potentially at the end of this tightening cycle >> going to have some strong insightful economic voices for you tomorrow, helping to -- help you figure out what to do with your money >> that is right in the meantime, that is going to do it for us here at "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," bruised and batters. shares of first republic getting pounded again, while a number of regionals seem to be showing signs of life. is now the time to step in and buy names in the sector? we'll debate that. plus, amazon slashing its work force 9,000 additional job cuts today. this of course on top of the 18,000 the e-commerce giant laid off in november. should all the tech world brace for her belt tightening? and later, foot locker's fade despite bull ish comments o its relationship with nike i'm melissa lee, this is "fast

money," we're live at the nasdaq market site. we start off with a rebound on wall street to kick off the week the dow jumping more than 380 pounds, with just two components finishing in the red the s&p and nasdaq closing near day's highs. all this as the race to rescue the banking system continues, after another week of turmoil in the financial markets. a fomeantime, in the u.s., u.s. community bank agreeing to buy the assets of signature pbank fr less than $3 billion and first citizens looking to make a fresh bid for silicon valley and then, there's this a group of mid size banks asking the fdic to ensure all bank deposits for two years the move helping the financial sector startto rebound wasn't all good news shares of first republic falling 47%. the latest development, jpmorgan is advising the company on strategic alternatives including

a potential capital raise. so, with all this action in the sack or the, we wondered, let's put up the four-box. i'm going to ask the question here is it time to buy the banks? show of hands, raise your hand if you say yes, it is time to buy the banks. >> oh, boy >> crickets. >> they're not monoliths, though >> they're not >> in terms of regionals would you step in? >> we're all sitting on our hands the way jamie dimon is sitting on his hands >> that's fair yeah >> got to get a better shot. >> that's the question what are we sitting on our hands for? there's a note out of baird. if not now, then when? >> when to buy >> yeah. when would you buy the regionals? >> look, this is the time, and to the extent that if anything there's coming support in terms of confidence for the regional banks. we still don't know really what the costs are going to be and those costs are cost of capital, we don't know what the regulatory environment is going to be. i think we'll be waiting for a long time if we want for that to change so, if you look at the times

when banks had this kind of credit dislocation in history, this is typically the time if you look at what the bkx has done over the last four, five days, it's st 's stabilized somt i still think we have information in terms of who is going to be forced into bed with who, et cetera no question to me that we are overdone in terms of the group, in terms of positioning, in terms of what was specific to the banks, had the duration mismatch, the funding mismatch, whatever you want to say, that's not the entire banking sector. >> julie, you are just shaking your head, no way jose, what it looked like from you why? >> you know, i just continue to not like banks i think the hardest thing is really understanding their financial statements there's so much opportunity to, you know, have banks that are kind of hidden offsight. but the biggest problem that i have is you basically require dumbo's magic feather. you have to believe it's going

to be solvent. you have to believe that your deposits are always going to be there. that's not a business model i like i don't want to the dependent on other people's confidence. i want them to buy my stuff or buy my services. those are the types of businesses i would much rather own. >> wow, dumbo's magic feather. >> i don't know what that is >> you don't know the story of dumbo? the little mouse is in his hat -- >> it's very sad in the beginning and i just shut down >> that's how we learn -- >> i figured out -- >> hey, well, just in case somebody out there doesn't have a toddler and young child, i didn't know five months ago. >> you think you don't learn anything on this show. >> i know. the more you know. but some extent, there is a magic feather element -- >> i believe there's more than a magic feather to the banks, right? i believe that the government feels that we absolutely need a financial structure that can be counted on, these are the eight, we are never letting them fail, and i think that is enough there's a different question of, do you want to buy the stock,

right? so, i think that, as tim said, we're still in a situation of sun certainty, a lot of flex we don't know what -- let's say the banks get their wish and they get this two-year deposit insurance. >> right. >> for free? i doubt they're getting it for free they got to pay something, right? they have to give up something, pay something -- >> consumer pays it. >> less leverage, something. we don't know what that is so, it's hard to figure out. i think that there will be opportunities, i'm not quite sure, i mean, you see a lot of deposit flow out of these. i don't know how hard it is to get it back, right and i got to imagine that -- we know bank of america got a bunch, jpmorgan must have been flooded with deposits. so, things have changed a lot. i would rather wait and buy things higher and more stable. >> that's interesting. rather buy them when you have more clarity >> right >> and actually, that makes a lot of sense when you think about what we

just don't know about these, the fact that we've seen five bank equities here in the u.s. basically go to zero and no one's really stepped in. there's been extraordinary measures to try to backstop them, there's been no buyers, so, if jamie dimon is perceived to be the smartest buyer of financial assets other than warren buffett, who is also now buying, why should you why should you take that risk? i know people that bought first republic last week at 80s the. i know some who bought it last week at $50. i know someone who bought it today at $20 and i'm trying to be nice to these people and i'm trying to say, what are you doing here it just makes no sense so, to me, there's thousands of stocks go have a ball go buy a bunch that you think have, like, great business models that have technology that are investing in, great management and not financialized, don't have to be exposed to this, because i'm just going to tell you this -- i don't know about you guys, but seeing frc cut in half today and seeing a stock like charles

schwab sell off 6.5% from its opening highs after the close, all i know is that i start recalling what it felt like in 2008 once they got done with one of these things, they started to figure out, what is the next one they're going to go for? i just don't know why it makes sense to be a hero we're going to talk about the market later here, but i thought the market was absolutely bonkers today, the fact that the s&p and the nasdaq were up and then this problem child, not to mention what happened with credit suisse and ubs, their equity went to zero, to me, i'm like, who wants to be a hero and buy stocks here? >> just talking about first republic for just one second, i think that, you know, it opened today, was down somewhat, but then the story about, are they going to convert their deposits into capital, right, so, that clearly is telling you, it's not going well right? and then later on in the day, seemed like the story was, they're looking for a buyer. i would suspect they've been looking for a buyer for awhile,

right? we know thatjpmorgan we know that at the moment there doesn't seem to be one, or we would have -- we would have gotten some inning ling of that. so, it's right that this one trades just, you know, black hole kind of -- >> yeah. >> so, in terms of trading these banks, we know from 2008, we know this from other times in history where you've had the extreme dislocations, it was the bottom in 2009, they had a swift rally very swiftly 45 days, the btx rallied that was off the low the question is, are we at the low? i'm not sure we know where the low is and when i think about the stock market here, i think the stock market is rallying for different re reasons. it's a tangled mess we're in the middle of. it appears there's an opportunity for equities i just think we're in a dynamic where if you look at peak to trough and the move in the cues

into this move and where sentiment is, doesn't surprise me at all. in fact, it plays into a fed meeting where i think a dovish hike is something that actually can take equities even higher. we're seeing that golden cross in the cues, we're seeing that outperformance, companies like apple that are actually trading within 5% or 10% oftheir all-time highs, is extraordinary, but it's not surprising, given where positioning is >> dovish hike meaning a hike and then they say no more. >> i don't know if they'll say it just like that, but the concept is, the banks have tightened financial conditions already for the fed in the last week credit lending is tightening, so, yeah, i mean -- i don't think it's crazy idea, the 25 bips is all we go. >> i think they shouldn't raise at all they said they're data-dependent we got a lot of data in the last two weeks. i don't see the harm in -- i don't know, just waiting, you can maintain your hawkish spin

i -- >> might that stem some fear, though -- >> if they said no more? >> 50 basis points a few weeks ago, so, then, it went down to 25, and now -- what does that say? and again, i think people -- >> well, gotten a little cooler data >> still 6%. i mean -- >> it's high, but directionally. >> i'm just going to play -- what do you think is going to happen with rates going lowerlo >> >> we don't want rates to go lower. and by the way, two years from 5.06% to 3.63% this morning we've pressed a lot. >> let's bring in gerard cassidy for more do you think for the regionals, if you look at the kred, do you think we've seen the worst of it stock-wise for this group? >> i do think the biggest percent declines have already happened, and as you guys have just been talking about, are we

near a bottom? that is the question and i think we are going to be bottoming here in the next couple of weeks, because we all want to see the data from the first quarter. the first quarter data will come out in april, and that's what we want to see, particularly on deposits >> i feel like the big question, gerard, when you think about the -- it's fine to know that we're closer to a bottom and that's theoretically good, but we don't know what it looks like in terms of the operating environment, in terms of regulation, et cetera, and so how -- like, what does your model look like if we don't know those sorts of factors >> i think we should all take into account similar to past periods when we've gone through a crisis, particularly '08-09, we know more regulation is coming there will probably be lower profitability. . >> gerard, and i hear you on this, and i think you're right,

we're asking that question on when is the low, but i also -- i care a lot about your view, the analyst community's view, to the discount rate we're putting on banks, to the unknown, to, you know, a world where banks were rerating the payout levels were going higher, the buy backs were going higher these are all reasons for people to get excited, but the analyst community, to price banks at a different level. what are you doing, or what do you think the community is going to do in the next few months >> i think you're getting right to the point on valuation, because you're absolutely right. following the financial crisis, the valuations dropped and we had to reset and then, what we saw in 2018, when they reached about 1.6 times book and 2.2 times tangible, those were the levels that we aspired to up until very recently so, i think you have to lower those aspiration levels, because of lower profitability maybe weapon get to 1.4 times book and 1.8 times tangible, but that's the area where i think we're heading toward

but today, it's very tough to see that, because of what's going on >> gerard, just throwing valuation out the window, because maybe it's a moving target, especially when you consider how aggressive rates have been moving in every which direction over the last call it few months or so, do you think there's a potential that we're going to start seeing some of your peers maybe say, listen, some of these money center banks might be prudent to kind of slow down buy backs, cut dividends, suspend them because i go back and i put my 2008 hat on, i think a lot of the financial institutions probably wish they had kind of slowed down the cash return quicker, okay, not knowing what lies ahead, and so, i just -- it just kind of interesting that it's easy to kind of just say, this is now ring fence, europe is ring fence. that page out of that playbook doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. >> i hear you very clearly, and it's an interesting observation. i guess where i would differ

somewhat is that unlike '08-09 or 1990, those are credit debacles that crushed the banks, forced them to cut and eliminate dividends. this is an interest rate problem that's reallien been driven by silicon valley and signature bank failures. so, i think what you're going to see, banks know, if they maintain the dividends through the next cycle, which is maybe what they're in right now, they will rerate. so, dividend cuts are the last thing they need to do. plus, they've got strong capital levels today, unlike '07, plus, they have plenty of liquidity against the biggest banks. >> you mentioned this is an interest rate issue, not a credit cycle, on the other side of this, isn't there likely to be greater defaults on the credit side? and i guess that's the one thing, i just find it really interesting that a lot of analysts, a lot of strategists are very dismissive of that, because it's different this time, if you will, and i just don't know -- we've already seen what's going on in commercial

real estate. there are some defaults. if you look at some of these publicly traded rates, they look like they're in 2009 i wonder why there's not more focus on slower growth apollo, one of them, saying, they think there's a hard landing coming if there's a hard landing coming, that comes with defaults >> no, you're right. we're not in the hard landing camp, but if somebody is in the hard landing camp, where unemployment at worst in a hard landing reaches 8% or 9%, you know, real g dp contracts over 2%, then the banks are really going to have issues with credit with that being said, if we are in a soft or shallow recession, we are starting from such a strong base that yes, there will be higher credit costs this year we have factored upwards of 100% increase in credit costs this year now, granted, 2022 was relatively low, but i point out on the commercial real estate side, when you look at that more

specifically, the biggest banks have not that -- the exposure is not that material, unlike it was in 1990, when commercial real estate was a serious problem for the banks. so, yes, there will be some issues, the real question is, is it a hard landing or a shallow recession, and the shallow recession, i think the banks manage through it without too much difficult >> gerard, i was just curious what the temperature of your clients are in terms of wanting to actually buy. i'm wondering if there's any sort of push-back, because so many parties, whether it be regulators, whether it be the analyst community, whether it be the ratings agencies completely missed what was on the books of silicon valley bank, of signature, and i wonder if there's any doubt about analysis that's being done on wall street, if there's an ement of, we still don't really know what the next thing is going to be, or, we don't have a grasp of the situation. >> it's a fair question. and i would say the unknown that was not expected by myself or, i

think, most of us, was to see a deposit run accelerate so fast through social media and through twitter. that is what accelerated the deposit run, which now we have to maybe take into account but what's interesting, too, is that as we go forward, asking, you know, investors, how do they want to position themselves, in talking to our clients, the investors that have been exposed to banks and have suffered here, of course, they are a little his tanlt or reticent to get back in, but the investors that didn't have any bank exposure, they're looking very hard and very eager, when do i jump in? because they seek, as you guys mentioned, you look at past cycles, when the stocks hit bottom, on average, they go up 75% to 90% we didn't fall as much this time, maybe not go up as much, but once we get through the storm, it could be an interesting time to own banks. >> gerard, thank you so much good to see you. gerard cassidy of rbc. >> thank you. another unknown, really quick, though, i mean, look what

happened with ubs and credit suisse you have debt that was wiped out, 17 billion, for people that thought they were in a different instrument so, that's the kind of a thing that we just don't know and this is one of the 30 most important banks. so are these money center banks. >> karen >> well, i do own banks, is that the question >> well, if there's an element of unknown because of the additional tier one, you know, bonds that are out there that got wiped out, you think -- you think you're in line ahead of equity holders, and you're not, as it turns out. >> well, i don't know if we have those securities here, so, i don't own any foreign banks. i think --jpmorgan, bank of america, morgan stanley i think that that's where i want to be in the banking seconder to >> will they be bigger >> yes >> will they be bigger through acquisitions >> well, deposits are making

them bigger. >> and more regulated. more people grabbing onto them for sure. all right, coming up, foot locker gets kicked shares more than giving back a big gain so, what had investors getting off on the wrong foot? first, more tech layoffs amazon cutting nearly 10,000 more jobs. what it says about the strength of the jobs market and the tech sack or sector, when "fast money" returns. of us. learn more at getrefunds.com.

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welcome back to "fast money. amazon extending its job cuts. planning to lay off another 9,000 workers, adding to the 18,000 payroll reductions that began in november. >> hey, mel. amazon taking a page from meta's book andy jassy in that announcement, he said, some may ask why we didn't announce these role reductions, the short answer is not all the teams were done with their analyses in the late fall. which begs the question, could we see more layoffs from some of the other big tech companies, like alphabet, which many investors said should be cutting more, because of the enormous hiring that many of the big tech companies did during the pandemic look at this meta and amazon hired the most, amazon more than doubling its work force remember that the jobs that have

been cut so far are corporate jobs i want to point to aws growth. it was interesting that some of the cuts took place in aws, the cloud computing business, as well as advertising. these are high margin businesses but you can see here that aws growth has been decelerating that's expected to fall into the low teens later this year. back to you. >> thank you so much dan, you think this continues? >> yeah, i think she just made a really good point. these are kind of white collar jobs so, they really grew in a lot of their logistics and delivery and all that sort of stuff. i think the fact you're seeing them in aws is concerning. i think it just kind of is an acknowledgement that this is going to be the slowest growth for aws, probably ever, in the 15-year existence, in the teens. that being said, they still have, i think, a great deal of market share and i think there's a lot of, you know -- i think they are more exposed to small, medium-sized businesses, and if

we go into a recession, a lot of the tech companies that might have a difficult time in that sort of environment, then they probably lose some of that business and if they were to have, like, low, like, high single digit growth in aws, that would be not great for the story. >> julie >> yeah, i mean, if you think just about amazon, they've added something like 800,000 jobs since the pandemic, so, it pales in comparison to what people are starting to cut now, but front line workers are still pretty critical, and we can't fill those jobs at all. so, i think that employment remains very, very stable. the white collar workers, you know, i think of any business that has four and five social media managers, those are getting consolidated down to one. and that's where that mid level tier of employment is going to feel the biggest hit and you have to worry about amazon's business, right because so much of the consumer softening is probably going to impact them, at the same time as aws is starting to soften, as

well >> i think last week we talked two nights about a flight to fame that we were seeing in the markets with -- >> flight to -- >> oh, because it's meta now >> sounds awful. >> whatever it is, you know what i'm talking about. what do you think? >> is the flight over? the flight is not to amazon. the sentiment is as bad as i've seen it in five years. and i look at the cash burn there, it burned $22 billion over the last couple years i think that's a reason to buy the stock. i mean, it's underperformed by 60% over the last couple years >> yeah, i agree the cash burn is self-inflicted, voluntary, then they could absolutely -- they could absolutely slow that down. i do think this run is a little long in the tooth. i did tell some upside calls -- i'm hanging onto that, and meta, though i wouldn't be surprised if they pulled back some >> there is a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. one foot out the door, the

other in red shares of foot locker dropping after its latest earnings report it's time to lace up we're trading the retailer, next. plus, gearing up for what could be the biggest fed decision of the year investors waiting with baited breath on what the central bank will do next and one major bank is calling for a pause. how all the banking turmoil factors into their move. you're watching "fast money. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. 'rba rhtft ts.wee ckig aerhi i fastest reliable network. you choo advanced sey for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™.

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rallying 11% in the day, but finishing the session down 5.5%. the retailer flaunting a renewed relationship with nike, but saying sales for the current year would be down 3.5% to 5.5%. fl is the fl in flambe >> it s. >> what a wild day for foot locker and first republic. and yet very different stories so, foot locker, the earnings for last quarter, which they delayed to coincide with the investor day were good, that was good the problem was, they had a lot of talk about how they're transforming this company, and it's expensive i think they're doing the right things they are closing a lot of stores couple hundred stores that are in b and c malls, and they are opening another couple of hundred stores that are bigger, that are in b and a malls and off-mall locations that's going to cost them a lot of money they're closing some -- they've closed some european stores already. but i think that it's a real

sort of reset by mary. she thinks their loyalty program is way underutilized they have a lot of potential there. she is a loyalty program master, so, i'm very interested to see what they can do there they feel like they have a lot of -- they can change their mix from more omni channel they have a lot of things that they laid out. it's going to cost them a lot of money to do it their earnings this year aren't going to be great. i think that the guidance was a little disappointing in where they could get to. putting all that together, i think there was a sandbag there, why not, if you're the new ceo and this is your, you know, big coming out party, why put the bar too high so, i have a lot of faith in her. i think we're going to see very mixed to, i don't know, some negative, some positive from the analysts it probably will trade down tomorrow >> make you feel better about nike and dtc >> nike, dtc, they call it their

revitalized relationship with nike, i thought mary dillon spoke very positively about the entire sneaker market, which dan singlehandedly probably keeps all these people in business nice sleds but i -- i worry about the multiple we're willing to pay for nike that, to me, in the short run for a company i've owned forever and i love, i just don't love it at these prices. so, that's something you have to be watchful for tomorrow >> be sure to catch jim cramer's exclusive interview with mary dillon, that is tomorrow night on "mad money" right here on cnbc. coming up on "fast," crew conundrum. prices dropping to the 64 buck mark before rebounding stick around to think why one of the traders think energy is totally mispriced. and is a time-out on the table? why the fed needs to take a step back at this week's meeting, according to our guest that's coming up when "fast money" returns. catch the "fast money" podcast any time, anywhere follow today on your favorite

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets today. a relief rally for stocks to kick off the week. the dow jumping 382 points

the s&p climb nearly 1% and the nasdaq trailing, still up nearly half a percent oil prices rebounding after hitting their lowest levels since 2021 crude dropping to 64 bucks a barrel before bouncing energy still the worst-performing sector this year wow, tim >> to me, this is just inconsistency in markets and i think we've seen over the last couple days, a lot of stocks have behaved like they were regional banks. oil has behaved that way, too. i just think you -- oil is overdone, or you should be massively selling. i should be selling recession equities which i don't think you should be doing so, by default, do i say go buy oil? well, i think if you look at both china reopening, which second half of '23 is really when we're going to see the demand there's been no grdowngrades in gdp. but oil is way overdone and more importantly, oil equities don't want $100 oil, folks they don't want 65, but i think we're getting back to 80

>> meantime, the all-important fed decision just two days away. our next guest wants the fed to end the rate hikes peter bookbar is the chief investment officer at cnbc c contr contributor. interesting to see how quickly one people went from one side of the boat, 50, to the other side of the boat, which is either pause or 25. there is a case, though, to be made, in theory, you know, that regulators have done so much to backstop the financial system, whether it be here in the united states or globally now, given the events over the weekend, that that enables the fed to keep, you know, pounding at inflation and go ahead with the rate hikes >> i think that's what they're going to do. and it will be 25 and while powell's not going to use the word pause, he's going to basically imply a pause. and that they'll take a step back and see how things play out. i think from a risk management standpoint, they should be doing nothing. the world has changed. the world has changed a lot, just over the past couple weeks. and the fed needs to really

start thinking about how things unfold from here so, before the bank turmoil over the last couple weeks, we've seen the tightest lending standards, not including covid, in commercial industrial loans since 2009 the commercial industrial loan level in terms of amount outstanding up until the day before it totally unraveled with svb, it was no higher than december so, the economy is already in motion to the downside the fed should at least acknowledge that and they also have to keep in mind that just keeping rates at an elevated level for awhile is its own form of continued monetary tightening. >> peter, it's karen i agree with you about what he should do. i think is zero, but how -- what do you think is the data, since he's data dependent, that he would need to see for, let's say, further lending tightening or -- what other metrics would you look at that they could say,

all right, you know, we're starting to see this is pressuring inflation, as well, so we're headed in the right direction, we're stay paused >> well, unfortunately, a lot of the data he's going to look at is backward looking. we have to assume that at least small and medium-sized businesses are going to dramatically slow the extension of credit to their customers both households and businesses as they focus more on their balance sheet, they focus more on dealing with their -- any bad marks they have. they deal with potentially raising deposit rates to stem the outflow of deposits. if you are a loan officer, you're now interested in not making mistakes than making new loans. so, we have to assume where the economy is going to go from here, rather than them waiting for data that by the time they see it is going to be relatively old news >> peter, i read this in the book report, your note this morning, you just -- you mentioned the cni loans, the commercial industry loans and

specifically as it relates to commercial real estate so, when you're talking about the exposure that a lot of the regional banks have to those sorts of lending, like, help us quantify what that means for the com economy right here you mentioned so many things does it really almost ensure that if standards are going to get that much tighter, that we will have a greater slowdown, so, it's just amazing, we had gerard cassidy on before and he's not in the hard landing camp these guys are still in the soft landing camp, i just don't know how that happens >> so, about 70% of commercial real estate lending comes from small and medium-sized banks and you can only imagine what they're thinking now, in terms of extending new loans that are coming due this year, or the keys that are being handed back to them by office owners that don't want to own the property well, you can be sure banks don't want the keys back, either they would love to see a borrower continuing to pay, because what is a bank going to

do with this office building and going into the last couple weeks prior to this, banks were already sort of freezing their participation in commercial loans. and a lot of the commercial loans that were taking place were from nonbank lenders. and they're going to be charging double digits to commercial real estate borrowers in terms of interest rates >> so, peter, we don't often get an outright, you know, wbuy this or sell this from you, but would you say that there's more downside for regional banks at this point >> so, i think the -- the risk of potential delusion is certainly going to be important on the equity side, but a lot of thiesseese banks have gotten rey beaten up. i think there's going to be some value to be had at some point. and even the biggest banks, we know that they're going to be a beneficiary of how this plays out, but i think sort of the super regionals is where investors need to look at at

some point but we know it's good to buy the banks when they're trading around book value. over the next coming quarters, there's a good chance that book value starts to fall, as banks remark a lot of their assets, but anything a good bank that's trading at book value or less is going to be attractive at some point. >> peter, always great to get your take, thank you >> thank you, melissa. >> does it matter -- of course it matters if the fed does 25 and then sort of says, enough, or the fed does nothing and keeps a hawkish tilt, does that nuance matter? >> the nuance is all that matters. i think the fed needs to keep people on their toes and i think they're going to try to do that. i think -- the most important mandate is left is certainly inflation. i just -- i look back to where we are, we're pricing, 75, 80 bips by the way, rick told us not to take that as gospel.

he's absolutely right. they move all over the place, but that's where positioning is right now. and that's where that nuance is important. >> is a pause, julie, going to cause panic? oh, my gosh, we don't have a good handle on it and we have to stop >> it's hard to say, right that's how i would interpret it. i would interpret it as pretty negative and they have access to some of the data that we don't as far as what's really under the hood at some of these banks. and the other thing concerns me that recessions are deeper and harder to get out of, right, because there's no lending that's really happening. and, you know, we can sit here and say, look, this isn't being triggered by quality credit, but we have to think about 0% interest rates for more than a decade, and we think there's going to be no repercussions we think all that credit quality is phenomenal? i worry about that longer term so, i think if they're at zero, to me, that signals, oh, maybe

there's more that we don't really understand that could be coming down the pike >> 100%. i think it's ludicrous to think that the major money center banks don't have similar mismatches, as far as maturities you say no >> i say no. >> i will belt you -- guaranteed >> split screen. split them up, come on >> since you've been in this business, when there's free money to be had, there's a spread, a trade, they all do it. >> there we go all right. >> they all do it. and all of thiessen banks -- >> i don't -- going to be forced to be really transparent, ceos who are on speed dial with the president and the treasury, there's no -- >> on speed dial with whoever doesn't mean they're taking duration risk. i don't know why you equate those two things they're irrelevant to me look at the 10k, you'll have some knowledge >> i think there's duration -- >> i don't think there's duration anywhere remotely close to what you're saying.

if you look at svbs books, the ten-year plus duration risk there, some of which is mortgage-backed securities, which we though the duration gets longer and tim talked about that a week or two ago, it's nowhere remotely close to what jpmorgan's is, and if you look at jpmorgan's deposits and look what's coming in, look at their 10k. >> let's see what the -- >> we know from the fdic chairman that at the end of 2022, unrealized losses were $620 billion >> yes >> is it fair to say it's $620 billion is not just silicon valley bank and signature bank >> correct but what is the denominator of that, right? and rates have moved the other way since then, and if you -- the held to maturity, the change at jpmorgan would actually be the smallest, pretty small on an absolute basis, and way smaller than all of the other -- >> i would agree, except that it's not spread across banks it is concentrated and we've

seen what just a couple of blowouts can do -- >> what is the denominator of assets >> okay. >> at least 11 trillion, if you are saying it's just -- >> but that didn't help. >> but you are also saying no hedge. no hedge >> if they had -- >> that is not correct. >> if they hedge, though, it's my understanding, if they hedge the books, they have to take those marks. >> you're talking about -- >> might not have taken the marks just yet, because they haven't had a run on their assets that's my point. if anything, they've taken in a lot more assets. so -- >> they've taken a lot more assets right now, what are just deposits and cash. >> we could have been arguing the same wail in mid-march 2008 what was going on with the run that was, you know, and we could have been saying no, all the other peers were not doing some of the same stuff, did not have the same exposure. >> can i be -- >> are you going -- >> can i be switzerland? switzerland is there to protect their banking sector

i just think there's two points being made i'll echo your -- most important p point of the day, is that credit is still out there credit is lurking. karen's point is very clear. very different balance sheets, very different approach to their lending business, and not even close in terms of the risk they're not in the business to take that kind of risk, so -- welcome to the european union. >> yes >> it's funny you say that, because a bank like jpmorgan ha made tremendous inroads in vinnestment banking. how do they do that? they do that with a whole lost of other products and services the same business model that silicon value bea bank was in to win a lot of the same mandates and customers. so, what i'm saying is, just don't know we don't know. and i don't know, it just doesn't seem that compelling to me >> we have to go >> all right >> just getting going. >> thank you for playing, switzerland. >> there's a role for us in the world. coming up, one option trader making a big bet that all the

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47% today, despite sources telling cnbc jpmorgan is mike khouw has the action. >> the business est this week. we saw over 68,000 of those trading for 40 cents buyers of those puts are either putting or edging against much more bad news for the stock by the end of the week. >> all right, thank you, mike. for more options action, tune into the full show, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, auto inventory on the rise what does that mean for car sto stocks we're taking a trip to the car lot. that's next on "fast money."

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welcome back to "fast money. automakers have been ramping up production this year and that's got new vehicle lots filling up. will this prompt dealers to up incentives to get their inventories moving let's bring in phil lebeau for more on this phil >> melissa, we are at a bit of a

crossroads for the auto industry, as they edge back towards normal and normal being pre-pandemic, pre-supply chain chip shortages. let me show you the numbers again. the inventory of new vehicles, and we're talking about retail new vehicles, what we see at dealerships, it's 41 days supply up 49% compared to july, when it hit its low point of 26-da, acc. and from their perspective, a normal market would be 60 to 70-day supply. at the same time, look at this chart. this says it all in terms of what people are paying at the dealership average transaction price, it pulled back a little bit in february, we'll see what we get for march, but it's still darn close to an all-time high at just under $49,000 the incentive, meanwhile, has moved up, highest level it's been in a year, up to $1,474 per vehicle. which creates an interesting situation for the automakers and we're talking about gm,

ford, toyota, the guys who are still building a lot of internal combustion engine vehicles. what happens if we continue to see this inventory move higher this is an interest with a bad track record of showing discipline because all it takes is one or two automakers to say, keep pumping, keep moving the metal and then you see the incentives move higher. for the dealers, it's an interesting time they still have fairly limited inve inventory, but that is expected to change this summer. i'll be curious to see what happens over the next couple of months for the traditional automakers, because two years ago, nobody was talking about inventory. you know what they were talking about? ev investment. we're going to be in evs by '25. this is the money we'll be making that is still an important story, but you can't forget the business >> phil, thank you phil lebeau. >> you bet. up next, final trades.

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just talking to phil about the rising inventories and perhaps seeing incentives go

higher, we've seen this before julie, what do you think >> yeah, i mean, i think we're going to continue, right and if we are still at a place where inventory days are shorter than they have been historically, i'm a big believer in regregs to the mean i don't think we're going to see it looking better any time soon. >> all right, it's time for the final trade. we'll go back to julie >> you know, big fan of durable earning, with all of the tumult, so, ansys is a company, software business, reliable >> tim >> well, in terms of reversion to the mean, google to the triple qs or the nasdaq 100, it's breaking out, underperformed significantly, now above the 200. >> chairwoman? >> yes so, if hard landing, soft landing, whatever, there's some kind of landing, recession, i think the consumer spends and tjx may be where they're going to do it >> a lot of bargains there

>> my mom loves tjmaxx >> i'm a seller of the xlf that may be a surprise tow >> all right, thank you so much for watching "fast money." see you back tomorrow. in the meantime, do not go anywhere a cnbc special, "taking stock" with jon fortt starting right now. welcome to the cnbc special. i'm jon fortt. joe parris offtonight. a relief rally to start the week, as bank stocks bounced and the major averages followed in super the dow jones, 382 points. the s&p, climbing nearly 1% for the nasdaq, trailing behind but not nearly 1/2%, as