defense spending and, of course, the reaction from the hill to those numbers too, but this seems to be an area remaining pretty resilient given the geopolitical landscape. >> every week is interesting on "overtime. >> that will do it for "overtime" on this money. >> "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," bracing for powell, stocks stuck in neutral as they await the two days of testimony. will powell stick to the recent script of higher for longer. plus, tiktok on the clock. a bipartisan pair of senators set to introduce legislation tomorrow that will let the government ban or prohibit foreign technology and products like tiktok, the ripple effect on the tech sector in relation to beijing and big oil's bit on where prices are heading apple's new fan on wall street and the chart master's list of beaten down names he thinks is ready for a reversal of fortune.

tim, karen, and steve grasso here powell on the hill, he's set to face the financial services committee tomorrow and investors keyed in for any indication as to how much higher they'll take interest rates the dow ended up basically flat, nasdaq up a percent ending just in the red rates meantime, ticking back higher the ten-year climbing back towards 4% can powell say anything tomorrow that will put the steam back into the markets we play this game often where i say if you knew what he was going to say, if you knew what the fed speaker would say, do you know how the markets would react and we often say, no, so what do you think, karen >> i think i'm certain i don't know how the markets will react. what i think he will say is higher for longer. that is the path of least resistance actually. and i think until we get any data prolonged data, not just a one-month print, prolonged data

to say that inflation is really under control, or that the labor market has really moved, neither of which we've seen any hint of really that i think we'll just continue with that. >> for a fed that tends to show up to the party later than they should have, they get to the party late which is sometimes fast and late, in this case it wasn't and stayed too long i think the expectation from the markets here, i think they're pretty set in the concept that the fed is going to not change, higher for longer. we have had data over the last couple of months the 517,000 payroll number of a month ago and this friday we have a huge job number, i think, is critical for equities and the markets are listening more we know what the fed's mantra is and get the chorus and the slight dove, slight hawk everybody is saying the same thing and see what happened to fed fund futures it moved from a place where we had 30 or 40 basis points of cutting to a place where we have 15 basis points. move that terminal rate out to

october, the market is telling you that they believe they know the fed is in the game i don't think he will tell us anything new politics really get into play tomorrow and the next couple of days because there are people on the hill that don't want to hear of an overly hawkish fed but i think, you know, they're not going to change the game >> i tend to agree i just think some of the terminology might be different that disinflation word was used and the market found a way to find some dovishness within that so i do want to say the economic data continues to be strong an the labor market and inflation, i think, we all have longer is e mantra going forward but will be more reticent to acknowledge developments that would lead to an eventually pause or pivot i think it's going to be that nuance in terms of him being very cautious in terms of acknowledging developments that would lead us or be interpreted

to lead us to a lower terminal rate that will be front of mind. >> markets seem to believe the higher i don't know if they believe the longer i mean, the idea that there is a pause or pivot in store at the beginning of '24, grasso, that doesn't seem like longer if you think that the rate will be hit in july. that's a matter of months. maybe that's long for some people but i feel like it's not a long time at all. >> right, so a couple of things, so we have to remember, though, that the market when it's hearing from the chairman, the market has been rallying that's a different dynamic than we've had in the past so when powell speaks, the market has rallied. second, he's going to be in front of the senate tomorrow the senate is going to push him dovish he's going to be in front of the house on wednesday the house is going to push him hawkish. so i think he's going to have to thread the needle.

he's never going to be as dovish as the senate wants or as h hawkish as the house wants he has to sort of wade in the middle someplace, and i think other than the fact that the market ran today i would have said it would run tomorrow again on powell's speech so maybe i have it reversed but i think the theme is senate is definitely going to bash him on jobs and make him be -- sound more dovish. >> we've seen a trading range pretty much and i think we've been ping-ponging back and forth. grasso, you've been a big proponent of us remaining in the trading range. i'm wondering if what powell will say will influence either going above or below on that range. >> well, i don't know if it's going to -- again, i think we may be all saying something similar. i'm saying i think the market is taking its cues from what the data is giving us. but i agree with this 38 to 42 range and think 4350 is the bogey that the market wants to

get through. the most encouraging thing is the support you've gotten from megacap tech adding to what i think has been extraordinary breadth. we talked about industrials on friday, transports, i think banks will show very strong numbers in q1 as well. when you layer in what's going on with megacaps you have the 2ri7 triple qs. we'll talk about apple in a little while and apple is the biggest stock so when you have this combination, to me the risk is to the upside not to the downside especially for equity markets holding serve in the last month when we went up 70 bips on rate >> do you think that will play into the willingness to play megatech >> investment. you don't need the put protection when you don't have long exposure. those two things are leading to a suppressed vix there is read-through in those being complacent that 39, 40, 39, 40 level.

the sentiment shifted drastically at a situation where people were underinvested and everyone calling for a bearish market for me i mean, i sound like a broken record but think the risk is to the downside here. the thing that you least expect or that you least want is now a rollover that is the exact opposite of where we were going into this rally. >> i think tim is really right that it's the data and not the fed anymore and so we have some -- we have something going on here. >> all kinds >> might be noise. >> we have some wholesale numbers which could be positive or negative. managers are feeling good and want to have inventory because they believe they'll sell it or look at it as they have excess inventory that they haven't been able to sell, you know, you kind of just -- it's -- what was it,

yaza or yanni. >> what do you see >> yeah. and -- >> arnold harshacht. >> no, the blue/red dress. >> and big employment numbers. >> from more on what to expect let's bring in steve liesman steve. what do you think? what do you think he's going to say? do you think he'll talk about the circumstances for a pivot or pause and say i can't see a pause or pivot happening in the first half of next year? >> no, i think he's going to go out of his way to make sure any doves on your panel don't have any reason to trade. i think there was perhaps some concern coming out of the press conference that, you know, why did the market take it as dovish, maybe because he said that word disinflation 11 ftime.

people understand that to the extent there's risk it's to the upside and i think he will affirm the market pricing which has that october contract up near 545 and almost eliminated by now any cuts by year end and it'll be interesting to me to see if he starts working on the rest of the cuts that are built in, which are now will show you the chart for the first time we put june 2024 on our bar chart we use all the time and that's where the cuts are now built in the question is whether or not powell wants -- i'm not sure he does but it is one area to think about, wants now to shift that bar to the right there or that hump there to the right and make people think higher for longer means well into next year. that is something that bostic said he's looking for. how hard a time does the senate and the house give to powell he's a fed chair coming to the congress who is not meeting his

mandate. has not met his mandate for a year with high inflation, and after one of the most aggressive rate hike cycles in a while, so there should be some probing questions about mr. chairman why aren't you meeting your mandate, and what are you going to do to meet it? i think there was some cogent commentary on the differences between the house and senate, i think he's more likely to get that at the house and the answer -- the only possible answer he has is to do more. i don't think he has any other possible answer. >> there is a line of thinking that because the stimulus lasted for so long and was so large it will take longer for what powell is doing to actually work and i'm wondering if you're hearing this or if the fed officials who address that, because i understand that, you know, this is political theater in large part, so they're going to press him on why he's not meeting his mandate but it's not like he's the only one at the switch here

creating the situation i mean, congress sort of made a very difficult -- they had nothing, you know, they had to do it. they had to do what they had to do but this is the situation >> it is true, melissa and you would think the fed chair under the current circumstances might turn to congress and say, hey, guys, you could help out a little bit. you could cut spending yourselves and try to make things tighter from the fiscal side and increase immigration to try to loosen up the labor shortage but powell has chosen in general not to take that tact of trying to urge policy from congress, so those things that you mentioned are possible but i -- would be helpful, you would think, but i don't think they'll come from powell's mouth you're right, though, that he's doing the best he can. the trouble is, melissa, i keep reading commentary that suggests that it's going to be very difficult for powell to have much impact on the key area that he's most worried about, which is service sector, inflation and there's this increasing concern

that we might have seen the best of the goods disinflation we've seen for awhile so it's a little unclear to me how this inflation gets under control at this point. if goods don't disinflate and service continues to inflate, i think we may have a problem for awhile here. >> hey, steve, tim, in the context of this, do you think that powell could actually push into a little bit of liquidity conditions which have gotten extremely, i would say not soft but certainly relative to one year peaking at 9% when he was on the hill, do you think there could be a dynamic to point out what's going on for politics that are going to lean on him for staying at the party too long, he's going to have plenty to say and in that sense it could be negative for markets and could point out the obvious. we're in a different place we are even than we were in october when the market was looking at conditions whether it was spreads, whether it was equities, whether it was even where you were seeing lending and mortgage rates >> i mean, i am not hearing

right now, tim, that there are a lot of big liquidity concerns out there right now, unless i'm missing something. what has been remarkable about this whole run here, especially with the fed upping the balance sheet reduction to that $95 billion is that things seem to have proceeded relatively orderly. we have had as you know, tim, a massive move in treasuries and unless i'm missing it, tim, which you can maybe fill me in, i'm not hearing about massive dislocation. >> what i was pointing out is it gives powell somage in addition to push back on legislators that have things to worry about with a fed being overly aggressive. he can say, look, the world is a much easier place. if anything we have to be more on the switch. i don't see liquidity issues out there. that's pie point we're in an environment where it is not dried up. we haven't had -- it's not even close.

that's actually very positive for the market >> and you saw those companies go into the market with some ten-year sales and corporate bond sales >> right. >> that were pretty interesting in this environment that suggests there is liquidity out there. >> just quickly before we let you go, do you think he's seen the jobs report? or he will have seen it? no, so i reported this several years ago, there is a piece of the jobs report the fed gets re regarding employment in the manufacturing sector that it gets early and i don't know how that is shared, but i do know he'll get it thursday in the afternoon, so i don't think he's seen it yet, which is an important thing, and i should have noted to the extent he's hawkish he may attenuate comments in case he gets help from the friday jobs report and next week's cpi report i think all indications are he

won't because even if that jobs report on friday is the way it's got to be, half of what it was in january it will still be too strong for the fed. >> steve, thanks steve liesman. for more on how powell's testimony could influence the markets let's bring in head of u.s. equities strategy lori calvacito. i wonder if at least for right now if you're seeing sort of a sweet spot in terms of being able to trade equities from the long side. it feels like a lot of strategists are saying we'll trade the markets that are here and now and right now things look okay and i'm thinking most specifically about mike wilson who has been bearish who is saying right now you can trade what do you think? >> look, i think that, you know, i think we're sort of stuck in purgatory. a lot put bets on last year and

the pause was essentially pretraded back this january but i think investors have their own idea of where earnings growth is going to come in and ready to look forward to 2024 but i think we don't have enough information about 2024 yet from markets to really shift there so i think we're being pulled into the 2023 recession, fed, inflation that are tiff some days we get a little more push towards the 2024 recovery and i think we're stuck and why markets are turning around and chopping right now. >> it's karen. we were talking on the desk about whether it matters what the fed says is it other things that will drive the market what's your opinion? anything that you can say to move the market? >> you know, as an equities strategist i don't feel like i'm necessarily going to get anything substantially new over the next few days, we'll see, maybe i'll be surprised. i do think one reason why in february we started to see the growth trade trade sideways

relative to value again after such a strong januarywas growt got a little expensive and a little bit crowded if you look at the data. there was room for markets to sort of, you know, price in the idea of, okay, maybe we're a little too optimistic on the pause or inflation so i get all that but, you know, i don't know that markets are going to be hanging on every word. we had our dose of hawkish fedspeak and it's about the data to be honest. >> lori, you mentioned pretrading at the pause, december or january, and do you think with the recent backup the market is finally in line and receiving the message the fed has reiterated time and time again? >> i don't think the market was ever ignoring the fed but i do think when we came into january, growth looked very reasonable relative to value and we didn't have a crowding problem in growth so it was okay for markets to look more forward and say, okay, we already priced in the sort of last, you know, chapter of the hawkish fed it's okay to start pricing in

the pause, the transition to something new but then that trade got ahead of its skis so had to east back on that a little bit you know, look, i sort of appreciated steve grasso's commentary in the earlier segment. i'm really frankly more interested in what congress has to say and how heavy they're going to really push the employment side of the mandate over the next couple of days at least in the senate to me that's going to be interesting to see how much that enters into the discussion and how powell responds to that. >> lori, always great to get your take. thank you. grasso, you got singled out for making a cogent comment. >> that a boy. >> nice. >> talking about 5 plus percent that's not politically pa palatable. >> you know, it just comes down to jobs ultimately and it's always politically correct to worry about jobs, so we do have a dual pandate with the fed.

the problem is with these long and variable lags, i just really want to know how chair powell sees that and does that dictate his actions? because if he doesn't, then what -- as tim said before they show up too late they stay too long but if everyone knows this, this is a very cerebral body what are they going to do to avoid that this time i'm starting to hear lastly this argument that earnings are going to be under pressure now because inflation has died down and that was helping earnings so, it's sort of, you know, this circular argument now, are we hoping for inflation to come down so i think he's got a real needle to thread in this he's going to get pushed from both sides of the aisle. i think he's going to stay on message and i think he's actually done an excellent job as of late sending that message and the markets liked it >> all right, coming up, some

magic in merck shares jumping on positive drug results and bringing the details next. keep an eye on apple just how high they see the stock going from here. don't go awhe.nyer "fast money" is back in two. do you ever worry we'll live forever? no, it's literally never crossed my mind. what if we live to like 100? that's 35 years of being retired. i don't want to outlive our money. and i have been eating all these stupid chia seeds! i could totally live to be 100! why do i keep taking such good care of my- since we started working with empower,

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welcome back to "fast money. merck shares going up today. it was the stock's best day since june meg tirrell has more on the results. meg? >> hey, well, this was on two different drug, the first is for a rare heart disease known as pulmonary arterial hypertension. this is a drug that merck acquired when it bout accelern. they had data from a phase 2b trial for a cholesterol pill this is a class of drugs known as pcs-9 inhibitors. they showed they could reduce bad cholesterol by 61% we talked with their chief

medical officer about what this means for treatment. here's what he said. >> targets for optimal lipid management have really, really dropped significantly. and so unfortunately statins have maxed out there is no way to get to a goal in many, many patients without something else, so having another oral medicine that can really drop cholesterol intensively will be a major advantage. >> so jpmorgan puts estimates for both of these drugs and peak sales at perhaps $4 billion a year you can see merck up 4% on the news esperion had cholesterol results over the weekend and dropped 20% on that. that's a less than $500 million market cap stock and amgen and regeneron make the injectable versions and not reacting so much because that market never transpired the way it was expected to when these drugs got

on the market eight years ago. melissa. >> jeffries initiated with a buy, meg, so these drugs factor into the model >> yeah, eah, they're expected to potentially contribute to merck's goal of $10 billion coming from cardiovascular sales and this, of course, is as they're worried about losing patent protection on keytruda in 2028. >> meg, thanks where do we see health care? >> i'm long merck, part of the bristol-myers and abvie. and pfizer pfizer has been a dog so merck has done a great job it's getting expensive if you look back a year ago you could buy this sub-10ish p/e it's much higher the news is good we don't know what it's going to be worth so i wouldn't be buying more here right now. >> i'm long merck and it's been a great two-year run it's outperformed after trading

cheer to pierce and to me the relative value comes back into pfizer all the companies are talking about how they're replacing their pipeline 10 billion is supposed to come from pull moammarry. i actually am nibbling on pfizer and think the chart's come together well at 40 combuks. >> one was showing the global statin market expected to be 18 billion by 2028, which is when the keytruda situation kicks in. another places it in the mid-60s. i can see the logic in terms of looking to shift the adjustable market and heard the ceo talk about limitations around the statins so you're talking about a massive adjustable market globally here and at the same time, you know, we're in the keytruda situation and when it kicks in and the compound annual growth rate expected to be as high as 9% per annum so a market

that allows them to shift the revenue pressure. >> all right, there's a lot for "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> announcer: tiktok on the clock and this party may stop. lawmakers prepping a ban on the chinese video app. what the move could mean for the digital ad space and all the tiktokers out there. but first a big call from the big apple. the stock not the city why analysts are gearing up for huge moves in the tech stock you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. we're back right after this. ♪ at morgan stanley, we see the world with the wonder of new eyes, ♪ helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep ♪

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welcome back 20 "fast money. analysts initiating the tech stock apple with a buy rating calling for a 30% gain over the next 12 months and saying redent product head winds, the base success supports them as a service opportunity. they're up 20% this year karen and i were discussing this note no knock on goldman sachs but i feel i didn't knew anything -- >> not a radically -- >> 5g. whatever >> right >> 30% upside is a pretty -- that's out there. >> i mean, you know, they talk about services revenue and all the reasons why the service revenue even if it's not an additional handset growth that it's this locked in system and they've got all these other add-ons now. that's 40% revenue of the kind that gets a higher multiple because it is somewhat recurring but you put a big multiple on that, take it to the 199, it was

bullish but it wasn't earth shattering to me i'm long i'd probably be out 499 actually >> steve >> yeah, you know, if you remember when apple was on a tear, we were all talking about the 3 trillion mark in price i believe it's 182.86. i wrote that down. we haven't heard much about that they're just dusting off as you said not to be cruel to goldman dusting off everything that the entire street already has said and known. if you look at a chart, apple's charts, they're above all its moving averages currently but just on a spike recently, meta's chart looks the best out of all the majors but we'll start talking more and more about that $3 trillion market cap again and that's going to act as a magnet for the stock so i agree >> you could know all of these

things that are, you know, the pillars of a bull case but may not necessarily agree it will go where they are predicting it go. >> this is an easier call to make when apple outperformed the s&p by 15% since january 3rd and i don't know why we're feeling bad about saying one thing or another about goldman, so obviously -- we've been talking about goldman a lot lately the only wish. but i think the call on apple is interesting. i would push back on saying it's cheap relative to itself it's not cheap depends on are you calling it a services company it's cheap if you're calling it a software company it's cheap if you call it services and that their gross margin will go to "x expect. it's not cheap relative to itself and 5g isn't new. that's the part that's puzzling. >> coming up, calls to ban tiktok going viral in recent weeks. what the latest legislation could mean for the social media

space next and the tiktok talk as shares of snap surge but option traders think it is too good to be true. how they'rplinthame ayg at ne when "fast money" returns. >> announcer: topping the tape is brought to you by pgim. at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on the market, stocking giving back early gains as treasury yields continue to climb and managed to eke out a gain, the s&p up less than 0.1%. nasdaq unable to stay positive breaking a two-day winning streak and some names hovering around all-time highs, the united rentals, steel dynamics and progressive trading near those levels united rental, karen >> yes, i mean, i don't know i like united rentals and talked about their backlog and how the infrastructure has been which we haven't seen yet, this is the most -- this is the most excited about their business i've seen >> but you're sticking with it. >> absolutely. >> meantime, lawmakers preparing legislation that would give president biden the authority to ban tiktok in the u.s., a move that could have huge implications for social media stocks and the digital ad market

kayla tausche joins us with the latest kayla? >> the white house said it's exploring new options to deal with tiktok which has been at the center of negotiation with national security officials over how or whether it can operate in the u.s. administration officials are working with congress on a solution with commerce secretary gina raimondo saying that they've been in touch with the bipartisan senate intelligence committee and the democrat co-chair of that committee senator mark warner plans to introduce a bill tomorrow that would empower the white house to ban the app if it chooses. a senior congressional aide says it see white house support for the bill from a treasury led committee lawmakers have been piling on their own bans, at least half a dozen bills proposed from both sides of the aisle just since the beginning of this year some banning downloads of the app. others potentially penalizing app stores for offering it last year following the first hearing of the select committee on china congressman mike

gallagher who has one such bill told me it should be up to congress to ban it or force a sale >> there always tending to be a divide in the process between certain agencies, treasury tends to have a different view of china than, say, the national security council or dod does, maybe that explains the dysfunction but i think that's all the more reason why congress should step up and legislate a solution to this problem >> reporter: this issue is reaching a fever pitch here in washington melissa, with the buildup to later this month when tiktok's ceo will be in the hot seat on capitol hill >> so, kayla, just asking more about the warner/thune bill unveiled tomorrow, this will give the president the ability to ban u.s. -- to ban foreign tech companies i mean, that sounds, i don't know, it sounds like you're giving him the keys to the castle when it comes to deciding what can exist in the u.s. and what can't. >> reporter: sure and the commerce secretary in that

interview i referenced last week said they're not worried about tiktok, they're worried that tiktok perhaps serves as an exemplar or a type of corollary to other apps that could see an example from that and try to operate here in a similar way. certainly the administration, the prior administration ran into some legal hurdles when it tried to introduce an outright ban of tiktok and so then it pursued the path of pursuing a sale that fell apart some members of congress see that, you know, if you give the white house more power and they want to make an executive decision on this, then perhaps that's the way to go but, you know, really the legislative moves are all over the map, melissa. and ultimately the administration is going to have to figure out where it stands on this. >> kayla, thank you. kayla tausche, a quick programming note we should note senator mark warner will be on "squawk box" at 7:45 a.m. tomorrow. the bottom line is that everybody is trying to find a

way to ban tiktok, right and it's bipartisan. >> sure is >> so you theoretically -- >> these are the perfect conditions for tiktok to be banned the perfect conditions. >> yep >> and yet we're skeptical. >> which is -- >> how should we factor this in? >> i mean judging from the moves today i'm not sure it hasn't been factored into the stocks. i think a sale or for sale or some type of structure, you know, domestically is probably more likely than an outright ban and a real slippery slope start getting into it and look for retaliatory moves from china i'm not sure if it's the best long-term way of going about it. in terms of stock market performance i would expect a snap or meta to outperform on the back of this news if it were to progress into actual legal action. >> it has. meta went 50%.

it's outperformed 53% up to 21 for snap but the story between the companies, i think some of this tiktok headline gives people a chance also to assess the valuations in these names. i would make an argument the social media stocks and have their own issues and know what meta's are and they are the metaverse and snow what snap is and know it's apple ios and where they sit on the advertising funnel but it's ultimately these companies and media companies were sold first on the prospects of recession of the we all know what goes on i think some of this is value coming back into the market. snap, you know, on a sales revenue, not that bad. >> all right, snap shares meantime, close out a huge day on this news but option traders are betting they could pull back soon mike khouw has the action. >> snap traded almost three times its average daily options volume today the busiest contract for the 11 1/2 puts that expire over 32,000 traded for 26 cents a contract

however, i should point out calls did outpace them on balance there were more betting that it could rally through the end of the week than fall, perhaps the put activity was hedging. >> thanks for that, mike for more options action tune into the full show friday 5:30 eastern time. coming up the lowdown on energy brian sullivan joins us on the ground with details. throughout march we are celebrating women's heritage here's deirdre bosa. >> i grew up with three brothers all hockey players one day as i was watching one of their games in a cold arena shivering text to my dad he said why aren't you playing the next week i was on the ice and i learned something valuable just get out there and try you can keep up. i played hockey for years then i carried that empowerment with me in other areas of life and career so my advice for other women is don't sit in the stands you cannot only keep up but you can lead

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crude prices moving above the $80 mark the commodity now back in positive territory for the year. the move comes as top producers descend on houston for the conference brian, you've been talking to a lot of folks today >> a lot on camera and a lot more off camera. i've been asking all kind of the same question on and off, where are oil prices going to go at least the ones on camera if you watched all day they all said they believe oil prices were going higher. we spoke with pioneer and ox dental and schlumberger, spoke with baker hughes. here's what two had to say >> i think prices are in a good price right now. if you're in the 75 to $80 range for oil prices that's a sustainable price scenario for the industry to be -- continue to be healthy. >> i see it as a bottom. we've had everything thrown at

us, a million barrels a day thrown at us and a recession and chinese lockdown and we've been bounced around between 73 and 80 wti so we're definitely at a bottom and the question is, when do we break out? i predict sometime this summer we'll break past 80. wti, on the way to $90 a barrel. >> scott has been more bullish and wrong in some respects but he needed 800,000 plus barrels a day coming online from china or demandwise coming on from china as the summer approaches and heard him say more are flying now than precovid. just drive anywhere so there is a certain sense of optimism but, listen, if you'll be in the business you better be optimistic they've been through 17 recessions in the last 16 cycles so there is a sense of bullishness at the ceraweek conference >> don't miss brian's new show

"last call" that kicks off this wednesday. sheffield who he had played a sound bite from, scott sheffield said the break even was 39 bucks so when you think about that, oil prices are great where they are, even if they drop more. >> the energy sector has become lean and mean and a lot of the break even is paying down debt so if you think about their interest expenses. if you're investing in commodities these are long cycle and long tail. look at the energy cycle, i think it's all about supply and i don't see a lot of supply, again, when paying down debt and payout ratios to your investors are north of 50%, you're not investing in new production and on some level, they used to be punished for this. i think they're being rewarded here. >> it was a good interview he did with scott he said, i think, we're not going to rev up production we are not going through that again. absolutely it was a very sort of firm answer >> yeah, grasso? >> yeah, i think last year was the year where you had a lot of

people who weren't energy investors get pulled into bringing energy equities i think all the equities have topped and they're rounding lower. i think oil is range bound it's probably right around 65 to 100. but if you look at every one of these charts they're all talking about the equities and talking about buybacks which is still public enemy number one on the political front from the white house. i think if you have any profits, lock them in, these equities seem like they're going to be rolling over people are trying to find a reason to buy tech stocks again. last year that wasn't the case >> all right, coming up, the chart master carter worth is channeling his inner animal spirit hel art 'lchout the names when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. an update to the chart master's buys beating down stocks poised to are a bounce. let's bring in carter for a closer look at the names on that list carter >> well, that's right, from time to time we put out sort of master lists for what it's worth, stocks that are either

rebound candidates or breakout candidates but one that is sort of actual or bearish, bullish or heretofor laggards emerging bo bottoming, basing, rising out of the ashes. this is docusign now, basing, bottoming, take a look if you add, for instance, another stock. docusign on its own but then the next iteration if we put in now we have square you're talking about an 80% plus correlation. try sofi they have nothing to do with one another. it's about how money moves in and out of certain stocks, certain asset classes, these are bearish to bullish reversals put in the s&p and see what we have, laggards, and the s&p, again, is a pair of 2s, it's unchanged one month, six month, one year, the same price it was two years ago, the market is sort of dull but this offers an

opportunity to generate it prospectively in a market that's going nowhere. >> what makes the chart, the three charts look bullish to you, because the base doesn't even seem -- you know, what do i know about technical analysis, nothing really except for what you tell us on the show. the bases aren't long. what do you see in these charts that make you think it will turn higher just that they're underperforming the s&p. >> most have so, just remember, i want you to go first, any of you but with your money and i'll come in after. someone, the group, the marketplace is buying these stock, up substantially off lows hard to see on the screen but they are and the price line correlation is bullish so the money flow started to turn them and it's the precondition of shocking weakness and now giving way to relative strength, outperforming the market as it goes sideways that's a good one-two setup for prospective

further gains. >> you mentioned the further names and throw arc at you what do you do with the chart? it's the poster child. >> direct overlay. arc if you were to look on its own advanced above its now rising 152-day moving average and checked back to it and has bounced off that 150 day >> all right carter, thank you. if you had mo time i'd ask you the difference between the two carter, always good to see you steve grasso, would you rather, rather, how many rathers there are in this, sofi, docusign and throw in ark >> yes, so to carter's point, they all look the same, square, they all have the 50-day moving either towards or right at the 200-day so that's your golden cross, shorter term rising above a longer term average. if i had to pick one of these

names that i think you can buy for a longer period of time, it would probably be sofi, but, melissa, you talked about before he talks about the s&p being a pair of 2s but this to me means that the market risk is now in the favor of the bulls where people are willing to go out on that risk curve and start buying names like this again, but you have to have a real steel stomach if you buy these these are very volatile anyways. >> up ne, naxtfil trades ys get e not part of it but the whole upstairs the whole downstairs the whole fridge and the whole secret nap room because is it really a vacation home if you have to share a house with a host? ♪

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>> announcer: final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers. time for the final trade steve? >> now we know how much china increased defense spending, the u.s. will be forced to increase theirs lockheed receives an overwhelming amount of dollars from that lmt. >> bonawyn >> cvx >> tim. >> very springy today, mel, today in your pink

total. more than springtime for the energy companies stay there, tte. >> chairwoman. >> yes, the one social media company that hasn't got the tiktok bump i think is alphabet. google, final trade. >> because of youtube. >> yes >> thank you for clarifying. >> thanks for watching "fast money. see you good evening and welcome to the cnbc special "taking stock." i'm jon fortt. we have an action packed hour. the countdown is on for powell on the hill. the fed chair faces the financial services committee today. the dow giving up a gain of more than 180 points to end the day basically flat the nasdaq up more than a percent at the highs ending just in the red investors keyed into any indication of how much higher the central bank i