got? >> i like netflix here they're trying to figure out this password sharing piece. i think it's an opportunity here >> all right we'll keep watching that up nicely today. how about you, shannon, wrap it up. >> ice, 50% of their revenue is recovering and they continue to diversify. >> all right thank you very much. i'll see you on the bell exchange is now. ♪ ♪ thank you, scott hi, everybody. happy monday i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead it's the curve that cried wolf, a worsening recession warning, are investors growing complacent will powell address it himself on the hill tomorrow will the jobs report friday confirm it with a major slowdown or not it's a big week and we'll get you ready for it with how to be positioned plus, should you buy or bail on china? the details are still scant and our guests have the opportunity

and they'll tell us where. and amazon down 50% since its pandemic peak, and what do you do with the stock? we have a good old bull-bear debate coming your way, but first, let's get the latest on these markets with dom chu >> this is very much a wait and see market we have the four potentially massive categories in the market and if you take a look at the reason why the market is positive, but not much so, fractionally a half a percent gain and hi'll point out that almost a third of the entire advance for the dow jones industrial average, the point or price-weighted index is just in apple shares alone and i'll have that in just a second. and it is up 16 points up 1.5% at the highs of the session we were up roughly 33 points. at the lows of the session up roughly 6. it's been a positive day kind of

in the middle of the range and the nasdaq composite and the same percentage as the s&p and 11,738 the last trade there. i mentioned the mega-cap technology trade, and interest rates are in a state of flux given the catalyst these next coming two weeks we do have alphabet contributing a lot -- rather, alphabet, microsoft and apple. apple is up about 2.5% due in no large part or small part to goldman sachs analysts who have now upgraded or initiated coverage of the stock with a buy rated now. it's a little weird. they resumed coverage and they suspended it back in the fall and they changed analysts and the bottom line here is they think it's a $199 stock and they have a buy rating on it and that's doing a lot of the upside moves for technology and watch the other ones and the bull-bear debate as kelly points out and then rates, this is the most inverted and this is the most that we've had short term rates above long-term rates that we have had going all of the way back to october 1981

that's how inverted, so to speak this yield is at least when it comes to two-year treasury notes and two-year treasury notes and it currently sits, kelly at 91 basis points and 0.91% if you look here, we did have a minus 93 this morning and keep an eye on that, one of those recession indicators and the question is just how reliable is it in this year of a quantitative easing and quantitative tightening. back over to you >> thank you very much fed chair powell is set to testify before the senate banking committee meeting tomorrow morning should we expect any clues for the fed's next move and steve liesman has more what are you expecting, steve? >> it is interesting because fed chair powell is sitting for two testimonies this week and he'll have to tell congress that a year into what is the most aggressive rate hike cycle in a generation the fed isn't still confidently on the road back to 2% inflation target. i think powell is going to suggest the possibility of

higher rates than the 513 consensus of the fomc in the economic projections and he'll suggest rates will remain at peak level for some time and indicate some, but again, not sufficient progress. the big problem for powell, it is not showing headed to target any time soon and not according to the most recent data and high frequency writing over the weekend, quote, a part from the slump in the most interesting housing sector and monetary policy has not yet had the desired effect on prices and the labor market or the economy. powell can be expected to, i think, at least affirm the market's new and more hawkish outlook on the fed that has a terminal rate of 545 by october. he could have hopes for easing and more for what's priced next year keep options open in case the jobs report friday shows some sign of loosening and inflation

the next week and it shows any signs of cooling, but kelly, i think the key here is he'll keep the doves from having much to trade on >> steve for now, thank you. our steve liesman. so who's got it right on the economy? the yield curve or the fed is the fed tightening into a recession in let's ask jason brady and ceo of thornburgh investment management and from reynolds strategy. jason, give us a sense are you in the kind of -- this is the start of a new bull market phase or just, you know, another head fake in a bear market >> when we look at the markets and look at economic indicators in particular you see a few things one, the leading indicators and steve just mentioned housing, manufacturing, those are slowing. you're seeing all the lagging indicators, jobs on friday being a big one still holding strong so for us, we're still in this market where the leading indicators show some challenges and earnings showed some challenges and we're looking for durable businesses >> sorry if i'm being a little

slow so you think this is still an expang or do you think this is the business cycle going into recession? >> i think we're much closer going into a slowdown in recession by the end of the year versus having some immaculate liftoff from here. >> right >> brian, you see the work and we have tons of people who say no this is the start of a new rally and this will be a soft landing or no, it's a mid-cycle slowdown and it's just 2015 or 2016 all over again what do you think, brian >> the stock market broke down below the s&p 4,018 area in june we haven't done anything since it's been a choppy market and stocks haven't gone up or down around that trend for almost nine months. i don't see that changing. we're in the middle of a rally now, but i think we're going to have a debt ceiling debate this summer which will likely send stocks back down i think that decline would be viable, but i don't want to

chase stocks up here i want to be a better stellar in rallies. >> why do you think, brian, because you know this better than anybody and actually the two of you are perfect to comment on this. usually they're pretty strong. shally we see demand is picking up and hey, people are getting nervous and brian, you weigh in first. there's been a ton of issuance and it seems like it's going pretty well. >> the credit market is fine it's giving money to companies that will go to buybacks and dividends, but the money market is in chaos because of this debt ceiling debate and those markets are separate they don't play off each other shally when there's panic in the money market it takes three to six months for that to flow through the stocks so stocks can rally on the back of credit, but i think the money markets will take them down later this year when congress gets into the debt ceiling debate. >> yeah. maybe that's more the leading indicator and the fed looked at

the senior loan officer, saying that should predict higher defaults on high yield and we're going to see that come home to roost. how would you describe the durability, i guess we'd call it, of things like credit that would normally about to be slowing in a big way already be setting those kind of warning signs? >> you're absolutely right chair powell referenced tightening financial conditions when you see financial conditions expected by the market being loose and part of it because of the bank loan survey you see the yield measured by tips measured by 2.5% in the last year and a half that is enormous and we've gotten back to bonds that can provide some value so it's no surprise. we're seeing massive flows into fixed income which is certainly pushing people to buy the market >> true. >> for us it's a bit of oh, my gosh, i can finally do something with this entire fixed income market rather than a really great leading indicator. i've been a credit investor for a really long time and it's a myth that the credit investors

are smarter than everybody else. >> how dare you? >> quick final comment from both of you before we move on jason, do you think this is just a waiting game in other words, the leading indicators are down and just the rest of the data holds up and you give it six more months and we'll be in the middle of a recession? >> it is the case and we moved 500 basis points in the last cycle versus 400 so i expect that to start to weigh on the market. that said, even though the fed has to create room, i think we're certainly much closer to the end of rate hikes than we are in the beginning >> do you agree with that, mike, where do you think the funds rate could be headed and we'll see what happens friday and people are now saying 6%. >> we're closer to the end of the tightening than the beginning, but i agree with jason and they're not smarter than other investors and they actually caused the problems and six months later the stock market investors realized what's

going on so i think we're in sync here. final comment on this, meaning -- say we get past the debt ceiling because i take the point of how nasty that's going to be and where are we during the september/october timeframe. >> i would like the summer and we'll have the drop because of the debt ceiling debate and i want to buy that and that's where we are now and it will be a choppy year. >> all right stay right there let's pivot and talk china they set their price target at 5% this year too consentive or optimistic as they come out of the lockdown and sharma says he doesn't think the chinese economy will possibly ever overtake the u.s on that note let's bring in brendan ahern chief investment officer. great to have you on a day where we are awaiting more clarification from the administration on whether there will be an eo, further cracking down on china. what are your expectations >> one on a purchase basis china

is larger than the u.s. economy. for the previous speaker he may have missed some of the data there, but we will see a reverse private equity on venture capital particularly military sensitive area that's potentially a real positive that's not played as deep as the more hawkish views and net-net, china's economy will have a solid 2023 really led by the consumer and something that was reaffirmed by premier li and his working report readout today. >> i don't want to get super wonky, ppp is more than the relative standard of living if you want to talk about the ability to win a military arms race wouldn't it matter much more nominal gdp, one versus the other? >> i know, a, china did mention that their military defense budget will go up 7% from last year and that puts it above $200 billion, it kind of puts a

little bit of this military -- that pure data shows that we have a huge, huge advantage over china which i don't think anyone will -- net-net, china's economy is large and it's only a few trillion behind the united states so yes, the percent gdp growth will slow and ultimately, who cares? i think ultimately who cares about gdp data we're talking about earnings of companies that are geared to china's consumer and we have a great one coming after today's close with trip.com and their big bookings and expedia and on thursday we have j.d.com reporting earnings and ultimately, what we heard today is pro-consumer and that is the number one takeaway. >> why, brendan, is it that these tech giants were not invited to the congress this time around. normally in the past it's the biggest companies and it's the tech highfliers and this time it was not. it's industrial and a.i. doesn't that tell you that they're a little bit out of

favor with the leadership? >> i think, one, because a lot of the u.s. stance with huawei, china needs to raise its domestic semiconductor manufacturing capability and they'll be cut off potentially of unreliable suppliers and they'll have to pivot and create their own or go to other suppliers from beyond u.s., potentially problematic for u.s. semiconductor providers. i think on the internet side and on the domestic consumption side, kelly it's a good point that we don't see them and it's protecting them from being pulled into the political rhetoric between the two countries. >> brian, i turn to you. you think there might be some spare capacity in china right now, right that demand is not fully filling what they can produce. >> china's had a tough three years, but in the last two months their version of the purchasing manager's indeckx ha risen so far this year to a decade high. that tells me that chinese

manufacturing will outpace their consumption. they're an export-led economy and their exports at the end of the year were near an all-time high so we'll get more exports to the west from china and that's deflationary. it might push up the price of raw materials, but we've already got in the west a glut of inventories and china is going to add to that that is going to bring inflation down we will produce more stuff at lower prices both in the west and in china >> that's a very good sign, potentially for inflation and the fed's fight here jason, what's your take on how the re-opening is going or not going so far >> i think it's easy to imagine that when you get re-opening suddenly everything turns on because that's sort of how we try to look forward, but it takes some time, right we're talking about economic data that is going to flow through as the re-opening occurs and the re-opening was a shock it was a real shock to the chinese economy. so for us the 5% target is actually realistic and

reasonable and sustainable, all of which are generally positive. maybe not for march, but over 2023 and beyond. >> so does that mean you would recommend china as part of people's portfolio >> i think china is a place where there is a ton of opportunity. the reality is it's a -- it's a market of stocks, right? so there are some things that are attractive and some not, but i do think that it is an export-led economy it is a very tech-enabled economy and there is a consumer consumption story and you put that any other place in the world people would say that's pretty interesting and i don't know why that would be tremendously different although a real challenge around continued interference >> brian, would you avoid china as an investment or do you think you have to be more tactical about it >> i think this puts global stocks in sync with each other and so we're in rally mode right now and after they forced money market funds to go into that

debt i would have rallies into the summer globally. >> brendan, i'll give you a quick final word >> i think, ultimately, we believe the pain trade is higher and simply because of the allocation to china and that's to jason's point and china will be a strong, 2023 over the course of the year and we're big, big believers over the companies they hold because they're so oriented to the consumer because we're the number one play for investors in china. >> we'll leave it there for now, guys thank you all. brian reynolds and jason brady on deck, two key interviews, jeff cheffield of pioneer will join us with his take on where oil prices are going the owner of the empire state building with his bird's-eye view amid the concerns about office vacancies and he is up 2% dow up 81 at the high and it's

the underperformer for the year and for the day where the nasdaq is up 0.4% and the 10-year, look at the ten-year yield, by the way, and it has round tripped and back up toward 4%. 3.977. keep an eye there. we're back in a moment ♪ ♪ this is "the exchae"n bcng o conventional thinking delivers conventional results. at allspring, we break away with purpose.

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♪ welcome back oil prices are still negative on the near, defying bullish predictions on china's re-opening, gas prices have collapsed and it's been a help to consumer confidence and tamer inflation, but a headache for energy producers now the biggest leaders are in houston at cambridge energy associates otherwise known as cera, and brian bridges us an interview with scott sheffield with the ceo of pioneer natural resources. >> thank you very much good to see you again. kelly was laying it out in the open, oil prices are down on the year and everything seemed to point -- you were bullish when we talked in january everything seems to be pointing to bullish, and china re-opening and whatever, but oil prices keep falling what's going on with the price of oil >> brian, good to be on your show and looking forward to wednesday night. >> thank you

>> they bounced around between $73 and $80. it's at $80 today so the question is when are we going to break out? what's going to cause it to break out? when china ends in april, demand is expected to increase in china 800,000 to a million barrels a day by the end of the year also, if you look at u.s. production and when it's done, everybody said it was going to add a million barrels a day this year the eia just came out with december in '21 and december '22, we only added a half a million barrels per day. >> that's what's frustrating the white house, isn't that your job to add more production that's what we are being told? no our model has changed and the service calls are up significantly so if you look at our free cash flow it was 8 billion last year and the number that we printed will be 4 billion at $80 for 2023 so inflation is up, oil prices

are down so people just don't have the capital to continue to grow. >> you've got the capital. if i'm playing the devil's advocate, and i'm in the white house right now and i say, scott, you printed money and record-free cash flow and dividends, buy back stuff you need to put more drills on the ground and bring down the price of gasoline, although i also address that do we have the refining capacity even if we were to produce more oil to produce more gasoline >> yeah. we don't have the refining capacity and secondly, we'll be back in the same stock that we had ten years. the service call will go up 20%, 30% and it takes away free cash flow and secondly, the -- we just don't have the industry doesn't have the inventory most companies are drilling tier 2 and tier 3, and we just don't have the potential to grow u.s. production ever again. i think we may get back to 13

million barrels a day in the next two to three years at a very slow pace. >> scott, it's kelly here. i hope you can hear me okay. i know it's busy behind you. can you tell me where the break even price is for a barrel of oil? maybe yours, maybe the industry's broadly speaking if we stay here around $80 a barrel >> yes, kelly. it's about $39 is our break even price. we stated that on our recent earnings call. >> which means at this point you have tons of cushion and we've seen the outperformance of energy stocks relative to the price of a barrel of oil do you worry that we could see it head lower and do you see a rift in opec over the issue? >> no. i see us at a bottom we've had everything thrown at us and a million barrels a day thrown at us and we've had a recession and chinese lockdown and we've been bounced around 73

and 80 wti the question is when do we break out? i predict this summer we'll break past 80 wti on the way to $90 a barrel. >> by the way, the ceos of schlumberger and xlb, they didn't say that quite that directly, but they both thought oil prices would rise into the year speaking of rumors and speculation. i'll just do a quick -- how about that for a transition? there was a story last week, i think it was, that pioneer was interested in buying range resources, rrc, the stock soared and you threw cold water on it will you put it to bed right now? >> yes we usually say no comments and we came out a few hours later obviously due to the reaction by employees and shareholders and said that there was no deal. there was never a deal so we were never contemplating any deal with range resources. >> you've talked about consolidation, inventory levels,

maybe yours leveling off a bit is there room for consolidation? would you do a deal with somebody >> we are always focused in the basin. we have over 25,000 drilling locations and it will take a very high bar for us to look out the permean basin. i still think the industry needs to consolidate as inventories deplete i still believe that you have major consolidation in the industry and there are too many public companies there may be your headline is the last sentence of the interview, kelly you're right it is loud and there's a lot of action and by the way, it's an interesting year because this year you have a lot of these companies and you've been consistent with this coming out and saying, you know what? we produce oil and gas and you're going to need us for decades to come. there's sort of a new vibrancy, i think, and it will play a big role in the energy transition,

as well. oil and gas. gas makes wind turbines, carbon fiber. >> true, and it's not going away any time soon. brian, thank you so much scott, we appreciate your time quick programming note we'll hear from ryan lance tomorrow. we look forward to that and later this week catch the premiere of cnbc's new show "last call with brian sullivan" at 7:00 p.m. eastern my next guest says it will be difficult for the the sector to repeat the 2022 performance >> hi, kelly >> the biggest takeaway is he highlighted what a lot of us in the market see as a price spike. maybe the joking a nal ye and the traffic going into manhattan, of course, the george washington bridge.

most days most cars go across fine and one day, boom, it takes three hours to get across. >> do you think there would be a price collapse >> that's true why oil prices are 80 bucks right now is there's concerns about china coming back online and really ramping up demand also, too, issues about you know, our own economy and what the fed may or may not do to the extent the fed's pivoting and that bodes for more demand and also, too, we're getting eyes on the summer driving season upon us and we're starting to spike well ahead of that which is now and that's the other issue there are a lot of vulnerabilities in the market and it's been sort of the same narrative through a good year or so, plus, that the sky is falling and we're going back to triple digit and that's what happens. >> i do take note when someone like carter wirth becomes a buyer of crude and it has been so low for so long and if it

goes back to the long side, it will be a problem. we're at 80 now. will we end the year where we started on wti nat gas has a spike there. what do you think? >> natural gas is the absolute chance argues for a rebound. we saw some of that on friday and it's back down again. >> right >> it's been a casino of late, for sure trade small in that one for now. oil, i think, look, i think what the charts are saying, charter wirth, it does point to an upside breakout. the narrative and the bullish mentality in the market also could become a self-fulfilling prophecy i'm skeptical of a couple of thins and one of the things being china reopening and i'm not sure it will come back guns ablazing and we'll see you, and we're talking about how that might be a tricky proposition or it might not come to fruition,

and i know you'll have on another guest that will talk about a lot of problems and i'm not as afraid of that, but i do have to yield to the market sentiment that it says higher for now, but i do think that we could see a return to much lower prices >> quick final thought as everyone gathers in houston, a year ago prices were 130 and the russian war on ukraine and all of these factors and this is a very different feel and what do industry leaders do and i don't know if mr. sheffield hif hi hinted because there's been an underperformance of the price and an overbuild of inventories. do we need consolidation >> yes one thing his company has done is emphasized the return to shareholders and they have the variable dividend that has 16% at a 6 p-e so it's incredible. last year the stars completely aligned and super-high natural gas prices and super high crude oil prices and the refining

margins were unlike anything i could ever imagine in my career. we're seeing those numbers come to the bottom line as the reports come in for the full year so i do think there is likely some excess a lot of extra drilling and people getting over their leverage so yes, it's natural in this boom and bust business in oil and gas that you'll see consolidation. >> all right john kilduff, thanks for your time. >> yep coming up this video simulation shows just how close two planes came to colliding in austin, texas, last month. near-misses at the airport are becoming more common we'll have that and the latest incident in boston today check out this chart since summer 2020 amazon has underperform the qqqs. are the growth days over or is this the buying opportunity of a life time. a good bull/bear debate coming up on "the exchange.

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welcome back to "the exchange," as rates are taking the heat out of the market's rally. the dow is off 55 off a high of 181. the nasdaq, though, still off half a percent let's get to bertha coombs for a cnbc update. >> kelly, here's what's happening at this hour the chairman of the district of columbia's city council says he's withdrawn the planned overhaul of the city's criminal code that the senate is preparing to block, but congressional aides tell nbc news the vote will go ahead because once d.c. legislation is transmitted to congress for approval, it can't be taken back president biden says he will not veto the gop-sponsored bill that will override the d.c. council because he also opposes weakening penalties for some

crimes including carjackings >> the sec says it has successfully obtained an asset freeze for miami's bk coin management and co-founder kevin kang he accuses them of raising around $100 million to invest in crypto, but instead using some of the money to make ponzi-like payments and for personal expenditures such as vacations, sporting events and a new york city apartment and a stella mccartney's fashion show in paris, horses shared the runway with models wearing leather-free clothing made from mushrooms, apples and wine grape waste, among other eco-conscious materials. mccartney says she is exploring the relationship between humans and nature. >> i wish they showed, what did the models do? were they on the horses? >> i am not sure, but you know, living in new york city you see dogs often dressed better than people this dressing of the animals thing is really starting to take

off. >> you wonder how far she can push it. what would people show up for? >> she's very committed to not using animal products. >> totally way ahead of the time on that one. >> it's a real, real effort. >> i love that horse there bertha, thank you for the bertha coombs, up next, bucking the trend and we'll look auto how office landlords are navigating the post-pandemic with the world the post-pandemic with the world famous empire state building we've been investing in american infrastructure for thirty years... lowering electricity costs today, and protecting from volatile energy prices tomorrow. so walk with us— and let's make cutting energy costs real.

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." even as major employers are pressing workers to come back to the office, the wreturn to work pandemic has been bigger than expected and stocks like vornado trading at less than a third of where they were. empire real estate is better catching two analyst upgrades and up 17% this year the new york-focused reit that does own the empire state building carries no floating rate debt and is still reporting 90% occupancy in its properties. empire state realty trust chairman and ceo anthony malkin. it's great to see you again. welcome. nice podium. >> nice to see you well, we are gland our friends at citi were able to make this possible today >> ooi'm curious, how are you still at 90% occupancy in the

building walk us through the details of that, if you could. >> actually, it's because of the portfolio and the real difference's outperformance in 2022 we increased our leased percentage by 260 basis points and the occupancy percentage by 210 basis points and that's a combination of the right buildings in the right locations. we're leaders in energy efficiency we're leaders in sustainability, healthy buildings, indoor environmental quality and our locations are excellent, our leverage is low and we offer well, modernized buildings that tenants really want and that's been great for us in '22 and on in '23 >> to have a tourist destination. if every office building had a tourist destination people might not be so worried. that said, you do have exposure to technology, media and advertising.

do you worry about major tenants and you have linkedin, and i don't know if they'll be subject to further layoffs and maybe cost-cutting pressures >> linkedin started with us as a 2500 square foot sub tenant and they're 600,000 square feet in our portfolio located at the empire state building. they're terrific partners with us, and of course, we have microsoft that owns linkedin and that's our credit on the lease and they've continued to expand and they have rights to expand in the future and new york is a terrific place to hire the engineers and the people who tenants want to have and it's a much better quality of life that then is available in san francisco so we feel pretty strong about that and our conversations of what we've got. we have over 2.5 million square feet of new leases signed since we went public in 2013 which are expansions of existing tenants and that speaks to the fact that we choose the right tenants that

want to expand with us and can afford to do so and are attracted to the offering we have. >> i emphasize this point about the balance sheet, if you had debt coming due at higher rate, analysts are giving you credit for not having that. i want to back up, anthony, if i may and whether it's vornado, you or other reits, the peak was in 2015 and 2016, why is that? >> well, i can tell you this much, we came out public at '13. we are where we are now. i think there has been a general move away from publicly traded reit stocks into the perceived safety of privately traded reits or just private funds, and the interesting thing is that there's this big disconnect between the apprisaaisals on th private holdings and the money shifts back into the public

markets the discounts will decrease. >> very -- it's the same argument and people say if you're in a bond fund you could be down 30%. well, the bonds you're holding are also worth less. you just don't know it >> right. >> are you confident you will ride this out for the next couple of years and not be concerned about increasing defaults or delayed payments in the office space >> well, look. we're in good shape with our tenants. my background before i started out in the real estate business was in private equity on the corporate side, not real estate. so we are very focused on credit quality, stv who just signed with us for 65,000 square feet at the empire state building moving from what used to be a super-hot area park avenue south and that's owned by a very wealthy industrial american family who has a lot of money behind it. we feel that we've chosen the right tenants. we've chosen tenants who want to be where we are and we have a different price point that make us far more competitive for what we offer than anybody else. >> it's a fascinating case of

building by building literally what's happening there and the choices you all have made. thank you for joining us, anthony. i really appreciate your time today. >> thank you very much the grammy goes to -- anthony malkin with empire state realty trust still ahead, you're looking at a simulation of a near-miss of two aircraft in austin a month ago close calls like this are on the rise indo as ok at why and what i beg nebout it. that's next.

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>> welcome back. u.s. aviation regulators are getting ready to hold an emergency safety summit and are ordering the review of industry data after recent near-collisions. a wing clipped another wing's tale at boston's logan international. why are we seeing these incidents? phil, the fact that they're convening a panel suggests it's not our imagination. these really are on the rise >> no. i hate to say this, kelly. it's not your imagination. it's the fact that they're getting a lot more attention because we've seen a string of them, but the numbers and the fa attractions this has been tracking it for years.

the numbers show that statistically, we're seeing about what we usually see. this is just january and february, and you can see that as we've seen more flights the number of runway incursions and it's not always the plane, taxi and sometimes it's at the gate and something may have happened maybe with the tug truck or something like that, so that's the bottom line here this is animation and a simulation, i should say from senator ted cruz's office during a senate hearing, was there a near-miss in austin in early february, and this is what it would have looked like and again, this is completely a simulation if the fedex plane that was coming in to land would have continued and not pulled up as the southwest plane was preparing to take off and did take off people look at this and say this is an example of bootswhat's goo at airports and this is the focus of a safety hearing -- not a hearing had, a safety summit

that will be taking place next week and at that summit you will hear from airlines, airports and regulators and they'll talk about why they think this is happening. we've seen a slew of new people taking positions in the aviation industry whether it's pilots, air traffic control operators, ramp operators and people in different positions at airports and at airlines. you've got a lot of new people who are involved here and some are saying is it a case where these folks are not fully trained in terms of what's happening and then you have the congestion, kelly. we've seen a number of flights in this country and the number of people flying has exceeded pre-pandemic levels and that's not slowing down the faa realizes they have to address this and that's what they're hoping to do at the safety summit. >> so the incursions don't appear to be unusual by historical standards >> correct. >> is the nature of them more severe than in the past? >> let me take this -- >> we take a wing versus we

almost collided mid-air. >> you showed the video from boston today do you know where that happened at most people will see that and they'll say, they were two planes at gates and sometimes that happens sometimes planes when they're maneuvering back and forth, a tug may not do it com plpletely accurately and a wing clips a tail and things like that. this does not mean it was dismissed and that doesn't mean there was any threatened loss of life it was not two planes in the mid-air collision and there are some that are much more serious and we're not dismissing those and down playing the significance of those. >> are they on the rise? >> there was one at newark not long ago. >> do we know? >> kelly, it's about the same and kelly, this gets into the question, do we notice it more because we are in the age of social media where if somebody sees something or there's some video and then they start putting it out there or are we actually seeing a case where the

faa is going to have to sit down with the airports and the airlines and say, look, we've got to do a better job here because clearly, we are not rising to the occasion in terms of providing as much safety as possible. >> right right. >> yes, we are the safest aviation system in the world and instants and they it could be done better. >> i hope you're right, not right, but i hope it's just our imagination and they aren't any worse than usual because i'm already hearing all sorts of takes because this is because we're short on air traffic controllers and all the rest of it, and maybe not. maybe it's just magnified for whatever reason right now. we'll leave it there, as they say, as they're screaming at us, stop talking thank you very much. until next time, phil lebeau >> still ahead, amazon may be higher today, but it's pin a painful stock for investors, is it a great time to buy or is it a dead growth stock? a good old bull/bear debate is

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welcome back big cap tech is seeing a rebound after a disastrous '22, but the performance is uneven. meta up 57%. apple up 20% amazon trailing with a 14% gain.

alphabet and microsoft, single digits but they had better years. amazon is still down 8% since earnings last month, when saw web services come in below estimates and weaker than expected q1 guidance the company in cutback mode, pau pausing construction on a second location in georgia. this after shares already fell by half last year and amazon had its slowest growth in 25 years could the stock with just one sell rating on the street be past its prime time for a bull/bear debate. our bull is james, and our bear is barton crockett james, i'll start with you you remain a steadfast bull. this must be driving you crazy, this underperformance. >> no question that amazon is in the penalty box. even we put it in the penalty box where we trimmed our position last quarter and looking to add back once we get better clarity on where estimates will ultimately land

the company made missteps. we're not seeing the margin as soon as we thought we would. and at the same time, jassy says it's a number one priority cost cuts and right sizing the margin structure of the business but it did get hit with a double whammy with powell and bringing consumer discretionary fears on that side of the equation. but i think for the near term, there's myopic focus on the aws segment and we think that's just the cyclical nature of the beast given the scale it has i don't think really it's a share shift necessarily, but i think estimates will drop here in the near term and should help accrue benefits in the stock over the coming months but it is in the penalty box, but that doesn't change the long term secular opportunity within amazon for sure. >> barton, your hesitation has been vindicated. why do you think it's taking the market so long to come around to the idea that the stock is a little broken? the analyst community remains

extremely positive >> look, i think that amazon is a great company. i have a neutral rating, $106 price target but i think expectations are really high. one of the things where expectations probably need to come down is web services. and that gets to the comment that wus as just made that this just a cyclical slowdown we'll see. i think that you're seeing some of the biggest customers, the web services, the streamers, the internet companies, the snaps, the netflixes, mature. they're not growing. snap is talking about margin opportunities from its web contracts which are google and amazon we're seeing a lot of that i think the web services companies are investing in big companies like the exchanges to get deals. we're seeing competition from google that's funding big losses that could be disruptive over time to the margin structure of this industry. look, no doubt more computing is going to the cloud

but does it grow at a 30% pace when it's very early days or does it slow down to mid-teens that what we're seeing is the new normal i submit if the macro remains challenged that could be the new normal and that's a headwind for amazon stock >> you're both talking about cloud, but even as sentiment is reaching a low on the stock, i'm getting stuff at my door in three hours, two hours these days are consumers going to wake up and say i didn't realize it had this potential >> the service is improving and the strength in that, just as you pointed out, is proof in point. but i really think on the aws side, it doesn't have to continue to grow at the 30% plus range. as long as it can grow 15%, 20% at that 30% margin, there's huge opportunity. you slap a ten times multiple on the aws basis on a trailing basis, that's $800 billion in tralue relative to a market cap of $980 billion. so what's the retail business worth today? arguably, more than $180

billion. and keep in mind, this was a company marching back toward 20% growth last year in the third quarter of 2022, they posted 15% growth obviously, powell threw a wrench in things, but i think you really have to zoom out on this one at 1.7 times sales, the risk/reward is there >> i love the analysis i have three seconds left here so i'm going to say good-bye to be continued. our bull/bear debate on amazon that does it we don't have time to tease anything except "power lunch," and who is that? who is that man in the jacket? is that joe kernen we'll see you after this real zero energy is coming... and yes, that means cutting carbon emissions... but it also means cutting costs. because now clean energy is more affordable energy. we've been investing in american infrastructure for thirty years... lowering electricity costs today, and protecting from volatile energy prices tomorrow. so walk with us—

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welcome to "power lunch. i'm joe kernen alongside kelly evans. i'm in for tyler today, and an interesting, if you haven't been here, we have no camera. >> welcome a