administration may not want want to face. >> eamon, thanks he has a long afternoon ahead, anchoring the "taking stock" special tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time don't miss it. what a week it has been. what a week ahead. get some rest. you will need it in the weeks and months to come, i think. >> absolutely. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. have a good weekend. >> "closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner we're live at the new york stock exchange this. make or break hour begins with the stock sell involve, picking up some steam, returning down to the lose of the morning in the s&p 500. as investors continue stressing out over the banks ank despite surrounding financial stability, pressing bank stocks further, tracking down the broader s&p 500, which is trying to hang on to a small gain for the week. and this is our talk of the tape what does this all mean for the economy, the fed, ahead of next week ease rate hike decision let's talk about all of that, we are going to bring in dan

greenhouse and how you should be positioning ahead of it as well. dan greenhouse is chief investment strategist at solis alternative alternate management this is one of those fridays, a crisis period, the fog of war, you can't disprove the idea that there are other shoes to drop in the banking system but you don't know for certain that that's going to happen. what's your read on the week's action in the context of what has had to occur with the banks. >> i don't know that you can read too much into it. there's a lot of conversations about cyclicals outperforms and how gold is doing and i think to your comment about this thing in the midst of the fog of war, i think it is really hard to make any consequential decisions right now, since, to your point, we don't know when the next shoe will drop. if the next shoe will drop and i would be hesitant to read too much into just about everything right now. >> the broad outlines of the way the markets are behaving is, it seems as if again, where we're bracing for the recession

playbook to kick in, in a sense. oil cracking even though you said don't read too much into what the market is saying 2-year note plunging market on the surface anticipate can the need for fed rate hikes in future months you can go down the line leading economic indicators. >> let me amend what i just said i was talking about positioning within the market. this is going up, and this is going down, unambiguously, the message being sent by the treasury market, the oil market, is that there's a recession coming to be clear, the outcome of this debate, and the regional banking sector, irrespective if you have one view or another about how it started, who started it, and all of that, you're talking about lower net interest margins, probably a curtailment of loan activity, lower valuations, blah-blah-blah, but on the decreased loan activity, that's going to do some of the fed's work for it, over the next six to 12 months, because if you're a bank and you need to shore up your balance sheet, there's a couple of ways to do it, one of which is make a few less loans

and i think that's probably what is going to happen. >> you know, on one level, doing some fed's work for it is not the worst thing in the world, unless it goes too far and all of a sudden we're in contraction mode so how do you try to assess those probabilities? >> regional banks have about 40% of the country's deposits and 50% of the lending and whether they lend here or there or more is beside the point a lot of the lending activity is done at the regional banking level i know everybody is talking about who is exposed to commercial real estate and where attention is going to turn in terms of how to gauge this, i mean you can do -- i have not done it myself, but you can do economic analysis, to say the level of curtailment of loan activity we think will lead to a couple of tenths of economic activity contraction over the next couple of quarters. i think that is likely the case. admittedly everything is a couple of tenths part of economic activity. it is tough to move it >> it is a big economy.

>> i think goingforward, that should be your expectation and to the point about the treasury market and oil, i've been on here, a number of people have, talking about the likelihood of a recession. should. >> sure. >> i find it shocking that people are shocked that the fed would hike by 500 bhaps in a year and something would break this is amazing to me. >> maybe not that shocked because we are kind of holding in here on some levels you mentioned the fed equation it's unusual five days out from a fed decision to have this much suspense what they're going do and say afterwards we've spoken to a bunch of guests this week on that let's bring in some of the comments of what people say maybe the fed should do. >> at this point, the fed is not going to go 50 i would think 25 and i know people are wondering if they will go up at all. i just think to save the program, and their credibility, will probably raise rates 25 basis points. >> i think powell really has to raise interest rates sooner or

later. i can't talk about next week or even next month, but inflation is the worst thing an economy can have, and i think people underrate that. >> i think what's going to happen is they are going to do 25 but the message is going to be a likely pause. they won't commit it but i think the language is going to be totally different from the language we had after the last meeting. >> what's your take? >> so let's me say the next time you show that graphic, it should be siegel, icahn and greenhouse, obviously. >> it's monday. >> we'll do it. >> please. >> so i think that, listen, nobody knows for sure, obviously, my gut is that they're going to do 25, my feeling is they should do zero there's enough stress right now that you have to trend very gingerly, and that's not to say that inflation is not a problem, and the other stuff that happened before last week isn't still a problem, but you have

another meeting in one month, and i don't think there's any harm, given everything going on, in saying hey, we're going to take the month off, not because inflation is not a problem and not because we think our job is done but we want to make sure, even though we don't think, but we want to make sure we're not causing more stresses, that we don't think this is a one-off or a two-off, and i think the market would probably give them a pass and understand, that said, if they hike by 25, i think you are just making equally appropriate opposite argument. >> it is six weeks between but that is splitting hairs. let's see. we'll bring in kristen bitterly, how do you boil this together, in terms of what an investor ought to be thinking about with regard to the fed, how much it matters what they do and what they say >> so i'm in agreement that in terms of what the fed, there's a difference between what the fed is going to do and what they should do. what they're going to, we're in the camp that they will do 25 beyance, that they will stay the course, our outlook for 2023 was not to fight the fed that the idea of the cumulative

tightening was going to have an impact on corporate earnings, we're calling for a 10% earnings contraction and see it in the economy, and i think we're seeing it in very idiosyncratic fashion and everyone trying to explain it away as if it is idiosyncratic but the truth is it throws through to the economy and the corporations and the consumer >> what does the don't fight the fed maxim have to say about the moment when the fed has convincingly backstopped the financial system and then stopped raising rates? are we still not fighting what the fed has done over the last year or is it time to get a little more aggressive and cyclical >> i think the interesting discussion that's happening right now is about the fed's mandate and this whole debate around price stability and financial stability, and this idea that you could separate out the two. we heard that oust ecb yesterday. and lagarde's comments about the 50 basis point hike and the need to separate the two. i don't see how that's possible. i think the tools that you're

using to basically address one of them is going to address the other, and so here is the truth of it, if the fed is actually changing course, to address financial stability, obviously that's not good for growth, and obviously all of the action we've seen and activity ask something that will take liquidity out of the system, and lending is very tight, it's very restrictive and still, regardless of what happens from here on out is going to continue. >> yes >> and let me add, the conversation all week on the network has been should they do 25, 50, 0. i haven't seen much conversation about the quantitative tightening, so-called, side effect, which is a much more difficult conversation because not what just happened with the balance sheet, it was qe, it was not - >> in terms of discount, borrowing, balance sheet expansion. >> the fed is going to be hard-pressed to argue that it should continue engaging in quantitative tightening, draining liquidity from the system, a system that appears to

be increasingly starved of liquidity, so whether they continue to hike rates aside, i think the immediate question is what happens on the qt side of things. >> when they come down to deciding what factors matter most, it is partially about are they going to try to look ahead to what, you know, the early indications of whether it's a calming down of inflation expectations, the university of michigan sentiment survey today, that is something that they used as bludgeon on the markets last year when it was way higher, things like a little bit of a trickle higher, in some, you know, softening of the labor market, things like that, whether they're going look past it, after they spent the last year, kristen, saying we're going to wait for the actual inflation numbers to come into line before we change policy. >> this is the challenge all along, right this idea that the fed's mandate is one that is based on lagging indicators so they're looking at inflation. they're looking at employment. when you look at leading indicator, the past couple of months, think about how the market is trying to hold on to flair tives. january was the nation tive

around disinflationary forces and wage growth declining, and when you look at i leading indicators it is telling it is medicine that is indeed work and contraction forces at play whether they switch from here on out, i don't know. it will be seen next week for so. >> the narrative of this week in part is all of the scary stuff going on, and you can kind of hide from it, in huge growth stocks now, that can go only so fafrmt but that's what's been happening right now. kristen, you're kind of recommending for a while sort of a quality bias in equities and fixed income. >> yes. >> you look at the quality screens and it hooks like the top of the nasdaq sometimes. how do you treat that? >> i think the price action that happened this week, i think at first, you have that knee jerk reaction when rates come down, obviously tech gets a bid. i think the other thing is everyone is pointing to the relative outperformance of the nasdaq versus the s&p 500 and the nasdaq doesn't have

financial stocks in it to go aggressive in risk assets, this tightening is a higher cost of capital and impact all companies and the companies best prepared to be able to withstand that are the ones that have their balance sheet in order and the ones that have strong leadership and can consistently grow their earnings, and contracting conditions or recessionary conditions, so yes, there can be some mega cap stocks in there that are doing that from a tech perspective but it's not a broad brush. >> let me add, it's not just the big tech name, who as mittedly have earnings growth rates, balance sheets that are phenomenal in relation to the rest of the universe, but semiconductors have had a good week, the software names have had a good week. amazon, which is not exactly in the same category. >> we're talking different flavors of tech here, but exactly. >> there is this idea that those big five have been -- i would say it's broader than that. >> somewhat. >> in the investment, in the information technology space >> yes. >> but again, the point -- >> it is everything from another sector that looks like growth tech

life sciences, a leading stock market access, a digital bond exchange you know what i mean it is going back to that playbook, companies that don't need to borrow and generate cash. >> i would agree and if you argue we are closer to a recession than we were a week ago, then you will retaterotatet the bigger stronger balance sheet, which are the big five tech names zbloops kristen, what are your clients doing principally at this moment there was talk, look, there is no penalties in hiding in short-term bond ors in cash or anything like that, in the last week, as people have some kind of a trigger to maybe re-think some things. >> i would say the demand for bonds and the demand for essentially cash and cash equivalents, 6-month t-bill, look at that seismic action on the rate side, we were at 5.30 eight days ago, two weeks ago. and so we have seen a really, really strong bid for treasuries we've also seen just for

investment grade corporates, more broadly so hanging out in quality, but basically saying a little short in duration, and taking advantage of flight to quality quite honestly. >> does the broader credit space seem like it's got a correct fix on what could be the lag effects kicking in i mean for a long time, credit spreads looked okay. we didn't have to worry about that it wasn't setting up too many alarms and you know, here we are, with having a little bit of a panic about the growth picture. >> i don't think the credit market still is telling you anything that the equity market isn't. obviously there has been a re-pricing, credit spreads in both ig and high yield had come prelgsed to not the low -- come prelsed not to the lowest, but sub-100 is exceedingly tight 160, 170 a similar type move in high yield. but in the credit space, i don't think it is telling you anything that the market hasn't the issue for the credit space is really coming in the next 12 to 24 months as refinancing risk

starts to increase because one of the benefits of the covid from a corporate balance sheet standpoint is everyone turned out their debt and what we call a ma future wall in the credit space looks like a bell curve but further out than it normally is. so companies will start running into the efinancing issue if rates have to start at these level, starting really the second half of this year, if not early next year. >> kristen, has anything a changed about the relative attractiveness of nonu.s. markets in all of this >> in our portfolio, one of the things we did do is add our teen exposure the last couple of weeks. this is a position where we added european exposure. >> european banks? >> not european banks. we're looking at the same type of companies that exist if europe that i just went through. the dividend growers the quality companies that have been able to consistently grow with their earningser, their dividends, and i mean the interesting thing about the european economy is it was heavily influenced by the china reopening. and that trillion of excess

savings in china was going to, and we saw this, we saw european luxury companies, consumer discretionary, so a lot of those multi-national, global companies, still have a very, very valid placewithin portfolios, and are defense nive nature. >> kristen, dan, appreciate it thanks very much. >> thank you. let's get to our twitter question of the day. we're asking are stocks heading back to the october lows head to @cbs closing bell to vote it is about a 10 to 11% drop to be the lows from here. up next, a look at the state of the consumer as high in sensation weighs on sentiment and bank turbulence adding to the woes we will look. and as we head to the close for the week, the dow down 1 1/4%, and the s&p down just above the 3,900 mark and the nasdaq still outpouring but lower and the russell 2000 the weak point all week, down

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. welcome back 41 mijs nutes left in the tradi day. s&p 500 down 1%. it spent most of the day around that nasdaq composite down 0.7% christina has more for us on that christina? >> i've got two stocks to talk about, over the financial system, sending investors back into crypto this week oons and this is good for coinbase, which is up over 12% today and up 42% just week to dates

it is tracking the best since january. but it is also worth noting, the stock is still 60% below its most recent high and then we know the concerns about the global economic growth have put industrials also under pressure united rentals is the biggest buyer, on pace fort worst week since june the airlines have been hit hard, along with names like parker hannifin and caterpillar. >> a lot of charts look like that chart >> reframe. >> zoom out. >> yes talk to you soon. this week's bank turmoil is not helping consumers to say the least. the next guest says pockets remain we have the neuberger berman's connected zplumer. good to have you here, john. broadly speaking, how are you thinking about consumers here? you simply have a split opinion here, we have excess savings,

wage growth is pretty good, inflation has peaked, on the other hand you see some strains in the household balance sheet >> yes, thanks, great to see you. i think you set that up well but a lot of the good guys are getting -- so we had this really flush consumer balance sheet the last couple of years, and those savings levels, the excess savings have largely depleted, inflation is coming down, but it's still, you know, too hot for the consumer to feel particularly good, and you're seeing that in the consumer confidence data. when you layer on top of that some of the bank-related headlines we've seen this week, they certainly -- that certainly didn't help. i mean we've seen it under depositors we've seen it under capital markets. and certainly not going to have a good positive impact on the consumers degree of confidence and the next thing to look out for is whether that drives some credit tightness, and difficulty accessing credit for the consumer that is one more headache to potentially worry about. >> and on top of all of that, of

course you had the shift toward spending on services over goods which is pressuring some of retail let me get to where you go in that environment in terms of stocks that you actually like. dollar tree is one what's, i guess, maybe the macro and micro story here >> sure, sure. well, to your point, we think that wallet share shift is probably coming to its end we're in more of a steady state environment, as far as consumers spend between services and between goods, but to dollar tree, we think they're positioned perfectly for this environment. our thesis there really starts with a new management team, the new team has already won the dollar store turn-around playbook with tremendous success at dollar general. a decade ago and one of the first changes that they made when they came in is they change the the pricing architecture, both the family dollar banner as well as the dollar tree banner they operate. and we're seeing in the data that we track, the good news is responding quite well. new customers are coming in.

better customers are coming in they're behaving more loyally. so we think we'll hear, they will have a june investor day in june and we think we'll hear how this translates to faster store growth in the years ahead and much higher margins over the years to come. >> all right and do want to get your take on walmart here is is just purely defensive and the move towards staples are things happen can at the company that are also interesting? >> yeah, it's certainly in the right place at the right time, so i think the question is fair. i also think they have some idiosyncratic self help. and the way i look at it, they operated at an extraordinarily high level the last couple of quarters and they built so little of that momentum into their 2023 guidance. we think one of two things must be true. either that guidance, and the expectations, are way too conservative, or the rest of retail perhaps is in really big trouble. either way, both of those are

scenarios where you want to own a big defensive name like walmart, and we're seeing in the data we track, again, very similar to dollar tree, they're bringing in a more affluent consumer, who is putting together big baskets that really engage with them in multiple channels and we think all of these things auger well for them continuing to take market share. >> you know, it's been common to say that luxury could be insulated. even to the fact that, you know, higher interest rates kind of flow toward people who own a lot of bonds it sounds crazy but it seems as if that is a resilient area of the market is that remaining true if you see this banking stress take front and center >> sure, we have seen the resilient consumer cohorts are to fall down like dom nose first a very low end, ran oust excess savings and started to behave differently in the ways that you might expect and then kind of that second quartile of income cohorts, they started to

shift their behaviors when gas prices really surged and then starting to see some of those more distressed behaviors lead up. now, i think the customer that brands like montclair or lbmh, companies like that are selling to these customers, these customers are in most cases so exception natalie insulated and we dig into to the brands that are selling to a very well-positioned consumer who is not feeling to much pain right now. montclair is a name we own in our portfolio that fits that description quite well. >> john, appreciate it thanks for running through it all with us. >> thank you >> john san marco. when we return, tech is a bright spot among the market carnage this week. will the run continue? "closing bell" is back in two. "closing bell" is back in two. the dow is down 372.ngful.

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big tech back in the spotlight for investors this week, as the nasdaq 100 has been outperforming the s&p for the past 12 trading session, the longest such streak since july of 2017. our next guest says the charts are signaling improving trends the chairman of ren sass macro research jeff, great to see you looking to get just your broader take on the week's action. we managed to find a little traction each day. it hasn't really spilled in a kind of messy way, given the banking stress do we take heart in that or does it seem fragile? >> you call it traction? i guess. >> each day, i said. zbho >> yeah, you know, you're right, you're absolutely right. i think if anything, i've been most impressed that the market has held up fairly well. we're big believers when we're in the uptrend of the 65-day low, that level is around 3765 we've been able to hold that you know, obviously, this's been pockets of weakness in the

market, but really, i've been more encouraged by the pockets of strength and what we're seeing, and one of those as you alluded to being tech, and semiconductors have been strong now for about two months, they've been the leadership component of tech, and they have a high degree of cyclicality, they continue to look really, really good. and now you're sort of bringing along software now you're bringing along some of the services names. i get it because they're a little more high quality and a little less economic dependent than obviously, not semiconductors but then some of the other areas but i think there's signs of improvement there. and importantly, from us, they do fall into that cyclicality bucket and so they're right there with industrials, right there with consumer discretionary so i'm, call me encouraged, it's not an a-plus, but certainly more encouraging than that in my book. >> how does the recent relative performance surge in some of the real big cap nasdaq name, the old favorite types, the

microsofts, fit with the general stance that says, you know what, once you have a bear market, the prior bull market leaders are not really going to be the leaders of the next up phase is this just kind of a sort of a short-term move, and mean reversion, or do we think that the text is changing a little bit? >> i think they're probably just marginally above market performance and when you get down to it, and you start looking at beta adjusted, i don't know if they will provide a lot more than what the market is with just the bate. but at the same time, keep in mind, energy was leadership. so it's not necessarily the sequential leadership. >> yes. >> tech is about two, you know, removed from being leadership. so i think there's pockets i don't think we will go back to pick any tech stock and it is going to outperform. i think there is going to be winners and losers that's not that unusual after

you have these big deflationary events for those names so i think we're in the se selectivity phase and you're seeing it in cadence design, synopsis, adm averaged the like. so stick with that relative high list and that will guide you to whose leadership, whose got the proper businesses that are going to thrive in the next cycle. >> i know you mean amd rather than archer daniels -- >> thank you very much, yes. >> and in looking at things like the banks, obviously just really disorderly, liquidation-type stuff going on and you can't really handicap the scenarios, what would you look for that is so bad that maybe it will be good because it is all washed out type of a moment >> for banks specifically? >> yes. >> it is so hard, because there's so much leverage involved there is such a unique industry group. they're such a unique sector you know, really, as a technician, it is hard for me to say but it does come down to the

fundamental difference between sound businesses and unsound businesses but even there, i mean, you know, you get a bank run or you get some whispers out there, and even the strongest, most stalwart can start to look pretty shaky we look for deep, deep oversold conditions clearly, we've had that. and we just look for the baby with the bath water. that's 52-week lows. that's nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. and those provide bounces. but keep in mind that the relative performance of banks, you know, particularly the regionals, started to turn on a relative basis, on an equal weight relative basis at the beginning of the year. they weren't signaling we would have this kind of calamity but they were signaling they were substantially weaker than the market and until you really sort of clear the decks on that, we just step aside and let it play itself out and see what happens. but mostly because there is so much leverage involved, and ex-lehman alone, you know, there is so much leverage involved,

you have to be careful with these things, because they are very unique situations >> for sure. it's very good color jeff, appreciate it. thanks very much. >> have a good weekend. >> take care. let's get over to kristina with a look at what is coming up next. >> with a more constrained financial market where does that leave lofty ipo valuations and unprofitable public tech firms we'll discuss after the break.

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the fallout from svb's collapse is causing a cash crunch in the financial system which could possibly lead to a wave of m&a activity across the tech sector. kristina partsinevelos joins us now with that story. >> there is a desperation right now for cash among smaller tech firms now that they're dealing with a constrained financial environment post the svb fallout. that could mean more snare yose. the first one, more m&a activity think smaller tech firms and think of the public ones, they rely on small to medium sized businesses for their products so if customers are cutting back, it doesn't bode well for the bottom line. gitlab for example, the cost cuts is hurting their ability to expand and you can see the stock

plunged on monday. software contributed to 16% of the outstanding leverage loan market more than any other sub sector that means credit tightening may prompt a re-think of the current market caps if public and valuations if private. all while the cash balances of s&p 500 companies remain high. you know, this is only so much you can do with dividends and buy backs, making it an opportune time to snap up smaller players. wedbush thinks the weakness will spur an 20% uptick in m&a technology and ipos coming to market quicker but expect ipo valuations to coming down in the era one, stripe is down by half from the peak of 95 billion two years ago and investors would probably shun the ipo's credible path to profit ability. >> that's likely although i will say from past

cycles when things were very tough in the markets and you had companies that were going public because they had to, not because they want to, it can mean it's actual lay good deal for investors. with your as a lot of ipos, when they come out too expensive are bad deals. who knows. we just need one to break the wise >> that's exactly it so you're looking at the positive side for investors. also, positive for maybe some of these larger tech, or medium-sized, i don't have to focus on large-tech firms, that want to buy some startup, late stage start ups that choose not to go public and maybe the valuations will come down and then go public and a guy will come in and snap it up and bring things down to reality and all of us could benefit if we get in earl >> i and the strong as often happens get stronger. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. last check to weigh in on the twitter segment. are stocks headed back to the october lows @cnbc closing bell on twitter.

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let's get the results of our twitter question we asked, are stocks headed back to the october lows? there it is. a majority, 57% of you said yes. that would mean as i mentioned more than a 10% drop from here. up next, one bright spot in a down take. this stock is looking to close out the week with big gains. we'll tell you what it is and break down if it has more room atun th and much more when we take th and much more when we take you inside the "market zone.rist

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we're now at the closing bell market zone we have more on the crucial moments on the trading day tracy is here on nvidia's big movement this week and piper sandler, on the latest selloff in the banks welcome to you really eventful week, to say the least. i think really, one of the standout features of this is the intensity of the volatility. perhaps particularly in bonds. and relatedly, in bank stocks, which if nothing else, suggests that people were wrong-footed coming in to and/or i guess the range of possibilities for what could break from here is pretty extreme. to say the least

>> absolutely, mike. i didn't think anything could outshine the volatility we've seen in stocks like you first republic, some of these other regional banks but the move in the bond market has been eye-popping and that's what traders have been talking to me about all week long. the 2-year treasury yield has long been the biggest decline since 1987 i think that tells you everything you need to know about just the amount of uncertainty out this how people are positioning for the fed next week. and over the next few months, and just how much the world and the economy has changed in one week alone >> you know, i was seeing some reporting on these statistical models that suggest how markets ought to trade, and what moves represent a true extreme, and the 2-year treasury yield moves this week, by the models, should not happen except once every 50 million years, so it probably tells you something is wrong about the models as well as telling you just exactly how

wild the moves have been and when we have this type of action, i think the instinct is to wonder just who ended up on the wrong side of it, just what sorts of investors, whether we're going to see losses surface in one category style of hemg fund, or something like that. >> that's right, mike. and i think a lot of the traders who were caught wrong-footed and believe me, many were, a lot of traders were very, very bearish, heading into this week's move, a lot of them were computer-driven funds, quant funds, ctas, who had bet against treasuries, heading into this year, and i want to say, who can blame them? thinks about the messaging that we've gotten from the fed in terms of further interest rate hikes. and a lot of people were positioned for that. so we're often hearing ask that the huge move in the two-year ten-year, the types of moves we have not seen in decades, they were driven of course by night to safety, that benefitted gold as well but also, this really

wrong-footed positioning, as well as poor liquidity in the markets, and all of these different forces were kind of coming together to help drive this incredibly violent move in the bond market. >> yeah, the really patchy liquidity has absolutely been very evident here, too and i know some of the tracking of a lot of the retrail trading flows as well. we have an options expiration, a quarterly one, index rebalancing, things like, that but we've seen yet again a rekindling of some excitement in some of the biggest names of the nasdaq let's say you've seen the runs in individual, and in microsoft, and that muscle memory seems to have kicked in again >> i think muscle memory is exactly the right term i mean it's so reflexive any time you have low or a yield, it seems like the nasdaq moves in tandem and it is remarkable to see that outperformance, it is up 4, 5%, and it reminds me of 2020, when tech kind of became the safe

haven. it was like everything is dropping, let me buy apple and nvidia and that seems to be on display here i think one thing to watch out for is, when i speak with individual investors, when i speak with some of these retail brokerages, it does seem like there's some fatigue in terms of buying the dip you know, last year we saw people pile in, during some of that volatility, and i have been hearing that people are just getting tired of doing that. and i think especially weeks like this, make it tougher to justify sometimes, just because there is so much uncertainty ahead. >> absolutely. we're basically more than two weeks past the actual speculative peak, in a lot of those areas in the market, february of 2021 great to speak with you. thanks very much. >> thank you >> take care. we want to get to stacey on the chips. as we've been talking about, a bright spot here, not just necessarily perhaps as a shelter from the macroeconomic storm, but because i guess there is

growing confidence that perhaps earnings estimates have finally bottomed, and some of the longer term trends have kicked back in. what's your read >> yes, so semis in general have been pretty strong year to date. the sector is up well over 20% versus single digits for the s&p 500 and the estimates for the sector peaked in june. down a third since then. one of the negative revision sectors since the financial crisis this. are some end markets pcs, cell phones, graphics cards, where you can get some confidence that we're now undershipping demand after many, many quarters of overshipping, and you can get some comfort, as people have been buying the group broadly on that kind of bottoming, with a second half recovery nvidia has been something special. nvidia is up almost 80% year to date some of the reason is the same thing. they had a pretty awful year last year, as the crypto bubble burst and graphics cards

plummeted and all of that, we're through all of that, and we're at two product cycles, and both should drive pretty good growth for the year so that's a positive now, on top of that, people are beginning to get really excited finalbly artificial intelligence and generative ai, and chat gpt and nvidia is probably the purest way to play that theme and that has been driving a lot of demand i think for the shares and it is really supporting it, it is that narrative, it has been playing out over the last, especially over the last couple of months, as this has really sort of struck the public. >> sure. i mean i know you've actually, you know, been supportive of nvidia, but i just wonder at what point do you say look, it's kind of overdone in the short term or maybe you have to down play your expectations and we've traded higher than this with nvidia, except for a few months around the nasdaq peak. >> nvidia is expensive the day it was launched in 2017 or something, it was 45 times

earnings, and if it wasn't expensive, it was incredibly cheap, and the downplay was long, it was always orders of magnitude. but the thing with nvidia, you will have near-term volatility like in any near-term horizon, it can be anything but in the long term, it is kind of open-ended if you want to believe, you know, it is accelerated computing and ai, we're very early and they're in the pole position and the penetration is really low, there is a whole software story that is playing out there 's a new cloud story that we're going to hear about next week. they have the event on tuesday we will hear more about that it is not hard, if you want to dream the dream, it is not hard to dream, in some sense it is open-ended it can be as big as you want and i have pretty strong confidence, looking out five years, it will be a lot bigger than it is today over five days, who knows. but i think that long-term story looks really, really good. >> without a doubt the market loves when you can dream the big dream and don't

have to worry about the banks and retail sales and all the rest of it s stacy, appreciate it catch up with you soon scott, super dramatic action in the banks. some with existential questions around them and others are worried, investors are worried about their longer term profitability. are you seeing opportunities or is it just time to stay out of way >> the market is still obviously pretty jittery i think that goes without saying i think the broad reality is that most banks will end up getting through this okay. but this are going to be some longer-term ramifications once the dust settles, and there will be serious ones, i don't want to minimize that it looks like the largest banks will probably come out looking the best simply because the market has sort of concluded they're too big for, you know, the government to allow them to fachlt they must be the safest places to have money so if anything, those types of largest banks will probably see inflows of deposits, ideally

customers that stick around once the dust settles for the smarter end of the range, for the most part it is business as usual. they'll be impacted but sort of only tangentially. it is that sort of 50 to 250 billion, or 100 to 250 billion in assets, that bank that looks like it will get more squeezed in terms of profit ability longer term and there will take a few forms, it will mean higher deposit costs as people get serious about the funding and the value of it and i think those banks will pare back their appetite to lend as they create capital and you will probably see share repurchase start to get pulled back a little, again, as these companies build capital. there will be a heavy regulatory infrastructure as well and then, you know, presumably, whatever downturn we were going to have, maybe gets a little harder, if banks are more reticent to extend credit. so there will be some ramifications but i think we will be okay longer term. >> if most are going to survive,

as you say, which of course is the case, by definition, there's been a lot of playbooks out there in terms of which ones to look for, whether percentage of uninsured deposits or just the diversity of the deposit, maybe ex posure to commercial estate, things like that, are there any rules of nthumb saying these stocks have been punished too much >> jpmorgan is excellent liquidity, excellent capital, excellent management and overall risk profile they will do extraordinarily well in the retail space, citizen's financial, here in the northeast, a name we like. very good capital structure. they've got a really good granular and diversified deposit base as well so you know, good liquidity and i think they've got a good risk profile. similarly to go out to the midwest and a name like fifth third down in cincinnati, really good capital profile, good risk management, really well managed

as well there. so those are a few names that we like. >> and just quickly, this accelerating on bank of america, what is that based on? >> an excellent company. no question about that the underwlagt rating has been more a function of perhaps their outlook, their broadest revenue outlook, maybe being a little more aggressive, vis-a-vis their closest peer jpmorgan but it is an excellent company and will do well longer term, it is just we prefer jpmorgan of the two. >> got it. >> and just a final word are you expecting deals on monday >> oh, you know, who knows ask me back on monday. we'll have that conversation in a bigger way >> yeah, i know. nobody knows trick question but we all are in suspense as we go into the weekend. scott, great to have you thanks very much. >> thanks. as we get toward the close, the s&p 500 hovering around the level it's been at for a while down more than 1%. about 3916 the low for the week, one set at

the start of the week, as we got news about the svb backstop. so not going out actually looking at a gain here on the s&p 500 the volatility index has been up, above 25 people bracing for potentially more over the weekend. that will do it for "closing bell." we will send it into united nations -- "overtime". >> that is the scoreboard on wall street, for the week but the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime," it was an ugly day on wall street. as banking fears continued to rattle the market. but for the week, not too shabby the nasdaq actually rallying, more than 4%. >> coming up, rockefeller international chairman ruchir sharma on what could be an under the radar risk that investors need to be watching right now. >> but right now, let's get to