good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen, and we are watching another major market selloff today. u.s. stocks following european markets lower as credit suisse becomes the latest crisis for the banking sector. >> that stock falling more than 20% to a new all-time low, under $2 a share its biggest backer saudi national bank says they won't or can't provide further financial support leading to a big financial selloff in europe, and that's continuing here in the u.s. dow down about 720 points at the lows we're off those levels now but still down 1.5%. the nasdaq down two-thirds of 1% but the russel 2000 is the worst performer with regional banks under pressure again it's selling off by 2.5% >> for more now on the problem children market and the stars in the mark, let's go to christina

partsinevelos. >> reporter: the s&p turned negative at 3839, but we're still holding on to monday's lows, but we can't ignore this selloff triggered by fears of instability in the global financial system, and that, like kelly mentioned, you saw the drop in credit suisse stock. other big bank names taking a hit, goldman sachs, jpmorgan you can see down 5% and citi down even more, over 6% lower driving down interest rate expectations along with the fact that we got cooler than expected february price data so the two-year was now 3.89% we care about it a number because it carefully follows the fed fund rates and the stronger dollar and supply right now in oil and demand concerns actually weighing on the energy sector. the worst performing sector led by haliburton, almost 10% lower. here at the nasdaq though, have some odd, uncommon names moving

higher sirius xm on that's on some buy the dip mentality after hitting a search-year low on monday. netflix, zoom, zoom up about 2% and netflix over 2.5% higher, and that's just some of the gainers that we're seeing in today's selloff, especially here at the nasdaq. guys >> kristina, thanks very much. a lot of concerns over the states of global banking with credit suite lose support from its biggest backer sending european investors in the red. please fill us in. we're all trying to figure out since credit suisse was such a known problem for so long why did today did this suddenly become a huge concern? >> reporter: well, kelly, good afternoon, and thanks for having me it just goes to show how sensitive market participants are right now to just a little bit of bad news. as you say, credit suisse has been a known problem child within the european banking sector for not just months but for years. nevertheless, today we saw the stock in credit suisse drop 24%

to the lowest level on record. credit suisse dollars nominated, bonds hit record lows after saudi national bank ruled out more investment in the troubled lender credit suisse management tried to reassure the management, the ceo coming out saying we're a strong bank and overshoot all our regulatory requirement our base is strong but investors are yet to be convinced. as you can see, the european banking sector sold off right alongside credit suisse. obviously not to the extent that credit suisse sold off, but we saw substantial moves lower in several european banking stocks and several actually hit their tradedown limit so trading automatically halted earlier in the day. beyond the banks, oil and gas sold off very heavily and there were also steep losses on the flip side, the more resilient parts of the market today, the defensive sectors, so health care actually managed to end in positive territory we also saw some resilience in food and bev and telecom and fx based on the back of the turmoil

we saw the euro plunge as investors fled for safety and in position for tomorrow's central bank meeting the interesting thing to note there is the expectation had been for a 50-point basis right hike and now investors are dialing back the expectations, and the market pricing suggests a 25% basis point hike is more likely. >> before you go, i talked about the people over here that expected the situation to be resolved by swiss authorities, other major banking players who could come in and kind of come to the rescue of credit suisse, so it seems not to be so much about this institution itself per se but about any counterparty risk that, for instance, u.s. companies might have in terms of doing business. they have all pulled back considerably if they had those exposures, but perhaps we'll find out more. >> absolutely. it seems as though those banks around europe are now looking at their counterparty risk, their exposure to credit suisse, and as you said where do we go from

here this is speculation mounting that we could see the swiss government get involved, the snb because letting credit suisse obviously head into trouble from here would be a devastating thing to happen to switzerland and given its financial center for the world, they are likely to want to avoid that, and then, of course, there is the option that we could see credit suisse become a takeover target ubs, wisp likely seen as the acquirer of credit suisse, the ceo of ubs says our strategy is organic and we're focused on ourselves when asked about a potential takeover of the swiss lender >> that tells you. juliana, really appreciate it. thank you so much today. >> all right, as credit suisse joins silicon valley and signature on the list of troubled banks, the question is whether more will join them. joining us now to talk about the banking crisis and the ripple effect in the market, senior markets commentator mike santoli and cnbc.com banking reporter

hugh san here with us in the studio at root, what's fundamentally the problem with credit suisse. >> tyler, investors have woken to the increased risk, the billing of the banking system moving from the regime where there was a zero interest rate policy for a decade into a more normalized environment you have had three banks fail here in the u.s. in the last week now you have the market essentially sniffing out -- >> every bank. >> who could be next in the system, so there are some similarities if you look at silicon valley bank, we know that on thursday $42 billion in deposits fled the bank in a single day that's pretty dramatic now we've also learned that, you know, credit suisse in the fourth quarter alone they lost 110 billion swiss franckes so 37% of their entire deposit base evaporated in the fourth quarter. here were in march, some of those outflows have continued. >> this has been an unnotably

slow rolling debacle in credit suisse not like sbv where one day it seemed okay and the next day it wasn't. >> credit suisse has been a known problem player i would say that the -- that the tinder has been laid out and now with the -- with, you know, the crash of these three banks in the u.s., certainly the fear of contagion has spread, and it really is the market essentially saying, you know, who is going to be next and in europe, they are the weakest of sort of a bad bunch, right they have had risk management issues over the years. their revenues have collapsed and their costs are sticky so they are in a negative feedback loop at the moment and i've talked to sources and one of the common things they will say, you know, is when the name of the country is in the name of your bank, you're probably going to get bailed out at some point. >> sure. >> but that hasn't happened yet but there's concern of contagion from a collapse. >> even, mike, as we're showing

hsbc which itself came to the rescue of sbv's uk arm buying them for one pound, so this is not like you can paint everything with a broad brush here. >> no, not at all, and honestly, i don't think there's a really satisfying answer to why now, why today aside from that trigger being sort of pulled by the comments that, you know, the saudi bank would not add more to its holdings, and i think what it tells you is we're in an environment where you just try to pick out the slowest member of the heard because have you a fear that because rates are going up, because do you have lots of flows in motion in terms of deposits leaving, especially low-yielding accounts, you know, you're getting penalized in a sense for the more sophisticated your customer base is and the more concentrated it is. the more vulnerable it is. that was the case with sbv and the case with first republic to a certain degree and would theoretically be the case with credit suisse where why do we stay if we can just go that being said, we're trading

the shadows and sort of flinching because maybe there's something there. there's not an aggregate capital deficiency out there there's really not some sort of trove of toxic assets that we've never before been witnessed to there is a was in '07, '08 and '09. what we have here is government bond prices went down a lot last year we knew that, and that's just sort of sitting on the books out there, so in that sense maybe there's a slight comfort in the fact that we're not really waiting to unwind something that is a mystery we're just sort of figuring out, you know, whether these folks can withstand the deposit outflow. >> hugh, how do you retook the that >> the news that sparked the selloff in credit suisse was saudis saying no mas, we're in for 10%, can't go any further. that's known that's the regulatory hurdle they have. they have never could have gone past 10% understanding that tells you all that you need to know about this it's about fear. it's about lack of confidence in the banking system, you know, in

that part of the world and concerns that investors have with the risk in the banking world. >> that'sing a trn way to put it we've used the word contagion a good bit here. it seems like there may not be a so-called classic credit contagion here but there is a contagion of suspicion and fear. >> that's how flighty is your deposit base, and michael just pointed out the wealth management deposit base of credit suisse, they haven't stuck around they voted with their feet and they have moved. >> interesting point that michael made you said a moment ago it's been the more sophisticated customers who have been moving the fastest. maybe that's always the care, but it's an interesting point. >> yeah. >> go ahead and finish the thought. >> as a matter of fact, a lot of the analysts have said, look, we like the banks that have a very fragmented overwhelmingly retail deposit base, and a lot of these southern regionals and things like that. it's really just because of the money just doesn't move en masse

very efficiently. >> right. >> and there's stickiness of having your bank account where you get your payroll direct deposited. >> thank you both very much. appreciate it. today's selloff putting the dow 11% below its recent highs and down more than 4% year to date it also marks the one-year anniversary of the fed's first rate hike this cycle, just the one-year anniversary, and our next guest says it's still too see the effects across the economy. our next guest has gotten it right saying buckle up for a long recession saying stocks won't bottom until pmis do and today he says we have all three ingredients in place for a hard landing. mike, good to see you. welcome. >> hi, kelly and tyler. >> the only thing i can fault you for is being early because we all thought by now the labor market and jobs market would be cracking what's really interesting is how we're starting to see credit markets seize up even though that's not happening so what's your take? >> i mean, we've seen -- as you mentioned, we have -- you know, we've got a lot of problems that

are starting to pop up we've got knowns and unknowns and i think there's a lot more and those three ingredients that you -- that you mentioned, and i'll reiterate which is the fed raisinging interest rates, commercial banks tightening lending standards and an inflation problem, we've had these three issues for about a year now it takes time for that to flow all the way through into earnings in the labor market, but obviously the early signs that it's having an impact, whether it's through the markets last year and tech stocks getting hit, housing fundamentals and the economy getting hit and now it's flowing into banks, you know, so it's the rate sensitivity flowing from the earliest parts of the economy and financial markets that are susceptible to, it and the end game is ultimately the employment backdrop, and that's for us when a recession starts and looking at the forward looking indicators of employment, that seems to be something that begins in the middle of this year and becomes the dominant risk for equity

markets. >> right, and, you know, i'm sure you saw this, but bank of america, they put out a note last night saying we're now in late cycle in the downturn phase. toni morrison slockett has gone from thinking we'll have no landing to think we'll have a hard landing the way i see it a lot of strategists are kind of catching up with your view and with the warnings you've been putting out there for quite some time. >> yeah. >> tactically for equity investors, what do they do we heard earlier last hour those who believe a recession is coming and are still positioned for the rebound already, you know, the asset classes and sectors that are usually outperforming coming out of that event, is that something that you think investors can be trying to do right now >> well, you know, it's our job on the sell side, especially in the macro world, to talk about big picture stories that are coming up and so the irony and it's something i often tell clients, i'm into the big

believer that the markets are very forward-look, and i think that's been on full display over the last 12 months and increasingly over the last 12 days if not 12 hours, and so if -- if you're betting on a recession that's going to happen in six months and position for that, you know, six months too early, yeah, you're going to be wrong and historically, bear markets really start that end up in a recession when unemployment claims start to rise, and, you know, ironically it's also a bit of a problem today because employment is a bit too strong, so, you know, i think we're looking at -- you know, we have a framework. we've tried to be remarkably consistent with our views despite the market volatility which, again, is commonplace for bear markets, and the -- the catchup that is being made now by other analysts i think is occurring as we see the lagged effects of this tight anything cycle play out, and there's a lot more to come so our recommendation to investors at the start of the year, though we have a bearish

outlook for year end when employment breaks is that you want to remain actually somewhat balanced and in really high quality conscience and because we believe the market is going to be bouncing back and forth between soft landing hopes and recession fears, and like you just said, kelly, in the last six weeks we've gone from you've yeah, the s&p beta index was almost at an all-time high to today, you know in, a panic moeshlgsd and i think it's going to be bouncing back and forth like this for the next several months until we see unemployment start to more materially -- >> michael, not too many people who come on our air who do what you do like to toss around the phrases bear market and recession. they just don't, okay? >> yeah. >> and you've been real clear about that, but that doesn't mean necessarily that there is a nothing you can do and no place prudently to put your money, and people have to have some place prudently to put their money

even during recessions or bear markets. where are they now -- where are the prudent places what are they? >> at the beginning of the year our high conviction view was to own treasuries over stocks and this past week's events is the greatest advertisement for the u.s. government for americans that have been kind of lazy to move their low interest-yielding deposits into higher-yielding securities, cds and money markets, so i still think treasuries are more attractive than equities. within, you know, the broader markets and for investors, our clients that have to be fully invested, again, it's really about looking at company fundamentals and figure out which names you can underwrite in a more risky backdrop we're looking for successful companies, companies are less cyclicality and who are outperforming their peers so companies like service corp,

sci, lockheed martin, tractor supply are three names among many names that screen well under those criteria the flip side, what do investors want to be avoiding? well, you know, in january we saw a huge rally in low-quality stocks that was, you know -- coincidentally it occurred as the whole no landing thesis came about. that i think is well behind us, and so companies you want to be avoiding are companies with questionable fundamentals. extreme valuations, extreme leverage and so some of the names that come up on our screen are nvidia, caesars entertainment and pentair, pnr. >> we're kind of out of time, but a quick thought on nvidia which so many people do like because of the tie to artificial intelligence got to be quick, michael

>> the valuation i think is the biggest problem. >> okay. >> great secular story lastly, listen, that is business cycle story. i was the most bullish strategist in 2021 and we talked about it then when things were good we just don't have those conditions now we will again in the future and hopefully i'm looking forward to that sometime soon. >> michael, thank you. the long ideas were service corp, lockheed martin and tractor supply, three companies that seemingly have absolutely nothing in common except the quality that you seek. michael, thank you again >> all right thank you. markets selling off today, as you probably know investors looking for safety money moving into defensive sectors and utilities the best-performing group in the s&p 500. gains of more than 2% in that group. consumer staples such as pepsi, procter & gamble also higher not huge gains but, you know, you take it on a down day. gold also jumping getting above 1900 for the first time in six weeks and check out shares of

valley national bank that stock down a few pennies in the big selloff. more after the break ♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first.

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welcome back to "power lunch. stocks sliding today as the pressure in the banking sector stretches across the pond. regional banks in the u.s. have been hit particularly hard in the wake of sbv's collapse with the s&p regional bank etf down nearly 12% so far this week. our next guest says there's a lot of uncertainty ahead for the regional names, but he's

confident in a rebound down the line for more let's bring in our friend, frequent contributor valley bank ceo ira robbins. good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> how are you doing how hats week been >> great you know, for us here at vale, you know, it's been an amazing opportunity for us you know, we've opened up a lot of accounts. our teams have been working all week 24/7 once the failure of sbv and signature was announced. personally though what troubles me a little sbit valley's benefit is come at expense of the regional banking industry. tyler, if you recall back in 2008 and 2009 we created a concept of too big to fail and those only been proliferated since then my fear is on the back end of this crisis that we create something too small too succeed which would be a travesty for the american economy >> go ahead. can i ask, i actually just saw your bank's name couple on the screen because now we're getting endless screens who have has

what level uninsured deposits and this level and that. yours screens very high for growth in commercial real estate loans outstanding, obviously a big pressure point for investors right now. what can you tell us about the quality of the loans that you've extended in commercial real estate, how many are in office space that might be vacant and when would you say about those concerned about the asset quality for the next couple of years? >> i would say, look, everybody organization is different. valley has been around for 95 years and we've never had a losing quarter, ever, in 95 years. you know, credit quality and the risk management is something we don't take for granted in our organization i mean, think about office specifically we have 260million office loan in manhattan that's it on a balance sheet of $57 bill crop, $58 billion so we do a good job misk managing our overall portfolio. a lot of what you see is as a result of the m & a we've done over the last couple of years. >> a lot of people are looking

at the various banks' loan books. my question is twofold one, are you growing your loan book this year considerably, and what about the credit standards you're applying to applicants or to existing customers? are you tightening them? >> that's a great questions and i know many of our peers, you know, have heard commentary surrounding tightening credit spreads, widening credit spreads when it comes to debt service ratios and some of the other ratios we look at. we make a little by the but reality many of our clients self-select. when is the right time to be in and out and original nation activity for us has decline this year versus last year and it's largely a function of our clines of what they are seeing in the space and deciding to keep their cash on the shrines. >> so, i.r.a., are you making any changes to your business model after the events of the past five days. >> i think business models in banking will change dramatically, you know that said as we think about our

overall bank we've always run a very diverse balance sheet we bank well over hundreds of businesses and never had any vertical and that's the success that we've had over 95 years, why we've been so successful and many within the banking industry that really operated in that manner and it's important for us as an industry to make sure that we build that confidence and trust back up. >> did you buy long-dated treasuries and mortgage-backed securities over the past couple of years before the rate hikes >> we had a little bit our overall investment portfolio is only 9% of the total assets that we, have so it's very, very small compared to what the other peers are. we eve stressed what the oci is and the asf portfolio and the htm portfolio, and it's minor. i mean, that's prudent risk management kell, what i see, although it's a little bit different than what it was in 2008 and 2009 from a credit perspective, but it's nothing more than a crisis of confidence, a crisis of trust, right, and trust is a function of character.

>> right. >> and in 2009 there was a lack of confidence when it comes to credit and today there's a lack of competence when it comes to interest rate rate and liquidity risk management and it's incumbent upon the banks to understand that's not true for the overall industry overall we're wonderful managers and that's something that the industry needs to make sure we're communicating to all of our clients. >> senator warren is talking about exanding stress tests to banks. she might have said 50 billion and regulators thinking 100 billion. remind me again what your size is when asked this morning about whether banks could be trusted to do their own stress testing, she sort of laughed and said i was a professor, i wouldn't trust my students to do their own testing, to administer their own tests. what's your response that? >> i think we do a very good job overall managing the risk within our overall industry look, it can always be improved. regular slayings a good thing within our industry, but we have to understand the unintended consequences of what regulation is at some point, and it's a great conversation to have, and i'm looking forward to that

conversation. >> thank you, and thanks for being available to us as you are so frequently. we appreciate it ira robbins. >> thank you. >> ahead on the show, the technical take on the markets. we'll break out the chart. look at the dow, almost halved our declines, only down 356 and the nasdaq down a third of a percent right now. let's see if that's lessened the selling pressure in oil which is down 10% this week cracked below 66 earlier this week on wti. we're back after this. somewhere out there is that one-in-a-million. someone who thinks with their hands. who can shape raw materials into something meaningful. and who wants to serve in their own way. if you're out there. if you're looking for more. we're looking too. we're calling on a new generation of builders for navy's next-gen submarines.

welcome back to "power lunch. bank stocks have been the main character of the market story this week, but our next guest says it's time to move past the financials and move broad. is that a good or bad thing? let's bring in carter wirth of charter founding where do you want to stop, copper, gold, you name it? >> good grief. you think about the bank stocks, and obviously it's important because we're having a bit of a crisis of sorts, and liquidity and leverage and borrowed money and mistaking one side of the ledger with the other is always a problem, but the bank stocks have been chronic underperformers, if you look at any long-term relative charts

the bkx index itself is at its '09 lows or let's consider valley national who we just heard from, right, is $9.60. it was $9.60 25 years ago. you're talking about a stock adjusted for inflation that's lost 70%, 80% of its value overtime it's not been great investments. morgan stanley, the same one on the screen, the same price as it was in 2000. >> no. >> adjusted for inflation it's down 45% not great investments. >> wow, and citi group obviously 44 means it was 450 back in the pre-split days, so then where do people go? >> i mean, that's -- the question, of course, is this the kind of environment that attracts capital to the equity market, because in order for stocks to go up and then a group of stocks, the mark go up, you need money coming in you need more buyers than sellers, this is elemental and this kind of disruption and location, this is not what makes

people want to embrace, to engage and to play the game. it's the opposite. makes people want to pull back, take measures and de-risk and here we have essentially the market which is back to unchanged on the year so it's now unchanged over three months but it's also over six months. it's unchanged over 12 months and unchanged over 24 months the equity complex as measured by the russell 3000 and s&p 500 is basically two years plus with no gains is it going to really take off from here? absolutely not i'm in the camp that it's sideways the down, captures 59% of the odds. >> right that's exactly what you've been worrying about. >> when you just pointed out comes as a surprise to me because, golly, it feels worse than that. >> doesn't it? >> yeah. >> well, at the individual stock level obviously there's catastrophes going on, and it's -- it's -- it's the interplay between, you know, energy at one point is very strong offsetting losses in big tech, and now apple and

microsoft are holding up quite well day-to-day and hour-to-hour relative to the markets, so it's ever thus, but the market is essentially unch and that's a tough thing to deal with it's even better to have a loser when we're wrong get out or a winner, ride it and take some gains. when it's churning and churning. >> unch on "power lunch. let's say i own very quickly, let's say i own some of these bank stocks. you call them a pair of twos, a pair of deuces what do you do with them, fold >> obviously i would go higher up in the quality scale. this is where certainly leaders will ultimately prevail, and some of the big names on the screen now, but jpmorgan comes to mind and morgan stanley what i was hoping to convey is that to think and who do, i have to look it up, morgan stanley is unchanged since 2000 that's 22 years which is to say it's down 45% adjusted for inflation. those are shocking numbers that you can't even get your mind

around. >> yeah, and that's one of those pernicious things where you think i didn't lose money ton. >> yeah, you did. >> carter, thanks very much. carter worth with stocks way off the lots as i mentioned let's get to contessa brewer for the cnbc news update. >> good afternoon to you russia's foreign minister says the u.s. significant nothing airspace restrictions near its black seacoast that russia established when it invaded ukraine. washington contends its air force reaper drone was flying through international airspace when russian fighter jets collided with it now a few minutes ago, defense secretary austin said he spoke with his russian counterpart and insisted the u.s. is going to fly wherever international law allows t in the uk where the ceremonial delivery of the government's budget to parliament actually merits aerial television coverage treasury chief jeremy hunt is predicting the country will got in into a technical recession this career and promising the government will take whatever steps are necessary for economic stability. and in paris, the garbage is

piling up on the city sidewalks. trash collectors are in the ninth day of a strike protesting the government's plans to raise the country's retirement age to 64 in an all-important man on the street interview, one tourist from spain is quoted as saying it's disgusting. >> tyler. >> oui, thank you, contessa. ahead on "power lunch" amid this growing stock volatility in both -- volatility in both stocks and bonds, where is the best place for you, and as we head to break, check out some. names bucking the trend lower today, specifically t-mobile ryan many ynds wreolill join jim cramer at 6:00 p.m. eastern on "mad money." we are back in two ♪ old school wisdom, with a passion for what's possible.

that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪

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what the heck is that? those are the bad guys. are they friendly? the 10g network, only from xfinity. one giant leap for mankind. welcome back everyone to "power lunch." markets bouncing back just a bit at this hour reports that switzerland is now holding some talks on how to stabilize credit suisse. meantime, rick santelli live at

the cbo with more on today's tumultuous action. rick >> reporter: yeah. there's a lot of action. as a matter of fact, a lot of people are calling for cleanup on aisle 12. all i know is that if you consider what's going on with ten-year note yields going on right now, they are hovering near the lowest yield close since the last big jobs report on february 3rd. i find that fascinating. and as you look at ten-year over vix over two weeks, you can see how the inverses correlate almost precisely and if you want them to be directly correlated let's look at the vix well under 30 look at the fed fund futures there's a lot of action going on here let's talk to our buddy pat. >> hey, rick. >> pat, here's what i want to know at the end of the day we have the ecb tomorrow everybody is talking about rate decisions. nobody knows the answer there, but you know something about volatility that you want to share. >> so biggest things that we're seeing right now as you were pointing out, the vix has been skyrocketing with this move.

we're seeing a vix right around 27.5 when we first started talking. it's been moving around, going up and down a lot right now as the market is going up and down but the interesting thing that we're seeing is when you start looking at volatility further out in time, you start looking at a june vix. the june vix is two points lower. right now it's about 25.5. ordinarily that would be about another point and a half lower around 24 relative to where the vix is trading >> where is it >> that means people are worried. people are worried that this is going to be long and drawn out and it's going to be going for a little while longer than what's going on right now a lot of times when we see the panics people come for short-dated options and want cheap protection and get some insurance to protect themselves. >> so watch the spread between the current vix and the june vix, the wider it gets to the discount the more long term this may be. >> right now -- >> always good advice, but in the end we want to know what the ecb is going tomorrow. my call is zero. kelly, back for you. >> rick, we were just talking about the vix. thank you. with all the volatility lately,

more investors are contempt to take the safe -- the t-bill -- we cannot say t-bill and chill anymore. that cannot be the right approach maybe it can be. let's ask alex morris, chief investment officer at s & m investment thanks so much for joining us here. >> thanks for having me. >> okay. let's rewind three, four weeks everyone thought why worry about the stock market take that 5% yield and, you know, with vicks month and even the two-year ultimately. oh, my how things have changed i don't know now that we've seen the two-year rocketing 40 basis points one day and the next and then the next, what's the implication for investors? >> investors need a safe haven to go and we see the skyrocket in price and the drop in yield because they are looking for a safe place to be, and that place is not a bad place to be it's a treasury market it's a great advertisement for what the government has been up to, their ability to backstop the economy broadly speaking starting with regional banks but you're still getting a positive yield. it's a material number

if we went backwards two years those numbers were zero. >> but it's also ironic because people are piling into treasury bills they undermined the banking system everyone who is moving deposits right now, this is all part of the problem. >> that's true but as yields go down some banks are helped because now the long-term or mid-term dated liabilities are worth more so in its own odd way it will balance itself out, but if you did a bad job your as tote liability base, these moves won't much help but they help some for folks around the margin. >> there we have a look at two-year notes, ten-year notes and others with nice yields on them we looked at shorter bills, one-year, six months and three-month t-bills. they look okay right now they are not as high as they were a couple of days ago, but let me spin forward the clock two or three months to the point at which we may in a debt ceiling crisis what is my risk there from that if there's a -- a stall or a breakdown? >> well, we've been close to that before, and we've always

blinked. i think we need to the government has a long-term requirement to continue to pay its debt and a reputational damage would happen if it didn't, so i think we all have to kind of bet that some work arrangement is made and made in relatively short order without having to talk about wacky things like a drill cron dollar platinum coin or the brinksmanship that we were worried about a few weeks ago. >> most people if they are in anything like a t-bill, and everyone is going to treasury direct, and they are hoping that they are not going to be in the crosshairs of any potential delay on those payments, make the case for why i should be in some kind of t-bill etf right now. unless i have the biggest risk appetite of all time, they must be a roller coaster. normally an etf would be a more efficient product but right now, i would think maybe i need to sit in the t-bill and not worry about it. >> sure. there's volatility in rates without doubt and i encourage anyone who wants to look at a t-bill or treasury direct to try it and open up your brokerage account.

>> the site was down in the middle of all of this. >> exactly it's ultimately hard to buy treasury notes people forget bonds are still cleared over the counter and traded in fractions. i can't tell you how many people didn't like fractions in school and no one things in 1/64 anymore and it's easier to buy in etfs. and that means we stay on the >> unwhat does that mean >> stay most liquid. when you look around 10:00 a.m. when you took at all of the two-years that you could buy, anything with a two-year maturity beyond the run had a one tick, two-tick spread whereas all the others had 5, 10, 20 and although you had something that looked like it would mature in two years, when you tried to sell it the price would be found to be quite different. >> interesting. >> alex, thanks very much. >> thank you. >> coming up next, the growing concerns about the stability of the financial system dampening energy demand. we'll dive into that one next. look at west texas crude up a

little bit from where it was earlier, 68.35, down 4% and below 70

a big drop in oil prices today. lowest level since 2021 before the russian invasion of ukraine, if you can believe it. pippa stevens joins us now with more. >> reporter: yeah, fell to the lost since december 2021, but we've seen a big bounce off the worst levels of the day. it was at 65.65 earlier, so more than $2 above the low that we had earlier today. of course, this is from the fallout in the banks as well as global growth concerns for wti specifically it was stuck between the range between 70 and 80 and once it fell below 70, that does fuel technical selling which then increases the volatility we are seeing now a big drop in energy stocks on the heels of oil's decline. it is the worst performing group today. the oih, services names like haliburton and sib are among biggest losers and that's pause they actually outperformed the xle and xlp in the last six months so this could be a case of easing up on some of the positions that have been relative outperformers i wanted to pick out one thing from that chart, it showed the

relative strength index on the xle which, of course, is tracking the energy sector, and it shows that it has dropped below 0 and it's now at over sold levels, and you can see in the past when it's bumped up against that level, it has then rallied. so could be time to nibble, but with all the volatility in the market, don't necessarily want to call a bottom. >> and if we do and it goes up, there's problems with that, too, so kind of track it. thanks still to come, our next guest says today's selloff would be a case of dirina sinscmiteelling and may be a good moment to put some capital to work we'll discuss next so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

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welcome back, everybody, pretty big rebound in stocks today. the dow was down at the lows, currently down more than 300 points the financial sector, obviously, bearing the brunt of this, along with energy. shares of credit suisse closing down 20% let's bring in peter anderson for some gravity and perspective here, and victoria green, chief investment officer with g squared private wealth wonderful to have you both along. share thoughts on this environment. victoria, i'll start with you. we're seeing people in some ways kind of terrified about what's going on with the two-year yield and what that says about what's coming next. what's your take >> i think the word is "panic," because i think we hit a little bit of oversold. i talked about indiscriminate selling. you have good companies going down with bad and one of the best examples of that was charles schwab why was everybody selling charles schwab

they have like a hundred billion in liquidity on hand before they even have to sell any of these held to maturity people are not thinking rationally they're thinking emotionally that's a very dangerous time to be an investor, because you aren't seeing rational swings. you're seeing panic moves up and down >> and peter, you know, there's kind of this urge right now, i think, to say, "okay, well, the consumer balance sheet is way different than '06 and you know, this is not going to rerun exactly like the credit crisis, so therefore, maybe the panic is a buying opportunity or maybe, you know, we know a downturn's coming but you can start to kind of pick up stocks on the cheap and look past that." what do you think? >> well, i think the hardest thing has been this past year, for investors to take their time and realize that, you know, when the fed started raising rates a year ago this month, in this day and age of instant gratification and social networking data, et cetera, the fed still operates in the stone age.

it takes about a year for any of these rate hikes to actually play through the economy, so that's why we are all so anxious, looking at every single data point that comes out, but i think the sv bank is really the first hard data point that, iran nuclear deal ironically, the rate hikes are working, so to speak, because they have caused such havoc, and i think the fed in its wisdom is realizing they have to slow down because now we're actually seeing some damage, although they might say, you know, positive impact from the rate hike. so, you put that all together. i am optimistic. i think the fed would probably have stopped raising anyway in this very close period the sv just pushes them over the fence earlier, but i do think tech stocks, for instance, have enjoyed a very strong rebound. i have had a very good year so far to date, kind of dancing

between the rain drops of all this stuff, but i do remain optimistic, even in the face of what we are experiencing right now. >> peter, is what happened at svb -- you just said it -- evidence that the fed's rate hiking posture is having -- is doing what it was intended to do it would be very easy to argue, however, that the failure at svb was because the management didn't do what the management should have been doing, and that is diversifying their deposit base and managing their interest rate risk better, and they had a mismatch of assets, and the fed may have been, you know, lit the candle, but these guys were the ones who let the fire go >> oh, absolutely, tyler, and i guess it's a complicated situation. it's never one main driver, but i think you hit the nail on the head the fact that the fed did push the envelope with rates, rate hikes, i think, did cause that

to come into the forefront where probably it would not have come to surface had the fed not been so aggressive. so, it's very convoluted in terms of who did what, but i do think that we shouldn't panic about this, because it's nowhere near what we went through in 2008, and i do see clear sailing ahead. >> goldman, schwab, american express, victoria, are these are a trade or for the long run? >> for the long run. american express is a phenomenal company, and if you look at how they've managed to increase their savings deposits, they're a reason the bank is leaving the bank deposits. i think the very strong companies, yes, i know goldman is going through a little transformation about what they want to do with marcus and the retail division there. i do have faith goldman will find their way they're quality companies, and if you look the a their diversified balance sheets, how they're making money, where their revenues come from, they're going to weather any challenges to this financial sector much different than, say,

a traditional stand-alone bank, but they're not just trades for me they're good, strong companies i wouldn't buy them if i didn't believe in them. >> on that note -- >> it's like a rallying cry. >> peter, victoria green, thank you very much. we had a real diversity of opinion this hour. >> yes, we did i don't know what that tells us. >> yeah, we had bear market going to continue, and we had -- end on a more hopeful note and on that, we leave you. thanks for watching "power lunch. >> closing bell starts right now. >> i'm scott wapner, live at post nine, new york stock exchange major selloff in stocks. the banks, the pressure point on both sides of the atlantic today. all of it only adding to fears about what it means for the economy, the markets, and most especially your money. here's your scorecard. 60 minutes to go in regulation it's been a big slide today. s&p going negative on the year the real pain point today, though, th