exposure was the one and the other bank, silver gate that lick tated, that certainly is not totally unrelated to this one, but a different case. great to see you have a great weekend. >> you too. that's it. what a day >> what a day. another hour to go and then a long weekend. >> that's right. and it may be a long weekend thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. "closing bell" is coming up. thank you very much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott walker, live at the new york stock exchange. the make or break hour begins with stocks down and fear up, about the fallout from the collapse of silicon valley bank. other bank stocks, especially regional ones plunging again big questions about what this all means for the fed on a day when the jobs report comes in hotter than expected here is the score card with 60 mince to go in regulation. the dow on track for a fourth straight day of losses there is the s&p 500 reaching a key technical level yet again. down 1%. a look at yields very much a part of this story

today, dropping like a stone on fears the economy is careening towards a recession, and the impact that all of this might have on future rate hikes. that leads us to the talk of the tape as we look at yields there and saw what they are doing, the svb earthquake, what it means to your money, the markets, in the days and weeks ahead let's ask or guest, liz ann saunders, from charles schwab, good to see you on a big couple of days here how you are thinking about all of this? >> so, it's hard to separate the effect of the jobs report on the change in expectations for a 50 basis point hike, and obviously the svb situation, i think it may have a bit more to do with the latter than the former but i think this is clearly an example of something breaking, you know, the old adage of the fed tightens until something breaks and there is lags between changes in monetary policy and the hiking campaign started a year ago and this is one of them of course, as you all have been touching on, we don't know yet

the contagion effect there are unique circumstances around this bank, with regard to the size of their investment portfolio, the fact that they weren't subject to liquidity coverage ratio, so it doesn't look like this, we can assume that there is serious contagion here but it is also not surprising to see the industry getting hit from a market perspective, because things like bank runs are as much about psychology as they are things like liquidity and funding problems >> sure. the word of the day seems to be, at least as it relates to what's happening with the banks, more idiosyncratic than systemic, but nonetheless, you mentioned the most important point of all, and that is something breaking so are you worried at this moment about something else breaking, if the fed does what it says it still will? >> so again, you've got long and variable lags, we're all familiar with that terminology, and that means that there is

likely more impact coming from what has happened already. and i think that, you know, the fed and powell himself are perfectly aware of that. they talk quite often about the fact that inflation is inherently a lagging indicator, and that the effects of changes of monetary policy are in the future so they just have to assess as they go along. i would be surprised if there weren't other things that break. maybe not directly related to the problems of svb, but to some degree, we're already seeing breakage in terms of things like the weakness in the housing market, other areas that are clearly in recession within the economy, even if we're not in an overall recession. so i think there probably is more negative news now, whether the fed steps in specifically with regard to something breaking, this, or additional things, you know, history is mixed on that subject. you know, with the s & l crisis

or the orange county crisis, the fed did not step in, continental illinois, they did not step in, in the early stages of the nasdaq collapse in 2000, the fed did not step in, so i think they're not likely to step in in this situation until the point where it's either a serious system-wide problem, or inflation has been combatted sufficiently enough that they can look towards easier monetary policy. >> maybe the difference in this case from the ones you mentioned from throughout history is that they're the ones who are to blame here, right? i mean you can draw a straight line from what they've done, and how they've done it to what we're even talking about today, so i don't know if that has any influence whatsoever on what they may or may not do, but maybe this is a little more idiosyncratic, too. >> yeah, i mean, look, we can all be armchair quarterback, and the fed themselves concede that they probably kept rates at the

zero number and the balance sheet at $9 trillion longer than they should, but the bottom line is that's in history and whether that was the big mistake, fed error, yeah, that probably was the case, but there's nothing we can do about that at this point so now, the fed is in a position to do what they can, even though they might have gotten started a bit late, and you know, a lot of people think that they're using the playbook from the '70s, because inflation has been driven by the same things as occurred in the '70s that's not the case. what they're trying to avoid are the fits and starts of monetary policy, sort of declaring victory with inflation having come down, easing policy, and then inflation rears its ugly head again, that happened a couple of times in the '70s, leading volcker having to come in and pull a volcker. so the recession, if we start to see something more of a systemic problem, do they ease back on the monetary policy lever?

or maybe they solve any liquidity problems via the balance sheet, not the, not via the rate side. >> does this make you change the calculus on let's say what it was two days ago does it change your calculus what the fed may do? when powell was on the hill this week, it was higher faster for longer we started talking about 50 basis points moves instead of 25 is that off the table in your mind >> well, the market is certainly saying that. i mean it's been a complete boomerang. we were at about a, less than a 25% likelihood of 50 on monday, and that jumped intra-day on wednesday, to more than 80%. and we're back down again where we were on monday. so we still got a cpi report, my guess is that if the market's expectations stay on the low end of the spectrum, and we get a less hot cpi report, it's hard to think that the fed kind of goes against both of those and does 50, especially if we don't get any common concerns about svb and any potential contagion, so yes, i think the likelihood

is 25 at this point, but i think aside from the banking system issues, the cpi report is the next big tell, and we'll have to see what market expectations do when we get that >> i mean had svb not happened, and you just had the jobs report to go on today, what would you say? >> you know, that's a great question i'm not sure i know the answer to that. because it really was a mixed report there was something in it for everybody. you saw the stronger-than-expected payroll number you did get some downward revisions. you saw a weaker number on the household survey you saw the easing on a month-over-month basis in average hourly earnings. but we know that gets biased by mix shift. given that a lot of the hiring has been down the wage spectrum, a lot of the firing has been up the wage spectrum. that has an impact on a metric measured as an average, not as say a median so i'm not sure if the jobs number in and of itself would have moved the needle all that much i think it really was the svb

situation that probably was a larger contributory the move down in those 50 basis point expectations. >> let's bring in john moury now, liz an, chief investment officer at the investment group. at the new york stock exchange you are the epitome of a bull in this market. you come on this show, you give me all the reasons, always, and our viewers, too, about why you should be bullish, don't listen to all of the bears. what about now >> well, i would step back and say the reason we were so bullish going back to october is because cyclicals were way too cheap and to be quite candid, cyclicals have led, and pharmaceuticals are down year to date, and staples are down year to date, j and j, procter & gamble, all of the names that people were rushing to to be defensive have backfire and they have lost money. the semi, the cyclicals, they have led, and this was not a top-down call, it was bottom-up decision that we made that the valuations were too attractive i will pivot today is a very big day.

and the reality is with a large bank failing, this is the first time we've seen this since '08 and i remember, i started my career in '06. i remember that in '07, when bear stearns were falling, people said hey the building in manhattan is worth more than the stock and it was consensus that this had to be a buy and it got worse and worse and i think the real risk that the fed is facing is it does lead into a more contagion type scenario and the reality is, if you think about what the fed has now, they have a problem, because on the one hand, they've been focused on taming inflation, and now, they have to think, okay, do i have a banking system crisis, that could be brewing, and people are lining up outside the bank to get their cash out today, and that happened with wachovia, it happened with wamu, so it is a real problem for the fed, and you have three forms of tightening going on. you have qt. you have higher rates. and now taking one of the biggest banks out of the system, that is a drain on liquidity. >> is it a problem for bulls like you it sounds to me like you are maybe changing your view, given these events >> well, no, a couple of things i would say about that the first is that defensives

have gotten cheaper, they have been underperforming for six months now we are seeing some utilities come back. we are seeing some staples we had increased some exposure to staples as they have gotten cheaper but risk is not necessarily inherent to the asset, it is always relative to the price you pay. what do you mean by that and when you see valuation dislocations is, there a certain valuation that the risk makes sense? so i don't think you should just step away from the risky assets. in fact, when i look at the financial system, it had been recapitalized, they do have much healthier balance sheets today than they did, and i know that is the consensus today, throughout the day, on the shows, but the reality is, it is true so i think that if you step away from risk, what is your alternative? >> what's your alternative >> how long do you have? >> right, hasn't that question changed? >> well, i mean you could sit in cash that's not a great way to meet long-term objectives you know, if you're buying short-term paper, a lot of people who are doing that are losses people were stepping into shorter-term bonds at the beginning of the year in october, they have small races

getting defensive is not rewarding you, it has hurt you and you have to be focused on the fundamentals i would argue that areas like some of the reits, some of the discretionary names, they are attractive how can you have reits, okay, expensive when rates are low, and then more expensive when rates are high, that does not make sense to me. >> bear with plea for two seconds. phil labeau has breaking news regarding boeing what do we know? >> scott, check out shares of boeing moving higher, after the faa has said that they have done their analysis of the paperwork that boeing and its supplier have filed regarding a component for the 787 dreamliner, essentially they have said you're clear to begin deliveries of the dreamliner next week so boeing says that they expect that that will likely be the case remember, this has been two or three weeks now that they have halted deliveries of the 77 dreamliner, but they did not stop production. and this is not a safety issue that impacted the use of

dreamliners in service around the world. so it is not a huge surprise but it is official now, from the faa, that they have completed the analysis, and likely sometime early next week, we will likely see boeing resume deliveries of the 787 dreamliner scott, back to you. >> all right, phil, good stuff thank you for that update on boeing that's phil lebeau for us. liz ann, when you see something like john mowrey who is here and thinks the story is more positive than people have let on and points to numerous places within the market where you can still find good opportunity, and where risk is worth taking, that's the key, that risk is worth taking in certain areas of this market, what's your response >> my response is that what i would maybe say that is a bit different from what john said, is i think there are opportunities within the market, but i think you have to be really careful about assessing them at the sector or industry level. i think it is more important to think about them at the factor level, the characteristics, and

in an environment where we've got higher volatility, and a lot of uncertainty, you have to look at the macro forces that represent things that are dear, that are less ample out there. so in a rising interest rate environment, where now there is liquidity risk, you want to look for companies that have strong balance sheets with high cash and low debt they don't have to come to the funding markets. they're self financing whether enwe're in a declining earnings revision environment, look for companies that have positive earnings revisions, positive earnings surprise, shorter duration companies, in a higher inflation, higher interest rate environment. you want those near-term cash flows and earnings not way out into the future. i think things are still expensive there. look for dividend growers. not just dividend yield companies. and in a tougher pricing environment, companies with pricing power. and i think you can apply that analysis across the spectrum of sectors and/or industries,

because within any even industry, you can have a wide array of companies in terms of their level of attractiveness on those factors that i think matter most. we have the return of the risk-free rate that means fundamentals are reconnecting with prices, equal weight doing better than cap weight, and active having, active management having one of the best years in many, many years. and that suggests more of a factor-based approach in this environment. >> so before you came on last time, in your note, you called financials increasingly attractive, quote-unquote. do you still feel that way today? or are you a bit hesitant to urge people to look in that space, given what we're still trying to figure out is the fallout from svb >> well, i do think the financials are very interesting. i mean you're seeing some of the larger - >> you said attractive last time. >> well, they're attractive. if you look at the larger banks, they're responding pretty well to what is going on. i think that is an indication they are healthy with the

balance sheets increasing the dividends and the reality is the fed has made it clear they will have to step in, like they did with lehman, if you have some type of issue. so again, i would argue the valuation discount, the stronger balance sheet and the net dividend growth and i totally agree with liz ann, you want pricing power and dividend growth and you're getting that with a lot of financials and also other areas our portfolios, our roas and dividend growth, higher, and i totally agree with all of those comments but again, i would step back and say if you blew out of all financials, in the first quarter of '09, or in the fourth quarter of '08, you didn't get back in that's the reality you did not get back in because it was too dark, too hard, you had to stay invested through those periods and i do think as an active stock picker, it is a time where you have to be assessing those idiosyncratic risks and build portfolios that are defendable in a more challenging environment. >> liz ann, i think what has surprised investors to start this year, to say the least, the way that technology has performed relative to what it did last year, and the fact that many weren't positioned for that and it's not lost on me today at

all that the nasdaq is the biggest loser of the majors. and i'm wondering if what we're witnessing out in silicon valley is the thing that reverses that trade, because of the, you know, dramatic and still somewhat unknown impact on the innovation economy out there, and tech is going to be impacted one way or the other by the events that are still unfolding. now, it may be from, you know, the bottom up, the smallest up, rather than the top-down facing some of the largest, but the innovation economy to me seems a bit upset to say the least by what's unfolding >> well, i think that brings up, if you think about what the letters svb stand for, there's been more focus in today's action and today's commentary, on the "b" part, the bank part, but it may be the focus should be on the silicon valley part and what it says, at least in

their case, who the customers were, the fact that it was a high percentage of nontransactional accounts, and i think it's part and parcel to some of the failures we've seen in other areas, and in keeping with the very high profile layoff announcements and certainly, not every company, but when you're in a zero percent interest rate environment, financial repression, and the lack of price discovery that comes about with that, we're sort of seeing what happens in the aftermath of the most aggressive tightening cycle, and i don't think for many companies, and i wouldn't just blanketly say this about tech, we can't look at it monolithically, but for many companies that were long, long, long duration in nature, you know, some of the factors associated with a tighter monetary policy environment are coming home to roost >> we'll leave it there. liz ann, i appreciate it very much have a good weekend. see you soon liz ann sonders. thank you. the question of the day.

we want to know how many more times will the fed hike rates after the svb collapse will it be once? twice? maybe three times? head to @cnbc closing bell on twitter. we will share the results later on. and top stocks to watch as we head closer to the end on this friday. >> scott, take a look at docusign, the worst day since june, despite beating estimates on earnings and revenue. jpmorgan downgrading the stock to underweight citing increased competition from adobe and microsoft along with docusign's exposure to challenge markets like real estate venture capital-based fundraising spaces the stock down 22% and peloton is extending this week's decline now, heading for the worst week of the year, the sell-off really intensified when regulators announced a ban on some imports of the company's devices, because of a patent dispute. peloton telling reuters it was disappointed in the ban, but does not expect it to impact users. nonetheless, shares are down as you can see here

scott? >> thank you. we're just getting started here on closing bell up next, the silicon valley bank fallout. first, rick heitzmann, he breaks down how this could effect startups and vcs you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. real zero energy is coming... and yes, that means cutting carbon emissions... but it also means cutting costs. we've been investing in american infrastructure for thirty years... lowering electricity costs today, and protecting from volatile energy prices tomorrow. so walk with us— and let's make cutting energy costs real.

think he's posting about all that ancient roman coinage? no. he's making real-time money moves with merrill. so no matter what the market's doing, he's ready. and that's... how you collect coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company. i promise - as an independent advisor - your money never stops working for you with merrill, to put the financial well-being of you and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

everything's changing so quickly. before the xfinity 10g network, we didn't have internet that let us play all at once. every device? in every room? why are you up here? when i was your age, we couldn't stream a movie when the power went out. you're only a year older than me.

you have no idea how good you've got it. huh? what a time to be alive. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. the future starts now. everything's changing so quickly. before the xfinity 10g network, we didn't have internet that let us play all at once. every device? in every room? why are you up here? when i was your age, we couldn't stream a movie when the power went out. you're only a year older than me. you have no idea how good you've got it. huh? what a time to be alive. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. the future starts now. we have to make sure that both our employees, our customer, and our investors, we're protecting the things that we, have so that's what we're looking to explore but they just

came out and told us it was blocked down. >> we tried to get in. phone lines were blocked online access was blocked. and we have our phones there, you know, we have to pay salaries >> of all things that i think through, as ceo, you know, there's been a lot of hiccups over the last nine years, a lot of lessons learned, a lot of wisdom has come my way oopgs, thinking my bank was going to fold for one of my accounts was not anything that ever crossed my mind. >> you just heard now from a number of silicon valley bank customers. amid the fallout from the tech-focused lender. so how will the svb collapse affect vcs and the entire startup ecosystem? joining me to discuss that rick heitzmann, of first mark capital. good to see you. you've been with us for so many steps along the way of taurking about this industry, what have the last 24-36 hours been like you? >> they've been crazy. like bear sterns collapsed and

people asking, what does this mean for me, can i make payroll next week? this is an existential crisis that this has caused for many companies. >> what about your exposure, for the company and personally, what is it, and what was theirs to you, if any? >> so fortunately, i was a customer, i have very little exposure, as a firm, we were customers, both on the lending side as well as just the depository, we obviously, like everybody else, have some depository issues, but it doesn't create any risk at the firm we're probably more concerned with our operating companies, we're thinking about, what are they doing with their deposits, the key thing, that you thought you had, you know, years of payroll, except if you only had 250 grand, and what does that mean, can you even process payroll if you're caught in the svb system today >> you say you have some depository issues. that's the language that you used that tells me you've got some deposits with them that you might not get back, is that

correct? can you expand on that >> that's correct. as of right now, and i mean obviously, it could have changed since i sat down and that's the way it has been changing over the last 24 hours, right now they're saying hey, you can have access to $250,000 of your deposits but anything beyond that is unsure unsure of both the amount and the timing and you know, no different than the other company, you know, you don't want to hear money you thought was safely deposited, you're unsure if it's there, and when you can see it again. >> how many of your portfolio companies have exposure? >> there's tiers of exposure as we talked about some of them have depository exposure some have payroll exposure some have just day to day banking exposure that they can't send wires out they can't pay their bills and i would say most companies have been touched by this in some way but most companies, i think, for the benefit of being old, and having seen this before, is that you know, we've been generally conservative, diversified, have multiple bank accounts, think

about how you're using leverage, think about where you're keeping your money, think about liquidity in the short, medium and long term, so i don't think there is any existential crisis in the portfolio, there is going to be a lot of anxiety for the next several days. >> i am trying to think of what the -- you used the words existential crisis i'm trying to think of the bigger picture issue, whether it is in fact that for the innovation economy, as i have been referring to it today, what it means for the future of founders and startups and venture-backed businesses, the ability to not only, you know, draw capital, but vcs and their willingness to deploy it >> so taking a step back, silicon valley bank was a key cornerstone in the innovation economy, for the last several decades. they were -- >> 40 years? >> yes, out of most, in the business, 25 years ago, you doesn't go get a bank account, you got a silicon valley bank account and that was part of your standard issue, vcs funded, it used to be the term sheet,

because everyone knows and trusts them. they were a real pillar of how you grew up in life sciences and technology over the last 40 years, first, silicon valley and then everywhere else now as that is eroding, it is just going to erode trust. i think a lot of these systems that we worked through, jpmorgan, a lot of other money-center banks have gotten into the technology business, it has become so big and that enabled our companies to diversify, but it is rattling in a way that other large bankruptcies are rattling and it just shakes folks' confidence. >> another interesting question would be, does the fallout now stunt the growth of some of these younger companies, because of the lack of access to the capital that they thought they either had or were still, was to come, and the ability to go public, is that pushed out further because of this? >> to a certain extent, i think it is stunted in two ways. one is hey, if i can't make payroll, i am not going to

invest in my own growth, if i'm unsure how much cash i have in the bank, i will be much more conservative how i will innovate on product and technology. the other thing that is not obvious is there are a lot of people who might not get paid next week and worry about payroll and if you're thinking about hiring that next person, whether it is from google, or from jpmorgan, the chance that they walk across the street and start a company, or join the startup, which is really the life blood of how this works, it has decreased, as the risk factor is perceived to be much higher >> i've asked you numerous times you've come on with me, whether evaluations had re-set enough, in the private markets, out there, and most had said maybe not, not yet is this, and i've asked about this earlier as well, whether this was the final shoe to drop in that regard, and this is that thing that finally brings valuationless down to -- valuations down where they should be for lack of a better word. >> we kind of got to a little bit of a bottom and bouncing

around the bottom but we also said there were be several other black swan event, unintended consequences of rates being so low and going up this is a downstream effect of that i think you're going to see a couple more high profile blowups, you know, in private companies, in public companies, that got careless about managing their balance sheet, got careless about what are the downstream consequences of macro events >> you mean specifically within tech >> and svb, a financial services company and tech customers, i think there will be a couple other over the course of '23, people that know the name of, that will stop existing. >> really? wow. that's a scary thought >> but at the same time, you're getting from the system, and we're probably, you know, halfway across the lake, and we have no choice but to keep swimming and i think most people understand that. >> and i appreciate you sharing your insight with us and our viewers. rick heitzmann, first mark capital. up next, navigating the

volatility, an ugly week on wall street to say the least. we hear from one top financial adviser, what he is telling his clients today, and where he's finding some stabilitymi ad all this turbulence. we're back on "closing bell" after this this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep,

so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

back here on the closing bell, we have a little less than 30 minutes to go you want to see what at least in part a flight to safety looks like take a look at that on your screen here. 460 is the yield on the two-year note why do we highlight that it was just, what, not even a handful of days ago, we were talking about a close above 5% for the first time since june of '07. well, that's what happens when you have a bank failure like we had with silicon valley bank maybe it's out of concerns about careening towards a recession. maybe some of the fallout, too, about the fed's not going to be able to hike as much as they talk about because of all of this fallout, but keep watching the two-year keep watching the 10-year. the move in the two-year, i mean

we're at 5%, a 40 basis points move that's just incredible in and of itself over the last few days. there's 3.70 on the 10-year. we were talking about that at 4%, too. we will watch that along with stocks the dow is down better than 300 points with a little less than 30 to go the s&p 500 is closing in on its worst week of the year by the way, following that stronger-than-expected jobs report regulators shutting down the banks, we talked about today, and our next guest says that the market storm clouds are likely to stick around for a bit. let's bring in cnbc contributor malcolm of cic wealth welcome back your thoughts? >> it is good to see you, scott. it's interesting, at the start of the day today, call it 8:31 a.m. to be exact when the numbers came out, the payroll numbers came out north of 300,000, i was absolutely certain that the fed was going to use that for cover to go 50 basis points at the next meeting and then the news around silicon valley bank, and all of a

sudden, i don't know which direction they will go i think this is probably the most precarious position the fed has been in since we started this particular cycle, and that's, you know, the last year and a half that we've been talking about them having to do something aggressive to fight inflation. i think this is the toughest call the fed has had to make throughout that entire cycle because on one hand, we've seen just how hard those initial rate increases, going so fast, and so high, have impacted the financial sector but there's also an argument to be made that there's still some work to do on inflation, long-term inflation, and that's the fed's mandate. so it's a really tough call, heads you lose, tails i win scenario and i don't know why anybody would put new money into the market today unless there is one or two particular spots that you've been watching for some time and you absolutely can't think of a better entry point than the one you see before you today. >> so this makes you more

defensive just by nature of the unknown that still lies ahead? >> that's right. i have gotten more defensive in the very short term, even before today, saying to folks that you're better off hiding out in the two-year like you just pointed out which is going to get you somewhere between 4.5 and 5%, why bother tipping into the pool of risk, when you know with certainty where you can get some yield in the short term and see what happens, and that was heading into the meeting before i knew the silicon valley news would break and there would be questions circling around the financial sector so i don't see why investors would want to be chasing this particular downtrend especially in the financials, because we just don't know how much contagion there really is. and not even necessarily from a technical perspective, more sentiment-driven than anything else >> let me just ask you this before i let you go. let's just, for argument sake, and the sake of this conversation, say there's no contagion, okay, this is

idiosyncratic, it is not going to have a run-on or systemic, b force the fed's hand and it will make the fed stop sooner than just a few days ago, it sounded like they were ready to do why isn't that bullish >> doesn't the market still have to fall at that point, since the consensus that i was fighting against, i think back in january, i was on with you, and i was saking that i think anybody who is saying that they're pricing in a cut toward the back of the year is making a mistake, and there's absolutely no way the fed decides to start cutting. dy think we would get a pause but i thought a cut was absolutely ridiculous. and now, we're making the case that the cut is already baked in, which means that it's got to come back out, right if we're saying that we get a pause and nothing else, or we continue to get raises, that lessens the likelihood that that cut happens, and if the market has been, you know, in positive territory in january at least, because of the expectation for that cut, then that has to come back out somewhere, and i still

think it is a bearish signal in the near term until we find out exactly what the fed's plan actually is in the next meeting in a week or so. >> malcolm, we will talk to you soon appreciate you coming on with us malcolm ethridge, and we will see what happen what develops over the next 24-48 hours. up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. >> scott, we are going beyond the regional banks where else we're seeing selling, including the industrials. take a look caterpillar, 5% on pace for the worst day in seven months the tul story coming up.

what does it mean to be ever better? its your customers getting what they ordered when they expect it. discover how ryder ecommerce makes your customer's experience ever better.

your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

(funky electronic music) matching y(narrator)scription. all in. as in, never partway in. never halfway in. all in is more than just buying in. it's investing in... her. them. him. and them. do they look "sort of" in? this is a place you can live in, build in, move in, thrive in. if you're all in, it's all in north carolina. ranked america's top state for business.

less than 20 minutes until the closing bell, and we have a sliding market the dow's down 436 1 a the russell 2000, lots of regional bank exposure small caps down. we have a look at the key stocks we need to watch as we inch toward the close. >> and some green, gold prices surging as we watched treasury yields fall and the dollar weakening, following a hotter than expected jobs report, and

gold miners up 2 to 3% back to the sell-off industrials are lower, adding to the big pain of downgrade of caterpillar, analysts cautious about caterpillar's mining and oil and gas business raising concerns also about the exposure to residential construction other big movers in the xli industrials etf, deere, united rentals and delta airlines down. >> thank you very much. less chance to weigh in on our twitter question we asked how many more times will the fed hike rates after the svb collapse one, two, or three head to @cnbc closing bell on twitter. we'll bring you the results after this quick break but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. ♪♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. ooked an appointment

and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation. ♪♪ inner voice (kombucha brewer): if i just stare at these payroll forms... my business' payroll taxes will calculate themselves. right? uhh...nope. intuit quickbooks helps you manage your payroll taxes, cheers! with 100% accurate tax calculations guaranteed. real zero energy is coming... and yes, that means cutting carbon emissions... but it also means cutting costs. because now clean energy is more affordable energy.

we've been investing in american infrastructure for thirty years... lowering electricity costs today, and protecting from volatile energy prices tomorrow. so walk with us— and let's make cutting energy costs real. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones

- [announcer] payroll takes too long. at least it used to. now, there's roll, the app that makes payroll as easy as sending a text. you. you're slinging tacos and you've got a minute between orders to handle payroll. what do you do? step one, type 'run payroll', respond to a couple questions, and that's it... done! and they're paid tomorrow, not four days from now. if you know how to send a text, you know how to use roll. go to getroll.com/tv and get your first three months free and unlimited payroll. come on, mario. we are going to stop that monster. oh, ho! only in theaters april 5th. rated pg. the results now of our

twitter question we asked how many more times will the fed hike rates after the svb collapse one, two, three? three wins 48%. up next, a regional bank rout, that group proved deep in the red today, again sinking as we head into the clos look at the losses 20, 30% blus percent we'll hear from an analyst what might be the next domino tfao ll and what it might mean for your money. that and more when we take you inside the market zone

i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones i screwed up. mhm. i'm so glad we did this. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo!

i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. i'm a new york hotel. i'm looking for someone who needs a weekend in the city.

you hungry? yeah, i know a place. it's the city that never sleeps. but hey, if you need a last-minute spot, i got you covered. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity let's do it. we're in the closing bell market

zone 10 minutes to go before we ring the bell mike santoli sitting next to me. there are a number of things to pick on today. dow is down 430. yields, wow. 40 basis points, and no time, it feels like for the two-year. that's the big switch. yields being down with stocks down, clearly, the relationship has changed to where obviously there's a safety bid in treasuries, it's a lower yield relief that is not helping stocks that's because we're afraid of big scary stuff at risk from the financial system and of course the potential economic repercussions of that as opposed to something else. you know, people have said that often does happen in you look at previous long bear markets where at first higher yields in the fed are the enemy and then lower yields and the weakening economy are the enemy. you can't say we're skipping over that phase. but that's the complexion the market has taken on. maybe some of it trying to reflect, maybe the fed won't be able to do as much as we thought, just a few days ago.

>> no doubt about that. >> senior economics reporter steve liesman joining us now what are you hearing at this moment >> you know, i want to lay out a fact here, a fact play here for you, scott, which is 87% of silicon valley banks deposits were uninsured the percentage for banks of similar size is 40%. they were really running on the edge here. and the idea that, which everybody is trying to figure out, right, if you're an uninsured depositor at silicon valley, you want to know more detail for everybody else, the only thing that matters is this a one-off or something bigger, broader? the extent that this bank had flighty deposits, i was asking sheila barren about the structure of the bank and here is what she told me she said it is a good reminder, banks that have to rely on uninsured deposits are subject to runs i think that is on one hand

self-evident but owner, the regulators, where were they, scott should they be concentrations as much on the liability side of the bank plete as they were -- bank balance sheet as they were on the asset side. and sometimes looking at what is the bank holding in terms of assets to offset the liables without looking closely enough at the liabilities themselves. >> let me ask you this then. if it is deemed to be a one-off, because of, you know, just the part of the structure, the nature, et cetera, is that less than, less of a deterrent for future rate hikes from the fed than otherwise would be the case i mean you know what i mean? >> yeah, ilgt's a good question, scott. i'll answer it two ways. i think yes it is, but the fed has to make sure it's a one-off, and the one-offedness, the idiosyncrasies of it, it has to

be perceptions, so it has to be that investors, depositors, folks understand that there is a reason to be confident in the bank, and that may be a reason for the fed to do a little bit less i think the fed still has an inflation problem. still probably wants to address that with a meaningful hike, depending upon the cpi next week, scott. but if it's required, if it feels it's required to help restore some confidence in the banking system, to do a little bit less, i think the fed might, because i think we're talking about this earlier, in the things that the fed cares about, usually systemic risks and the sank sanctity of the banking system is in the number one pole position for them. >> i sure as heck hope so. you're going to be a busy reporter this weekend. i have a feeling, steve. steve liesman, thank you, joining us david, the managing director of wedbush, covers regional banks for us good to see you, too how are you thinking about this fallout in your space? >> it's crazy days for sure.

nobody, you know, a sill von valley bank closing its doors two days after announcing an equity offering. it is leading to some opportunities but bigger picture, it is shining a light on some of the stresses that we're seeing on the overall banking industry we're seeing, the fed is doing what it set out to do, raising interest rates, leading to liquidity coming out of the system, and lowering the size of their balance sheet, so it is putting pressure on deposits, so i think you guys hit the nail on the head earlier in saying regulators focus so much on the asset side, but it's the deposit side that many investors are focused on these days. >> sure. but if this leads to tighter lending standards from banks, especially some of the smaller ones in your universe, what are the more broad implications of that >> tightening lending standards, it absolutely could lead to less credit availability. and if there's less credit

availability, then you could see the economy slowing, and then with an economy slowing, some of the borrowers may not be able to pay back the loans that they took out so then you could see higher credit costs for the banking industry so on the deposit side, as well, you've got higher deposit costs coming through, which is going to lead to, you know, slowing expansion for the groups some of the there are several head winds for the banking sector, and we've been cautious on banks, and many of our top picks are defensive names in the group. >> interesting david, thank you we'll talk to you soon. meg terrell joining us now on the sell-off in biotech names tied to svb. it hasn't gotten a lot of attention today, but if you say tech is one, life sciences, 1-a, in terms of the fallout for some of these younger companies an these startups out in the valley that are impacted. >> yes, you're absolutely right, scott. you're seeing quite a lot of reaction a lot of nervousness in the biotech space right now.

people are trying to figure out what the fallout is going to be and which companies will be the most affected. if you look at the biotech etfs that we track mosly, the xvi and the ivb, and the second one is down more. check out biotech's exposure the bank works with nearly half of the life sciences companies, which i think you pointed out earlier about. 12% of svb's $173 billion in deposits are life sciences and health care companies. and so what you're seeing now is that analysts in this space are reaching out to all of the companies they cover, and asking them what their exposure is. so far, everything we've seen back for at least the publicly-traded bioteches is that the exposure is minimal, they're not expecting a huge effect of this the effect is expected to be seen most on the private companies. and right now we have not heard from any companies, they are saying this is going to be a major problem for them what i'm hearing from the people in the space, in the cross

venture capital and the biotech management is there could be short term issues with making payrolls, things like that, but it is not expected to be a huge driver of extreme disruption there will be some disruption. and we're going to have to see how it shakes out going into next week. hearing a lot of stories about companies not being able to pull money and not being able to do it right now. >> meg, thank you so much. for that, we have a two-minute warning there it is. right on cue as we head toward a close on this friday. mike is going to wrap it up for us with the last word. terminal rate, 6%? >> it looks a little more of a stretch right now. so that was the thing, the thing to be worried about coming into the week a little bit of relief. but not really for the best of reasons. i don't think anything could have happened on a friday afternoon to embolden anybody to really add a bunch of risk, because of the unknown factor of what might happen over the this this weekend that being said, i think the

regional bank group, down 18%, month to date, so you kind have taken 100 plus billion of market cap off of that area, that is pretty close to the kind of haircut we're talking about on the asset side, in terms of the unrecognized loss. my point is, we've kind of gotten a fair distance on, you know, pricing in some pain i don't know if obviously it's the full way overall levels become somewhat interesting. we're back to like january 6th, last level, last seen in the s&p, first week of the year, but the december lows become really pretty important more like 3,800. it is the lower end of the rage we've been in for months in the first part of the calendar year, you don't want to breach the december lows it is an old trading rule of thumb. so that's i think the way to frame out what we're looking at here, going into next week the other piece of it, everything happening, in terms of bank runs, in terms of not making payroll, in terms of people taking haircuts on what they have in the bank, it's disinflationary if nothing else.

we'll have to see how that plays through. >> it will certainly have an impact on one's desire to take risks. >> yes >> we'll follow all of the implications throughout the weekend. we look forward to seeing you next week as well. wishing you a good weekend that does it all for "closing bell." thank you, scott the worst week for stocks of 2023 this is a score card on wall street that actually is just getting started with the action. welcome to "closing bell" overtime, coming up on today's show, we will be all over the failure of silicon valley bank, and what it means for your money, with a range of voices, including ycombinator president garry tan saying this could be an extinction level event for startups. next week, key inflation number