product experience the companies that are able to do that perhaps accelerate out of this period that we're in of course, investors want to think about what comes next. >> we ended up dodging somewhat of a bullet here with major averages ending the day well off their lows the nasdaq turning positive, yields lower today, ecb in focus tomorrow fedex after the bell tomorrow. that does it for "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. >> twitchy and twisted every headline from regulators here and around the world. banks, airlines and industrials lower again today. steve iceman will join us tonight. he'll tell us why you don't want to be a hero in this market. plus, crude collapsing, wti falling over 4% today, closing below 70 bucks a barrel for first time since december 2021 and later, flight to faang regional banks plunged, the titans at tech say now is the time to put the money in the

first bank of cupertino. we start off with the great rate route. yields on two-year treasuries plunging as much as 50 basis points today and hitting their lowest level since mid-september. they close well off the lows a far cry from the 5% plus they were a week ago. the move coming after yesterday's regional bank rebound returned -- turned back na into a regional bank route shares of credit suisse falling to an all-time low, even as swiss regulators said they would step in to save the bank if needed but it wasn't pain everywhere. equity markets closed well off the lows of the day with the nasdaq in the green. dow erasing a 725-point drop to close down less than a percent what should they listen to, the bond market or the stock market?

today in particular, when we woke up this morning, saw the headlines, futures down sharply it didn't feel very good it was surprising how the day ended. >> it was the ides of march for sure this morning. you look at the bond yields and the vix and the three-day move on the vix, maybe moving into a new area, we're going to get into where maybe cap tech stocks are outperforming. if investors think there is another fed put in the works here because we're bailing out what seems like -- this is not really the story, but the headlines could say you're bailing out silicon valley tech bros, that's just not the case and it is probably not the case there. we're talking more broadly about depositors but in a world where bank costs are going higher, bank lending is tightening, you have dynamics that i don't think we had forecasted into the market, lower rates are great for equities and for higher duration stocks i think that's just in the short run. and, to me, i think youhave to be really careful about assuming that lower rates are great for you, even if we're debating what is going on the fed funds curve.

>> you don't see these sorts of moves in rates, guy, without there something being wrong, i would think, in the market i'm in your head when i set you up with that >> yeah. yeah you typically -- there is a lot of room up there, you have space to sort of move around >> a little echo. >> the cme group has an instrument called the tbl and that measures bond volatility. and we're at levels last seen in march of 2020, and i think we all recall what was happening there. and, you know, last night i was complimenting the fed being steadfast in their want to combat inflation and i agree with them. but the thing that i'll push back on, you know i'm not a fan, is so much for stable markets because when you see bond moves like this, it is unprecedented it is precedented, because we have seen it before. but it should not trade the way it is trading and as i said a number of times, it just sort of is the precursor to equity volatility i think that's probably why steve iceman will make some comments he makes.

>> also have to remember, there are so many things going on right now in bonds, the fed opening up that window to pay par for bonds. so the market has been caving, financials have been caving. so i don't know which is right they're all correlated to a certain extent we have to wait to see how it plays out before you make up your mind, right >> in terms of what is going on in europe and how it affects or doesn't affect banking here, we have to remember yesterday we saw a bounceback in a lot of the regional banks what we're seeing today say giveback of that, which people called a flimsy rally to begin with >> that was hardly a bounceback yesterday. >> not you the rally. >> it was interesting. as steve said, there is a confluence of things that caused the bonds to rally the credit suisse situation, flight to quality, bonds rally and you also have the depositors leaving banks and maybe just buying treasuries directly there is that. there is the fed going to stop

raising. there is that. and then is there a recession? so all of those, together, caused quite a big rally the last couple of days. some of them will subside. i think. but this kind of volatility is just crazy >> how about hedges that people have had in bonds against their equity portfolios? so if you have hedges on with bonds or a certain amount allocated to bonds, certain amount allocated to equities, that equity number goes down, and you have to put it some place and now you're trying to be safer with your money then you're buying more bonds, so the whole thing becomes a vicious spiral until somebody figures out what they're going to do. >> in terms of what we're witnessing with the european banks and the meltdown there, though, that seemed to reach a new level in today's session so we all have been here, talking about past financial crises, unfortunately. but, i mean, is there anything that reminds you of '08.

you hear credit suisse is in trouble and you think deutsche bank and you start remembering those times. there is a muscle memory to that. >> if you look at credit suisse, they had issues trying to raise capital here this has been a slow bleed on credit suisse for months and months anytime there is pressure in the european banking sector, look at deutsche bank. there is a lot of concern about structured products and the size of the balance sheet and where the exposure really is i think some banks were thrown out with the bath water. i think am long ubs. i think ubs, an asset manager these days, has derisked their business, gives back 13% of capital to shareholders every year there is no question the european banking story is different than the banking story here and if you think about most of those banks, they are quasi sovereign banks. in some sense one of the things we're all debating here is whether deposit and deposit guarantees are part of what the u.s. banking system should be. there is also no question that at some point if people start to worry about their banking

system, we'll see a lot more assets in our money center banks. >> it is interesting why the swiss government waited. why wait why wait what was that discussion about, having seen, you know, what happens here when you wait, that if you are going to end up doing anything, you're better off doing it earlier rather than later. and so i was sort of surprised they just let it kind of -- >> ride for a while? >> yes >> this is a train wreck in slow motion this is not something that snuck up on anybody. this should have been handled way before -- i get what happened with transpire today, this should have been handled, back stopped a long time ago, if that's where they're going to go ultimately anyway. >> there is a certain element at this moment in time when things are sort of -- things are movin along very quickly there is a lot we still don't know we don't know what we don't know, guy. that's very uncomfortable position, particularly when you're talking about assets on bank balance sheets.

things that had gone undetected here in the united states by regulators, by credit rating agencies, by wall street analysts, by the bank itself, by depositors, the list goes on and on so, this whole notion of we don't know what we don't know, that's frightening. >> i think we as a society, i mean, we as citizens, we want to try to get bad news in the rear view mirror as quickly as we can. i think we're all -- i know i'm guilty of it, right? you can go back to look at blackstone and say, wait a second, maybe blackstone was sort of the precursor of some of the things we're seeing now. i'm not saying blackstone is in trouble, it is not my point. but you see things like that and connect the dots in terms of the swiss national bank, let's call it what they are. they're a bank as much as i'm a bank they're one of the biggest hedge funds in the world they have $139 billion with a b dollars worth of u.s. equities on their balance sheet

i'm not sure what their mandate is, but good luck with that. the whole world has been financialized to some extent you're 100% right. and to think that, again, credit suisse is going to be the last, no, it is not. you throw deutsche bank on that list and it will cascade from there. >> for more on these historic rate swings, let's bring in the man who is watching every single move rick santelli live from the cme. we're talking about the tremendous volatility across the curve today. it was just extraordinary. >> it really was whether you -- there is a variety of ways to monitor the volatility in treasuries guy brought out one. we could look at the moves index. that's the highest close since 2009 if you look at the spreads, you look at every facet of what's going on with regard to treasuries, and, yes, it is in hyperdrive i think the most interesting aspect is that we need to mention this, it is not only us. whether you look at boons,

r-10s, gilts, this type of move is going to happen in a very highly correlated fashion for a while, and that's something to deal with, both from a volatility and from a hedging standpoint i also think this fed fund futures game, it really is kind of humor ouous to me, okay. if you put fed funds on top of a two-year note on prices, they're on top of each other if you put it on top of the vix, they're on top of each other if you put it on top of ten-year note yields, they're inverse when things get crazy, fed funds future traders aren't really telling you what is the fed is going to do, they're telling you what short rates are doing and that's all i'm not saying short rates don't give you every bit as good of a vision into fed thoughts, it is just not as easy to calculate. and the other big issue is, and i know that several on your panel there are talking about maybe this is over, banks are

different, all i know is that i had a drexel bankruptcy lawyer tell me in 1990 that it was the most solvent bankrupt company he had ever seen, and the moral of that story is it is all about liquidity. whether it is signature bank, whether it is svb bank, so it is very difficult sometimes to know if this is going to be contagious because we just don't really know if regulators have done their job thoroughly, and when we're now getting full credit to every damaged mortgage-backed security in and the fed standing up for it, that creates a whole other chapter down the road that the europeans are going to have to deal with because they did the same thing to the central banks of the south. >> it will be interesting to see what the ecb decides to do tomorrow, rick, ahead of the fed. in terms, though, in terms of what we have seen today, so, you're saying that the fed funds futures, just throw out the

garbage, it is bunk. the notion that the terminal rate has come down by 1% plus in aof days, that's meaningless to you it provides a window into market psychology, no >> well, you know what, it is an easy way to look at a lot of different markets in one easy kind of fashion and boil it down into percentages and everybody likes it i think simple can be good when it gets volatile, it is going to have just the same mean reversion tendencies as one-year bill or three-month bill or two-year note for the most part. i think that's all i'm referring to, there is no magic there. hanging your hat on what fed fund futures syeay yesterday or today. >> yeah. rick, thank you. rick santelli. more on the potential fallout with the founder and ceo of xonte data.

are we witnessing a banking crisis unfold here in the united states or in europe? >> so, it started with one bank and then two banks and now we have three i think it is very important to think about what type of bank it is we're looking at. we had regional banks in the u.s., that's where we had the two u.s. examples. the news today is that around one of the biggest global investment banks, so in a total different category of banking institution here, right? in order to contain this, we need to have it not spread, right? so we need to watch extremely carefully whether this is something that is contaminating all the big investment banks, right? so we're watching it on the screen, right, big french banks down 10%, 12% today at one point. that's not what you want to see. if you look at what is going on in credit, it was a little less dramatic we had just on the cusp of this, looking into the more systemic crisis, right?

that's why people are getting memories from 2008 today and that's what is making it so dramatic >> we're seeing the individual banks skyrocketing, particularly for credit suisse. but in terms of saying things like, well, we have to make sure it doesn't spread, i mean, that's fine, but we don't really know what it is that will spread and so therefore what is the mechanism by which it will spread there is a lot we don't know yet, jens, for us to digest. it is easy to shoot now and ask questions later, which is what we're seeing unfold on the markets or are there things you're looking at in particular to tip you off, if this is some sort of systemic crisis we're facing in europe and could that then translate or come to our shores >> yes, so, i think one indicator that we have learned to look at is what is essentially the price of dollar funding for global players, right? if there is a shortage of dollars in the market, like we had in 2008, the price of dollar

funding goes up dramatically, and that scares a lot of people, right, because a lot of people have dollar assets that they need to fund, if they can't fund them, they're in serious trouble. we started to see some movement today. it is not as much as it was in the covid shock, certainly not as much as it was in 2008. that's what is really scaring people that's why the euro traded down almost 2% today. that's the first signal that is global systemic tension. we need to watch those indicators incredibly carefully. we have that on the other hand, a look at the big european banks, right, and it moved, but it was not super dramatic we're just at the cusp we need to be very pragmatic the ecb has a difficult decision tomorrow do they do 50 basis points and ignore the financial stability concerns or do they say, okay, we actually have to prioritize the financial stability concerns ahead of the inflation so very, very difficult situation. it is the same for the fed we are at a point in time where

we have inflation above target it is not so easy to focus on the banks as it was in the other sectors where we had no inflation problem to speak of. >> jens, the crisis of confidence, back to europe, in 2011, 2012, the european sovereign debt crisis was something that was really about a crisis of confidence, and if we think about the velocity of the fed move, bund rates were minus 70 bips, they went up to 275. if we actually are seeing some type of volatility that we're seeing and the dollar funding stress you're talking about, that dollar rally, which was a wrecking ball, all the way to october of last year, may get going again and it has not been my base view, but i have to say, i'm very concerned by the move in the dollar in the last couple of days and for risk assets, it is an awful backdrop. >> i think we have an incredible tension between the economic data that has looked very, very

strong, up until very recently, right? and the fed is looking at that the model is based on that then you have the financial side of the economy that looks like something extremely bad is happening, right how are they balancing that? it is a much tougher balance that we have seen for 30 years, right, because inflation is above the target and in the past, they just said, we don't have much inflation, every time there is financial instability, we cut rates, generate liquidity, much, much harder right now >> jens, do you have any sense of how much counterparty risk some of the major u.s. banks would have to credit suisse? i know, you know, things spread, but just isolating that? >> it is such a weird situation, right? because credit suisse has had bad headlines around its name for so long. it is not something that is popping out of the blue as some would argue the regional bank crisis in the u.s. was from that perspective, i think regulators know what is going on with credit suisse, all the different risk managers of the

big investment banks now how to manage the risks so i think it has more to do with the question of whether it really has sovereign back stop is the swiss national bank going to come in and provide liquidity or not, are they willing to create losses on the creditors within the credit suisse balance sheet? if that's the case, we have real credit contagion they have to make a big decision and it has to be by tomorrow >> by tomorrow all right. jens, thank you. jens nordvig that question goes right to we don't know what we don't know, so how concerned are you in terms of unknown or undisclosed counterparty risk at some of the banks you hold >> well, it would bei idiotic t dismiss it there is a credit cba which ryes to ascertain credit party risk i made the bet that jpmorgan and bank of americas of the world

are -- will they trade down, yes. but in terms of the contagion affecting them, i think not. it is hard to say that's not -- i wouldn't say that's not possible >> you know what is fascinating is that for all the casts we have been through, i had more people in the last three years ask me if their bank account deposits were safe and it is extraordinary. because if you think about the stress that we really haven't felt yet, in banks and in credit, and yet this is where the prevailing public concern is, i'm getting this -- this is from -- >> everyone has a bank account the financial cris iswas built on things that people couldn't understand i was on the floor, when we had rolling closes, people didn't understand what was actually happening when financials were collapsing now people understand, hey, i have a bank account, is it going to be there tomorrow crude reality. oil taking a nosedive to the lowest level since 2021. is there a floor in sight? the bite is back, faang stocks

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2021 the pullback sending energy stocks sharply lower since december resource names from alcoa to cleveland cliffs sinking today guy, what did you make of this >> yeah, well, not good because as you know, one of the os is oil services for me. that got bludgeoned today. look, it seems as though the market is saying global economies are slowing down, energy has got to be -- got to feel some pain that happened in the underlying commodity. in terms of the equities, they're selling first and asking questions later. i don't think the energy trade is over. that's clearly wrong today i still think there is a supply and demand imbalance and i think the companies are extraordinarily well run and probably in terms of balance sheets the best they have ever been but today is not the day to be talking that side of the book. >> and as someone that also has been very bullish on the energy sector, i think some of the dynamics stay very much the same you have to think about what is the dollar done?

every 1% moving the dollar is a 3% move in the oil price or so we have seen over the years. think about the move we had in the dollar but not just the dollar move and i've been getting some data from people like ubs and some of this from bank of america. ctas, commodity trading accounts, massive sellers, look at the resource stocks, steel stocks down 10% across the board today. some of this has been a group trade, some of this has been repositioning. i guess i would just say this on the price of crude do we all think universally there is going to be a deep recession? because if you do, then crude is doing what it is doing on the demand side. but that's not anybody's base case or the people that we talked to. and i know steve has been certainly cautious on the price of oil and i think there is a lot of things that play into it. but right now this is not a demand story >> close to 65, which is your target. >> yeah, but, you know, it is, i think, short-term it goes back to how we started the show a lot of things going on, people

are forced to sell, it might be supply and demand right now. we heard from the soaudis on a daily basis we are 300,000 barrels over supply. russia, still putting out output f th if there is a recession, that all adds to this how deep is the recession going to be? china coming back online wasn't as bullish as everyone thought for the markets. i think you can see the market stabilize here or if it doesn't, we take another leg lower. >> meantime, the volatility index up nearly 15% at one point today, nearly topping 30 but closing well off the highs the index on a big run one option, heavy turbulence might be about to break. brian sutton joins us with the action brian? >> the turbulence people are looking at where can i sell some option premium that being in the credit markets. high yields specifically we saw hyg, we saw lots of activity, daily activity, two times as much average daily

volume in hyg. what happened? we saw a big seller, 62,000 april 72 puts were sold at 95 cents. so that trader basically is willing to take stock, take hyg in, almost half a billion dollars, if hyg were to drop below 72 that's a bet that maybe some of the volatility cools off, and take in some option premium and bet the downside is somewhat near we saw spikes which tracks volatility and sby close lower than two days ago. that may be a reversal instead of the volatility that is occurring that maybe we're getting the washout bottom that may occur and that's why some traders were stepping in and selling options right now. >> brian, thanks a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next >> chomping at the bit faang stocks biting back amid the rest of the market volatility this week is in the ultimate flight to

quality? that's next. plus, don't try to be a hero that's the warning from the big short trader steve iceman, who he says is most at risk in this rising rate environment. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. how do we show strength and stability? (eagle call) a mountain? a tree weathering a storm? (thunder) lions? nope.

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to quality i'll go to karen on this flight to fang, they come up with a lot of -- >> is it mang? >> with meta >> it is mang. >> mang. >> kudos to dan who was saying that actually the fang universe is a good place to be for this reason of relative stability and relative valuation, right? you still have a lot of high flyers in terms of multiples, even though they come down a lot. this universe is still attractive, i think? microsoft is expensive too, but -- >> yeah. >> well, mang outperformed the s&p in the last 47 sessions. if you look at the charts, and we talked about this golden cross and the dynamics that are are very bullish relative to the market, they were relative

underperformers from november of last year through really the end of '22, outperforming all year i would get back to we haven't seen any real earnings warnings out of apple i realize it is a cash rich story. i realize it is the bank of cupertino as one of you smart people coined earlier today. it is a dynamic that i think still has not been priced in i see the outperformance semis have been more impressive on some level because, again, these are companies that at least are thriving in a lower rate environment and a longer duration environment. >> especially when you take into consideration what foxconn said about this year and consumer electronics demand i would think that would be an immediate finger pointing at apple saying there is some softness yet to be seen. >> yeah, it is amazing that we haven't heard that yet, and i thought for a while now it is a foregone conclusion with each passing day maybe that gets put in the rear view mirror. it is a classic, karen started off by saying and dan mentioned

it the last time he was on, in uncertain times there will be a flight to perceived quality in the form of these names. in terms of balance sheets and those types of things, i would say are as good as any companies in the world this comes down to at what point the valuations become a problem. for some of these stocks i think valuations are getting to be a bit of a problem i wouldn't say google necessarily. i don't think amazon either. but apple is probably getting a little long in the tooth and as we mentioned a number of times, microsoft has gotten itself from being relatively cheap to relatively expensive well, it is headed to the expensive side of the ledger as we speak. >> coming up, talk about a return on investment, goldman sachs eyeing a big payday from its deal with silicon valley bank why the heroes attempts could mean millions for the firm our next guest says don't try to be one steve eisman will join us next to weigh in on rates, banks and the market volatility. don't go anywhere. much more "fast money" in two. i'm so glad we did this.

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another check on the markets, stocks closing well off the lows on the day. the dow falling 280 points the nasdaq closing out in the green as investors flocked to technology, but shares of goldman sachs they're down 3%. the company is reportedly set to make $100 million in fees from

services it provided to silicon valley bank. goldman bought more than $21 billion of bonds held by svb and also tried to pull off a last minute capital raise for the bank guy, does this strike you as, i don't know, fishy? something wrong here something doesn't smell right? >> yeah, well, none of those -- yes, the optics are horrible but if you think about it, that's what these institutions do for a living. and people will find it unsavory, i'm sure and in retrospect, i'm pretty certain they probably rue the day this entire thing happened but, you know, that's what investment banking does. we can hate it, love it, but they're just trying to do the businesses that they have been tasked to do. >> all right meantime, our next guest is known for calling and profiting from the housing crisis and when it comes to the latest upheaval on wall street, steve eisman is telling investors, don't be a hero

he's a senior portfolio manager and joins us here on set welcome back to "fast money. great to have you on a day like today. i think, you know, you navigated past crises so well. the number one question here is do you see any sort of a banking crisis unfolding here in the united states and/or in europe >> you know, my partners and i looked at this really carefully. i would say, number one, the large u.s. banks are better capitalized and have less risk than they ever had in anyone's lifetime the european banks, while they're not as well capitalized, they're better capitalized than they are that isn't to say it won't be pain if credit suisse goes down. it is not an '08, thankfully >> so the counterparty risk in terms of transmission mechanism, that doesn't exist >> it does exist it just -- i mean, people have been pulling back from credit suisse for a long time if you hear that the company goes bankrupt, there will be losses it is not death-defying losses

but it is not going to take down the system >> in terms of what we have seen in the reaction across the european bank sector, i guess it is -- everybody wants to get out and figure out -- >> it is a little pit of what i call ptsd from 2008. it is not a bad strategy because the news is probably going to get worse. the news that switzerland is trying to bail out the company, to give you a perspective, i remember in 2008, when everybody was trying to get bailed out, you know, if you looked at the u.s., the size of u.s. gdp was many multiples bigger than all the bank balance sheets combined we looked at credit suisse today, credit suisse balance sheet is $500 billion. the gdp of switzerland is $800 billion. so, could switzerland do something? they could do something. it is not going to be easy not easy at all. the other thing i say about switzerland, unfortunately, is

they really don't have a lost regulators what they actually know is -- i don't think they know a lot. >> that's frightening. and also -- >> in terms of the numbers, if you look at germany, what i heard is it is like 500 regulators in deutsche bank. every day. >> right >> i think the number of regulators of the swiss bank is like 250 for the whole sector. >> but that same impaired with the notion that credit suisse might be too big to save is sort of a frightening -- >> it is frightening and not frightening. it is ugly credit suisse, i'll say euphemistically has been a problem child in the banking industry for as long as i can remember, always had cultural issues but, you know, it will be unwound, it will be painful, only painful for switzerland if i -- you heard today there may be one, ubs to take it over.

trust me, they don't want to take it over, that's for sure. is it possible they could save them maybe. but the credit default swaps like 800 basis points, you can't fund yourselves. i heard they were offering 6% to 7% deposit rates in asia and people were still pulling their money. and nobody will be a counterparty anymore that's more than bad that's really bad. so how would switzerland will deal this is anybody's guess i'm not in the room. >> so, let's switch to the u.s. for a minute with what's happened over the last week that has been revealed and who knows what hasn't been revealed yet, do you see that we're in a new era now for regional banks for what the model will be and how to think about the whole banking structure, the whole sort of business of banking? >> it is not a five-minute question you know, let's see, where can i start?

let me start with, you know, when president trump passed that bill and raised the threshold from, i think it was 50 to 250, now i think that was bad i think elizabeth warren has a real valid point about it. but i -- we looked at the stress test for last year and the stress test for last year had about a line in it about rising rates and the rest of the entire stress test was about credit so, even if silicon valley had been in the stress test, given what the stress test says, i don't think the regulators would have caught it. >> they would have passed it. >> and the stress test is basically fighting the last battle that battle has been won in the large banks. better capitalized, their risk with the capital is much narrower as warren buffett says, when the tide goes out, you see who is naked. this is not a tide this is a tide of a mistake,

which is some of the regional banks, especially those with a lot of deposits above 250 bought long-term bonds at very, very low levels and have massive mark-to-market losses. that's why silicon valley failed they had a very concentrated type of deposit base, which has a very big herd mentality. >> it would be very hard to regulate i mean, if you apply the stress test to a silicon valley that may not have detected the -- >> the stress test they had would not have detected their problems. >> right because nobody was looking for an interest rate risk on the balance sheet. you're just looking for liquidity. >> that's what the stress test has been for the last ten years. >> it is hard to think of a -- in trying to figure out whether or not you invest in regional banks, you figure out what can they regulate to prevent this, this is a very specific situation of interest rate risk which may not come up again for a long time. >> we have it now.

and what i would say to that is, so, over the weekend, we were thinking, okay, so, let's say the government doesn't bail anybody out. so, clearly jpmorgan and bank of america benefit. and it turnsed out even though they got bailed out, jpmorgan and bank of america benefited. our first thought was, maybe we should buy jargpmorgan and bank america and then they thought maybe not. because given what just happened, all the regulations are probably going to get much more stringent, making the banks much less profitable, and that's not going to be clear for many, many months, so why be a hero? because you have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. >> would you say the banking sector now with the uncertainty given what will happen on a regulation front that financials are are uninvestable right now >> i would say no, we were looking as a team at every

single bank. i would say given the change in the regulations, the best you can say is you don't know. and if you don't know, you shouldn't play >> wow so then what do you do let's say you don't know, we don't want to play in this pool, what pool do you go to >> that's not an easy question >> but, i mean -- >> i think what's happening is we're moving from one paradigm to another paradigm. so the paradigm of the last several years has been rates are very low, you're paid to take risks, and you're actually paying to take a lot of risk so, you know, what did the best of the last ten years, high growth tech stocks and what did the best within the high growth tech stocks? super high growth revenue stocks with negative earnings okay so what did the worse last year? super high growth stocks with negative earnings. are people going to go back to that i don't this i so, nk so if rat

up what is coming is tina is dead number one, i think you'll have a much more diversified portfolio. you can leave money in your money market fund because it is over 4%. i'm not sure if it is over 4% tomorrow but it is still around 4%, which is fine. i think over time you'll be able to buy some treasuries and buy some bonds and they're going to be a lot more themes than just tech, infrastructure, bringing the supply chain back to the united states and you're going to need to manage risk a lot more than people have. so, people who have -- who outperformed over the last ten years? tech investors the group is now so volatile, i think everybody should take their exposures down not that you should invest in tech at all, but you should diversify morte of your portfolio, take down your risk, manage your risk, one size does not fit all. and given the fact that, you

know, my team and my partners and i, we go back every single day, is there a recession, is there not a recession? i watch your show, you had people come on and say there is a recession and then a month later, it is not a recession it is a very urn cncertain time because we never had the confluence of stuff we have today. that argues for taking less risk. >> right >> but, steve. >> if we haven't had recession yet, and the s&p never bounced, in terms of market sequencing and we have seen credit reverberations and bubbles just start, how do you see this playing out, both in terms of you doecn't need to give us the crystal ball >> the good news is good, the bad news is bad. in february, good news was bad and bad news was good. let's talk about next week 50 basis points is off the table. either they're going to do 25 basis points or nothing. so let st's start with the noth.

i got calls from today that -- because of credit suisse, maybe the fed will do nothing and that's really positive and my response was, really? you're rooting for a financial crisis so that the fed won't raise rates? the fed doesn't raise rates, maybe it will be positive for a couple of hours or weeks, but the fed won't be raising rates because it is scared well, if the fed is scared, you should be scared on the other hand, if the fed raises rates, even in the face of this by 25 basis points and says we still could raise more, then that's, like, wait a minute, you're caught between a rock and a hard place. financial conditions have really tightened, you still have inflation, not clear -- it is not clear either move is good. >> back be to the ramifications of the regional bank fallout you said you wouldn't want to play given the uncertainty there, but does that also mean you wouldn't short anything and does that mean you're not also looking at some of the ripple effects perhaps maybe on commercial real estate if they

have less access to capital because of -- >> i don't want to talk about individual shorts. >> okay. >> do i think the banking sector is still a short it is imploded so, i mean, would you want a short some of the bank stocks after some of them are down 60%, 70%? i mean, got to have a lot of probably better to mostly stay away do i think commercial real estate, not commercial real estate, office real estate is going to be a problem? yeah, we do. we think office real estate -- but, you know, the way the things unfold, it takes a long time i think what the catalyst will be, it depends on each company, when their debt rolls over if somebody bought that building, two years ago, with long-term debt at 3%, and let's say it is five-year paper and in five years, it is going to roll over and it is going to be 7%, that's not good. it really depends on each

building and each company, how much that they have rolling over >> right steve, we got to leave it there. great conversation we hope you'll come by more often. steve eisman. coming up, how the asian markets respond to tayod's mayhem live to singapore next for a report "fast money" is back in two.

i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work.

we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. welcome back to "fast money. we're a couple of hours away from the start of trading in asia cnbc asia's martin sung joins us from singapore with the first look at the opening bell

overseas martin >> good afternoon, melissa you won't be surprised to know we are bracing for impact again out here in asia after loss on wall street, renewed sil sellinn financials credit suisse, the stock hitting a record low in trading in new york and a couple of hours before most markets get up and running. only new zealand is trading now and it is down and futures are negative in sidney and tokyo how is the contagion risk from the class of svb, signature, silver lake playing out in asia. as you probably know, it is a case of everything everywhere all at once getting hit. no escape, asian markets have been under pressure, significant pressure as well not spared asian banks, though, you're probably interested to know, while that depends where you look broadly, yes, they have it under pressure banks in australia, take a look, held up pretty well.

insulated there, well capitalized, well regulated, more of a commodity story driven by china's reopening ch china is australia's biggest customer for iron ore. and what about banks in china itself they're in their own ecosystem, top-down policy banks, fixated on shoring up the battered real estate structure there and svb was the go to foreign bank for chinese startups. little exposure to the u.s. parent some see opportunity and rushing to fill in the gap after svb's collapse now, the market and also the banks have been hardest hit are over in japan. double digit percentage losses in some cases. they haven't didn't hit this hard since the 2011 quake and tsunami, the fukushima disaster. it is more of a rate story

there. banks are sitting on a ton of u.s. treasuries because rates a home have been so low. they're looking at an estimated $30 billion in unrealized losses on those bonds and if that sounds familiar, where is it is pretty similar to the situation in svb found itself in. back to you guys. >> martin, thanks so much. as we digest what is happening around the world and how it is reacting, think about what steve just said to us, and that is that there is so much uncertainty, you don't want to play in that realm. >> don't be a hero and, listen, if you listen to anybody, it is steve eisman, right? one thing we said last night is you asked if the banks were investable, and the comment was, listen, i think they're extraordinarily tradable, but i don't think investable at all because to your earlier point and one that steve -- we don't know what we don't know. so to take -- draw a line in the sand here and put your stake in it, put your flag in, we're way

early on that front. >> was it monday you said you were going to key corp. for a trade? >> i sold it the next day. one day thing, sold the next day, added to jpmorgan today i think you can trade around this volatility. just keep everything on a short leash. we don't know what we don't know but that is trading and grante this is a lot of energy going into the volatility up and down. >> yeah, you have a trade in first republic now seeing what has transpired, how are you feeling about the trade? >> okay. it is a capital structure arbitrage. as long as the stock stays between 10 and 80, i think it will be a good trade. >> all right up next, your thursday morning setup. stay tuned for businesses of all sizes, there are a lot of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster;

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the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. welcome back as we wrap up the big day on wall street, we wondered in lieu of final trades, what is the first thing you're watching tomorrow morning guy? >> for me has to be the ecb. they promised a 50-basis point hike do they do nothing do they throw in the towel and look towards the safety and security and the well-being of the banking? that to me is fascinating, more fascinating to see how things trade on the back of it. >> yeah. and is there a notion that if the ecb pauses or backs down, does that give cover for the fed to do the same because the fed is facing the same question, financial stability versus price

stability. tim? >> i'll watching the bond market bond yield volatility. i would love to see bond yields stabilize and i'll take two here, no one said i could, the dollar you got to watch the dollar. >> financials. it seems every day this week it has been one day bullish, one day bearish or one day bullish, three days bearish we're coming from such an elevated spot to such a trof in the market early in the day, if you see bid to financials. >> you watch financials every day. >> i do. >> when you wake up. >> i do. credit suisse isn't one i look at, i think tomorrow i think, you know, we want to see what is the message from the swiss government what are they going to do? i think everything else -- well, not everything, the ecb won't -- i think they'll decide regardless of what the outcome is there, but everything else will trade off of that. >> do we continue to see this decline in yields we have seen so sharply, guy?

do you think tomorrow >> yeah, well, i don't know about tomorrow necessarily, but i think overall, yes because i think the world has figured out that the economy is slowing, yields should be lower, we got to that 1% inversion and everything swapped on the back of it, so, yes. >> thank you still be my mission is simple, to make you money. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey, i am creamer, welcome to mad money. my job is not just entertainment, to teach quality.