that's all for this edition of dateline. i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing] welcome to the third and final hour of "squawk box" here in europe. equity markets are open right now. welcome to our viewers stateside. futures have been marching higher suggesting we will pick up where we left off in the green. investors are looking at the forced consolidation of swiss banks. ubs takeover of credit suisse started negative on monday before green started to

materialize in the banks u.s. is important as well with stronger ranges on the dow and nasdaq as we get going this morning, you see it is a start across the board chasing green. .16% on the stoxx 600. indices gained 1% as they closed out trade. stronger markets in the mix namely italy and france. let's get into the sector trade and see where some of the upside is falling at this stage it is the banks as investors get back into the names which sold off aggressively food and drink trading positively up over .10%. telco is higher trade. up .25%. utilities and chemicals.

household goods with gains with electrolux leading the charge higher oil and gas has been a punishing trade for the sector energy getting some traction now at .16% for the stocks autos have picked up thereomalies here with the semiconductors we are seeing improvement in the space and numbers on regist registrations. basic resources and construction at 1% in the green clearly concentration and focus of financials. that is where ubs is contained it is the top performing stock up 3%. banking names at the top to get a 3.8% santander up 3% in the overall

basket being 3% higher as well let's look at the overall indices. we are trading close to 7450 on the ftse 100 almost 1% pop from yesterday the 7450 level from yesterday is trading down from the week of the indivisible -- index it is a bounce out pacing dax and germany and across with gains on italian and spanish stock markets out pacing zurich stocks up .18% elsewhere, jpmorgan chase's

ceo jamie dimon is leading talks with wall street executives on the plan to stabilize first republic the financial sometimes reported u.s. banks are considering making investments in the lender such as converting some or all of the $30 billion of deposits made last week into a capital infusion meanwhile, cnbc learned that jpmorgan chase is advertising first republic on the capital raise or sale of the bank. this is the frankfurt listing at 8.4% higher. a different trade from yesterday. we are seeing upside early in europe today let's look elsewhere around ubs. the trade is 3% higher credit suisse with bond holders considering legal action after the takeover of the tier 1 bonds being written down holders of the bonds will get

nothing and shareholders, who usually rank below bondholders, in terms of who gets paid when the bank collapses, they will receive $3.2 billion a quick look at ubs. up less than 3%. not holding all of the upper gains. you are seeing mostly a positive trade. deutsche bank is up 3% out pacing commerz bank. soc gen is up 4% unicredit up 4%. let's get to joumanna for more she has been looking through the treatment of the cocoa and legal challenges and just the blowback of ubs >> reporter: what a difference

24 hours makes this time 24 hours ago exactly, we were concerned of the impact the deal on the weekend would have with the sector we had a very adverse reaction ubs was down 10% and ended up in the green by the end of the day. today is a positive sign that the european banking sector as a whole is starting off with the more positive footing. investors are, perhaps, less concerned than we thought about the possibility of some contagion risk they are coming around to the view over what happened with credit suisse and this is the word we have been using a lot is idiosyncratic. we have had issues across the pond it is unknown what will happen in the u.s. with what happened here in europe

the read across is investors are parking to one side what happened at the moment overnight, we had moody's and s&p place the ubs outlook on negative watch because of the execution risk with the complexity and duration of the deal it will be years before we see synergies come through the ubs stock is rallying so much is because at the end of the day, they got a bargain. they managed to buy the rival for $3 billion more or less in equity value around $45 billion and deposits and assets of $600 billion. a good deal as far as ubs is concerned. we have to see how though process is going take place. in one bit on the a-t-1 bondholders. that was a concern for the

markets. we had the markets say within the jurisdictions, the seniority will be respected and the equities and common equity shareholders will be the first loss absorbing before bondholders get impacted which is not happened in the weekend with the credit suisse acquisition. that was one thing that ran through the market we hear legal cases coming through on the exposure to the a-t-1 debt the total size of the market is $100 billion in ig terms that is a drop in the ocean compared to the total size of the universe we are talking 4 trillion worth. it is significant for anyone who holds credit suisse or was

holding credit suisse at-1 debt. reaction yesterday was to brush it off >> joumanna, thank you for breaking down that story for us. let's have a look at the u.s. banks in frankfurt. rallying 1.6% u.s. futures aas the fed gets going on the meeting we see upbeat action not huge signals at this stage it suggests more green over what we saw yesterday. >> focus now on what happens next and the fed does and the bank of england does eric nelson is with wells fargo securities thank you for being patient with us the most important thing coming out of the fed this week may not

be the rate decision, but the people who are finally saying we got the pivot. i'm not sure that will happen. i think the sep could be a source of disappointment to many. >> the fed is not ready to call the hike cycle to be over. we expect more rate hikes going forward. we could get a surprise with the s&p. let's talk about qt. >> as opposed to the qe we just had? >> sure. then the fed could be keen given what is happening in funding markets to dial back the pace of qt that could not be easing, but throwing a bit of a bone to those waiting for a pivot. >> they blinked. we understand why they blinked in fact, we are still going through decline in first

republic they blinked you talk about qt. it was obliterated in the last two weeks. >> it is important to provide liquidity which is a fancy word for easing, but the actual nature of what they have done is different. think about it in the context of, say, the ltro and ecb ten years ago. this liquidity can roll off quicker than qe. that qe that we saw in 2020 or 2010, that tends to linger that liquidity lingers for a long time. this is quite different. >> all right what does it mean for the asset class mix that our audience is interested in? >> let's talk about rates and dollar i think from the rate standpoint, the initial reaction to a pause from the fed is obviously rates lower. i think as we see things start to heal from that fed pause and we see asset lasts recover a little bit, we see rates come back because the likelihood of

the fed going out and hiking again or pausing for longer than expected is high i think that, from the broad standpoint, the dollar will weaken on the back of the pause. probably continue to weaken as the ecb will do more than the fed. overall, we are looking for a risk on the back of the fed pause. >> we obviously had risk aversion related to the serious of the banking events. are we done in your opinion? it is pretty hard to give a definitive answer on this one. how much more is out there that we are not aware of at this point? what are the impacts of the property market? what about collapses with portfolios and property debt >> as we were chatting earlier, none of this is lineal i could see a couple of weeks or months of stability. we start to see the tightening take hold that we have seen, the

tightening of lending and portfolio companies feeling more stress and these things take time to play out there are more risks lurking out there. the question is when do they man manifest >> erik, is the fed too fixated on the wage price spiral it is a backward indicator amazon laying off 9,000 workers. this is stretched across to the banking system and surely there will be concerns around the tightness of credit and what it means for hiring from here my question is whether we have a fed that is too backward looking now. >> i'm glad you brought up wages. if you look at the average earnings numbers and an last sio the seven job reports, they are

trending lower if the fed wants to justify a pause, they can look at the wage numbers. you see the fed focused on the housing numbers and that is another way to talk about wages. you make the point of forward looking. that is what the financial episode is turning the fed toward which is looking forward. reality is these things act with a lag and the fed is more cautious going forward about trying to push on the basises of spot inflation like they have in the past. >> just put the path out mefrom here how is the market expectation based on recent events with the banks? >> the rate move and the move in rate expectations have been driven by shocks and things where you see funds effectively wiped out. i think what is important to

focus on is what is priced versus what happens i think we see more rate cuts get priced out as the fed pauses the fed will cut this year maybe a q3 or q4 story, but those rate cut expectations will be vindicated with the tightening conditions we have seen. >> how useful are the oil prices at the moment and trying to understand the market's attitude toward growth going forward? give us your sense of commodities. >> the signal from oil prices, i don't want to say is useless, but not good we have seen a lot of the funds wiped out like i mentioned which were positioning higher prices what strikes me is oil prices for a long time in the last 20 or 30 years is demand driven vary able. as we hehe see more supply come

into the picture, you will see prices rise into recession during the first few months of recession as in 2008 we are expecting oil prices to recover even if we slip in recession. that could be a paradigm shift >> erik nelson, thank you. strategist from wells fargo securities karen. let's go back to the wall and look at the drinks companies. penrod shares agreed to buy a stake in a u.s. whiskey brand skrewball. it sold over 500,000 cases afternoon year it is -- cases last year it is a fast moving company in

the industry there has been portfolio management which has seen businesses sell certain brands at this point. as you can see, now acquiring some and movement on the stock european car registrations rose in february according to data from the euro auto association. electric vehicles took a share of the market making up over 12% of all monthly car sales in eu countries and renault is up 2.4% slightly out pacing mercedes-benz which is 2% in the green. let's push on to what we see in the stock today here. it is 2% higher. it raised investment outlook at rwe topping 4.4 billion euro the biggest utility in germany said profit is 3.6 and 4.2 billion euro we will discuss more with the

cfo michael muller that interview happens at 11:30 cet. steve. coming up on this show, technology stocks out perform as banking fears ripple through wall street. we are live at the digital symposium. that's coming up next.

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quick look at amazon in retreat. 1.25% down amazon will layoff 9,000 staff in the coming weeks as well as 18,000 job cuts. it will hit the commputing and h and streaming service twitch the tech sector faces ongoing uncertainty with the turmoil sparked by the crypto

bank silvergate and silicon valley bank. the crisis is the back drop for the goldman sachs symposium here in london where attendees are discussing a.i. and digital assets let's get to arjun the question i have is will we see further changes with the profile with the companies as the pressure we see on the credit side of the business? >> the question really is how do the businesses operate going forward? do we expect to see more job cuts and more belt tightening and will the companies be able to raise funding those are the questions i want to address with the cto and partner at lakestar. steven, let's talk about the silicon valley bank collapse i heard many people say this is going to have ramifications for years to come. where are you seeing the immediate impact and some longer-term impact with funding

to startups and health of the ecosystem? >> i think we want to have a stable banking system. that confidence has been lost a bit at the moment. in the short-term, getting that confidence back is critically important to ensuring funding starts flowing and goes back into the startups. people will retreat and take a pause and wait and see the effects well be some startups may not receive the funding they believe is necessary. >> do you expect to see that lead to startups going out of business is that widespread >> i think startups have been resi resilient. covid taught us good fiscal responsibility with cash flow management what they will do is tighten their belt further that will reduce the opportunity for them to break into new markets where that confidence hasn't been hit. >> over that 72 hours after the

collapse of silicon valley bank, what were you doing and telling your portfolio companies there were funds advising to yank money from svb. >> we were speaking to our founders trying to figure out the exposure to svb. some of the company's had assets locked up in svb, the ramification is it will be immediately felt monday morning, but others had cash flow to make payroll difficult in the coming days i think one thing we ask is to take a pause over the weekend and reflect and let's see what happens with the fdic and bank of england and the actions that the governments were taking and move from there. >> you took more of a wait-and-see approach.

others were telling staff to pull their money out and some said this was a vc created event. this could have been avoided if there was a pause as you have taken. is that a fair assessment? >> i think founders are smart people they sit with significant cash in the bank. they wake up on friday morning or thursday night and went to understand it. ti sometimes we are behind the emotion and decisions our founders are taking. i think there were some vcs giving advice and we were taking the approach of waiting and speaking to understand the concerns >> lakeare sstar is heavily invd in the european scene. is there a reason to be optimistic after 2022 with the year with funding drop and down rounds for companies

>> i think europe has a unique place in the global economy. more than ever before, we have talent coming through and people who started or worked for great founders the position of europe and need for european startups to be healthy and fit for purpose and get on to the global stage is more than ever with the geopolitical stage around the world. >> how are you advising your portfolio companies to approach businesses this year we send tens of thousands of layoffs at the largest technology companies of the world. particularly in the u.s. as you look at your companies you advise, are you asking to tighten? >> our founders are smart individuals. they learned through covid they need to tighten their best proactively. on the main, we haven't had to go around and dictate to our companies that they need to do layoffs or anything about cost

reduction exercises. founders are resilient bunch they know the economy is tough right now. they know they need to make good decisions to keep their best employees and grow businesses in an effective way and no one can predict in 12 months it is better to make decisions today than on the strategy of hope >> from the conversations you have with the portfolio companies, what is it like is the market still shut to tech ipos if so, when do you expect it to open >> i think it will not be as many ipos this year as other analysts were hoping our view is it will open the next two-to-three years in the more meaningful way. our companies reaching that point where they have been ready in 2024 and 2025 our advice is to continue to

grow and ready yourself for public markets if it takes another year, you got yourself in a great place. you have the checks and balances and reporting up to scratch. why not be ready >> stephen, thank you for the insight into the world of european tech. that was stephen nundy cto at lakestar. back to you, geoff >> arjun, thank you. on the programming note, our colleagues will speak with cathie wood. that is later today at 1500 cet. before that, the french government narrowly survives a no confidence vote in parliament 'rinar nt. wee pisex it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you can have everything you need

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wedding with ubs as the banks index tops the stoxx 600 credit suisse bond holders consider legal action after the swiss government decision to wipe out all holders of the at-1 debt and ubs sees the credit cut to negative by moody's. and jamie dimon spearheads efforts to bring the lender of first republic stable. and the prime minister in france tells lawmakers the program is crucial for france's economic well being. >> translator: projecting the compromise is debt and weakening our pay as we go system.

european stocks have been trading for over half an hour. we are bouncing toward the higher end of the trading range. 1.25% on the stoxx 600 out pacing gains from yesterday. a big gain in some of the big banks and financials hit in the recent session around banking contagion fears. and what we are seeing is stronger bounce in the backs and financials we look at the individual markets. we see across the board sectors gaining with the defensive names being somewhat left behind, but modest range to the upside against areas with the pain in recent trades. 2.8% on banks. that claw back is taking place oil and gas is plummeting and

taking energy stocks with it slight rebound at 2.1% higher. autos moving on the boards as we see car registrations coming in solid for the month. let's look at banks here unicredit near 5% to the upside. commerz bank in germany and santander in spain and credit suisse is down with the consolidation. i'm not sure how much we are looking at the stock price it is weaker trade the european banks more broadly. you see the mix of trade ubs is the better performer this morning. you have solid gains and other global banks barclays up 4% unicredit is 5% in the green santander up 4.1 bnp up 4% in the green the trade with deutsche bank is 3.6. geoff. thank you.

the french government has narrowly survived no confidence vote in parliament over controversial pension refrefors. 278 voted in favor of it it is now considered adopted and that sparked protests in paris last night let's get to charlotte now what is next on the move for those who oppose it implemented? >> reporter: good morning. it is unlikely they will reject all together they may offer tweaks. in a sense, the pension reform is adopted as you said, it was narrower than expected. 278 mps voting in favor of the

no confidence vote a tighter vote than expected consider it adopted. that means the age from september of 2023 validates the age going up from 62 to 64 it will reach 64 by 2030 geoff, what now? the prime minister has to survive the vote for how long the result was so tight and we hear she will not go just yet. maybe the president will open a new chapter in the future. by summer, maybe have a new pm in place certainly this was a political car crash. maybe it is time for a reshuffle in the next three months and we saw the spontaneous protest last night

they all want to continue with the movement and strike. the rubbish piling up in the street and we are starting to see fuel shortages because of the blocks of refineries in the past few days. finally, we heard just this morning that emmanuel macron will be speaking now the pa parliament process has been finished he will speak tomorrow at lunchtime to address the issues and apiece the mood in the country. his intervention will be crucial over what happens next some say it will fizzle out of the movement that the policy has been adopted really the next few days are crucial and how things will go thursday with the strike and what could come for the next few steps. guys >> charlotte, what does this

mean for the economy there were concerns the longer this goes on, the longer economic impact on france. >> reporter: karen, that is a question transport in paris was interpreted and air traffic in the country and it is a festival for the rats we have seen starting in the south of france with fuel shortages. you remember we had some of the issues and this could carry on and the movement gets tougher like the unions and still a big follow-up, there could be issues and impact on the economy. we have not seen an impact yesterday. if the movement was to get tougher and longer, there could be an impact going forward yesterday, the economy is growing at 0.6% instead of 0.3%.

more positivity, but a lot of e unknown given the movement in the next few weeks >> scharlotte, thank you. xi jinping praised vladimir putin's leadership while visiting in moscow this is the first part of the xi three-day state visit to russia as they look to deepen economic and political ties xi's trip, his first since securing the third term, comes after the international criminal court issued an arrest warrant last friday accusing putin of war crimes for deporting children from ukraine. >> what is in it for xi? i know what is in it for putin he wants economic and military ties he would love military support from xi. whether it comes is remaining to be seen. what is in it for xi

have economic ties with russia without the public show of support. i don't know i'm trying to find out what his angle is in the game >> my quick take is there are a number of interests aligning around this. xi wants to look more statesmanlike. after strutting in the middle east facilitating a deal there, he would like to believe he can have more influence in helping c coreograph that for the chinese economy. anything that shows alignment against the west and against the united states helps with the other longer term operative of reuniting taiwan with china.

i think this -- xi will see this as a no-lose opportunity to visit putin and appear st statesmanlike and the one thing everybody is concerned about is the chinese start to provide military support in significant scale for the russian war effort here xi must also be quite pleased to see nato military capability constantly being run down as nato and the americans have to keep supplying the ukrainians. >> i hate to point out, that is apparent to victory. the poles updated their scale and military spending. australians are upgrading. the brits got through something. mr. wallace got something through in the budget that many thought he would not get through

which is increase in defense spending this is in australia, poland and united kingdom and western alliance i hear what you say about short-term munitions, but the west is awake to the threat of taiwan and chinese or more awake to it and re-mill tarremilitari. >> we are talking about the future of commerce for china the americans and west have forced them down the path of bulking up on technology here not able to access chips that they have been buying from the west and american companies supplying with chips you see the noose tighten. you see the technology they will invest to come up with that advanced technology who will they sell to? it does benefit xi and china to

cast some doubt on the west and strategy in the geopolitical event and bolster ties with other countries that may or may not be akin to that technology from europe to asia. it will be countries in that part of the world as well. 20 or 30-year lens. >> let me lead this next as well i think just to take this conversation forward and we understand lines of allegiance are drawn, but deepened. it is very interesting that you got one asian leader who is in russia and another asian leader on the other side of the ledger, one might suggest, now in ukraine. japanese prime minister is visiting the ukrainian president

volodymyr zelenskyy today. boarding a train in poland he is expected to discuss support for ukraine and hold talks with the polish counterpart before returning to japan on thursday. so why the japanese and ukraine? back to that conversation about people are being forced to pick sides in this discussion it seems. >> and the leader who wasn't gone there yet pressure to show that support and actually have feet on the ground there >> the japanese still getting energy >> that is a very interesting point. it has been owned by so many different countries over the years. >> they get a pass on getting product from the agean >> the waters are so fertile

with the product and seafood into japan. we will move on. coming up, is it time to pause or not to pause? the officials are meeting today and they face the toughest decision in years as a financial crisis looms we will discuss next shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free

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we're back ecb president christine lagarde has said the recent turmoil could help dampen demand and reduce inflation doing the work that would otherwise be done by monetary policy lagarde said inflation alone would suggest more hikes than needed, but impact of market instability on demand would have to be taken into account in its forecast global borrowing enhanced seven-day dollar swaps

the joint effort from top central banks is meant to ease funding stress and cash flow amid the turmoil in the banking sector two swiss banks and one eurozone institution borrowing. the fed meeting kicks off today and facing a tough decision amid high inflation and lingering bank crisis. some investors and industry leaders are calling for a pause in rate hikes, the cme fed watch tool ses es -- sees a 75% hike of .25 let's get to our guest

this is where you should watch investors should pay attention to money market flows and bank reserves if these get too low, the fed is guaranteed to make a hard pivot. do you think that will happen, sir? good morning >> good morning. thank you. that is where you need to watch. if you look at the line in the sand for the fed for monetary policymakers in general is to understand the situation -- to take a step back, the fiscal response to covid created surge in demand and creating inflation now. to understand the problem the fed faces is where everybody focuses. there is the other issue of monetary policy from the gfc and covid, basically created surge in debt. that debt exists and has to be refinanced we live in a world where it has to happen. you need to have enough liquidity to stamp that role and for that to happen, credit

markets need to function properly most of the borrowing happens in the market if you see the markets start to break, and i don't hear a lot of people talking about this and we are not there yet, but if the fed sees that, it will back up in 2019, when the repo market went bananas, how quickly powell pivoted then they are dealing with a dilemma with inflation as we see it, we can argue how much liquidity is driven by regional banks in the u.s., but the fallout is putting pressure on that other issue that the fed has to deal with which is a lot of debt out there that needs to be refinanced. we are looking at a bigger cries. it is an interesting situation. >> by the time the colla

collateralized loan market happens, will it be too late for the fed to provide more liquidity and cut rates? >> that sis a tough question. if you look at excess bank reserves and money market flows and you see liquidity drive where the markets start having trouble, the fed is forced to act. if they start to see it, they will be forced to act. my general view is that if you look past everything that is happening right now and focus on liquidity in general, we have been in the drawdown cycle central banks tightening to fight inflation. that will turn up again. it will turn up because they have no choice i think when that does happen, the risk assets will do well investors need to -- it is a tough environment. we live in a world where you go from crisis to policy response to crisis. that's the water you have to navigate if you are an investor.

eventually, the fed will do a pivot to some degree that actually gets risk assets moving again. that is what people are not talking about when they focus on the here and now >> jeff, a lot of history of hiking to the down turn n. terms of what we are looking at this time, the economic cycle is different. the fed will hold before cutting. now a hike and potential cut later this year. a couple of guests said it could cut by the end of the year what is the purpose of hiking in. >> -- purpose of hiking? >> they have to pivot. i think what you can expect is 25 basis points. probably dovish language out of the fed. they will do the 25 bp if you look at the implied policy rate and fed fund future

market from march 8th to march 15th, the reversal and prior to the mess in the banks in the u.s., i think they were expecting 110 basis points of hikes to get to peak rate. now implying 35 and actually cuts later this year that turn around in market expectation speaks volume of what happened when silicon valley bank went down. you don't raise rates as quickly as the fed did without breaking a few things now they are in a tricky situation. there are reasons to be optimistic >> let's talk about being a short-term investor, jeff. you talked about leaning short shorting what at this point and for how long >> it depends on the strategy. if you are long short equity, you have a book you can develop and lean into that more. if you -- we do more broader

market short and index shorts that we think hedge our long portfolio. it depends on the investor strategy as we see all of the volatility, we are left fibuilding up our lg book at the same time, we realize there is short-term volatility we need to hedge you can play both sides of it. if you are not a short seller, i would say look to allocate more to risk as things get cheaper and messier. it is always a good idea even if you are allocated fully to the equity allocation, it doesn't mean you can't re-balance just because what you own now doesn't mean you won't have better opportunities four months from now paying attention to the opportunities that a crisis gives you. i forgot who said it franklin never let a good crisis go to

waste. when we see this, there will be a lot of money made on the other side just like a lot of money on the other side of covid. looking forward for that is how you do it. >> jeff, thank you for being with us. founder of thorpe capital. churchill? >> thanks for tuning in.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc globa global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." the capital infusion is doing nothing to help the stock which is hitting all-time lows. jay powell and the fed kickoff the policy meeting today. the central bank is past the