the railroad saying he is, quote, deeply sorry, determined to make it right, that so far the railroad has committed more than $21 million to the community and that is, again, saying just a down payment ahead of today, norfolk southern unveiling six-point safetyplan and just yesterday the ntsb unveiling a an unusual special investigation into safety culture. this testimony will be going on for the next couple of hours i'll continue to monitor it and bring you the headlines. that's it for the "squawk on the street's" 10:00 a.m. i'll send it to carl and sara on the floor. evercore vice chair is with us, the bond bull saying the top of the two-year yield may still be out there

we'll ask him tomorrow on various report factors later on, union square hospitality group chairman danny meyer to talk about the strength of the consumer. holding onto gains so far, dow up 91. haven't fallen below that s&p 500 4,000 level. the yield curve, the biggest inversion since volker ran the fed in the '80s. we'll get the jobs number, obviously, cpi, ppi, the budget today, the battle over the debt ceiling and, of course, the fed meeting. joining us this morning as we said, evercore isi vice chair. i do wonder putting this week into perspective how prescriptive you the fed chair was and how much depends on numbers still to come? >> it's been a crazy week, even by recent standards in terms of fed signals driving the market

up, down, left and right i think there's, frankly, a lot of confusion at the end of this. i don't think powell's signaling was partly consistent. what's new is he came out more hawkish than many of us expected he clearly put 50 in play for the next meeting in march. it debate, of course, is whether he was signaling a strong default to do 50 putting in play alongside 25 with the day to decide he talked about the employment report, cpi tuesday. my read remains that he was intending to put 50 and 25 on equal footing and let the data decide i think he's saying, we need some reassurance from this data relative to the red hot data we got for early 2023 it needs to be appreciably more moderate to stick with 25,

otherwise we'll go to 50 i don't read him as signaling a strong desire to do 50 there are others who see it differently. >> right they have not stutter stepped like that since, i think, the early '90s, at the least on a 50 to 25 basis. i wonder, do you think, doing so would be destructive to the consistency of forward guidance? >> so, i'm personally not a fan of stepping back up to 50. i think it obviously served a purpose of indicating that the fed is willing to respond, even respond aggressively to this apparent data. that serves a purpose. but it has a real morning-after problem. you did 50, now what you have one more inflation print between march and may. if that isn't showing much c cooling, do you do more 50 once again you starting to show

your ability to outrun the ability to learn from the cumulative data, in particular taking into account the time lag with which monetary policy affects the economy. we still haven't seen the full impact of that very aggressive timing late last year. i would add, though, that you could advance in 25s and learn along the way and still discover that we do need to go higher we need to go into the mid or even high 5s, maybe even to 6. we do think the fed is looking at the strong data and wondering if that famous neutral rate is higher than they thought and they might have to go higher over time to that higher peak rate in order to be sufficiently restrictive. >> on the other hand, credit card debt is rising. consumer is slowing down a little bit i saw that in the beige book wage growth is moderating. there's some carnage right now in crypto-related economy. the reit particularly good month.

manufacturing is not exactly booming, krishna so, th slowing, not to mention the fact that the yield curve is now over 100 basis points, 1% for the first time in decades. >> that's all 100% correct that's really the reason why i personally would say sticking to 25s unless this next batch of data is seriously hot in the way that the last batch was. i do expect some appreciable cooling here with respect to, you know, the economy, there are parts of activity the cooling destroyed it is the case that the labor market remains extremely tight that's a cause of concern to the fed. like you, i look more at price signals coming out wages have moderated considerably without unemployment moving up yield curve is, i think, warning

us that while, you can take rates above normal, put on the brakes, cool the economy, and bring everything back into balance. and be done. in the real world it's very hard to pull that off >> do you think the market right now, or maybe in-house, is there good work being done on if there are going to be substantive cracks, right, if it's not going to be in consumer, if it's not going to be in residential, then might it be in commercial real estate are we getting a peek at that with some of the price actions today? >> certainly, every cycle there are different points of vulnerability. we've done a lot of rate hiking. it's really quite striking that we haven't had more break so far. that's part of, i think, what might be leading the fed to say -- it's more resilient to rate hikes than we have previously sensed.

of course, that's conditional on how you think about time lags. yes, so far so good. that might be determined as the higher neutral rate requiring them to do more, go higher for longer in terms if they get cracks emerge, fed's focus does remain very much on the macro variants rather than defaults in cre, but defaults in cre would be part of a larger mosaic that might show that policy is beginning to impact the economy with time limits >> also wanted to ask you about today's white house trial balloon. janice everly for fed vice chair, a lot of different publications she's the top pick from the administration. they have to replace lael brainard she was in the treasury administration, northwestern i think it's interesting the fed has gone much more hawkish since brainard left. she was a dovish force i know the data has been

stronger as well what do we need to know about the makeup of the fed and this choice >> so, first of all, you know, i think you are right that it is possible that brainard's absence right now and they face a choice with the hotter data of course, that in turn underlines the importance the world ultimately see them. eb eberly is seasoned economist, someone involved in policy with obama administration treasury, also, for instance, in the fed's strategic review, written some interesting papers here, commented on recent economic developments i would view her as a dove in the brainard tradition i think she's also someone that comes in with credibility and a reputation for effectiveness

so, in some regards it's sort of a like for like swap the important thing to remember here is it takes time for a new vice chair to build a very close working relationship with the chairman to get traction on the policy scenery at the fed board. doesn't happen overnight so, even if someone on paper looks reasonably like the likes to swap with brainard t will take time for her to gain the level of brainard's input. in the interim, it's more than normal, it will be powell's call to drive the votes >> a lot more we could get into, krishna, next time we hope you'll come back thank you for kicking off the hour. >> thank you. still to come this hour, a deep dive on the consumer. exclusive with ceo of campbell's soup why he doesn't think further hikes are needed.

and union square danny meyer joining us the market is hanging in there s&p 500 up 0.10% despite carnage in the banks materials down 1%. we'll be rhtacig bk. what if shes playing golf? it's expensive. we're outlawing golf. wait. can i still play? since we work with emower, we don't have to worry about planning for a third kid. you can still play golf... sometimes. take control of your financial future to empower what's next. you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ever better. it's when disruption hits

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welcome back big beat for campbell soup this quarter. volume and pricing both coming in better than expected as resilient consumer shows its strength in this tough

environment. i asked campbell soup ceo about that, and if consumers are not pushing back against the higher prices at the grocery store? >> i think from a broad statement our elasticities, or the impact we're seeing from pricing on volume, is certainly well below historical norms or expectations but, you know, again, we've said from the beginning that the key to this is to ensure that you're continuing to drive equity, you're building value, not just through price but how you're marketing, where your innovation is and i think this quarter was a good example of us doing that on both in places where we may be experiencing a little bit more pressure from a private label, there we've got to be really sharp when it comes to price gaps and making sure that our promotional plans and all of the pieces around value are ensuring our products stay affordable in this really important and tough economic moment for consumers.

>> but just overall across the portfolio, are you still in price-raising mode is that still happening? >> so we just finished what we described as our fourth wave of pricing. far more surgical, relatively small percent of the portfolio as i look forward in the balance of the year, i don't see a need for further pricing, although important to note that i also necessarily don't see inflation receding quickly, but from what we've put in place on pricing as well as the other tools we're using to manage inflation like productivity, that we're in a pretty good position never say never. a lot of dynamics in the macro world we're watching closely but from where we sit today, we feel good about the pricing, and more importantly the complete program we have on cost to help us offset and manage inflation >> so, no more big increases, but you said you don't see food

inflation coming down. what's it going to take to get food inflation down from the very elevated levels >> that's a great question again, to be clear, we're in a period now a little different from where we were a year ago where it's a bit more of a mixed bag. you have some costs and some areas coming down, while costs in other areas are remaining elevated so, you know, we are seeing a step down in incremental inflation. as we get to the back half of the year, we were more in the mid to upper teens in the first half we'll see that drop to more in the low double digits. but in the end of the day, we still have some costs coming through. it feels better, i think, because we're cycling some of the bigger increases that happened a year ago, but at the end of the day it's important to note that we haven't seen inflation turn the corner yet. as far as what will it take, i think, you know, we're going to continue to plot that course of some things going up, some

things going down as we watch the next few quarters unvofold. >> i guess what i'm trying to figure out in the industry at large, not just you, is whether companies are keeping that pricing to preserve margins even though costs are coming down and supply chain is getting fixed. is that what's happening here? >> no. i certainly don't think for campbell's you'd say that. i think what we tried to do is create a stable margin architecture from quarter to quarter you may have a little bit of up or a little bit of down generally our goal in mind is to try to manage or protect the profitability within the products and brands, but more importantly, ensure we maintain that value and that equity so, this is a little bit of what i talk about right now that's so important for companies in our space, is to try to get that balance right. you get a little bit focused on growing margins too fast, you may undermine the support you need on the brand, you can't

spend into a world where you're fundamentally taking the profitability long term out of a brand or category. so calibrating those variables to get the right level is really what we've been focused on again, i think q2 was a good example of us kind of getting that mix right, where margins were slightly better, but pretty stable in general. strong top line. good market share. that's really the algorithm we want to try to drive. >> you did raise guidance again. you've done it a number of times this year. but not as much as the street was expecting. i know you got a lot of analyst questions on the call about this. >> sure. >> why not >> well, i think, first of all, we would just say from a full-year perspective, we feel very good about what we said at the end of the first quarter we continue to see the things that are really paramount to the year, like the strength of our brands and our categories, the continued strong execution in

our supply chain as well as managing inflation generally on the full year, we really don't see any catalyst for significant change other than a bit more top line and better depth of understanding where cost and pricing will land for the year that's why you saw us kind of narrowing and raising the mid-point of our profit targets while raising our top line at the end of the day, q2 was a very good quarter, but i also want to make sure we're pragmatic. >> we're trying to figure out what's going on with the american consumer and just how much the consumer can take when it comes to the rate shock and the price shock. is it a recessionary thing when campbell soup is doing so well and you're seeing strong growth in categories like soup, or the opposite >> yeah, it's a very interesting question i think what we can all safely say is the pressure that the consumer is feeling is there, right? we see the behavior of more in-home meals.

over 80% of meals right now are consumed in the home that's up about 400, 500 basis points we were pre-covid originally it was covid but now we're seeing it sustained in the economic environment we're in, where people are increasing the reason for that being more about driving value. so, that is a very good thing for us as a business because so many of our categories, whether you think about soup or pasta sauces or even snacking for in-home consumption, that plays very well for our portfolio. so, i think however you qualify the economic environment around us, what i would say is, consumers are certainly feeling the pressure and the more that we're able to do, especially in a world with so much inflation, to try to continue to give them a path to great food that they love, that they're feeling great about serving to their family, but doing it in a value way is just a very important goal.

>> innovation, too i'll pay just about anything for the frank's red hot gold fish, which are back and better than ever i have to compliment you on that mark, what about labor this was a big challenge for you and the industry coming out of covid, just hiring workers, having to pay workers more, availability of workers. where are we on that >> yeah, we're in very good shape. look, i think as is sometimes in these moments, these challenges become a catalyst to look hard at ourselves and make sure the proposition we're offering to folks in a very competitive labor environment is compelling. and i think our team has done a tremendous job making sure that not just that our pay is competitive, but really the full proposition, right when people come to work for campbell, do they feel they have line of sight to a career and building opportunities over time this is how we win collectively the battle for talent.

>> mark clouse, ceo of campbell soup i asked that last one, but a lot of staple companies, them in particular in the last few years, that got hit by shortage of workers, people taking extra sick time out of covid the fact we're in good shape says a lot about the labor market and how things have healed as far as availability from workers my biggest takeaway, carl, is inflation is not going up still in the same levels when it comes to packaged food he talked about surgical price increases. he talks about having done a lot already and costs starting to come down. the question is, when do those inflation rates actually go down there hasn't been an answer on that. >> my thought was he sounded more pepsi than nestle, in terms of we'll wait to see what we do, if at all. >> the bottom line is, people are eating at home now he qualified it for value reasons not just for covid

at-home reasons. they're spending more on things like soup and snacks and packaged food because that's the prioritization here in the household. so far, these package food companies are able to see strong growth on the back of it. >> i don't think it's necessarily driven by price. people work at home, you have more occasions to eat at home. that just makes sense. >> we'll talk to danny meyer about that. >> we'll talk to shake shack founder, and the consumer continues to spend but the wealth is not being spread around the way it was a year ago. we'll look at some numbers finally, a programming note. do not miss "last call" with brian sullivan tonight and every night 7:00 p.m big repremiere last night. n'gonyere.

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welcome back time for today's chart you can't miss we're looking at new consumer spending from b of a they point out after a very strong january, consumer spending somewhat normalized last month credit and debt card spending per household still up 2.7% year on year. we have a detailed sector breakdown of where the money is going and the shift from goods and experiences continues. airlines, beauty, dominating spending furniture and clothing falling this was ratified by citi's findings the day before. >> it's no wonger ulta beauty goes up every day and trading at a high this is not a simple picture of whether the consumer is slowing down or feeling the pain if you ask a furniture store or

electrical appliance maker like a best buy, consumers, they're seeing morerecessionary type behavior but look at the airlines, hotels and grocery stores and they're seeing the consumer boom i think the overall headline on this bank of america report is that february consumer spending still good but did significantly deteriorate from that very high january number, which does make you wonder if there were things going on like the weather, the cobra benefit increase on social security and other factors that helped january >> they did have one line in there about lower income households kind of hanging in relative to people, say, who make more than $125,000 a year you would expect maybe a sharper drop-off given what we're seeing in some credit -- revolving credit growth and delinquencies but that's not showing up quite yet in the data. >> the pressure from the company color about the lower consumer hurting more we heard it from the affirm ceo. bank of america continues to point to the fact that savings

rates are elevated, deposits are elevated pre-covid and that's creating a nice discussion for the american consumer. the question is, how long does it last? >> yes. let's get a news update with bertha coombs. >> hey, carl general motors is offering a volunteer buyout so what it calls a majority of 58,000 salaried u.s. employees. anyone who's been at the company for five years or more more details on that story coming up later this hour. norfolk southern's ceo alan shaw is telling lawmakers he is deeply sorry for the damage done to the people of east palestine, ohio, and making communities by the derailment last month that released toxic chemicals in testimony to a senate panel this morning, he is promising to clean the site safely, thoroughly and with urgency. and the treasury department is imposing sanctions on an individual and entities based in china and hong kong, accusing

them of supporting iran's drone procurement efforts. sara, back over to you >> thank you, bertha after the break, look at meta it's already up more than 50% so far this year, but one analyst out today saying another 50% surge is in the cards. that call is next. throughout of month of march, we're celebrating women's heritage, sharing stories of women leaders across business and those of our cnbc teammates and contributors here is regent cruise line's president andrea demarco >> my advice to women is to follow what you love find that true passion in life and work in that industry. what i found to be really successful throughout my career is i've always looked for ways to challenge myself, really push myself outside of my comfort zone, think out of the box and learn new things and, of course, as a mother of two young kids, i'm always juggling whether it's a work or at home, finding that work/life balance is always going to be a struggle, but having a really strong support system in place will do wonders.

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welcome back just after 11:30 a.m. on wall street 4:30 p.m. in london. european markets cautious, closing off the low as investors digest the powell hearings this

week and also look ahead to jobs report credit suisse, continuing to drop delaying its annual report after receiving a last-minute call on s.e.c. on how it records its cash flows that stock is down more than 5% already this month the story abroad in europe, not just in europe today, it's also in china overnight wanted to highlight this a softening inflation print out of beijing, taking its toll on chinese stocks february cpi growing at its slowest pace in a year at about half of the consensus estimate, carl it was surprising because this is the great chinese reopening it does make you wonder if the consumption recovery isn't as strong as had hoped for. that's the bad news. the good news could be, everyone worried the chinese reopening was going to export inflation over here and make the fed's problem worse. maybe not so much. >> ppi, at least wholesale inflation, outright negative year on year, which was interesting. as for europe, bespoke had a great chart. did you see this yesterday >> no. >> the s&p is about 14% from a

52-week high the europe stoxx 600 about 1%. that spread of the index relative to 52-week high hasn't been this wide from u.s. to europe in 50 years. >> they're getting a weaker euro, that certainly helps look, even though the rate expectations for europe have been climbing as inflation has stayed also very hot there, still less than the u.s. in terms of the expectations for how high that rate is going to get. also the valuation argument people keep making on europe that it looks cheaper relative to the u.s., which is the place to be. >> fascinating and confounding a lot of market players, that's for sure. let's get post to post with bob pisani for a look at an ipo, bob. that's what it says, ipo. >> i'm so excited. do you know how long it's been since -- the crowd of people on the new york stock exchange. i'm sew nostalgic.

this is atlas energy solutions, an oil and nat gal provider in the permian. 18 million shares at $18 there's raising $320 million it's the second biggest ipo of the year it's been another dismal year for the ipos we've got indications here, but 17.50 to 18.20 it's a little bit below that nobody cares just that you are getting an ipo is a really big deal here. in terms of what we have for the year, we've got a little over $8 billion in ipos going on here. the historic average, $55 billion a year it's another year below average ipos maybe it will get better in the second half of the year. with interest rates this high, a lot of people are going to have to take haircuts on their valuation on pricing there you see what's going on here 2023 ipos year to date, $1.8 billion. now close to $2 billion, including this ipo today

finally, i want to note here, the regional banks are having another tough time a lot of macro issues we've been talking about, commercial real estate exposure, higher rates putting a lot of pressure on them the kre, the regional bank index is, oh, since the lowest level in a couple of years right now so, there's a number of them, including pnc, fifth third and others that are essentially sitting at 52-week lows. those are the big downside movers today i'm just excited to see people on the floor and an ipo. guys, back to you. >> people on the floor, wireless cameras, you're at the post. >> all is good with the world. >> that was genuine enthusiasm. >> that's right. you can't fake that. >> giddiness, bob. love that. let's take a look at one of the notes grabbing our attention. meta platform, implying more 50% upside as it outperforms the streaming giant 50% year to date

let's bring in julia boorstin. what is mark trying to say here? >> what he's saying is there are two things happening at the same time for meta. the first one is there are all these monetization opportunities, improvements in ad targeting, a lot of progress made after all those limitations put by apple's operating system. the fact they have a huge opportunity in messager. they're getting better at targeting ads through machine learning don't forget that ai is being used by meta, too. not to mention the fact fa reals, the short-form video content platform, is making gains in terms of monetization and also doing pretty well relative to the success of tiktok, which we talk about all the time that's the upside opportunity. now, what they are talking about in terms of the bottom line is the cost cutting meta is expected to do more layoffs. that's expected to be announced as soon as this week both evercore a long with ubs and also oppenheimer, all three of them issuing notes that mention the fact that there are

cost-cutting opportunities and that if meta cuts more costs, that will be meaningful for the bottom line. some analyst notes speculating 2500 more employees could be cut. that's coming from ubs so, ubs reiterating buy pick because of that layoff opportunity. i think it's important to see how they see the upside levers in terms of generating more revenue, and then on the earnings side, on the bottom line, the opportunity to really use that cost-cutting to their advantage. >> what a difference a year makes, julia everyone hated this name last year and now they're all embracing it big time i guess what a difference cost cutting makes. >> and what i would also say is the fact that people aren't talking about the metaverse anymore. they're no longer criticizing meta for being focused on the metaverse. they're looking at how ai and machine learning could help metaverse with their core business, which is advertising market and measuring the impact of those ads. >> thank you for weighing in on

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ahead of tomorrow's jobs report, let's take a closer look at the restaurant industry leisure and hospitality services have been leading the charge january's unemployment gains, up by 128,000 in the sector inflation is driving up pay for restaurant workers, which has brought them back to the industry in record numbers joining us now, union square hospitality founder and executive chairman, danny meyer. good to see you. >> good to see you >> how is the labor market situation for you? you joined us a number of times over the past year saying it's so hard to find workers. >> it is exactly a year ago today, without any question, the biggest thing you would hear from any of us in our industry was, why is the great resignation hitting our industry harder than anyone else? here we are a year later and there's a lot of reasons for it, but a year later, i think the hospitality industry is leading the league in terms of hiring people. >> so, workers are coming back

>> workers are coming back a big part of that is women in the workforce coming back. i think that the more flexible schedules that restaurants are able to provide saying, you don't have to work friday and saturday night dinners you can work for lunches also in offices, i think more women are coming back to work and i think that's fueled a lot of it. as you just said earlier, there's no question that as menu prices have risen, think about what that does for a tipped employee your tip is a multiplier of the menu price people are making a lot -- >> i thought you were no tip >> we went back to tipping during covid because it was inhumane to tell our servers, you must not accept the gratitude of our guests. here's what we did at the same time in reinstituting tipping, we instituted a revenue share for our nontip eligible employees so that when the restaurants get busier, they get to earn more money.

that's helped us with employment as well. >> you just talked to campbell's a little bit about food costs, input costs. i know the market doesn't flip on a dime, but are you seeing incremental progress on that front? >> we are, carl. without any question the greatest four months of inflationary, like, rocket zooming up was probably last spring through early summer. and we're seeing a lot of that moderate by the way, it's not the same across the board where are we seeing benefits dairy is coming down eggs are coming down that was a horrible thing. a avocados, limes, all of the things impacted with the trade provisions with mexico, are coming down. if you're dealing with those kind of commodities, you're seeing some softening. meat proteins aren't going up but also not coming down. >> what does that mean for your pricing? you want to keep it here as long as you can or -- >> we hate raising -- listen, restaurant companies hate

raising prices because there are so many restaurants, the last thing you want to do is stand out as being a price gouger, so we've had to get smart we have a much, much more data-rich environment where we are looking at menu costing across the board with software that we've never had before, with people on our team who are smarter than they've ever been we will do anything to not continue to raise prices >> do you think there's a day -- a lot of menus are on an ipad, for example, where you could do dynamic pricing, a steak could cost you $60 today, $62 at dinner >> you could let's also name something for what it is if you're talking to me about the full service restaurant industry, not just in new york but everywhere else, mostly the consumers who are dying to go out to eat, if anything, there's more demand than they've ever had. this is a different story than if you're looking at campbell's soup, who is thinking about a different occasion for their meal >> well, that's why i was

interested in the demand picture because more americans are eating at home in this economic environment, also coming out of covid. but you're still seeing the strong demand in restaurants >> we're seeing a stronger demand than ever our january was 24% higher than last january now, keep in mind, last january we were facing omicron so, that was good for a good ten points right there still -- >> what about february, is it holding up >> february was just as good so i'll knock on glass right here we thinkthat people need to be with people. and the demand that, you know, was built up, as you were talking about earlier, people were buying furniture and goods like crazy during covid. now they want experiences. they want to be with people. >> why isn't office occupancy pushing past the 50% mark? it's crazy >> you're right. i will share a couple of interesting things we've seen.

lunch business is just as good as 2019, tuesday, wednesday and thursday it is off 50% monday and friday. we're picking that up, on the other hand, because more people are going out to eat at 6:00, without gray hair, like mine, than i've ever seen in my entire career a big part is, if i'm working from home, i have to get out of the apartment. furthermore, my boss isn't seeing me leave at 4:30 in the afternoon. so we're picking up a lot of business on the early part of dinner. >> the new york economy is always interesting because it doesn't necessarily or respond with the rest. there was a chart that rent has barely budged. in the beige book, which i've been citing a lot from the fed, in the new york section, i pulled this out for you, carl, shows that tourism is doing extremely well in new york right now. in fact, broadway shows is seeing pick up in attendance and more shows here's the quote for carl.

attendance at broadway shows has continued to improve and a substantial number of shows are scheduled to open. >> that made the beige book? >> yeah, made the beige book >> and bob on the floor today. things are picking up. >> so, new york, tourism, what are the special factors impacting us here that doesn't happen >> ever since i've been in the restaurant business, there's been two big drivers, notwithstanding things like pandemics, but the two biggest drivers have always been how is wall street doing and how is tourism doing? when those are going well, you can bet on new york. >> last thing, ai, chatgpt, chatbots it's been one of the obvious use cases people talk about is in quick service food are you looking at it? >> we are. in fact, our fund has invested in a couple of companies doing that one is called converse now, which means that when you pull up your car at your favorite restaurant for a drive-through

experience, they'll be able to not only speak with you but know exactly what you like, an upsale it's a good product. >> is it going to hurt employment in the industry >> it's a reaction to decreased interest in working in that job of taking people's order when they pull up their car >> danny, great to talk to you, as always. >> always great to both with you both. still to come, silvergate capital, sb financial losing a third of their value signature down as well we'll talk about why and the broader impact on some of the regional banks we're watching etsy as well. double downgrade at jeffrey's. you did read about it more at cnbc.com don't go away. at morgan stanley, we see the world with the wonder of new eyes, ♪ helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real.

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welcome back time for today's "tech check" and a look at the crypto banks let's send it over to deirdre bosa >> carl, i will look at two banks here because they're both getting crushed this morning the first one, silvergate capital, massive bet on crypto continues to unravel and the other one is silicon valley bank, very much tied to the tech startup ecosystem let me get into the first, silvergate capital shares are down another 20% today. it will shut down amid the route of crypto and follow highest profile customers. what is different about silvergate, though, than, say, an ftx or genesis is that silvergate is not a crypto

native company this is a traditional fdic insured mainstream bank that made a huge bet on crypto and it sparked a run that force it had to sell assets at a loss to cover withdrawals. with its liquidation the ecosystem loses the so-called rails or the infrastructure that connected the traditional financial system, the real world financial system, to the crypto, the digital sector so that further separation has hit bitcoin as well, perhaps ironically remember this is supposed to be a decentralized currency, but what this shows us is that part of its proposition is tied to its integration with traditional finance. the other one i want to talk about, silicon valley bank i know you have been watching this as well, a bank at the heart of the venture capital ecosystem falling 40% today on worries about that ecosystem so as startups raise less money and burn through it faster svb feels in its deposit growth. here is greg becker, the ceo, on "tech check.

>> what we are expect to go see in 2023 first half, venture capital a little bit more of a decline, even from what we saw in the fourth quarter. the second half was going to create that modest improvement and really set the stage for a better '24 so we're optimistic because our crystal ball is a little clearer than it was in the third quarter last year. >> but maybe not clear enough and its mid quarter update yesterday the bank said that client cash burn remains about two times higher than pre-2021 levels and it has not adjusted to the slower fund-raising environment. as a result the bank announced plans to sell more than $2 billion in shares to shore up its capital base some could argue, though, guys, this is a stock down 40% and you could argue that it's a little overdone today. just 3% of total loans are to the earliest stage companies and the majority are capital call lines that private equity and venture capital investors can draw on before they get cash from lp. so it is a very big move

it's down about 70% in the last 12 months. alongside the frozen ipo market and this tough fund-raising and cash burn environment for startups. >> it's a great point about a number of the financial that is recently have given guidance at conferences and it hasn't been that bearish, but we're keeping an eye on it. >> it's a turn in the credit cycle. it's higher rates and it hits some of the vulnerable banks like this. if you're a depositor, you have to be freaking out these are pretty intense moves >> powell talked about run risk. deirdre bosa, rents reaching new highs in the big apple robert frank will break it down after the break. stay with us what if you were a trendy apparel company facing an avalanche of demand? to ensure more customers can buy more sherpa-lined jackets, you call ibm to automate your it infrastructure with ai . now your systems monitor themselves. what used to take hours takes minutes.

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your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire we briefly mentioned it a moment ago with danny meyer, wall street is buzzing about renting in manhattan with february numbers just hitting their highest levels on record, robert frank had the story for us i said they weren't coming down, but i guess, robert, what, they're going up >> reporter: yeah, they're definitely not coming down some measures they are going up. average rents in manhattan now $5,200 a month

the median rental price is the preferred measure is now $4,100 a month up 11% over last year, marks a brand-new record for any february real estate forecasters had expected rents to start falling in january instead, effective rents paid now have been rising for 18 straight months in manhattan these rents are not yet deterring renters. the number of new leases jumped 44% over last year, up 17% over january. that strength is across the board from studios to three bedrooms, downtown, uptown, one slightly encouraging sign here, guys, inventory, the number of available apartments for rent up 32% over last year that brings the overall vacancy rate to only 2.5%, still way below the average. and for now landlords aren't willing to lower prices until we see much bigger uptick in inventory. so, guys, this is not a good sign for jay powell and those who hope rents will start falling and add to that deflation.

they're only going sideways and even up a little bit >> it's like we say, robert, it's the city where everyone wants to live and no one wants to go to work. >> it is bizarre what is keeping these rents high we're out of time, robert, but thank you very much. unfortunate for those of us whose rentsare up in a few months >> indeed. a pretty tight price action. let's get to "the half." carl, thank you very much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center, less than 24 hours until the biggest moment of the week for your money, the jobs report looming large now. the investment committee sizing it all up for you as well. joining me for the hour today josh brown, joe terranova, amy raskin and jim lebenthal let's check the markets. we're a few seconds past 12:00, noon, in the east. we are, as carl said, kind inform a holding pattern here. nobody wanting to make too many big moves ahead of tomorrow morning, the release of that report the smtiga barely positive the nasdaq better.