>> that's fascinating. i know you mentioned 60. i can't imagine there's that much room for. that that many. >> but look at the ncaa tournament there's 60, and you come out with a winner. >> thanks for bringing us the story. it's a winning story that's going to do it for us here at "overtime" "fast money" begins now. right her on fast, major markets closing the day with steep losses after all this week's volatility, where are we heading now? the chart master here with the answers. the fattest trade in the market, what one of our traders is calling it later, the chart of the week the maybe unlikely place where investors were flocking amid the turmoil, but can this cryptic reality continue that was a clue. i'm melissa lee. we're live on the desk, steve grasso, dan

nathan and jeff mills. we start out with first republic bank, shares down again. "the new york times" reporting the bank plans to raise cash by selling shares privately jeff has been in first republic. we thought calorie came to the rescue, but there was this sort of overarching question, what happens after 120 day of parking deposits, the bank still needed capital. >> that's right. that's why we didn't want to wait to find out we were in the name, but decided to get out earlier in the week, regardless of what was going to happen, if anybody was going to come to the rescue or not. and i think the thought process was simple, in the sense we didn't want to be overweight banks to begin with, didn't love the exposure given where we are. very simply we took that into account. there was a lot of hair on this. let's blow out the equity when we can, there are a lot of questions around the name still. >> i want to underscore, you're not a momentum trader.

>> for sure not. >> so decide to take a flier on first republic that seems like a real departure. >> this is something we owned for a long time, and initially bought it for fundamental reasons. for machin more than anything, private banking business, looks more like a tech company. we thought it was sound. when this came to light and looking at loan to deposit issues, clearly more exposed to a bank run than other banks. for us, it was time to move on. >> 60% of all deposits were uninsured is the first republic at the end of last year. >> yeah. we were talking about this they're selling stock privately. to be down 20% from 2021 highs similar market cap to silicon valley bank. similar deposit fee. you guys have drawn out a couple very big differences but you look at the market cap of this company and the fact it's down on the announcement it's selling stocks, the market

is pricing it at zero. i think that's something financial investors are going to have to get used to. that's going back to the playbook of 2008 and 2009. i'm not saying we're in that period, but there are stocks right now being priced that way, and i guess the question you have to ask yourself is, what lies beneath if these are the problem childs that are causing these extraordinary measures -- and they are extraordinary, make no mistake about it -- there are going to be issues at larger banks, too i don't mean bigger systemic thing, but there are going to be similar sorts of losses at much larger banks that we'll be dealing with for the balance of this year. >> i don't think the losses, to your point, when you start to overlay the problem with the bigger banks, they're going to be incremental, not insignificant, but incremental to the whole the takeaway for first republic, it's not svb diversified base their whole business strategy was a lot different. the problem is to what you said, that all of these regionals are

getting slapped with the same brush across the board they all sold off today. go ahead, you want to say something. >> our friend danny moses was on the show, and he made an interesting point, is that the difference between '08 and '09 and what's happening now is we've exchanged credit risk for interest rate risk so. what comes after the interest rate risk? it's credit risk we have been talking about hyg work guy and karen on this desk for a long time and talked about the relative weakness. it has tracked but we haven't seen a whole lot of defaults we have jim talking about the commercial real estate pace. do credit issues come after the insurance rate shock is that the thing that keeps these banks down last point, when you think about what will come with the bailouts is going to be further regulation, and that makes these banks just much less investable. >> i don't necessarily disagree

with anything you just said. the only issue that i take is that the large cap banks took $30 billion. granted they didn't give it out of their pocket and it's gone forever, but they don't want these banks to fail. yellen sat down with jamie diamond and said, you're going to figure this out if jamie diamond is sit at the table, the regulation that's coming down the pike is going to be drafted by jamie diamond. >> doesn't mean you want it to stop, though. >> j.p. morguen is a different story than first republic. first republic is a momentum play. >> if you believe the banks were going to face credit problems because of the cycle that we're in, that certainly doesn't go away be gets worse. >> i don't think j.p. morgan is going to have a credit problem we're talking about. i think they could have problems but it's going to be incremental at best. >> that's what i was going to say. what's going to happen with incremental loan growth? these banks are going retrench there's going to be less of

that from a -- already tightening massively. this is going to make that worse, so it's going to hurt profitability at the banks and economic growth, which is already slowing. >> major indices all closing in the red. dow down 380 points, erasing the gains for the week dow and nasdaq managed to stay from the green big tech, fang up 9% since monday dan is just not buying this, not at all. >> you said it's the fattest trade. i'm not going to body shame the nasdaq i'm not going to do that fattest pitch. guy's not here can't make sports analogies. when i look at what happened, it was a flight to stability. i'm not going to call it quality, because i don't think the quality of the earns is going to represent what we see out of most of them the balance of this year when i look at the rally --

nvidia, google has had, s&p earnings and where expectations sit, i think we're going to have lower earnings they're flat still expected to be up 10%. some of the names we just mentioned, they're also the largest names in the s&p 500 to me, i have been gone a few days one of the first thing i did this morning was put a short on the qqq. a lot of goofy stuff happens with this. i just don't like these moves, and i think it's harder to press financials and some of these things that have been hard hit at the epicenter i think you can go after the nasdaq. >> some is overdone. we're going to talk about nvidia later. i talk about this a number of times. i was way early on the trade, admit that 100%, but where do you want to be when earnings growth is slowing? you want to be in companies that are insulated from the economy some of these tech names are that at the same time, if you do have a fed that hikes less than everybody thinks it's going to,

overall i don't think that's a good thing you go back to history, the first rate hike is not good, but that could support multiples. >> it's investing 101. you buy growth companies in a falling rate environment so to everything that you said, they might be able to hold this -- i always believe there's going to be reversion when you see a spike up or a dive down. but if you think that rates have peaked or we're closer to the end, which we are, then you have to be buying growth stocks, tech stocks. >> you want to be ready to average into them. we haven't had the recession yet, steve. >> i think we'll get the reversion. you think get -- everything's frothy, because people looking for management teams if you look at banking stocks right now with the biden administration coming right at them with everything with the failures that are going on, they're not the favorite management teams tech is right now, and your money is quasi safe. >> i have a question bank stocks going down for

whatever reason. does the tech trade still have momentum >> the tech trade has been interesting. worked up in january and february and now it's also working on the way down. it's turning into this less risk on/risk off, and more people looking at the earnings picture. i think you still want to own those names and have exposure regardless of what's going on in the more cyclical areas -- banks, industrials. >> let me make something that's a guarantee right here. >> oh, guarantee. >> this is a guarantee you can take this to the bank. let's figure out how to trade it there will be far fewer bankers on wall street at the end of this year. okay >> there's been far fewer bankers since the financial crisis, so -- >> that's right, but think about the acceleration that's going to happen we're having banks going under, banks that are using technology better when you think cloud services, sas products, a host of different things, they're going to go down in usage this year.

we're also in a period where we just saw unemployment rate pick up off the 53-ier lows with the valuations where they are and names we just talked arc especially microsoft and apple trading mid 20s, they're just not that interesting right here, especially if we haven't iaseen the big hits. >> dan made the labor market point. that's key everybody saying where's the next shoe going to drop? it's strong, the consumer is strong maybe this is part of it you finally start to see the cracks not only from tech but bleeds into other areas. i think that's important relative to where we are in term os this economic cycle. >> after a volatile week of trading where do markets go from here let's bring in the chart master. >> when i heard guarantee, i had to --because that's a big word

but any way, you know, it's funny, i was looking at something -- so, today's a friday, right? and two years ago on a friday, guess what happened? fedex beat, nike missed. and we were all sitting here, and guess what the s&p -- it is exactly unchanged. it's 1316 today. it was 1313 then the market made absolutely no progress in two years. while there's been a lot of volatility, i don't think much is coming. i think the offsets, money flow into apple, microsoft buck that's run its course to a certain extent, and yet this catatonic abandonment of banks and financial energy but we're just churning. let me say this -- all my calls with clients, everyone, because their job is to beat the bench, right? as managers, custodians of assets, they're trying figure out the chess match. and you know this because you're

doing it sometimes it's very hard to do that, and also this -- we all see direction. so think about the market. it's been very directional from the 18 low to covid we were straight up. went straight down, crashed. went straight up all the way from the covid low to the highs and went straight down we haven't had a sideways period in a long time, and there are endless periods in history, '70s, '50s, where you are sideways i think that's what this is. either that's the opportunity to pick winners or churn and never quite go anywhere. >> i have a question, though one week ago -- a week and a half ago, did you always think we were in for a sideways period before this bank meltdown happened >> i know it gets so boring. people are saying, you are saying that a lot. because hold means nothing it's a euphemism for sell. we don't want to offend people it's not a big hand. there are big hands. you get risk reward. do you buy banks that's risk reward

measured by the russell 3,000 or s&p, they are basically stock going nowhere, and i think the terchation is always to see direction. >> carter, thank you see you on "options action." >> guaranteed. >> grasso, quickly, what do you think? >> i agree, and i felt the same way. we're in a trading range dipped down to the trading range, kind of broke it. 5813 is a huge level in the s&p. i don't think we have the able to rally all the way back up to that trading range at the top was 3 4 200, so just watch that level in the to the downside. >> banks are going to report their kwrk-1 earnings, first in the cycle in mid april, and i just got to think as much time as these bankers are going to be spending in washington, the level of transparency -- there is no fudging stuff for their q-1 earnings or outlook, and i think that could be a really nasty period

i think we probably sell off into it a little bit and i think what this bank situation does for companies who have been doing death by a thousand cuts, i think it gives them a mulligan to actually maybe go out there, take down the -- and maybe that's the thing that -- listen, what bugs me about the market right hering and i totally respect what carter said, and carter had a nice call from the february highs -- >> there's a but coming. >> the s&p was going to come in, the they've given back highs and i think we're going to be testing those in the coming future. shares of nvidia bucking the mark, posting highest close since april. that got the stock surging how much is left in the tank in? "fast money" back in two with the answer

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welcome back to "fast money. nvidia feeling the love from wall street, morgan stanley naming it overweight, saying the potential is too strong to stay on the sidelines hiking the price nearly 25% to $305 a share interesting the move from the sidelines to now in overweight after this huge run, jeff? >> it feels like everyone getting sucked into this ai mega

trend, and it's hard to argue that nvidia isn't well positioned for that. they certainly are for a multiyear story this is intact i just have questions about what it's done recently and the potential for roll tillty around ai headlines alone @very expensive again. and it's 40% above the 200 day moving average some for a trade jumping into the stock now to follow these upgrades, i would not be doing that. if you're a long-term investor, you like the story, fine, but i think a lot of good news has been built in at the moment. >> there's a difference between flight to apple, flight to microsoft, or flight to nvidia. >> if you think about it there's going to be two set of people, two set of organizations those making investments and those getting the benefits of nvidia is receiving the money. the stock is up 76% year to

date amd and nvidia have blown away the field by a long shot i think you get a better entry point, but this is going to be the tail end. >> update on credit swees. >> ubs is in discussions to take over all or part of credit suisse this would potentially be europe's most historic banking combination if a deal were to come through since the financial crisis again, ubs is said to be looking at credit suisse to take over part of all of the embattled bank that of course has seen its shares rocked this week and concerns over its financial stability, even after the swiss national bank stepped we are seeing credit suisse move higher on this report more as we get it. >> again, this is according to if financial times yesterday bloomberg reported ubs

was not interested in credit suisse things may have changed in the last 24 hours but these are the headline you get amidst a banking crisis. >> certainly doesn't make you feel good. we knew they had issues and that's been around for a long time maybe that's been diversified to a degree, but just in terms of the sentiment, i don't think news hike this particularly helps you see the stock up in the afterhours, but i think that ultimately fades and creates anxiety. crypto touching a level it hasn't seen since june how to trade the names throughout march, we're celebrating women's heritage here's ceo and cofounder of rent the runway. >> we're all capable of way more than we give ourselves credit more women need to dream extremely big. the bigger you dream, the bigger the outcome is going to be i started rent the runway at 27. i didn't have any experience

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welcome back to "fast money. time for chart of the week it is bitcoin, surging 34% since last friday. best since january 2021. highest level since june crypto stocks coming along for the ride all seeing huge gains this week

with marathon jumping more than 50%. what did you call the -- fat pitch? is that the term is this another fat pitch? >> i just find it very uninteresting. if you think about bit kcoin and how it acted last year, one of the pillars was an inflation hedge. it's obviously acting well as centralized financial systems are going haywire. i just don't find it that interesting. then think about the money pouring into coin base that doesn't look interesting to me either when you think about how much market cap has been lost this is a $17 billion market cap. >> what's the biggest risk right now relative to banks, and everybody's flying to bitcoin because of banks it's regulation. what's the biggest risk to bitcoin? regulation, and it just gets worse. >> it gets worse

>> they're in the crosshairs regulatory environment gets turned up, and they're -- >> i think there's an angle for it to be less because they're focused so much on banks right now where i think you have the ability to say -- >> that was the only thing, fair enough. >> walking and chewing gum are not the strong suit of congress. from hot to not, united rental down another 6% it's been another unlucky month for the largest rental company worse pace since march 2020. jeff what can do you say about this one >> i have a quick chart. ume against pri. you've seen it move in the opposite direction now the economy is catching up you're going to see a mean reversion. >> you know what the price target range is on uri 296 is the low, 950 is the high. >> 950 >> 950 in the price targets. >> got to take out the targets.

>> if there's ever a company that's situated in the prime zone, it's a rental company. you don't have to put in that cap "x" and take that long window of payments you have the flexibility. >> good. >> yeah, i think it's gad. if you're going to be in the space and it's a slow down, you get the optionalty without buying in 100%. >> i just think less business means less activity. >> karen and i were talking about this about commute home. she made the same points in terms of not wanting to own the equipment. time for the final trade what goes by so quickly on a friday steve? >> i guarantee you my final trade is nvidia, but wait for a pullback >> jeff mills. >> i'm going sell cat. i think it's finally acting the way it should relative to the economic environment. >> dan, it's nice to have you back in new york city. >> great to be back with you guys

if steve is correct and nvidia pulls back, i guarantee you the qqq will come in also. i just think some of those big names have overshot. they went par bollic this week i think they revert. >> a lot of guaranteeing >> no, no, i made one guarantee -- one guarantee i'm fairly certain it's going to happen, less bankers at the end of the year. >> i can guarantee you something else, too. our time is up for fast. don't go anywhere. "options action" is up next, guaranteed i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this.

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right now, catching you up after a tumultuous week. indices ending the cdaydown. however, for the week, the dow is nearly unchanged. the s&p moderately higher. the nasdaq is up more than 4%. that nasdaq number, though, may be giving investors a false sense of security. we'll explain that plus we are still in the midst of earningsnd system one restaurant side could provide welcome refreshment. on the desk tonight, mike