tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC March 16, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." wall street's wild ride. futures gaining at the open. and extending a lifeline to credit suisse after the all-time record low dragging the banking stocks with it shares are bouncing back we are live at credit suisse hq in a moment. back here at home, the reckoning rolls on after silicon
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valley bank collapse the latest alternatives ahead. why shares of meta and snap are getting a bounce how the white house could be playing a part and later on, baidu rolling out chatgpt, but investors are not impressed. it is thursday, march 16th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. stock futures in the u.s. are in the green. nasdaq doing the best. up .50%. right now, the dow is taking a turn to the negative still encouraging sign after the volatile day yesterday volatile trading day with the dow falling nearly 700 points at its low before clawing back losses you see the movement here. we want to check the bond market
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and move lower in yields over the past several days. the 2-year treasury at its lowest since november. 4.02 10-year treasury is at 3.50. important to note, this is about 45 basis points lower than the 10-year treasury started the month. fears over global economic slowdown hitting oil wti lower yesterday. now just below $68 that is an important move in oil. it is at the lowest level since december of 2021 we see it is up .7.75% a look at cryptocurrency the moves in crypto with bitcoin up more than 1% this morning ethereum is up .7.75% looking around the world red arrows across the board in asia overnight
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hong kong closing down 2% on the day. europe is just getting the trading day under way. green across the grregion in europe cac 40 is doing the best in those indices. and credit suisse, one day after the u.s. shares fell 30%, to hit a fresh record low. the stock this morning is moving in the opposite direction. shares up 20%. you have to see over here. credit suisse shares at $2 a share right now. geoff cutmore is here with more on this story from zurich. good morning, geoff. >> reporter: good morning to you. effectively, the central bank here, snb has stepped in and drawn a line under the pressure we saw on credit suisse yesterday. they provided a $54 billion lifeline to credit suisse. the question is really does
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credit suisse need the money possibly not when you look at the liquidity capital ratio at 150% with the fourth quarter earnings just a month or so back they reported a ct capital 1 ratio of 14% here. this is not, perhaps, about the numbers, but more about the fragility in markets and, i guess, the fact that while markets are worried about ripples emanating from the svb episode, they are looking for weak hands and credit suisse looks like one of the weak hands, as it has been in constant restructuring in recent years and still questions as to its profitability over the near term given the bank told us it
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expect a loss over full year 2023 so, quite understandable, i think, that we have seen the risks around owning credit suisse bonds and equity spike through the last 24 or 48 hours. the regulator will be hoping that they've done enough now to demonstrate to the market that this bank does not have a capital issue. i think we will see some very volatile trade in credit suisse shares today as you get this ebb and flow between the bulls and bears as to where this bank is so cheap and if you believe it will survive its own restructuring program and then perhaps it is a good, long-term hold story the trouble is in the current environment around financials, it is difficult to know how
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confident investors will be to step back in back to you. >> geoff, a lot of questions in the banking sector in europe and here in the united states. we are looking at european banks moving higher this morning in general, is the lifeline by the swiss government being well received by investors? >> reporter: oh, absolutely. i think what this is saying is that the regulators will be willing to step in and provide support when it is a systemically important bank for the financial system i think the regulators learned a lot after 2007 and 2008 when we saw the global financial cricrisis and the meltdown in the banking system the banks have gone through a painful process of running down risk assets over the last decade
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or so and trying to de-risk the balance sheet and prove they are a stable and trusted place to park money of course, we've got a european central bank meeting today christine lagarde will weigh in on whether interest rates need to go a lot higher to tackle inflation, but no doubt, she will dwell on the issues of stability in the european financial system i'm sure that she will also be making it very clear that the ecb is ready to step in where it feels it's necessary to provide support within the eurozone just as the swiss national bank has done for credit suisse back to you. >> gutieoff cutmore, thank you y much. sticking with financialses and the fall of silicon valley bank we have pippa stevens with more on that story. >> frank, this morning, san francisco based lender first
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republic bank is exploring strategic options, including a sale and efforts to shore up liquidity. this comes after ratings and fitch downgraded the bank to junk in the wake of the failure of silicon valley bank and signature. shares are trading at the lowest level in years after falling 20% yesterday. regulators are setting a friday deadline for those looking forbids for silicon valley bank and signature. this will be the second attempt at selling svb after efforts failed last weekend. frank. >> thank you very much. the crisis at credit suisse and stress for u.s. banks and wake of svb collapse is adding
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to the volatility. the vix trading at the height of 30 let's talk more about all of this with vance howard great to have you here in person, van. >> thank you, frank. >> we talked about the vix you have a lot of clients. how does it impact how you balance portfolios last time you were 60/40 how does that change >> it has. we jumped back in the market a little bit we had a change in the trend which was positive two things you don't fight don't fight the fed or the trend. we did have a good call in january. we were 100% vested in january and february we felt good. with the banking crisis a week ago, that changed our outlook. it hit our stocks. it pulled us out of the market a bit. the market is going negative 200-day, s&p is below that 200-day.
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a lot of managers look at that our indicator is looking to hold or turn negative i'm not optimistic i have been with you for a while. i'm the most optimistic guy in the world. i'm always a bull. now is not time to be a bull >> i talked to you yesterday at the coffee shop. you might have to hit the bar. jpmorgan chase out with a note yet yesterday saying this is stressing financial conditions jpmorgan chase said credit growth could cut 1% off gdp and the fed will push the economy into recession later this year jpmorgan chase believes the fed is not done yet. expect 25 hike next week and the final move in may. is it 25 or no move? what is your take on what jpmorgan chase has to say >> i think they have to do 25. if they don't do 25, this
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signals we have deeper problems. you tand i talked about it yesterday. when you have banks imploding, that is a houston, we got a problem call that is the worst that can happen you have the garden variety bear market, but when the financial system breaks like this, you have problems that you need to pay attention to 2008 was a real ordeal when banks and you woke up and bear sterns was $2. >> you said 60% is in equity and qqq. we saw carl icahn who said the valuations are too high. >> i guess we are on the same page i like the mega caps right now they are holding upper value and dividend stocks took a
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beating. we had the holdings. they stopped us out in the last week i think you are seeing a rotation from value into tech. this tech got beat up bad in 2022 i think it is a good place to park money it is holding upp better. treasuries are looking attractive. >> the pick is the ticker bil. in your mind, it is basically cash >> i know it is boring, frank. >> safe and boring right now is okay vance, thank you. coming up on "wex," more on the regional bank reckoning. we talk to one stock which is spared from the selling. we will tell you why. challenging chatgpt. that is easier said than done. investors are not impressed with the baidu latest offering. and transports heading down
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for the sixth day in a row could the report from fedex day turn the tide? we will have more when "worldwide exchange" returns stay with us power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades
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eunice, a lot of people trying to get into the a.i. space >> reporter: absolutely. you saw from the stock, there was a lot of disappointment with the announcement by baidu. stock plummeted 10% at one point after founder robin le has a disappointing presentation for the chatbot ernie bot. he highlighted ernie bot the chinese language skills, are, of course, competitive. during the presentation, he admitted the demo was prerecorded. both the responses of the chatbot and video. that raised a lot of criticism when people said that he said it was to save time a lot of people thought it should be a live demo.
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highlighted the fact that baidu is far behind. the company has boasted that 650 companies have signed on to the ecosystem as they continue to try to build up the technology even though this wasn an officil launch, the company said it is still only a test run in-house and also available to a select tech partners. >> i have to ask you why the name ernie bot any significance to that then number two, not doing a live demo maybe hints this is not ready for primetime. what are people in china saying about ernie bot? >> reporter: yeah, a lot of people have been commenting on the name saying why still they said whiy ernie? in terms of where it stands, there is a lot of discussion of
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the technology and it could be a few generations behind for example, ernie bot does not roll play as chatgpt does. also, a lot of discussion how the chinese chatbot industry has a lot of challenges not only from the technology perspective, but the shortage of a.i. chips due to the u.s. restrictions there is a lot of discussion and rumors that baidu faced that challenge. of course, there is the censorship rules which people in the industry have been saying hampers china's ability to have chatbots go global there is a joke among the tech guys that collectively chinese chatbot is referred to chatccp the concern is, among authorities, they are worried
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about the responses the chatbots could spew out if it deemsly see we are awaiting to get clearance to test out the baidu chatbot. >> i saw in the graphic, a lack of u.s. chips hampering development. a big story in the u.s. that we will follow and you will follow as well. eunice yoon, great reporting ahead here on "wex," big money movers why shares of snap and facebook popping in the pre-market. maybe they owe a call to the white house. we will explain in a moment. dad, we got this.
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welcome back time for the big money movers. we start off with adobe beating the estimates for the first quarter and beating outlook. this is demand for content creation tools the ceo telling jim cramer that digital is a tailwind for adobe. >> digital is an amazing tailwind in the economy. when you look at businesses, whether the creative business or the document business that grew 22% on a constant currency or digital experience business where we are helping companies
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with customers that grew 20% we add strength across the segments which is great. turning to retail. five below with a muted outlook for the first quarter. inventory is strong and it plans to open a record 200 new stores and roll out new categories and services and boosting marketing tactics. turning to space shares of virgin orbit is furloughing nearly all employees as it looks for a new funding lifeline the furlough is unpaid and employees can cash in pto with only a small team continuing to work you see shares are down this morning double digits. meta and snap shares popping on reports that the competition for teen screen time is smaller. we have arjun kharpal with more
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on the story >> good morning, frank a big story developing here. the committee on foreign investment in the united states asked bytedance, the parent of tiktok, to sell tiktok in the u.s. a person familiar with the issue confirmed with bytedance the u.s. concerns that user data from tiktok could be sent and get into the hands of the chinese government tiktok said that selling would not really mitigate this national security risk a spokesperson said if protecting national security is the objective, it doesn't solve the problem. any change of ownership would not impose new restrictions of data flows or access tiktok is against the move
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this is not the first time tiktok has been threatened with a ban, but the first time under the biden administration now and previously trump administration had the same tiktok tried to move to reassure the u.s. on data, but right now, potential ban is welcome by investors in snap and meta with shares popping if it is taken out of the market, these companies could gain ad dollars and time back to you, frank >> the question here is how much of a challenge is it to get tiktok blocked or what could it mean for chinese firms looking to expand in the u.s.? >> i think it will be very difficult. it will be a bumpy road ahead. we saw under the trump administration trying to get this banned.
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tiktok has the legal route at its disposal a long road ahead. in terms of chinese firms, this signals that the u.s. market is shut to a large swath of tech chinese companies. there were sanctions against huawei which crippled the smartphone business and those did not want to enter the u.s. market here with tiktok, the most successful chinese internet company to enter the u.s. market, any ban here, of course, would send signals that the market is shut to the chinese tech players. >> arjun, thank you. straight ahead here on "worldwide exchange. the end of an era and ambitions. and if you miss us, check us out on your favorite podcast app.
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for markets. it is thursday, march 16th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "wex." i'm frank holland. let's check where markets stand ahead of the open. futures right now are a mixed picture. nasdaq in the green. the dow is down. it could open up 90 points at the open this is early. this after another volatile session on wednesday at the lowest point where the dow was down 700 points before trimming losses we now turn to the bond market with the 2-year treasury now at 4.02 you have to remember a couple days ago, it was above 5%. we are seeing the 10-year treasury at 3.519% just about a month ago, excuse me, the start of this month, it
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was 45 points higher something to watch levels we have not seen since february oil is hitting the lowest level since december of 2021 wti back under $70 moving slightly higher brent crude up almost 2% natural gas is the best performer. up 1.75%. pull back in oil hitting energy company stocks in the last week. halliburton is down 14%. marathon oil shed 13.5%. we are looking at conocophillips down 10% chevron is down 4% a lot of down side moves with oil companies. we have green arrows across the board over in europe after the volatile session yesterday julianna tatelbaum is standing by in the london newsroom with more good morning, julianna
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>> good morning, frank we are seeing markets really breathe a sigh of relief we saw a plunge in equities and plunge in the euro on the back of the credit suisse story which shares dropped to the all-time low. here is the picture for the indices. at the early hours of trade, we had the stoxx 600 up 1%. we have come off those levels, but hanging on to the gains for the most part. credit suisse is up 20%. back above the 2 swiss franc share level. it crashed to the all-time low yesterday. the snb stepping in to help the lender to provide assurance to the market we are seeing the banking space move higher in lockstep with credit suisse. we had a plunge yesterday
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acrosacross the stpace the gains are small. euro stocks bank index dropped 7% yesterday yes, we are seeing a rally in the lenders, but it comes after an unbelievable down day yesterday. in terms of the rest of the market, beyond the banking sector, this is the picture for europe yesterday, we saw the defensive parts of the market perform best health care was the positive sector in the trade yesterday. now reversal of the trend. financial services and banks at the top and basic resources under performing frank. thank you. let's get more on credit suisse with geoff cutmore geoff? >> reporter: frank, thank you. julianna commented on the snb. the swiss national bank which
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provided a backstop to credit suisse guaranteeing a line of $54 billion here for the time being, that seems to be enough to calm nerves. that's for the time being. the problem for credit suisse is it just can't seem to get out of its own way. earlier in the week, we had further comments around technical reporting. the s.e.c. has had its issues with the way it thinks credit suisse is compiling its financial reporting. go way back at the end of the year with the news of the significant outflow of client money in excess of $100 billion. there are lots of small cuts here that the market has interpreted into a bigger picture which credit suisse management says is not justified. if you look at the capital levels here, liquidity capital
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ratio at 150% for the end of the fourth quarter ultimately, the ratio at 14.1% numbers would look healthy if it weren't for the fact we had svb and markets being fragile and jittery about financials we have the latest backstop. that, for the time being, should put some confidence back into the share price. as we have seen from the get-go this morning, shares are up strongly as markets begin to believe that just maybe in the interim enough has been done to stabilize confidence back to you. >> credit suisse shares up 20% geoff cutmore, thank you we are watching shares of fedex as the company gears up for results after the bell
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today. investors looking for any insight in the company's cost cutting measures which included layoffs during the peak shipping season after it beat profit expectations, but missed are revenue. fedex is up 15% this year. the transport sector is coming off a five-session losing streak joining me now is ken hoexter. >> frank, good morning congrats on the morning show >> thank you, ken. we have to look ahead to fedex we know they are cost cutting. we dig estimates have revenue falling. your estimates are just about the same what does that say about the company and what people think about the company? >> you got a fixed cost network. that is a problem for fedex. how do align with volumes
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falling down 10% the problem with fedex in that environment is shifting from order at home and stay at home to a normal environment. they have to react they were slow to react and cut costs. even before then, they needed to structurally pull costs out. we had a change of management a yeari yearing -- year ago. we see the costs on the cyclical basis and longer term $4 billion cost to pull that out structu structurally you have to react quicker. that is why revenues are down 5% earnings are down about 40%. >> really dramatic move there. by the way, you mastered the art of understatement.
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you said management change founder fred smith decides to step down. second in command takes over it has been a rocky ride including the drive transformation plan. cuts worker hours and flights for signature express service. 50% of revenue they have an update to that coming up next month in new york city what will you hear on the conference call about the plan in the billions? how much progress do investors need to see during this quarterly call >> that's a great question i think the question is how much do you move? they put a hiring freeze in last june 10,000 opposen positions that could be $4 million in savings there. you mentioned the cuts of 10%. that could be another $60 million. you are talking over $500
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million in savings that is outside the cyclical the cyclical is the parking of aircraft that you mentioned. the post peak season with the shutdown to align volumes today. that is the cyclical nature. the structural is can you pull that forward that is why when you look at e down 40% year over year, any price would be they got the costs out of the system faster that would be key to what investors are looking for in the call this afternoon. >> the big question is investors wondering where you stand with the stock. buy? sell neutral? buy ahead of the print now there could be a big surprise or big letdown. >> you know, we did upgrade this a while ago on the cost cuts i think this is something you mentioned with the management change from fred smith to raj.
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they missed out of the gate last june and the beat they did now it is about raj is in place and he has to put his foot on the company. we think some of the moves like the hiring freeze and cost cutting will bleed in the quarter. that will give you a real opportunity. we have a buy on it. we like it for the quarter i think that can give you an opportunity. one of the best opportunities because you have moves here of cost cutting in a weak environment above and beyond what others are doing. that gives you the opportunity to get the upside which could be a surprise. >> fedex shares up 1.5% in pre-market ken hoexter of bank of america thank you. and facing fallout from the wake of silicon valley bank collapse and fears of the financial sector we have an exclusive
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the stock down more than 60% in the last week. you are looking at the same chart i'm looking at here. one has been spared. that is old dominion bank. out performing the kre in the same time. jim ryan is the ceo of old national bank. he is here with the exclusive. jim, great to have you on. thanks for your time >> thank you, frank. >> old national operates in chicago and other parts of the midwest. >> correct >> far from silicon valley you don't have anything to do with that. i'm sure you have seen the fallout. give us a sense of what your customers are saying about the deposits are they asking you questions? >> well, old national bank has been in business for 188 years our clients have been with us a long period of time. i would like to say we have midwestern sensibisensibility. our clients are concerned, but
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they know the bank is strong and we had long and deep relationships. we have lots of conversations with clients about the strength and stability of regional, but old national specifically and they are comfortable it is business as usual across the midwest and especially here at old national. very strong bank and deep relationships with our clients. >> we have a graphic we want to show the audience. i want to ask about uninsured deposits and unrealized losses silicon valley bank had high level of uninsured deposits and took losses on the treasury investments. the wall here being shown on tv and silicon valley bank had 93% p of deposits uninsured. also, we talked about this, on your balance sheet, you have $5 million of unrealized losses on treasuries give us a sense of what percent is uninsured and how do you resolve the losses on
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treasuries we saw what it did to silicon valley bank, but you have a different business >> our deposit base is very granular half of the deposits come from individuals and the rest from commercial business. the business models like silicon valley bank are different. high concentration of commercial clients with big relationships ours is individuals and small businesses that make that up for us, it is different. in terms of investment, all banks and individuals and banks and corporations have bought fixed rate investments over the years. as interest rates risen, the value has come down. the banks are good at managing the tradeoffs with having long-term investments and generating near-term liquidity i think the fed program that came out on sunday was a real boost to confidence that in case we need to go and pledge assets to generate liquidity for
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depositors, we will be there with the fed being there the bank is overall in good shape and pleased with the programs announced to date. >> do you have a rough number for uninsured deposits >> it is not a big thing roughly one-third. by any comparison, we would show up very well relative to the industry >> okay. i'm not that well versed in the banking industry, but we have gotten a crash course in banking. the vast majority is from net interest income. people deposit and you loan money off the deposits and there is a spread there. the crisis, a lot of people are saying the money will go to the big banks. what does that mean for your business you have a lot of people banking with regional banks. what do you think about the need for the services you provide i know regional banks are the biggest lenders in the areas they are in.
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>> that is a great point there is a risk that the big banks get bigger they play an important need for the u.s. economy so do mid sized banks and community banks. we serve different markets and communities. i think it is important we have a very diverse and robust set of banks. so, i think it is a long-term shame if the big banks keep getting bigger and takes away from our ability to serve smaller markets and rural markets. it is important to have banks of all sizes to serve all clients in the united states. >> jim ryan, ceo of old national bank you took a polar plunge to support charity. jim ryan, great to see you here on "wex. >> thank you ahead on "wex," we have amy wu silverman with what to watch in the markets.
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and we are celebrating women's heritage and those on our cnbc teammates as we head to break, here is kate spade ceo liz frazier >> i really want people to understand the acute impact that women's mental health has on their ability to feel empowered. women's mental health has been under acknowledged and funded. i'm the mother of a daughter and the ceo of a female-founded brand. the vast majority of our base is women. this is why at kate spade, we have mental health at the heart of our work. let's use women's heritage month to think about how we can do it.
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time for the "wex wrap-up. shares of snap and meta surging over tiktok with the possible ban in the u.s. baidu moving in the opposite direction after chatbot ernie bot missed expectations. virgin orbit is furloughing employees and pausing operations for a week as it looks for a funding lifeline. adobe beating on earnings and boosting the outlook shares are moving higher this morning. google the pulling the plug on sales of the augmented reality glass. this is the second time in the last ten years it discondiscontd that hardware. we are gearing up for the trading day ahead. february housing starts are out
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at 8:30 a.m. dollar general and fedex report. the ecb is meeting today with the rate decision at 9:15 a.m. the markets are pricing in a 45% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike down from 100% odds last week before the collapse of silicon valley bank and crisis at credit suisse let's stick with that and the trading day ahead and bring in amy wu silverman with more on the markets. amy, grateeat to have you here. >> thank you >> we are looking at credit suisse and look aging at the regional banks in the u.s. give us some options. >> what is interesting is before the silicon valley bank news last week, we saw put buying in kre, the region bank index we saw it in kbe and xlf
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what we have seen after the collapse of silicon valley bank, we have seen the investors saying what we were looking for in down side exposure, we got that from trade. we closed that down. one thing that would concern me is a slew of more downside buying we have not seen that in market. >> that is interesting also this friday, we have triple witching day the monthly options and quarterly options expiration will that have an impact today and tomorrow >> i think it will especially in terms of the short-term moves a lot of exacerbation of moves that happens when options comes into play. obviously, you know, options expiration is something to watch. frank, these tend to be negative drags in the short-term because
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of options expiration. usually it is a clearing event now this time is different because we also have the fed decision on march 22nd usually you see volatility come in, but it stays big with the major event. >> we have the ecb decision today. our fed decision next week how do you see theses moments impact the markets >> it is really tough. a rock and a hard place. a pickle what else can you say? >> use another met tmetaphor >> we are definitely seeing the options market say the magnitude of swing an lis larger. we look at the put option and call option. all it can tell us is the
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magnitude of swing an lis large. you saw the inflection of bonds and options. the uncertainty is high. people are waiting for the event to give direction to where we go in the next year >> absolutely. we were talking about the vix. we saw wild swings in the market yesterday. we have the ecb designicision lr today. where do you see the areas you would stay away from >> it does get to a point when it is interesting because at these volatile levels in banks, i should sell options. i don't think anyone is daring to do that at this point i see people saying if we have the situation where the banks are not doing great, what is rolling down the line?
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we are seeing downside in airlines downside expressed in the consumer trade i think what investors are saying what are the lead-on effects from the fact that the fed has broken something who can go next? where is the next downside we see downside expressed in these consumer trades that previously were quite strong >> always appreciate the insight. amy wu silverman of rbc. thank you. that is it for "rlidwodwe exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next
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from the swiss national bank we take you live to zurich moments. the white house looking to ban tiktok if they don't difficdivest virgin orbit looking to furlough most of the staff and looking for a lifeline. it is thursday, march 16th "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in sometimes square i'm kelly evans alongside andrew ross sorkin. joe and becky are both off >> welcome to the show. >> welcome to the -- >> the early alarm how did it
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