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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  March 6, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EST

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is the top "five@5. key for the markets this week fed chair jay powell heads to capitol hill for two days of testimony. likely laying out the case for more, not fewer interest rate hikes later on this year in china, president xi jinping kicking off the national
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people's congress. consolidating power and the slowest growth rate in decades. tesla cutting prices are key models again in a bid to boost demand later on, renewed push on capitol hill to limit or ban stock trading among executive branch officials it is monday, march 6th, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. let's check on the week for the futures. the dow's first winning week since january. futures are modest the dow jones industrial average is down 5% the s&p is flat. nasdaq is up by three points this is ahead of what we are calling wall street's lucky 13
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and the four major events that will likely hold the key to the markets next move. kicking off tomorrow is jay powell and the two-day testimony on capitol hill. this comes after friday's jobs report after the latest read on the consumer prices on the 14th. on march 22nd, the fed has the policy decision. the fed testimony and february jobs report and cpi and fmoc in 13 days. the data looking at 50 basis point hike over 25 hike in january. you see the set up here. january 6th, the probability of the moves happening has market
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edly so. we see the 10-year treasury at 3.9% the 30-year is 4.4.86 west texas crude is down just a bit compared to the end of last week in crypto, bitcoin and ethereum trying to find more upside traction they are not getting it this morning. bitcoin is flat. still be lose 23,000 .25% decline for ethereum. let's get a check of the trade in europe with julianna tatelbaum who is standing by in the london newsroom with the latest good morning, julianna >> good morning, dom here in europe, investors are
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paying attention to the headlines in china the 5% growth target for the year which some said was disappointing relative to expectation. despite that, we are seeing green on the board the dax up .30%. the cac 40 is up .40%. the ftse 100 is down .40% because of basic resources stocks this morning. most likely in part on the back of the china story the minors are selling off heavily. in terms of single stocks, two names. harris associates, credit suisse shareholder, divested the stake in the lender. that moves the saudi national bank and qatari bank holding 17% shares between them. the stock is down 1% harris associates had been the strongest proponents of credit
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su suisse, the defender taking place at the company, but said why go for something that is burning capital when the sector is generating that higher interest rates are providing a boost to the sector. the other name is ubs. the ceo ralph hamers with $1 million more in executive pay over last year this is particularly interesting with the ubs cut back the bonus pool by 10%. the ceo gets a boost, but the rest are getting lower c compensation relative to the previous year. >> thank you very much, julianna tatelbaum. let's get a check of the corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> dom, good morning arm, the chip maker, is looking
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to raise $8 billion in the ipo it is expected to file for an offering in april with a public listing this year. the company is hoping for valuation of $50 billion on friday, arm said a u.s. listing is the best option softbank bought arm for $32 billion. this announced plans for the ipo last year after nvidia called off the takeover deal. tesla cutting prices on the model s and model x in the u.s. to boost sales prices for a model s are down $5,000 the model x has been slashed by $10,000. in january, the company cut prices on the volume leader model 3 and model y. at investor day last week, elon musk said small changes in prices could have a huge effect on demand. tesla shares are up 60% this
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year u.s. lawmakers plan to introduce a bill this week to outline ways to ban foreign technology such as tiktok. data privacy and national security concerns have been swirling around tiktok which is owned by chinese bytedance mark warner is working on the bill with republican tom thune dom. thank you. we have the growth target at the lowest level in decades for china. this as president xi jinping plans sweeping changes to further consolidate his power. eunice yoon has more from beijing with the latest. good morning, eunice >> reporter: dom, on sunday, the outgoing premier opened the congress by laying out the targets for this year. they revealed to us that beijing is feeling cautious about how things are going to go the gdp growth target set at 5%.
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this is lower than last year and well below what the market expectation had been which had gone as high as 6% the premier said domestic demand is key he cited risks the country is concerned about. unregulated expansion in real estate and jobs. we saw that in the unemployment rate target which is slightly higher than last year of 5.5% which is opposed to under 5.5% a little bit of wiggle room there. the economic planner raised another concern for beijing. that is debt for local governments which the planner said needs to be addressed immediately. that also was reflected in the numbers we saw over the weekend. the fiscal deficit to gdp set at 3% slightly higher than last year also, the local governmentbond quota. special bonds number was set
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lower which indicates that they are thinking there will be a scaling back of investment of infrastructure projects. the budget priorities were revealed china will expand defense by 7.2% the fastest pace in four years diplomacy got a boost at 12.2% higher they are pumping out their story more on belt and road projects and science and technology boosted at 2%. now a special fund for chips a lot of importance of building up the chip industry that was up by 50% this also comes as premier called for what he described as a whole nation strategy for technology breakthroughs dom, not specifically talking about the u.s. in the competition, but that is how it is being read.
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>> eunice, if we look at how things are laid out by the national people's congress over the weekend and the power, is it fair to say at this point that china has to, in some ways, re-balance the economy with regard to try to achieve the growth targets they are modest and more de dependent on domestic consumption as opposed to the other growth drivers is this what we can expect out of china in the coming years or decades? >> reporter: that's right. that's what the leadership has been indicating. they need to be more self reliant. that means in technology and also it means on their own consumers. that was a key message that we got that the government here wants to keep people spending. of course, you can't be only do that by, you know, giving them subsidies, but that is something we are all wondering about you have to create an siermt
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t - environment that is stable the premier mentioned stability 33 times to get people more comfortable and get confident. it will take more than that. there has been a lot of discussion about the communist party changing institutions to have more influence in decision making the wall street journal put out a piece that cited sources that there could be an agency to centralize the data. that could mean multinational companies would have to get approval to export the data of the customers here elsewhere we will see how it develops. there is a lot of discussion of the centralization of power with the communist party and xi jinping at the top >> eunice yoon, thank you very much when we come back on the show, the end of the t.i.n.a.
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trade. why they are looking at interest rates at multiyear highs. and buying at the bottom why one u.s. investor sunk a lot of money into adani. and prepping for powell. we have roger ferguson here with latest we will have more when "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. ♪ at morgan stanley, we see the world with the wonder of new eyes, ♪ helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep ♪ puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪
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welcome back it has been a wall street
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investment standard since the financial crisis, but now with interest rates surging and bond yields highest in decades, the t.i.n.a. trade could end some banks are hitching their cart on this bandiwagon. goldman sachs is calling it the tiara. there are reasonable alternatives to stocks and then tapas there are plenty of alter alternatives and then tiara there is a realistic alternative to u.s. stocks tara, tapas, tiaras. let's talk this with timothy chubb. tim, if you look at these, we have talked about t.i.n.a. since i can remember
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it goes back to the investment crisis how have things changed for investors and risk-free rates are better than stock returns in some cases >> good morning. i'll go with tapas there you think about the generation which experienced the ultra low zero rate policy you think of the next macroeconomics cycle, there will be plenty of forces that drive prices permanently higher. news over the weekend looking at apple senmiconductor moving foxconn from china to india. you have challenging demo demographics impacting the labor market with higher prices translating into higher interest rates which means ideal
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environment for bond market investors and equity investors who are stock pickers with a rate of return positive for the first time in a long time. counter that with the back drop from valuation standpoint and our view is we are not through the earnings revision cycle that is expected to continue in the next quarter the equity risk premium is lowest since 2007. there are great alternatives here long term as we reset the economic cycle the, but in the short term, you should focus on the bonds over stocks. >> tim, we know every investor is unique in their needs and desires and wants and risks profiles is there a general way you approach the market to divvy up the bank-time investment cds and savings over equities?
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where is the tipping point in your mind? >> i would say recently we have been trying to position higher we are compensated to do so. we take that risk out of the portfolio. beyond cds and treasuries, we have taken that up a bit given that we're compensated with little risk as far as looking outside the areas of fixed income markets, there are areas within credit on the consumer side where you don't have to take on too much duration risk and get yield maturities in low double digit without the credit risk. we used to be in the 60/40 environment with more equity
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exposure to make sure they are getting what they need for retirement in this environment, we are dusting off the 60/40 playbook that we shelved for 15 years >> timothy chubb thank you ahead on "worldwide exchange," more trouble for norfolk southern after another train derailment in ohio we have more on that story when "worldwide exchange" returns after this but it also means cutting costs. because now clean energy is more affordable energy. we've been investing in american infrastructure for thirty years... lowering electricity costs today, and protecting from volatile energy prices tomorrow. so walk with us— and let's make cutting energy costs real. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities
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welcome back to "worldwide exch exchange." we continue to movnitor shares o adani. now gcg is finally speaking out about the buy the dip investments. our own seema mody has the inn certify view what can you tell us >> reporter: dom, accusations of fraud and price manipulation is not responding the asset manager from investing in adani. the cio of gqg partners who resides in florida said he read the report, but his own research led him to believe the adani infrastructure portfolio is a good bet >> we read the report, but we
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get paid through research. we did our own work and we have a different opinion. we followed the names for five years and never did anything after the due diligence, we talked to the bankers and partners it is remarkable how consistent the feedback is. we asked them would you ever give more money. of course, we would. >> reporter: jain's $1.9 billion investment in four of adani higher on the week it comes as india supreme court opened an investigation into adani practices. it is a unique investment for jain who is known for investing in safe spaces he bought exxonmobil in summer of 2021. he looked at the indian port which more
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valuable as a country. i hear he is headed on the road show to fixed income investors in the coming weeks. come >> it makes sense. the idea that you have to shore up confidence in the companies and person-to-person road show could do that. is there a short-term position for jain and his investment and what risk is he taking on investing at the lows he did for the adani company? >> reporter: dom, i asked him. he said this is a longer term investment for his portfolio he says this is a portfolio that has given the stock price drop he thinks it is valuable that will grow more value over time because these are hard assets from bridges to ports
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across the country he thinks this is a return and he expecting turns of mid to high teens he is pointing to one that became valuable over time. he said he sees value here a vote of confidence for the embattled industrialist. >> seema mody, thank you let's check on the top headlines with frances rivera in new york with the latest >> dom, good morning another norfolk southern train derailed in ohio this time 28 cars jumped the tracks near springfield. none of the hazardous materials cars deroiailed. less than a dozen residents within 1,000 feet of the site were asked to shelter in place for nine hours. president biden spent his sunday in selma, alabama in the speech in front of the
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edmund pettus bridge, he talked about the civil rights movements and safeguarding rights today. novak djokovic swung and missed to play in the u.s. organizers of the bnp in california announce he withdrew. he was seeking an exception out the covid vaccine. the department of homeland security denied the waiver and urged president biden to allow him to play. those are the headlines, dom back to you. ahead on the show, with jay powell set to speak tomorrow, we speak with roger ferguson today. what we is expected to hear tomorrow we'll be back after this break
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with more. and amazon continuing to tighten its belt as the ecommerce giant pulls back on the physical store foot fprintft it is monday, march 6th. welcome back i'm dominic chu in for frank holland this morning let's pick up with the u.s. equities this morning. seeking some direction a wait and see mode. the modests m moves so far again, very modest in the market ahead of the last few weeks. the 10-year treasury is now below 4% 3.92%. the 2-year treasury is 4.84% 30-year treasury is 3.84%.
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let's hillt oil prices wti with a pull back today $78.57 down 1.5%. similar decline for ice brent. $84.61 nat gas down 11% to $2.69 btu. let's get the latest with silvana henao. >> good morning, dom the effort to ban stock trading is finding new life. according to the wall street journal, josh hawley is expected to introduce a bill on the matter today the legislation would ban senior executives from owning or trading individual stocks.
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hawley's bill comes after the executive branch or congress after both bills fell apart last fall. twitter revealed a 40% drop in earnings and revenue for december from one year ago the figure comes after several advertisers slashed their spending on the platform moving elon musk's takeover the journal adds that twitter revealed advertisers are returning to the platform. amazon ramping up efforts to cut costs. it will close eight stores in new york and seattle and san francisco. it announced it would close some go stores and fresh markets. i always wanted to walk in. >> i have never had any
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experience silvana, thank you for that. the markets are facing a test this week with the february jobs report on friday along with jay powell's testimony to congress on the economy and monetary policy. on the data front, the key question is whether the january job gains carried over to last month which could reset the expectation of how high the fed raises rates investors have not heard from powell since the statement of signs of disinflation is set up. powell goes before the senate banking committee tomorrow and the house financial services committee on wednesday let's talk about the big week ahead with roger ferguson. former vice chairman and past president and ceo of tiaa and a
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cnbc contributor roger, it is great to have you on you were the guy behind the boardroom doors for years. take us through your narrative this is probably one of the toughest situations they had to be in navigating main street and wall street at the same time what does jay powell have to tell congress? >> thanks, dom pleasure to be heere he has three messages in the upcoming testimony he will reflect that labor markets are still tight. i think he positions that as positive and they are able to withstand increases and rates. the disinflation process is slower than he thought last month with the data showing stickiness with inflation. that is point one. point two, he wants to keep as
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much flexibility about the future of rate increases as possible you know, there is talk about 50 points i don't think that is baked in yet. i think he wants to keep as much flexibility to respond to incoming data. also to keep the market from getting too optimistic the third thing is to reinforce the 2% inflation tar get there is some whispering of a move there he wants to be clear that 2% is where they are headed. >> if that is the case, we know the fed is data dependent and said it for weeks, months and years now. there is anargument to be made roger, that the markets got off to a bullish feel after the last jobs report because signs that job growth is there with not as much inflation on the wage front. how much is the fed paying attention to the wage side of
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things as opposed to the broader number of macro jobs created in the country? >> it will have an eye on both, obviously. the job market is going to drive potential inflation in the area which is prone to inflation which is services. it is nice to see a little bit of cooling in wages. the job numbers have come in hot. i don't expect a repeat of the january blockbuster number the most recent claims data also was on the hot side. i think they are continuing to focus on the jobs number probably a touch more than the wage number because of the inflation picking up in the certify visit sector and expectations i think the focus should be on the labor market that is where the risk is and that is likely to be the number one topic. >> the fed hasn't had to face this scrutiny from main street
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america in a generation or two everybody talks about gasoline prices last year it was egg prices earlier this year people are still focused on the consumer side of things. how much does the fed really have to message itself in a different way, perhaps a different form of communication to make sure that main street america gets what's going on right now >> look, i think you have seen some of that already they are now talking about the impact on inflation on the average americans. they are talking about pocketbook issues to show they are an ttune to the fact that inflation is a drag and tax on moderate and lower income americans. they are putting the notion of raising rates and slowing the economy in a context that over time this is good for, you know, the average main street person you have heard them say that many times
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you also heard them say it could be bumpy they are trying to get people ready for a softish-hardish landing. a mild recession they are trying to speak to main street as well as manage expectations on wall street. >> roger, one reason we have you on is you wear multiple hats on the private sector and public side you have seen the policy side from the fed you see the asset manager side at tiaa. i wonder the change in paradigm which is there is no alternative. we have higher interest rates to a point now where there are reasonable alternatives. is the fed in a good spot? are capital markets now likely more efficiently allocating capital because there are now
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l legitimate risk-free rates >> i think it is important to get interest rates back to historically normal rates. the zero interest rate and there is no alternative is not healthy. money should not be free there should be a yield curve that reflects the fact that borrowing money over longer periods of time is more expensive. the fed should not talk down the longer end of the yield curve. i think we're in a healthy place where there are all ternatives getting back to some notion of fixed income inn vvesting for t retail investors is important. i think it is also important for businesses to have costs and capital reflect borrowing costs
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for a longer period of time. >> all right roger ferguson a heavy couple weeks coming up here thank you, sir. coming up on the show, china pulling back the curtain on the new normal as leaders look to revive the economy and the fallout of strict covid rules. as we head to break, the trending stories the raspberry rally going for more than $100 a box on e-bay. the organization is disappointed to see re-sales of the cookies the third installment of the "creed" movie series topping the
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weekend with the highest domestic debut the movie is a potentially key moment for amazon studios marking the first box office blockbuster since it bought mgm in may of 2021. and back for a limited time only consi kfc double down sandwich it replaces the buns of the sandwich with two chicken filets will be in stores today after a nearly ten-year hiatus if you want one, hurry it is on sale for a month only double down. two chicken pattypatties sandwid by two pieces of cheese. "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment go. go brain.
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mcneal he had a lot of experience on regulatory wise and economic side dewardric, thank you for joining us with the expectations set by the chinese communist party, has it changed the investment environment? should people feel comfortable investing in china or take more of a wait and see approach >> dom, i think that when you look at the 5% gdp target, it is a good target for china. what they are focused on in that number to me is more about credibility. they are focused on making sure they have some growth target that signals to the domestic audience that china is looking to return to economic stability. dom, setting a target last year
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at 5.5 every time you had an analyst come on and the conversation was they will not hit that target. china is looking for credibility with this number it is conservative, but realistic. you know, i think on the market side of things, this is a good signal there are other things happening underneath those top line numbers for gdp and military growth that has me concerned if i'm an investor. that is the structure reform, dom, that is really pushing the party to the center of the economic management of the day-to-day economy that would have me more worried than 5% or 5.5% gdp top line figure. >> dewardric, in a previous life, you were in the domestic
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and that is one of the biggest militaries in the world. how much does geopolitical risk factor into the investment thesis for folks do you have to wonder if china will go after taiwan or what the u.s. will do in retaliation, hypothetically how much does that play into the suggestion -- discussion? >> you have to consider concerns around taiwan. you have to consider that is not a near-term scenario what is concerning to me, dom, is the tech war we find ourselves in with the u.s. and china and what you see happening with countries restructuring in long-term competition with each other. that is outside taiwan the strategic challenges that
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china poses to the u.s. and u.s. looking to match that are real concerns for me in terms of volatility and uncertainty in the policy and geopolitical environment for sure. >> we have a couple moments left here is big tech in china safe to invest >> i would be careful in this sector, dom. this is where come pe signi -- competition lies particularly a.i i don't think the biden administration is finished doing everything it needs to do to protect u.s. tech and u.s. leadership in the sector me, personally, i would be hesitant in that particular sector when it comes to china. >> dewardric mcneal. thank you. as we head to break, throughout the month of march, we are celebrating women's heritage sharing stories of women in business and those in the cnbc
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a second norfolk southern train derailed in ohio this latest derailment did not involve hazardous materials. arm is expected to raise $8 billion from the u.s. stock market debut this year tesla slashing prices on model s and model x days after musk set cuts on other models stoked demand. ubs cut employee bonuses 10% due it to a drop in the deal making despite that, the ceo ralph hamers saw a pay increase. and the wall street journal looking to have binance to avoid prose prosecution. and apple preparing to release a new 24-inch imacac th
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year. back to your money and lucky 13 and the four events that an w -- that will hold the key to the next few trading days. jay powell with the testimony on capitol hill and then the friday jobs report for february with the latest read on consumer prices on march 22nd, the fed policy decision on interest rates a lot of happening in two weeks. let's bring in tiffany mcghee. tiffany, how important are these four catalysts for the market in the coming months? >> good morning, dom listen, we are seeing the market react to all of the little drops of data and fed be comments.
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really, you know, i really think the single most infafluential event to get us back in sustainable positive territory is the fed pausing rate hikes. the s&p was up 9% year to date a while ago and now up 4.5%. we are seeing, you know, the market react to data and news. those are short-term blips long-term, i think the fed pausing rate hikes is going to be the thing that sustains the market >> do you think it will happen the pause that people are talking about? it seems hard to believe that all of the speak we heard that it is a possibility any time soon >> listen, i think we are going to continue to see volatility at least through the first half of the year
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i don't expect the fed to make a bold decision in the next few months you know, it really remains to be seen. investors have a schedule of economic data released and fed comments you know, if you are an investor and you understand those events are coming, position your portfolio. >> if you position in that way, is this the time to buy? should you stay in the market? should you raise cash? what is the strategy >> if last year was patience, this year's theme is get ready and stay ready you know, position your portfolio and make sure you have cash on hand to be able to buy the names you want to buy when there is a little inflection point when they are on sale is really key also, re-balance we had a really interesting year
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last year. if you haven't re-balanced the portfolio, it is time to do that make sure you have that cash on hand to take advantage of the opportunities. >> all right before we let you go top picks? >> microsoft with a.i. they are well positioned to integrate a.i. across the platforms. take a look at ferrari revenue of $3.9 billion. net profit margin is 20% >> it's a big ev play for the long term. ev and a.i. for tiffany mcghee thank you. see you soon. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. the markets are in a wait and see environment. dow implied higher by two points again, four major catalysts
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coming up in the next two weeks. all fed and interest rate related. economic data. i know "uaoxsqwk b" is picking up coverage next see you tomorrow power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market i screwed up. mhm. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud.
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well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck.
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good morning stock futures are flat as investors debate whether the t.i.n.a. trade is over and whether there is a reasonable alternative to equities. tiara and tapas. >> potential alternatives? and tara >> tiara is better >> tiara is no good.
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tiara is good. over the weekend, china announcing the lowest economic growth target in decades we go live to beijing. the economic road map to ban foreign technology like tiktok it is monday, march 6th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. we have green arrows across the board. last week was a good week for the markets. you hath

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