it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here are the top "five@5." investors bracing for comments from jay powell when he heads to capitol hill making the case for more rate hikes in 2023. technical recession. that is what brian moynahan lays outs for the future of the u.s. economy and how long the downturn could last. plus, mark zuckerberg's meta cutting costs again. handing out thousands more pink slips as soon as this week.

and xi jinping everything on -- ovffering a rare message to the u.s. and elon musk is giving a targeted examination that is interesting. that is all today, march 7th, 2023 on "worldwide exchange. good morning i'm frank holland. thank you for joining us let's kickoff the hour with the stock futures with the muted day of trading yesterday the dow is looking to extend the win streak to four we have a lot of optimism with the win streak continuing. this is as we await jay powell's testimony on capitol hill. these are his first public comments in more than a month when he told washington he sees signs of disinflation popping up as for the 10-year treasury

which is close to the 4% yield something we continue to watch we are seeing the inversion of the yield curve. 2-year treasury at 4.86. also looking at energy wti crude at $80.50. brent crude is flat at $86 we are also watching bitcoin and ethereum bitcoin is flat. bitcoin is key in recent months. let's get the look at the trade in europe with arabile gumede great to see you over the weekend. >> it certainly was good to see you, frank the market has been one that has been topsy turvy jay powell's fed speech will be quite interesting to note as you put out. i wanted to first quickly touch

on in australia with the reserve bank of australia decided to hike to 3.6% that is the tenth rate hike. however, the rba governor softened the hawkish tone and dropping references to further rate increases further tightening will be needed in order to ramp down inflation as much as possible. as we shift attention to most of europe with the likes of the cac 40 in 40 reach a record high of 7,400. it is below that mark now. on a positive note today general possibleitivity is what are getting. the ftse 100 is to the green a flat tone across most of the indices. interesting where we had seen some numbers come out. we have french protests happening which may float into the market picture as investors look to what exactly is shifting

things along the company front with the likes of totalenergies warned fuel deliveries at the number of french sites have been halted today due to the industrial action 64% of workers are on strike protesting against the government's pension reform. here in the uk, the bakery greggs warns of a pre-tax profit of 143 million pounds in line with expectations held back by rising costs of ingredients and energy a negative picture for them. that is the picture in europe. frank. >> arabile gumede, live in london thank you. let's get the top corporate stories in the u.s. with silvana henao. good morning, silvana. >> frank, good morning meta is reportedly planning a new round of layoffs targeting thousands of positions according to multiple reports,

the cuts could come as soon as this week and follow the last round of layoffs the biggest round in november targeting 13% of the global work force. it is not just meta. atlassi a atlastlassian is cutting 5% the work force as well the ftc is expected to sue over the $13 billion deal to buy black knight regulators are expected to challenge the loan origination software i.c.e. owns ellie mae. and formerly known as weight watchers, ww, says it is buying the obesity drug which would give ww a foothold in the $50

billion obesity drug prescription business. frank. >> silvana henao with the headlines, thank you wall street kicking off a busy few weeks of market with jay powell's two-day testimony before congress today. investors are searching for any clues of the policy move and take on high inflation this as brian moynahan gives his outlook for the u.s. economy saying it will likely enter a technical recession starting in the third quarter of this year his view is interest rates likely falling in the second quarter of 2024. moynahan adding the three quarters of negative growth is led by a corporate slowdown with contractions ranging at 0.5 and 1% joining me to break it down is michael sheldon. great to have you on chief investment officer of hightower. >> good morning. >> i want to get to the comments

from brian moynahan. what do you think of the technical recession he believes will happen later this year? >> i think economists and investors are rarely been this divided on the outlook for the economy and investors fall in two camps. soft landing camp with the decline in inflation, but not economy and then the hard landing camp our feeling is that there are headwinds. there are signs to watch out there. for example, the yield curve is inverted right now the leading economic index has continued to go down watching this, the u.s. consumer is on good footing that represents something important. the consumer represents 2/3 of the overall economy. starting off this year, there is positive momentum. a blockbuster january jobs report the retail sales numbers were

strong ism services index has come out and above 55 for two straight months right now, things look okay. there are headwinds. we could see weakness in the economy for the year. >> michael, i danced around it do you agree with brian moynahan is your strategy the thought we enter some recession technical or otherwise >> the odds are in the favor we have further weakness this year and possible recession remember, in the first two quarters of last year, we he had two negative quarters of gdp that is the household definition of recession we didn't have weakness in many other parts of the economy this time around, we are seeing weakness in sensitive parts of the economy like housing and manufacturing. the key will be if we start to see weakness in the u.s. consumer for that, it is most important to watch the weekly jobs numbers which are an indicator each

thursday morning >> you look ahead to the monthly jobs number. you mentioned the jobs report. it shocked everybody powell's testimony or that friday jobs number which is bigger in your mind >> they are both important in different ways powell needs to talk tough and indicate that the job is not done yet the markets are pricing in 5.5% short-term fed fund rate that is higher than the 5% rate we started the year with right now. powell has to indicate the job is not done yet. i think that could put pressure on the markets ultimately, powell will say the markets and fed are data dependent. i think that will be okay for the markets to handle. we get to friday's jobs report, jobs gained 369,000 job per month. it is normal to expect slowing as the market is reaching full employment if we get a number above

250,000, that could put pressure on interest rates this friday with a number under 200,000 is the number the market is looking for. >> we are back in that scenario where good news is bad news and not so great news. michael sheldon, thank you for being here >> thank you. when we come back on "worldwide exchange, " oil breaking above $80 and xi jinping has a direct message to u.s. policymakers we are live in beijing with the latest on his rebuke. and more ahead of the jay powell testimony on capitol hill and why his uphill battle away from the combination that may just be beginning. a very bus y hour when "worldwie exchange" returns. stay with us any questions, chris? all good, thanks maura! healthier is managing all your family's prescriptions

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gas prices are inching higher. aaa has $3.40 a gallon for regular. 60 cents below what it cost at the same time last year. let's talk about this with denton cinquegrana. >> thank you for having plme on. >> we talk about china reopening and slower gdp the fed continues to hike rates here in the u.s. and fears of demand destruction which is a bigger impact on the oil market that we see is range be bound >> we have to remember with oil that it is still a global market at the end of the day. the market bulls are putting all of their eggs in the china basket and summer driving season in the u.s the demand growth argument is winning for the time being like you said before, we are in

a tight range. from low 70s to the 83 level yo mentioned earlier. >> the united states is a net exporter of oil, but importer. an interesting situation at the same time. how much does u.s. demand drive the global market with the russian crude out there? >> the united states is still a significant demand house for oil as you described we do import more oil than export it is a little bit because of a mismatch refineries on the gulf coast ru heavy and sour crude what we production in texas is a lighter crude that is exported and used in better refineries. we are always going to be the importer on crude and exporter

on refined products. as we get into the summer driving season, it will be interesting to see what happens because there has been a little bit of ev penetration and impact on gasoline demand, but the cars we drive now against the cars years ago are more fuel efficient. don't rule out working from home a lot of folks working from home i'm one of them. the impact that has on the gasoline demand. >> absolutely. i think it would fewer people on public transit i think the big question the audience wants to know is where is oil prices for the first quarter and the rest of the year will we get back to $120 a barrel from last year or are we heading in a different direction? >> i don't think we get to $120 levels if you remember, it was the week the market became untethered

from the reality based on the loss of the most significant oil producer in the world, russia, and that never happened. there is a shot at triple digits, but it would be short lived. that makes the summer driving season for 65 cents or 15% below where we were this time last year when we get to june, mid-june, up $5 a gallon, don't be surprised to see retail gas prices a dollar cheaper. >> that would be surprising. denton cinquegrana, thank you for waking up with us. i appreciate the insight >> thank you. coming up , big changes set to come to onean cdy bar and

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welcome back to "wex." the baiden administration is set to increase taxes for some americans. the proposal would increase the medicare tax rate on earned and unearned income on those making

above $400,000 joe biden says the budget released will make medicare solvent without cutting a penny benefits we will continue to follow that story on cnbc. turning to china xi jinping wrapping up the anynational people's congress. eunice yoon is joining us from beijing with more on the story eunice, sharp words from xi jinping. >> reporter: absolutely, frank we are learning that xi and the communist party will take greater control over very important aspects of the economy. the finance industry and corporate and consumer data and technical development. the economic management is more under control. state media has been reporting

the details of the reorganization of the government as well as the relationship between the party and state. the way this will work is the communicst party will take greater control of the top governing body called the state council. the council will have more direct oversight over a new consolidated financial regulatory agency. this agency will now have oversight over the banking and insurance sector it looks as though not the securities industry. the council is going to have greater control over data through a newly established bureau to manage the data here thirdly, the science and technology ministry is going to be reformed coming directly under the state council. the point, according to state media, is to mobilize the national resources to pursue technical development and accelerate the achievement of self reliance and technology

which has been a very important goal of xi jinping this plan is to be voted on friday the outcome is given, frank. i think what investors have to watch for now is what this means in terms of the economic professionalism of china because up until now, china has really been famous for being professional and pragmatic when it comes to economic policy. that is one of the reasons multinational companies have come here. now that has been called into question because of zero covid and other policies like the tech crackdown. >> absolutely. i want to circle back to the comments from xi jinping the u.s. and china relations have left a rational path. that is what he is saying. what about the foreign minister? >> reporter: he is echoing what xi jinping said. the foreign minister, the former chinese ambassador to the united

states, he held his first briefing in the job at national people's congress. for any hope that the tone coming out of the diplomatic corps would soften a bit has been dashed. he was very harsh toward the u.s. i think the key take away is that this is the first time we heard a direct response from china at such a high level that u.s. claims that china could be considering military support for russia in the ukraine crisis he said that he completely denied that. he said the blame is unacceptable frank. >> eunice yoon live in beijing thank you. time for the check on the other headlines outside the world of business with frances rivera live in new york with the latest good morning, frances. >> frank, good morning we start with the fbi offering a

$50,000 reward for information leading to the return of four american citizens kidnapped at gunpoint in mexico on friday this took place in the city of metamoro a law enforcement official with knowledge of the matter tells nbc news that this is a case of mistaken identity and the four are not suspected of criminal activity. a passenger trying to open a plane's knowledge door exit and attacking the flight attendant on united flight from boston the 43-year-old tried to open an exit door. when the flight attendants confronted him, he tried to stab one in the neck with a broken spoon. fellow passengers tackled and subdued him until the plane landed he is being held on federal charges. halle bailey revealed the

little mermaid doll. the star announced the launch on instagram saying the little girl in me is pinching herself o i can't believe it the film is set to premiere nationwide on may 23rd frank, those are the headlines back to you. >> frances rivera, thank you very much. straight ahead here on "wex," rivian hitting a road block this morning we will have more coming up. if you missed us, you can catch us on l alof your favorite podcasting platforms stay with us custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market

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from the company that powers more businesses than anyone else. call and start saving today. comcast business. powering possibilities. it is 5:30 a.m. in new york city we are just getting started here on "wex. the dow and s&p notching the first multiday gains futures suggesting modest moves higher. investors gearing up for jay powell on the hill discussing policy and if it needs to get more aggressive. and sticking with congress lawmakers set to reveal a bill targeting tiktok and national security concerns around the chinese social media app it is tuesday, march 7th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc

welcome back i'm frank holland. let's pick up on the stock futures. right now, we are seeing green across the board nasdaq is doing the best right now. up .25%. green across the board we are checking bond yields. looking at though closely. the inverted yield curve with the 10 and 2 year. the 10-year treasury at 3.93 bumping up against a 4% yield. we want to look at oil we are seeing oil flat there morning. brent crude at $80 a barrel. wti is $80, excuse me. brent crude is $86 a barrel. time for the check on the top stories with silvana henao good morning, silvana. >> good morning, frank a highly anticipated bill over

concerns around tiktok will be revealed today in the senate the legislation which is sponsored by senator mark warner and thune will give the authority to respond to the threats of the chinese company warner saying the bill will not be limited to reining in tiktok. warner will have more on the bill when he joins "squawk box" at 8:15 a.m. governor newsom announcing his state is done with walgreens over the decision not to d dispense the abortion pill newsom saying california will not do business with the pharmacy chain the spokesperson for the governor adding california is reviewing all relationships with walgreens and the state. for its part, walgreens will sell in jurisdictions where it

is legally allowed to do so. shares of rivian are falling ahead of the open after the ev maker will sell $1.3 billion of bonds to shore up capital. the rivian spokesperson said the money from the everytoffering ts capital. frank. thank you. turning back to the top story and jay powell heads to capitol hill testifying before the banking committee before p the house ctomorrow investors will likely hang on every word for any sign of the policy move with inflation appearing to plateau ahead of the comments, traders are pegging the odds of the 50 basis point rate hike compared

to 10% a month ago looking at 25 points interesting graphic right there. for more, let's bring from economics reporter jeanna smialek. jeanna, good morning i think we have to start with the news jay powell on capitol hill jobs report on friday. two big mac ro moments >> kind of out of order. i bet jay powell wishes the jobs report came before the speech this week. i think they are both really important to watch clearly we are going keep an eye on whatever powell says about the speed of rate increases and the speed going forward. he is unlikely to commit in any direction. you see the creep on the committee where they may signal

they will do more because the economy is so strong the jobs numbers on friday could confirm if that is accurate. we saw more than 500 million in january. >> you are the fed reporter and asking those questions one thing i want to point to here is how does the jobs report, i guess -- the gains in jobs have been in hospitality and leisure and consumer spending no other area of the economy is hit hard if we continue to see thie growth, what does that mean? >> it tells powell that vservics is hot you know, it is the fundamental economic momentum inflation is how i think of it. hot economy equals strong services i think they will take a signal

and take it as a sign they have more work to do to cool the economy down if they hope to get inflation under control. >> coming up, just next week, we have cpi and a fed meeting on the 21st how does jay powell pivot or position comments today knowing the other events are coming up >> this is a tough communications challenge we don't know what the jobs report will prbring or with cpi. i think they don't want to walk off the table with the possibility they might do more in the event you see a confirmation in the data and it looks like the economy is as hot as the january data were, they have to be in place to do more we will see a speech where he is trying to keep all of his options on the table

>> you are saying january may have been a blip friday is influenceing the fed decision >> you know, what we saw in the last cpi report is a huge disappointment everything had been going in the right direction for them when it came to inflation. late last year, it looked like everything was decelerating. then we got revisions that made the story look less convincing and a pop in january a lot of the month over month numbers were not expected. i think the combination will stick out to them and it is something to be concerned about. if we get it confirmed in the next cpi report, they will have to take a big signal from that about what they need to do with policy next. >> we keep talking about jay powell he is not the only voice in the room tell me about the role dissension plays in this in the research in the last financial crisis, janet yellen

says it is worse than you think. are there any dissenters saying wait a minute before we hike >> you do hear some amount of argument that they should be gentle in the process. not that they shouldn't raise interest rates, but be deliberate >> a quarter >> exactly stick to the quarter think when you need to stop and be cautious. that was the lael brainard camp. she moved over to be the top economist at the white house we are losing that important voice in that corner most of the dissension you hear is actually cutting in the other direction. we saw several officials who really wanted to go by a bigger half point move in january i'm really interested to see whether those folks feel empowered in the upcoming meeting. loretta mester wanted half a point last time and has been

clear there is a high bar. others like neel kashkari minneapolis is open minded about it >> i warrant to talk about your book how has the fedex expanded? >> i think viewers will be familiar with they are buying so many assets during times of crisis we saw qe explode. it is really becoming a regular part of the tool kit we saw them interviewing bond markets. name a market, they were in it in 2020. it is really interesting we haven't had a full discussion of what it meant for the markets and what it means for the future there is an expectation that it will happen again if we ever have a big financial crisis. the system is complex enough to think we could likely have another financial crisis.

>> perhaps loaning money to state and local governments. jeanna smialek, thank you for being here author the "limitless. coming up on "worldwide exch exchange," the showdown that may spell trouble for elon musk. and fire tv with the oscars hub. movies all in one place and casting predictions in seven categories during interactive voting experience. alex gibney naming the subject of the latest project. elon musk. he says the movie title "musk" has been in the making for months and will be an examination of the controversial ceo. and toblerone candy pabar is

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woelcome back. twitter with the service outage yesterday. musk's takeover of the platform and he changed what jack dorsey built. now dorsey is looking to disrupt what he created. we have kenzie sigalos with more you have been talking about the twitter war. >> good morning, frank elon musk's makeover is moving into the world of decentralized. many decentralized is a buzz word that gets thrown around with crypto now in the context of social media, it means it is harder for companies to track data and what they talk about online

it challenges censorship some of the decentralized social projects which are getting more attention include mastodon and lens which is twitter substitutes. jack dorsey is going head-to-head with musk o over alternatives. there is blue sky. a closed beta hit the app store. 30,000 signups on the wait list in 30 hours. b bluesky was created in 2019 as dorsey being ceo in december, dorsey donated 14 bitcoin or $245,000 at the time to the decentralized social media project which let's users own their online identity. it has been live on the app

store for months many in the leadership team are using the platform as the senators spoke out it is integrated the lightning network. it facilitates exchanges of decentralized money as well, frank. >> a lot of platforms claim more ownership of privacy and data. does this jack dorsey platform offer that and are there others where you can control your data? >> a lot of the platforms don't have an algorithm ad to sell your data. then there is the issue of scale. billions of facebook users as well as on twitter mastodon has 1.3 million users we are not at all at the point where adoption is hitting critical mass. after the exodus we saw from users of twitter last fall is

unclear. it is possible that bluesky to turn to subscriptions. we haven't heard much yet. >> when it comes to adoption, does it come down to whether or not people care abouttheir dat and privacy? we often have data flying everywhere is that the key question >> that's just it. the user experience with the front-end apps on top of the protocols is rough i tried it out it is not a particularly nice user experience. i asked why people would want to move from the centralized platform to a decentralized platform it is all about self governance. >> we have come to accept we are subjects of the king like march or -- mark or elon, and we follow their rules or leave

then having an opportunity to vote or having the responsibilities that come with that >> the problem with social media comes down to incentives and control. social media platforms right now are ad supported they make money keeping you on there. they are owned and controlled by one leader at the top. web3 social media is a huge opportunity because it is about giving the people who make their livelihoods on the platforms the ability to influence the rules that govern them and content >> interesting stuff i don't know if i want people on twitter governing anything really how we interact with friends and family and coworkers on social media. great stuff. >> thanks. coming up on "wex," victoria green has brought up the names on her shopping list that's next. and throughout march, we are

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that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ welcome back time for the wrap up six stories you may have missed. first off in france, labor

unions stepping up against macron's plans to work until age 64 before retirement a wave of strikes is bringing production to a halt. and meta is laying off more workers after the announcement from last november biden administration is set to propose raising taxes on americans earning more than $400,000 a year in the bid to extend medicare. biden says this makes the trust fund solvent beyond 2050 without cutting benefits. xi jinping taking aim at the u.s. in the speech yesterday blaming the washington campaign for the role in suppressing growth and isolating china from the world economy. and ww international looking

to compete in the obesity prescription drug business. and brian moynahan says he expects interest rates to start falling in the second quarter of 2024. we are gearing up for the trading day ahead. january trade figures and watching out for earnings from dick's sporting goods and thor industries at 10:00 a.m., jay powell kicks off day one of the testimony to congress cnbc will have complete coverage of that testimony. ahead of the powell testimony, let's dive into the tra trading day ahead and dive into the opportunities with victoria greene of g squared private wealth great to have you here. >> good morning, frank >> let's kick it off with jay powell on the hill today the testimony. what are you expecting from jay powell today we also have the jobs report on

friday >> today and tomorrow is about powell the market will hang on his every word i don't think he will say anything to consequential. they are waiting on more data with the january jobs. how sticky will cpi be next week not he has the data points, we will see what happens on the 22nd 50 basis points got shut down by daly this week he will reiterate what the fed governors said which is higher for longer we are trying to avoid that stop-start sticky fed policy you saw in the '70s and '80s i'm not looking to find anything -- i don't think he will say anything controversial. he will try to avoid poking the bear >> he will have a tough dance to do a lot of question from the hill. i want to ask we are two weeks away from the fed meeting. are you expecting 25 or 50 i know you said jay powell will

be careful does he tip his hand when he testifies? >> i expect 25 the market would be shocked if it is 50 the futures are pricing in 50 basis points that is heavily waieighed you could surprise on the upside and rally here we are reluctant bulls i think the fed has tried to communicate hard we are higher for longer we do not plan on cutting rates. the market is absorbing that that is reiterating what the fed governors said last week i think if you saw 50, that would be a huge down side to the market most likely status quo at 25. >> we have two earnings reports today. not huge, but two very different industries dick's and then i'm blanking on this i have to look the notes crowd strike how could i forget help me out.

two very different companies reporting. what do you expect from each one? what does it tell us about investing in the last month of the first quarter? >> sure. dick's is another referendum on the consumer health. we will see how inflation affected purchases we saw on the big box stores where big ticket items got hit dick's is another referendum on the consumer cr crowdstrike struggled. it will be less about what did you do in the fourth quarter and focus on the annual recurring revenue and what will do you for me going forward they have seen peers struggle guidance at 2023 and 20 this is not as high as the street and that is causing the stroocks to str struggle the guidance is not strong

enough which is punishing the stocks we will see how healthy the consumer is and the cloud base and see spending continue. >> before we leave, we have one stock pick mpc. explain why that is one of your picks. >> i do think that peak oil had a great run in energy stocks we have gone more on the energy sector marathon is my favorite pick in the space. they are five-times pe and 25 dividend $2.8 billion in cash excess of dividend and distributions in just q4. they will continue to print money. everybody is traveling that is a data point that consumers want to travel and spend money. you see above average driving season the refining margins may come down slightly and trading at a reason aable valuation that is a good place to hide we will need oil and gas

we will see the increase in demand it is a good place. >> the other pick is the darden restaurants and costco victoria greene, thank you for the picks. >> thanks, frank. that is it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box owneriso" cing up . dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity everything's changing so quickly. that lbefore the xfinitytten, or 10g network,rs we didn't have internet that let us play all at once. every device? in every room? why are you up here? when i was your age,

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good morning stock futures just slightly higher as markets await congressional testimony from jay powell we will tell you what to expect. longer higher long er for higher. president biden proposing an increase in the medicare tax rate for income above $400,000. the company known as weight

watchers buying a telehealth company. giving access to obesity drugs stock is jumping it is tuesday, march 7th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with kernen andrew is off today. you will see a mixed day for the markets. the dow and s&p up a little bit. nasdaq down a little bit this morning, there are green arrows if you looat