my roots and see, yet again, we have something that's going to move the needle not only for patients with cardiovascular disease but also with pulmonary hypertension as a cardiologist i am super thrilled. >> and there you have it. >> potentially big move for merck. >> thank you very much meg tirrell with the latest there. >> we're out of time. >> thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, joe. thanks so much welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner from post nine at the new york stock exchange this make or break hour begins with stocks trying hard to eek out another gain here's your scorecard of where things stand with 60 minutes to go in regulation the dow up all day weakening, though, throughout the session. interest rates turned around, perhaps getting ahead of the fed chair's testimony on capitol hill tomorrow you can see the s&p still hanging on to positive territory as well. two dow stocks primarily the

story today. merck on positive new drug data as you heard and apple, which has been on a tear lately up 6% or so in just the past three trading days leads us to our talk of the tape apple's breakout continues and is it a sign the rally can too let's ask jonathan crinski welcome back the question of the moment is apple's run sustainable? >> good to be here we don't think so. a couple key points we start with first, you know, in absolute terms the 156 level for apple has been so critical at turning points over the last 18 months, all the way back to the fall of 2021 where it initially topped out. it then acted as support several times in early '22 and then, you know, lately it's been acting as resistant, topped out last fall in october, again in february, so, you know, it seems to be this crucial pivot point today's move felt a little

exhaustive to us, gapping up after two up days, i think on a new analyst note, but it puts it at the down trend from the august highs and, you know, these type of gaps in this market tend to get filled. it's not a breakaway market where you get these upside gaps and they continue to the upside. it's a market where really gaps in both directions tend to get filled pretty quickly. so we expect this to be kind of the tactical high here for apple. >> you draw the line or the relationship between apple and the small caps, and i'm wondering if you can explain why and what the relevance could be between the biggest stock in the market and a couple thousand ones >> this stood out this morning an it was a bit wider, apple beating the russell 2000 by over 5% which is the biggest -- i'm sorry on a two-day basis, beating small caps on a two-day basis, biggest such move in the last year. the only two other dates that

were even close were september 20th of last year and february 3rd of this year, both of which, you know, did see some fairly decent downside on the indices following that the sample size of 2 is pretty small but the takeaway here is that we're not seeing the bred you would expect we're seeing the opposite where the 2,000 stocks, the majority of stocks are down today i think it feels like you had a decent two-day rally last week today didn't get the follow through necessarily and felt like back to kind of the 2020 days where a handful of the f.a.a.n.g. names were doing the heavy lifting and to us that suggests it's kind of, you know, this rally is feeling a bit on its last legs. >> okay. we'll leave it there jonathan, thank you very much. that's john tlan crinsky. let's bring in adam to see what he makes of what mr. crinski said

you're not a believer in the move higher we've had in stocks anyway, right? >> well, i mean, i think the data points we're looking at from rates to speculation to valuation to earnings expectations all look worse than three months ago with apple, i don't know enough about two-day technicals to dispute what he said. >> the biggest stock in the market having what looked to be some kind of breakout is not insignificant to you. >> no. i think the market ripped in the q4 up 5, 6% and this was down and now it's up a ton and caught an upgrade from a big firm it's up today. i don't think that means it's in better position. i mean, i looked at apple a lot lately actually, and one thing that really surprised me is, in the last ten years, their net income has only grown 9% a year. right. if you told me ten years ago it was going to grow 9% a year i'm not sure you and i would have said it was a growth stock they bought back 40% of the shares and it's been a monster, but looking forward to me, in a

longer term view, i don't know how i could like that versus like the energy sector which is the same size. so, you know, it depends on your horizon and what you're trying to accomplish when you invest. >> how do you size up the next 13 trading days? you have powell on the hill and all eyes on that and maybe the fact that yields turned around today to move higher maybe trying to get ahead of what could be more hawkish testimony from chair powell tomorrow, but then you have the jobs report, cpi, ecb, fed decision 13 critical days. >> yeah. i think the risk-reward, look, we wrote in our note you saw this week what is the bull case? we're going to end 10% higher in the s&p and want to deploy fresh capital round numbers i have to believe in something close to 4500 at year end, what is that bull case? i need sort of slowly declining inflation. i need the fed to get less hawkish but pause and not data

get worse. i need sort of input costs to come down so the companies can expand there's a lot of if i need i need positioning to think things will be better in 2024. feels like the risk-reward skewed to the negative to walk in today and get very excited given how much worse the data looked three months ago. >> fed done soon, inflation down faster than people think, earnings not as bad as feared. it's that hard to put that story together. >> i think it is if the fed is going to get dovish, i think that's going to happen because the economy and earnings are going down. >> what if they don't get dove ir they get donish. >> that's what people want we had 20 something meetings, couple dinners with investors last week. what do you think the bull case is you know, it was tough the fed getting out of the way what does that mean? them getting out of the way mean you think they're pausing because we're in the goldilocks zone of data on inflation and jobs anything is possible but that isn't the highest probability

outcome. the highest is they stay hawkish until they can handle the services and wages part of the economy. >> you think the macro gets worse as we progress is like jpmorgan is talking about. he's one of those trying to be bullish last year in the face of a lot of negativity and as i've been saying, saw the writing on the wall and now expects the macro to deteriorate wrote today one strong day or week in risk does not change our outlook on weakening macro fundamentals >> we have the same view, erode not implode, not sure 24 earnings will be above 23. i think the 24 numbers out are out and 11.5% earnings expectations we will have meaningful revisions downward, i don't see a fiscal stimulus incremental or monetary policy, so i need earnings to do well. i think things are okay and i can find things that will outperform in an eroding backdrop i don't see how somebody can say

the probability economy improves is better than -- higher than the probability that deteriorates. >> no one is going to come out and say it's going to improve. but i feel like the base case has become okay, well we can get a soft recession, i mean, you don't have to have the whole thing -- what if it doesn't get worse? >> i think the part least compelling -- i hear you the part least compelling is simply i can buy, you know, after tax on a -- whatever duration i want, six months to two years, something yields close to 4.5 after tax maybe that's guaranteed, you know, equities don't look that compelling unless i really believe the multiples are going to expand a ton or earnings will surprise to the upside i'm not in the camp earnings surprise to the upside the multiple a bit of a gamble and comes down to perceptions about the fed. it's that simple earns or the multiple. >> that's still the biggest problem for equities and for stock investors that the bond

market is too much an attractive alternative? >> i think so. for a lot of people it's first time in their investing lifetime. >> money markets too. >> last may, that's when people like me started lattering investments. i used to have cds and now i have a treasury schedule. >> doesn't it giving you pause everybody is on the same side of the boat as you said at the top, you talk to people -- >> that's the biggest bull case every top guy down has a maximum of 4200. you know, just because everyone knows i'm glig doesn't make me handsome sometimes it is what it is like the earnings expectations are high, the rates up a ton, perception about rates up a ton, the valuation from below 15 times in october to 18 and change times now speculation is rampant ton up from lows the only thing is a little bit of positioning and that's tough to play for that, you know,

dream that i guess, you know, i buy my little dream today, sell it to a sucker with a bigger dream later. that's getting harder. >> when do you know it's time to play for the other side of what we're in at some point you do. >> that's right. you have to believe that earnings or margins can surprise to the upside or the balance sheet sheet can be massive we've been hammering on metal, inventory is low, expectations low and they're pretty cheap i think that's a good risk-reward. i'm worried about areas that everyone loves the stocks, a big inventory problem and/or, you know, i need to believe the economy -- >> retail like discretionary led year to date >> it has because it got crushed last year and q4 was probably -- >> the consumer holding in. >> at the low end. a lot of those stocks that missed one of the things about retailers in particular, even the ones that traded seven times earnings when they miss the stocks don't go a lot. i don't that -- you want stocks to miss and not go down. then you say okay, now the bad

news is in the price somehow they show better progress, so i haven't seen stocks that are cheap miss and hold in. >> we -- >> in consumers. >> in consumers. i'm glad you make the distinction. we have had stocks that initially went down on earrings and then - >> then -- >> yeah. that's a positive sign you want to look for? >> i think it's -- yes i would say that's right particularly with cyclicals or businesses where you're trying to gauge the inventory some of the ones like apple, 80% of its returned are explained by macro factors and flows, it's not people's view of the fundamentals are way better. i don't know how somebody could argue that, you know, it's worth whatever the analyst said 30% more they're saying $50 7 -- $750 billion more that's a lot of wood to chop. >> you don't think the fundamentals of apple are better than the fundamentals of an industrial, for example, in what is likely to be a slower economy? >> i think it depends on - >> bet on one versus the other

>> if you're bearish you're making a relative call on achievability in a six month view oil and gas exposure, agriculture, some will be pretty good it depends on the end market i struggle with the long-term market, the jig is up. if i can look at the businesses, the energy sector, 5%, apple at 5%, i'm taking the energy sector every day of the week. >> you take a cat or deere over apple? >> those have other businesses besides oil and gas. i will take -- >> you said ag that's what made - >> and the industrials have end market yeah that could be right. >> what about -- why isn't energy sfwhorg. >> working. >> the last three prints look high on inventory and people are worried about that i would have thought a possible catalyst could be china's gdp guidance over the weekend. it didn't come up to be an upside surprise, so that was one of the things that maybe could have gotten us a little bit more

positive looking for bull cases. it could have been, you know, evidence that they're going to manage the economy to a higher recovery than people thought they put a little bit of water on that fire over the weekend. i think ultimately the call on energy is a simple one capital spending of the biggest 120 companies is way lower demand will hold in. you will have higher prices. if you want to make a high probability bet that gold weight consumers will spend more on energy related items over 2, 3, 5 years. that's almost a certainty. >> it's good having you here. >> always good. >> thanks for coming back. >> adam parker joining us. let's get to our twitter question of the day. should you fade apple's rally? head to at cnbc "closing bell" on twitter to vote in the meantime a check on some top stocks to watch as we head into the close kristina partsinevelos is back with that. >> dax kron biggest lagger

makes glucose monitoring systems for diabetes patients and the fda cleared abbott labs for a rival glucose monitor. you're seeing dexcom shares. and secondly the entire semiconductor sector is lower today with the exception of micron up almost half a percent at the moment. not even it's falling now the stock beaten down last week. you can see possibly some people buying in. marvell technology, you're seeing on your screen down 4.5%. there are a few analyst price cuts after its earnings came out last week. the chipmaker warned they are still dealing with an inventory correction scott? >> all right thank you. see you in a bet. just getting started on "closing bell. up next, trading snap surged have you seen the social media stock? it is jumping big time better than 11%. lawmakers, well they reportedly have a plan to ban tiktok in the u.s. we'll debate what that could mean next for that space and

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we're back shares of snap surging today better than 11%. lawmakers said to be preparing legislation to ban tiktok here in the united states senate intelligence committee chair mark warner says he's planning to introduce a bill as early as this week and now a new report moments ago that the white house itself is

considering pushing congress to give it more legal power to deal with tiktok and other tech companies that could expose sensitive data to china. let's bring in alex and casey, both cnbc contributors guys, it's great to have you back and it's been a minute. good to see you. alex, you first, you have these two stories now. mark warner, the senator ready to introduce a bill as early as this week and now the white house leaning in too what do you make of it >> it is a big deal we now have democrats starting to step in and saying this is something they want if warner introduces the bill that could signal there's bipartisan support here. i think something we need to talk about the federal government has been in negotiations with tiktok on some assurances that it can get in order to allow it to keep operating in the u.s so we might be seeing here with the white house getting involved just labor of posturing on behalf of the white house and federal government saying we are going to these negotiation, concessions they want to extract and that's what's happening here it's a pressure game.

>> casey, posturing, concessions or outright ban? what do you think is the most likely scenario here >> well, i have to say that as the weeks go on, i think a ban is looking more likely more likely than i think most people are giving it credit for. this is something that has bipartisan support it's the rare issue in tech that does and so i think if the biden administration really wants to ban tiktok, they're about to have legislation that could actually come to the president's dh desk that would accomplish that. >> do you think that's the likely outcome as well >> i do not. i think we're heading into an election cycle, 2024 and senator mark warner said this in his comments, tiktok used by 100 million americans for 90 minutes a day. that means tiktok is more popular than congress, more popular than the president in some ways. if you ban it, that could cost votes in some very important battleground states from people who are angry at you taking away

their entertainment. this is entertainment for people above all else so, you know, for me personally i would say it doesn't seem likely this is going to happen and if it does, it's going to be a costly move politically and would be shocking to me. >> so it's funny, casey, here we are looking at snap having a huge day we haven't mentioned that company as related to the tiktok stories which we just discussed for a few minutes. i mean, what do you think the ultimate impact is here for a snap is this a gain in stock that just is unsustainable? it's a moment of euphoria thinking one piece of their major competition is going to be banned because i can still think of, you know, youtube and i can still think of facebook reelz, et cetera. >> yeah. look, we know what happened in india when india banned tiktok and the other short form video

platforms did see a spike in use, youtube shorts and facebook reelz. i don't think it's irrational for investors to think, if a ban were to take place, snap will be one of the beneficiaries at the same time i think shorts and reelz are befurther along. if tiktok is banned, i suspect those two platforms will see the most immediate short-term benefit. >> alex, what is the state of snap how would you describe it? they come out and say we have 700 million monthly active users, 750 million monthly active users, can get to a billion, cutting costs, we're downsizing the business in terms of layoffs what is the state of that company today? >> the good thing i would say about snap it's focusing on the core business now. we're not hearing so much about

drones or other science projects, we're hearing about the company focusing on what snap is and making things available like snapchat plus that will appear to creators and has 2 million people subscribing to it. however, i think most of snap's growth in the u.s. and north america in particular has started to tail off and you're starting to see a lot of international growth they're starting to corner the market on people 25 and under and haven't really been able to break through past that and haven't been able to build the ad platform that's going to allow them to reach the mass population i think snap is kind of in a holding pattern. all that being said it's not going to be in the same league with facebook and instagram or even tiktok and, you know, we're going to have to see major changes if it's going to start to play in that game when i see these gains off of the tiktok ban they're surprising to me those ad dollars will go to youtube and instagram if things continue as they stand today. >> casey, speaking of playing in bigger games, what do you make of the new chat bot that snap is talking about? legit? is it just jumping on the

bandwagon of a.i.? how do you see it? >> i've been playing around with it a little bit this weekend and it's fine. it's not really any better than the version of chatgpt you can already get for free on the chatgpt website. so look, i do think that they're probably a bunch of bored teenagers who will enjoy having a virtual friend in their pocket and lot that snap can do with that, but man, over time, i don't know that that's sort of thing is going to be able to sustain a $4 a month subscription these things going to be available in a lot of places for free. >> appreciate it as always casey and alex coming up, our next guest highlighting one part of the market she says has gone from uninvestable to unavoidable. jpmorgan's gabriela santos makes her case throughout march we are celebrating women's heritage, showing stories of women, leaders and business and teammates and contributors here is the ceo of ventas.

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we're back from uninvestable to unavoidable how my next guest is describing the opportunity in china saying it's time to lean into the growth upturn. joining me at post nine, gabriela santos of jpmorgan

asset management. >> nice to see you, scott. >> that's a statement uninvestable to unavoidable. have we really gotten there? >> for the past two years uninvestable had become a buzzword when talking about china. we had a 64% correction in the equity market. interest rate differentials started to turn in the u.s. favor. really the rewards weren't worth the risk of thinking about a china strategy there was a liability of having a china line item in a statement. i think this year, with the 60% rally we've seen off the october lows, and with this massive growth upswing that we're expecting in china's economy and earnings, it's unavoidable to at least have a strategy about china. whether ultimately that is investing directly in china as we would argue we would be overweight chinese equities or whether it's playing that story indirectly through southeast asia or certain european companies, you have to have a strategy

>> a better market performance, a, you know, reopening, doesn't change the lack of trust issue which some investors still have no matter what happens how do you deal with that? >> yeah. we recently released our guide to china and there we make the argument there is a very powerful story to invest in china. it's the reopening, it's also the broader pro-growth turn that china has taken, which usually tends to last a couple of years, it's also the expectation that there's a lot of alpha to be added beneath the sfurface post initial first wave of covid reopening. ultimately we still make the case that this is the same china. you still have to have a limit to exactly how much china you can add directly because it will continue to come with double the volatility for some clients, ultimately the decision is not to invest in china directly, play it indirectly through other

emerging markets in developed countries like europe. >> some of the neighbors, if you will, do i feel like i can get similar upsized returns with lower volatility and lower risk by playing the region? just playing it elsewhere? i don't have to worry about the regulatory and other issues that are out there. i bring up what jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon said last week, the thing i worry most about is ukraine and our relationship with china that is much more serious than the economic vibrations we all have to deal with on a day-to-day basis. >> i think we'll continue having this underlying vibration over the next century, which is a mix of competition, at times diplomatic tension between the u.s. and china, which ultimately means there's a level of volatility or premium associated with investing in china directly when it comes to public markets, something that's liquid and you can get in and out less of a concern where we've seen some changes from our clients more in

terms of private markets where there is liquidity on a longer term horizon when it comes to playing china indirectly, i think the reopening theme, yes, you can access with other em countries which by no means don't have issues of their own, but certainly you can play the reopening theme, the return of chinese tourists through singapore, thailand, vietnam, korea, and developed countries like japan and sgeurope. >> i had a guest who had a similar thesis and you alluded to it playing the european luxury brands. that's the easiest and safest way to do it i know you don't pick stocks per se, but that's a basket you would be sfloogts looting act? >> the indirect is through chinese consumption. european luxury companies derive 40% of revenue from chinese consumers alone and there's a benefit of chinese consumers

being able to go to back to paris, milan, they don't need to pay taxes like when they buy the luxury items domestically. that's an interesting opportunity and we don't feel like that's fully priced in quite yet. >> let me turn your attention to here at home u.s. markets, 13 days that are especially critical, how we've been kind of thinking about things today, beginning tomorrow, fed chair on the hill, jobs report, cpi, dfed decision couple days move in the market that made people feel better how do you see it? >> i mentioned and we started off talking about china because we have a conviction on the turn in the macro direction, something that can carry us over the next couple of years, and it was reiterated at the national people's congress, focus on growth in the u.s., there's much less visibility on the cyclical macro picture. every client we speak to has very low conviction on the macro picture. >> right. >> every guest we speak to by the way. >> exactly

there's just a certain lack of human humidity humility we need to have when thinking about the hard landing, soft landing within u.s. equities we don't feel it's the stime to take a bg stance where we feel there is conviction in the u.s. macro picture, no landing is not a steady state the fed will not tolerate higher inflation for longer what that means is one way or the other inflation should normalize and ultimately why we do feel -- have conviction on bonds. >> it's a matter of how we get there. >> it is a matter of how we get there, which the kind of the journey does matter for stocks. >> yeah. for sure we're learning it's not linear for certain the way some people might have thought it's going to be more bumpy and volatile. >> confusing you add to that the post-pandemic world, the seasonals and makes the next 13

days really key. >> all right good to see you again. >> good to see you. >> back with us post nine. up next, we're tracking the biggest mover as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos standing by with that. >> one bank arguing recent corporate job cuts have yet to be felt across the luxury market and that's sending shares of one retailer down 5% i will have the name and much more after the short break

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got 20 minutes to go until the closing bell rings and we're trying to eek out the gain we talked about we have work to do s&p is flat and the dow, which has been up all day is only 21 kristina partsinevelos back with a look at stocks to watch, the key ones as we head into the close. >> let's start with shares of rh, previously restoration hardware you know that expensive retailer for furnishings. the shares are down almost 5% right now after a downgrade from jeffreys they lowered the price target to $298 on concerns the luxury housing market is struggling to stabilize and that recent job and compensation cuts really haven't been felt across the luxury furnishing sector they cite march 2023 investment banking bonuses that fell 30 to 50%, which is why they are

moving to the sidelines for this name natural gas stocks are in the red today after nat gas posted the worst session since last june comstock and cheniere in negative territory we'll hear from the baker hughes ceo on closing time. tune in. >> we will thank you very much. kristina partsinevelos last chance to weigh in on our twitter question j should you fade apple's rally. we'll bring you the results after this break

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let's get the results now of our twitter question should you fade apple's rally? result, pretty split yes.

is the winner. near 51% of that vote. up next, signs of life in the ipo market looks like one company might be making a big push to go public this year. what that might mean for the world of ipos in the broader market just ahead. when we take you inside the market zone.

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santoli, emily roland on what is one of the biggest mistakes being made on wall street, and bob pisani bond yields turned around. merck and apple, it's a nothing burger >> yes the rest of the market heavy, backing off a little bit, and it does make sense. i wouldn't blame anybody for being slightly apprehensive ahead of powell's testimony not because he's going to come out throwing grenades but the direction of surprise this probably toward more hawkishness versus less reacting to january data at the same time the second half of february seemed like maybe you got a little bit of deceleration in certain things like consumer spending so, you know, the yields hesitating but nudging higher putting a two-day rally on standstill i wouldn't say we've really changed anything, but you want some benefit of the doubt the way the market gathered itself at the end of last week and see if they can do anything. >> merck moved on newest

apple just moving. >> with an upgrade. >> with a buy rating. >> up 6% in a few trading days it was on the move before today, it was sort of the last push higher, but you heard jonathan said, not sustainable. >> well, apple has always been the kind of stock that seems to have a sprint toward the end of a broad market rally i'm not saying that's necessarily the pattern right now, but that is the case, that sometimes people just grab at the obvious. i don't know that that invalidates what else is going on what you're also seeing today is i think, just normal pullbacks in some of the more hot areas of the market materials, industrials, backing off just a little bit, and consumer cyclicals those have been the leadership areas. a little bit of, you know, maybe a splash of cold water from the china growth expectations took down global mining related stocks that's been right at the center of that strong cyclical upside trade. >> emily, john hancock investments, one of the biggest mistakes being made on wall street you say is what

>> hey, scott. i think there's an element of complacency setting in. mike hit on this a little bit. when you look at the cross-asset leadership as of late, we're back to the high beta cyclical, almost speculative corners of the market and look at areas like european equities out performing small cap stocks, industrials, materials, even high yield bonds and bank loans on the credit side this is markets telling us there's basically zero probability of a recession and to us, i can't give you the exact number, i would love to, but it's way higher than zero here we do still think that lag impact of fed tightening will do damage to corporate earnings and crimp margins and cost challenges to the labor market and the consumer here. markets are acting like everything is awesome. i just think that they're maybe not appreciating the fact that fed policy does work with long and variable lags. >> what does that suggest and where do you think we're going on the s&p 500

>> i mean, we would be trimming into strength in these wispier pockets of the market and redeploying cash into more defensive areas, higher quality parts of the market. a lot of talk of the tech sector today. you're going to find a lot of that in areas like large cap growth these are companies with great balance sheets, lots of cash on their balance sheet, good return on equity and a limited need to tap the capital markets to grow. so we like that. then we're also just doing the math on stocks versus bonds right now and you look at the equity market, it's tough to see a big sort of bounce higher here given the fact we're trading at 18 times forward earnings, given the fact that there's a generous -- that's a generous multiple earnings estimate one of your guests earlier talked 11.5% earnings estimates for next year. we think that's going to be tough. we want to be selective there. bonds, we're loving the income on bonds today 5, 6% on investment grade corporate bonds. locking that in for a long

period of time we think that's a really competitive and compelling option given some of the challenges to the macro economic backdrop. >> i'm confused, though. you don't believe the move that we've seen in certain sectors of the market you're, obviously, cautious but want me to hang out in large cap growth >> large cap growth is really where you're going to find quality. now, by the way, i'm not loving mid and small cap growth that's where you're going to find a lot of unprofitable companies, not a lot of quality there. these are companies that are really sort of growth at any price, companies that need to engage in the capital markets. we're not loving that. but, frankly, the boring old s&p 500 tech sector, that's where you're going to find that quality. lots of cash, good return on equities more durable profitability. when going into a global economic slowdown we have to figure out where the best relative opportunity is and on the equity side we would be thinking about that. we like mid cap value on the

other side of the house. >> well, interesting call. emily ashgs appreciate your time very much. emily roland bob, we're getting some life, much needed life, back in the ipo market >> do we need it the chipmaker arm providing excitement in more of an ipo market the chipmaker eyeing an $8 billion ipo from $20 billion to $70 billion, call it $50 billion and split the difference reportedly passing on the chance for a dual listing with the u.s. and london, now just opting for a listing here in the u.s. $8 billion ipo would be the fourth biggest one in ten years believe it or not after alibaba's record $21.9 billion in 2014, rivian 11.9, uber at 8.1, before the green chute. we had a disastrous 2022 the ipo market is still dormant in 2023. look at these numbers. we've only raised $1.8 billion so far in new offerings. an idea of how big arm's $8 billion offering would be, 2022, look at that, only $7.7 billion

in new offerings arm's ipo alone at $8 billion would be bigger than the ipo market in 2022 that's how pathetic it was last year look at the renaissance etf. 60 have gone public in the last two years. disastrous 2022. down more than 50% that's an intraday you're looking at right there it's hard to read through what this means this announcement or proposal for the overall ipo market what ipo market needs right now, stable stock market and lower rates. higher rates are a killer for the ipo market remember, so many of these ipos, they're growth stocks, biotech and tech like arm, that would be negatively impacted by higher rates. they're eager to go the rest of the market hard to read through whether this is a turnaround. >> no doubt. mike santoli is sitting with me here this is almost a special situation ipo and that's the reason we're talking about it now and what is a still very uncertain market with high rates, which bob says is bad.

>> yes often the way it goes whether you got to break one of these logjams in the ipo market, if you have a frozen market, bear market and a motivated seller that really needs to get liquliquid i remember in '09 visa went public because the banks that owned them needed capital. it was a great ipo and you got a reasonable price because it was a hostile market it's not a surprise. what's fascinating, by the way, about the ipo etf it's been so long since there was enough ipos to go into it, a lot of ipos are way older than two years because they haven't been able to refresh the list almost like the vintage of 2020 and 2021. >> part of this, it doesn't necessarily open the big door to other ipos as we said. this one just seems to, you know, the timing needs to help for this now. >> yes i think mike's right they're being motivated by particular need to raise cash and do something in particular everybody else is still sitting out there. i keep asking, every other week

i call my ipo friends, give me a name, tell me something, i've heard nothing. this is the first major one that i've heard in a long, long time and until you get some stabilization in the interest rates scenario, it's tough to say we're going to see big tech ipos coming that don't have some kind of pressing need for cash. >> bob, thanks mike, back to you. i mean, softbank, couldn't do the deal with nvidia, so the next best option is go to the markets. >> they want to monetize the asset, whatever way they can it's probably going to happen in that mode. now, you probably do have some very seasoned private companies -- i mean there's reports out there that strife is trying to raise money privately to raise cash, essentially, to make their employees good on some of their own equity right. so because the market didn't open up enough for them to do an ipo, so all their employees essentially, you know, feel as if they need to be paid for the equity they want out of. that's a really inefficient way

to do it when you can do an ipo. they're not going to be happy with what the fin technology valuations are right now. >> you see companies like goldman which thrive in those environments where deals are ripe and public offerings et cetera they need it as much as anybody else. >> what is happening, though, is one of the biggest starts to a year in terms of corporate bond offerings, even though yields are higher and theoretically the sellers have to pay more there's a meeting of supply and demand at these levels. their capital markets are still pretty flush corporate spreads are still pretty tight it's not as if the system is being starved for capital. it's not coming through equities because you don't have that kind of risk seeking growth capital that normally would be a real eager buyer for ipos. >> the two-minute warning in 30 seconds time i want you to size up for our viewers what you feel is at stake starting tomorrow when the fed chair goes to the hill

it's the first of many events over the next 13 trading days that could decide what happens in this market for a matter of months. >> sure. powell will absolutely have to say that the december outcome of the fed in terms of where rates would go to doesn't really apply right now. it looks stale because they didn't expect strong growth in january. their own projections were for a weaker economy than we've seen so far lower inflation. so he'll have to re-set expectations above the 5.1% terminal rate that they had out there. the market is beyond that. the market pricing in closer to 5.5% they feel the need to drag the sites up to 6% i doubt he's going to front run his own meeting in two weeks and say that there's anything definitive about this. you have to acknowledge both sides while also probably saying, that he doesn't necessarily feel as if you have torpedo the whole economy yet. they've been lucky and able to say we can't rule out a soft

landing, can't say you have to bring unemployment higher to bring inflation down for now, he can thread the needle i think a little bit longer and we're going to be surfing from one inflation report to the next, so that brings up the cpi next week. >> yeah. jobs report next friday. >> before that. >> and then ultimately the fed decision i wonder, it's, you know, look these things are political too in nature when the fed chair goes to the hill he's probable going to get some incoming fire -- >> it's going to be noisy. always is. the non sequiturs and things he's supposed to opine upon. at the core it's about are they progressing towards their goal and what are the lag effects and what do they think the economy is going to do we dial forward the data in which the economy will have a slowdown or a recession because the nonrate sensitive parts of the economy have held up better than anticipated. >> speaking of rates i'm looking at the 10-year, 3.97

it was a midday move in interest rates today that unsettled the stock market if you want to call it that, which was primarily in the green for most of the day. big almost give it all up. nice move here as we head to the close. dow going out with a gain. i'll see you tomorrow. into o.t. with morgan and john >> it is day of faded gains here to kick off what is a very busy week for the markets that's the scorecard on wall street the action just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." morgan brennan with jon fortt. coming up on today's show, evercore founder roger altman with his outlook for deals as another merger comes under the micro he scope of the doj. >> the ceo of baker hughes on a first on cnbc interview in houston as natural gas prices leak lower >> straight to our market pa