the failure to acknowledge the banking crisis is striking. recent developments are likely to result in tighter crerrk■t( o conditions, that's a nod but a pretty weak nod. the implications here is that they're dealing with a crisis.lp

on the inflation number, i'm no1 surprised by that. inflation isñi comingñie1 down, it's coming downt(lpi] steadily. it's coming down very steadily. it should have pivoted to a much more neutral stance. but it is a little bit more hawkish thançó i thought. butqñi talking about firming changes in rates, and the year overçó year has fallen for eigh

consecutive months. unless they say they'reok makin progress against inflation, it's getting harder and harder to pivot without sounding like they'relp pivoting. >> katie, do you agree? >> i thought they were going to raise 25 with another 25 to come, but it focus on credit and not financial stability as being the transmission)q last few weeks. and credit was getting tighter before this recent bout of volatility. and keepinge1 their options ope. i don't think sáe■ have the ability, really, to raise a red flag onmy■e1 financial instabil without undermining the confidence that has startede1 t come back into the market.

>> and we should add, as we watch the market's reaction, about almost 100 points, i want to go to you on this, that the fed has to do what the market has priced, that they like to leave people with a sense of where they're going, and fulfill that. as a result, everything is hunkd dory. but the rate hike still broke stuff. i don't think weñi need tofá be myopic, looking at the reaction, it will play out for quite some time.jf >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. there's a lot of uncert7)u+k what is the impact of the rate hikes that have happened in the banking system. they've been impacted, and for sure it's not the last thing that will be impacted. and the fed has rightly said about the uncertainty about how

that plays out. i heard in the statement, the fed doing more to acknowledge that uncertainty than in the past. i think that's realistic,+■ the dlu'certainty there. and i think theçó line that ste read about the banking system is safe, i think the new addition to theó[■ statement, i could be corrected there, that's something we're going to hear a lot more about. the market over the last few weeks has beenq trading primariy onw3 the financial stability question. so i think that's a new addition i think that's what we're going to hear about in the pressokñif conference.fá they need to restore confidence in the financial fásystem. the order of business is really on finansi1■ u■ámh■ñrñistabilit >> you would agree that the u.s. banking systemt(xdw3 is sound a

resilient, thoseñr would not ha been reflected in previous statements. what stood out tookñ you, if anything? >> two things.

but we'll hear how powell explains firming, and why that is different from ongoing rate and i feel like he's trying to have it ai] little bit both way and i don't know if he's getting away with it we have this huge thing coming down theq pike,w3 tighter finanl conditions. which will doc a lot of bad things to the economy, it's right there in the statement. itçóxd strikes me, if all thefás in the first paragraph were true, then the things about the policy in the second paragraph "-!q■ to have been a little bit more e1dove-ish. >> a' have it bothlp ways, because th really screwed this up in more than two ways,ó[■ with the hiki too aggressively.

there's a little bit of tone fáñ conversation. because i don't know, does anybody look at the banking issues as something standalone? these are just more negative feedback loops to thexd tighteng cycle. whether it's inflation, bank stresses, mounting jzáqp&ized losses through accountingt( issues, geopolitics, inverted yield curves, not even the big picture is included.lp think about all the supply chains that have reconfigured, they're going to be morexd inflationary.fá that's something to consider as well. we didn't see big pops whenfá china fáre-opened,w3 because ths big questionfáok marks all over china. there arei] so many issues, i think the issue is, everybody knows the fed should stop here.

whether they do4-j they don't, that's them having it both ways that we're now witnessing. these issues are here, and they're going to remain here until the market gets used to this new aroma in the room called rate normalization. >> and they still have the terminal rate at 5.1%. >> yes. and to steve's point, maybe when they changed it to firming, the nice thing about firming, it could be one increase,e1 two, three increases. if you don't do that -- interest rate w3increases or increases, u can get away from the singulare plural withñiu rate hikes. the market doesn't believe that, and ic don't either.

what we're seeing, you have conditions before this happened. i can't believe that after the last three weeks, banks will be more willing to lend, or small businesses will look like a better proposition thane1 a few weeks ago. so i think it we'll have a lot of economicf■1 tightness as the year goes on.t( and i think the■nú fed is betwea rock and a softe1 pricelace. they should just stop, and not try to micromanageq the economy. >> exactly what rick just said. katie, let me turn to you. david quibblesñiq with the rated 5.1%, do you agree? >> it may not ge$d there in may. the fedq could skip açó meeting and assess the data with the

ratexd hikes. but until and unless inflation starts to fall much faster, i don't think they can get away $ it. and powell will0.=1e■ take the opportunity to strike the separation between the financial instability issue and the inflation issue. and making sure that we all recognize, you can't have one u)á$u$e other. can't have one and they have separate tools to addresse1 each. i think the fed has to remain really committed on this issue, and there willxd be a bias towa tightened policy and hikinge1 rates. >> and the curve ise1 back to 5 basis points.xd would you describe this as the sequence that playst( out as we head into that kind of an event, or this is a bullish signal for

stocks or the economy? >> steve points out, one way it can be confirmed is unchanged rates. or ift( the rate e1remains rela to market expectations for a cut. the fed will be deliveringe1 tighter policy than is discounted in the markets, and that would be considered a firming as well.e1 there's a lot of uncertainty acknowledging that, and it's out over the next few meetings. my final observation, the yield curve isr forward, there is aok disinflationary process under way. tighter conditions from the creditñrñiçóçó crunch, it's a m time. but çóthat's what the yield cur ise1 telling us, that process i under way. it's a matter of time, and that's why yields are lower in

the future,-, atxd least in pri moments. >> dow isw3 down ten points rigá and the real job, thank you so much for your time today. we'll hear from chair powell himself in about 13 minutes from now, 2:30 p.m. we'll take you there live when we'll take you there live when itt( begins. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. ♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this.

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welcome back to "power lunch." the fed raising interest points by ae1 quartetf of the percenta point. indicating thatw3 hikes are nea an end, as we await --e1e1e1e1qi

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welcome t(back. rj press conference, let's get some finalñ)hthoughts. mike, the dow is up ten or so, it's been back and forth. some people say, this was a non-event. what do you think? >> i would say it's an xdevent, largely as expected. i think the market is an acknowledge between a pause and the possibility of a hike down the road, or a hike today, ando %1 as they did, not a huge difference. i would imagine chair powell might not want to makep in the next hour. he wouldn't want the market to race ahead and say the fed is done, the fed is our friend

again, and they wouldn't want the reaction that they're overtightening, insufficiently attentive to the financial stability risk. the way he characterizes the level of alarm might be something to look for. >> right. what would you be watching as the press conference begins, and as this shakes out? >> the market has been this little up-trend. we were at 3,800e1 on the s&p lt week, we had ourok little comeback, now it's about the equal footing we're on now. i think he may be pressed about the dot plot. there are some inconsistencies. unemployment might be a little bit lower, it's much higher than it is right now. and still where we might be hiking, inflation is coming in a little hotter than we thought.

but i think this is the way you get thatw3 muddled message near the end, orxd transition point,f a cycle that is transitioning to something else. >> does that feel like we're coming close to tend of the >> yes. i think the sense of what the fed does is get ratesñr up as ft as possible, to the general zone that feels right for where we are. then waits to see if there's some adverse reaction. we got one. you know, there's some elegance tightening e1cycle. majçtñr you can soon declare so sort of victory on e1that. >> when youñr look intoxd thefá forecasts for 2024 and beyond, it looks like -- here com[3÷ powell. we'll defer to him right now. thanks. >> good afternoon.çóçó before discussing today's

meeting, let me address recent developments in the banking sector. in the past two weeks, serious difficultiese1e1 at a small num of banks have emerged. history has shown this can undermine confidence in healthy banks.xd federal reserve, working with the treasury department and fdic,lp took actions toe1 strenn public confidence in our banking system. all deposits are safe, with the support of the treasury, creating the bank term funding program, to ensure that banks can borrow reserves against assets at par.q this, along with our discount window, is meeting the unusualr

funding needs that somee1 banks have faced. and makes clear that liquidity is available. we will continue to closely monitor conditionsxd in the e prepared toe1 use all of our tools to ke it safe and sound. and we're committed to learning lessons from thatxd episode, an working to prevent episodes like turning to the broader economy and monito"= is high, and the market continues to be tight. we understand the hardships, and we are committed to bringing inflation down to our 2% e1goal. price stability, without it, th1 economy does not work for anyone. in particular, without price stability, we will n'm achieve (

sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.e1çó the u.s. economy has slowed significantly last year, with real gdp rising at 0.9%. consumer spending have picked up thisjf quarter, of that may reflect the effect of swings in the weather. ine1 contrast, housing sector activity remains weak. higher interest rates and output growth also have ane1 effect. growth to continue, as shown in our projections. 0.4% this year, and 1.2%e1 next year. well below the medianfáe1f&d■ e of the normat■á growth rate.

and nearly all see the risks to gdp growth as weighted to the downside. but the labor market t(remains tight.t(e1 employment rising by an average of 351,000lp per month over the laste1 three months. unemployment in february, 3.6%. the labori] force participation ratee growth has shown somee1 signs o easing. with job vacancies high, labor demand exceedsw3 the supply. wáoç expect conditions to come better5a■ balance over time. the median unemployment projection is5a■ u■xd2.5% at thf this year, andjf 4.6% at the en

of next year. over the 12 months endingrír @r% january, totallp pce prices ros core pce rose 7.4% excluding those. int( february, the 12-month chae is 6% in pce. inflation hasw3 moderated somewt since the middle of last year. butr readings indicates thatçó inflationlp pressures continue remain high. the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go. and is likely to be bumpy.t(i]

despite elevatedw3e1 inflation, longer term expectations remain ñ the fed's monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to provide maximum employment and stable prices for the american people. my colleagues and iu■ are acute1 aware that inflation presents large problems, with a rise in the pricesg we're attuned to thefá risks of inflation, and we're strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective.t(çó we're conti) significantlye1xd reducing our

securities holdings.e1 since our previous -- economice indicators have generally come in stronger than expected. we believe, however, thatjf eves in the z[-%9 past two weeks are likely to result in tighter creditñi conditions for households and businesses, which in tuz economic outcomes. it's too soon to determine the effects, and too soon to determine how monetary policy should respond. as a result, we will noi] longe indicate -- we anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate. we will closelyómo monitor incog data, and assess the effects on economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. and our policyqu■ decisions wil

reflect that assessment. based on what that participant judges to be the most likely t( scenario, if the economy -- the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 1.3% this year, 4.3%lpe1 next year, and 5t the end of 2025. these are largely unchanged, and not a commitment or plan. if things change, welp willw3 at the plan to match our goals. we will continueok to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on thefá totality of the data and the implications for the outlookw3 of the economy an inflation. we are committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2%

goal and keeping expectations well anchored.5a■ restoring price5a■ stabilityu■ essential?;■ to achieve maximum employment and stable 5a■prices. we understand thatu■ our action affect the country, and we at the fedxd will do everything we can to achievejf maximum employment and price stability goals. thank you. i look forward to your questions. >> thank you. howok confident is the committe that the recent stuff that we've seen is contained atñi thisçó p and that it hasfá ceased? >> thanks. our view is that the banking system is sound, resilient, with

strong capital liquidity.q we took powerful actionsxd that demonstrate the banking system is safe, deposits are safe and stabilized. the last thing i'll say, we're d the last thing i'll say, we're d undertakingw3 a tháuhr'ternal review. >> given the stress and uncertainty, how seriously was a >> we did consider that in the days running up to the meeting. you see the decision we made, which i'll sayúar couple of things about. it was supported by a very strong consensus. really, it is that the data on inflation and the labor market came in stronger than expected. and before recent events, we were going to continue with rate hikes. a few weeks ago, it looked like

we needed to raise rates. we'reé@■ committed to restoring price stability,fá and all of t evidence says that if the public has confidence, we will do, we will bring inflation down to 2% over time. it's important to restore thate confidence with our actions as well as oure1 words. we also assessed that the events of the last two weeks aree1 liky to result in tightening of conditions, and the demand on the labor market and on inflation. this would work in the same direction as rate tightening. you can think of it as being the equivalent of ajfq rate hike, a it'sw3e1 our decision to move a with the 25c-point base e1hike,d

to move from some policy firming may be appropriate. going forward, as i mentioned, in assessing the need for further hikes, we will be focused on the çóincoming5a■ dad evolvingu■ ouulook, and lookingp the effects of credit ñu■ >> can youçó explain the difference between ongoinqi rat increasesg does firming imply a5a■ rate increase, or could policy firm without increasing rates? >> no, i thinkfá it's meant to refer to añi policy rate. i would focus on the words may andxd some, as opposed to ongoi. we clearly -- what we were doing there was taking onboard, trying to reflect the w3uncertainty abt what will happen. it's possible that this will

turn out to have very modest effects on the economy. in which case, inflation will continue to be strong.fá in which case, the% th will look, might look different. it's also possible that this potential o,j.uq'ing will contribute significant tightening in credit conditions over time. and inw3 principle, that means that monetary policy will have less work to do. we don't know.qi] [ inaudible ] >> our monetary policy, we'rew3 focused on macroeconomic outcomes, on this potential credit tightening,u■ and what c that produce in the way of tighter credit conditions. when we think about the situation with the banks, we're focused onñit( our financial stability tools, in particular our lending facilities. the debt -- sorry, the discount window, and also the new

facility. >> next?5a■ñrfáçóv >> in yourfá testimony two5a■yn ago, you indicatedñre1 that you thought the terminal rate would be higher. can you talk about to what extentçó your forecast or that your colleagues today on credit availability, because of the stress in the banking sector, or are you waiting to see it in the data before you fáincorporate tt potential tightening into your forecasts?y) rñ we just came fr meeting, and the people chu write the minutes will be very carefully counting. but i heard a significant number of people saying they anticipated there would be some tightening of credit conditions. and that would really have the same effects as ouz3 policies d.

and that therefore, they were including that in theirg e)pt turned out not to be the e1case, you would need more rate hikes. some people dide1 reflect that their forecast. i think,xd remember, thisé@■ is days ago. that is just so recent. and people, you know, it's very difficult. there's so muche1 uncertainty. december was a gooz( placeñço t( start. and we wound up with very similar outcomes for december. and in a way, the t(early, the data in the first part of the first fivet(çó5a■ weekse1 of th pointed to stronger inflation andxdxd stronger labor markets. and thisxde1 points to the possibility of creditñr conditis tightening affected that. >> and talking about if the funds ratee1 w$al be enough to

sustain the kind of tighter financial conditions withoutñi doing significant damage to the banking sector, have you talked about changing the reservew3 requirement, selling assets, as at( better way to achieve tight cusgitions that don't accelerate deposit erosion fromq banks? >> we knowe1 we have other tool q;á we think our monetary policy works. and one of the many banks, our rate hikes were well-telegraphed, and our banks are ready to handle them. >> i wanted to ask, you, with the fdic, the treasury, and the fed board,t(q you allowed was that purelylp a confidence

issue, or was there a concern that there would be some kind of contagion from the failure of these banks? specific banks, but about the risk of contagion to other banks, and to the financial markets more broadly. >> and can you speak to the role that you will be playing in the fed's internal investigation? >> vice chair barr is leading that review. he's responsible for it in hisx capacity as vice chair for supervision. we -- i realized right away that there was goingxt a review. the question we're all asking ourselves e1was, how did that happen? so what we did was, early monday morning, wee1 sat down, said les do this. and he was going to lead it, in

his capacity. my role was to announce ñrit, a i got briefed on it, but i'm not involved in the work of it.ñiv >> chair powell, i want to go back to your february press conference. you mentioned0l■ the process wa greatfully under way, or th. is disinflation still happening? maybe it's a feature, not a bugp but, yeah, absolutely, the same( the story is intact. it's really three parts, right? inflation has beenw3 coming dow for six months. proceeding more slowly than we would like,fá but certainly proceeding. housing e1services, we continueo see the new leases signedñie1 a

much lower levels of inflation. 44% of the core pce. in february, and not now, we have a sign of progress in the housingñr services sector. that's something that will have to come through softening demand, ande1 perhaps some softening in labor market conditions. so the story is pretty much th- same. i will say the inflation data that we got, it pointed to j >> i was curious why you don't see more coming from the credit crunch. that seems like something you may welcome or expect. is it because youu■ don't know,r you don't want to have another >> it's really of not knowing at this point. there's a great deal of literature on the connection between tighter credit conditions, economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

a very large?;■ body of literat. the questionfá is -- that's the issue.c p'd we don't see it yet. people are publishing estimates, but it's very kindñi of rule of thumb guesswork at this point. potentially quite real and that argues for, you know, beingçó alert as we go forward and think about further ratee)■á hikes fo, we'll be paying attention to the actual and expected effects from that. thank you for taking our questions.e1!u■i]ñi i wonder if you could talk a little bit. i know you've got your internal review coming but what you think happened with oversight at silicon valley bank and whethe it suggests somethin aboutéxk[ supervisionfá needs to change going forward. how 9■ the american people confidence there aren't other w3

weaknesses out there in the banking system given this got missed as you noted?i] >> let me think what happened. at a bas bank managemente1 failed badly. they grew the bank veryt( ts7çq. they exposed it to significant liquidity risk and didn't hedge that risk. we now know that supervisors saw these risks and intervened. we know that the public saw all this. we know thatxd svb experienced unprecedently rapid bank run so this is a very large group of connected depositors,e1 connect group of concentratedt(xdq depo] faster thanq would suggest so a for us, so for our part, we doing a reviewq of supervision my only interest in is that we

identify what went wrong here. how did this happen is the question. what went wrong? we will find that and then make an assess so it doesn't happenxd again an implement those policies. it would be inappropriate for me at this s uz to offer my views on what the answers might be, you know, i simplyzckn't do thié■ the vice chair is leading this and i think he is testifying next week so that will be up to him. so that's really wherexd auñis. your transparent. it is clear to your last question, clearly we doxd need strengthen supervisiont(jf and regulation and i assume that, you know, there will be recommendations coming out of the report and@rt plan on sup&%$q%9 their implementation. >> and the final point, you know, can we feel confident these don't exist elsewhere given they got missed at this bank? >> theset( are not weaknesses

broadly through the banking system but an outlier in terms of its percentage of uninsured deposits and in terms of its holdings of duration risk.çólp and, xdagain, supervisors did g in theret(ok and they w xq asxdp know, obviously, you know, they were on this issue, but nonetheless,xd this still jf happened. so that's really the nature of the review is to discover that.d >> michael mcgee from bloomberg radio and television. you've been consistent in sayinq they would raise ratesxd and holding them there for quite some time. following today's decision the markets have priced in one more increase in may and then every meeting the rest of this year they're pricing in rate cuts. wrong from the fed, or is there something different about the way you're looking at it given you're now thinking that moves

mightñi be appropriate as oppos toc lpongoing? >> so we+■ publishedt( an sep t as you will have seen and it shows participants expectr relatively slow growth, a gradual çórebalancing and demand in the labor market in that most likely case if thak happens, 35er79s don't see rate cuts this year. they juç(l don't. i would say as always, it will reflect what but that's not our baseline expectation.fá >> if i couldfá follow up and a as you look forward intoe1 the rest of the year here, are youx saying that what you seeq and te based onw3 being -- it willq be it levinedñre1qxd you don't kno )uájjuo happen. how should the fed think about

howk/ r it is from the terminal? >> purposes of ourxd monetary poli we're looking at what's happening among the banks and asking is there going to be somo tightening and credit conditions then we'zl thinking about that aslp effectively doing the same hat substitutes for rat in a way.jf so the key is we have to have -g policies got to be tight enouó■ to bring inflationv it doesn't have to all comemy■ m rate hikes. it can come from tighterxd cred conditions so looking at -- and jsjjt this situation will be sustained or howjf significant any of tho effects willxd be so we'll haveo watch. in thejfi] obviously at the end of the day ill do enough to br inflation down to i]2%. no one should doubt that. >> rachel seigel.g hi, chairñ;içpowell. rachel seigel from "the

washington post." thank you for taking our questions. i know we'vet( talkedxd about h silicon valley bank wase1 uniqu to a certain sector of the economy. but there's also growingq concen that theirlp financial stabilit risks are from the market and loans that will roll over next year and smaller regional banks disproportionately hold those loans. can there a risk th!( could mimic /q svb to banks disproportionately focused in commercial÷ realxn estate? >> we're well awarefá of the concentrations people have in i don't think it's comparable. the banking system is strong, it islr■ sound, it is resilient, is don'tok see that at all analogo to this.e1 >> would you be open tot( an5a■ independent investigation $e fed's probe? >> i welcome -- it's 100% certainty that there will be independent u■ko■ i that. so we welcome -- when a bankqw3

fails there are investigations and, of course, we welcomei] th. >> edwardñi lawrence from fox business.ñiq do you need help from theñi fisl side to get inflation down faster? >> weçó don't assume that. we don't give advice to the fiscal authorities and we assume that -- we takexd fiscal policys it comeso]ojf our front door. stick it in our modelokok alongh a million other things, and we have responsibility for price stability. the federal reserve has responsibility for that and nothing is going to change that. soe1 and we willok get inflatio down to 2% in time.i] >> and if i can follow on that, bute1 they're working -- the spending that's happened is working against what you are doing so prolonging inflation? nthe impuls because spending was,fá of ñico pandemic and theni] as the pandemic programs rolled off,

spending actually came down so the sort of fiscal impulse ist( actually not what's driving actually not what's driving inf!i+%=9ju now.e1 it was at the beginningd xerhap part of what was drivingw3 the story now.t(q >>. >> neil powell withñi axios. first, why is the new bank funding facility donejf under emergency 13-3 as opposed to discount of thepzyy changing th discount window and second depositors and whyxdñiñr there' billion supporting añju)u guarantee. >> sure. so 13-3 seemed like the right -- we have a little more flexibiltd■ under section 13-3.■ we've done quite a lot under the discount window as well. we needed to do a special so did it under t(13-3.38rr(t&h%

really no magic to that. it's only available ine1 unusua circumstances and has to meet certain requirements but it seemed to be the right place, so with the fdic we're lending to the -- ine@seffect, we're lendi to the bridge additional hikes orú your hands? >> we need to raiseçó rates higher. we will.

i think for now, ñrthough, we - as i've mentioned we see z likelihood of credit tighteninzy we know that can have an effect on the mkc=■ economy and demand and labor marketñr and inflatio and will watch to see whatfá th is and watching what's happening market sow3 we'llñi be watching of i]course, we will eventually get to tight enough policy to bring inflatioç that place. >> hi.ñr >> e1lphi, chair powell, kyle campbelle1 with ameri#w■ banker. i have a couple of questions about the balance sheet. first of all,x#rrzok curious at what point the financial supports that the fed is extending through the discount window and its enhanced lending facility might be atñi odds wit balance sheet and i'm curious e-