better when all the tu+eáz kind of dissipates. >> stephanie, thank you. we love talking to you, especially when there's breaking news and you kind of dig through stuff with us. we'llv3'eok you soon. >> thanks. we are almost out of time. it's going to be a big dg9 um. don't move. stay here for the whole day. fá . we'll be talking all about it. "squawk on the street" begins rightfá now. ♪♪ good wednesday xdmorning, st" that's the name of this show. his name is jim cramer. we'ree1çó live from post nine ae new york stock exchange.t( jim and i celebrate humpday, as we used to call it. what would you call that, jim? i would say, mixed, nothing open. >> yeah. pac west day.xd you want to go with that? right there. i'll do anything you want.

carvana day. >> i don't want to call it carvana day. fedxdq day. our road map starts with today's fed decision on interest rates, both banking turmoil, of course, and inflation are the keys. will policymakers calld hike or a pause? ?.áját beating analyst expectations, but an inventory glut promptingxd the company to warn about its margins. and my favorite topic,i] of course, the a.i. arms race. you're going to want toñi hear what e1nvidi!i told jimñi about ite1 during la night'sñi "mad money." also got interesting comments from)■w3billgates. let's get to the markets. counting down to the fed decision on çórates. i think i know where you are, but what are your expectations? what's the market going to do? >> thexd 25 and thatçó way, doe cause any sortfá ofñi ripple, because just a week ago, we were looking for half. look, david, i think that we're looking at this all wrong. we're getting near the end of the tightening cycle. that's whyx5a putñi this piece

previous cycles, particularlyçó thei] 1984 continental cycle, resonated with me, which is that that was the top of that cycle, and you had to buy.g great buying opportunity. >> the failure ofi]ó[■ continen illinois?çó what was the interest rate cycle there? >> well, he had been raising -- the real rate was around ç9 he )b,qwe can't keep tightening. >> that was greenspan,ko■ right? >> no. that was volker. >> that was volker? oh, maybe continental illinois was -- >> it wasa5■ '84.xd some of the work they'reçó doin at goldman on this is really quite good. >> çóyeah. a look at what they're talking aboute1 in terms of the bank te funding and how you understand that, but the most important thing was the 1984 continental r illinois,i]lp this was one where continental illinois situation was rather enlightening because it was volker, and volker's a

tough guy, and volker had to pause. so, i like it because it's a recognitionlp that you had this situation in penn square,i] whi was an oil bank, tp[■ banks in the1country, got involved. and then itñi collapsed.e1 and it happened rather qsuddenl, and it feels like this. sudden but was contained. yeah. >> and that was the pause. and i think that when you look at it, you say, wowtyéñ you kno that was --+uq kind of just tps. >> wasn't volker already in the midst of lowering rates? they were coming down from the áyrñ the real rate was 10% and wanted the rate lower after that. this is may '84. >> we're going to get 25 basis points today,xd right? >> oh, yeah, definitely.i]i4!r(% i shouldn't sayjf definitely, b the idea is that -- do you want to rattle the whole world and say,e1xd listen, if yout( don't rates -- if you don't raise

rates, they'll say, i'mñi selli every regional bank. we don't wantxd that. the fnc paused çótightening, chairman volker the fed had "ru given thet(fáe1fá tightening." i think powell should use the same language as volker. and then we know we're okay. imitating volkerxnis never wron. >> no. no. >> there you go. right there. just usew3ñifáw3 the language o quoting volker. some really good research being done that's being ignored by a bunch of banks that are çósayiì% look, there's a way out of this situation, so don't panic. >> it feels like we're almost getting our way out of the situation. >>+■q exactly. >> as i said everye1 day now, first republic isñi still potentiallylpi] to be dealt wit. >> i'me1 going to ask you. why did they hire lizzardq and mckenzie add jpmorgan? >> you want as manyñi ideas as u can get. >> but you have jamie dimon.

&háhp &hc% >> jamiei] is one side of it, b the banker at jpmorgan who's dealing with it is in the investqc(p'k trying to advise as any investment banker would opportunities. there. >> i know he thinks that -- i've understood him to be able to say, ."■listen, we need this th to bev?u let'su■ s96< evercqp'ks to be insured. i don't know --t(!u■ that's wha understand. >> right, lpbut, i mean, youjf 3 blankfein, though. do we have that sound? he was not speaking --a5■ he alt eñ sort of generallyg speaking about what do you doq with these banks as costym■ of funds has gone up dramatically and they're not in a position money or even make loans? takeh÷ listen.ó[■g

is and will not make money because of the cost of their funding versus what they çóqcan you know, what they can get back on the other side,w3 i think that'si] what the resolution authority isu■!u■ -- that's wha resolution authority is for. >>ñi and jim -- >> clearly doesn't watch "mad money" because i had a super regional on. he said, that's all untrue. you say, jim, that's becauset( has more deposits insured than anybody else inñi regionals,but he's saying, no problem in gross margins. >> that may well be the case foi huntington, but i'm not sure it is for first republic. you want to bring in as many people as you can to try to keep yourself going at first republic. >> but there isok a common -- >> fill the hole in your balance sheet. >> i'm going to contest that. >> i am.ly? >> isn't there cost of funds >> isn't there c[ájjtr funds r(t&háhp &hc% whether they're real4y] or whether, if we getñ9ie1 thro

this -- >> yesterday, you were talkingx to me about how deposits are still leaving. how could their cost of funds not go up? >> i listen. when a good guyçó tellst( me th there's not as much problems at his bank, i want to question that.xmo cf1 o >> pacific west comes out withw further details. >> it's too early. >> they borrowedxd $10.4 billio from the discount window. my point heret( is -- andq $3.7 billion of borrowings from the federal home loan bank. that's more expensive for them than paying you 1%. >> that's true, but if we're going to focus on aw3 handful o banks that have been illinois. meaning, okay, because of this is stá/y and you want to buy stocks. 1984w"sq an amazing time to buy stocks. i was with the largeste1lp inveá continental illinois, for dinner, not that long before continental illinois, and --

>> wait, what? 1984, you were? >> yeah, i was. >> where were you working then? >> i was on my own, trading int myçóñi dorm. i had feet pajamas. >> you actually wore a tie back then, i assume. >> i hadfáe1 a marshals outfit,t to work forf:w goldman, and the said, here's xd$500, go buy a suit. >> you were in law school? >> i know, it's pretty crazy.çó and he didn't see it coming. so, i mean, it's possible. things hapwwzq pretty quickly. >> they do. >> i told him i thought he>7!s going to be in trouble. he laughed atxd me. >> getting back to the theme here, what is the theme? >> the theme is that we want a couple of banks to ñ we want so have an '84 scenario where oneñ or two banks causes the fed to stopp,■ andñi then the pauvvjf p and what i'm saying is that you can say, like, pac west, now,q david, until two weeks ago,g

company like west rock ■óspinof. i didn't care about it. because we had a lot of ads about it and because it was safra bank and then wefá had th really fancy people runzgz and say, i got ar about:6pp÷ silicon valley banki because it was an emerging bank. west still or what?t( >> pac west hasht■ñiq apollo. they'reu■i] smarter than we are. i'm not goñ to go against ya&tjy for heaven's sake. >> the market right now is not really -- >> apollo may be overextended. we can sit here and say whatever we want. i don't care. i want to know deposit infloqa■ and deposit outflow. jamie dimon and añie1 group of s put money into firstnb■ republi. what happened? where'd it go? >> it's on deposit at first republic. >> well, why doñi they need -- y do they need more help if they

f1 o >> because itñr potentiallyçów3t enough. they had negative equity. so, again, i go back to the idea that ifu■ you can'te1 really rue to because your cost of funds is so much higher, what do you!u■ ? it's what blankfein was talking about. there are things you canxdq do. maybe you're able to take some of these assets, move them out of the okbank,cu?ha5■ capitaliz some way, give those who provide back to lendingxd andt( operatis you did çópreviously. i >> the law firms in town, higher-than-$250,000 threshold, and then the fdic should actually let you insure. self-insure. if you want to havmi $25 millio in a regional bani insurance. youe1 can't trust thexd regiona bank, although the fdic haszaer%

the data they need about the region and what the basis point should be. i'm offering a solid solution, i think, that lloyd did not. >> okay. >> okay. ív■ lloyd, notq unlike -- >> is it? >> well,ñi when you're the overlook hotel,xd it sure is. >> steven king. the movie. >> the@■poh, the overlook hotelq from "the shining." >> it's jacke1 nicholson, jack >> i have no idea. and you knowxd what? jensen huang, when he speaks, i probablyxd have no idea either, but we're goingq to findt( out t he said about a.i. to jim, because jim understands him and all thosexd very difficult concepts that he ise1t( discuss. he was on "mad money"xd lasjd night, called it an iphone moment. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> and bill gates.

do you ever worry we'll live forever? no, it's literally never crossed my mind. what if we live to like 100? that's 35 years of being retired. i don't want to outlive our money. and i have been eating all these stupid chia seeds! i could totally live to be 100! why do i keep taking such good care of my- since we started working with empower, we're able to get all our financial questions answered, so we don't have to worry. so you never- no. never. join 17 million people and take control of your financial future to empower what's next. start today at empower.com

and so this is a brand-new computing platform, a new computing model, and that's the reason why i callfá it the ipho >> all fáright, jim. now's your chance to try tofá explain to us what was the most presentation. >> nikeshok from palo alto clai he was -- part of this? >> all right,xdi]çó i8(z%9-■ it about teaching. that jensen's most excited about the idea that you can kind of upend our whole educational system and make it so individually about how to learn quantum phwkr(ák as he mentioned, how to learn chemistry. it's about equalizing the country, and i think that that is one of, as you would note, about the public school system. this would be something that

that would be democratic in nature, and it would be fantastic.xd secondarily, i think there are things that we wouldt( do with n i asked xdhim, i said, my mom dd of kidney cancer. could we just askok itlp how to solve kidney cancer? not yet. it's still not smarter than we are, but it's catching up. >> getting there. >> gates talked aboutfá how it >>xd gates talked about those t outcomes as well, education, health care, how important it can be. the first partñr of gates's blo or essay, the development of a.i. is as fundamental about the creation ofxd the microprocesso the computer, the internet, and the mobile eohone. it will change the way people work, learn, communicate with each entire industries will reorient around it.qw themselves by how well they use it. >> right. you have a bunch ofok different companies that are alive. a lot ofok what he was talking about yesterday, qjensen,e1 was about how whatok -- there are

different companies that are really into this. microsoft's really into it. he didn't emphasize too much in mye1 interviewi] about the partnerships.k(t&háhp &hc% he talked about theñ idea ofjf wonderment. he showed mefá exactly this stu almost a year ago, and nobody was intere;t+q >> i know, but yout( talked abo it. it was hard to understand exactly what it was. or how it would work. >> that'st( becausei] i was not >> he's now talking about factories that will be completelyfá automated. >> well, i mean, ilp asked him,d 2turuá$uáñ he said, yes. we're still important. >> yep. >> but there are a lot ofxd job that are done better right now, but it is getting smarter and smarter and smarter. now, i'm sure he actually talked about how this open a.i. hash=4 lot of, really,i] a lot of guidelines wae able to guard against some of the things that you were talking about, because iñi asked him abt that. also, i always like, you know, sort of towards thex$dend,a5■c s

the possibility that a.i. will run out of control, wrotei mr. gates. "could a machine decide that humans are a threat, conclude from ours or simp>yx3-9■ stop c about us? possibly." >> you still have!u■ to ask it things. coding has been the single biggest, i think, problem inñi ■ society. you either know how to code, and get a good don'txd know howñi to code. this is the endñr of that. that's why you can ask it something. i can ask it something. someone who hasn't gone to graduate school. >> so many of these leaders in a.i. ultimately say we're going to need the government to figure out what is allowable, so to speak, and what isn't. guidelines, rules of ther it seems hard to imagine a government's going to be able to do that. and by the way,i] our governmen is going to have a very different approach than the chinese government.

gates again, writing here, "once qédq+elopers can generalizei] a learning algorithm and run it at the speed of a computer, an accomplishment that could be a decade q we'll haver powerful agi will be able to do everything that a human brain can but without any practical limits on thñ■p size of its memy or the speedlp at which it operates. ing this this will be a profounk change." >> every single industry should bejf examining right now what t do and he says that's what's happening. by the way, their lead is so ridiculous versus everybody else. >> nvidia. >> yeah. the microprocessorúfá a very good -- kind of ironic development that gates is talking about, because the opening of theñic unbelievable keynote was thexd buryingjfjt moore's law. he said,xd there's noñr more adñ,m!ge to shrinking the footprint, and it's also too hot, not sustainable. let's just scrap intel.

and it's just amazing. that's howfá he started.9xìá did not mentionñr t(intel, butt talked about the way we shrunk ig gaining factor mentally, because most people think, let's get the newt( pgt) saying, forget that. that's just wrong. nobody cares anymore. forget it. very threatening to intel.ñi but not what he's talking about. >> there's a reason whyñv9y% ■ has a $650 billion market value] u far, far, far smaller. u:uy a lot of people sold ot of people solde1 intelt( and nvidia down all the way. i mean, nvidia, take a look at where it was. people felt it was a gaming card how could they have been soñ1 wrong? i was screaming ever&f day, but no one listened. i was a still, small voice in the wilderness. >> still, small voice in the wilderness. poetry sometimes. coming 'cwey we'reñilp goin get cramer's "mad dash" and count down to the opening bell.

let's give you one more look at futures. >> don't forget pac west, the most important bfcafá in the rld. wo what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. (woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business. unlimited premium data. unlimited hotspot data. (woman 2) you know it's from the most reliable 5g network in america? (vo) when it comes to your business, not all bars are created equal. so switch to verizon business unlimited today. [music - cover of blondie's “dreaming”] [music playing]

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but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. seven minutesjujtjut we get jujui s. let's talk axd littleñi gamesto the "mad dash," shallqñi we? >> what areñc7r weçó convinced you needn't do if you're anything technology retail? you have to cut youre1 e1costs, you have to grow your revenues. that's what gamestopfá did. some people say, listen --ñixdç. they sold a lot of goods. they had great console sales. theyñi closed a lot of

underperforminglp sto2q, and improved1e;z[ >>=pk■ we were all questioning many people were questioning. many analysts, whether they could sustain themselves. >> i'm surprised console sales were sot( strong. i know they were just okay at best buy. but they -- they're doing some collectibles that are doing well. look, there's not enough -- >> i mean, look, that's where it was before ñiñimemes, right? >> it's sketchy. we don't know about thejfñi inventory position. euoks. we don't know about anything other than what matt furlonge1 said, but the balance sheet is terrific. >> it is.

>>cjf it's terrific. >> well, they were able to >> they did a lot of great stuff. it is a bit of ax8÷x textbook a how to save an ailing retailer, versus,t( say, bed bath & beyon which is not the textbook. >> you would say that none of this had anything to do with them saving it? i was going to go back to thk memeñr craze. werenoíñ they able to actually secure a certain amount? >> what, bed bath? e■ help f1 o >> i mean, no, they helped the balance sheet tremendously. and they took advantage of the fact that the stock was much higher. all i'm saying is that -- >> that wasn't, like -- >> it's a very better-run company than a lot of people thought. >> okay. >> now, is it one qo+>er only? i don't know. we don't have the -- we don't have the k. hard toxd figure out. but i will tellñi you this, dav. and there are no analyst questions. it was a surprise on the top line and the bottom line. so, you can say, well, that's the last one of many,ok but i'm just -- just now revelingç')j)q

and matt furlong, i invite jñ on "mad money." >> he's the ceo of qgamestop. >> very impressive. very impressive comeback. >> all right. on all the other so-called@leme names. few minutes away. minutes away. you can catch us, of

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing.i] let's get to shares ofñi ni, lower in the premarket. >> every analyst reiterated, >> every analyst reiterated, that call was not a great call in that it just talked about a couple hot shoes and then talked about inventory.t(t( but china's strong. they're doing quite wellt( in basketball. people want to keep the stock down, in part because it had such a big runw3 ahead, but dav, in the end, nike is so loved by wall street, they can't help themselves, the buyersi] will b in buying it aggressively. >> upgraded to overweight at barclay's. ubs raises theirçó pricefá targ.

evercore has jft(outperform. jeffries raised. evercore, outperform. come on. wedbush, jpmorgan, and the stock's down? how long can that last? wall street lovesxd nike.xdé@■j] >> realtime stock exchange. at the big board, watert(i] technology company vilem. at thst■nasdaq,c oculimn÷e1 >> r meta.q we haven't talked meta yet. we got another meta upgrade and same quality about them,t(i] wh is that there is nowe1 a returno going to have a giant impact on

the bottom line. this is from jay. i thought it was very solidly reasoned. i know, david, yesterday, you guys? >> well, they only went to outperform yesterday and obviously,u■ this is 65% move i the stock price this year, so, yeah, i did wonder that. >> better late than never? >> maybe. but you cited the fact that they saw revenu!i=]q!■ and now you're saying another analyst is also talking about revenue >> this time it's tpm. they might have gotten around the apple problems, and that wouldu■c be really great. i know, by [8ñway, if you want to know who is doing the best )h jensen huang from nvidia, i'm going tou■ tell you it's mark zuckerberg. >> ñrokay. >> tremendousko■e1w3 partnershi. >> evenw3 thoughu■ what? >> resulting in, if you go to metaverse, you can learn more. i mean, i know it's just xd enconceivable to many people that mark would be doing something that just sounds like it's kind of altruistic,fá not

unlike thexdko■ nico xdtimberge altruistic work where birds actuall9■d of a family helpuhqp other. it's really unbelievable. nico. you got to look it up. breakthrough work. >> thank you. >> it actually collides with çó darwin, says that darwin isn't right. what it saysw3i] is that birds altruistic, and i'm saying mark zuckerberg is a bird. >> well, i meanfá it in positiv way. >> of course you do. >> i just think that -- >> i don't believe it. >> i don't believe it. >> you're going to be proved sorely wrong. q care if he's altruistic or not? is he going to make money? >> that's thefá point. it's not just about avarice. he may be more altruistic. >> remember, you're a dollar sign masquerading as a man. >> i've never contested anything else. >> what our viewers want to xde1

know, is meta going up or down? are they going to earn moret( money? >> it's going up, because what we're discovering is that they figured out how tookiát)q money even though there was this disenfranchising by apple. in the meantime, sales at 18 qéúrsqáhqp)nings, but i think tt the pe is too low and the numberr when you, david -- >> this time, you're not getting taken, right? you're confident?i] taking, because at this point, i do have a particular set of skills that will be axd nightma like him if this thing goes down. good luck. well, what else, david? come on. let's go to the stuff that >> what else do you want to talk about? >> what else you want to talk about? >> i feel licwe dealt with nike efficiently. >> i want to talk about thet(ñia ■e1 anf/e&q"dq$eh!alysts do. nike is the growth name in the

group, but there's one stock that's been overlooked that's a traditional growthçó name. matt ross is telling you that lulu isi] for real. lulu5a■ being for lpreal, ahead when they're going to report, i think this could be a veryé@■lpy call by matt boss, 3/28, march 28, the stock is way down. i think lulu inches its way hig( e step byçó step, until it gets very close en 3/30, and then you can still buy it. very good situation. >> it is. >> everyone's so negative about i.! >> and why are they negative? >> well, because it missed the last quarter. >> yeah. >> well, you know, misses areçó not good. did you know that we haven't even talked about the real partners of jensen at nvidia? >> let's talk about them. >> adobe. >> well, adobe had an qpv of its own a.i.-related 5a■products.

>> we had him on, and he's saying, what's the quickest way to do this? people always want to know, who's going on outmoded? ifxdlp you use adobe and nvidiau will be able tor writes betteru■ copy, andd pictures. and marry it with the adober commerce system. david, the advertising world is the first to be, let's say, leveled by this. >> what does leveled mean? does that mean a lot of jobs will be lost and replaced by automation? >> profitability is going to soar. you can tell it what you're tryiciáo say. it will put it in a better way than you can. you can tell it whatñr it needso look like, and they've made a deal with getty images, so there is no need -- they don't even needçó that. >> i'm just ñisaying, the first- if you want to know tomorrowñi when i think industry isxd goin

to5a■ñi change? advertising. even faster than call center.ñi i thought it would be call center and drive-thru window. it's going to be advertising. it already writes better copy >> that's interesting. i've made this point a number of qok an expectation that the rise of automated task things that are considered creative. >> so did i.ñi that's what was so amazing. >> and yet, you would think, writing ad -- this is a creative-related -- what you're telling me is it may very well replace -- >> i don't know. winston tastes goodmy■ like a cigarette should? i remember that from 55 years ago. i will tell you this. in terms ofxd copy,lp it hashçe shown tofá have kind of snazzie better copy. okay? it can't write shakespeare, although i once asked jensen to have it write shakespeare. it's much easier to have a

cezanne piece made. >> the bard,çó should note that alphabet has come out withe2rxd it has now introduced. not in a full ot(árrjy but you can experiment with itt( now. >> the analysts are buying into it. they all want to. come on. they're off the plane. >> how much does this intermediate their own search and howxd it will be incorporat with it? the way bing is obviously incorporating chatgpt and what it's going to mean for their dominance in search. >> can't countñ thsa■ out.xd if you want toe1 know what stoc is the most depressed thatok >> why? >> on the device side. >> how dide1 you move from microsoft tor >> the winners -- i'm saying, medtronic is aokq winner. and adobe are winners.xd those are two winners from the except for me, i çóguess.tened n

spellbinding.djñj%qju$e mo heard. >> focusing people on for quite some time. >> well, it's -- he's just smarter than allçó of us. he just has a different way of thinking. a and it's -- he's just whip smart. >> all right. all thatr movexdçó in the stock over less( three months warranted? >> yes. of itself? >> no. >> no? my.)t hasn't because÷uzóns the stockçó was $291. so, i think the answer is, it's not done. davinb% industry -- it affects every ym■ virtually, and you have to use their cards and you need thousands of their cards, and they have all thexdjf iterationl set for you, then why shouldn't itxd be big?t( they don't need t8a q%=91■ fá

microprocessors when you -- listen. ii] just -- it wasw3 malifluousf spell binding. >> two companies -- >> i know. >> i mention that because we didn't mention apple yesterday and i mention it today beuse we're 38 minutes into the show and we haven't mentioned apple yet at z+(f4 it feels like that's wrong. >> not at( single positive analt piece. notje positive. but if you extrapolate nike, now you're hjt to say, jim, why are you doing that? if you extrapolate how strong v% nike was in china this quarter, i'm willing to take the leap of faith and say it's entirely possible that apple iphone doing better. h 9ñxdoverlooked by thew3 idea thr there's been some channel check that's probablyjf completelyçó bogus, that says it's not done well, and then another group of people saying, well, listen, there's no new iteration,ho cf1o there's nothing really exciting

about the iphone, as they make< full-scale movies on it. one of the things i haveç?$jz today, i don't know if you know o.n. these guys are --."■ >> on semi. >> yes -- no, they gotym■ that away. on holdings. this shoe company, really cool shoes. >> i thought that you wereçóokm talking about them. >> it was interesting because at one point, they confereñc broke down. they said, we're just passing a?gpnd ouxa!=9 even need the people who doxdi] this was a great conference they did their whole conference call / cares. nobody cares.5a■ these guys are thei] smartest guys. they just simn up one woman tennisñi player. amazing. ñ what are you talking about? iphone? you went to axd speakerok compa. >> i was in the on holdingsnb■ ■

and they did just got the on.com site. it's really cool. i'm talking aboutó[■t( new uses the iphone that happen every day. in the middle of their call, it broke down. the conference call.e1 into their iphone. well, that -- what's that worth? i mean, i mean just saying, people keep coming up with new . >> that's alle1 i needed. that's all i needed. >> the analystsçó love nike as much as they hate apple. >> now i understand what it is you were talking about and why you went from apuhq to a sneaker company. thank you. i want to talk about antitrust in the uk, briefly. >> oh, no, you're going -- are you goingt0■á broadcom? vm ware? >> yes. this is notñi unexpected. remember, this deal -- when was this deal announced, actually? may 26th of5a■fá 2022. broadcom, obviously, announced it'sñi acquiring vmware at the time. it was a 50/50 split. cash, shares.

see what's happened since then.i >> u■nothing. >> they're going to get a nasty second request, so to speak, from the cma, notxd unexpected. there's the quote from the cma's executive director. remember, this is the uk antitrustxd authority. we've talked a lot about them play such an important role in whether microsoft is going to be able to prevailxd inok its hope xd activision. they're concerned it could cut outñr competitorsfá andñr suppl hardware components to the server market and lead to lesse innovation at a time when most firms want fast responses and affordable i.t.ok systems. respond to concernsñr or faceçóe in depth investigation. not unexpected. but whenñr we come to the cma a microsoft and activision, shares have moved up of late in this vague sense that mike is going to figure out a way to

when the fácma camet(t( owith i objections, that it was máe&y dead, but there are still signó of life. you can see it in the stock price. nonetheless, while i'm told microsoftñr has provided the cm all the tools that it needs to aqd(ove a transaction, there is whether the cma's ideology on behavioralp■remedies, namely, they don't like them, will be hard to o>=come. >> lpw3well, i mean -- >> that's where i but i did want to mention this other deal because we haven't talked about that. broadcom, he told me this dealñ would not be -- isg tot( 2023, so let's not lose sightçóf that fact. >> it was a longfá timeline tol begin with. >> he's famously known as a vb0■ tough guy who has indeed alienated some customers. so perhaps, david, there are

some people in there trying>4& stop thisqfá deal. >>e1 there may be. ñ know in the case of activision, for example, sony has hammering away. >> david, let's say you're this commission in britd >> you'reyeña■v seriously comments by other companies that i don't thinkxdh used to be cared about as much as they are now. >> i know.q elief thatmy■lp they're ideologically driven at the cma to the same extent that perhaps our regulators herein the united states are. however,üuy you have the opportunity to appeal to a court. >> right. >> over t(there,'c■ they almost veto power. once they go --< ■ that's it. there's not much you can do. >> it's funny you m- that, because you schooledg this. i would say, ÷ñlisten, justice going to block it. and they get the right judge, justice loses. right judge, meaning, ai] judge who doesn't see violations everywhere. .jd8laws here have not7x+qp&lyuq

changed.xdxd theñi interpretation may have. >> i think wheng merge, that's bwcmme one of these things where people feel that -- >> upxd sharply. they're down ae1 bit he$eip r(t% and you know, again, market participants want to keep coming back to that name. why? well, it'sçó not $3 billion mart cap. >> but -- >> the balance sheet, itwsi stil seen as sort of the final -- the hope being that this will be th■ resolution ofe1 this crisis,çó ■ mini-crisis, as i've called it. some have taken issue with that. >> if yo5■( go back three weeksm stickyñi deposits and nq4÷ to xd

worry, makes this such a frauw■ areat( to opine on, because in talk withfár uningñi i kept hearing over and over again were, trusted advisors, and trusted advisors -- money isfát(xd very sticky. and obviously, that was notw3 t >> no. around. sp%9[9we have had st+g'g performance from these names, generally. yesterday.xd nh!eiñ day prior, first republi was down sharply,q but the rest of the group was up. >> huntington bank, i interviewed them yesterday.c agai÷ they have the most insurance per deposit.fá they have the highest -- yield is 5.5%. and i don't want to recommend any ofw3 these, because we all will be remembered as recommending them. but i think i'm creating an etf and someone will steal it and nuíñ pay me a dime, and i don't care. not unlike agent samt(i]fá gira

that seminal r >>çów3 we did hear, they're not raisingñi capital at this time. tiny market caps. need to raisei] capital in the parlance of jpmorgan, not jamie's jpmorgan, but the original jpmorgan, it means you need to raise capital. >>!u■ it's the same way that --d credit suisse i calling me one morning last week. >> they were? >>çó too late. two words. jay gould. >> tooé@■ late. when your guys are all waking me up at 6:00 in the xdw3morning, p r(t&háhp &hc% >> read !uad"american rascal" i i'll tell youñi what funeral you're being invited to when this stuff happens. >> as a reminder, you can get in on the cnbc investing club k! jim. sign up, find out mores7■ at sign up, find out mores7■ at cnbc.com or point your phonei] xzh ghúa

25 basis point hike in interest rates. will it be the lastfá for some ó time? of course, continuesg question. weçó will get that press conference. there's a look at the two-year there's a look at the two-year notet( at 4.210 fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com as americans, there's one thing we can all agree on. the promise of our constitution

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here are your gainers thus far in the session on the s&p. led by those two names. those are the two names i associate with jim cramer right now. >> thank you very much. >> advanced micron -- >> i must be doing something >> i must be doing something right what does it mean to be ever better? its your customers getting what they ordered when they expect it. discover how ryder ecommerce makes your customer's experience ever better. you need to deliver new apps fast using the services you want in the clouds of your choice. with flexible multi-cloud services

that enable digital innovation and enterprise control, vmware helps you innovate and grow. 92% still active? seems high. seriously? it's just a bike. wait. they make a treadmill with an intuitive speed knob?

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what do you have for stocks trading? >> housing starts up, but we had the first time decline -- no, this is february, .2. but first time since 2012 and we have wolf saying listen, the reason why i think it's interesting, david, you know what you should be selling at

this point, home builders. but rates drop a little bit and buyers come right back. be aware the fed would like to see more numbers for price declines than we've had in one month. >> the reason why. >> yeah. there was a price decline, it was the first one we've seen and year over year -- >> if you're the fed, you want to say i want to really knock this out. so they're -- >> also talked about not just that but also wage inflation. it's not better. >> it's not better yet. you know what i talked about with jensen long, this is a long-term issue for labor in this country. you could make it so i believe -- i said this to him -- that we would not have a labor shortage. he agreed there's so many things that can be done, including bank examiners, how you would have detected instantly there was a run on the bank at silicon if you had software run by nvidia.

look at that. >> i'm not sure when you deem it a run on the bank. >> it said it would flash. it would flash, be faster. if you read the piece in the journal today it said the bank exam iners could not keep up. >> i'm not sure what it would have mattered. once it starts, it's so hard to keep up. >> you could have detected unusual activity. >> what do you have on tonight? >> listen, don't laugh o.n. is the hottest sneaker company in the world. if i work at nike -- >> it's two of them? >> yeah. it's a partnership. >> martin and marc are both coming on? >> now nike is coming up. >> why do you need two guys? can't one be on? >> they're a partnership. they like each other. i don't know it's a good call.

if i was nike i would not worry about adidas, underarmour. >> you need two people for the same company? >> they do tennis and running. if i were nike right now, i would be so worried about this o.n. >> really? >> yeah. there's a line to get into the store in london. there's no line to get into the nike stores. david, if i were nike i'd be shaking. like cool hand luke, i'd be shaking it, boss. >> i'll see you later. coming up, what are we going coming up, what are we going to dohen it comes w dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living.

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good wednesday morning and welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" i'm sara eisen with david faber. carl has the morning off. look at stocks. they were in a better mood ahead of the fed decision turned negative now. but, you know, unchanged i would say, given some of the worries, pressures around the banking

turmoil lately. the s&p 500 is little changed preponderance of the evidence little changed. again we had a good day yesterday. 30 minutes into the trading session, three big movers, nike slightly under pressure, coming back despite beating on the top and bottom lines. hurt by weaker china sales. we'll have more on the quarter later this hour. meta one of the top gainers on the s&p 500 this year. upgraded again, overweight at key bank, saying meta is a handful of tech companies set to rally on the back of a more stable market. seems like it gets an upgrade every day. the euro on the move, a five week high right now on the dollar following comments from the european central bank president on inflation earlier today. have a listen. >> the sizable policy adjustment is already behind us. as you mentioned, since july last year we have raised interest rates by 350 basis

points. however, inflation is still high. and uncertainty around its path ahead has increased even more recently. this makes a robust strategy going forward essential. >> everybody is looking at those comments where she's still talking tough on inflation. as perhaps a precursor to what we're going to get from fed chair powell. the market expects a 25 basis points increase. the mystery is what he says about it, what the dot plot shows, and more importantly the signal he gives about future interest rates. i feel this is a fed meeting nobody is going to be happy. people are going to criticize him for not being tough enough on inflation or not worried enough about the banking system. >> do you think he says anything or addresses anything head on on

what the fed is seeing and how it views the stability of the banking system? >> i think he has to. they've been a central player. they've been involved in providing liquidity and coming to the rescue here. so going through the actions they took, why they took them, and how they feel about -- >> his language on that could be important. >> 100% important. >> and important gauge for the market. beyond obviously rates because we've been so focused on the health of some of these institutions. >> there's two worries for him to address. one on pure financial instability and a banking crisis contagion and how confident he sounds about the fact it is improving. we have seen that and what the impact is on the economy. there's a narrative it's going to be disinflationary. we'll see a severe credit crunch and that's going to cause the federal reserve to cut rates. what he says about that, especially in the context of hotter inflation numbers i think is going to be key. the market is looking for a rate

cut as soon as june. >> is there a -- you know, you made the point obviously this is an important moment but is there a press conference you can look back on that has similar sort of key questions and such a high level of expectation in terms of getting guidance on various things? . >> not for a while. it's interesting because we sort of are on the eve here of when the federal reserve had to step in a historic move and buy high yield bonds remember during covid? >> yes. april 2020 i think is what we're talking about. >> manch. >> was it march? was it that soon? >> yeah, mid to end march. it's around now whatever it was. i was looking back. that was a moment as well. i think it speaks to the fact that the central banks get creative when it m kos to financial stability and using their balance sheets as tools and going places they've never gone before, which a lot of people criticize and a lot give them props for.

>> that's another area. qt and what was a tightening of the balance sheet, but then we saw $300 billion go out -- or come in -- >> on the balance sheet. >> yeah. at the balance sheet. different in a way but i would be curious to hear the comments on that. >> a lot of people are looking at the banking crisis saying he should stop qt. they have a policy they want to shrink the balance sheet. i know they're boosting it giving emergency loans and liquidity to banks. but that's a tool he has at his disposal. if things get bad they can do it. >> it wasn't bad. >> 9 trillion, down to about 8.4 or something like that on the balance sheet. >> where were we before -- give us perspective on the fed balance sheet? >> a lot lower before covid. and then before the financial crisis we were even much lower. so those two, five or six maybe

before covid. but he has tools at his disposal, it's going to come down to the tone he uses. the recovery we've seen in the markets you've been following the bank stock and the credit market had a good day yesterday, talking to sources there, secondary credit market, nine deals priced for new issue came alive yesterday. that's the places you look if you're still worried about financial stress in the system so there are good signs there. >> no doubt and a lot of it is just sentiment and confidence. overall. and that is helped by stock prices, even if they aren't necessarily indicative of much on a day-to-day basis. you're right. but listen, we're not out of this. it does feel as though we're movieing past it. again, i bring up first republic because it seems to be one of the bigger question marks. still you had pack west, market cap wise is a tiny bank but lumped in there, western alliance.

a couple of them viewed in a perhaps more difficult position talking about how 65 plus percent of the deposit base is ensured. but they borrowed 10.5 billion from the fed discount window. the question is not the ability of the banks to continue, so to speak, but whether they can make money if the cost of funds is higher. that's a question we don't have answered yet. >> financials are down today, did well yesterday. tech, health care, staples, and materials are higher. we have an inflation problem still, i would point out. that's a problem going into the meeting because if he hikes, that's why. uk had bad news, 10.4% inflation. and bank of england has a decision tomorrow and they have to weigh the financial stability concerns also. maybe not as tricky because they're not the epicenter of the bank problem. >> is there a chance he's more

hawkish than the market expects? >> there's a chance, he doesn't declare victory, not concerned about the banking crisis, he's hawkish. but nobody knows. it's a quiet period, we don't know how worried he is or if there's an appropriate level of worry where the market is saying we're going to peak out at 4.4. a week ago -- not a week ago, earlier in march that was 5.5% on the terminal rate. so a huge adjustment on the bond market. >> i know. it's hard to imagine we were talking about 6% from quite a few people as a possibility that conversation changed dramatically. although a benefit to some of the banks. i would point out back to pack west they say our loss, banks accumulated comprehensive loss declined to 704 million march

17th because of the move in rates. >> let's bring in sam stowball on what to do with stocks around the uncertainties. and steve liesman, covering the fed meeting. what's your feeling on the tone that he will strike today as it relates to further rate hikes? >> i think he nods to the uncertainty out there. i expect him to be sensitive to the story or story line. credit was already tightening in the economy, sara as you may know. so this is probably going to deepen that. it's -- it shouldn't be overlooked, the additions that the banking system, especially community and regional banks make to the economies and the loans they give. a deposit moving from a regional bank to j.p. morgan, with all due respect to j.p. morgan, i don't know to what extent they're in a position to take the deposits and the other side of their operation originate

loans from the new d deposits they have, probably not, they become reserves in the banking system not put to work in the economy. so that's going to have an impact. there are businesses that aren't going to be able to get a loan to start. and i think powell is going to be sensitive to that and sensitive to that in the guidance. at the same time do what you say, acknowledge the inflation problem he has. so he'll hike a quarter and rely upon the uncertainty out there, and say, look, we have time to make our next decision and we're going to take that time. >> does any of it change your view of what to do with equities here. what you hear from powell? >> i think it certainly could have an impact on the investor confidence and where we go in the short term. our belief is they're going to raise by 25 basis points today. they'll probably do so again in may and in june with a terminal rate at 5.375. but then i think that the market

will look across the valley and i think it will start to feel a bit more optimistic that traditionally, nine months after the last rate hike we tend to see the fed cut rates. i don't think they'll do that in june, as you mentioned in the preamble here. but i think that certainly beginning of 2024, at least, we will see the first rate cut. >> that's later than the market thinks. that means that the market will be disappointed. don't you think? >> it could be disappointed in the short term. we've gone through some disappointments just recently but i think that investors will look to whether the market is then oversold and take advantage of that. so the belief is we'll see more volatility. i think the market is going to trace out the design on charlie brown's shirt, volatility up and down. but then a year from now we're

likely to be higher by double digits. >> steve, you may have heard sara and i talking about the press conference and asking her what she expected. i'm curious to get your perspective. is this the most consequential press conference in a while and where are you going to be perhaps most focused? >> i thought you meant physically i'm going to be raising my hand from my seat asking a question. i'm afraid a lot of reporters are going to want to ask about the blame game here. and he has a perfect deflection to the question about who's to blame. he has the review he's doing of the silicon valley bank situation that comes out may 1st. i think he's going to defer a lot to that. i think the focus is where we've been talking, the conflict between the inflation fight and the impulse that comes from banking. that's where i'm going to be focused.

i'm focused, by the way, guys, i don't know if we have the pictures of the wall that i had earlier. there's five fed freshmen voting this time around. up until now it hasn't been any distinction between the hawks and the doves. but right now there might be. it may not show up at this meeting in decent. but it could show up in volatility or call it a wide range in the dot plot. so you have -- i don't know if i can do this off the top of my head. but you have barr and goldsby, and logan and two others, who i'll come up with in a second and they 'only been at the fed for a year. all the last five months it's hawk hawk hawk. there may be doves who show themselves at this meeting p either in the dots or the months to come when things become a closer call. >> i think it'll be interesting, steve, whether he see decent if the doves are going to show themselves, if they end up

hiking. because obviously that's a signal things could be changing faster. >> here's a fact for you, sara. which is that we went back and looked at defense over the last four fed chairs. and the lowest percentage -- powell has the lowest percentage of decents. >> that's interesting. >> so he's a real consensus builder. >> i think he would have thought of that. >> he really -- he lines the folks up before the meeting. >> yeah. or maybe it's so obvious what to do. sam and steve, thank you both very much. appreciate it. >> my pleasure. down about 28 points on the dow. sectors are still in the green, including technology. momentum for meme stocks following a strong quarter for gamestop. testifying about covid vaccine price hikes. vaccine price hikes. he one of t

good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. ♪♪ for skin as alive as you are... don't settle for silver. harness the power of 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin. lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com.

welcome back to "squawk on the street," moving to oil and energy markets. oil prices affected overall by the weakened demand. they have been weak lately declining today, $69.41, wti. our next guest believes it's

triggered by recession concerns and rate hikes. jeff, a lot of people follow your stuff. people were emailing me, jeff capitulates on $100 oil. why did you make that call? >> it was more driven from the financial side than from the physical side. i can say what we've seen so far is financial contagion we have not seen physical contagion. let me explain what i mean. we had a shot, it hits the rate markets. officially didn't spill into commodities, however commodities are highly levered and they did not have a great performance at the beginning of the year. and so they were hit significantly by that bar shock. that brought oil down and then triggered what we call a

negative gamma effect. big strikes at 75 and 70. through the 75 options dealers had to sell and sell hard to keep themselves neutral in that environment which ran you down to 70. it was not driven by fundamental shifts. fundamentally, you know, the impact at this point right now is very limited. the chain in which it could occur would occur through the regional banks and reduction in lending and on the demand side, that would be relatively small, because the lending is more on the industrial and supply side. you think about reasonable banks, they're focused on underwriting local bids. the consumer and demand side can be underwritten by the large national banks. going back to our price forecast change, this is a big scarring event. investors will be, you know, difficult to get them to come

back into the space. so what we did is we just took a longer point and convergence back to fair value in terms of getting the investors back in the space. so fundamentally, it was small i'm not going to say there wasn't a fundamental problem. russia kept production longer than expected but we only raised inventory a small amount. >> got it. bottom line you're still bullish. expect in the 90s in the next 12 months and that's a big jump from here. >> belower our end of year target and end of fourth quarter to 97. so we still see higher prices here. we think it's a longer path forward. i think the key message here is fundamentally we haven't seen a big, significant shift. i think a key point here is, physical markets are going to

have to drive this market higher. because i think that the investors, given the magnitude of this, it's going to be difficult to get back in. >> speaking of physical, china seems to be reopening and importing a lot of oil, as they obviously need to. when will that impact, to a certain extent, the price given it hasn't been lately for the reasons you just outlined, jeff? >> in terms of looking at physical indicators, things like the time spreads on oil, you know, their backward, the physical gray differentials have remained stable throughout this whole selloff. refining margin, things like gasoline and heating oil have actually increased over this time period, which tells you the in-use demand is hanging in there. not like the demand is coming down and pushing the product up.

oil is coming down relative to the products on the financial side. the product is remaining there. that's a stronger market, a deficit in june is the relative strength coming out of not only china but the emerging markets more broadly. when we look at the environment today, the demand out of china, it's there, and will continue to tighten the market and that's what's going to drive the physical market higher. >> so what's been the surprise for you? why prices have moved away from your forecast. why it isn't been correct so far? has it been that russia has been producing more? what's working against it? >> our downgrade occurred in two phases. one at the beginning of the year after that big weather shock. that basically took us from 110 to 100 on our price targets. and we also had more than expected russian production.

the russian production did not decline. some evidence it's declining now. but i think the key point is, big weather shock, and you have the excess russian production. the downgrade from 100 to, let's say, 94, at the end of this year, was driven by these financial dynamics. i want to say, there's still a russian factor in there and there is some weaker demand expectations out of the u.s. our economists did downgrade u.s. economic activity off the back of this banking crisis, a very small amount, three tenths of a point. there is something there. but the key point there is really the scarring effect of that sell off that's going to change it. you know, i've been doing this, you know, multiple decades. and i can say i have not seen. by the way, there was one other time i have seen this big of a

selloff, middle of the super cycle in 2006 and 2007, very similar environment. fed raised rates 450 basis points. remember the name amer quest. very similar dynamic. oil traded off from 77 to 52. triggered a negative event, the fed paused, china accelerated. i'm not saying we're doing that -- >> this is not that. this is not the global financial crisis we had then. >> no. we rallied. i'm saying we rallied during that time period. why? the fed paused, china was strong and oils went straight up. i like to say oil gets its liquidity from the u.s., the fundamentals from from china. so back to 2006, 2007, when the

fed began to pause you increased the liquidity back into the system at the same time china was going strong. so same as early '07. prices came off, why? because we had just experienced a 450 basis points rate hike, similar to today. china was accelerating. once the fed paused you ran through the downward, you know, pressure in prices. you started to go up. you went from $52 a barrel in january '07 to $147 in july of '08. >> a lot of trips down memory lane. >> 147. >> yeah. >> i think the key point here, the similarity, strong china, slowing u.s. again, going back to the point, u.s. gives a liquidity to commodity markets, china gives the fundamentals. >> right. and then ultimately rallies on

from there after the weakness. jeff thank you. a lot of people are talking about your call so thank you for coming on and going deep with us. >> great, thank you. still to come, another deep dive. this on nike. that's all you sara. it is under pressure. you'll find out what's going on. and then shares of gamestop, and then shares of gamestop, they a go. go brain. no, not that one. go this one. go optimizing data. go efficiency. go results. emerson's plantweb digital ecosystem is the brain for smarter, safer and more sustainable performance. go plant go. go boldly. emerson. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations.

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stock story of the day, nike, shared in the red, down 1.4% despite a beat on the top and bottom line. demand in china continues to see weakness as they worked through excess inventory and covid. the ceo is betting for a rebound in china. listen to the conference call last night. >> bottom line is we feel good about our momentum in china. and that's both q3, where you saw in a post lockdown

environment growth really pick up the second months of the quarter and our inventory is in a healthy position. more importantly, we looked going forward, the fundamentals of this market are good. >> very bullish, actually, on china. which was one of the parts of this report, david, that analyst investors can criticize it only saw growth of 1% in constant currency so it was negative if you take out the impact of currency. on the call, the cfo walked through december being rough because they were coming out of covid and everyone was sick, so traffic was down. january better, february better. so some of the problem and the holes that people are picking in the report, nike addressed head on. i hate to use the word transitory but that's how they painted them. but there was a lot of progress, inventory 43% last quarter, this quarter up 16% only.

and the cfo said by the end of the fiscal year they have one more quarter left they should be clean. so you're seeing upgrades today. barclays upgraded the stock because they were behind now overweight with saying things are inflecting for china, inventory. >> their direct to consumer, do you know where it stands overall of their revenue. >> a little less than 50%. and it has grown tremendously of course. this is going straight to consumers through their stores, the website, a turn that nike made before a lot of others. there's talk around the bullish as well. that's the same with foot locker. they've revived the nike relationship. and dick's was saying nike is one of their best performancers. looking for why weakness today. the stock has been up in the last six months, 26%. it's a relative safe haven right

now looking for companies with steady balance sheets with profitability, with strong growth prospects. looking for companies to position to a weaker consumer environment. and the truth is, as a consumer discretionary, i was looking for signs in the conference call and listening about what they expect and seeing on the consumer. they're not seeing the softness, not as much in u.s. and in europe, which speaks to, i think, their brand share and market their they have been able to grow as competitors like adidas have been under pressure. >> and bullish comments on china can be seen as a positive for the likes of apple or others with significant portions of revenue coming from china. >> the chinese consumer is starting to emerge and when you have a strong brand and investing in china, it's serving them well right now. and a lot of the estimates are going up. on guidance, they raised their revenue target for the year. so nike shares under a little

pressure but overall the analyst perception has been strong. as we head to break, shares of petco as well under pressure. stock hitting the lowest level since since re ♪♪ inner voice (kombucha brewer): if i just stare at these payroll forms... my business' payroll taxes will calculate themselves. right? uhh...nope. intuit quickbooks helps you manage your payroll taxes, cheers! with 100% accurate tax calculations guaranteed. you need to deliver new apps fast using the services you want in the clouds of your choice. with flexible multi-cloud services that enable digital innovation and enterprise control, vmware helps you innovate and grow. what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience? listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪

♪♪ alex! mateo, hey how's business? great. you know that loan has really worked wonders. that's what u.s. bank is for. and you're growing in california? -yup, socal, norcal... -monterey? -all day. -a branch in ventura? that's for sure-ah. atms in fresno?

fres-yes. encinitas? yes, indeed-us. anaheim? big time. more guacamole? i'm on a roll-ay. how about you? i'm just visiting. u.s. bank. ranked #1 in customer satisfaction with retail banking in california by j.d. power. i'm julia boorstin, here's your cnbc news update. in eastern ukraine, one person is dead and at least 33 injured after two russian missiles hit an apartment building. surveillance camera caught the moment when one of them slammed into the side of the building. president zelenskyy said russia is shelling the area with what he calls savagery. france's president wants to move quickly with the controversial pension plans. emmanuel macron said today the

move to raise the country's retirement age will be in effect by the end of the year to make sure the state run plan doesn't run out of money. in tokyo the cherry blossoms are in full bloom nine days earlier than usual due to warm weather. the first time the city has lifted a ban on gatherings to see them since the pandemic. back to you, david. >> thank you, julia. past an hour into the trading session. we have the s&p 500 in positive territory. been seesawing around with minimal gains or losses. let's get to bob with a look at today's action. >> highs today comfortably off 4,000 two sectors that are important, the regional banks they're stabilized. the bank index dropped 25% in five days two weeks ago but in the last few days it stabilized. so zion was up, flat now.

truist was up. that stability is important. the other is the big tech run we've seen. semis have had a great week. an amazing investor tay at nvidia. amd has been strong as well. these are the two biggest gainers on the s&p 500 right now. and apple and microsoft an amazing run, apple with a six month high yesterday, microsoft at a six-month high on monday. you see the big names here now moving to the upside. important to note here that microsoft's market cap is back over $2 trillion. look here. remember we were at $2.5 trillion, way back in december 2021. everybody talked about that. then it dropped a trillion dollars by the time we hit october 22, the bottom there, and today we're back over 2.03 trillion dollar right now.

and remember apple was essentially $3 trillion back in january 2022, it too lost a trillion dollars to fall below $2 trillion, that was back in january 2023, seems like so long ago but it too is back over $2.5 trillion. you put the two stocks together they're about 13.3% of the s&p 500. finally on the fed and the markets, i look at the pain trade. everybody, david, thinks the fed is going to hike and pause. the big story is around the pause. the pain tray would cause the greatest uncomfortableness. fed says we have the tools to address the banking crisis right now and we're not precluding any additional action. so he doesn't give them the explicit pause that they are looking for.

and that could cause some problems for the market. david, back to you. >> that's for sure if he's more hawkish. bob, thank you. let's continue the conversation with our senior markets commentator mike santoli. somebody who i will point out have made a point of saying microsoft and apple are a huge part of the s&p. >> they've been a huge anchor in a way, at least recently. one of the explanations why the market is here, above before svb started to buckle. i think the way to explain it going into the fed meeting is, if six weeks ago you quizzed people and said, would you make this trade? would you take the fed being finished around 5% as a terminal rate, which is now looking somewhere likely and in exchange for that you have a few bank failures, a little bit of instability in the financial markets.

a massive whip saw but ultimately it's steady state and the overall economy manages to hold together and that's the damage we have to accept, i think people would have made the trade. >> you don't know -- >> you don't. that's the whole point. >> this is 50 basis points of tightening what we saw. how do you know that? >> you don't know it. >> you can't. >> ams you don't have credible evidence one way or the other. maybe the fed does. maybe imply that. so it's always a what else question. you've seen air pockets in parts of treasuries. you've seen stirrings in many things like commercial paper. the fact that every lending institution in the country is likely to be calling in risk than extending risk right now, that's going to have a growth effect. but this is not a fed that's shown a habit of trying to anticipate that. the good part is the statistical undertow on inflation is going

to get strong the next few months. in the summer we'll be lapping the hot inflation numbers. so you'll start having more palatable year over year inflation data. that's not going to get them to target but it's going to help the idea of wait and see after this. i think there's a trap in powell saying we don't want to stop and pause and restart hiking again. he said that in response to questions before. and i think they want to have this very kind of strategized path. that's not always possible. you get rates up to the zone you think is appropriate and maybe restrictive enough and if events intervene you have to react. the final .80% said a quarter point, i think almost everybody would be relatively unsurprised if it was nothing. >> nothing would i think worry

people -- you see -- >> that's the other argument. >> it would not be good. >> i think the city na -- >> if there was commentary around it in the press conference saying financial stability is number one. >> of course. >> you don't think they would have dropped a trial balloon thinking of pausing? >> i think it was a close enough call coming into the week that i'm not sure they want to do that. i'm receptive to that argument and roger ferguson has said that, people on the fed have said you don't necessarily want to pause when nobody is expecting it. i think jason furman is saying the reason not to pause would be the market would take that as they're going to be cutting soon and almost the other direction, it would create the greater disconnect between intentions and what the fed is going to do. so give them the 25 and wait and see. >> financial conditions have tightened, but i don't know, the meme trade is back, unprofitable

tech stocks are back. bitcoin is surging. >> the fed fund rate is under the two year yield. so it's something that the fed ought to be done soon if the bond market has it remotely right. >> thank you, mike. >> check out the biggest leaders on the s&p 500, so far this morning, first republic back is on the list. on the list. it's not making a double git di good night! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪

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i'm so thankful to all of you and the 7,000 tiktok employees in in the u.s. helping us build this incredible community in america and around the world. this comes at a pivotal moment for us. some politicians have started talking about banning tiktok.

this could take tiktok away from 170 million of you. i'll be testifying this week to share all we're doing to help americans on the app and to inspire creativity and bring joy. >> that was the ceo of tiktok set to testify tomorrow as critics are calling for the u.s. to ban the app entirely on our shores. >> our next guest calls the ban bad policy and precedent. joining us is glen girstel. why bad policy and precedent, glen? >> the ban would be bad policy and precedent because it's going to hurt america internationally and domestically. it sets us on a slippery slope to wrong policy decisions. i agree that banning tiktok from government owned phones makes sense. there's a risk there we don't

want our military or members of congress or diplomats having their user data siphoned off to the communist party in china, that makes sense. but the general public using this app, teenagers somewhere doing dance moves i don't see the value of china obtaining that information, that case hasn't been made. there is a national security risk about disinformation, i appreciate that. but a full ban, doesn't, to me -- isn't really justified. it hurts us internationally. china is the one that bans apps, youtube, facebook, "the new york times," you name it, that's not something that america does. we want to look open and free. yes, it's a challenge but one we can manage. there are first amendment questions and legal questions and most importantly there are other solutions we can employ that would be less dramatic and still effective. >> somehow the critics in congress would seem to believe

and this is what i'm inferring, based on their statements that there's nothing you can do. that won't stop the chinese in some way from figuring out a way to use the app regardless whether it's sold here in the united states. they'll still find a way to spy on u.s. citizens. does that argument make sense to you? >> it does. but like most things in washington, there's a kernel of truth around -- around which is wrapped a lot of politics. we all know we face not only a significant -- we all know we face a significant adversary in the form of china. definitely have a well honed surveillance system, engage in cyber theft of information from us, trade secrets, and push misinformation, they're going to continue to do that if tiktok is in the united states or not. but we're going to do that,

there's an organization of the government looking at how to mitigate the risk. we can bring the risk down to manageable levels and i submit we have other things to worry about china. picking off and stealing scientists from our universitie engaging in industrial o cf1 o i think we've got other things to worry about,pnce we can >> and the list, is, i'mñiçó su longer than that. 150 million users in thisçó ñi country. how do you feel about the biden administration ordering tiktok i e. hhyr:uz may well get to that. congress is considering afá numr of billsñrxd that would basical give the administration the authority to go ahead and ban the app or forceok a sale.

president biden's ñicouré.v in at that t(point, i think he's going to try to get the best possible deal he could in one of the cfiuse1 approved arrangemen. and if the administration isn't satisfied that the risks are mitigated, they're going tow3 force bite dance to diñxsñi the app. or ban it completely, which, as i said, is probably very legally problematic. in this case, the bot line is this is not going to be resolved for many months. it will take months for congress to act, regulations have to ber implemented. even once a decision is e1made,t will be challenged in court unless it's a consensual deal. >> finally, you raise the larger issue and one thatr following for manya/; years, wh is chinese cyberçó espionage, f example, seems to continue jf unabated. you worked at the nsa. what are your expectations there and are we doing enough to combat it? >> well, when i was at the nsa,o it was one ofe1 our top priorities, and it still remains a top priority for our intelligence agencies. there was a brief lull where

secured some kind of understanding with his chinese counterpart that maybe china would hold off on serious industrial espionage. that lasted a e1very, very shor period of time. they're back at it.fá everything from trying to get information from our research universities to continuing to look at the probe, computer american networks, both government and non-government. that's going to continue and we e■ robust defenses against that. some time. thank you. >> thank you, thank you. >> coming up in!úhe nexáir "squawk on the street," we have cme group chairman and ceo terry duffy on his expectations for duffy on his expectations for the fed. ever better. it's when disruption hits

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you're looking at ai] live shot of the moderna lpceo. he's taking questions of a senate panel. this is over the company's planned increase in prices for the covid vaccine. meg terrell joins us.9-■ she has some of the highlights at least thus far. good morning, meg. >> good morning, david.o7o this is seen as a really important hearing, both for

moderna itself, but more broadly, for the drug industry. and focusingtó' the price of their medicine. senator bernie sanders, isxdñi chairman of the senate health committee. he's been a big advocate for >> the bond selling out there was different, includingó7! lat

this ñryear, that demand is expected to drop by about 90% for the vaccine. there are other complexitieç■wh jt the vaccine into a single-dose vial or a pre-filled syringe.i] the 60,000 pharmacies, hospitals, doctor's office they will now have to deliver to as opposed to the few government warehouses. it, but looking for some potential fireworks that's important for not just moderna, but for the whole okindustry. >> without a doubt, meg, thank you. meg terrell. that doesxd it for another hour- for th hour is of ♪ ♪ luxury exemplified. innovation electrified. with apple music seamlessly integrated. the all-new, all-electric eqs suv from mercedes-benz. see your dealer for exceptional offers on mercedes-benz electric vehicles.

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good wednesday morning. i'm sara eisene1 here with dom chu. we are live, as always, from the floor of the new york stock exchange. setting the agendat( for us tod, ever corp. vice chair ma kristaá guha ahead of one of the most anticipated fed decisions in a i while. >> terry duff also with us. his take on the extreme volatility that we've seen in the markets so far this month. >> later, an exclusive interview with the ceo of hershey, michelle buck, on investor day.