one? corning is one of those. when you look at this stock, it had been trading in a range for a number of months held in nicely at 2022 and looks like it's breaking out to the upside like you mention it's got a housing place with mortgage rates higher may struggle to get significantly higher, so there's a bit of a head wind when you look at a smart home esg play, a loft people on twitter either love esg or hate it here's one sort of in between that gets you techie with the esg play i want to sell a put, because the price of premium on options for this stock, going all the way out to august. i don't normally go that far
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out, but almost a 6% premium selling the august 95 put for $6, that brings my break even down to 89 that's the area where the stock broke out to the upside. in case i need to buy the stock down there, the stock does go lower, i think there's an enough premium in the options i can sell calls -- if i get put to the stock i can sell calls recover further. i think the premium is nice and juicy. stock pozed to move to the upside room to grow but not necessariry run to the upside because the stocks are so big already. >> mike, opinion on the trade? >> i think there's a decent chance you end up owning the stock. but the purchase price you're going to end up with won't be a bad one. going to be below 90 if you do have the stock put to you and you're going to be yielding 2.5%, maybe 3%
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the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. test where smart investors get smarter℠. welcome back to "options action." raytheon underperforming, down more than 2% you know what they say, the best offense is a good defense. kevin kelly joins us to lay out a trade on the name. >> hi, melissa. it's down 2% while it's the number one constituent in the industrial
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sector, up 5.5% some it's not participating with its sector, but that provides a unique and interesting opportunity, we believe, given the fact that there's secular tail wind for raytheon 60% of its business is defense and what we've seen is there's a recent contract to tell $619 million worth of weapons to taiwan, and raytheon's going to provide the missiles that's emblematic of their defense business that's expected to grow because the eu is going to expand their defense. japan is increasing their defense spending by 66%. the kicker for the stock is its commercial side of the business, which is start position recover. we know the commercial space has seen supply chain improvements as well as a lot of the airlines are needing more parts and aftermarket services
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kicker -- per share with the business coming back to be better than prepandemic levels so, the nice part about it is it's a free cash flow machine, which is very good for investors, because they'll probably increase their dividend, which is already indicative of 2.4% as well as do share buybacks it's interesting about the stock, given the fact that it's underperformed its sector and it's the number one constituent in the xli is you can go out here and buy this stock today around $99, and then what you want to do is you want to sell a call against it. let time be on your side and go out to may and you can sell that may 19th 2023 105 call for about a $1.65. you're going to get the dividend premium payments, 1.6%, then you
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can let the decay happen, let the stock try to rebound total of 8%. that's the highest open interest for the stock. >> all right kevin, thanks. mike, what's your take on the trade? >> yeah, i think we're getting to the upper end of the valuation range for this thing there is a war in europe, tensions in asia, we are looking at top line growth i do like the name, but i also believe the upside is a little bit limited, so i think the trade is good. >> carter? >> interestingly, while the stock underperformed the industrial sector, it's the largest constituent in the e aerospace group. this is a laggard within an entire sector, but a leader
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yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. welcome back to "options action." we got time for a tweet. one fan asks, can you say how the play american express? looking for a bearish bet. >> earnings are april 21st, which happens to be the friday of expiration. i like the 170 strike. probably going to use an option in case that earnings date moves because that's expected. i can play lower, maybe a may option to the downside, maybe to april beyond, 170 strike put i'm a buyer. >> let's get to the final call now. carter braxton worth.
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>> two big health care names so bad they're good j&j health care playing for a bounce -- as well. >> dr. khouw. >> chinese stocks are cheap, but i do recommend doing some hedging with some put spreads like those that we saw earlier this good evening and welcome to this cnn special "taking stock." jim is off tonight a solid rally, rising almost 2% the s&p with a three-week losing streak climbing back into positivity territory for the yield. the ten-year yield drops below 4% the bi
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