it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here are the top "five@5." do not call it a bail out. ubs buying credit suisse we are live with the latest. also shoring up support. the fed announcing new rules to boost interbank liquidity. another lifeline for a sector under pressure. speaking of selling. wall street waking up to a sea of read as they gauge the bank rescue and what it means for the

fed. and despite a $30 billion deposit last week, s&p taking the axe to credit suisse again shaking the bank and the banking industry. we kickoff the series of the u.s. housing market and where the crisis could set up for a major reset. it is monday, march 20th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's kickoff the hour with the check on u.s. stock futures. off the lows in the early trade. with we we are seeing a sea of red the dow would open up 150 points lower if it opened now the bond yields right now at 3.718 for the 2-year treasury.

the 10-year treasury yield right now will see a similar decline month to date. 3.33 that is 60 basis points lower than it started the month. the price of oil and wti is $65 a barrel you see it is down 2.25% brent crude is down 2.25% as well natural gas up 1.5%. you see oil down 15% in the past month. let's check crypto bitcoin topping $28,000. that $25,000 mark was meaningful you see it is up .25%. bitcoin up 20% month to date ethereum is down this morning. solana is up 4.5%. now turning to the top story and breaking late yesterday. ubs will buy credit suisse for

more than $3 billion and assume more than $5 billion in losses that deal backed by the swiss government it marks a final chapter in the 167-year-old bank. it is bank takeover since the financial crisis we have geoff cutmore and julianna tatelbaum and also corporate finance editor arash massoudi let's kick everything off with geoff. >> reporter: let's remind the stock finished trading on friday, credit suisse was effectively worth $8 billion or so so we get to today and a deal hatched out over the weekend involving the swiss central bab bank, the government and ubs and credit suisse. now it is worth $3.2 billion

the equity owners will see a 59% haircut on the deal. more importantly, some key bondholders will be wiped out completely the reasons for this and we know credit suisse has had long-term problems it has been in permanent restructuring in recent years. the chairman said the recent issue was down to crisis in the u.s. banking system. let's hear what he had to say. >> translator: the latest developments from the banks in the u.s. hit us. one time last year, we were able to overcome the uncertainty. not the second time. >> reporter: so ultimately, we have a deal and we have decisive

action by the swiss shauthoriti. there are ramifications for the way we need to think about any future bailouts for systemically important banks which is key which is the owners of the a-t-1 bonds and the capital structure and you expect equity owners to lose money, but the bondholders to be supported. that is not taking place here. that may have unintended consequences for the way others feel about bank debt now back to you. >> geoff, we will talk more about the a-t-1 bondholders. and outside the deal, they are boosting liquidity in the banking system give us a sense how important that is related to the deal. >> reporter: primarily, what we are talking about here isis

thethe availability of dollars around the world. we will ensure we don't see any further problems when it comes to the commercial banks being able to lend out dollars which is critically important for anyone who has dollar den denominated debt or wants to do trade settlement in the global currency in a significant way, i think this announcement shows, one, that the central banks are taking coordinated action and, two, they understand the potential risk around some of the banking deals, and, three, they also realize that the risks of drying up liquidity at the time when interest rates are rising are greater than those in the banking system this swap line or swap lines that will be extended out to other central banks will

ultimately allow commercial banks to draw on dollars from those banks to help their own customers. back to you. >> geoff cutmore outside zurich trading. thank you. time for the global market reaction with julianna tatelbaum. what are you seeing? >> frank, good morning here in europe, we opened up deeply in the red as investors began to digest the news over the weekend that geoff outlined. notably, sentiment has improved the last half hour we actually got a bit of green on the board the cac 40 in positive territory. now before your eyes, the german market and italian market also crossing into positive territory. we have bounced well off the lows of the day. the stoxx 600 opened 1.75% lower. the swiss market clearly still under pressure ubs and credit suisse trading lower within the region do down .80%.

notable that sentiment has improved now we will see if that positive momentum continues and if investors deemed the lows of the day. the banks more broadly are selling off sharply. ubs down 9%. credit suisse trading around the level of the terms agreed in the deal over the weekend. you see the italian lenders turning positive as well investors really trying to understand what the implications of the deal are and as geoff mentioned and you mentioned, frank, a-t-1 bonds are key in the early trade, we see other european banks falling sharply as the deal with ubs and credit suisse and the bondholders wiped out and investors considering what it means more broadly if we take a step back, we saw heavy selling across the asian region hang seng bearing the brunt of

the selloff. that is bank and tech heavy. we saw heavy selling in hong k kong mainland china is the resilient of the bunch 0.5% lower we see the china state banks bucking the trend in overnight trade. frank, the global market is on edge we are seeing red across the board, but sentiment turning positive in europe frank. >> julianna tatelbaum, live in london, thank you very much. let's bring in arash massoudi from the financial times. >> thank you for having me. >> are there any other shoes that could drop amid the continued crisis with the banking sector >> the best way to think about it is the second weekend in two where banks required rescuing. we had silicon valley bank and the process there and the

surprise with signature bank which was less expected. now credit suisse this weekend what is happening is we feel we are in a fragile moment for the system when you are dealing with the fragility, there are shocks to confidence somehow that attacks the banks with the lowest amount of confidence credit suisse is an outlier for years. the scandals and mismanagement and restructuring. it got lost in the news on monday when silicon valley banks was rescued in the uk by hsbc, credit suisse filed the annual reports on monday. it reported material weakness in the accounts, which was a huge bout of confidence after the restructuring, they could not produce numbers and full confidence and had to tell material weakness in the annual

report that was followed by the comments from the saudi bank investor who would not prop up the bank you had a perfect storm of c confidence taking place into the weekend. what happens now is if there are other institutions with lack of confidence and another sort of shock to the system or unexpected surprise, that is what we are monitoring you layer that with the a-t-1 issue and you have a few elements that are closely w watched. >> i want to get reaction to a few things first off, swiss authorities seem to go to great lengths of the deal listen to this we want your reaction. >> this is no bailout. this is a commercial solution because we have a takeover of ubs -- ubs is taking over credit suisse this is a commercial solution and not a bailout.

we want to avoid a bailout for different reasons. >> arash, officials emphasizing this is not a bailout. a commercial solution. what is your response to that? >> i think we should be clear in the fact that it appears to be the case of consensus that credit suisse would not be functioning had there not been a solution you can call it a solution or bailout. you notice the loss guarantees and liquidity provided by the swiss national bank. it has feelings of a bailout it is fair to say ubs is purchasing the stock in credit suisse however, there are huge guarantees to prop up that this shotgun marriage was arranged by the government and regulators in switzerland. it was by no means a deal ubs wanted to do and credit suisse had to accept it holding its breath. >> shotgun marriage is the term

people are using for the deal. quickly, i want to get into the a-t-1 bonds. we hear the bondholders will be wiped out which is the opposite way it works bondholders get paid first normally explain the importance of the a-t-1 bond situation >> this was a class of debt that was created unique to bank stocks and banks as geoff explained, it was super y superior in the equity structure. some people are saying is it really a surprise when a bank had to be rescued that these get wiped out? other people are saying, we have no confidence in the a-t-1 bonds across the board this is the reason for the selling. this will require further

explanation by swiss authorities why they structured the deal we pushed to get answers we didn't get a fully aligned response i think there are a lot of moving parts it is important for the eurozone and swiss regulator to explain today why they did it this way and how the debt will rank >> arash, thank you very much. we frappreciate your time when we come back, more on the historic deal for credit suisse and major investor largely left empty handed. and what does this mean at home and for jay powell's policy playbook then in the wake of the reckoning, we ask if the real estate market is set for a reset. more ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. help you find and unlock opportunities in the market

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welcome back to "wex." futures are in the red as instability weighs on investor confidence and raises the stakes for the fed rate decision on wednesday. wall street targeting a 65% chance of .25 increase that is according to the fed watch tool and 39% chance of no rate hike at all let's talk about this with gina sanchez and gene goldman great to have you here

gene, i'll have you first. futures in the red this morning. bank stocks continuing to decline this morning that follows the credit suisse deal that was supposed to stabilize the global financial markets. ideally, all of the markets throughout the globe why are we seeing this reaction from the futures and bank stocks this morning >> look, i think that the way this deal came through doesn't sound like a commercial solution that is unnerving. that is unnerving investors. the bigger question is quite frankly 39% chance that they don't hike that is actually quite large that has been increasing which is to say the markets are starting to think the fed probably shouldn't do anything and if they do, then we are likely going to go into recession and the equity markets are not priced for it and it would have to fall further in

order to accommodate that outlook. >> gene, what are you? we are seeing the dow down 150 points at the open at this stage. the other two indices in the red. bank stocks down 2% or 3% after a deal that was supposed to stabilize things >> frank, thank you for having me on the show listen, the credit suisse news last night is mixed. positive we see some stability in the financial system a bit we saw that ubs did agree to pay more than they anticipated on saturday the great thing is swiss national bank agreed it is not a direct government intervention the negative that is weighing on the markets and this is why futures sold off last night. ubs executives continue to say swiss regulators made us do this second of all, some people learned about it and the addition of a-t-1 bonds which are zeroed out these are senior to equity if you think of the ramifications on the go forward

basis, this is a $275 billion market you know, these gets will be wiped out. what happens to other banks tapping this market? these investments offer higher yield and they are risky who thought they would be zeroed out to equities? >> gene, after everything we have seen, i want to talk about the regional banks in the united states how investable is the sector or do you have different views on different stocks >> sorry, gina >> is it gina or gene? >> gina, go ahead. >> okay. i think the sector right now is a challenge. one of the reasons is it will be thrown out baby with the bath water or bank water if you want

to put it that way they are all being treated equally. the reason is because the regulatory leniency which has been highlighted and part of the silicon valley bank story exists in a lot of these banks. if you look at the banking system in the united states, you have almost -- there is a massive amount of hold to maturity treasury and mbs securities and if it had to be sold, it would be sold at significant losses that is not tier 1 capital that will not make you feel really warm and fuzzy about keeping your deposits in any regional bank right now. that is the kind of fragility you are talking about. it is a hard sell. >> gene, i'll ask a different question we have to get out of here quickly. what do you think of the fed decision this week a hike or no hike? >> we have three things from the

fed. the fed should not raise rates they will raise rates 25 basis points we believe they have to. if they don't raise by 25, people will be fearing this with the banking issues the fed will prioritize stability over growth. the powell pressor they will stress policy. in the dot plot, it is less hawkish. the fed will push through with the 25 basis point hike. two weeks ago in congressional testimony, powell was saying he was worried about inflation. >> gina, i saw that nod of your head at the 25 point hike. thank you both for being here. coming up on "worldwide exchange, on" we ask our panel about the risks facing the sector and if recent fears are happening.

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5:30 a.m. in the new york city area. we are just getting started here on "wex. here is what is on deck. ubs buying credit suisse for $3 billion with saudi arabia losing

the majority of investment in the swiss bank we are live outside credit suisse hq with the latest. and this prompting fears around the central banks to keep the money flowing in the financial sector questions on what this means for the fed rate hike policy path it is monday, march 20th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "wex." i'm frank holland. let's check on the markets and how they are shaping up on the back of the credit suisse deal fult futures are in the red dow could open up 150 points lower. s&p and nasdaq are solidly in the red. we want to pay attention to the bond market. the yields have been falling all

month long 2-year treasury at 3.72. we are seeing the 10-year treasury at 3.33 60 basis points lower than it started the month. we want to watch oil shedding more than 10% last week right now, wti crude is below $70 a barrel and 65.50 we want to check on the crypto board bitcoin crossing 28,000. that is meaningful for the c cr crypto the others are in the red with the exception of solana. turning attention back to the top story. breaking late yesterday. ubs will buy credit suisse for more than $3 billion and assume $5 billion of losses

this deal was backed by the swiss government and marks the chapter in the 167-year-old bank the biggest bank takeover since the great financial crisis we have the global fallout covered. we have geoff cutmore outside credit suisse head quaquarters d hadley gamble and stephen biggar with the latest. let's start with geoff >> reporter: we know this deal was worth $8 billion last week and now ubs is buying credit suisse for $3 billion. now a lifeline offered for over

$100 billion to make sure the deal goes through. i think the price action in the market at the moment in credit suisse and ubs and regional banks in europe tell you a lot of investors are not happy with the way bondholders at the a-t-1 level are being wiped on out in the deal equity holders take a 59% haircut as well. politically, this is controversial because the swiss government providing backstopping we have politicians complaining this deal shouldn't go through because they think the support being given to ubs is inappropriate. while the immediate crisis at credit suisse has now been tackled and the final chapter has been far from written. back to you.

>> thank you, geoff. a few months ago, they were a white knight with credit suisse. with the deal today, saudi arabia seeing the investment nearly wiped out hadley gamble, break this one on what this means for credit suisse and the saudis. >> reporter: frank, we are talking a $1 billion loss. saudi national confirming an hour ago that 80% of their investment has been wiped out. saudi national bank is back bid the saudi government backed by the saudi government they hold a 9.9% stake they bought it last november at that time, there were humors this was offered to the sovereign wealth fund and punted to snb those were happy to restructure

credit suisse. the chairman telling me last week his comments about no more money for credit suisse actually had to do with the bank regulatory requirements. not with the lack of confidence. when this began, they were still well capitalized the chairman of snb said this was a sign of fragility in the market and not an issue with credit suisse. here are we are. the saudi vendor is backed by the saudi government and losing as much as $1 billion. >> hadley gamble, thank you for the update turning attention back to the deal and developments closer to home as regulators look to shore up confidence. first up is the community bank is agreeing to buy all deposits and loan portfolio of collapsed signature bank and 140 blap bra. the fdic is relaunching the sale

of silicon valley bank and then asking regulators to extend the fdic emergency insurance deposits in the next two years to boost confidence. and late sunday, despite the cash influence, snp is dow dowgrading again let's take this together with stephen biggar and steve sk scouten. >> thank you for having me. >> right now, stocks are lower in the pre-market. we see the reaction for credit suisse and ubs this deal was supposed to shore up the global financial sector

why aren't we seeing a better response >> there were with worries of how bad credit suisse was. the backstop is one thing. the inability of the a-t-1 bonds wiped out providing capital worries going forward and how safe are those and how difficult will it be to recapitalize banks going forward. i agree. cooler heads will prevail here we had a big stock to the system we had a couple of failures and deposit runs, et cetera. i will call it a bailout that is financial assistance to prevent a company from failing you know, the backstopping that is going on at the government level will stem the tide of losses. >> stephen, you are answering the question before i ask it

stephen scouten now. same question. >> there is still trepidation of the casualties beyond this there is a little bit of shoot first and ask questions later when it comes to the stocks. you will continue to see the fallout until we get increased certainty. the intervention helps and it will stem the tide of deposit outflows in the near term, investors want a margin of safety there especially the larger institutions which are trying to avoid the sector for the time being. you know, people will jump back in eventually and try to find value plays. for the time being, they need more certainty and more explicit guarantees from the u.s. government with the implicit guarantees noted in the programs >> stephen scouten, the performance on the regional banks month to date.

the business models are expected to change. we are seeing steep declines are the ones you can pick out better than other ones would you advise investors to stay away from the sector all together >> not permansonally. as a firm, we are not making the call yet the issues we had in a couple of banks which have failed so far are idiosyncratic. those deposit basis are granular the business deposits are strong in southeast markets i think they are investable. there is a lot of value. the business models have not changed in the past two weeks. clearly we have a liquidity issue at hand. their customers are still with them today we met with a couple of banks in person they are seeing deposit inflows.

the view the regional banking model is dead is overblown and that is to be expected with what we have seen i think it is viable and a lot of opportunities for investors to capitalize in the weeks and months ahead. >> stephen biggar, the kbe is down 3% in the pre-market. the conventional wisdom is the deposits are going to a bigger bank why isn't that a tailwind? >> it is you will see less of a decline since the crisis started in the large banks as deposit flows moved into what are considered safer in the systemically important banks. you will continue to see that. a bit of a genius move to re recapitalize the smaller banks the industry helping itself out. i guess there is some risk seen

in that move itself. that could be part of what we're seeing here. you know, bank failures, i want to add have been extraordinarily rare we had none in fdic institutions in 2022. 2021, we had four. it is difficult to pick out the next bank that will fail between the government efforts and federal term loan bank and other efforts of the industry is shoring up the deposits and safety factor. >> stephen biggar, if more go to the bigger banks, does that mean they step up loan activity we hear loan conditions will tighten. will they expect the bigger banks to make more loans >> no. that is a worry spot banks during the pandemic lamented the surge in deposits they can't loan them out fast

enough and make a good return. the fdic insurance fees are probably moving higher that was another good move for the banks to recapitalize and shift deposits elsewhere it sounds like a good problem to have than not have a place to lend it. >> literally too much of a good thing. you rarely hear that about money. stephen biggar and stephen scouten, thank you. coming up, getting a checkup on the housing market. diving into the state of the sector and why the strong spring season may actually be facing a reset. "worlddexcng iba iwi ehae"s ckn a moment for businesses of all sizes, there are a lot of choices

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welcome back to "wex." we are 12 hours away from spring and that is the busy time for the u.s. housing market. there is strong demand for housing and major headwinds in the way. including the stress we are seeing across the regional banking sector that why we break it down for you and we will do it all week long from buyers to builders and inventory and investors. we go to open houses across the country and have special guests to talk about all this and we with will bring in cnbc real estate correspondent diana olick who is here to kick it off

diana, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, frank. housing is not starting spring on a great foot. i'll explain by taking you through a lot of numbers get ready. starting with mortgage rates they have been on a wild ride with the rate on the 30-year fixed peaking in october and pulling back in january and spiking in february and now back down a bit thanks to the banking stress rates are two points higher than the start of last spring making the monthly payment on the average home just over $400 more than a year ago home prices pulled back a bit. some since last summer nationally, they are still up over 5% from a year ago. some people are predicting they will go negative annually. lodgic is saying they will even upp -- end up from last year. new listings at the end of

february were down 16% from the year before. the home builders should be helping, right builder sentiment has gone up for three straight months with builders claiming they are seeing more sales and lenar reporting strong earnings. they said sales continued in february, but they are not building enough. single family housing rose 1% month to month and down 32% the year before. permits were stronger, but lower than last spring that's the big picture again, a lot of numbers and it still remains to be seen how the regional bank stresses impact mortgage rates going forward it is impacting credit availability for jumbo loan borrowers. this will impact weak consumer confidence in the housing market frank. >> diana, thank you very much for this report.

see you tomorrow let's see the outlook for housing and see if the reset is on deck. let's bring in logan mohtashami. >> great to be here. >> the jumping off point from where diana left us. how does the regional banking sector impact the housing market >> anybody will see stress, but luckily for us, freddie and fannie are still in receivership they are in receivership and two giants in lending. the housing market is where the 10-year treasury goes and if mortgage rates go up, data gets worse. november and december and january and housing data got better the existing home sale report should be better this time. >> logan, we see rates decline in recent weeks. how is that impacting the

housing market especially the spring buying season where people look to transition especially if you have kids. you want to make the move in these months so everybody is set for the school year. >> the rates went up 6% to 7%. the last two weeks have gotten better fall is where purchase application is going look out 30 days or 90 days. that is the housing story. tomorrow's report should be fine the following few may not be great. if the rates go lower, it is better for the home builders >> where is inventory? a couple of weeks ago, it was low. where do we stand now? >> we are still historically low. active listings are higher than last year. it is still an affordability issue. new listings data is declining year over year histo

historically, the affordability issue is overriding that it is about an affordability and not about supply >> if anybody follows you on social media, you are a chart guy. diana says prices could move 3% higher this year what are your charts showing you? i think people want to hear prices will go down. >> prices should decline if mortgage rates stay above 5% all the way around not by much. this is not the housing market of 2007. we have 4 million active listings in 2007 we have less than 1 million today. not the 2008 housing market. no distress sales. homeowners are in good spots right now. they don't have to be forced to sell anything. they stubborn. this is the benefit to the home builders they don't have a lot of competition. stock is doing better and sales have picked up >> it is hard to move when you

have a low mortgage and you have to buy at a higher mortgage rate. >> it is true. it is the best hedge on planet earth is the 30-year fixed mortgage homeowners are doing better. >> logan, we have to leave it there. i appreciate the insight. hahead here on "wex," the nasdaq turned to the positive. we are off on the lows with the s&p and dow. we will bring in greg branch to give us insight on the reversal when it comes to the futures and layout the trading week ahead. we have more to talk about with greg coming up more on "wex." back in a moment

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comeback let's bring in greg branch greg, are investors diffigestin the news and is sentiment shift under way? >> it should be, frank what we have seen is the idiosyncratic risk we can point to the failures and point why it happened and what company specific factors led to the event. i expect sentiment to shift until they digest the next headwinds. >> it sounds like you are looking at the fed meeting give me a sense of what you are seeing odds of the 25 basis point hike and it seems 50 is off the table. >> frank, i don't think the fed meeting will be a headwind the fed has one choice

they can't go zero as much as people want them to because it sends the false signal that the fight with inflation is over and that is not the case then, number two, it leads to the confidence system. it leads to the fed leading to the fragility in the system. they have to at least raise 25 they will not follow the ecb lead i thought they thought it was contained when they put up the facility and they are surprised it stretched into the week. >> you see the big deal for credit suisse and ubs buys at a discount for pennies on the dollar wit we have seen what our government has done why is the market worried? >> i don't share the concerns. frank, these were company specific events. credit suisse has had five quarters and year-long history of missteps and five quarters of no profits looking at credit suisse, which

needed new management at the end of the day, i don't think we can extrapolate that to anything in the u.s. what investors should be concerned about is that lots of tides are turning to provide headwinds. estimates are way too high at the end of the day, with, i think, profits and demand coming in, we saw with retail sales in february which were down 40 basis points then the consumer being cautious, you see top lines turnover. >> greg, you have to give us a pick if you were going to invest in something, etf, equity, bonds. what with would it be? >> play it safe. short duration fixed income. pays you to wait gets through the debt ceiling battle the best case is 2011. >>is uncharacteristic. >> thank you

we did a very reversal the nasdaq in the green. the dow looks to open up 60 points lower nasdaq is reversing into the green. that will do it for us here on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is up next. kids moving back in after college. ♪ finally we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna...♪ and then we looked around and said, wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller! (laughing) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mhm. cool...i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything! and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?! ♪ yeah, yeah ♪ the eagle has landed. that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? -one giant... uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game? yeah, it's what we can do with the xfinity 10g network.

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good morning weekend dealmaking i guess that is what it was. forced ubs buys credit suisse for $3 billion fwith the sizeable loan from the swiss government. and decision time. expectations for the meeting are all over the map what the markets are pricing in. u.s. stock futures are well off the lows of the session. down 350 points earlier. we will show you what is moving now. it is monday, march 20th

the first trading day of spring. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. everyone is watching this morning. trying to see what the u.s. equities are going to be reacting to all this you see the dow futures are off 61 that is off the lows of the session. we have been down by 350 points early this morning s&p futures right now down 4.5 the nasdaq indicated up right now by over 3 points this has been bouncing all over the place when the futures opened last night where it opened in possible tough territory. you have seen -- opened in