crashed out already. women's hockey is in the frozen zb four. >> thank you for playing ball. we appreciate it >> i'm just going to go away now. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> i'll be back tomorrow hopefully tyler will too "closing bell" starts right now. all right, kelly, thanks so much welcome to the "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live post nine. this hour we begin with stocks surging today on news of a rescue for first republic. one of the regional banks in the eye of the storm other banks sharply higher as well concerns around those names seem to ease a bit. at least for the moment. here is your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. dow ripping higher it is the nasdaq that is a key part of the story today. it is at the highs of the session. right now megacap tech stocks are outperforming the market as we will show you

that's our talk of the tape. your move, jay powell. for more on how stocks will react no matter what the fed does, let's ask liz young, here at post nine with us so, we'll get to the rescue of first republic and the implications moving forward in a moment i want to start with a question of the moment, should the fed hike or pause? >> you know, i've changed my mind about 14 times on that on the last 24 hours. i think the responsible thing to do right now would be to pause only because i think it looks like if they hike, they are not paying attention to everything else that is going on. however, even if we get a pause, i think they hike again. i don't think that's the end of it i think we continue to get another hike the risk here is that i don't think the market likes it either way. i don't think the market like

2likes 25 basis points. yields are up and growth is up, they both can't win. we moved into this area where we're waiting for every tiny little piece of news and i'm worried that we're not as investors stepping back enough and looking at the bigger picture that we have gotten so many bad headlines over the last five days that we can't continue at this clip. >> no matter what the fed does. >> i think some of this rally is predicated on the idea that the fed might pause and reverse course and the idea that we have seen some bailouts or some rescues, so that there is a back stop again but the rally, look at what is actually rallying, right growth stocks, large cap tech is rallying the nasdaq is rallying it is as if investors continue to be -- we can carry on

what i would warn people about is if inflation -- we have the six handle on inflation, okay? if inflation does stay that high or if they reverse course before it is fixed, we have a semipermanent higher cost of capital. that is not good for growth stocks >> there is an idea, we'll get more to the tech trade in a minute it raised a lot of eyebrows over what it has been doing there is a suggestion that what has happened over the past five, six days or so has done a lot of the fed's job for it at least in the near term. eric rosengren, former boston fed president, interest rates should pause until the degree of demand destruction can be evaluated. it undoubtedly what has happened is a contractionry event. so the argument is why not pause? take a look around you don't lose anything by 25, no 25, for one meeting, big deal >> well, and that's why i've gone back and forth about should they, should they not? i think you lose sort of control

around the liquidity environment in the sense of if they do pause, there is a chance that the market really likes it, and financial conditions ease on the back of that, which is actually the opposite of what they need to happen for inflation. so, you know, looking -- even at the european central bank today, hiking 50 basis points, their inflation rate is higher than ours now. >> markets -- look, if you told me yesterday, quite honestly, ecb is going to go 50, and we're going to be on the air for closing bell at 3:05 and the s&p will be up near 1.5% and the nasdaq up 2.3% and the dow will rally by 300 points, i'll say that's unlikely, and yet here we are. >> here's the thing. if they pause next week, the intention would have to be crystal clear. it would have to be they're waiting to make sure that there weren't more cracks in the system that would actually do the rest of the job for them, right? if they do 25 next week, i don't think that's a catastrophe

i think that's pretty consistent with what they have been saying. the risk is that then there is this narrative they purposefully are putting us into a recession or trying to break more, even though there are signals that things have already broken. >> the news that we are still digesting from today, right, what david faber was reporting earlier, this rescue injection of deposit money from many of the big banks, if not all of them, sort of like a bear hug, like we got your back. first republic was up a lot on that initially now it is up 5%. do you feel like the worst is over as it relates to the whole banking issue or are you still nervous about what else is out there? >> i heard somebod say yesterday there is rarely one roach in the wall. that's probably true what happened since last thursday particularly on friday is that we found out it wasn't going to become this huge crisis that everybody was going to raise their hands and say, not our problem, let the market figure itself out.

what i would say, though, about what is happening today, and the headlines that we have reported and talked about, these are not headlines that you get during stable market conditions, and these are not headlines that you get especially because now there is a theme to the headlines. it is not just one's isolated incident it is a theme around the u.s. and around the world this is not stuff that happens in the beginning of an economic expansion. this is not stuff that happens when the markets are comfortably moving in an upward direction. i do think we have seen the last of the stress? absolutely not >> yeah, happening in tech. this idea that megacap is back as the storm the defensive led trade that worked 13, 14 months ago and prior, that was out of favor last year, suddenly it is back is it legit of staying power >> so, this is going to be an

intricate way to say this. if we do have another drawdown, i think it is because we find out that the economy is actually worsening, it is one of those bad news becomes bad news snare ye scenarios. if that's the case, it is possible that tech does not get hit as hard. i think tech had its worst hit last year. it is possible that it holds up better than the rest of the market, but it probably still goes down because valuations get hit in any scenario like that. i think cyclicals would get hit harder than tech in that case. however, i don't think that it is going to be what leads on the other side of something like that and that's where i would caution people to -- i use this kenny rogers song all the time, don't count your money while you're sitting at the table don't assume just because rates are coming down and you think we have seen the peak in rates they'll stay low and that will be absolutely positive for tech. >> i understand. if you make -- let's break the

relationship between rates going down and tech doing well because that's not necessarily the story today for example. it is a more micro focus on companies producing cash hand over fist. >> ure >> which is trumping everything else especially in this environment >> yeah. >> so forget about rates as long as we're in this new environment of five, six days ago, why won't these megacap tech stocks continue to work >> part of it is tech went through this cycle before anybody else did they got hit last year already this year you've seen all the job cuts occurring, mostly in tech you've seen the cost cutting occur in tech. that's been rewarded by the market, rightfully so, because they should react that way and they should manage their operating margin by cutting costs and that's something that deserves being rewarded. if we go back into an expansion, if the cost of capital is semipermanently higher, that's a drag for tech. and now they have cut resources they were using to produce that

growth it takes longer to build those resources back up and get approval to build those resources back up so they're coming out of it with less than what they started with in an environment where the cost of capital is higher. >> they are becoming more nimble and more fit by the job reductions they have in. let's bring in joe terranova i like the way you put it, as we're having this conversation about whether the fed put is back, you say the megacap put is back alon theg the lines of this conversation. >> we're all talking on sunday about the federal reserve back stop it is the megacap beck stop. you're looking at whether it is meta, amazon, alphabet, microsoft, they're up 9% this week clearly that's allowed there to be a degree of support underneath the overall index and i think what that's going to do,

quite candidly if this continues and the s&p is sitting at 39.50 right now, i gagree with you, we should not be raising rates at the meeting next week. if the market is sitting here and i'm chairman powell, i go another -- >> why shouldn't we be let me just play the other side of the debate, why shouldn't we? 25 basis points is going to make that much of a difference? what if they said -- what if it is a dovish hike it is 25, but we get it. now we look around ecb goes 50, dow is up 320 why not? >> so, back in 1994, i keep telling you about this orange county bankruptcy, that's what chairman greenspan did he went after the orange county bankruptcy, one more time in february of '95 and then dhe was done i believe he's either done on wednesday our he's done after that this is so disinflationary that

he is going to have to pause why i'm saying if he wants to go 25, which i don't think he should, if he wants to go 25 on wednesday, the market is giving him a little bit of a free pass. >> still six days before the decision the market is not doing anything >> if the market is here next wednesday, he's got a little bit of a pass. i don't think he should do it. i think they should be done and they'll be done after wednesday or going into next week. >> do you think, liz, that -- is the market picture worse today than it was one week ago today >> yes. >> or the same >> i think it is worse today. >> because of the banking issue? >> because we have identified some fragilities in a big sector, in a sector that all americans would like to feel safe in. we identified fragility, i don't think we knew it existed entirely some people knew but the broad market did not know they existed last week thursday i'll tell you why i think they

shouldn't go next week, because it would confuse the narrative they consistently said we're data dependent, we are making sure that financial stability is in tact. if they're data dependent, they have to wait for the data to come in. we know this will be disinflationary. i don't think it will be enough to be fair but they don't have any extra data that says it is actually working yet. >> i don't know. if you listen to what rosengren is talking about, this is undeniably going to have an impact on demand credit growth is going to be slower loan growth is going to take a hit. so, demand and sentiment, by the way, consumer sentiment, how can it not be somewhat impacted by all this confidence and the like if demand is going to be destroyed somewhat by these events, then he doesn't have to do anything, does he >> demand gets destroyed after you break confidence

and these events absolutely broke confidence i believe it is one of the reasons the big banks are trying to place these deposits of billions of dollars into first republic it restores a degree of confidence we need that confidence to return once again. so, i think we're going back and forth on 25 basis points, not 25 basis points i think they have to stop. i think the biggest question right now for this market is what goes on as we look forward for positioning. you can't tell me this week that you have not had a capitulation of consensus and consensus was energy, financials, healthcare, right? shorting bonds, being long commodities, all of that has been unwound through the entirety of this week. and now you had that capitulation, how does the market think about that going forward? where should the consensus be? should be in growth, in value, in commodities, bonds?

>> to your point, liz, the whole -- the whole investment playbook has been turned on its head in six days. the things that we thought were going to lead this year to begin with hadn't been working anyway, what led last year like energy and tech was beaten up and here it is one of the leadership groups but now if you're worried about a recession being pulled forwar by virtue of what happened through this issue, is not the whole playbook turned on its head >> it is, yes. the other thing i would say is, like you said, it has been six days, we probably look back on this period and it looks like a quick flash in the pan during a time when things like bond volatility and stock volatility have risen so quickly and been all over the place, i don't think this is a time you make big moves in the portfolio, i think you wait and hold until we have more information, which is probably the fed meeting. i don't think you need to do

much of anything i assume a lot of people have already concentrate the themselves on the short end of the curve in money market funds, things like gold gold is a consensus call and i would be on the side of that. >> joe is on the side of that consensus call he's been buying gold. one part of the commodity space getting a lot of attention as you alluded to with energy mark fisher, your buddy, used to work for him, says everyone was short bonds, long oil. that's been blown out. he called me earlier, here's what's going on. no one wants to buy oil with recession fears percolating. a buyers strike and no real reason to buy it either. this is somebody who looks to be nimble in and out, depending what is happening at the time. he said oil should be bought at 65 and sold at 85. in a wide range according to him. it is still too early to buy it, though. >> the market might be exposed to a little bit of that trendless environment as we go into earnings where there is a little bit of a strike on the part of new capital that wants

to come in and try to figure out where we should be concentrating. i think looking forward over the coming weeks, that's a condition we might have to be dealing with until we get an understanding has there been a further deterioration in earnings? >> we'll leave it there. joe, liz, thank you very much. let's get to our twitter question is tech the new safety trade want to know from you. please vote. we have the results coming up later on in the hour news alert with pfizer mel tarerrell is here with that >> a panel of outside advisers just voting now in favor of pfizer's antiviral paxlovid getting full approval. it has been available under emergency use thornlgauthorizat. there were a couple of issues that the committee had to consider that were different

from the time when this drug was studied. for example, most people now have either been exposed to the virus or vaccinated or both. in the trial, people were not vaccinated the trial was run during a period when the delta variant was circulating. now it is omicron. they voted in favor of this drug it is a $19 billion product this year for pfizer. so very important for pfizer back over to you. >> no doubt about that meg, thank you very much up next, the message from a top rated financial adviser. how defensive should you be in this market now? we'll debate that. go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science.

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we got 40 minutes to go in this trading day let's get a check on top stocks to watch as we head to the close. kristina partsinevelos joining with us that. >> i have a retail theme today it may not be good news for parents. mattel shares are above 4% right now. it was reiterating its full year guidance and they would continue to raise prices in 2023. this is a company that makes those monster dolls and star wars plush toys. they'll be cutting production, keeping prices high, so margins stay in tact dollar general is blaming its mixed earnings report and weak profit outlook on higher borrowing costs. profit should take a 3% hit. but the ceo promised to invest $100 million in 1,000 stores across the country with much

cash going to higher labor costs. the stock is down over 2%. >> all right see you in a little bit. stay defensive and hedge your equity exposure that's the message to high net worth clients from a top rated private wealth advisory team chris toomey is back with us good to see you. especially during these times. you've been negative, you shared that consistent view with us and our viewers for months do the events of the last week make you more so >> i think so. from our standpoint, we have been pretty patient in our defensive position we watched rates go higher we saw the multiple contract and we started to see that flow into negativity with earnings. we think that started, but this operates in long lags. so we have been a little bit antsy with regard to the fact this has gone longer and we think there is a reason for it the reason has been there was so much liquidity put into the

system, there were these additional facilities put in place, which elongated that liquidity and these businesses, where they didn't really have that judgment day and i think we're starting to see all of that work the fed do come to fruition. >> what does that mean for -- if you're more net negative than before, where do you think stocks are going from here >> i think we're -- what i would say is we're not at the end, we're at the beginning of the end, what we're seeing here is a situation where -- >> the beginning of the end of the pullback >> the beginning of the end of where we start getting more excited about putting money to work. >> okay. >> what we're seeing is the market is realizing all of that activity that the fed is put in, in such a quick fashion, is really creating breakage in the system so we saw that specifically within the banks, which we think are the things providing liquidity and the acceleration with regards to growth and as they start to have problems, we start to think that that will manifest itself in other places within the economy

>> so, that leads me to the fed. right? what do you think the fed is going to do next week? what you to think they're going to do? we all have opinions, they don't matter. >> i'll answer it two ways the market is like a coin flip, 25 or 0. i think in reality it doesn't matter i think the damage is done this is the situation where the guy at the bar has eight shots of tequila and you know what, like, having a bunch of coffee or stopping to brink the tequila doesn't matter the damage is done we're going to start to see breakage in the economy. despite the fact that if the fed pauses, what has happened, the damage has already been done >> but then, has to run its course what reverses -- if they stop, if they don't hike anymore, doesn't that lessen the damage even if some of it has already been done, it doesn't take the next step of making it worse. >> i think what we'll start to see is we'll see some real damage within underlying businesses themselves.

some businesses that really shouldn't be operating at a level where the cost of funds is at this level have to start to come down in value and start going out of business. we started to see some of these people that were offsides getting caught offsides and i think we'll see more of it you never see a situation where you have this breakage in isolation. it is something that will fester throughout the rest of the economy. for that reason, i think you still need to be defensive you need to sit on cash and don't want to be aggressive with regard to adding equity exposure. >> let me let everybody know, the official release of the favor reporting is now out that consortium of banks, what it is, all of the big names on wall street plus the likes of bny melon and pnc, truist, stat bank, with the heavyweights. you see on the screen the amount of money we're talking about uninsured deposits totalling $30 billion in first republic trying to at least give a little bit of a

rescue here and ease some of the concerns, soothe the markets, however you want to characterize it now that the release is out, the stock is back on the move higher when news of this broke with david, the stock obviously took a big leap up. then it dipped negative for a second, right on the line, and it is on the way back up by some 12%. we'll keep our eyes there. there is nothing to say, by the way, that there is more. that there are other banks that somehow have a major problem >> that's pure speculation i think from our standpoint, it just demonstrates the fact that there are problems within the economy that are starting to manifest themselves. some of those we can anticipate, so these are businesses that are dependent on liquidity, these are businesses running out of money. these are businesses that are trading at higher multiples. those are the places we think will have the most problems. but i think the fact of the

matter is we don't want to speculate, we want to talk specifically about facts banks are going to be raising their credit standards, liquidity will be drying up and that's negative for equity. >> you want to be then more in cash than you have been in the past you had the most cash, i think, than you ever had. >> i think we're pretty happy with where we're positioned. we're pretty happy that the market is coming to us and we're looking where the opportunities are to deploy that cash >> your head gets comfortable on the pillow at night. i hear you what turns you more aggressive what is the one thing you're looking for? >> real pain in the market the market coming down significantly or values, we think, are more -- prices are more equipped to the values that we put on them i'm thinking, you know, probably 10 to 20% we should start looking to put money into work that's 3600 where he start looking. >> you think you get another 20%? >> i do. >> wow

we'll see. we'll talk to you again. i know we will that's chris toomey, morgan stanley private wealth management when we return, why our next guest is betting the fed will get it right next week will they hike and should they getting another check as well on that question. here is another check on the markets here everything is up at least 1% nasdaq the outperformer. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.

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stocks are rallying into the final hour of trading. nasdaq on pace for its best week in nearly two months our next guest, though, still believes that markets are heading back to their october lows let's bring in cnbc contributor greg branch. good to see you again. why are we going back to the lows for the obvious reason of something broke and things will continue to deteriorate? >> yeah. for the opposite reasons we have seen the rally this week what is going to happen is different than what we think should happen.

i love you made this distinction with joe it doesn't matter what we think should happen or what we want to happen right now i think discounting those things versus what the evidence says is going to happen so a week ago, there was a 70% chance based on fed funds trading this a terminal rate, there is a plausible scenario that's where it would be now there is a zero percent chance that it will be above 5%. we have seen a motion takeover and people take the position that the fed is done or that the fed should be done or that we're back to folks postulating we're going to have rate hike -- rate cuts in the back of this year. i don't think that's a plausible scenario, which means there is downside in negative surprises in store that i think will shape the market. >> let me ask you this you obviously are dialing back your own expectations of how high the fed will go, right?

you're the one who came on a week or so -- a couple weeks ago, i think, two weeks, whatever it was, and said 6.25, 6.5, i was, like, really, you're, like, yeah now, obviously you have to be dialing those back as you said so, how can you be as negative as you were before if at the same time you're dialing back your own expectations of how high the fed will go well, both things can be true and you're right, i'm considering whether or not they need to go that high because while i do agree with liz, two months from now we won't be talking about this anymore, it is still doing the fed's dirty work for them. you cannot put companies in liquidity crunch and not have that -- have the impact on unemployment that the fed is looking for. so this will do some of the fed's dirty work, which means i am considering coming down a bit. i'm still so far away from consensus. the reality i see is very

different than the reality that the consensus sees as long as i believe that to be the case, i believe the market has a negative surprise in store and we know what happens when we have negative surprises, we get equity values that are less what they are today i don't believe this market can sustain itself. >> what if the fed doesn't do anything next week does that change your opinion? does that tell you that they have, you know, they have seen what can happen by virtue of what they have already done and they don't want it to get worse. what if they do nothing? >> it will depend on what they say to us, scott if they do nothing and say we're done, we'll wait some months and we think what we have done is enough and we'll wait for the lag to kick in, then, yes, that may change my opinion. but if what they do is say we'll pause and wait for the fragility in the system to heal, that will worsen my opinion because what it means is we're dragging the rate hike cycle out long near the future than we otherwise would have it will be dependent on the commentary about what they do. i do not think that's a

plausible choice for them to pause. >> if they did say, they're paying attention they get it. and i think the market would like the fact that, you know what, we're not giving up on this fight against inflation but we're also not discounting what just happened right? we missed some of the signals in the past regarding inflation we have made mistakes. and we're not going to make this mistake and there is no reason to rush. >> i don't believe there is a reason to rush but as liz and i think joe would say, don't think a 25 basis point hike is a meaningful enough of a number to really cause any consternation in the mark e market i think they're very, very sensitive to sending mixed messages and so they certainly won't go

50 i think that's -- that would say they're tone deaf and not necessarily paying attention to the fragilities we have just covered. but i don't think they'll go to zero that would signify that they're done joe just said that or the fight is over i don't think they want to send that signal either. >> we're going to see. the talk for the next six days, you better believe that. we'll see you soon once again, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close we're about 25 minutes or so a little less than that away kristina partsinevelos. >> what we're seeing is office real estate the next big threat? we'll look be at the stock bes that could be caught up with that concern all of those details and more coming up right after this short break.

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20 to go until the close kristina partsinevelos standing by for the stocks we need to watch. >> so, progressive getting a double upgrade to overweight from wells fargo they like the company's results. shares up already 5% and analysts at wellsing foro cutting the price target of a number of office landlord, they say the office space is facing,

quote, everything everywhere all at once with head winds from rate hikes, employment picture and remote working trends, names like boston properties, killroy realty all down, well down, 3%, 4% across the board. there you have it. >> thank you for that update last chance, weigh in on our twitter question we asked is tech the new safety trade? head to twitter. the results are after this break. young lady who was, you know, mid 30s, couple of kids, recently went through a divorce. she had a lot of questions when she came in. i watched my mother go through being a single mom. at the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself. and so once the client knew that she was heard.

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nasdaq up 2.5% little bit of relief in the banks today. and that is helping the russell 2000 the small caps russell up 1.6%. is tech the new safety trade majority of you saying it is not. 53.5%. up next, fedex reports in ot we'll talk to a top analyst with a look at what investors should watching. that and much more when we take you inside the market zone ♪♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones.

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we are now in the closing bell market zone mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. brynn talkington on where she's

investing in tech and energy celine becker on fedex ahead of that earnings report in overtime mike santoli, a stress relief, this rescue, if you want to call it that, into first republic helped sentiment >> the bets that this could be localized, that we could basically kind of take care of isolated issues in the banking system and not have it spill so far are getting into the money that along with what i would characterize as a little bit of a chase into the new found momentum in the big growth stocks it looks like it is getting extended in the short-term, but it has a certain logic to it, a catch-up move. all of that is taking this index, the s&p back into last thursday's range i think it is important to keep that in mind last thursday we lost 100 points that was when the silicon valley bank stuff started to come to the surface and to everybody's attention and we're back into that range expiration tomorrow, sentiment

pounded down to depressed levels everything you look at, the retail investor pool, that's the function of a lot of these scary headlines was to get those folks a little bit spooked now we have a retracement trade. i'm not sure you want to extrapolate that the nasdaq 100 right now is back to as high a premium relative to the s&p in terms of pe as it was at the peak in november of 2021. so everyone is piled in a hurry. >> you think the reaction today has anything to do with saying, okay, ecb, we absorbed it, we're okay if the fed goes or -- >> i absolutely think that's a piece of it. at least in the sense that maybe the stakes are perceived to be dialed down a little bit i've always thought the stakes between zero and 25 basis point move is not huge economically. but was it going to be huge in terms of market psychology it is not like we're sitting here trying to figure out an answer that already exists in

terms of what they're going to do it is not determined what they're going to do. they don't know what they're going to do. they don't know what the next five days hold we can talk about, you know, the trade-offs and the perceived risk/reward of doing one thing or another i think the idea that this problem there is a pause sooner than we thought there was going to be. two-year note at 5%, over a week ago. >> incredible. it is incredible you think about that. >> absolutely. >> where rates have gone brynn, you heard what mike said about the nasdaq and the premium to where it is trading ahead of the s&p. which was a stunning stat. implication being this can't last for much longer, can it >> i agree with mike so, tech stocks are acting like we're going into a soft landing. and energy and bonds are acting like we're going into a recession, andacting like we'reo a depression energy is oversold and tech

stocks are overbought. you have this trading, this big rotation out of energy specifically and into tech, and so i think it is overdone on both sides. >> overbought, can get more overbought in tech if they're deemed to be -- the idea we posed at the top of the show, whether the stocks are back as defensive plays. now, our twitter poll suggested that, you know, at least the sample of the viewers who voted suggest it is not. >> yeah, i think multiples matter, though i don't think that -- i own apple, the qs. so i think it is great these companies are going higher but do i think microsoft is going to touch 300 anytime soon? no i just think that multiples do matter the nasdaq has still done 17% per year for the last ten years. it is overearned this is more about positioning and trading versus investors trying to extrapolate some

longer term trends i would be careful here adding to new positions in technology >> would you be careful adding to energy, which has been a surprising loser to say the least? >> yeah, no. you know, i should have taken steve's devin yesterday when he sold it. i added to my energy names this morning. i added to xop, bhp, which is a diversifiied commodity play and another etf, rye, which is 25 different energy names i think i'll trade around those. i think people -- the narrative shifted too quickly. we're going into hard recession, when i think that the fed is going to be able to fix the plumbing, and if they fix the plumbing, and they put this program together, i think that we are going to be able to separate the two, i just think markets are very skittish now and they're using energy as a source of funds to buy technology. >> they're buying gold too

as part of the commodity complex. what do you make of that >> when you really trade commodities, most people stay within the commodity complex as you're seeing rates are coming down, that gives you a bid to gold. i think the trade is somewhat started to play out. if we do get the fed, we're going to pause, i think the fed will pause quantitative tightening and will stop increasing the balance sheet because they already are doing qe with this new facility and that's another narrative where gold can have a bid if the balance sheet is not getting reduced and if those financial -- the financial tightening is looking to ease from the fed, that helps that gold narrative as an ultimate flight to quality. >> brynn, thank you. brynn talkington helene becker is joining us now. we look ahead to fedex and the results in overtime. nice to see you. i was reading some research today and some general reports about this company, stock is up

20% since december reading an analyst here who said we do not believe the optimism is yet justified what about you >> yeah. we have an outperform rating on fedex and our view is that you have a pretty new management team, relatively new ceo, and cfo, and they're really focused on getting costs down. one of the biggest announcements they had earlier this year was that they were going to have layoffs of about 10% of the corporate workforce of senior managers and they never have done that. they usually offer early retirement programs, or things like that. but this was the first time they actually went down the layoff path and i think they're serious about wanting to cut costs, and i think that's part of it. so, even though we expect volumes to be down, and you probably knew this better than i do, but most of the time after they report earnings, the stock goes down the next day

so, i'm not that hopeful about tomorrow, but as i think about fedex over the next six months to a year i'm pretty optimistic. >> do i see this correctly, though, that your price target on the stock is 185? and you know it at 205 now so, is that right? yeah, no, i think our price target is closer to 220. >> closer to 220 maybe that's the new one i'm looking at a bit of an old research report. are the -- myapologies for that cost cutting plan, is it enough? >> well, i don't know the answer to that question specifically. i'm going to say yes but i think when you -- when i think about these companies, whether it is in my airline universe or fedex or u.p.s., i think that they have to be vigilant all the time. because costs can kind of get out of control, especially

during the peak shipping season. when they have to hire lots and lots of workers and in january, a lot of workers leave because they're just seasonal. so, they really have to be vigilant so that head count doesn't get out of control, coming out of the peak and then they have to prepare for the next peak, which they do most of the year so, kind of long way of saying we think they can do it. but they have to prove that they can do it. >> all bets off if there is a recession? >> well, yes but you make me sad, but, yes, i think if there is a recession, that's consumer led, that causes people to retrench and rethink how they're spending their money, they turn to more savings rather than spending, then, yes, i would expect the shares to sell off again >> all right, helene, thank you. we'll see what they deliver.

back to mike santoli as we walk up to our two-minute warning you'll hear the sound effect coming in about 15 seconds or so looking at yield complex, we're back above 4% on the two-year, 4.17, maybe the expectations of a move by the fed next week they're starting to get ratcheted up and digested. >> they're getting rebuilt and also, you know, we talked yesterday about how there was just such a violent squeeze in the short-term and of treasury curve and the fed funds futures that it seemed as if you weren't getting a very considered read on what the market really expected and now it is relaxing a little bit off of that i will point out, we were also, february 2nd, above 4% on the ten-year it is all kind of come down to this point where we don't think there is that much more to go and the risks are to the downside in terms of what the fed might be forced to do. so even though we're getting a little bit of comfort for the moment, that regulators and

industry consortium has come to the rescue of some of the troubled financial institutions, you never are quite sure that that's the end of it we'll be on alert for that commercial real estate, that whole sector is urgently for sale right now in the market and that's kind of where a lot of the regional and smaller bank conservatives and retrenchment is going to hit in other sectors. i still feel like we're going to be in this monitoring closely mode for a lot of different pulse points in the economy, but the market has been resilient in itself and it is sort of the mix of stuff in the index as essentially really helped. the russell 2000 got blasted there is too many bank finance companies there. >> nice and broad today. communication services technology are are the outperformers, but financials, obviously, for obvious reasons, up near 2% discretionary up near 2% materials doing all right.

>> and it is healthy, not overwhelming, but pretty good. volatility is down three points on the day that's got another decent spike on the chart and tomorrow is quarterly expiration we might have some of this exaggerated upside action just because of some of the maneuvering around that. >> that does it for us morgan and jon pick it up in ot. another day of big market moves with the rally into the close here that's the score card on wall street but the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." we're moments away from the earnings results from fedex. the full analysis of those numbers. >> and a rare conversation with marissa mayer, current co-founder of sunshine on the svb collapse, the big tech ai race and muc