tv Closing Bell CNBC March 8, 2023 3:00pm-4:00pm EST
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still, it is an interesting topic to talk about. >> so there are the etfs where the concept would be invest in female-run companies >> it would be interesting if there was a bigger one out there and it's only 200, $250 million and it's an interesting concept on this international women's day. >> dom, we appreciate. >> thank you for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" with scott wapner starts right now welcome to "closing bell" i'm scott wapner this day begins with the stocks still on the defensive and still reacting to the fed chair's hawkish commentary, higher, faster, longer, three words that continue to reverberate through markets. nowhere is that more clear than in treasurys rates continuing their climb and here's the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. as you can see, stocks are still lower again as a more hawkish jerome power over the last couple of days sending the yield
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up the two-year running over 5% there it is, 506 as we watch the curve, and we watch the playbook and what should you do with your money now. let's bring in two people on very different sides of the debate and cnbc contributor and market bull jim lebenthal, and cantor's eric johnston who has been doubling down that stocks are about to head much lower both are with me here at post 9. jimmy, you're the bull and you'll get the first crack, okay stocks obviously didn't like what the fed chair had to say over the last couple of days bond yields rose why are you still bullish in the face of that andall you heard? >> there's a conflict going on here and we all see it we see what the fed is doing let me be clear about something. i'm not a flat earther and i'm not denying where the yield curve inversion is and i'm not denying what the fed chair said,
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but the flip side is this economy is doing really quite strongly whether you look at the atlanta fed gdp now or you look at ons and that for me is the crux of this people are employed and if they're employed, they're consuming and consumption is a very large part of this economy, china is re-opening and europe hasn't done as badly as people feared, but this is the conflict, right? can the fed actually just crush this economy do they need to crush the economy? by the way, i actually think inflation is coming down more than people suspect. we had three good inflation months in a row and january kind of messed things up. we have to see starting on friday and next week with the average hourly earnings, cpi and ppi and here's the thing, there's a tide going up, right we have the fed punching the economy in the face, but you have the economy really hanging in there at the end of the day i'm putting my money on the economy. it's that simple the economy wants to grow. people want to spend when they're employed and i feel comfortable with where the
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employment numbers are. >> you're doubling down on your conviction that this market's in trouble, that it's on borrowed time and stocks are going down and going down a lot what do you make of what he said >> so i've never seen the risk in this market be so asymmetric to the down side when i've said that you have the two-year yield go to zero to 5%. and the fed rate going from 0 to 5% and a quantitative tightening going on simultaneous with that. if everything goes perfectly and what imis saying, all goes just perfectly, somehow even with that going on, the economy continues to grow as it is well business right now we're trading at 18 times those earnings which is an outside of bubble, a historically high multiple, and every other indicator in terms of leading indicators would suggest that the high likelihood is that the fed is going to negatively impact this economy and that when you have rates go from zero
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to 5%, we all know there's a light effect we all know that so looking at a payroll number today or the consumer today, the consumer was strong before all other prior recessions the leading indicators all suggest significantly -- significant downside in effect doesn't happen by some miracle, then stocks are here at current earnings over value. >> that's the big pushback against you, jim, is that what is today is not going to be tomorrow we discussed it a million times. >> we have discussed it a million times. >> and what the fed put forth a year ago and didn't back off from it today the higher, faster, longer idea. are you ignoring that? >> no. i'm not going to use the comments again i am very aware of what he said. i also think this is a fed that desperate wants to see friday's average hourly earnings numbers and next week's cpi and ppi and luckily they'll get that before the next meeting look, there's validity to what you're saying.
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there is a conflict here we're not speaking falsely, either one of us. >> your mountain is higher to climb than eric's. >> let me tell you what's a good climbing rope that i have that's dating me here is the strength of the banking sector. what you just said and we talked about this a million times you know what's going through my head what jamie dimon made the hurricane comment and that was literally nine months ago. we've been going along and one of the things that just hasn't cracked is the banking system. this matters a lot because when you get a real face-ripping bear market you know what happens? it's something like citigroup or j.p. morgan has some huge trading loss on european natural gas or they find out they were invested in a crypto hedge fund that blows a hole in the balance sheet and i'm sure you will say what about that tightening that's going on in the banks that's not a gut-wrenching tightening that's just a normal, at this stage of the economic cycle tightening you've got a very healthy
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banking system and until that shows some sign of not just a crack, a major schism and a fracture >> part of the point, eric, too, is what jim sees as a strength you see as a liability i go to the beige book and inflationary pressures remain, quote, widespread and economic activity rose slightly in 2023 jim would say, see i'm telling you the economy is strong enough to withstand whatever the fed is doing. we'll either of get a softer no landing where you would say, see? that just means they'll do what i say. they'll push the economy over the edge because they have to. >> and that's the problem right now with being long equities it's sort of a heads you win, tails i lose type of situation where if the economy is strong then they're going to raise rates more which is what's going on now and that eventually will make the ultimate fall on the economy even larger as they start to move rates higher you know, one of the thing around recessions is there were no recessions 2009 up until
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covid because we had all this stimulus coming from fiscal monetary to support the economy. now we're in a very different situation. we are back to where it was before, because of inflation, because the fed balance sheet is already as large as it is, we don't have that ability, right to have that buffer on the down side so i think we'll be going much more towards normal economic cycles going forward which means there's more downside risk and it also means people are less able to forecast them or believe they're going to happen because they haven't seen one for such a long time ex covid >> let me ask you this, jim, if we were in a different regime where the fed was pumping it into the market you would make an argument don't fight the fed. they would be putting all of this money into the system how can the economy do great and the stock market follow? now they're doing the exact opposite, but you keep arguing what you would argue if you were the other way around and how do
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you square that? >> i actually love what eric just said about getting back to normal, economic cycles and i hated this intensive square unit with zero interest rate policy it's not normal and not good here's what i believe will save us as the fed normalizes which darn it, it should it's the after-effect of the pandemic where you have hundreds of billions of therdollars with supply chain, and i'm talking about the list price for the semiconductor plants and the ev battery plants and all of that sort of stuff. i'm not talking about the knock-on multiplier effect that we often talk about in the housing market, but will also be felt with union pacific shipping aggregates to the building sites and the proverbial lunch man guy feeding the workers there. i think that's a powerful force that frankly, explains why the housing market has been on its back for a year and yet this economy's going strong i mean, there are explanations
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that make sense to me. >> eric, what's the counter? >> yeah, so, i think a number of things i think when you look at the unemployment rate at 3.4% that's not going to go any lower, right? it's just by definition, we are full employment. so we've looked at the data when the unemployment rate bottoms and goes higher, gdp falls which is a natural thing that you would expect and also stock performance is very poor is that as the unemployment rate is going up we look at the annualized returns when that happens and it's 3.5% going back to 1960 which is below the current two-year yield is. what it tells you is that returns going forward will be much lower because we're starting from the top of the cycle and that makes it very, very difficult when you're at the top of the cycle and you have the fed that is against you. that becomes very, very
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problematic. this dramatically inverted yield curve doesn't faze you at all? >> here's my question, i mean, it's a rhetorical question explain to me how it causes a recession. i understand they're correlated and i understand the data. we don't have to do that, but that correlation doesn't tell me the causal mechanism by which that yield curve inversion -- >> it causes rather than predict. >> okay. >> no one is suggesting that it causes. >> maybe i'm hearing what i want to hear, but obviously that comment -- >> you know -- you know what people are saying about how dramatically inverted the yield curve is it's a reflect of sentiment. >> you would get a recession every time, but you never get a recession without a yield curve inversion and you have the most inverted curve that you've had for the longest people can remember >> you have the ten-year yield
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150 basis points below where the fed funds rate is likely to be going. what that tells you is the fed will get to 5.5 and then they'll have to cut dramatically >> the other problem jim has is, as some would say, jim and i'll let you push back on this, black rock's rick reader and the 6% block seems to be growing by the day if not the hour and greg branch was here on closing bell yesterday said 6 to 6.5. it seems that the risk is to the upside and not the down side >> i'll grant you, let me be clear. the degree of confidence in anyone's output, the projection has to be low and we are really in uncharted territory and how well is the market hanging out i think the answer to the question is inflation does have to really moderate it was doing that until we got the january figures and january's numbers showed moderation, but not the way we
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want if i look at commodity prices and gasoline futures and rent, one of you will say yeah what about wages >> i thought one of us was going to say was yeah, what about services, and that's what the fed cares more about, but you don't want to hear about that either. >> oh, come on i just said there are flaws. >> everything that presents to you from the bearish side is yeah, but. >> well, everything -- everything the bulls present to the bears is yeah, but so listen, i think there's reason to have an argument i think there's reason -- i'm not saying eric is a nut he's not saying is i'm a nut we're not disagreeing on the facts. >> one of the things jim said was there's uncertainy and one of the uncertainties is only to the down side. we're not going to have a situation where the economy surprises to the upside in the face of 6% -- the 6% fed funds rate or 5% two-year yields and
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the question is can the economy hold on or is it going to get materielly worse that's a terrible risk-reward for owning equity and that's the environment that you want to be in stocks especially when you have the alternative of being in the money market fund. >> jim, what was a lot of alternatives has a lot of alternatives and we heard about that, too, whether it was money marks or various treasurys that offer the kind of interest rates and value if you want to say that people are flocking to now. good, normal environment this is good eric, you made a point about the market multiple at 18 times and that's a reason why i'm underweight technology which is promoting that quite a bit and we know at the top of the market the 25% of the market is the top six stocks and they're inflating it by 1.5 to two turns and the
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supply chain, and industrial, materials, financials and energy, i don't have those multiples and i have good dividend yields. i hear you i agree that there is an alternative both within and outside of the stock market. >> let me get you to respond to michael kolanovic, we understand that they're in a bear market and will not bottom until central banks start cutting rates. that's what he said about j.p. morgan do you want to take that on? >> i think he could be right here's a hypothetical. say you get a pretty benign inflation reports next week, i think the market's going to rip on the anticipation that the fed is close to a pause. nobody should be hoping for a cut, and i'm not hoping for a cut. it means you're in trouble it means the economy's in trouble. there's been nine recessions since 1960 the bottom in the equity market was after the start of the recession 100% of the time so you think there's a recession coming, the lows are still in if the nine times prior hold up,
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and i think the chances of recession are very meaningful. >> we've laid out over the last couple of days the fact that you have arguably the 12 or 13 most meaningful trading days of the year occurring in this stretch now you can cross the powell testimony off that list, but you do have the jobs report. this week is your next sort of hurdle to jump over. are both of your outcomes, in a sense, hanging on what happens on friday? >> so, no. the short term -- look, the friday and tuesday report, payrolls and cpi are extremely binary based on the setup from powell yesterday extremely binary i, frankly, don't have a view on how friday and tuesday is going to play out, but we'll have a sharp move in equities one way or the other because we'll know by tuesday whether they're going 25 or 50 now, so it impacts the one week significantly. the impact on my view beyond
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that is of very little impact. very little impact we know -- we have a strong view around where the end point is in this market and whether it's going to start on friday or continue on friday or continue at a later date, i don't know, but friday and tuesday are huge and we'll let you know tuesday and see what the fed will do >> i wish it didn't matter as much as it did and i'm terrible at saying that you know i'm not much of a charter and if i tell you it means that really matter we bounced off the 200-day moving average a couple of weeks ago and we've come back from the october lows of higher highs and lower lows you had the golden cross of the 50-day moving across the 200-day moving average if you get lousy, hot inflation numbers next week will break the trend is your friend right now, but these inflation numbers come in hot that ain't going to
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matter >> mark, who was on this show yesterday, he thinks rates are topping out and he's bullish, too. i think any further drawdown is not going to last three or four days and we'll bottom out and turn higher. momentum is good nearly 60% of stocks are above their 200 day. this is impressive we don't run to the hills because of one down day. i want to have you both back in the next, you know, few weeks at most, and i want to see where we go, and i want you to continue this debate. >> understand. >> eric johnston, jim lebenthal, thank you very much. >> thank you we want to know who is right about this market? is it eric johnston or jim lebenthal? lead to cnbc.com on twitter and we share the results later in the hour we are just getting started on "closing bell qwest ". a serious upside for apple and we are live from the new york stock exchange and you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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we're switching gears on fed chair's comments in the past couple of days and we've seen gold hit its lowest levels and gold, aluminum, nickel and silver all lower in the past week scott? >> all right kristina, thank you. beale we'll talk to you again in a little bit the 25% in the stock market, and dan nies on signs of rebounding deman there you see him joins us now. what is the evidence of the rebounding iphone demand >> in the check this week which we finished yesterday, they're showing no cuts to production and that's important because what we're really seeing through there is that demand looks strong out of china with a significant uptick especially with december and ast is close to $900. you put that in right now and they're tracking 3% to 5% where
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the street is. >> you use the word yourself modest in your characterization of the uptick that you've seen in demand in china, and i'm wondering is -- is, quote, unquote, modest uptick, is that enough to make a broad statement about demand overall >> that's a great point, scott most suppliers knew that there would be potential cuts and i think the fact that there's been an uptick specifically in china. that continues to be hearts and lungs of what we've seen in the upgrade cycle that's what stands out and when you trajectory that out you can have 6, 7 million iphones that beat for the year despite this macro uncertainty and that's really why this continues, in my opinion to be a rock of gibraltar tech stocks. >> you mentioned the macro yourself which i wanted to ask you about, the danger of making
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a call like this in what is still a very uncertain macro and i don't think you'd be prepared to make the statement that apple's recessionproof, are you? >> not at all. i think cooks talked about it, but i do believe that they have steel armor relative to the install, and that's the golden install base that they have, and i think factored into what i believe is the services as well as what we see with iphone, in my opinion, i think this is one that will have upside the next few quarters despite what right now is new york city cab drivers bearish on apple and broader tech going into it's clearly a white knuckle environment. >> the services business we already know is slowing. so is a modest uptick in demand enough to offset any of those concerns enough that you would want to bump your price target up >> in the services business which we think is worth 1.2 to
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1.3 trillion, you now have 120 million new iphones over the last 15 to 18 months and the services will be strong there. w we're seeing an uptick on the app store as well as things happening internationally. i put it all together right now, relative to where we saw this even a month ago, woe're seeing demand tick up and what we've seen with the anniversary cycle which we'll hit in september is there any regulatory risk, boj seemed to be escalating their scrutiny of the third-party app issue. that continues to be head-on risk with the trial and i think that gave investors a lot of agita and when it comes from apple from the antitrust perspective and we spent a lot of time in the beltway the consensus is actually a
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positive and that app store, you know, that's one of the key ingredients in the recipe for success in terms of that, and i think that's why right now this is really cook navigating the storm. >> we'll leave it there. dennis, thanks so much we'll talk to you. webbush's dan ives joining us on "closing b "closing bell. the stocks are heading lower, and jenny saccocia on how best to trade this turbulence we're back after this. mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?!
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kevin, thanks so much for being here economic uncertainty is the name of the game right now. what should be top of mind for csos >> planning and preparation is the key and one thing that can be overlooked is tax and involve your tax function and planning and whether it's tax cutting and acquisitions and restructuring and get that device. one way is to take advantage of legislative change the inflation reduction act. a lot of us are aware of the renewable funding grant and it extends to life sciences, retail, consumer products and many others. on the offensive side, we're helping our clients evaluate
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whether they can qualify for some of the tax incentives that are there through 3031 >> so there's the credit side of things and what about from a cost perspective, what should they be aware of >> an excise tax and how that can affect future transactions tax is complicated and my advice, sit with your tax adviser, understand how you can take advantage of these opportunities and help you work through the uncertain times and come out stronger on the other side. >> thanks so much for sharing your expertise. >> thank you
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both on international women's day. i don't know if you saw the debate between lebenthal and johnston, jenny, should you be more bullish or bearish right now? >> this goes to the question you asked me two or three weeks ago, you fight the fed or do you fight the tape and this is where i'll give you the lame answer which is they're both kind of right. you can't really fight the tape, right? we know that over the long run the market is up 8% to 10% and most are long term investors, but we also know that the fed will give us opportunities and so what i'm doing right now is i've got about 10% in cash there are three stocks, and i'm being patient on what i'm buying and they're saying over the long run the market goes up and if you take a long term perspective you will most likely have a positive return. lame answer, but they both have elements of correctness. >> what do you think >> this talks about timing in terms of you talked about this on the show last week.
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we are looking at this period over the next 10, 13, 14 days where we're going to get a lot of data points and to me some of those data points or the majority of those data points would be market moving to the negative one of the things coming out of january all of these will not annualize at the same pace or annualize at the same return to me, if you're sitting here waiting for your perfect entry point, you should probably be in the market because nobody can time that, but if you're looking to incrementally add treasurys to get a nice return you probably will have several opportunities over the next couple of months because the inflation story is not -- is -- it's not on the track or trend that it needs to be for a significant rebound in the markets over the next six to eight weeks. >> you are super long term outlook, jenny i get it, but i'm trying to speak as a broad aer investor a i'm not going to put money broadly in the market today
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because you tell me 80% of the time over the long term it goes up, if i think that we're about to have an eric johnston-predicted upset in stocks because the economy will go down the tubes. do you understand what i'm saying >> 100%. let's use my client base as a representation my client base is between 50 and 90 years old you know what? most of them have been invested for ten, 20, 30, 40 years. they're certainly not getting out now because they know their likelihood of being right and getting out now and then getting back in later. >> no, they're not getting out now, but they're not calling you up saying jenny, this is a great opportunity to put money to work in the market. i doubt that. >> what percent out there is just new money coming in that's tiny versus what's already invested so there are some people who are getting their bonuses this year and we're kind of playing around with it and send the money in and we'll pick up positions as they become attractive. >> to shannon's point, send the bonus in and let's put it in
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shorter dated treasurys or put it in money marks which are giving you the kind of opportunities that you literally haven't had in decades >> well, academic research shows that this dollar cost averaging idea after two years, it really doesn't make a difference as long as what you want it to be is invested in the market, to jim's point earlier, right, that he made, but in this period there's an opportunity to be patient and look for these opportunities to add to areas that you think are interesting and that's not just in certain sectors, but it's in equities at large and to me, i look at the next couple of weeks and again, if you're sitting and you're getting paid you can go more slowly than perhaps we would have done in the past just based on the fact that there is this alternative. >> you gave, jenny, our producers on halftime a short list on stocks that you're looking at, ups, stanley, black & decker, crown castle, why? why are those the ones on your list. >> what shannon said, right now
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we have an opportunity to be patient. we have not had an opportunity to be patient in like a decade the market is up in our face and you're actually losing money and now you can send in cash why those are on our short list is all of these are for our dividend income strategy and they all have very nice yields and they're very well priced and they're not trading at 21 or 30 times. they're trading at ten times and seven times earnings and that yield is there, but the reason i haven't bought them yet is because i think, you know what there's a lot of systematic risk in all of those stocks they're big names and if the market comes back i'll probably get in cheaper and they're all just really export companies and if the economy does stay decent, right? if we kick a recession into 2025 their earnings will truck right along and it's interesting, ups reiterated their guidance. on the last earnings call they jacked up their dividends and last night they reiterated their
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guidance and that's a great company and i might buy it 50% cheaper with a nearly 4% yield that's great >> what looks good to you in the market right now >> i know we talk about tech a lot and so i'm not going to spend a lot of time there. >> it doesn't matter if it's the best place to talk about it, then talk about it >> looking at valuation opportunities within technology. health care, i think, scott, the opportunity to invest in health care has a democratic tailwind than most other industries that we have an opportunity to do and so if you look at all of these innovations that's happening in life sciences, for instance, we're on the cusp of this -- remember the lipitor, the cholesterol drug remember that wave of drugs where everybody was buying pharma stocks? we're at the precipice of a new wave of innovation in life sciences and in pharma, and i think there are huge opportunities to be investing there. >> all right thank you. sticking around, shannon saccocia, jenny you have more
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work to do that's jenny harington, too. we're tracking the movers and kristina partsinevelos is back with that. kristina >> do you like jack daniels? yes, you clearly not enough to help with the parent company's earnings miss and i'll have all of that and much more after this next break. go get that jack daniels what if you were a trendy apparel company facing an avalanche of demand? to ensure more customers can buy more sherpa-lined jackets, you call ibm to automate your it infrastructure with ai . now your systems monitor themselves. what used to take hours takes minutes. and you have an ecommerce platform designed
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20 minutes still to close. back to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the key stocks to watch over the homestretch kristina >> oil stocks are getting slammed this week as oil and natural gas prices continue their slide. the worst performance day are names like valero, eqt and philips66 or kortera is down almost 3%. every stock in the s&p energy sector is headed for a weekly decline except occidental which is up 1.4% now for the alcohol conversation jack daniels' parent company brown foreman is one of the worst performers on the s&p 500 today after reporting a sizeable earnings miss as they hire advertising, general and administration expenses. though the bourbon maker did
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perform higher than the previous guidance there are jack daniels drinkers out there. scott? >> last chance to weigh in on our twitter question who is right about the market? eric johnston or jim lebenthal there they are on the big wall now go vote @cnbcclosingbell on twitter and the results after this break a programming note, tune in for the premiere of cnbc's newest show "last call. it's tonight 7:00 eastern hosted by brian sullivan. you don't want to miss that. we are right back on "closing bell" after this
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now let's get the results of our twitter question we asked who's right about the market eric johnston or jim lebenthal the majority of you, near 57% say eric johnston. up next is the bottom in for the chips? top analysstt acy rascon is standing by with his take and the names he's betting on in that sector as one increases its dividend that and more as we take you that and more as we take you inside the market zone cheers! with 100% ac tax calculations guaranteed. the first time your sales reached 100k was also the first time you hit this note... ( screams in joy) save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost.
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♪ ♪ we are now in the closing bell market zone cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day and the rally in chip stocks. jenny harrington is back and the big bet on occidental petroleum. a nice bounce. the s&p goes positive and the dow may very well try and do the same thing. >> yes certainly oscillating in a narrow range i think you have to grant the fact that the market is swimming against a somewhat stronger current than it was a couple of weeks ago and it's still afloat. we're still up for the month and you have to grant that also small caps have lagged this week and some of the risk appetite indicators that we were sort of leaning on to say that the market, quote, wants to go higher and at least knock down they possibly softened up a little bit and you'll talk about semis and they're a strong point and the defensive areas of the
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market have not distinguished themselves to say we have an economic problem and what do you pay for stocks and when are yields going to quit >> i feel that our twitter poll has tended to capture the pulse of the market for that particular moment, and i think today is very well representative of that so it's 57% to 43% for eric johnston's more bearish view that's a strong majority, but not a runaway. >> not at all. the bulls are still hanging on to some degree of hope and maybe it's backed by some evidence i go back to mark newton yesterday which we write on this program, momentum is good, nearly 60% of all stocks with the 200 day. that's impressive. don't run for the hills because of one down day in the market. >> that's true the percentage above the 200-day moving average has been sliding.
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stacy rascon, of bernstein, one of the top chip analysts on the street qualcomm, let's start there. a bump in dividend today what's your reaction >> i didn't have much of a reaction i don't think it was hugely unexpected i had 80 cents and that was kind of in line with the typical magnitude of the dividend increase that we've seen out of them in prior years. it wasn't unusual. you're probably comparing like
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intel who obviously just cut the dividend and intel is in a special case all by themselves they don't have any cash flow. they don't have the money to afford to pay it qualcomm clearly does. >> somehow all roads always lead back to intel. i don't know what that says about your view of how dire things may be there, but what about the space in general mike santoli to my left was mentioning the strength in chips. believable, is the worst behind that sector? >> yeah, well, semiconductors tend to like the stocks after the numbers have been cut and it's usually after the numbers come down just before they hit bottom they peaked in june. they've come down 30% and more broadly for the whole sector and it's the largest negative earnings revision we've had probably since the financial crisis it's been pretty big i think right now people are playing the sector broadly for the second half recovery with
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china re-opening and it's march and you can do that now. we'll see what happens if we get through the year and for now you can fight that there's a broader trend and people are getting very excited about some of the more secular trends with the generalive a.i. and the top s&p 500 stocks and nvidia presumably and they'll all be a.i. kind of plays and when you sit down and size what this could mean for those kind of stocks, particularly for a stock like innvidia, the opportunity could be big and it may not be the next six months to 12 months and looking for those longer term, broader secular plays that could really drive the upside to expect aatis and the stocks and the trends and drivers that are capturing people's attention and some of the stocks are doing very well >> don't answer this next question based on your sort of big world, big picture longer
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term perspective view, but answer it for me based on where both stocks are today. that leads me to nvidia versus qualcomm i know two stocks that you like, but which is better today, and i think it's kind of a loaded question, right? because look at what nvidia has done year to date. is it attractive today >> you bet it depends on what you're looking for. america vidia has done very well it is up 60% plus year to date, and i think that one can still work i like it right now, and i like it for the long term qualcomm's a little different. qualcomm is well today and it's perceived as a smartphone play and anything touching smart phones, i said this before on air, but anything touching smartphones has been dead. but if you're looking at the recovery bill, qualcomm fits the
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bill they did not benefit from covid. they were just lousy the whole time i don't have a ton of demand like i have in pcs i think a lot of the weakness was due to china so china will re-open like that's actually a positive in the back half. qualcomm kind of put the bottom and they guided the march quarter flat and usually it would be down significantly seasonally and this tells you the bottom and we can argue when it starteds to pick up and it probably doesn't get much worse. they guided 215 in earnings and annualized a trough number and it's 14 times on that, and you know, you kind of look and there's a broader handset and that's really, really good and the stock's cheap when you're waiting for it you're playing for a back half recovery, i like qualcomm, and i like nvidia. >> great last words. thank you. as always, jenny harrington, back with us, too. the other big story of the day, buffett buying even more
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occidental and certainly from positioning is the lack of performance from energy stocks this year, jny . >> the lack of performance is they had a lack of performance in 2021 and 2022 they need time to consolidate. if you look at occi or the holdings i have which are pioneer and devon, and say hey, we're not using as much gasoline and gasoline consumption peaked in 2019 and if you will see we are consuming 100 billion barrels of oil a day and as we have evs and work from home and all of that and decreasing gasoline consumption, there's more flying throughout the world and more consumption and developing economies and using way more goes lean and that propped the price of oil up. you look at an oxy and they're
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pretty cool and they are more diversified in the middle east and you have an inexpensive valuation with decent growth ahead. if you want to play it from the dividend yield like i do, you have devon and all of those stories are kind of the same saying there's at least the next ten years endless demand for fossil fuel consumption. >> mike, you still have people saying energy is the place to be when you ask them what they like, i like energy. they're not believers and many are not in the countertrend move we've had with tech and the consumer and other places. >> right there is still a little more of an earnings base and some parts of energy where you will find it it seems like it's more stable so i understand that it also should be in the sort of value bucket that should do reasonably well when rates are higher and other type of cyclicals have been performing and i understand it. you're metabolizing a 60% move
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and it's wild about how far up it was and it was the division with the crude price and energy stocks have held up too well relative to where the commodity has been and it's not really the case and i don't think that's one of those things that you would throw at the sector, but it is, you know, it is interesting that you could either do it as the income play or it's a china's coming back or it's a long term kind of bull market in real assets which is another -- i think it's another line of thinking around it >> there's your sound effect two-minute warning is in full effect, jenny harrington >> thank you for that. so if you don't want to look at them from a p-e perspective, there are limited earnings growth ahead and trading at multiples on under seven times and you look at what devin just said which is almost a 10% yield and you look at what pioneer said and if oil stays at 60
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we'll pay you at a 5% dividend, and you can just look at it like these companies are just minting cash and that's one way or another going into your pocket >> mike santoli, two-year 505. >> yeah. >> i have the ten-year pushing for and they may hit it while we're talking and the vix is low. i see it on my fax and this is right. it's 19. >> look at the index moving. how long have we been around 4,000, right that really is the key input into whether vix should be moving and you're also seeing a fair amount of sector divergence and rotation and that does trap volatility yes, i get it, bond volatility has picked up again and that has sometimes been a leading indicator of what the equity should be and i don't read it as telling you what the mood of the market is and the pace of the market and the fact that in fact, it's worth one of these trading ranges we've had and a bunch of them going back to the
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last call. [ cheers and applause >> we have a nice little comeback as we've progressed toward the close here. the dow is still negative by some 67, 60 points or so, but the s&p as you can see is positive by near 5 the nasdaq is still green, as well keep an eye on those rates they remain very much the story. one more trading day to go before the jobs report o.t. begins now with morgan and jon. [ cheers and applause thanks, scott. that is the scorecard on wall street, but the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime," i'm margaret brennan with jon fortt." we could be years away from the downturn. >> plus, shares of wwe, yeah, that one, spiking into the close following a report by our own alex sherman that you might soon
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