tv Squawk on the Street CNBC March 21, 2023 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
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seen in u.s. bank corp on the upside since april of 2020. almost a three-year record here for them here. i want to just show you something unusual. you see this volume, 15 million shares. that's an awful lot. it normally trades 13 million. it's only 11:30 in the afternoon. to give you an idea of how casey things were, on monday, we traded 206 million shares -- i'm sorry, on friday, towards the close, huge amount, 206 million. imagine this, we're talking about 15 times the normal volume that u.s. bank corp would see. overall, a lot more stability in financials, a lot more stability elsewhere in things like energy stocks, which are another big loser last week. just a little bit more normal in terms of the distribution of the bigger losers today. >> thank you very much for the check there. let's stay with the regional bank theme and take a look at
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shares of new york community banks. davidson upgrading that stock from hold to buy. the firm liking what they see after the fdic announced an agreement to sell signature bank assets and part of the loan portfolio to nydc. they think the deal with lower their deposit costs and diversify the loan portfolio overall. they're not the only ones out there bullish. joining wedbush, kbw who raised their rating on the stock yesterday. let's take a closer look at this with our own mike santoli. i guess there's a huge amount of attention, mike, being paid to this particular purchase of assets and loan portfolios because it might be a blueprint in case people are worried about whether or not regional banks can actually take on deposits and thrive in the aftermath. >> yeah. this is a neat and tidy one as well. i think that's the reason the street loves it, both because the cost to new york community is very manageable and complimentary in terms of the asset mix and deposit base, as
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you said. also valuation wise. i think people are on board with this idea, even right now it's trading around tangible book value of new york community, at least year-end. the dividend seems safe a cording to d.a. davidson. there's no real call here on whether overall credit conditions are going to be much better, whether new york commercial real estate, which there's still a lot of exposure, is going to be insulated from the pressure. it's more the math of this combination works really well. by the way, a lot of folks, as you know, didn't think signature had to be seized and sold the way it was. >> including bernie frank. >> who is on the board, right? >> but isn't signature a risky mix of signature and retail? >> yeah. i think the crypto stuff largely not considered to be core to what's going to be going on from here on out. yeah, mortgages -- but also a lot of commercial and industrial loans. it's kind of small/medium size business.
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again, it's the diversification. new york community has been rollup over the years. they bought smaller savings institutions and things like that. so, it just seems like it fits together well. and in a way kind of doesn't make it as much of a concentrated risk as it was before. >> those of us in the new york area have seen -- or heard the commercials about the six brands of banks. >> yeah, exactly. >> all right. so, let's turn now to a pair of upgrades overall on foot locker following their investor day. we'll start with the evercore call here. rating goes to outperform. the price target doubles to nearly 60 bucks a a share. looking at the strategy shift from sneaker drops and more lifestyle type brands. similar story for analysts at citi, bullish on ceo mary dylan and her move away from malls, taking the stock to buy rating. goes up to 50 bucks a share. sara, what's the rough read-through here when it comes to nike because the citi
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analysts cites a renewed partnership with nike is the reason they made this upgrade? >> more beneficial for foot locker than nike. nike is still the number one brand and biggest supplier, number one client as well. it's strong. there's no evidence that nike brand momentum isn't as strong as ever. for earnings, the key question is going to be china and what is the rebound actually look like there? is it slower than expected? that's been huge growth and profitability story for nike. the other question is inventories, which were super bloated coming out of covid and with all the shipping delays and issues. it's been slow, mike, for that to work down. that's been an issue for profitability as well. but nike has outperformed since its last quarter. it certainly is trouncing adidas, under armour, puma, all
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the other brands when it comes to brand strength. >> they want leaders with balance sheets. that's where nike comes in. what's interesting with foot locker is the inventory at the retailers, the shoe retailers are not that bloated. that's one of the positive points for the foot locker call. i guess maybe big picture what you would have to ask is, are the -- is the interest in sneakers, the intensity, the number of pair people buy per year on average, is that going to cap out at some point? because it's fascinating that it's about the sneaker drops and it's like the intense interest in the new ones, that's been such a central piece of the industry for so long. >> i don't think there's a limit. >> i don't know there is, right. the price/demand, the whole conversation about sneakers has been blown out of the water. i look on ebay and i see what people are willing to pay for those sneaker drop shoes. >> you have to go to flight club
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in new york city. that's where you can tell the brands that have it going on with the prices and amount of inventory. nike and jordan continue to dominate. >> the ceo of coach years ago was bragging about they had single handedly taken credit for the number of handbags per year the average woman bought. it went from like 1.5 to -- whatever the number was. and they treated it as if there is no limit to this. we're going to keep -- >> handbags are more expensive than sneakers. >> more expensive but they were also like, the accessories you can add that's not a whole outfit. >> scaleable one. >> there is a limit for me but maybe not for society as a whole. >> you're not in the benchmark for 15-year-old boys to buy sneakers. >> don't miss foot locker. foot locker ceo mary dillon will be on "mad money" with jim cramer, a must-watch interview. 70% of our fed survey participants think the fed will participants think the fed will raise rates tomorrow, but nearly
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>> the always critical kevin on the fed. our next guest argues the banking issue won't disappear no matter what happens at tomorrow's meeting and the government backstop creates an arbitrage opportunity to pile into treasuries and money markets. joining us is head of interaction -- >> international. >> excuse me. fixed income, andy bremer. it's good to see you, andy. >> good to see you. >> nice tie. so, what exactly opportunity has presented itself? we've already seen a lot of flows into money market and treasuries. >> well, every one, this is just making it more and more obvious. the problem here is with the fed and the treasury are doing are clearing up the symptoms, which is some risk, duration risk, as well as -- as well as trying to bail out the banking system. the reality is banks are still paying 1% to 2%. you can buy treasury bills at
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4.80 and money market at 4.50. u.s. corporate treasurer, if you're a wealthy individual, you'll start moving money out of banks. a lot has happened. now you have credibility with the banks. i don't think the banking issue is going away any time soon, but i do think the fed thinks its ring fence and will raise 25 tomorrow. i expect them to be a little aggressive. i expect rates to back up, but i think the fed will ultimately be wrong and i think we need lower rates, not higher rates. >> and you think that's how the banking crisis ends? >> absolutely. i think that's the only thing you can do is get rates down to 3%, 3.5%, and all of a sudden the big arbitrage goes away and i think the banks become healthier. what you have now is a lot of money moving from small banks to large banks. the velocity for small banks is much higher than big banks meaning they're much more likely to lend.
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i think it's going to slow down the economy. i think the fed is underweighting the problem of the ability of banks in overweighting the problem of inflation. >> it makes sense, andy, but what we hear from treasury officials and others is deposit outflows largely have stopped or gone in the other direction for the regional bank. >> i still think it's going to start up again. what you have now is you have the treasury this morning, there are rumors on your show and elsewhere, that the treasury is going to backstop all depositors. and whether that happens or not, i believe it is, i think that that situation will start to redevelop. i don't think anything is solved by a longshot. >> one of the things that we kind of learned or gleaned in the aftermath of the collapse of silicon valley and signature was how many depositors went to some of those institutions and other institutions like it in some ways and not others, chasing yields. some of these banks offered much higher than what is considered market yield, so people went and put their money, getting an
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extra 50, 75 basis points for a high-yield savings account to other banks out there. is that dynamic still at play right now? do you think there's still yield chasing or do people just value the safety of it versus, say, going to a smaller regional bank or credit union that offers you a quarter to half percent more for your cash? >> the ones that is offering the most yield right now is the treasury bills. that's the fed. i mean, sure, you go to silicon valley bank because you go from 2.5 to 3. meanwhile, you go into the weekly treasury bills and you're going to get 4 rating. after the fed raises tomorrow you'll get 5% again. so, i don't really think that's going to go away. i think we're in a lull, and i think we'll start again. i don't think the crisis will end until rates are being cut. >> primarily centered on regional banks or you think -- >> no, i think large banks are fine.
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i think large banks have more deposits than they know what to do with. i think it's going to center on small banks and regional banks. >> don't you think rates where they are right now, i'm looking at six-month t-bills, you mentioned those, almost 4.95%, almost 5% right now. there was the fear people would take their money and where are they going to go? they're not going to stuff it in their mattress. is there going to be a liquidity crunch? is there going to be a flight out of the banking system overall or just a shift within it and what does that mean long term? >> i think the shift goes, dom, in the sense you're taking money out from a deposit. that deposit can be used by a bank to win money. that deposit's going to go into treasury bills. those treasury bills aren't going to -- even if the treasury bills are still at the bank in some kind of way, shape or form, that's not going to be money the bank can use. i think it's going to be less and less money for the banks to lend. and i think it's going to show up in slower numbers. i think we'll see now.
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i still don't think we'll go into recession by any means, but i do think the fed is going to have to rethink what they're doing. this is really what lail brainard was saying before he left over the last month, that something in the system was going to break. this is the first thing it's broken. the fed has moved too far, too fast and people can't -- you can't adjust that quickly. >> when do you think the first cut is? >> i think the first cut probably comes in july. you know, just looking at the numbers, i mean, two days ago you had three cuts built into december. when i came in right before the show, i looked, and it was probably 1, 1.5. it changes constantly. look, i think the range -- >> what if inflation doesn't come down enough by then? >> i still think the stability of the banking system is ten times more important than inflation. inflation expectations based on the new york fed, based on the michigan still show no real change.
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2.9, 3.1, something along those lines. i'm not worried about inflation. inflation is coming down. i am worried about bank stability. i'm worried about a run of the banks, i'm worried about panics. i think that should be the fed's primary goal. >> not a lot of people agree with you. >> as far as rates go, i think two-years get interesting at 4.50, 4.15. last year closer to 10%. and you're not there right now. if you do get there, i think you should buy. and i expect -- i expect a panic-type rally within the next two days. >> all right. a lot of specifics there. thank you. nat alliance international head of fixed income, andy brenner. thanks. >> thanks. the nasdaq outperforming the rest of the market during the rest of the market during the recent banking crisis but not did you ever stress about us having three kids? no, that was always part of the plan. three kids?! this was never part of the plan! these kids order the lobster mac 'n cheese!
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it was crushed after downloads of the app. you may not be super familiar with it but it has 750 million monthly active users, more than tiktok and runs the app that has made in-roads in the app. i hear more than download issues for its parent company . it is raising eyebrows. you might remember the super bowl ad, the tag line shop like a billionaire for temu played in two slots. chinese tech investors care about efficiency,ñi andñi it's one temu, that is, of what i'm calling chinese apps with american characteristics. chinese tech companies just couldn't gain traction among consumers here. there have been several, temu, shein, the fashion giant popular with theñi younger demographic, tiktok and cap cut. this is an editing app owned by bytedance and is gaining
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popularity here. big american money involved, tiger global. the largest shareholders include vanguard and fidelity. this raises the stake to show when he appears in congress in a few days. >> the takes couldn't be any higher for him. deirdre, given the low rates you would think would go into all sorts of pockets of technology. does it say anything about the chinese recovery as well which a lot of people are trying to figure out what shape it looks like. >> the chinese recovery and the fundamentals, right, which are very much interrelated. you take a look at a baidu. they botched it so that stock has been under pressure and the fundamentals, the growth haven't kept up. there has been pressure. as you well know some of the geopolitical tensions, and i
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mentioned it here, it costs a lot of money to make inroads with the american consumer starting from a very different base than an american company. you have to look like an american company to gain consumers and that costs money like super bowl ads. investors don't like that. >> dee, we are seeing a big move higher tied to the east asian market, korea, and that's because we saw the chinese government, quote, unquote, approve a new slate of games for rollout in china so that kind of got some folks to thinking whether or not that crackdown on big technology, big media in china is abating a bit. do you see other signs of that happening? is the chinese crackdown on big tech over? >> let me go back to what i say pretty much every time we talk about chinese stocks, these are trades not necessarily investments. one day beijing is saying, let's get the gaming sector going once
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again. the next day -- and you really don't know. investors don't know. chinese investors on the ground don't know when they're going to start cracking down again. short-term trade if you want to try to do that. longer term is where a lotñi of the skepticism comes for stocks we've seen over the last few years and since they've been trading here. >> not a lot of visibility there. deirdre deirdre with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one.
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we are going to stop bowser! how? look at us. we're adorable. let's go. yes! april 5th. rated pg. for today's wall street buzz, we'll turn back to the banks. unexpected firms got caught in the crossfire, asset managers pimco and investco the two largest holders that were totally wiped out in the ubs takeover holding more than a billion dollars worth of security for credit suisse between the two firms according to bloomberg. unlike u.s. deposits that might be gone for good, european and
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british banking regulators say equity holders come before those who held the riskier assets which i think came as a big surprise, though that's actually what the bonds were meant to do. they were after the european debt crisis to help banks hold more capital, and they were riskier, no question about it, and would be wiped out in financial turmoil. i think the surprise came in the fact the equity holders did better than the creditors in the deal. >> the paradigm of capital structure was always that bondholders and then hybrid bondholders and then equity holders, the bottom of the totem pole, the headlines caught a lot of people off guard. if you're a stockholder and you're being bought out nationalized, how would they get anything out of this when bondholders could get something out of it as well. and, by the way, we learned this morning that not shockingly, sara, there are law firms now better exploring the idea of representing bondholders of
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credit suisse in litigation possibly.ñr >> i think there will be a lot of questions asked. i want to point out we're up half a percent. a nice rally. >> 25 points to go. >> that does it for us. thank you, dom. i'll hand it over to melissa lee who is doing "the halftime report" today. melissa? thanks, sara. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm melissa lee in for scott wapner. front and center this hour, what is at stake for your money as the fed kicks off a critical two-day meeting. the investment committee making big moves as the bank crisis continues to unfold. joining thus hour to discuss, stephanie link, josh brown, and jim lebenthal. also with us steve liesman. we want to get a check of the markets here as dom and sara
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