the curve. i would say thee1 qqone-year treasuries. phenomenal yield. nothing wrongñi with that. >> here we go.q before we go, one last check of the markets. session xdlows, downq about 100 points. the s&p down with the nasdaq. that s "the exchange" begins right nowá ♪ qt( hi, everybody. welcome to our special two-hour coverage of today's fedfá decision. i'm kelly evans with tyler mathisen.q.u—q an our awayqw3 f complicated rate decision of jay powell's tenure, balancing the heal í= fight against inflation. >> it is quite a needle to thread. will they hike, pause, pivot? that's the big question.w3 stocks are ever so slightly lower ahead of the bigokq momen the dow down just about 100 points, the ten-year yield at xd

3.576. the kb downq@xe1ñr1.5%.t( ádown more than 4% right now. actually 2.75%, it's come back just a little bit. we have full team coverage of this big decision and implications and they go for and wide. we'll geti] to all of it from t you're paying for creditñrñr ca plus, former atlanta fed president dennis fáxdlockhart. but let's take a step back and consequential for the markets, the economy, and more. kelly? >> tyler, thank you very much.eq so let's start way back at the beginning about threexú-earsz( today, whenfá the u.s. was thro intow3 a pandemic lockdown that sparked a deep recession. but the bounceback was also sharp, and most policymakersñio missed that fact until it was tootúñlate. precovid, the u.s. economy was

$21.çót(e1 trillion size. less than a year later, it was $22 trillion. by the second half of 2022, the please, washington.xd according to economistok christa warner, government stimulus topped $5 trillion. the fedexqqe1w3 tthat's $10 trin stimulus that we ended upt( wit massivet( inflation. the fed stopped calling it transitory but didn't hike rates but last fájune, inflation soarr to 9%, and rate hikes were 75t( basis points at a clip. in total, rates went from'c■ zea year ago to ñr4.6% today. q■ move in

history, which brings us to the bank%$■ crises. cash started leaving the banks to take advantage ofxd high ratñ elsewhere, forcing banks like svb to realize losses in order to pay oute1 deposits. svb collapsed in thet( secondqñ biggest bank failure in u.s. history. we hadxd signature, purchased bp rival. credit suisse imploded. first republ)!á neededr infusion. struggling banks tapped the fed $utt)yi]w3 all of this leads the fed in ar do powelli] and company keep hiking rates or pump the brakes we'll get the answer in less than anq hour. >> kelly, thank you. let's go straight to ouri] best. barry banister,q%ñfá and seth +

carpenter, global chiefq economist. fá rickjf santelli, dom chu. steve, you're live in washington and heading into the room with mr. powell in a few minutes. let's start with you. i > you know, we usually go into a probability of what the fed will do, hike, pause, cut. there is an 82% probabilit1 which is pretty good, but it leaves room about what is going to happen.lp the backside of this, because the market is baking in quite a few substantial rate cutst( lat this year. ió the fed, but since thefá bankin separate ways. we'll see whatfáq happens with summary of çóforecasts, which i it couldñ3[■a5■ñr goq up to 5.3p he fed could increase,fá

depending on whatr how he says it.i] does he raise his left eyebrow while he shakes his right hand. does that cause4sáhe market to wì% that c■ means is we need to be higher so there is an adjustment that is possibleçó hereçó if th] doesn't offer some 5a■uncertain or sense of dovishness from what this banking crisis will meanxd for the economy on inflation. >> rick, what are the markets saying to you right now, rickt( santel

the question of the difference between those two terms with regard to mortgages during the credixr crisis. but in the end, if the market dus quarter, lo

becausea5■ some of these fed fu contracts are doing a real about face toward the end ofñi the ok■ >> seth carpenter, what isb.■ y expectation for ta6eñu] if they pausexd but still show rates upward, how does the market take that? and what aboutlp the reversea5@= whatever i just said was? >> we started writing out aht■ bunch of possible decisions, what if they do this with one you quickly get tied up into lot.5■ ofu■j/x different ñioutc. what's key here is a few things. we think, as a baseline view, r(t&háhp &hc% the market, as rick was saying, has that mostly#ú$%■ in. i think the question really doeñ come down tor ?.qq+á

so they're probably going to come to the view it's mostly idiosyncratic and less systemic, so we have them hiking 25 basis points. it'sxd a real judgment call rig now,xd because it's hard. not enough time has passed to have what's going o■ with banks right now. >> so are we in a paradigm now where even if they ht■hike, lon rates are going to drop? >> absolutely.xdi] that is the price action we'll see in the bond 3w■market. if the fedçó does suggest highe( rates, it'se1 going to beq mosti front ende1 event, in our view. the back end is going to be much more focused on what happens to impact of this banking

crisis on the broadern■markets. it's going tow3c tighten the lending status and perhaps push earlier than whatñiko■ko■c under the circumstances, ko■it' beenç; a struggle.ym■ even if thee1xd sentimentçó çó >> barry, let me turn to ñryou.3 you're forecasting a quarterçó point hike, as mostñi pe let me ask you what a pause looks or sounds like.okñit( >> i think it will be very data dem q1ñ not just onú inflation data,ó[■ but financia stability. they'll also focus a lot less on tightening financial conditions. that's very counterproductive right now. eñ i'm going to be watcp

r(t&háhp &hc% curve.c and also theiru■ expectation of long-term rates. at some point they that.xdetcr(t&háhp &hc% that willñi affect valuation in great way. mostly, the data t(e1dependant pause, waiting onrwe won'tlp pause, waiting oi 3rdñi.'tlp 25 bas. >> perhaps the thing that stands about your position is that you believe we are in a secular bear market that will last through the decade. 1■ this a bear i]trap, bear market rally. i don't care if they callxd it ó banana. since last october,w3 we've bee bullish and callinge1 for the l 4,000s. that's still our target.r betweene1 41 and 42 by april.çó

the issue is, over the course of ten years, we will have doublex the earnings and endr sam point where we were at the start of 2022, which was 4800 in the s&p 500.ñilp we've hadok slack decades befor. we dide1lp one from 2000 to lp2d in the '60s. so it looks like that kindq of setup to us and we have to trade the range. what is makes you so sure -- depending on how much worse this credit issueçó gets, the econom does poorly, bitcoin,e1 all of these things, have an incredible decade. >> we just had one. it's hard to have backut the thing about it is, higher valuation would beñr required. i just don't see the room for that kind of parabolic valuation. some people think this is like the summer of '98, where you had

some financial problems.ok the fed cut.jf the growth had one morallypi'■ it. we have been positive onjf ■r ]q since last ñioctober.q nly two trades, cyclical versus defensiveñi and growth versus value. so tpeuz fourw3 quadrants you can be in. cyclical growth which is yourñ)% big tech. >> lpdom, let's turn to you and give us your perspective on what the stock market is doing todayó specificallyqfá how banks areñi performing and how they willxd liketd perform underñisáfá vari scenarios. >> the scenario, if it's notçó happening at an explicit level, it will be happeningq ate1 an implicit level. the idea here is that we talk about the data dependant fed, and everything else that'sñr happening with regard to themdv marketplace right now. develops where we see a deteriorating strain of economic data that shows that thefá u.s.

economy is slowing downñr marketedly, you have to reprice things overall. what is curious about thelp mart action, if you strip the banks out, overall, the market volatility fixture right now, at least for the equity f)qás, hy&9■ relatively calm. even during the depth,q if you want to call them those, short term ofçó the banking chriss ti to svb, tied toqfá what'si] hapg with credit suisse, the vic spiked to the same4hñ levels wew during the pandemic. what you are seeingñi is that w have a compression now of thexd the reason whyxd thee1qw3 actio aft■rrjjz is key is you have the statement, theq dot plot so to speak. they arexd going to bexdçó tryi make a prediction of what things will look like.q but there isfái]xd so much nois whether there is just not a lot of actiáluwv happening, because

people are saying i don't want the muscle memory that i have seen over the lastq decade plus has met when times are getting tough, there have been certain partsxd of thee1 marketjf that flock to. last year, people went to value■ stocks, oil and banks. high quality, balance sheetlp strong microsoft and apples of the wo@lf. apple and microsoft, there hase in thew3lp s&p 500. >> t-bill ande2rxd chilli] was whole theme of the investing universe until itlp blew upqñif banks. i'mlp curious, the fed is goin■o keep hiking, so i'm going to keep getter rates on my one year, two year. have we seen the peaks in this level or not? for the peopleñit( at home, is i

six-month xdreinvestment riske1t they can only get 3.5% on these? have we put in the highs?q >> that's a very difficult question tot( answe. there is a chance the f+

the meeting. we thank youe1q allqeh#or your today. coming up next, the rate hikes arexd starting to bite tho consumer with credit card rates at highs.çó we'll tellçó you where they mig be headed next. and withe1 about 45t(q minutes and withe1 about 45t(q minutes until the big fed decision, th lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. what if you were a gigantic snack food maker? and you had to wrestle a massively complex supply chain to satisfy cravings from tokyo to toledo? so you partner with ibm consulting to bring together data and workflows

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coverage of the fed meeting , ut(v the fed hiking rates, going from zero about a year ago tor "áip r(t&háhp &hc% qqcs having a big impact on american consumers.çó credit card rates are at record highs, while savings are on the decline. mortgages and auto loans much more expensive. let'sfá talk about all of that with my guests.ñit(oki] where mortgageu■ rates are, and where they may go from here. diana?lpe1 >> well, tyler, they'vee1 been a wildd months, for sure. hanging on. mortgaget( applications rose lp last week.t(çó purchase demand has been rising steadily,ok despite big swings mortgagee1 rates.t( the average rate on the 30-year fixed peaked last october at just over 7.25%,q stopping home sales in their tracks. it startedxdjf falling back in

december and january. yesterday, we got the read on existing home sales in february, which shot up anj♪ñ incredibleçq 14.5%, thet( biggest jump since the start1ó■ the pandemic. those sales were based on contracts signed in december and january, when rates had dropped back. now,q rates of course have started climbing again.u■ they took a brief u■fallback foa svb, but"n■ headed back up to around 6.5% as of yesterday. that rateq will li+"fv movee1 decidedly today after the feda5 announcement. we just don't know which direction. the fact that mortgage demand from home buyers has been rising $4h[k■mean,i] may mean that buy >> diana, thank you.u■ this< ■ has been so difficult t hear. what can you tell us? >> people are notp,■ happy abou the costr it's not just because of

)uqáu b.■rates.q here is theq latest data.zb1==-v compared to march of lastlp yea. considerably higher for new and used vehicles. by the way, thev it's higher than it was prepandemic, it's not dramatically higherñie1 compare ndemic. and then there's the question of transaction prices. this is the main complaint you hear from people when it comes to new= it costs too much. if i'm buying a new vehicle, my monthly paymentxd is likely to $730 approximately. that's the average of where itt stands right0l■ñr0l■ now. and that is up lp32% compared tñ prepandemic. but guess what? a lot is because, a, we don't see many compact cars out there■ sedansq are gone. ve. the cost of vehicles is ht■t(hi. therefore, the transaction pricr is higvé9ñmìáhp &hc% as far as jf5a■inventory, we ar seeing an increase here. so thatfá should mean we should

see lowerv pullback ofjf some sort over th next couples9

suvs, okñrcrossovers, and ú trucks. the average pickup truck, i haven't checked it in the last couple of months, i think it's like $57,000.c that's the average of what people are paying in this country fora5?hp pickup truck.z■ and by the way, y■tihear people all the time that say w3boy, if there was au■ vehicle for $39,0, i would buy iti] in a heart bea. you know what happens if a vehicle starts at $39,000? nobody walking out of the dealership at that ñrprice,çó yr pay $48,000, $49,000. we always upgrade, that's whyi] prices keep going up. >> thanks to both of you. kwj credit card balances hav rates are rising everywhere, thanks to theg home equity loans arec■i costin around 8%, according to bank rate.u■ u0,0-year mortgages, around pga. used car loans over 10%. and credit cards, they are over

for more, let's bring in greg mokcbride,ym■ò■w3i]e1 financial analyst. to ultimately affect consumers? are they going to cut back on very suspect, because -- [ inaudible ]ñiw -- more of the budget is impacted by qñiinflation, but a we have seenñr credit card balances goçóñr xdup, because households are increasingly having to lean onó[■ crediti] c for expenses. [ inaudible ]çów3 even if they're not q;vr'g cav& orçó homes -- [ inaudible ]xdq >> haveçó consumers -- i mean, what explains the rise in credit card balances? because during the pandemic,xd

obviously savings were rising. now what hasxd happened to flip that switch?ú >> i think you have seenñi balances going up dramatically, credit card balances, but savings have beençóxd coming!u■. there's a lot of talk about savings, but a lot of that is ko for the higher income households.e1 [ inaudible ]e1 -- a lot of that is ending up on credit cards,ñr and happening a the worst time with these high rates. >> where doñr we go from here? do you expect the ted to keep hiking, and can you talk about what you have seen in terms ofq people takingwio■ their money of banks andxd putting it to instruments that offer higher yields? >> there's such a xdyield, but online banksjfxd are paying 4%,

right now. with the dropoff of treasury yields, there is not an advantage óip r(t&háhp &hc% [ inaudible ]r >> xdright. in other words, are you seeingx any slowdown -- i guess let me ask it this way, are you seeing now thate1 people have to ratch upq yields everywhere wasok thee competing for deposits or no? >> e1no, it's still isolated. we have seen some of the smaller community orçó regionalw3 banks they have bumped up deposits in re#wq■ weeks. even there, still very much the exception. >> very interem4%ng.ñr greg mcbride,%rp'k you for checking in withçóq-umn÷ we're counting down to the big fed decision at the top of the hour. the major averages are lower right now. the dow started the hour around sessionlpi] lows. but game stop is oksoaring.w3 let'sñi check back in with domic chu.

what can you tell us?xd >> here is your marketñiçóçó re right now.t( as you point out, we have lost a lot of people in the markets overall. we are driftingi] lower, althou it'sñrfáwsr fractional. still that wait and seexdqe1e1 mentality t. the dow down 130 points. if you look where the sector dynamic is, it's all over + ■ place.xphr(t&háhp &hc% the relative leaders so far in trading today have been in certaini] places in the economy like consumere1 staples. very differente1 ends of the ri spectrum. some ofñr the biggestçnaggards e like energy down half a percent, and real estateq down fá1.5%,ehñ so anw3 interesting mix developó as traders jockey for position. we saw gainse1 yesterday, but first republic bank ise1 down 4

right now. charles schwab, down 4%, as .19rles schwab, down 4%, as pnc financial and u.s. bank corps, both thesexd stocks gotj called topxd picks this morning. andñlthe regionfáal banking etf doss#2% today.q theñr original game stop shares up 41%, off the best levels of a profit being turned for the first time in two years. but these shares, volatile forç sure, but watchp(t= 41%. >> thank you very much, dom çóc. stilt ahead, we're going to goñi to capitol hill. a top member of the house financial services committee is calling for the government toçó temporarily ensure all bankñixd

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yp&egulators have backstopped t banks, but onee1 congressman sa it'sfá not enough.

oner the governmenñt to ñrensure eve bank deposit in the country to system. banks for decades. after 30 yearsewand a community banker himself, he says a ok broad-based guarantee could be the move to stop other banks from going under. let's bring himi] in 5a■fáó[■no. a ranking member of the subcommittee on consumer protection. congressman, welcome.çófát(e1 >> thank@■ou. >> so youfá really have a troubles. people will say we can't afq))d to insure every tcjdeposit, butw do you think such a system like this would work?ñri] >> well, a possible scenario of ways to minimize some of the deposit movement that's out there. you know, i said a 30 to 60-day

period might give us a chance to get a goodxd handle on the dept and breadth of our problem.ìáhp% it's one of the tools in the toolbox for the regulatorst( to think about. congress. ■á$rp+e to do this. but i think we sawt( in the 201 2012 time frame, it sends we need to have the data at thi■ point_ñt(u■ to understandqr)q) l is a viable solution or not. other things we couldxd do, but this solution ist( something th could beq considered. they used to have the data to show the amount of deposits th(—q moving, who they're moving from and to. >> right. so i think the broader question is, do you thinkq enough has ben done by regulators to instill confidence in the banking system?çóçó >> fáwell, i think theyw3lp sta off real well. they didn't reallyçóçó know the depth of the ex/oblem.

there's a tremendous liquidity problem. flowed from banks last week. another 160 i believe it was from the federal reserve facility. close to $400 billion that flew into the system to provide the0 week before, to be able to shore up the banks, givethem the protection they t(fáneeded. we need to get the datat( from e fdicq to understandzv■okt( wher deposits are fleeing from. >> didn't we dosá what we are st of proposing in the 2008 banking crisis, ie, insure depositsñr above $250,000 for a temporary period,u■ and whaz@$m"át effect then? >> yeah, that's what i alluded ( to. back in august of 2009, the fdic at thatt( time had the authorit

to do p,■this.v anj( dodd frank,t(q we took tha authority away andi]d ourselves andi] extended it int 2012. only congress has the authority to put this back in place. so, again, it's ap,■ toolok in toolbox of thefáñi regulators t we wan,d to -- ifñi they reques, it's somethingu■ we should consider at this point, we"n = the data to show if it's necessary, and what kind of a i think the amount of liquidity shows that we do have a problem, and isé@■ this a viable tool? i don't know. fi out. >> would there be -- would you back any form of expandedq guarantees here? and does this have to workçó through congress where we see something like a two-year unlimited cap or what do you think the right level would be, $500,000, $1 million, wouldzv■ depend on the client, the bank? óyñ that's going to beq-fleshed out by congress, obviously.é@■ i know the mid-size bank d-4a=1

two-year guarantee on everything.'a% personally. but if we can sit down and figure out -- again, it's important to know the deptha5■0 right solution. again, this is -- whenjf i was asked this question ten days ago, my response çówas, if we have -- if we have the problem that we think we have, this may be a short-term solution to give us time toz6dthinkñr about it. is this the right solution today? i don't think we still have the data. but we do see from thet( liquidp problem, from last week's t( investments byyjuhe federal hom t federal reserve, there is a problem there. so, again, if we get the right data to show the depth oflp the problem, andñi where the proble islp manifesting itself from, tn i think we can design a solution for that, that is going to work, and maybe the liquiditylp with ] ways that were manifesting itself last week.xd

m%9 so we'll but i thinklp we're in a periodf time where wer everybody is fine. it's verynb■ solid. but obviouslyñi it's under stre right now as a result t(of, numr one, and number two, because of this banking situationu■ where we ha some of the banks upsidet(ñ dow with investments versus theirñi liquidity problemsfáñi they hav the bank. so it's a situation< ■ they neeo be careful with. >>ñi what do you think -- havin been on the inside of the banking system andñir think went wrong? what did the regulators or supervisors miss, and why?i]q >> well, one ofó[■ the basic tenants of being a regulator, you look further, there is spread of risk on their çóxd q5qm1ñ and you look for concentration of credit,

silicone valley bankzv■ checkedl three and nothing was done. that'st( pretty basic. this is a large bank.fá mosti] largexd banks have an exe watches andko■ monitors this st. what are they doing, drinking coffee andxd sleepingq doughnut? somebody was asleep at the ht■ switch. we do know frt8 a "new york times" article that there was some regulatory concerns about this, but nobody took any action. >> including the monitors.w3o kpmg signed off on this ten days before it collapsed.p,■ >> well, 5a■çóxñagain, this is this environment, this is a teaching moment for everybody in the services industry right in this day and time, in this environment where you have on some other sociale1 media websi or platform, and beginçó to tal about taking moneyok out ofñr b

and perpetrating a run. remember, this bank lost çó$42 million over a period of çóhour. $42 billion over a period of hoursñ■ñiw3ko■ so this is something that every bank is going to have to take into consideration when they look into the okw3portfolio, an every regulatorçó will have to can happen if thereok is a run the bank, if this situation exists inñi other banks. thisi] is a new thing that■k pe will have took take a look at. and i'm talking to my own colleagues about this saying'p+ that hasn't syt(eneh

trouble. q%9 situation, and we are going to have to think in different terms. hank you for your time ñrtoday. still ahead, sppr)jh expanded fdic 'v'ui9ñ depositors at one online bank might be breathing a little easier. the news pushing sharesçó highe the news pushing sharesçó highe making it one of the beste1 only at vanguard, you're more than just an investor—you're an owner. we got this, babe. that means that your dreams are ours too. and our financial planning tools can help you reach them. that's the value of ownership.

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childhood without food is unimaginable. get fed up. call us now or visit getfedupnow.org today. welcome back. some of the banking problems, but take a look at shares of sofi, in the green today after tpu■ expanded some of the fdicq insurance they are offering depositors. chris e1tina, how can çósofi xd increase fdic insurance? >> it announced today all checking ande1 savings account n access up to $2 millionlpe1 of

insurance versus the standard $250,000 that we have been talking about. so let's just say you happen to haveubz$2 million to your nameed you want it all insured. previously, you would have had to create eight separate bank accounts at different financial institutions. but sofiw3 is saying now you ca stick all of your money with e1] million. they can do that because they havejfxd par++%uu)u$ 12 other banks to(a■ create the w3ñisofi insurance iz"uuju)y higher fees. rotational basis, and this is a question that i asked e1qqsofi, they were respondiraq=juz before the show. i said if i happen to have $2 million in sofi and another $250,000 at lphsbc, will i get insured beyorñ■ $2 million? they said no. regaining trust within the

banking system we are seeing banking system we are seeing2 >> it's a y)jubig move, at( hig profile one. it almost gives people less clarity on whether their money is safe, and which of those 12 banks might be holdingi] it, an if the banksjf can rotate. i don't know if that's -- maybe that's why the appetite is going. maybexd people want more information.fá >> i guess for this particularw situation, they're saying that if you puuó your money in t(sof you're insured5 so that's adding confidence. so they will rotatexd out. i'm just not sure of the time frame. investor also have to pay ñie1 attention. >> t(exactly. sofi ?pf about 2% on the day. coming up, we are les] than 15ok minutes out from the fed's decision, and"n■ former atlantad president dennis lockhart says (woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business. unlimited premium data. unlimited hotspot data.

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welcome backfá to a special edition of "the exchange.v the most important fedíhocksion in recent memory now less than

15 minutest( away. and one former fed presidentjffd have two options and he thinks one is looking increasingly likely. joining us isñi dennis lockhartú formeru■ president =iq thew3 at fed. mr.b.■ lockhart, so glad you co what is the likelihood that you seet( a4 now? >> i thinku■ the 25 basis point move is most r i thinkok the markets pretty mu have that right.b.■ but i actually think this is a very closeq call, and for the committee, it will befáñi a judt call, and verytwimportantly, tyler, we the public don't have access toñi all the information that the comm] ■ is poring over yesterday and todayd their decision. and that information, of course■ pertains2wz the -- theirt( assessment of thefá vulnerabili of the bankingçótñ■ system, an—%

whether this isu■ going to be something that stabilizeslpñi quickly or could continue. i thinkñiym■ the decision revol around your answer to that question.5a■

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