it was a shame. it's a sad story. welcome to the third and final hour of "squawk box" here in europe. welcome to the viewers in the u.s. european equities opening today after a strong hand over from wall street. strong trade in asia the gains building into the close after the ecb delivered a 50 basis point hike yesterday. the ecb throwing its confidence behind the banking sector saying

it is resilient and it is there in terms of liquidity. ultimately, investors did cheer the news that came through with the stability coming together in the banking sector credit suisse bouncing after dropping 30% in the session before swiss national bank coming to its rescue the gains are building this morning. stoxx 600 up 0.7% in the first minute of trade. fairly strong open let's break it down by sector and see what the split looks like and behind the rally in the benchmark. every sector in the green. utilities and food and drink and healthcare are the laggard if we move to the middle of the board, travel and leisure and chemicals and insurance in the middle of the pack and the banks in that basket in the euro banking index is

trading higher we saw the gains and losses swing yesterday. they rallied into the close and the banking index ended higher for the week overall, significantly lower. we have financial s and basic resources up 1.7%. and what the split looks like, we have seen broad based gains yesterday and a similar picture this mortgning ftse mib in italy up 1%. ftse mib has been the key under performer week to date 5% lower coming into today's session. it looks like we are waiting for the opening bid on the dax 1. 1.6% higher. cac 40 gained 2% yesterday that was the performer in the markets yesterday. let's look at banks in more

detail with the focus this week. it is green across the board french banks suffered steep losses this week they are catching the strongest bid this morning credit suisse is trading 2.9% higher today building on the bounce back from yesterday. firmly above two swiss francs a share. we have the floor under the stock with the help of the swiss national bank. turning to the u.s., the fed says the program is taking $12 billion in short-term loans. it offers one-year loans in exchange for collateral. here is the frankfurt listing of the u.s. names not a lot of movement in the early moments of trade and banks agreed to pull $30 billion to help rescue first republic bank.

wells fargo and jpmorgan chase and bank of america in the calls to help. what a lifeline those banks provided to first republic you have the frankfurt listing up 2%. on to credit suisse. shares closed higher after it will borrow $50 billion francs it sank into deeper territory as worries continue officials met with regulators and authorities to discuss what's next for the bank to help answer that question, geoff is joining us now from zurich geoff. >> reporter: thanks for that interesting to see the shares pop again here as we have seen some stabilization, i think, around banking concerns globally

with the first republic deal overnight. it is interesting to see how they close out the session rather than where they open and whether investors are still interested in holding on to the risk through the weekend as you rightly point out, julianna, i think in the short-term, the shares are telling the story about the restoration of short-term confidence, but it is the bond market that will have its say in terms of how viable the credit suisse business is going forward because inevitably this bank has experienced challenges over recent years and this will have done nothing to steady attitudes toward the organization and it is in a long-term restructuring program where at this stage there is no guaranteed target for when profitability will return to the business

the bank continues to say 2023 will be another loss making year for this program so, the smart money continues to be and you will read this at some point there will be a swiss solution here that would involve ubs and other swiss banks taking parts of credit suisse that is speculation in and off itself which doesn't help stop the money going out of the door. i think what will be increasingly critical here is what customer flow looks like through this quarter unfortunately, we won't see the hard data until the end of the first quarter in the back end of april for the earnings release here there will be a very close scrutiny on every comment made by the chair and ceo to get a sense of what the current business looks like here and whether customers are reassured at this point to stay with the

organization back to you. >> geoff, thank you so much for the analysis sticking with the banking sector, deutsche bank is raising the ceo's pay to 8.9 million euro the bank closed off the third straight year in the black deutsche bank expects group revenue levels to be higher despite the ecb continuing on the hiking path. that was until yesterday when the path forward is not clear. ben jones is joining us now at investech. ben, during the press conference, investors seem to be going back and forth of what to make for the decision of 50 basis points a lot of investors were critical of the decision. how can you go with the relatively jumbo rate hike with the turmoil in the banking sector and uncertainty and yet after the press conference, equities rallied into the close.

now this morning, equities continue to rally. was it the right move and what is your read on how markets are reacting >> good morning. after the week we had, it is one we will see green across the screens on st. patrick's day obviously the market has taken the news from the ecb positively i think the way the market is interpreting it is a sign of confidence if we think about the banking sector, it is all about confidence it is all about trust. i think what the ecb said yesterday is inflation is still very much a core problem and we still need to get rates higher they moved with the 50 basis point hike it is interesting in the comments afterwards that lagarde said there wasn't any other option on the table and relatively few members voted against that move. i think it was also very clear that they are taking this situation very seriously

they stand ready with measures if they are needed to put any liquidity into the system with the snb relative to credit suisse, of course. i'm not surprised to see the 50 basis point rise from the ecb. i suspect it was the right move. i think everyone has drawn parallels to 2007 and pre-failures and that hike into the prices think this is something slightly different. the banking sector is in a much better space than it was there i think ecb was trying to express that i think it was the right move and the market is reacting in the right way because inflation is still there and we still need further rate hikes to come through. >> you make such an interesting point about the ecb. the markets really saying if the ecb is happy with the state of the banking sector and market

turmoil and they are confident and they have access to the data and they have been having conversations with the key banks in europe, then why shouldn't we be confident taking this to the fed the question is if the fed shows a new cautiousness at its meeting next week, would that be taken badly by the market? cautiousness with the rate here? >> if you were to see a rate hike from the fed next week, which some are suggesting is a possibility, that will be taken as a negative. that will be a sign the fed doesn't have confidence. if we were sitting here ten days ago, the conversation would have been around will the fed go 25 or 50 basis points ten days ago, i was in the 50 basis point camp i reined that back to 25 points for next week. i think you still get a rate

hike coming through from the fed. i think they take the ecb lead on that. i think there are other measures that authorities can take to make sure that the confidence is still there and the banks stepping in with deposits or smaller counterparts over the 48 or 72 hours or so. measures are taking place. inflation is still very much a problem. i don't think any central bank around the world wants to back away from that so quickly. i think 25 basis points are in the cards for the fed next week. the comments around that is on the side of we have confidence in the sector. we are taking other measures to ensure liquidity is still in this area eof the market. >> ben, just to pick up on that, we had one banker on the program this morning talking about

concerns that the smes will still be able to get strong credit lines i know credit rationing is something that you are concerned about with regard to the banks can i ask if you can put a bit more color on this how worried should we be about a contraction in lending now from banks as they look at the treatment of other banks that have had problems so far and they put pressure on their lending officers to tighten up len lending conditions at this stage? how serious could the second round terms be in pushing economies closer to contraction? >> it is a really interesting question, isn't it that is what the fed wants to see. the reason the fed will be hiking rates is it wants to slow down the economy and wants to slow down the lending mechanism. by doing that, it takes the steam out of the economy and out

of the system. by tightening the lending and reducing the appetite to spend, that is what the fed wants to get to the risk is if it goes too far, too quickly. that is what we have seen. we have gone from an environment where 18 months ago you had a quarter of sovereign debt and negative yields on it. now you have a positive return of cash for the first time in many, many years that means your decisions around how you lend and invest change significantly over that period look, there will be things that will break there will be area where is the banks tighten up on the lending and people are talking to me on the commercial real estate space in the u.s obviously some of the tech sector given the banks struggled in the last week or so they are going to see some

reining back in lending. unfortunately, some of the areas are the sensitive areas of the market more broadly. you get a confluence of the factors, you set a sector that is sensitive and the banks are tightening up lending to that particular area as well. then i think that is when you see things start to break essentially. in the broad sense, slightly less lending and higher rates from the lending is kind of what the fed wants to see that is what will engineer the slowdown and engineer the inflation coming lower if you look at the back drop at the moment, the data that we are seeing recently shows inflation is still a problem in the system it is not just on the services sector yes, it is shelter inflation and airfare with the last inflation print. if you look below the surface and look at used car prices in the u.s. for example, they have been rising over the last three months

they are up 4.5% in february this clearly is lending into households by vehicles that is the stuff where you need to see some reining back further if you are serious about getting inflation down >> well, everybody on this channel and watching this channel understands that you either have yield or you have security you can't necessarily have both guaranteed what would you say is the best compromise at the moment in terms of asset classes that can deliver you a reasonable return without significant risk at this stage? >> yeah, excellent question. the question we are all reckoning with day in and day out. obviously, the directive of equities and i was cautious on the direction of equities prior to the banking issues that

started about ten days ago the problem is rates moving higher because of growth and inflation are sticky or we have rates coming down quickly because growth is coming down very quickly as well that middle goldilocks path is a narrow path and lower probability. any my outlook on equities is we see more downside from here. within the equity market is where the opportunity lies with relative value opportunities right now. i think they offer the most value. to the extent in europe, that means overweight in banking. similar with energy. companies that have very strong balance sheets and really good cash flow and distributing the cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybackbuybacks

in the current rate environment, you want more near-term flows over the growth we have seen that is where returns will be had. >> ben, you make great points. relative value to what you mentioned. i want to pick up on that. i hear what you are saying about the banks. the position risk at the moment given it is the volatile sector, it is dangerous. you could lose a lot of money on it or you could make a lot of money. similar in many ways for the oil market i hear what you are saying about the valuations i can see the free cash flow and they are throwing off vast amounts of cash. they are the derivative of the oil price. the oil price has fallen 10% this week. a dangerous sector to be involved in. >> it is i very much take your point on the position to other things relative to banks. certainly something i'm ko concerned about and i think that will be a lot of volatility in the space over the coming weeks as you highlighted in your lead

up to me coming on where you had days this week with banks at the bottom of the sector ranking and banks at the top of the sector ranking. we will get that level of volatility if you can take that longer-term view, the view that we take at our team, i think you have to ride that volatility if you look at the valuations, they are still very, very low and attractive the fundamentals are very strong strong buffers and they are much higher on prices rising rates are good for banks' earnings we have to ride that volatility. it will be painful it will be difficult i think we have to try and ride it similarly with the energy sector you are right on the day-to-day and week to week basis a very strong link with the oil price. if you look over longer term periods, there has been a disconnect with the direction of the oil price and overall

relative performance of energy companies. that said, with respect to oil, i have been surprised by what we have seen. we will see recovery in the oil price this year because you have a very tight supply side, i would argue. you are not getting huge spending in the shale patch in the u.s. are you are not getting big production from russia and movement of the oil from russia and around the world. against that, we have china reopening. the biggest demand is going to come in the oil demand because this year is jet fuel demand because people are traveling more particularly chinese travelers traveling internationally and domestically that is the positive story that comes from that. >> ben, geoff, there is

something interesting that just happ happened for the first time since june of 2022 the ad hoc, not emergency, ecb meeting. we can debate that the reason i mentioned, ben and geoff and julianna, the ecb has an ad hoc supervisory meeting for friday, today, to review banking sector after market turmoil according it a spokesperson we don't know anything more. i just got that flash. another ad hoc meeting last ad hoc meeting i could report was the 15th of june last year ben and geoff, chip in on this when you hear that, what do you think? >> it is interesting timing with the ecb meeting yesterday and since then, this will come across as generally okay the more positive side obviously we don't know what is

happening behind closed doors, of course. a vast number of banks and we have to wait and see what comes from that. the positive spin is that they are taking this very seriously we are probably likely to see some of the headlines pop up and that will contribute to the volatility at the moment, i would not speculate. i would say it is a surprise given the market moves and news that i've read over the last 24 hours post the ecb meeting >> ben, thank you very much. good to get your views ben jones. geoff, i don't want to overdramatize it every time we see an ad hoc meeting, there is a reason for the ad hoc meeting one can't help but start asking questions why they have an extra meeting today given european banks do not have a widespread

problem. geoff. >> reporter: absolutely, steve let's face it, we both got history on these ad hoc/emergency meeting conversations because often those who want to paint the best picture will play them down. we came out of yesterday and everybody watched the performance of madame lagarde at the conference and ecb meeting announcement i think a lot of people were pleasantly surprised there was nothing in the communication that caused confusion, shall we say, in the way that the market analyzed the statement that hasn't always been the case from the central bank meetings whether it is the ecb or the bank of england, of course this time around, it seemed to be clean 50 basis points. we have an eye on the banking situation. let's move on. we don't think there is a

problem. so we got the market rally we got the rebound we got the sigh of relief. we got the breath of confidence in equity market trade this, i'm not sure, necessarily helps here interestingly, there was a bank of japan announcement saying there would be a meeting there to talk about the banking markets and banking situation post what we have seen in the united states and with credit suisse we have been talking all morning about what the reality is of the medium-to-longer term risks for the banking sector i would not be surprised at all if this is taken as an opportunity here for the ecb to reflect on the robustness of various banks within the european context i mean, my goodness, they should have all learned their lesson from 2007 and 2008 it is only now we are seeing the

final resolutions concluded for some of the italian banks, of course i find it very hard to believe that there are, at this point, major banks that are in any sense exhibiting signs of distress in the eu context let's not forget we had mr. gindoss of the ecb 24 hours ago talking about how some banks in the eu could be vulnerable to rising interest rates. maybe they are just taking this as a moment to take stock on some of the challenges as you say, without further information, very hard to know what this means. as ben pointed out, it will add to the volatility. >> spot on we will see you for the headlines in six minutes thank you, geoff. just ahead, a date is set for the chinese president's

first trip to moscow since the start of the war in ukraine. we'll have more on this in just a minute it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you can have everything you need to streamline your shipping, returns, and product storage, so you can focus on growing your business. because when we work together, the future is bright. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions at finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term

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welcome back to "squawk box. baidu shares rebound after ernie bo it is tested the company stock slumped the day before with no public launch baidu has won a permit for a driverless ride share service. ten autonomous vehicles will be available in the government technology park. >> it did say auto mass. as opposed -- china's president xi jinping will travel to russia to meet with vladimir putin. the two leaders will discuss international issues over the visit. it is xi's first visit to moscow

since russia invaded ukraine last year. we will take a quick break the banking sector turmoil has a 25 point basis hike jfrom the fed. we will discuss that on the other side

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european equity markets closing off the week on the front foot so far as investors fears with the banking crisis ease oil markets on pace for its biggest one-day rise since november early on, it is a volatile session for credit suisse with the shares flat to lower right now. this after the extended $54 billion credit line from the swiss national bank and the u.s. banks coming together to provide $30 billion for first republic apparently, if you look at the early trade on credit suisse, still some nervousness in the market about this company's

business plan. investor attention turning to the federal reserve and the ecb is forming an ad hoc meeting to address the turmoil a day after hiking the rate by 50 basis points. >> we are monitoring the current market tensions closely and stand ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and financial stability in the euro area process in paris and francis emmanuel macron pushing through pension reform plan without a vote that has potentially opened himself up to a vote of no confidence for him and his government markets in europe have been

opened for a half hour and it is risk on. investors pile into stocks building on yesterday's gains. when we saw all of the regions and rally into the close and rally on wall street and rally overnight in asia setting the stage this morning stoxx 600 is the benchmark up 1% right now. 34 minutes into the trading session. breaking it down by sector here is the split. you see where the risk-on sentiment comes from oil and gas out performing 3.25%. incredible moves in the oil majors we are not seeing similar move in the underlining price of oil. curious with a strong bid. basic resources up 2.6%. banks up 1.9%. building on the gains from yesterday. the banks swinging throughout the session and rallying into the close. that positive momentum filtering through to today

the technology is 1.5% on the downside, household goods is flat on the session so far. food and beverage crossing into positive territory even those defensive baskets of stocks is performing well. now here is what you see is moving most. the energy names in front alongside the banking names with soc gen up 4%. the banks were hit hard in the selloff we saw this week the epicenter is credit suisse, but we did see the french bank selloff hard in lockstep still coming in week to date with the banks under pressure. positive homomentum is carrying them higher. here is a closer look at oil bp up 3% total up 3%.

strong gains across the sector at the banks, you saw soc gen and credit suisse is hovering around the flat line we are firmly above the two swiss francs level you have bnp in france up 2% commerz bank up 2% again, let me emphasize after the massive selloff earlier in the week they have a long way to go to regain the ground that was lost in the last trading session. steve. >> thank you for that. the slow central bank governor is an ecb policymaker kazimir has been making comments about rates. he said no need to speculate about the decision in may.

upside risk to inflation dominant we are not at the finishing line says petr kazimir. he adds the current levels on the financial markets do not change my view that we need to continue i'm very well aware of the delicate situation, but we are not at the finishing line. julianna. european central banks is ready to supply lenders with emergency liquidity if necessary. this as the bank stuck to the hiking path raising another 50 basis points yesterday and lifting the key deposit rate to 3% christine lagarde said the move was justified saying high inflation is the key concern and the bloc lender is well capitalized. price pressure is the risk >> we are not waning on the

commitment to fight inflation and we are determined to return inflation back to 2% target in the medium turn. that should not be doubted the determination is in tact and the path at which we will cover the ground and pace we will take will be entirely data dependent. that is what we have always said we are saying on this specific occasion that given the level of uncertainty that has been significantly increased as a result of the most recent financial tension and development given that level of uncertainty and it is better to make the decision that we believe is a robust discuecisio with 50 basis point increase and see what the data tell us and what next assessment we make on the basis of that data

the fed is expected to continue the rate hike path next week lifting the benchmark rate to 5.% range. investors will watch with for how the collapse of silicon valley bank and contagion in the sector wellill play on future policy the questions of how jay powell weighs inflation over the banking crisis the rout in banking stocks this week has seen revisions to the he can expectation of the fed hiking path after silicon valley bank collapse and issues with credit suisse markets were looking at a 50/50 chance the fed would keep the rates on hold. and now they anticipate 25 hike

>> joining us around set is head of global strategies is richard. what is your take on the read from the ecb decision yesterday to what we can expect from the fed next week? >> it is the template of what the fed wants to deliver an inflation issue and the tools to manage liquidity and you are driver deli delivering confidence. >> do you think there is a risk if the fed takes its foot off the gas with hiking rates and that could trigger a crisis of confidence in the market >> i don't think it would be helpful if we have more stability within the banking sector because you have been talking about this issue it does suggest you as the fed, as you go into the meeting, and priced for 25 points, that means you are pessimistic than the

market now the market needs to mark to what you think it would be an issue >> the markets are still doing fairly well. good morning to you, by the way. the s&p 500 is a whisper away. wafer thin move from 4,000 that is nowhere near the 3,300 that the realists say the s&p has to get to for decent value way before the banking concern this week as well. what do you think? >> if you look at where we are with credit markets, you have not seen the amount of financial tightening that i would have expected from what happened this week you have a freeze over the course of the market nothing has happened this week if we injected this much liquidity and we move forward and thaw and get the hiking to go through, my gut says banks will be cautious and pay more for deposits and reduce lending to help the fed tightening for

it what i see in the markets to your point is not as apocalyptic as we feel we are. >> the fed has $318 billion in loans outstanding to the financial system nowhere near as much in the financial crisis a large amount of money out there as well. given the liquidity support that is implicit on the back of what we have seen this week, that is inflationary i.e., could it complicate the fed task in the opposite direction? 25 or nothing now. all of that extra liquidity coming to the table. doesn't that create inflation? >> the largest use of the discount window. a lot of liquidity going in. if you want to use the qe and qt, this was qe. we unwound five weeks of tightening with the amount of liquidity. this should be temporary funding. it is similar to the ecb

this is something the fed and ecb has never had. there has been a voluntary way to grow the balance sleets or the -- balance sheets or the ecb is using qe. they are growing that balance sheet. if this goes away, we go back to qt >> you look at it and take a step back. the banks without collusion from the federal reserve and has chucked money to the banks the shorts will be hunting you multiply that and we have seriously large numbers as well. i hear what you are saying very much this could be a whack-a-mole situation credit suisse in europe and

silicon valley bank. >> that is the uncertainty everything we see is a classic confidence crisis. a bank run no complex derivatives that we are talking about. no bad debt. no holes to fill this is the market has suddenly lost confidence. depositors particularly. depositors have lost confidence in the banks this is a question how do you restore the confidence it will take time so no one can push around the weak banks if the confidence comes back and you think about jobs if you are living paycheck to paycheck and you have a job, you can keep paying your bills there are some banks because how they managed their risk are close to a household living paycheck to paycheck >> it seems this took many by surprise the collapse of silicon valley bank and interest rate risk

presid problem. it took the market overall, by storm. what are the other risks we need to be aware of where could the next problem turn up? >> i think we all have to admit there is a mess of amount of humility here. you don't know what is on every bank's balance sheet it seems like it is more likely smaller regional banks are you looking in europe and seeing if there are other spillovers if you are not seeing that acceleration, now we need to take the sober second look of how much more conservative our banks going to be going forward? how much tightening will they do that is the biggest question >> really interesting stuff. richard, thank you for joining us richard kelly at td securities. coming up on "squawk box"

emmanuel macron's gamble as he pushes through his pension reform we'll discuss more next.

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that was the scene in french

parliament where they sang the national anthem and walked out the prime minister borne says they will force the bill through without vote sparking protests across the country >> invoking article 49.3 for you non french speakers of the french constitution enables macron's government to implement the flagship policy and gives the opposition to call an immediate vote of no confidence. piling further uncertainty after the protests seen in months. there are a number of governments which tried to change pensions and sarkozy tr tried and failed. >> i mentioned this is the hot

potato of french government. it has been used 100 times since 1958 it is not exceptional that the government uses it, but the government wanted to have the vote through the national assembly to have this credibility that goes without word because they knew how contention it would be this is a new phase in the tension. you have seen the debates in the national assembly after the past few weeks. introduction in january after prime minister borne to raise the pension age from 62 to 64. the strikes have been peaceful up until now the unions are on the same page. having controlling the social movement tightening. there was no unrest until last night when the government is getting this through without vote across the country as well with

the protests where do we go now one, there will be more strikes on thursday. all of the unions called for the movement this is a feeling this is a new phase. it isone thing with strikes with the debate on the table now strikes after it potentially had become a law it changes the mood on how the protests could be. also, this means it will be a vote of no confidence from the government there could be two more presented today that would be voted on monday. a majority needs to vote in favor of it and if so, the government would enforce not the position of the president macron, but the prime minister the center right mps don't want to add chaos to the chaos. they will not support this vote. however, where the mps and

government is hoping to have on board to pass pension reform and they did not have the votes. they were three or four votes shorts it is unlikely if the mps will follow suit and would want to give this victory to macron. >> how does this affect viewers listening? i'm fascinated by french politics, really in terms of how it affects viewers and portfolios and french assets. the french market cac 40 is off the recents s -- recent highs. this is obvious in what will happen in the markets on the back of this >> the french public finances have been taking a hit one of the things the victories of the emmanuel macron mandate was bringing down the deficit and that 3% of gdp since then, the pandemic and

unseen inflation measureses which has ballooned to 110% to gdp. they want to show the reformist government and careful with public finances and there were reports that macron saidto majority yesterday that he was concerned about the potential financial impact and perception on the market. they are still serious about it and they reach 12 billion euro in 2027. they are ready to tackle it. if this gets bigger, this has an impact on gdp. they want to control the situation. the question is how this can go in the next few weeks or days. you have today with the real world paris with blockades >> will we notice a difference >> a couple of blockades this

morning. >> i normally stop it. >> the spontaneous movement and unrest planned in the next few days >> that is implied we don't normally have that m-25 is just as bad. lovely amazing story. thank you very much. let's get a check of european equity markets. an hour into the final trading session of the week to say the least which has been turbulent we have more green this morning after yesterday's strong close the european market rallied into the close yesterday after the ecb delivered the 50 basis point hike which investors is taking a sign of confidence looking at credit suisse specifically the stock down 3.3%. below the two swiss francs share level. we opened higher

the stock rallied yesterday. >> thanks for your help. have you enjoyed it. >> yes thanks for having me >> that's it for "squawk box." "worldwide exchange" will pick up the baton next. have a great weekend, everybody. i'll see you on monday idea she' a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. another day and another rescue how the banks are shoring up support for the financial system. the banking global crisis is not doing anything for main street despite that volatility, stocks are track to end the week on a high note with tech in a commanding lead. another sign of resilient u.s. economy why shares o