tv Fast Money CNBC March 9, 2023 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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the question of, does it get that sonos premium buyer playing music in the party, and also buying etsy decorations, you never know. >> it's a little bit rich. >> indeed. nothing wrong with being a little bit rich. that did it for "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. john, thank you very much. right now on fast, bruised and battered from the regionals to the big money center banks, it's been a most painful day the biggest loser, silicon valley bank, more than cut in half we'll go inside the crushing day. plus the president's budget set to take a bite out of your investments. the massive proposed hike for high-income individuals. then bob iger's l.a. fireside chat, from cost cuts to hulu and
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espn, and succession not the show, his succession. and an electric rebound for a once mighty dow component, why ge is one of this year's big winners. in for melissa lee, i'm tyler mathisen welcome to "fast money." on the desk tonight, tim seymour. he's really on the desk, here with me, the two lonely. julie beals, jeff neil and guy adami, welcome to everything thank you for letting me join you, we start with the brick breakdowns the regional bank index down today falling to the lower level since january 2021 svb financial leading the losses, off more than 60%, lowest level in nearly seven years, losing $161 a share the stock the work performers in the s&p 500, a factor of four,
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the losses come after the company said it was looking to raise capital, to help offset losses from recent bond sales. the rising interest rates over the past year have depleted the value of bonds, of course, sparking concerns over just how much the company's securities holdings are actually worth. maybe even more concerning, it wasn't just the smaller lenders that got hit all seeing outsized losses today of 5.5 to 6.5% or so, adding to what's already been a rough month for the starts all of this taking a toll on the broader market as well the major averages closing lower, the s&p now just 2% away from giving up all of its gains from the year so far let's start with you, guy, are silicon bank problems and
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silicon vaccie problems a sign for bigger issues for the market >> i know tim said this before the show, and welcome. cnbc royalty is in the house i'm sure a lot of people were talking about how it's not systemic, silicon valley specific to a certain extent, that's true with that said, silicon valley basically encapsulates all the things going on. a bit of venture capital, a bit of assets, a bit of duration risk, and a bit of just maybe poor risk management, not understanding what's really going on is that specific to them absolutely not i'm sure they're scouring their balance sheets, trying to figure out what's going on, but in my opinion, i don't want to say the tip of the iceberg, but when there's one, there's many more for many who thought banks were going to lead us out of that,
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think again. >> julie, carry on >> it's a safe thing to do i agree with guy it's really hard to differ differentiate, but i was thinking duration mismatch and suddenly you have to be selling assets it's not a position i want to be in it's technically not even the only one >> tim, if the banks can't hold on, can the market hold on >> we know there's a big difference between the money central banks and what's going on with some of the regional banks. if you look at silicon valley
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bank, it's the largest weighting there. they're at about 2%, 120 bips right there of the sell-off. what is happening, tyler, we have gotten to the place where we have breadth, seeing transports, industrials, banks, and not seeing everything explode. this is idiosyncratic to a couple lenders their venture-backed business has been contrasting drastically. i would argue this was a levered, you know, mortgage-backed security holding bank, and i think some of that is unique to them. i do think that a lot of banks, because of the what the fed has done pushed them out the yield curve, pushed them out into asset-backed securities and thing, the mark to market on these things will not be pretty. in fact, that's what svb had to do last night. some of this is macro, some of
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this is idiosyncratic to banks that i think the risk management was terrible. >> i'm no expert on banks, but it's generally not a good sign >> no, it's not, but i think you do have to differentiate between what's going on with silicon valley bank and what's going on with the six larger bank, but the 20-something large banks i've been no cheerleader of the banks at all for the past 12 months, but this does seem like a one-day overreaction back to guy's point, i think you did hit the nail on the head, in terms of this generally being a sign of the macro times. that's why i'm still really not in favors of being overweight the banks. sort of outside of what we're talking about here i think the economy gets worse before it gets better.
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there may be some cracks in the labor market not necessarily a good sign, and we've already seen some of these cracks if you go back a couple weeks, some high-profool real estate defaults, so there are some things going on. you want to be careful -- i think the commercial real estate exposure is about five times as large. i feel like banks are not a good place to be for relative outperformance this is in no way, shape or form, some sort of crisis situation. banks are generally in fundamentally good shape they're generally cheap, but not a place for outperformance. >> jeff, put a "let's come back to this" because the big number comes out tomorrow that would be a telltale i don't mean to use a fancy word, but there'sic a lot of
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torpor in the market. >> boy, go look that up, everything. >> i felt a heaviness going into the 2:00 program things just started to get heavier. then in the after hours, they weren't very bad, in some cases they were pretty good, but the stocks were doing this, what is that a sign of >> well, it's important for me to know the definition of the word, but i'll get in my head and then come back with it this way. >> clearly today fell like a bit
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ofsh it's typically bringing more toward a, you know, we traded down to the 200-day moving average last week, and it got bullish in the very short term well, we got close, but now we have closed below the valuation is starting to matter again and -- i don't want to use systemic risks, but some of the tag-on effects when bad news is bad news, that's going to be a problem you mentioned it the jobs number tomorrow will be a huge tell. >> the vix had an 18% move higher today we haven't seen this move foof while. with you talk about this
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impending emotion, feeling, today was the kind of day that market was reminded of what tailwind risks could be out there. you've had a lot the things that at least tactically you could do with the markets, and frankly earnings haven't fallen apart. money center banks are fine, but the point i would make about banks, i like forward to the next conversation, because their mark-to-market portfolios in a world where there's been department station in rates -- remember, this fed -- it's not the biggest move the fed has ever made, but it is from zero, and it is close to one of the biggest moves ever in history. let's add spice to the stew with gerard cassidy. welcome. what do you make of today with the sector, the silicon valley
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bank and other things, how concerning is this to you? >> tyler, there's always concern when you see stocks move so dramatically it's just a unique situation with a few banks when you think about silicon valley in particular, you have to remember in 2019, before the pandemic, the company had about $71 billion in assets as of the end of '22, $211 billion the security portfolio went from 29 billion to 128 billion. they were the sweet spot for what we saw in the equity markets during the pandemic. as you all recall, the ipo market in t2021 was off the charts thiscompany has so much money to put to use. they put it in bonds the yields went the other way -- this is the critical part, this
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bank is different. they don't have low-cost consumer funding like most of our banking do when you look at the bank of america or a regional bank, these companies have 40 to 50 to 60% of funding from small consumer deposits, less than $250,000 at silicon valley, that number was 2.5% that's tough when the bond market is doing what it's doing. so, to put a point on it, compare with the banks you just mentioned, their source of funds is, what >> very good question, tile her. the source of funds for the traditional bank is consumer dep deposits they about how long it takes to build consumer deposits. it takes decades
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when you -- we're not going to left our banks with the checking accounts thinks of the deposits with $5,000 in them, those are gold in this environment. the banks are a those banks are okay the sell-off was unfortunate it was indiscriminate. >> so why did this happen? are we imputing a back securities portfolio on a lot of these regionals? but how about the biggest banks with the best balance sheets in the world? >> i think you're right. as you guys talked about, we have to make sure the federal reserve gets in inflation under
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control. we're not going to see a terminal rate of 5, 5.5% therefore, if rates go much higher, they become more of a problem for everybody. we have to remember the banks are now forced to sell these bonds. they are not credit risk, but you need the funding, that right side of the balance sheet to ride it out. >> two legends in one night, tyler mathisen and gerard cassidy. september 17th, 2017, the overnight repo market blew up. i'm choosing that word there's signs out there of a reverse repo market. to me that was the beginning of what we saw subsequently in 2020 any concerns in the repo market and what it might be telling us?
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>> guy, not yet. thank you for your compliments i would say certainly not. you know how large the reverse repo market has become with the federal reserve doing what it's doing, but so far it seems to be pretty much under control, compared to what you said in 2019 guy, i'll go back a little further. if you go back to 1980, this is the problem that the savings banks had in new york city, which is what you said with silicon valley >> jeff, jump in >> my com week i totally agree oimplts i do think that today was a bit of an overreaction thinking about the make roe
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economy going forward, how do you think that translates into bank performance more broadly outside of what we're talking about today? >> jeff, you put your thumb right on it. really, today was unfortunate, but we'll get through this, in my opinion, and it's really all about credit every time we've gone through a credit cycle, if it turns out to be really bad, that's when the banks suffer the most. '08-'09 was tough. here's the keep part if the fed has to continue to raise the fed funds rates, because they cannot get inflation under control, we will go into a hard landing that means bigger credit problems, so to your point, that is the macro call. we're not suggesting that. we think we'll get the terminal rate to five, and somewhat of a soft landing the banking have to go through a
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stress test every year, which is extremely difficult. they're better capitalized, and credit is very strong. when it comes, they'll be able to weather the storm, but that's what we're watching. but that is what we are watching >> gerard, always a delight, and your fire looks so warming and love by behind you. >> thank you. i want to be with a nice cool -- >> exactly coming up, folks, we have some earnings alerts shares of oracle and ulta on the move after reporting profits we will bring you the details, next. plus, a ge gem, shares surging to five-year highs today. the guidance o othe utf investor day, ahead we'll be back in two
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c'mon! welcome back to "fast money. earnings beat with oracle. frank holland is on the ball and into that quarter. hey, frank >> hey there, tyler. shares are down, but a little higher than immediately following the call just listens on the call, they talked about the a.i. capabilities a miss on the revenue after analysts had expectations, thinking oracle on-permits business mate get a boost and the cloud business may get a booth from the a.i. capabilities >> oral kay a.i. provides more relevant sales oracle a.i. increases infrastructure performance and security with no human
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intervention and customers using those gets a.i. as a service. >> all right we may have lost frank there momentarily. tim, do you want to jump in? then to jeff. >> this sell-off to me comes from a stock that's one of the few near its 53-week high. if you look at greater than 70%, the stickiness of the business model, valuation, i think you're buying this weakness. >> how about you, jeff >> yeah, i'm with tim here i think the cloud is the up side for the stock. if you look at the numbers compared to microsoft aws, they actually look pretty good. i talk to the analyst who covers the name, he called it the dark horse of the cloud race. so i think all those things are very important this is heavily exposed to large enterprises, so i think the
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churn, even in the slowdown of the economy is lower than, say, a salesforce, which is a stock we also own, but as tim said, this is a stock with a pretty good run it's not screamingly cheap here, but i would be buying this weakness as well. >> is this a quiet giant we ought not to ignore. >> tim mentioned it as well. it went to $89 we had a trouble for a few weeks. we sold off a bit. valuation is reasonable, maybe it fell off 16% cloud growth, but is it a quiet giant? yeah if you want to play a game, tyler, would you rather, and i would -- in the game of salesforce versus oracle, at these levels, i would rather oracle let's move to ulta beauty.
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still dropping after hours seema mody is standing by with more hey, seema. >> hey, tyler, expectations were high, the stock up about 10% year to date blowout comp sales for the fourth quarter that's nearly double the analyst estimates, however, it's 2023 comp sales forecast came in below wall street targets. that's why the stock is down we saw skin care outperform ariana grande's perfume and more were cited as drivers they have plans to open 25 to 30 stores this year, while ulta is expanding its partnership with target kimble says luxury beauty, that is an emerging market for ulta they said they're looking to add
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new brands to all categories >> julie, let's trade ulta here. this has been a stock to my casual observation that everybody seems to love. this is probably one of the best categories in retail beauty is pretty important, that it does well in good times women love to spoil themselves my question sometimes is, what does this do when tiktok goes away that's obviously where guy and i learn all our makeup tricks. i don't know [ laughter ] >> overall, what is impressive is the level of margins really, really solid margins in a rising cost environment, even with spending to boost their labor force, paper people better, and they're holding quite good profitability. retail is generally a space i don't love, but i think of the
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category this is the best. >> do you have to share any makeup tips you learned? >> well, i mean, tim is deflecting a bit you don't need that, being the handsome man you are, but julie and i have talked about the importance of blending it's detailed stuff. this stock is a monster, and the sell-off is probably just taking profits, but look at their margins, their comps, i don't think you run very far from the stock. >> guy is blended. >> and when you use the term resilience in beauty, it brings it right back to you being here today. here's what's coming up next >> the abcs of ge's threes more details from ge's
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three-company spin-off as investor day wraps up. plus, president biden's new budget plan and the capital gain changes that could be on your radar. the details are next you're watching "fast money," live from the sdnaaq marketsite in times square. we're back right after this. so, am i still on track to reach my goals? the plan we created can withstand uncertainty. lately everybody has opinions about the economy,
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the first time your sales reached 100k was also the first time you hit this note... ( screams in joy) save 20% with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first. welcome back to "fast money. ge shares doing just that, hitting the highest level in five years after it determined the 2023 guidance.
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oppenheimer and bank of america upping their price targets it's now up more than 40% this year they haven't been able to say that in a long typhoon, jeff >> yeah, the stock is up a lot that's my only problem with it the price has doubled. the p/e has gone from 14 to 22 i would be watching the $90 level closely, but revenues are showing some solid momentum. i think the sales are good, but i think a lot of that is reflected in the price i don't know that you need to chase it here. i think you can probably buy it lower. >> mike khouw is here with some options action in ge mike, welcome. are you feeling bullish? are traders feeling bullish about this >> they are, but i think they're
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in livan we saw five times the daily options, and based on the move we saw, a lot of that was activity expiring but the activity that i was looking at was the april 100 calls, over 3200 of those trade to about $1.40. that lulled some institutional print. for those inclined to press after the big move we have seen, risking about 1.5% of the stock price making best of the stock rally could continue >> mike, thank you very much be sure to check into options action every friday night, 5:30. >> what you do on friday is extra. >> a market flash on silicon valley bank, a warning being issued, the stock adding losses
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in the after hours seema mody has details. >> tyler, the story continues, extending their sell-off the ceo telling venture capital clients to, quote, stay calm separately bloomberg reporting that peter thiel -- are combining their companies as more investors hit the sell button here. >> whenever a ceo says stay calm, it has the opposite effect on me. >> it does and gerard talked about the funding dynamic is why they could wade through this. this was a levered reit on some left crypto and obviously vc-backed stuff. they are involved in half the deals that came in 2022. risk matt i think is terrible.
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>> jeff, a thought here? >> this is 100% about the depoverty base whether you're so you go to a jpmorgan i think it's 49% i think it's generally healthy across the board there pay attention to loss loan-to-deposit ratios if they look a bit stressed, i would be careful here. >> guy >> real quick, tyler elizabeth young tweeted the only financial higher was moody's so this anecdotally, and general announced a $500 million plac placement, in a private placement. i think it was supposedly priced at today's close, but you're
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looking at the after hours this would be worth watching as well coming up, folks, biden's budget bump, the tax rate proposals that could seriously impact your money. that is next bob iger taking center stage today. what he had to say about streaming, cost cutting and the future of television stay in front of yrsou, as we will be back in two minutes. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orto your style . personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.
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welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets today, if we must. there were losses. they accelerated into the close. the s&p down 1.8%, nasdaq dropping more than 2%. the dow plummeting 550 points, or thereabouts, losing about 1.6% and shares of gm dropping nearly 5% after that company said actual off buyouts to the majority of its salaried workers, the move part of a plan to cut $2 billion in two years
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this is all ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. julie, whatever way you want to go with it, what are you thinking >> thank you i think what is interesting is we're thinking about the employment reports happening tomorrow we talk about all jobs being the same, but really, i think what we're going to see in the coming circumstances, seven months is salaried employees where employment has been so strong, will continue to taper off payrolls have gotten too bloated, but hourly workers, those jobs cannot find enough people to be filled. so i think it's going to be an interesting situation, where your white-collar workers will be facing more pressure and those on the front lines will be facing less. that's important implications in terms of what you want to be invested in, and also just the
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economy at large. >> give me a specific there. what would be something you would do or not do as a result of what you just said. >> let's talk about retail, since i hate talking about retail i would want more exposure on the very high end and low end. i think the midmarket consumer is in that trouble how many will them hiring 17 social media managers, and they'll go down to two i worry about that mid-level income president biden officially releasing his budget today one of the way he plans to raise revenue and lower the deficit is to go after investors. with americans over a million a
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year in income robert frank is here to take us inside the numbers some of these are really breathtaking >> they are, tyler you said is before, big time a big headline is that plan to raise the capital gains rate to almost 45% there's two parts. first, he proposes raising the tax on long-temple games from 20% to 39.6% that would tax investment gains the same assalry or wage income. this would apply to those with income over a million, including any realized gain. he also wants to increase the net investment income tack to 5% so you add that together with the 39.6, you get a long-term tax rate of 44.6%. if you live in california and sold your tech stock, you would
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pay a combined state and federal of 57.9% on the sale if you're unlucky, or lucky enough to live in new york city, and sold your apartment, you would face a combined sttack ra of 59.4% and then a minimum tax rate of 25% on all unrealized gains. that's any increase in the value of the stock or business, even if you didn't sell and realized any -- a lot of complications for investors. >> i can hear florida calling, but let's talk about that last thing, which is a wealth tax, right? that's not an income tax that's a 25%, what, of unrealized wealth gain it would tax you? every year >> tyler, that's exactly the
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right word it is a wealth tax so the administration says, no, this is an additional tax on income, but they are now classifies unrealized gains, which you and i would consider we89, because you haven't sold, as income. this is one time of wealth tax they're going after wealth, both sold and unsold. >> and that capital gains would apply only to people with incomes over a million, and it would apply only to those long-term assets that you sold that were more than a million. the person who owns $400,000, $200,000 who sells mutual funds shares, their capital gains rate stays 20%? >> that's right. until this plan, if you have under a million in income, with both income and gains combined,
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you wouldn't be subject to this tax. i haven't figured out if it's truly a marginal tax, or is it 39.6 plus 5 on everything? this willed be revolutionary it would tax invest gains the same as wage or salary income. thank you so much, robert. i can sense we'll have reaction on this. >> taxing unrealized wealth that's to me so ludicrous, when you think about the volatility in housing how do you measure that? this is dead on arrival. this is the thing that comes on a bad day in the market. i don't think this has anything to do with the market's move today? >> i sort of great with tim on that. >> hey, tile her -- >> yeah, man. >> are you a fan of the beatles?
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>> i am. >> you recall "revolver" album "tax man." as tim said, this ain't going to fly. >> i don't know if there's a trade here, because there is no one that i've heard of today who says this is really anything more than a kind of posturing, a tem template, a blueprint for the 2024 campaign. he's put a target on the backs of the wealthy and investors, but whatever let's move on. for more on the budget plan, tune into "last call" in about an hour's time, brian will be joined by the former trump chief of staff mick mulvaney plus cathie wood at 7:00 p.m. tonight right here. meantime, coming up, morgan
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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. morgan stanley's tech media and telecom conversation continued today, and bob iger had a lot to say about the future of the media giant. julia boorstin has the details >> bob iger laid out his priorities for the next two years for disney he stressed a focus on profitability, both looking for opportunities to cut costs, and be disciplined with spending, but also evaluating opportunities to raise prices, particularly around the company's streaming business he also said there's opportunities to license more content externally, and he also
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noted that he's bullish on disney plus, but negative on lynn noor tv the jury is still out on hulu. he said it hasn't had the growth they need in order to be profitable as for the parks business, he was bullish saying it is somewhat recession resistant, but they have to make sure they don't overprice the parks. >> when he says linear tv, is he talking about abc or abc and espn, et cetera? >> i think he's talking about all of the above the old-fashioned bundle, and he's talked about the shift over to streaming in the meantime, they have to maintain that linear tv building, and making sure that the revenue they generate and the profits they generate from streaming can supplement or replace what's being lost from linear tv.
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the other thing to keep in mind is the advertising business, there's a lot of questions whether or not it will feel a contraction this year. thank you very much. julie, let's turn to you for a thought on disney. >> it's interesting hearing them talking about we're going to try to harmonize our costs relative to what we expect to generate in revenue. basically that's how all the streaming companies have been working -- if we build it, they will come. it would be like building an entire neighborhood without a zero idea of how to price it i think there needs to be -- i think it's an important first step to understand profit act of this business. very interesting thank you. straight ahead, up to the mind developments with the stock
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shares of silicon valley we have new reporting of companies pulling money out of struggling bank. hugh son is on the phone what can you tell us >> there have been headlines that the community has broadly encouraged the portfolio companies to pull out the money with the exception of 250k, which is insure. i talked to several, and he basically said he woke up this morning to calls, texts, messages over various apps like signal and telegrams, basically saying that people were concerned about the stability of silicon valley bank. over the course of the day, he pulled out half of his deposits which were in the tens of millions, and left the other
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half basically he's going to watched stock and the communication from silicon valley bank over the course of the next few days. at the end of our cal, he noticed the stock had been down another 20%, and set he made to pull more money out. the other asset -- my question is how hard is it to get uses money ute, is it difficult it's essentially five clicks on their portal, so it didn't take long for him to do it. other ce ceos have told me the portal was a little slow, perhaps a lot of people are logging on, but in general it's not hard to remove your deposits that is part of the problem. >> can you do it right now after banking hours? get my open out and it's basically sent over to whatever bank i want it to go to?
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>> i don't think it's an issue with after hours i think, you know, the issue is -- we'll see over the next few days, but this is the kind of thing that tends to feed on itself. >> certainly is. this will certainly by one we'll watch overnight, into tomorrow, to see how the situation evolves. hugh son, thank you very much. we're going to take a quick break. up next, we will be back with your final trades. i think i'm ready for this.
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♪ time now for our final trade. around the horn, beginning with you, guy. >> you're a stud i just want you to know that if gold is going to work, now is the time gdx, tyler. >> jeff, go ahead. >> you know, tyler, i've been plugging my fame acronym like there's a cash prize at the end. i assure you there's not, but meta, i think it's a good value. >> julie next. >> you know, with rising rates, i don't like banks, being
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something like a health equity gets rate exposure >> tim. >> oracle, you deserve that, folks. check it out. thanks for joining us today on "fast money." melissa lee you know what happens next, "mad money" with jim cramer starts now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and put days like today in context. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet yes mt. jimcramer. well, it sure took long enough eight rate hikes from the fed.
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