primary, you're automatically register in that party there's going to be a lot of stuff for "last call." tonight is the first time. anything probably will happen. >> we're looking forward to it tune in, 7:00 p.m. eastern right here in the meantime that does it for us here. >> "fast money" starts right now. \s. right now on "fast" jobs, jobs, jobs, the report coming in stronger than expect, settinged table for a big number for the department of labor. we mean it this time plus, running on empty, maybe the ev boom could hit a serious bump and china remains the most consequentially security threat to our nation.

inside the sobering assessment, and later, a cryptic tweet from the meme stock king. if ryan cohen is saying hello, moo you be saying good-bye. >> ooh. we have a full house here tonight, all here on the set we start off with the countdown to the most important jobs report of the year we say that a lot, but we really mean it. friday's report is one of the last economic data pointsb of fed east next districts, and as jerome powell sell, the central bank will be watching closely. >> we have not made any decision about the march meeting. we won't do that until we see the largest data the larger point is we are not on a set path. >> still, investors are

increasingly looking for a 50 base point hike in march can they give the markets some relief here? what do you think? >> i think relief is probably the more likely scenario a lot of the hawkish data, a lot of the very hot data we have seen has probably to a certain extent been baked in they have a real job to do what, two job openings for every one person that did not make their job particularly easy. obviously wages i think will continue to move higher. i think their job is difficult the market is finally coming to the realization they have a hard job. in terms of fed rate hikes, yes, seventh, eighth ink, i get it, but in deal with or incorporating the fed rate hikes, very early innings, bottom of the second, if i may, tim seymour. >> you might have said "jobs" like 11 times. there's a lot to incorporate

>> a drinking game. >> when you hear "job" do whatever you want to do during the telecast, you had fed funds -- the term nat rate went from 5.48 to 5.69. we priced in a lot of fed the past few days. it doesn't seem like a huge surprise, but it had to happen the two most important days over the last six months have been the october 13th cpi and fed second jobs number there's no way this will be as important or cataclysmic as this one juan i would say you err to the down side in terms of where rates go on this payroll number the jolts number, guy said it,

there's moreoff openings than people in this country there's no way. >> let's play this hot friday we get a hot report that indicates still strength in the labor market, is it a buy the news event >> i don't think so. as our friend cartersays, it's a pair of 2s here. guy just said through the lens of the market, really, how is it going to work into the economy that's the thing right now i guess we should focus on this gdp now, they just sue q1 shoot up to 2.8% i think it was at 2% we have an economy for whatever reason has not digested nearly 59% i 5% interest rate hikes we have an economy that's just like -- >> we're reopening, too.

you forget this was a reopening. the economy should take time to hit full capacity. >> i guess the point is if we're looking at s&p, and we go over this again and again, right around 4,000, is this the appropriate multiple it probably isn't. i think the bulls will say, listen, maybe the market has discounted whatever we're going to have in the second half of the year i fed will say they need to see the economy cool off a bit >> looking back at the adp report in february, they got it really wrong if the market has digested this, you know, hot hot hot number and tomorrow they get it wrong tomorrow at they did then, i think we'll see a much cooler employment report. i've always been somewhat skeptical of adp as an indicator. it doesn't matter to --

>> their track record is terrible. >> it doesn't matter what the number is, it's the perception to this moves perception are you getting a free look at an actual number being much better i don't know maybe. i think bad is already priced in. >> bad being good. >> right if adp is correct, i am not comfortable saying, yes, adp is always correct so i think you have kind of a free up side on cooler employment. >> even beyond the jobs report, it's the last -- you know, the jobs report has -- and the data points, but the cpi is the final data point we will get what has happened in the past month, in terms of energy prices >> some of those inputs have gotten higher. we talk about the used car market, which we rarely talked about over this show's lifetime. we talk about it seemingly every

other week in and out, probably correctly show, but those inputs, the variables are starting to trend the wrong way for the federal reserve. if you think magically inflation will take care of itself, thing again, meaning again their job is not done. if you listen to jerome powell, he's basically stating it. the market is not taking that into considering nearly enough >> what's puzzling to me is the semiconductors were up, and rallied agetsively into the close and now at over one-year relative highs to the s&p. they're back to where we were when we were in the go-go days of this market that's biczar. everything else, both in terms of the equity struggle, where we've been seeing rates go, there's a lot of reasons, it could be geopolitics, clearing out inventories. there's different reasons.

you can't really explain the semico semiconductors' move if -- it's been very positive. >> the last two times in the last 20-some years, we had it go above five, and then to six in 1999 that was the same year that the yield curve inverted, okay we know what happened in 2000. the stock market topped out. go back to 2006, the fed funds got above 5%, and it stayed there. both times it stayed there the fed did what they said they were going to do we also had an inversion in 2006, with the 22/10 spread. much was expecting that recession to happen, but it hasn't happened. it keeps getting pushed out, but here's the deal. just think about that. they're going to keep rates

above 5% for a while something really bad would have to happen for them to change their tune instead, they had bad things that happened in 2007, 2008, back into 2002 >> why do bad thing have to happen in order for the fed to change its tune. why can't it be employment is higher, and they're seeing progress in what they want -- >> there's no history for that the fed has never been able to time this thing. they have always come to the party too fashionably late. >> it's going don't proven wrong? they're not market participants. i just feel as if the delay, in terms of the data they're going -- he said we're looking at the entire of the data today. i just don't think there's evident the fed will do this reek. >> the fed has a blunt instrument it's not a scalpel for them to get it absolutely

right, i don't even know if that's possible. you have monetary and fiscal policy that's counterproductive for one another. i know hard landing is really in vogue now in the last week or so, with the inversion, but i think a bumpy closer to softer is still possible. >> what is it about this market environment, though, where the bond market can be so definitive in what it's tell graphing, and the stock market remains in this boring range >> i think there's still passive investing going on, which clearly does not take into consideration anything we talk about on a nightly basis that's part of the equation. i think there's market participants trying to front run what they think is neffible there's also a bevy of people, and we're included in that group, rate hikes in a

magnitude. i don't think -- listen, i think people understand we're in the late innings of the rate hik cycle, but we're in the early innings of the market and the economy feeling the effects. >> for more ahead, roger ferguson a cnbc contributor always great to get your take, roger. do you believe what the bond market is telegraphing y yes, and some know clearly they're expecting the fed to continue to rate rates for a period of time i think where the bond market is off is in an inversion that's implying a fed that's going to have to change its tune relatively quickly, i.e. before the end of this year, a place where i think the bond market is probably right again is probably -- i'm in the camp of, you know, a softish landing

maybe a mild recession, so if the bond market is telling us that -- i would say yes, they're right there. i think the bond market is mainly right, but i think it's getting the timing off just a bit. >> roger, the faster and/or higher than the fed goes, do you think it becoming less probable? >> yes, i do that is because it's very hard to judge exactly when you've gone far enough. i think they recognize they put a lot of restraint into the economy relatively quickly, and yet they're continuing to confront a labor market that's very tight, you know, roughly two jobs for every unemploy person so i think they are in an interesting dilemma, where they put a lot in, and probably still

have more to go. whenever that happens, whenever you move fast and look like you've been continuing to move fast, you don't have time to judge, and the probability of overtightening i think certainly has to go up >> we've been talking about the pace and the impact of the fed actions. maybe you can comment on it, in terms of how unprecedented it is but the magnitude and the velocity of these rate hike moves, and yet we haven't seen it on top of a labor market that you described is structurally strong and will remain strong. we're all struggling with the pace of this we want this to go very fast your view on how long this could play out >> look, i think the fed has got at least two more moves. they are struggling at this stage, between 25 and 50 basis

points i think what the chair signaled, chairman powell signaled is a higher so-called temple natural rate the market is starting to get its head around the possibility of a number that starts with six. i don't think that's impossible. i think they'll keep rates higher for longer than the market is currently pricing in the market is catching up to the fact that probably not a cut this year. that's where we are, but it starts with the inputs that are also quite unprecedented, global shutting down and then opening huge amounts of stimulus are everywhere, the uncertainty on the first war on continental why were since 145, and not surprises that one of those things that's unprecedented is the pace at which the fed has to more, and the uncertainly that still remains. fed official who have spoken

recently, have certainly gotten across the message to the markets that it will be higher the longer part, you know, is a bit of a question mark here. you speak fed, roger when you hear "longer" does that mean six month to you? we're seeing cuts priced in for june of next year. that doesn't seem like a long time, but maybe in the world of fed officials, that is a long time what's your take on that i think the question is, is the fed willing to risk a recession? i think the fed is willing to do that they've talked about pain, a bumpy landing. i think the market is not 100% convinced for to allow us to have a short and shallow recession. i think the fed is ready to do that cuts mid part of next year, possibly, depending on how the

incoming data play in. so i think where i was disagreeing with the market was ahn expectation of cuts this year i thought that was really wrong. the possible of a cut middle part of next year, it's possible, but it depends very much on -- where the equity markets have been wrong, they keep losing track of 9 big picture, which it's still very above what the fed wants, and they keep getting optimistic about a turn the bond market was wrong about a cut this year. i think they may be closer to right about the fed holding the rates high until the middle of next year, and it's a relatively long period of time. >> thanks for your take, roger all right. so, the question is how long will the opening market be wrong for? what will convince the markets that, yeah, it could be a recession, it should be a short

one, but there will be a recession. we could see some hard impact on the economy. we talk about earnings a lot when we just look at the batch of earnings we just had, this has been a thing we have seen over the last year, where expectations come down, and the companies basically overperform, and there's never been a massive takedown of the out-year guidance, right? they guide down just a bit, better than expected, we rally out of it. when you look at what we just heard, think about walmart, we were talking about it earlier, that's breaking down target has not been so great maybe you want to talk to some retailers that have to deal with the fits and starts of inventory, a picky consumer, a consumer trading down, a consumer loaded up with a lot of credit that's ago we get comfortable with higher rates for longer, those are going to be the early

spots where we see some of the weakness maybe that's what some of the market is telling us. meanwhile, we have a news alert on silvergate, announcing its intent to voluntarily liquidate. now down about 35.5% on the news karen, this is a trade you have been in. >> it's not so shocking. it's been happening in slow motion for a while unfortunately when you have to come out with a release like they had to, i don't know, a week or two ago, we're not certain we'll be a going concern. for a bank, that is a toxic press release. it will be interesting to see if they expect to pay off all the deposits there's a preferred that could potentially have value people work there, and they've built the company over the last 15, 18 years so that said, i don't know what will happen to the silvergate

network, right >> which allows you to exchange dollar for crypto anytime. >> 24/7. >> which has enabled the crypto industry. >> that might be good for signature bank i'm not sure. >> it was just down in the after-hours, quickly on silver gps gate, not that we're looking for anyone to trait it where it's add, but this was less than a month ago. it's a microcosm from some of the absurdity. this is a $23 stock in the middle of february certain things have changed on the margins, but the story we have seen has been slow motion for a while. back to your question, it figures it out on its own time, but when it figures it out you see how quickly things move. bucking today's market malaise, is there more crunch in

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mongodb giving weak guidance this was a high valuation/high growth company it's the out guidance. the quarter looks great, but again, what are you willing to pay for decelerating metrics. >> now, let's move on to the chip maker bringing 2023 gains to over 65%, the stock's highest close since april. the rest of the sector surging, too. are we due for a chip dip? [ laughter ] >> i like that >> a head scratcher, if you're in the camp that you think

something is coming bad for the economy. >> tim talked about this is where you want to be, when things go really back to just bad, and clearly we've been in that arena now i think you're to the point of absurdity i want to say trading north of 20 times of revenue, north of 60 times forward earnings whatever metric you want to like at, this stock went from reasonably priced to probably as expensive as it's been at current levels what are you wishing for if it's a whole a.i. thing, knocked yourself out under the surface, some of the core businesses didn't do nearly as well as they should have. >> also raising a different, helping the group as well. karen? >> i think guy's last point is chatgpt kind of got in sector on fire again

it still seems to be on fire i don't know whether that's going to fade. i'm long nvidia, i sold some poorly, i'm inclined to sell more. >> and i'm short nvidia. none of this worries me here, based on the valuation, based on the fact that the ceo of the earnings call pointed out that we think software will be the operating system for a.i chatgpt is something that will be a material change for 2023. i don't think those are irresponsible comments, but comments we have heard also around crypto, and also what we have heard around gaming any opportunity -- >> disjust raise your hand >> it's a new format, you know. >> it just to shut me up got it. >> did we see a bust in nvidia when crypto went bust, or comme commensurate, a bust -- i'm

trying to work this out in terms of a.i maybe it's possible you can ride it a bit. >> we haven't seen anything close to a bust in nvidia, but i hear what you're saying. semis were falling out of bed for reasons. again, longer during aequities that you're banks on the future. a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: the options action on volatility as markets continue to swing. the details on that one, next. plus ev come, ev go. price cuts and production stalls put your hazards on. we're checking on the electric issues ahead you're watching facebook, live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square we're back right after this. but you're right on track to reach your goals. my ameriprise advisor helps me feel confident

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welcome back to "fast money. one options trader is betting that this volatility pullback could be the calm before the storm. chris silvio joins us with the action what did you see today >> how's it going? one thing that's interesting, when you look at the vdix, it's the way to compare the level of that today to 2017, and realize ed, in a time, convinced to 2017 so it's fascinating.

started to become really interested in this low level of vixvol jet we saw a large buyer of a couple call spreads come in. is the june 32 by 34, the july 34 by 36, and a bit over 200,000 contracts. what they did was they broke down the split, the may, the june, the july mind, to avoid the timing risk that generally comes long volatility. i think the other interesting part about this, is that during january, we saw the same sort of market participant come in by june 30 by 40 call spread in a pretty large size. so it becomes something for other participant to look at this isn't a hedge the spread is too tight. this isn't a trade with a lot of convexity to it. it's an outbet, seeking to pay

off 15 to 1 if it hits i would say, it's a pretty outright bet there >> hey, kris, there's been a lot of -- are you concerned about the values that are trading, there are some people really concerned from a market structure standpoint that that sort of trading intraday, and a lot of it is large institutional is something that is not being reflected in these levels of the vix. >> i've had a bit after ran on this it was a ton of work the last two years, and we've been reaching this. we have a ton of research on our side that really talks about the reflexive implications of these zero td options, and the growth of the derivatives market and the ecosystem as a whole jpmorgan came out with that note that they think it could lead to a down 25% day our view is not that extreme,

but it is something that other markets participants have to be aware of this sort of leverage convexity does have reflexive implications because of the dealers hedging that type of risk. i would say that, if you're playing in the options market, it's something you have to be aware of. >> kris, thanks, good to see you. tune into the full show friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time ev inconvenience, production issues and price cuts hitting the electric car maker we're hitting that group next. with the glob threats facing the u.s., why it's not just tiktok the deeper divide that could be tus.s, when "fast money" rern

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stocks closing near the flatline, dow well off the lows of the day, s&p up about 0.1, and nasdaq climbing nearly 0.5

the company has held talks -- what sorry, i read that and it occurred to me hoe ridiculous it sounds it's scripted and people will bet on it? the premiere of "last call" is at 7:00 p.m. right here i'm tuning in. >> did brian wrestle >> i feel like -- >> i feel like maybe >> tune in at 7:00 -- >> if anyone is going to cover this story, it's brian. >> dots that betting >> of course not i grew up when you used to bet on jai alai, but a bunch of dudes throwing a ball against a wall, but people bet on it this, they tell you it's rigged and they're going to bet on this

>> isn't that the kind of risk that they would know >> -- isn't this material non-public information >> they should start a fund. i'm really good at knowing how this will happen. >> i know the guy on the top turnbuckle is taking dan down. >> guy used to throw dice in the back of the allies. >> you know who we should ask, of course, is mike khouw, who was in a former life cocoa b beware you'll hear much more on "last call." is the electric vehicle trend moves its trend? rough z ford has slashed the price of its mach-e mustang.

it seems much harder than we thought it was going to be when much announced grand plans to ramp up ev and take tesla share. >> i own gm, and it absolutely falls in that camp i think 2025 was the very earlier lineup, and that's been delayed. we get to this issue of, again, is this a sale delayed or denied >> denied. >> at some point denied, i think so mary barra, who i think is fantastic has staked her career here she's been there ten year, the mastermind of this turnaround. they keep pushing back to the second part of this year -- i think this will be very difficult, but i am staying long gm >> so the lyriq, it's an suv, the direct competitor is what?

>> the one these cut prices the second time in six months. you know where i'm coming from i'm short of this. there's no risk to gm and ford delaying this. this is happening for them they don't have a choice, but they don't have to go at a speed that a tesla or some of these upstart evs have to. if this is a price war, that only gets made worse by issues with china, and potentially a recession in the back half of this year. if these a price war, tesla's earns are expected to be down 2%, expected to be 22% this is a disaster for them. >> but all of those things you just mentioned also head the leg yeah tesla has all this competition. >> really, they have to work

toward the targets whereas tesla keeps putting out ridiculous targets every year. gvm to me is a very well-run company. >> real quick, tesla traded up to the 200-day moving average, 220-ish. that stock traded 180 on the screws today 165 i think is a level it gets to it feels like it's a little more down side. coming up, tiktok on the

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most consequentially threat. eamon javers has more. >> you're right, the senators and leaders of the intelligence community seem to be concerned about the degree to which american investors have been investing in the rise of the chinese economy. senator marco rubio also wanted to talk to the fbi director chris wray about the chinese massive propaganda potential take a look. >> could they use it to drive narratives, to divide americans against each other, for example? let's say it wants to invade taiwan, to make sure americans are seeing videos arguing why taiwan belongs to china and why the u.s. should not intervene? >> yes, and a point on that last one in particular, we're not sure we wooze many of the outward signs of it happening if it was happening. >> the chairman of the committee senator warner accused american companies of turning a blind lid

to the theft of selectual property, because american companies are simply making too much money off this. senator cornyn had this to say. >> for year many american companies have been investing in china. we had a witness that testified last may, i think it was, that the current market value of u.s. investments in china were worth $2.3 trillion. in other words, american investment in china has been financing the rise of the chinese economy and the rise of their military might >> now, just based 09 tone of this hearing, you would think at least some kind of federal action is likely to come from these lawmakers in the days to come there also seems to be more appetite to scrutinize, regulate or even block certain american venture capital and private equity firms from investing in a wide range of tech sectors in

china. >> eamon, it's interesting this has been going on for decades since, you know, american companies first went into china this is seen as the cost of doing business in china, to lose part of your ip, and it doesn't seem to make a difference, but now maybe it's different is there anything to believe that now something will actually be done? >> there's been talk for a while of a biden administration order of capital outflowing, investment from private equity firms and venture capital firms, regulates those in some way beyond the military sensitive stuff that we normally think of, to looking at a wide range of things that's one possible, but i tell you, the mood in washington has changed. focused on the china threat, the entire consensus, the consensus

was, if you invest in china, you'll make china more like the united states, there will be no freedom, more like us. the reality is that investing in china makes us a bit more like them. >> eamon, thank you, eamon javers in washington for us. the next at the time would be any company that's built in any way on growth in china there's a question mark over that at this point. >> it's amazing we haven't seen apple outperforming the sector i think there's one company -- takes on huawei. i think in the last week we ratcheted up the rhetoric in a way that i don't think we've seen in the last couple years, the chinese foreign minister that says unless u.s. changes course, we're on a path to confrontation. we haven't heard this before there's a lot of different

things going on. investigating them is still all about investment, about the dollar, and the dollar is um 5%, and the em is down ten that's more important than china. >> speaking of china, activist investor ryan cohen, he's exposed to china now, right? he tweeted out today, in chinese, hello hello. >> hello >> that's what it says. >> okay. multilingual i'll give him a hello. hello to his announcement and i think january 26th -- police don't actual me if i'm 09 a day. like at where alibaba is trading today. nobody rings the bell at the top, however -- >> we want that. >> we think ryan cohen just did. that was somewhat prescient. by the way, there's a "c" in that word. more "fast money" in two

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we had a very large-scale facility come online during this year we ran production capacity in parallel for a little while, wile we got the kemping worked out, which is now coming on line at a significantly lower cost sour plan it to be normalized at the end of 2023. what can you tell us in

terms of what you're expecting and how this new facility will come online and help 2024. >> we had a lot of moving parts. in florida, in particular, leading market share, what we're seeing again indicative of what we're seeing in patterns across the board, one customer retention, which is great news, given the make roe pressure. we're seeing increased traffic, but pressure on basket so we're seeing consumers trade down mid tier primarily into our value segment. we do have, of course, where we're able to meet them where we are. we indicated q1, figure will be down mid single digits, but again that retention number some has been holding at 75%, 76%, may le key, as we see relief on

the wallet with a reminder we're a cash-only business, we expect to go set up nicely. we've been investing in a ballot initiative in florida. we passed the raw-signature count. to be on the ballot in 2024. what that would do for the state of florida we would anticipate approximately a $6 billion market with 138 million tou tourists we have the capacity coming online, look with well over 100 store locations in florida. >> kim, good to see you, thanks. kim rivers, truelieve. >> this is an industry that's going through some painful times on capital markets, and access to capital one of the great inconsistencies, if this get

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i know you know this just a reminder -- do not miss cnbc's newest show, "last call" premiering at 7:00 p.m. right here on cnbc i wish him the best of luck. he doesn't need it he's gonna kill it. >> and a great producing staff sometime for the final trade. tim? >> good luck, good luck max. altria does not need good luck. >> wishing the best for max and brian. mine is uber i like tonight's release >> dan >> yeah, last call i'm watching time cme group. first time i bought it since the report a month ago it broke out of a four-month trade.

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